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Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 2  
User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5223 posts, RR: 14
Posted (2 years 1 month 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 15880 times:

Since the original thread has surpassed 250 posts, I thought it time to start a new one. I'm hoping and expecting there will be news to report here soon...

For those looking for background on this topic, the first thread can be found here:
Eight More DCA Beyond Perimeter Slots In New Bill (by md3 Jan 31 2012 in Civil Aviation)

bb

201 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 10992 posts, RR: 52
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 month 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 15722 times:

SANfan said:

Quote:
And assuming UA picks SFO, wouldn't it be much easier to fly UA from DCA to SFO to Asia? You would be on *A and the same carrier all the way to Asia...

The thing is, I'm a Chairman on US. I'm a bupkis on UA. I want to be treated well as far as I possibly can. UA has shown me time after time that the best they will do for me is put me in Economy-minus.



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User currently offlineSouthernDC9 From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 377 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 month 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 15646 times:

So am I correct in thinking that US, UA, DL and AA don't have to apply for anything per se - they just basically have to announce how they plan to use the slots? Any thoughts/info on when such announcements might be made? As long as we've been talking about it on here, I'm sure the airlines have made some plans and are ready to get these flights going (and when can the flights begin?)


What does AA/US merger mean for CLT/JFK/PHX/North America/Southern Hemisphere/God's Plan for the Universe
User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5223 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 15540 times:

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 2):
So am I correct in thinking that US, UA, DL and AA don't have to apply for anything per se - they just basically have to announce how they plan to use the slots? Any thoughts/info on when such announcements might be made? As long as we've been talking about it on here, I'm sure the airlines have made some plans and are ready to get these flights going (and when can the flights begin?)

You might want to skim through the final posts of the previous thread as your questions were discussed there. (You are right about the Big 4; as far as I know, it's just advise and fly...)

I will say that I was up bright and early this morning checking Docket 29 to see if anyone had made a move yet. Nope.

I also wondered on the other thread if everyone would wait until the last minute (March 12), kind of like they did on the LGA/DCA slot bidding battle. It's impossible to guess what strategies the various cx will use this time, and why.

I will try to monitor the Docket as closely as I can and will certainly post any news as soon as possible.

Still with   ...

bb


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2634 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 15514 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
I will say that I was up bright and early this morning checking Docket 29 to see if anyone had made a move yet. Nope.
Quoting SANFan (Reply 3):
I will try to monitor the Docket as closely as I can and will certainly post any news as soon as possible.

LOL......... Maybe change your screen name to DCAFan?

But anyway, I will be guilty of waiting for your postings....


 


User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 829 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 15493 times:

Sorry, SANFan...you were right in the previous thread in pointing out that an incumbant only gets one new r/t slot. I meant that if both AA and DL both started LAX-DCA that AS would likely code-share with both.

I see UA opting for SFO, AA for LAX, US for SFO and DL for LAX. That leaves SAN, OAK, SJC, PDX, SAT and anywhere else beyond-pertimeter for everyone else.

VX goes for SFO and LAX (regardless of the big four...where else could they go that makes sense?) and gets SFO. AS goes for PDX, SAN and SJC and gets PDX. WN goes for SAT, SAN and SJC....they get SAN. B6 goes for SAT and gets it. SJC is left out...y'all have to drive the 101 to SFO.

Everyone else gets left out. F9 is just plain shaky and DEN is already well-served to DCA. NK is too often in the dog-house with the DOT so this would be their comeuppance if they applied for anything. It doesn't really fit G4's business plan (2x weekly from FAT?). If WS or AC were awarded a slot to Western Canada the other carriers would be apopleptic.

[Edited 2012-02-27 09:43:34] (sorry for the edits!)

[Edited 2012-02-27 09:44:28]

User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 month 3 weeks ago) and read 15331 times:
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Quote:
[from previous thread] Is US the only airline who would consider SAN in the first round? I could see them choosing the star hubs instead maybe no one will take SAN first round?

US handles a *huge* amount of traffic out of SAN. But most of their transcons from CLT and PHL stop at PHX on the way to SAN to pick up connecting traffic from all over the southwest.

A nonstop DCA-SAN flight would run contrary to the way they've chosen to serve SAN


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5223 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 15254 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
I see UA opting for SFO, AA for LAX, US for SFO and DL for LAX. That leaves SAN, OAK, SJC, PDX, SAT and anywhere else beyond-pertimeter for everyone else.

VX goes for SFO and LAX (regardless of the big four...where else could they go that makes sense?) and gets SFO.

Hi 'Flyer! Thanx for the clarification and glad to see you still watching this unfold.

So you're saying here that after SFO gets 2 of the Big 4, the DOT will give SFO ANOTHER carrier? I would find that hard to accept. LA and SF would both end up with 3 flights on 3 separate cx? Considering other cities that would get nothing, that sounds a bit lopsided to me and I think the DOT would come under a lot of pressure for that decision.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
AS goes for PDX, SAN and SJC and gets PDX. WN goes for SAT, SAN and SJC....they get SAN. B6 goes for SAT and gets it. SJC is left out...y'all have to drive the 101 to SFO.

And Austin, actually the 4th largest market to DCA without current service, goes home empty? This would anger a lot more folks -- including Texas Congresspeople -- than SJC not getting a flight...

