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The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?  
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Posted (13 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2196 times:

Hey guys!

Boeing has shelved its B 747X Program some time ago. However, they also stated that they would protect its ability to build a larger B 747, when customers indicate that there is a need.

But I think sooner or later, Boeing will start pushing its B 747X a lot harder. Although they never took it seriously....

Actually, what I believe is that the B 747X Stretch is the failure, not the B 747X. Why?

The B 747X can carry 50 extra passengers than the B 747-400. And it is the world's longest ranged airliner. Therefore, there is a good chance that, when it comes to a point that the earliest B 747-400s need to be replaced, airlines may look into the B 747X.

I have spoken with a few Airline Operation Managers and they believe that the B 747X will take off some day. Airlines will probably replace some of its B 744s with B 747X, and the rest with B 747-400ER.

Comments?

31 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11153 posts, RR: 58
Reply 1, posted (13 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2095 times:

The oldest 744 is barely 12 years old. The 744 is designed to serve airlines for 25-30 years. It isn't even half way!

The 744 is still a new aircraft. What you have to also consider is the amount of flying hours. Not just the age of the aircraft.

In terms of flying time, the 744 is an EXTREMELY young aircraft.

A 5 year old 744 is about as old as a 3 year old 737.

The 744 still has a long way to go before airlines even begin making plans for replacement.

Therefore, its un-certain what aircraft will be used to replace the 744.

Maybe no aircraft will ever replace the 744. Maybe, airlines will order smaller 300 seat aircraft like the 777 to replace the 744.

Maybe, airlines will replace the 744 with the Airbus A380.

Maybe your right! They'll use the 747X IF it ever materializes to replace the 744.

Who knows, it is simply too early to start making predicitions.

Within 20 to 25 years, who knows what new aircraft will be flying.

Maybe Bombardier will have developed a 500 seat airliner.

Its too early to say anything now.



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 2, posted (13 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2079 times:

True. I agree with you.

The B 747-400 will remain in service for a VERY long time. At least for another 30-40 years.


User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11153 posts, RR: 58
Reply 3, posted (13 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2071 times:

Mmmmmm......30-40 years is pushing it. But anything is possible.

Just like the US AirForce is planning on keeping there B-52 bombers until 2030.

Regards.



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (13 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2067 times:

Well, there will be new B 747s coming out. Don't worry BA.

Boeing has stated that they will keep the B 747 Production line for at least 30 years.



User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (13 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 2069 times:

dezmond - do you have to regurgitate this exact topic EVERY month? I mean c'mon... HKG isn't THAT boring is it?

User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11153 posts, RR: 58
Reply 6, posted (13 years 1 month 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

Thats what they said 5 years ago.

However, its uncertain now. They might keep the production line for only 10 more years, or maybe even 40 years.

Its uncertain.

The 747 generally has an uncertain future, especially since the 777 has stolen many of the 747's orders.

Regards.



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineDennys From France, joined May 2001, 889 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2029 times:

unfortunately the 777 - 300 LR mifgt replace the 744s ... regards Dennys

User currently offlineN-156F From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2026 times:

BA- The USAF says it wants its B-52s until 2030. A few years ago, they wanted them until 2005. In a few more years, we'll all be beaming ourselves up, and the USAF will still be flying their B-52s.  Wink/being sarcastic

User currently offlineNotar520AC From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1606 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 1988 times:

I hope the -400s stay for a long time.

-Notar520AC



BMW - The Ultimate Driving Machine
User currently offlineBoeing nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 1963 times:

Guys, first of all, the 747 will NEVER be replaced. There may be another aircraft that suceeds it, but it will never be replaced.

I honestly believe deep down that the 747X will launch first as a cargo version first. Then, I think the non-stretch version will be the first version of the 747X pax airplane to come out.

My two cents,

Regards!!


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 1957 times:

The B 747 will never be replaced. You are right! The B 747-400ER as well as the B 747X will probably succeed the B 747-400.

But the 400 will live on for a long time.

As for the B 747X Stretch, I suppose Boeing will start selling it seriously when the market indicates a need for it.

My two cents!


User currently offlineAirlinelover From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 5580 posts, RR: 22
Reply 12, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 1955 times:

I think that when the B747X is finally pushed by Boeing, the first customers will be those like NWA who have had a long history with Boeing, and the 747. Yes, some will steer towards the A380, but a lot (in my opinion) will go with what has worked in the past- the 747.

Chris



Lets do some sexy math. We add you, subtract your clothes, divide your legs and multiply
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1929 times:

United may order it. So as JAL.

Who knows?  Smile


User currently offlineCatpac From Australia, joined Mar 2001, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 1916 times:

Boeing 747-400 is old. Yes ok, an airline can buy a new one today for some 150mil, but a lot of the design originates from the pre 1969....? Hence Cathay is replacing their 744 within the next five years, unless they might decide for an agressive upgrade.

I think that latest aircraft like the B777/A330/340, etc are much more reliable and environment friendly compared to the 747.

