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NK Likely To Expand At AZA  
User currently offlinedlramp4life From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 961 posts, RR: 1
Posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2781 times:

http://www.azcentral.com/community/m...rit-airlines-analysts-believe.html

Read this today in the news, With news of a base opening in LAS are they going to copy G4 and open another base at AZA... What are your thoughts?


PHX Ramp, hottest place on earth
12 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2713 times:

AZA has a very bright future in my opinion. The airport has enormous growth potential, although they will experience growing pains until the permanent East Terminal facility is built.

When Spirit first announced service to AZA, they announced two N/S flights to LAS and one to DFW. It is interesting to hear, according to the AZ Central article, that they are going up to 4 daily to LAS and two daily to DFW. Below is their original press release.

http://ir.spirit.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=630880

Personally, I think NK has a good chance to replicate, if not, outperform G4's success at AZA due to their frequency (daily flights) and connecting possibilities (should they decide to turn AZA into a hub). AZA is cheap to operate from and can draw from a different geographic areas than PHX (ie. Pinal County, Northern Pima County...perhaps even TUC residents).

If NK decides to develop a hub at AZA, then greater Phoenix area would be a hub for 4 carriers (WN, US, NK, G4). This is absolutely fantastic for the consumer as it keeps airfares reasonably priced. This also makes it attractive to businesses looking to relocate to the greater Phoenix area.


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5557 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2713 times:

The article is just the typical stuff you see when a new carrier enters a market. And there has not been any kind of encouragement from NK itself as to their future in Arizona.

And, as is being discussed on the NK/LAS thread, Spirit's venture from that new base westward has not exactly shown outstanding results as of late -- regression in at least 2 new markets, in 3, I think.

And I would say it's definitely WAY too early to speculate on chances of a base of any kind in the Phoenix area; let's at least wait to get Vegas's up and running, and see if Williams fares any better than McCarren.

That being said, I hope Spirit does okay at AZA and I, of course, would love to see flights between there and SAN. (I had hoped G4 would try the market but maybe NK will.)

bb


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7552 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2701 times:

Well, it seems like more of a spoke than a base, but with Spirit anything can happen (and then slowly fail as customers get fed up with things like carry on fees). It remains to be seen whether Spirit can make any of these things work long term. They continue cutting back their recently added Vegas and Chicago services. Dallas seems to be working as they have not backed off it.

So, my guess is that AZA is more likely to be cut back than expanded since that is the pattern for the other Vegas spokes, but who knows...


User currently offlineCoronado990 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1610 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2581 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 2):
And, as is being discussed on the NK/LAS thread, Spirit's venture from that new base westward has not exactly shown outstanding results as of late -- regression in at least 2 new markets, in 3, I think.

For whatever it's worth, I was on the 5:05p LAS-SAN NK flight last night and, for a Tuesday, the flight had a good load. It had 134 pax booked out of 145 seats and 128 showed up.



Uncle SAN at your service!
User currently offlineROSWELL41 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 803 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2443 times:

In speaking to Spirit people in ORD, they said to expect ORD-AZA to appear sometime this year. Granted its a rumor, but sometimes station personnel know more than other frontline employees.

User currently offlinenkops From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2688 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2411 times:

While I hope AZA works fine, I don't see it becoming much more than a spoke station. For a smaller airline, I think NK has more than enough crew bases at this time (4 I believe right now) so I don't see any more in the near future, except maybe ORD.


I have no association with Spirit Airlines
User currently offlineSanti319 From Mexico, joined Dec 2005, 403 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2395 times:

Quoting Coronado990 (Reply 4):
Quoting SANFan (Reply 2):
And, as is being discussed on the NK/LAS thread, Spirit's venture from that new base westward has not exactly shown outstanding results as of late -- regression in at least 2 new markets, in 3, I think.

For whatever it's worth, I was on the 5:05p LAS-SAN NK flight last night and, for a Tuesday, the flight had a good load. It had 134 pax booked out of 145 seats and 128 showed up.

Don't worry aparently here in A-net everybody panics everytime NK goes down from 5 daily to 4 daily so they can add new flights somewhere else.... They come up with all sort os theories, and NK demise and total pull out of FLL and DTW has been discussed several times... Look where they are now.