I could see B6 applying for, and getting, AUS, WN taking SAT, and I'm sorry but I can honestly see AS winning SAN. (These picks are based on your assumptions of the Big 4 choices which I don't necessarily agree with.) I know you (and others) and I (and others) don't agree on PDX being a shoe-in for winning one of the Final 4 but I keep looking at the numbers (that I can see), and levels of current service, and actual traffic between the Rose City and DC and I am just not convinced.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
Everyone else gets left out. F9 is just plain shaky and DEN is already well-served to DCA. NK is too often in the dog-house with the DOT so this would be their comeuppance if they applied for anything. It doesn't really fit G4's business plan (2x weekly from FAT?). If WS or AC were awarded a slot to Western Canada the other carriers would be apopleptic

Again, it depends on who applies for what routes. Who's to say that F9 won't apply for PDX, SAN, and ABQ? If NK applies for, say, Vegas...? And I still won't say "never" to the Canadians!

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 6):
US handles a *huge* amount of traffic out of SAN. But most of their transcons from CLT and PHL stop at PHX on the way to SAN to pick up connecting traffic from all over the southwest.

A nonstop DCA-SAN flight would run contrary to the way they've chosen to serve SAN

Summer service is generally at least 2x daily to CLT and 3x to PHL -- and these are usually op'd by 321s -- plus lots of PHX flights. I would therefore say that SAN is served pretty well from all 3 of US's hubs. And again, I will repeat what I've said many times: I feel certain that ANY of the Big 4 that might chose to fly SAN-DCA (inc US or even DL) would have no problem filling a daily flight, simply based on the local business/military and tourist traffic. Period.

So even though US is not a major player in SAN for a variety of reasons, they certainly are THE major at DCA and I think they would be successful if they should choose the route.

bb


User currently offlinewashingtonian From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 15219 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
B6 goes for SAT and gets it

B6 SAT? Why do you think this?


User currently offlinehmelawyer From United States of America, joined May 2011, 59 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 15215 times:

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
B6 goes for SAT and gets it.

I find it very unlikely that if B6 is going to get a Texas city it will not be AUS. They already operate to six non-stop stations from AUS and DCA is a logical extension. AUS serves as a connecting point for some of their west-coast service to Florida and could do the same thing for D.C. They do not have any service to SAT and do not see them opening SAT as a station solely with the DCA flight. They would also have to add at least a JFK schedule to make the station worthwhile. I think AUS is much more likely.


User currently offlineGRUIAD From United States of America, joined Sep 2010, 52 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 15075 times:

Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft". Flights to commence May 14, 2012. They will discontinue a flight to ORD. A 20:55 arrival from SFO and 08:00 departure from DCA is proposed.

User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 10992 posts, RR: 52
Reply 11, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 15062 times:

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):

Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft".

I'm glad they put in that "other suitable aircraft" because the 73G is not one of them, imo. Why not 757? Is it a weight thing?



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User currently offlineAtrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5686 posts, RR: 52
Reply 12, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 15001 times:

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):
Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft". Flights to commence May 14, 2012. They will discontinue a flight to ORD. A 20:55 arrival from SFO and 08:00 departure from DCA is proposed.

Excellent, seemed to be an obvious one from the United Side!

I am surprised at the 73G choice of aircraft, but they know what they are doing!

Alex



Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 15001 times:
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Quoting D L X (Reply 11):

I'm glad they put in that "other suitable aircraft" because the 73G is not one of them, imo. Why not 757? Is it a weight thing?

With a 757, I could actually see some folks shifting over from IAD. I know TWA used to fill up 757s to LAX even though AS now does that route with 73NGs, so this might be some kind of capacity-yields thing


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5223 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 14967 times:

Quoting GRUIAD (Reply 10):
Today United Airlines filed intent to fly DCA-SFO with 737-700s or "other suitable aircraft". Flights to commence May 14, 2012. They will discontinue a flight to ORD. A 20:55 arrival from SFO and 08:00 departure from DCA is proposed

I just checked the Docket and there's nothing there but thanks for reporting that, GRU'.

One down (without any surprise) and 7 to go!

  

bb


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6578 posts, RR: 32
Reply 15, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 14924 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 13):
I know TWA used to fill up 757s to LAX even though AS now does that route with 73NGs, so this might be some kind of capacity-yields thing

AS uses a 737NG by necessity; they don't have 757's in their fleet. The only aircraft TWA had which could operate DCA-LAX non-stop was the 757 (I'm not sure their 763ER's could have done it without a weight restriction).

Quoting D L X (Reply 11):
I'm glad they put in that "other suitable aircraft" because the 73G is not one of them, imo. Why not 757?

My guess is that they are choosing to start a new route with the smallest aircraft with sufficient performance. They can always upgauge if needed.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 7):
And I still won't say "never" to the Canadians!

I would say the Canadians are handicapped by one of the criteria: "the extent to which the exemptions will provide air transportation with domestic network benefits in areas beyond the perimeter"

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
I see UA opting for SFO, AA for LAX

We've seen the former, of course. And anyone who understands AA's Cornerstone network strategy would see that the only Cornerstone hub outside the DCA perimeter is LAX -- so logically AA would choose to operate DCA-LAX.