So I would doubt that many leading airlines will be flying the 744 after 2010, especially since new aircraft are coming out, like the B777LR, A340/500-600, A380,...an airline operating the 744 would find it hard to compete against more modern equipment that some carriers will be operating.


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 15, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 1910 times:

Cathay Pacific changes their mind from time to time. As you may know, it is very likely that, they will drop the A 380 in favour of the Sonic Cruiser, according to the CEO of Cathay Pacific. Therefore, the only aircraft which can fill up their flights from HKG to TPE/LAX/YVR etc would be the B 747-400.

They may order the B 747-400ER, or upgrade their B 747-400.

Besides, the B 747-400ER, as well as the B 747X have gone through massive amount of improvements. Therefore, they are able to compete with today's aircraft. Boeing said that their B 747X is as advanced as the A 380.

Just my 2 cents!


User currently offlineFlyTriStar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1907 times:

The Boeing 747-400 is still relatively new. With the launch of the Boeing 747-400ER, I think that Boeing would keep the production line open for at least another 10 years.

However, they forecast a much less demand for airliners in the 500+ seat market than Airbus, which has already launched their A380 superjumbo. I think that the A380 would only be able to make money by deploying it between large city pairs, and that all others would be served by the medium-sized airliners like the 777/767 and A340/330. Having these smallers ones allow more flexibility for the airline, as they can be switched to serve any type of city, and when capacity is needed on the majors, they can just add frequency. The A380 would be a money-maker only in the peak seasons.

So, will a formal replacement for a Boeing 747-400 be developed in the future? I don't think so. It would probably be eventually replaced by the A380s or the medium-sized airliners. If netiher are not the case, the 777-300LR would be able to take the place anyway...

FlyTriStar


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1904 times:

First, the B 747-400ER. Then B 747X. Afterthat we will probably get the NLA (Formerly B 747-700). And finally, we may get the BWB.

Who knows? The B 747 will be in production for at least 30 years. That's what Boeing has stated. They are very proud of the program and will continue to improve its Flagship.

Regards.


User currently offlineCatpac From Australia, joined Mar 2001, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1878 times:

United Airline,

The sonic cruiser is still only an imagination aircraft saved on Boeing's computer, so how can Cathay already dump their A380 options for something that has not even been fully defined, and if that is the case, where did you get that info from?



User currently offlineWhistler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1873 times:

Also the SC is a totally different aircraft than the A380. The SC is small.

User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 20, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1851 times:

Cathay Pacific 'MAY' drop the A 380 in favour of the SC. They may.........

User currently offlineCatpac From Australia, joined Mar 2001, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 1840 times:

That makes a little more sense!

User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 22, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 1832 times:

Yes. According to what the CEO has said.

Regards.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8018 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1818 times:

I think right now Boeing is looking at this possibility:

1. Build a 747 with the same fuselage length as the original 747X proposal, but with a slight area ruling of the fuselage to reduce high-speed drag.

2. Use the 747X wing.

3. Use Rolls-Royce Trent 972 or Engine Alliance GP7200 engines.

The result: a 747 with the same seating capacity as the 747X (e.g. 50 more pax than the 747-400) but with Mach 0.90-0.91 economical cruising speed and range approaching 9,000 nautical miles. Boeing will likely call it the 747-700 (not 747-500 or 747-600 designations since they were used for the original stretch proposals of the 1990's).

I think these airlines might be interested in the longer-range, faster 747:

Northwest Airlines
United Airlines
British Airways
South African Airways
Japan Airlines
Korean Air
Air China
Cathay Pacific Airways
Qantas (maybe)
Air India

This new 747 could offer most of the advantages of the Sonic Cruiser but with at least 744 carrying capacity and 777-200LR range.


User currently offlineCatpac From Australia, joined Mar 2001, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (13 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1808 times:

source please??? I would not believe that a B747 could manage economical cruise at M0.91, I think that is unpossible for such a jet.

25 Cedarjet : "Boeing said that their B747X is as advanced as the A380." Sure they did. But hardcore Boeing customers such as Singapore, Qantas, Virgin et al don't
26 Boeing747-400 : I don't think the new larger 747s will ever replace the 744. I think Boeing hasn't been to focused on selling the larger 747s at this time because the
27 Post contains images RIX : ...and what if Sonic Cruiser is more than a picture...
28 Catpac : Boeing 747-400, I personally love the B747 and all other types they offer as well. But being realistic, I don't think that the 747 will remain in prod
29 United Airline : Through continuous improvement, as Boeing has said, the B 747-400 is TOTALLY different from the B 747-100 in 1969. It is A LOT more advanced, and it i
30 RIX : Well, none of those 777/340 versions is a direct competitor for 747 since they are of different capacity - the same, of course, about 380. 747 is not
31 Catpac : RIX, The B777-300, A340-600 and the A380 is direct competition for the B747. They are all carrying almost as many passenegers and can travel the dista
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