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5557 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2220 times:

First, I would like to suggest that a "?" be added to this thread's title. Perhaps the OP could try to get that done.

Quoting Coronado990 (Reply 4):
For whatever it's worth, I was on the 5:05p LAS-SAN NK flight last night and, for a Tuesday, the flight had a good load. It had 134 pax booked out of 145 seats and 128 showed up

Good to hear D. I would like to think that with only 2 flights (starting tomorrow) the LF will go up even more!

Quoting Santi319 (Reply 7):
aparently here in A-net everybody panics everytime NK goes down from 5 daily to 4 daily so they can add new flights somewhere else.... They come up with all sort os theories

To start with, a decrease from 5 flights to 4 would be a 20% cut in service/capacity on a route; this is apparently the case with LAX. However, cutting 2 routes from 3 to 2 flights is a 33% cut in capacity; and these cuts (LAS-SAN and LAS-OAK) are on routes that have op'd for 5 months now. The cuts appear to be lasting through the summer, perhaps returning in Sept. If my arithmatic is correct, that's a 1/3 capacity redux in 2 new markets for 7 months, including the peak summer travel season. (The other new w/c route, LAS- PDX, started with only 2 flights and that frequency is apparently holding steady.)

Also, it is my understanding that NK is taking delivery of new a/c this year (7?), so I find it hard to believe that these cuts from LA, OAK, and SAN will not be replaced in a few months (IF, as you say, they are needed for the AZA start-up.)

We on the w/c, other than LAX of course, are new to Spirit and many of us are not familiar with how they operate and function. Maybe this type of adjustments is normal for them, but to me it looks like a portion of their expansion and their route map is not working too well. I've seen it before, and will probably see it again. But that's how I see it. Sorry it you don't like it, [i]Santi'[/u]. And btw, theories as to why things happen in the airline business -- isn't that what A.net is all about?

bb


User currently offline93Sierra From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 420 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 2022 times:

Today is the day,

With the current G4 flight banks, and aircraft that RON, what stands will NK use and is there room?! Side note, what are the DC-9 USAF birds doing parked opposite the ramp, they havent moved in some time now. Thanks


User currently offlinenkops From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2688 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 1981 times:

Quoting Santi319 (Reply 7):

I dont think people are panicing, just stating they cut back SAN and OAK back a little... it might not be doing well, or it just might be to start AZA, who knows? Spirit is going to do what they have to do to make money on a route, or discontinue the route... If SAN and OAK go from 2 to 0, then we will know..... from seeing the loads everyday, SAN and OAK doesnt seem to be doing bad loadwise (which we all know doesnt mean anything with yield). Personally, I hope they expand LAS more, which will help the spoke cities out of there



I have no association with Spirit Airlines
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7552 posts, RR: 14
Reply 11, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 1949 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 8):
Maybe this type of adjustments is normal for them, but to me it looks like a portion of their expansion and their route map is not working too well.

It is not typical. What is particularly atypical is that they are cutting the frequencies at peak. Cali to Vegas does very well in the Summer. That tells me the new routes are more than just "kind of" weak. Usually peak isn't much of a risk anywhere, plus they are putting a crew base in LAS so service level changes probably create problems for such a small base in its infancy.


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 1687 times:

Quoting nkops (Reply 6):
While I hope AZA works fine, I don't see it becoming much more than a spoke station. For a smaller airline, I think NK has more than enough crew bases at this time (4 I believe right now) so I don't see any more in the near future, except maybe ORD.

One thing to keep in mind is that the catchment area for AZA is over 1.3 million people. This is a conservative estimate based on the pops of Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Queen Creek, and Pinal County. If you factor in some percentage of Ahwatukee, Tempe, Scottsdale, and maybe northern Pima county, the catchment area would be even larger.

To put this into perspective, the metro area of MEM is 1.3 million. So while this station may not become a hub for NK, there is certainly a large pool of potential customers to draw from with limited competition to large cities (ie. LAS, OAK). I think it would be an interesting test for NK to try service to some larger cities from AZA.


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