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 5):
DL for LAX

Maybe DL goes for LAX and maybe they add a second SLC. I think both are equally likely.


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 14883 times:
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Quoting ScottB (Reply 15):
AS uses a 737NG by necessity; they don't have 757's in their fleet.
AS has both 738s and 739s in their fleet -- in addition to the NGs.

In spite of what we are told, the non-ER 739s can make it transcon since they used to fly IAD-SEA back in the day when AS had a station at IAD.  yes 

[Edited 2012-02-27 14:47:06]

User currently offlinejonathanxxxx From United States of America, joined Feb 2011, 672 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 14851 times:

Couldn't B6 propose DCA-SJU? I think with the recent buildup it would be way more likely than AUS or LGB.

User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2634 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 14774 times:

Quoting hmelawyer (Reply 9):
I find it very unlikely that if B6 is going to get a Texas city it will not be AUS.
Quoting hmelawyer (Reply 9):
They do not have any service to SAT and do not see them opening SAT as a station solely with the DCA flight

Looking at a map, since Austin and San Antonio are pretty near each other (60 or so miles apart?) and AUS seems to be on the side of of the city that is near San Antonio - I guess my question would be if AUS got a flight here, would it benefit those of San Antionio, in that driving up to AUS and going to DCA maybe be better for some than flying n/s with either UA or WN to IAD or BWI, and then driving to points in the D.C area? Maybe it's less of a schlep for some?

 


User currently offlineDualQual From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 732 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 14755 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 16):
AS has both 738s and 739s in their fleet -- in addition to the NGs.

Nitpick-the 800 and 900 are also NGs. As is the 600.


User currently offlinethreeifbyair From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 649 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 14711 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 16):
In spite of what we are told, the non-ER 739s can make it transcon since they used to fly IAD-SEA back in the day when AS had a station at IAD.

I flew SEA-MCO-SEA back in 2004/2005 on 739s. MCO has a longer runway than DCA does, of course, but it is a longer flight to SEA. Before AS acquired large numbers of 738s, the 739 had to do a lot of the transcons. Nowadays, the 739 fleet doesn't go east of ORD. When the 739ER is introduced, I expect SEA-DCA to be one of the first routes to see it - the capacity is desperately needed.

If AS wins PDX-DCA, a 738 is most likely, maybe a 73G. The difference in service levels between PDX and SEA is quite striking: AS has 3x daily SEA-ORD with a mix of 738/739 while PDX is 1x daily 73G, even though partner AA runs 4x daily 738s on SEA-ORD and doesn't serve PDX-ORD.


User currently offlinemikefrommke From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 351 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 14684 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 18):
Looking at a map, since Austin and San Antonio are pretty near each other (60 or so miles apart?) and AUS seems to be on the side of of the city that is near San Antonio - I guess my question would be if AUS got a flight here, would it benefit those of San Antionio, in that driving up to AUS and going to DCA maybe be better for some than flying n/s with either UA or WN to IAD or BWI, and then driving to points in the D.C area? Maybe it's less of a schlep for some?

I lived in AUS the last 3 years and drove down to SAT a handful of times for cheaper flights. Its only about an hour away in good traffic depending on where in the city you are. I'm sure that there is some traffic willing to make the trek up. Surprisingly despite SAT being one of the biggest cities in America, they don't seem to have a large portion of the population that flies on a regular basis.


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5223 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 14668 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 18):
Looking at a map, since Austin and San Antonio are pretty near each other (60 or so miles apart?) and AUS seems to be on the side of of the city that is near San Antonio - I guess my question would be if AUS got a flight here, would it benefit those of San Antionio, in that driving up to AUS and going to DCA maybe be better for some than flying n/s with either UA or WN to IAD or BWI, and then driving to points in the D.C area? Maybe it's less of a schlep for some?

Texas, to me, remains the big mystery in this case. Some speculators here on A.net don't even consider AUS and SAT in the race, instead talking about SLC, DEN, LAS or PHX, in addition to California.

I personally will be VERY surprised if at least one of those 2 large, growing cities in the Lone Star state doesn't get a gold ring out of this. For one thing, the Texan Congressional delegation has been quite vocal over the last few years, including sponsoring bills of their own to increase beyond-perimeter air service at DCA (from guess which cities in particular?) Given the very limited nature of the proceedings -- 8 flights total, about half of which will probably go to California cities -- I kind of doubt both SAT and AUS will get a flight. (Of course it also depends on how many cx apply, and for which cities!)

I would tend to throw my hunch toward the State Capital since it has probably higher government and business connections with DC, and a nearly focus-like operation by at least B6 (and perhaps WN as well?) SAT, OTOH, has a higher volume of existing O&D traffic and maybe more military travel, as well as a larger MSA popluation. A toss up? That may be up to the DOT to determine.

Your questioin about whether a flight to one city would also be used by those from the other is an interesting one which should be answered by a Texan! I can say that if I lived in SAT (especially the north side) and let's say Blue offered a n/s from AUS, and I liked (and used B6) a lot, I would probably make the drive for the nonstop. These days, I will do quite a bit to avoid connections!

bb


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 14648 times:
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Quoting DualQual (Reply 19):
Nitpick-the 800 and 900 are also NGs. As is the 600.

