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The Future Of Russian Airliners  
User currently offlineCannibalZ3 From United States of America, joined May 2001, 392 posts, RR: 0
Posted (13 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1899 times:

Does anyone have any predictions as to the future of the Russian airliner industry? Aeroflot recently stated that for the most part they weren't very interested in Russian-made planes, and their purchases confirm it. Tupolev seems to gear their airplanes mostly towards the west (at least, they're advertising western avionics) with very, very little success. A recent Janes report on Russian military (and I stress, military) aircraft manufactering states that probably if they don't start selling new planes soon, then 20 years from now they won't exist. Are the predictions as dire for the Russian civil industry? Will we ever see an airliner outside of former Soviet states and supported nations buying these airplanes? Lastly, are these airplanes actually any good? For instance, is there anything Russian that can realistically compete against Boeing or Airbus? Thought-out and informed replys only, if possible. Thanks a lot!
-Zach

5 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineWasilenko From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (13 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1866 times:

This question has been asked a few times already.

Lets, look at the civil industry first, in the last 10 years Russia produced only 22 civil airliners. In 1999 only one airplane was delivered. (Il-96-300 Domodedovo Airlines RA-96013) This year one Il-96-300 and one Tu-204-100 will be sold and possibly the last new Tu-154Ms. This are very bad figures esspecially when compared to 1991. In 1991 26% of world wide civil aircraft fleet was build in USSR.

The major problem with Russia is that if you want to buy a Russian airplane you must pay the full price in cash, there basically exists no dependeble leasing companys. However, this August for the first time one Tu-204-100 will be sold via a one new leasing company. If this deal works more will come for sure, I hope!

This is how I see the future of Russian Civil Aircraft industry. For the next 10 years at least Russian aircraft will only be sold in Russia, with very small orders from 3rd world nations. Yes, I am sure that they will still exist in 10 years time! There is a great need of new airliners in Russia in the next 5 years, most of the current fleet will have to be withdrawn from service at that time. There is no way Russian Airlines will turn towards Western planes (maybe Aeroflot will), not because they don't want to, but beacuse most carriers will not be able to afford such expensive items.

As for the millitary industry if China and India keep on buying Russian weapons the industry should be ok. Most of the new projects are financed by this two nations or by the money invested from sales.

Il-96-300 and Tu-204 respectively were world's 2nd and 3rd civil airliners to utilise a FBW control system. I am sure that when this airliners first came out they were up to date with their western counterparts. Now, even though I really like Tupolevs and Ilyushins, I would have to say they are becoming out dated, I mean both Il-96 and Tu-204 use a 10+ year old technology.
Please, correct me if I'm wrong!

Why don't you do a search for this topic, there are many great replys!

Wasilenko


User currently offlineAirmale From Botswana, joined Sep 2004, 380 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (13 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1855 times:

Strange that this post already exists I was just planning to do a thread on the subject, my question is, Could an order for any one type by a reputed major international airline change the fortune of Russian aircraft industry Confused Lufthansa considering the TU-204 for their cargo operations was one such chance that sadly did not work out.IT is a shame to see like the IL96 and the new Tupolev's go to waste, Hopefully their cargo versions may prove attrcative to other carries like PIA, Air India, Iran Air and other airlines, Libyan arab being iterested in the TU-204 is some good news considering it will be the first flag carrier to get them, but the Lufthansa deal would have been a major breakthrough, oh well Sad


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User currently offlineAirmale From Botswana, joined Sep 2004, 380 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (13 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1852 times:

Also wanted to add that perhaps Russia and Ukraine should team up with other Asian countries like China, Iran, India, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia to produce better versions of their planes that will gain greater acceptance in the market begining with airlines from the member countries, some thing like Airbus Industrie Smile

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User currently offlineIlyushin96M From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 2609 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (13 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1843 times:

Unless there will be a government mandate for Russian airlines to buy only Russian-made aircraft, it looks like orders will continue to dwindle.

Unfortunately, engine reliability problems are slowly killing the Ilyushin IL-96-300. Only Aeroflot has been willing to purchase this aircraft so far, though China Xinjiang reportedly will buy 5 of them. I don't think Perm Motors will ever fix the PS90A engine to the point where it is as reliable as Western engines. The PW-powered, Rockwell-equipped IL-96M/T project is dead, for all points and purposes, though it looks like Ilyushin will offer the airframe with different engines, at least as a cargo aircraft. I think the IL-96M could still fly, if Ilyushin can get European-made turbofans for it.

The Tupolev TU-204 has a good chance for success, because of all the Russian airlines that are currently ordering them. I think we will continue to see it and all its variants being produced for some time to come. The RB211-powered TU-204 variant is seeing limited success with some foreign airlines, and is much cheaper to purchase than a 757. As well, the TU-334 should get lots of orders because Russian airlines need to replace their aging aircraft.

As far as Yakovlev and Antonov (Antonov being Ukrainian), there doesn't seem to be much action going on with either. Does anyone know anything more about these two?


User currently offlineCannibalZ3 From United States of America, joined May 2001, 392 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (13 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1819 times:

Thanks for the great replys, everyone!
-Zach


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