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DL's Very Strong January. Prasm +14.5%  
User currently offlineLHUSA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 563 posts, RR: 2
Posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 5158 times:

Delta posted strong resutls for Jan 2012, with YOY PRASM +14.5%. They site capacity discipline and revenue momentum which helped to increase yields. They specifically mentioned strong performance in domestic and tranatlantic entities. +14.5% is a significant accomplishment - was there any help from the accounting side of things (maybe a comparison from Jan 2011) or are these very true figures? UA/CO only posted figures in the 9% range.

http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=1538

[Edited 2012-02-10 09:05:58]

16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLHUSA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 563 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 4955 times:

Also, I can't find their Jan 2011 PRASM increase. It's not posted on thier press release for JAN 2011 traffic and revenue resutls. Anyone able to provide? Thanks!

User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 4804 times:

Quoting LHUSA (Thread starter):
Delta posted strong resutls for Jan 2012, with YOY PRASM +14.5%. They site capacity discipline and revenue momentum which helped to increase yields. They specifically mentioned strong performance in domestic and tranatlantic entities. +14.5% is a significant accomplishment - was there any help from the accounting side of things (maybe a comparison from Jan 2011) or are these very true figures? UA/CO only posted figures in the 9% range.

I think it has more to do with capacity shrinking

230bps increase in LF coupled with 4.3% *drop* in total ASM leads to a very good metric, regardless of pricing changes.

Nevertheless, good job DL


User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2368 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 4792 times:

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 2):

I think it has more to do with capacity shrinking

Don't discount revenue. On my routes, I am paying about 60% more than this time last year. My total spend for DL tickets for my associates is up about 55%. As I just looked at the YOY spread sheets this morning. Delta is driving revenue.


User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 4731 times:

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 3):
Don't discount revenue. On my routes, I am paying about 60% more than this time last year. My total spend for DL tickets for my associates is up about 55%. As I just looked at the YOY spread sheets this morning. Delta is driving revenue.

I've read some article a few weeks back *claiming* this Jan was one of the cheapest Jan's of the past few years in terms of airfare. DL was even running $200 all-in trans-con promotions.

Maybe they've yanked someone else's chains to make it up.


User currently offlineRDH3E From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 1648 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 4482 times:

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 1):
Also, I can't find their Jan 2011 PRASM increase. It's not posted on thier press release for JAN 2011 traffic and revenue resutls. Anyone able to provide? Thanks!

Anyone have a comparison of Revenue per RPM across the major players in the US (ie including WN and B6)? I think it would be interesting to see who is actually driving a revenue premium from the customers. PRASM is a great illustration of capacity vs revenue, but I'd love to see who gets the most money per ASM out of their customers.


User currently offlinepanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4895 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4323 times:
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Quoting RDH3E (Reply 5):
Anyone have a comparison of Revenue per RPM across the major players in the US (ie including WN and B6)?

It's actually Revenue per available seat mile (RASM). Also, the RASM numbers the airlines report are usually "raw" and not stage-length adjusted (for a fairer comparison). For an example, an airline like WN has shorter stage lengths than UA or AA or DL, so it's not exactly comparing apples and apples.

Here are the mainline PRASM numbers by quarter in 2011 for the Big Three (since they should have more similar stage lengths with each other than with WN or B6):

Q1 2011:

UA: 11.0 cents
AA: 10.92 cents
DL: 10.56 cents

Q2 2011:

UA: 12.15 cents
DL: 11.89 cents
AA: 11.62 cents

Q3 2011:

UA: 12.54 cents
DL: 12.44 cents
AA: 12.06 cents

Q4 2011:

DL: 11.93 cents
UA: 11.77 cents
AA: ????*

*AA filed Ch.11 in November 2011, so their reporting will be skewed; they now file monthly reports (Dec 2011 was the first which was filed a few weeks ago) so it's difficult getting thei Q4 2011 PRASM number to do a fair comparison.

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 1):
Also, I can't find their Jan 2011 PRASM increase. It's not posted on thier press release for JAN 2011 traffic and revenue resutls.

Delta only started releasing monthly PRASM change numbers this year. Previously, they only reported it on a quarterly basis (with the quarterly earnings announcement); they did announce their monthly PRASM change numbers during each earnings call though...


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7552 posts, RR: 28
Reply 7, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 4231 times:

Quoting LHUSA (Thread starter):
They site capacity discipline and revenue momentum which helped to increase yields. They specifically mentioned strong performance in domestic and tranatlantic entities. +14.5% is a significant accomplishment

Part of the reason behind all this is the significant margin improvement on Trans-Atlantic. Last year DL operated a lot more capacity across the Atlantic during the winter. A few months back they said they were going to significant reduce TATL capacity during the winter an not longer "make tons of money in the summer only to lose it all during the winter"

DL's (and AF/KL) capacity disipline across the Atlantic is one of the driving factors here.