With seating capacities of 119 (600) to 172 (739A)

quite a difference, yes?


User currently offlineAtrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5686 posts, RR: 52
Reply 24, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 14586 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 23):

With seating capacities of 119 (600) to 172 (739A)

quite a difference, yes?

Yes, but Seat Capacity does not determine that...

The Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 are all NG's.

Alex



Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
25 GRUIAD : It takes time for things to get uploaded to regulations.gov, should be in there by tomorrow morning.
26 HiFlyerAS : My bad...I was thinking of AUS the entire time but said SAT. AUS would be the logical choice for B6...they certainly wouldn't get the needed traffic
27 md3 : I have to say it, but IMO the 739ERs probably still won't be scheduled into DCA. Real world performance questions will probably outweigh the potentia
28 wedgetail737 : I agree. I think AS would go for 3X daily SEA-DCA, 1X daily PDX-DCA or 2X daily LAX-DCA. I still think AS flights between SAN-DCA is a long shot. Pro
29 slcdeltarumd11 : For Delta i bet 2x SLC is certainly an option theyll consider first. This would offer time options to many cities and the current 757 does so well. Th
30 FutureUScapt : Yes, but there are already several connecting options to any large city via ATL, DTW, or MSP in addition to SLC.
31 Post contains images HiFlyerAS : Not SANFan but I'll give it a go! Both SAN and SJC are where you'll probably see the most future growth for AS besides SEA or PDX. SAN and SJC are bo
32 Coronado990 : Think Naval port. Don't count B6 out of this route either. It would give B6 a solid BOS/JFK/DCA combination out of SAN. They did serve SAN-IAD at one
33 seabosdca : That's a very gentle way to put it. A 739ER is a runway pig, mostly because it requires a very gentle rotation angle. It couldn't fly out of DCA's sh
34 SYfan100 : For the longest time I always thought there should be more current slot routes available from California/etc states going to DCA because there is a de
35 Post contains images point2point : Under the current setting, I have a feeling that the demand for DCA slots from anywhere outside of the perimeter is there, and from just about anywhe
36 HiFlyerAS : Good point. I've worked many DCA flights....they are filled with politicians & staff, civil servants, military, lobbyists, businesspeople and tou
37 Post contains images SANFan : Let's remember something about AS and these proceedings. AS will not decide what route they will serve -- the DOT will. In fact, the DOT will decide w
38 RWA380 : AS starting DCA-PDX if given a slot exemption, means much more than O/D numbers, AS is PDX's largest carrier, AS is very loyal and dedicated to PDX, l
39 RWA380 : Perfectly timed for the bank of Asia connections out of SFO, and return as well, but I'd be surprised if they didn't do this. It's exactly what every
40 HiFlyerAS : Pretty much as expected... and UA and US working together out of SFO seems the logical choice, perhaps denying VX. That leaves AA for LAX and DL for
41 redrooster3 : UA applies for SFO-DCA route, a new beginning? Did the bill get passed?
42 Post contains images SANFan : ...another LAX cx? With the huge amount of traffic between LA and DC, a third carrier wouldn't be overkill IMO. Of course I do have other ideas as to
43 TOMMY767 : Forget the 73G -- UA's DCA-SFO should be operated by a PS 757 or at the very least an ex CO 757 with the 16 BF seats. A 73G or 738 seems like a low b
44 seabosdca : A domestic First cabin is better for DCA. You need plenty of First seats to keep the self-important people happy, but they don't have to be super-lux
45 md3 : These routes are going into effect right as the DC summer starts kicking in. High temps and oppressive humidity are normal. The initial selection by U
46 mercure1 : Delta choice is a SLC service. Effective June 7. DCA-SLC 0745-1022 SLC-DCA 1650-2255 Equipment mix of 737/757.
47 HiFlyerAS : No way! That's a bit of a surprise but it does give them 2x daily out of SLC. I'm sure that VX will now definitely go for LAX.
48 Post contains images point2point : ding ding ding ding ding..... And next, AA to LAX, and finally, US to........ PHX?
49 Post contains images CGKings317 : Very interesting choice on the part of DL. What large-hub, within-perimeter airport will see a reduction as a result of this trade off? ~CGKings317
50 SouthernDC9 : I wonder if DL figured AA would go with LAX and rather than fight that out, adding to SLC made more sense? Like chess, almost? Also if AS tries for PD
51 Atrude777 : Hmmh, not happy with this..I thought the point was to provide NEW choices and not add to existing ones? Which route for Delta gets the reduction to f
52 SouthernDC9 : LGA, I think
53 hmelawyer : I have lived in Austin for about 8 years now. I think that in general there are some people from San Antonio that will use AUS, and some people from
54 Post contains images SANFan : Source please? And as others have already asked, what within-perimeter flight are they surrendering? If this is true, I'm not totally surprised, just
55 Post contains images CGKings317 : Errr. I LOVE Portlandia and if AS does get PDX-DCA rights that would certainly qualify for "putting a bird on it" ~CGKings317
56 Post contains images SANFan : But Alex, for the Big 4 cx, there really is no point; they simply decide what they want to use their "gift" for, and do it! It will ultimately be up
57 mercure1 : Yes Delta is dropping a LGA service.
58 seabosdca : If AA doesn't pick LAX, I'll eat a set of safety wands. US is the mystery here, but I think DL's decision just made it a lot more likely that US will
59 steex : I'm sorry to interrupt, but I had exactly the same comment. And just to ask again, the airline that operates these flights would be local?
60 SANFan : As things are starting to happen here, I'm thinking that B6 would be very smart to apply for AUS and would undoubtedly get it easily. I really don't
61 Post contains images point2point : Thanks for the explanation. I get a better picture from this, but now, may I also ask...? I suppose that if those on the northern and eastern ends of
62 mercure1 : Voila AA AA240 LAX-DCA 0800-1600 AA245 DCA-LAX 1710-1900 B757 effective June 14, 2012. Replaces a DFW flight.
63 HPRamper : Did you see this route before? I didn't.. And now there's a bird on it.
64 Atrude777 : With that done... UA DCA-SFO DL DCA-SLC AA DCA-LAX US DCA-??? It is possible since DL added DCA-SLC, US could beef up DCA-PHX again though there is a
65 point2point : Less than 2 hours, eh? Calling US Airways..... calling US Airways...... and with PHX?
66 steex : I'll put my bet on US doing a late afternoon DCA-SFO and redeye SFO-DCA, then with codeshare, that gives UA/US effectively two daily on the route wit
67 TOMMY767 : WOW! Wonder if AA will nix a flight from IAD then?
68 mah4546 : Why is it surprising AA has asked for LAXDCA? Doubt it will nix an LAXIAD flight. It does well and 3x daily is ideal. Plus, a lot of the premium traf
69 HiFlyerAS : Perfectly timed with AS's existing service. AS6 LAX-DCA 1305-2056 AS5 DCA-LAX 0915-1205
70 QANTAS747-438 : Ummmmm.... did WN forget to come out and play?!?!?!
71 LHCVG : These were the 4 exemptions granted for the "legacies". WN should be free to bid on the remaining 4 exemptions that are open to the small fry (market
72 Longhornmaniac : I don't think it's ever been looked at as anything more than an idea. Downtown to downtown is at least 90 minutes, often more because I-35 is perpetu
73 md3 : Perfectly timed to draw LAX based business travelers away from AS. AA does not codeshare on those flights. With AS5 and 6 timed better for DC busines
74 Post contains images point2point : Okay, thanks for that..... I suppose, not being down in that area, and just looking at a map, one could conclude one thing, but with all of the circu
75 Post contains images SANFan : Three down and one to go. Still no real surprises yet; everyone's gone pretty much as many expected. I keep wondering if US has really been waiting to
76 hmelawyer : Longhornmaniac correctly hit most of the important points here in his post. The midpoint airport would just not be feasible for business traffic. Whi
77 SurfandSnow : All of these moves were to be expected. UA has three hubs outside of the DCA perimeter. They already serve DEN, whilst SFO and LAX are without nonstop
78 ModernArt : While acknowledging San Diego's large Navy and Marine presence, at Joint Base San Antonio (USAF and Army) there are at least 100,000 active duty mili
79 redrooster3 : AA to start LAX-DCA, Effective June 14th
80 wedgetail737 : PDX can also be used as an alternate connection point for AS to other cities in the case the 2X daily DCA-SEA flights are sold out. That can include
81 Post contains images SANFan : Since AS has been the ONLY game in town for many years (between DCA and LA) I find it hard to believe that "hardly anyone in DC" knows about the serv
82 EA CO AS : It's probably because their preference is to use the 73G, but would be willing to upgauge to a 738 or 752 if needed. Back when AS secured their first
83 iaddca : is DL keeping the am IAD-SLC? IAD already has weak domestic options east of the rockies, expect terminal B to get even quieter during the day.
84 FutureUScapt : Each of the legacies is only allowed to convert two slots/one pair for new beyond perimeter routes, so US can only start one additional beyond perime
85 HiFlyerAS : Considering how closely AS and AA work together through code-sharing and FF reciprocity, these two LAX flights will be a marriage made in heaven. The
86 b757capt : My guess is US does DCA-SAN. Just a guess.
87 FutureUScapt : But will this be allowed to continue once AA launches the route (i.e. do AA/AS codeshare on routes they both fly nonstop, such as DFW/ORD-SEA)?
88 Post contains images SATexan : SAT-DCA is an absolute no brainer! The question is who will step forward to serve the route.....
89 hatbutton : Yes there is codesharing on overlapping routes like DFW and ORD. However, I wonder how much codesharing could happen considering neither have that mu
90 HiFlyerAS : And this wouldn't be one of them?? If there was ever a reason to code-share with another carrier then this is it. You'd be offering 2x daily...pretty
91 EA CO AS : AS has (and continues to) offer "local-market codeshares" with AA in various markets where there are no onward connections. For example, AA can (and
92 FutureUScapt : There is codesharing on routes where only the nonstop segment is involved? The reason I ask is that I can not buy an AS nonstop DFW-SEA flight on aa.
93 hatbutton : I don't believe you can buy SEA-ORD either on alaskaair.com on AA but if you want to go to MSY you can buy a ticket alaskaair.com that will take you
94 PlanesNTrains : It's always interesting when they come up in the booking sites for SEA-LAX. Sometimes the flights are the same price and sometimes they are quite dif
95 EA CO AS : See my reply 90, above. While most codesharing involves routes where you're connecting from one carrier to another, there are examples of local-marke
96 mah584jr : US doesn't necessarily have to do a red eye do they? They could do a midday departure out of DCA and do a morning departure out of SFO. They could ju