User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1540 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4168 times:

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 1):
Also, I can't find their Jan 2011 PRASM increase. It's not posted on thier press release for JAN 2011 traffic and revenue resutls. Anyone able to provide? Thanks!

This is the first month that DL has ever posted PRASM increases/decreases along with their monthly traffic reports. CO has done this for a long time and that is carrying over to UA. The analysts certainly appreciate the info.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineusdcaguy From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 960 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4093 times:

What I wonder is where all the seats are going that were cut. Any idea if more of those seats are going to Asia or Latin America?

User currently onlineskymiler From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 528 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3942 times:

I think that there is a lot of revenue discipline being imposed.

As somebody who travels almost every week on DL (usually twice) I have noticed that there appear to be a lot more F/J upsells domestically suggested on their web site, plus they appear to have raised the lowest fare tiers.

Combine this with capacity discipline and it really makes one think hard about taking the advantage of the upsell.

Personally, I do, if it is reasonable (my expenses to my company only reflect the lower fare -- I pay the difference myself) but when it is only $80 more on (for example) a PDX-JAX trip, you bet I will take it! . 5 hours segment (e.g. PDX ATL) in a 738 can be a bit of a grind.

This is almost complete bottom line gain for DL -- the cost is to them is just some food and drink.

I have also observed that the F/J Medallion upgrades are getting somewhat harder to get, especially on routes such as ATL - LGA, due to the effective upsell.

From what I have observed, between ATL and LGA, if you are *ONLY* a PM, you will probably miss out on the upgrade!. Even as a DM I do not always get them, which says, perversely, that DL is doing the right thing for revenue!



I love to fly, and it shows!
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7874 posts, RR: 52
Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3858 times:

Quoting skymiler (Reply 10):
I have also observed that the F/J Medallion upgrades are getting somewhat harder to get

As a non-rev, I used to get first class all the time. Now I hardly ever get it. Good for DL making more money off upgrades



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2869 times:

Quoting skymiler (Reply 10):
I have also observed that the F/J Medallion upgrades are getting somewhat harder to get, especially on routes such as ATL - LGA, due to the effective upsell.



Not only that, F sales are actually doing pretty good by itself. More and more people are just paying the extra money up front to get a guaranteed seat rather than chancing a free upgrade which is so limited now-a-days.

As for F upsells. Just to be clear, airport standby upgrades are cleared after the medallion list is exhausted. Where they are doing pretty well is getting people to upgrade their fare class prior to the day of departure or at check-in which is usually more than what a standby upgrade would cost. The max for domestic is $225 one-way (typically see this on US-Hawaii-US) shorter hops are as little as $50-$75 usually too short for food. Then it's $100/$150 and $225 depending on flight distance.

Think ATL-LGA is bad? Try MSP-ATL. If you're not DM, forget about getting a front seat as the list is ridiculously long and with a very small inventory of empty seats to work with.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinetonytifao From Brazil, joined Mar 2005, 1019 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2816 times:

Quoting skymiler (Reply 10):
As somebody who travels almost every week on DL (usually twice) I have noticed that there appear to be a lot more F/J upsells domestically suggested on their web site, plus they appear to have raised the lowest fare tiers.

True. I have traveled on DL at least 6 times this year and only on F. I'm gettin First Class fare at around 350 one way while coach would be 290.


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7552 posts, RR: 28
Reply 14, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2180 times:

Quoting usdcaguy (Reply 9):
What I wonder is where all the seats are going that were cut. Any idea if more of those seats are going to Asia or Latin America?

Idle capacity. They pulled capacity down, and put some aircraft into storage and are flying with lower aircraft utilization.


User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1349 times:

Quoting panamair (Reply 6):
Q1 2011:

UA: 11.0 cents
AA: 10.92 cents
DL: 10.56 cents

Q2 2011:

UA: 12.15 cents
DL: 11.89 cents
AA: 11.62 cents

Q3 2011:

UA: 12.54 cents
DL: 12.44 cents
AA: 12.06 cents

Q4 2011:

DL: 11.93 cents
UA: 11.77 cents
AA: ????*

Is AA's PRASM a function of their smaller international network, or do they actually have a revenue problem (while most people keep claiming it's only a cost problem) ?


User currently offlineRDH3E From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 1648 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1254 times:

Quoting panamair (Reply 6):
It's actually Revenue per available seat mile (RASM)

Yeah, I know. But that is not what I was asking. I was asking for exactly what I stated:

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 5):
Anyone have a comparison of Revenue per RPM across the major players in the US (ie including WN and B6)?

What I am asking for is a comparison of YIELD between the carriers. Whose passengers are paying the most per mile to fly. This way you can exclude any excess capacity and see who's network and management is demanding a fare/mile premium.

PRASM and RASM all include variables for capacity, which if you want to strictly compare revenue premiums would probably help to isolate out of the equation as much as possible.


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