97 Post contains images slcdeltarumd11 : This only made sense in the end. They want to really solidify as SLCs dominating fortress carrier and they have very profitable connections to wester
98 HPRamper : Not at all. As long as they choose a station that has more than a few daily flights they could absolutely switch aircraft. Of course, with US we have
99 md3 : It is hard to believe and counter-intuitive, especially in a monopolized market. But I've been there, for years. Talking with passengers and looking
100 FutureUScapt : I saw that, but the question I'm asking involves a different scenario. In your example, only AS flies LAX-SEA so there is no issue. However, in DFW/O
101 md3 : I'm pretty sure (someone correct me if I'm wrong) that there are no rules regarding what domestic routes airlines can code share on. It is up to them
102 HiFlyerAS : The main reason AA was restricted from offering more code-shares was their CBA with the pilot group. Now that they'll be all soon be working under a
103 wedgetail737 : Perhaps your right about the DCA-LAX flights. When TWA was purchased by AA some years ago, AA was denied the right the fly DCA-LAX and was given to A
104 steex : Correct, US obviously does not have to do a redeye or use only one plane (though the East vs. West distinction noted by HPRamper does have to be work
105 EA CO AS : Any advertising exec will tell you that your ad dollars are actually better spent where you're already big, not where you're an unknown. Seems counte
106 SouthernDC9 : So why haven't we heard from US? I'm pretty sure the reason is that all the suits in the US corporate offices are gathered in a big conference room wi
107 D L X : Do you think it's fair to say that the DCA-SEA route is for people in the PacNW to get to DC, and not so much for the people in DC to get to the PacN
108 TWA902fly : Out of curiosity... are these slots available to foreign carriers? Would BA be able to do LCY-SNN-DCA with their A318? DCA's runways are longer than L
109 Post contains images SANFan : My thoughts exactly, 'DC9. LOL!!!! (You forgot A.net's longtime member, spudnick, from Idaho making a very good case for BOI-DCA!) I'm continuing to
110 mogandoCI : LCY primarily benefits the financial industry. If it's government travel, they don't really save that much time choosing LCY (lots of inner-city traf
111 Post contains images point2point : LOL..... but thinking about this, I think that there is sometimes a lot more value here on a.net then there are in these corporate suites...... and a
112 Post contains images SANFan : Myself among that group, guaranteed! I'm not even sure I'm going to make 'til sundown TODAY! But seriously, I feel that the US Airways decision is re
113 steex : It's hard to calculate a true statistical probability given how subjective the selection process is. However, I would generally think the more routes
114 Post contains images SANFan : Great post steex. These are exactly the things I'm thinking about lately - some of the scenarios I mentioned in my last post! And they leave me quite
115 steex : I wouldn't sweat it too much (of course, that's easy to say for a guy living inside the perimeter). I'm imagining that the airlines will submit sever
116 wedgetail737 : That's where social networking sites work well.
117 EA CO AS : Absolutely, except you can add the whole state of Alaska to that mix as well. Don't get me wrong, AS would welcome DC-area travelers with open arms a
118 SANFan : Well, as we wait for US Airways to get on with it, and I try to find ways of using up nervous energy, I thought I'd post an expanded version of a char
119 GRUIAD : Since the Order did not have a deadline for incumbent airlines to file their beyond perimeter flight, I have a feeling that US will wait for the appli
120 Post contains images SANFan : That is a theory that I haven't thought of -- not that I haven't posted a few others already! The only problem with that is it isn't really necessary
121 ASFlyer : Actually, at a recent Flight Path seminar, Andrew Harrison said that AS would likely apply for PDX-DCA and that SJC and SAN to DCA were also on the r
122 steex : These are complete and total guesses, but I'll throw out what potential applications I think may be put forth for the additional four slots. AS - PDX/
123 mariner : I think the chances of Frontier getting a 4th DEN-DCA are slim to none - and Slim's just left the building. If - IF - Frontier does apply, I think it
124 SouthernDC9 : Would AS have anything to gain from adding HNL to their proposed route and promoting as one-stop/plane service from DC-Hawaii (sort of like Aloha trie
125 steex : I agree with you. Like you, I figure if F9 applies, it will be for somewhere else - I just can't really decide what would be a logical alternate for
126 Post contains images mariner : I'm not being entirely serious when I say that if I had my druthers it would be DCA-CUN. Slightly more seriously, I would hope - only hope - that Fro
127 Post contains images SANFan : I was thinking about your theory GRU' (as I did other things AWAY FROM my computer) and had some input on it. If US does wait 'til the end of the who
128 Post contains images SANFan : Interesting guesses, steex. But you didn't include any Canadian choices -- for app's OR awards! The Texas twosome lends an interesting element to thi
129 steex : I realize you jest, but I did consider whether or not WS might apply for YYC. I just don't see it without having any other service there right now an
130 seabosdca : With all due respect to COS, it's not a huge town, and doesn't have an enormous amount of traffic to DCA. If it were further east, it would be exactl
131 Post contains images mariner : I probably agree with some of those. I posted what I thought Frontier might apply for - I didn't say they would or that they'd get it - but I think C
132 slcdeltarumd11 : Yeah but COS is so low right now because DEN has many N/S which are cheaper and IAD has a non-stop already to COS. UA flies to IAD from COS and i bet
133 mariner : I'm not sure how far off-topic we can get, but given that Frontier reported a $7.8 million profit today - profit is very rare for a 4th quarter - I g
134 slcdeltarumd11 : Unstable and unreliable is frontiers profits lets look at the last years and see how they've done cumulative? They have tons of debt, Republic isnt g
135 Post contains links mariner : That was then, this is now, and Frontier has restructured: http://www.indystar.com/article/2012...newswell%7Ctext%7CIndyStar.com%7Cs "Republic Airway
136 Longhornmaniac : IF it comes down to either SAT or AUS, it really depends on which carriers apply for which cities. WN at either city would make sense. It has a sizab
137 Hmelawyer : I think that both carriers will at least submit Texas applications, though I don't know if it will be their focus. I do not think that both carriers
138 Post contains images ScottB : I disagree, for the simple fact that one of the criteria is: So if WN and B6 were both to apply for DCA-AUS, WN could argue they would provide connec
139 Post contains images SANFan : I certainly agree with this reasoning, Scott, as can be seen in my post 127. So do YOU have a theory as to why US is holding out with their decision?
140 GRUIAD : The advantage is really to screw the other airlines. Consider that all the applications for the limited incumbent awards are due on 12 March and one
141 gigneil : There's room for US on any of the top picks alongside any other carrier. I bet a beer that VX will file for SFO-DCA, and United has announced SFO-DCA,
142 slcdeltarumd11 : As people said there probably really is room for either SFO or LAX still but its a question of which will make more money now and which is safer to ha
143 HPRamper : LAX would make more sense than SFO for US but I wouldn't call it "safe" as there IS competition on the route and will likely be more some time down th
144 Sevensixtyseven : Here's my 2 cents. If the slots are daily, why not simply split one slot up to 3x weekly AUS, and 4x weekly SAT? It's the same number of planes, for t
145 Post contains links SANFan : And things in Tempe just seem to keep getting stranger by the day... Just now (Sunday, March 4) while doing my due diligence and checking for news, I
146 sydscott : And that is exactly what US has done with its first wave of DCA announcements. The targeting of Military and commercial traffic related to them is a
147 SANFan : Remember, however, US can change their destination at any time, and, AFAIK, as often as they want. There is nothing sacred about what they finally an
148 sydscott : On the contrary, I have no doubt that whatever US decides to do will be the product of a well thought out stategy behind the scenes. I think the deci
149 RWA380 : Wow, 12+ hours on a 738, I can't see how a thru plane service to Hawaii would help AS's case, especialy when the timing of the flight would most like
150 HPRamper : Arguably, WN could offer a lot of connections from a lot of stations...but they would all be major markets, not able to connect to regional markets l
151 BOACCunard : Alright, I've been reading this thread for days but I haven't said anything. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I predict this as the final re
152 Post contains images RWA380 : Thanks, you may be one of the few that ever has admitted to agreeing with me. As mentioned earlier in this thread, PDX can and would also provide eas
153 HPRamper : I think the QX shuttle to SEA also helps make this a slam dunk route. With all the options to SEA from PDX this could practically be considered a PDX
154 Coronado990 : I think the best thing for US (and probably why they are stalling) is for them to figure out how to serve SFO, LAX and SAN. They best way to do that,
155 LHCVG : That's an interesting idea. I've been wondering about US's view of DCA-LAS, for exactly what you mention here, that there has to be a higher-yielding
156 seabosdca : Pretty sure shifting those existing PHX slots would require congressional approval, which John McCain could (and likely would) singlehandedly block.
157 SANFan : I don't think the shifting of previous awards is an option, D. AFAIK, the only "moveable" slots are the 4 available THIS TIME to AA, DL, UA and US. F
158 mariner : I would be very surprised if US can shift that exemption and even more surprised (as in fall over in shock) if Frontier applied for LAS-DCA. Anything
159 b757capt : F9 just applied for daily service to SDF-DCA. Just hitting the DOT dockets now.
160 mikefrommke : That isn't a beyond perimeter slot though. Its probably one of the old MCI or MKE slots. Interesting choice. I'd think they might try DSM-DCA too...
161 SANFan : Perhaps the timing of this F9 application isn't just a coincidence? Maybe Frontier is purposely trying to help their chances of securing an award in
162 SouthernDC9 : The JAN-DCA US flight is temporary though, until the slot DL gave up by ending that trip is re-bid - if anything US swept in as some knight-in-shinin
163 mikefrommke : I'm pretty sure F9 has 2-3 slots at DCA that currently don't have plans for the summer. It looks like SDF is one of them, and I think the schedule wi
164 mariner : I'm puzzled as to why Frontier would need to apply to the DOT to use within perimeter slots for a within perimeter destination. I don't recall any ap
165 RWA380 : Really, I thought all the 8 were able to be changed, this gives the legacies a unfair upper hand with their given slot, I thought part of the idea wa
166 iaddca : March 12 is the deadline for the new slot applications
167 RWA380 : So, in the next 6 days, we'll all know who applied for what? Then when is the awards ceremony for the lucky winners? If indeed the last 4 can't be mo
168 b757capt : Kind 'n caring or whatever the care might be it is beyond evident that the DOT has no love for US right now. It would seem every opportunity they get
169 steex : It's a trade-off. Keep in mind that the smaller carriers are getting new slots that aren't currently in use, and a carrier like VX would be receiving
170 MAH4546 : Southwest has applied for DCA-OKC-DAL.
171 D L X : I can't see why they wouldn't get that. There is so little service to that area of the country non-stop from Washington, let alone DCA.
172 steex : Am I missing something? DCA-OKC isn't beyond-perimeter. Would DOT really award a new in-perimeter slot as part of the beyond-perimeter proceedings? A
173 Atrude777 : No more or less then other cities? OKC has non stop to BWI on Southwest, and Non stop to IAD on United..now DCA Fills in the void if..this is true. D
174 GRUIAD : This is a separate docket OST-2000-7182 for a pair of within perimeter slots and totally unrelated to the beyond perimeter proceeding. WN is applying
175 HPRamper : This has to be separate. For one, the DOT has to approve the four winners after all the bids are submitted - and for two, WN isn't going to use their
176 steex : I presume DOT wouldn't waste a precious beyond-perimeter award on something that anyone with a slot could start anytime, though. To your second point
177 Post contains images point2point : Paperwork...... paperwork....... paperwork....... paperwork........ This is Washington DC after all, the nation's capital. If you need to go to the b
178 Atrude777 : Then how is UA/F9 flying DCA-DEN, and US flying DCA-LAS? It isn't airline specific, the city/airport itself is exempt from the perimeter so I would c
179 SANFan : And the attention on DCA continues... I just can't help think that all this action regarding Reagan Airport is not just coincidentally happening right
180 mariner : These are the AIR21 slots which Delta gave up when it stopped flying DCA-JAN. US is flying DCA-JAN at the moment on a temporary approval from the DOT
181 texan : Nope. While it is within perimeter, nobody wants to serve it with 56-seat or less RJs. Even Legend, when operating, flew to IAD instead of DCA. I don
182 StarshipSAN : Those slots are both airline specific and city/airport specific. They can't be moved to another city and no other airline can operate those slots if
183 md3 : No city or airport itself is exempt from the perimeter rule. If an airport is >1,250 miles from DCA it is literally beyond the perimeter. F9 to DE
184 steex : Alex, to further elaborate, I think you're mixing up the DCA and LGA perimeter rules. Despite being further than 1,500 statute miles from LGA, servic
185 FlyPNS1 : Not necessarily. WN and F9 can make the case that they are serving larger markets with larger planes which provides more consumer benefit than US fly
186 mariner : Indeed, and both airlines have made that case, and both airlines plan to use larger aircraft. But since they are AIR21 slots, designed in large part
187 FlyPNS1 : Both OKC and SDF are classified as small communities like JAN.
188 mariner : They may be. That doesn't change how I feel about it. I think it sucks for a small city to lose service when an airline is ready to continue that ser
189 slcdeltarumd11 : I am just happy to see that both southwest and frontier are both interested in getting more DCA flights. Unless I missed the news I hope we hear from
190 gigneil : Dude, neither are within the perimeter - even remotely. They hold exemptions similar to the ones this thread is discussing. NS
191 FlyPNS1 : The DOT didn't exactly have a choice. They were sued and told that they should not have given SY the slot in the first place. However, I agree that i
192 mariner : I understand all that went on and the simple way to do it would have been what was - eventually - done. There did not need to be a hiatus. And becaus
193 plateman : Based on article from San Fran Chronicle today ... Virgin America has filed for SFO-DCA
194 SANFan : It hasn't shown up uon the docket yet but that might not be until tomorrow. SFO is no surprise from VX but I wonder if that was their only applicatio
195 Post contains images SANFan : Well, today has pretty much come and gone (in WAS anyway) and still no sign of anything from VX on Docket 29. For that matter, nothing from anyone els
196 smoot4208 : Why should any of the LCCs apply early? All that does is give their competitors more time to make a better application. Just like the slot auctions, I
197 SANFan : My post was mainly regarding THIS (posted yesterday): Apparently Virgin has NOT filed for anything yet. I actually agree and posted previously that I
198 smoot4208 : I can go ahead and say that that statement is completely false. US has spent tons of money lobbying for more beyond perimeter flights. They will be m
199 ASFlyer : I'm not sure what "Chester" is doing because I don't have any idea who that is but I've heard Alaska will submit for DCA-SAN/SJC/PDX. Haven't seen an
200 SANFan : Sorry I didn't add *sarcasm* after my comment. I was 98% kidding about that option for US. Ahhhh, thank you for that 'Flyer. Pretty much what is expe
201 Post contains links and images SANFan : Let's continue the discussions on a new thread: Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 3 (by SANFan Mar 9 2012 in Civil Aviation) Things are going
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