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WN: 737MAX Could Arrive Early  
User currently offlineQANTAS747-438 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1935 posts, RR: 2
Posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9849 times:

Looks like Southwest is confident the 737MAX could be in the fleet a little earlier than expected.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boe...ive-early-southwest-ceo-2012-02-27


My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5766 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 9620 times:

Don't tell Ryanair... they're still calling it dog food.

I seriously hope that Boeing knocks one out of the park with this bird (and delivers it ON TIME, in sharp contrast to the 787 program), and M-O-L is stuck with some Chinese junker that offers 82% dispatch reliability.


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4395 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 9522 times:

Let us hope he is right - and that us hope he can not only get the 737MAX early, but also the engines which dominate the time scale.

User currently offlinegen2stew From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 94 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 9473 times:

"There's a decent chance they can actually beat that target," said Southwest Chief Executive Gary Kelly in an interview.

Hmm, the CEO of an an airline who has no engeniering experience says the MAX'll be early. Sure. I, the metiorolgist say: it's going to snow in Miami. In 10 miniutes.
While a share of parts and designs may be shared with the 787 (and we know how prompt that was) what about the myriad of parts, designs, and other unique quirks that are not not shared...?

I am willing to place my wager on the side of history. Barely on time or delayed.



I don't know why blessings wear disguises. If I were a blessing, I'd run around nude!
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6875 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9343 times:

Quoting gen2stew (Reply 3):

I am willing to place my wager on the side of history. Barely on time or delayed.

On the other hand, the 787 debacle may have shaken Boeing management enough that they realize that it is better to underpromise and overdeliver than the reverse, and they have set a schedule that they are very confident that they can achieve. If that is the case then there is a very good chance that they can beat it, and considering how close WN management is with Boeing it is likely that Kelly speaks the truth. At this point I am inclined to believe him; he is certainly a more credible source than anyone from Boeing would be.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineDelimit From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1508 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9238 times:

Let's keep the scope of what's involved here in mind. Boeing is doing pretty basic stuff. I'd be shocked if they couldn't deliver on time, or even early, if CFM has an engine for them to bolt on.

User currently offlinegarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 9005 times:

Quoting gen2stew (Reply 3):

I am willing to place my wager on the side of history. Barely on time or delayed.

So, you base history solely on one program? That's quite a narrow point of view.
What about all the other programs Boeing brought to fruition early or on time?



arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineflyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 576 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 9002 times:

Quoting Delimit (Reply 5):
Let's keep the scope of what's involved here in mind. Boeing is doing pretty basic stuff. I'd be shocked if they couldn't deliver on time, or even early, if CFM has an engine for them to bolt on.



Given Boeing's and CFMs own news the 737 Max engines will be nothing of the stock to bolt on: it will be the 737 MAX customized Leap-X variant they have just defined.

I would guess there is some wishful thinking- requiring an updated engine as compered to the NEO one, I would be surprised if they even can shorten the timing with an enhanced engine.

However if there is a change from last reports and the MAX engine is now (since a week or so) again reconfigured to be more close to the original Leap-X for the NEO (in the core, not in adaptation to fan and wing ), I could see a shorter timing.

Who knows if Boeing and CFM go 2 steps now with the engine
- first a quicker introduction using the Core technology more close to the NEO,
- and then after 2 years a PIP or upgrade to the new core and other materials to enhance for the final fuel burn improvement.

from a body development, I am sure Boeing can realize a shorter timing.

Pure speculation based on 'earlier' delivery comment of course.

regards

flyglobal


User currently offlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 663 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8955 times:

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Thread starter):
Looks like Southwest is confident the 737MAX could be in the fleet a little earlier than expected.

But AerCap Leasing CEO didn't expect the first 737 Max to arrive until 2019.

"Aengus Kelly, chief executive of aircraft lessor AerCap Holdings said in an interview last week that he didn't expect the first 737 Max to arrive until 2019."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boe...ive-early-southwest-ceo-2012-02-27


User currently offlinegen2stew From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 94 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8863 times:

Quoting garpd (Reply 6):

No, I base my skeptisism on the 787, 747i, 777, and pretty much any other project of this magitude (untested/unproven engines, teething prblems with the fasteners...).



I don't know why blessings wear disguises. If I were a blessing, I'd run around nude!
User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7857 times:

My understanding was that the 2017 delivery was said in an effort of under promising to eventually over deliver. I cant remember where I read that but I'm sure some folks here can vouch for that.

Quoting Delimit (Reply 5):

  


User currently offlinegarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7836 times:

Quoting gen2stew (Reply 9):

And thereby ignoring the 707, 727, 737, 747, 757 and 767? Plus the countless military and space projects?
You realy need to get some perspective.



arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5419 posts, RR: 30
Reply 12, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7619 times:

It won't be Boeing delaying the plane...it'll be CFM if anything. 2016 still gives them 4 solid years to get an engine ready. It'll be based on research already in progress for years and it's not like they're new to the business.

I think it's way to early to predict either way but I'd be very surprised if it's late.



What the...?
User currently offlinesolarflyer22 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Nov 2009, 1040 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7344 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
I seriously hope that Boeing knocks one out of the park with this bird (and delivers it ON TIME, in sharp contrast to the 787 program), and M-O-L is stuck with some Chinese junker that offers 82% dispatch reliability.

I would too. Hopefully there are some lessons learned from the 787 and 748 programs but Boeing seems to have Project Management difficulties in general.


User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12462 posts, RR: 46
Reply 14, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6291 times:
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Quoting garpd (Reply 6):
So, you base history solely on one program?



Probably not. While the 787 has been a disaster of a program, the 748 is far more relevant. This was a similar "low-risk" development of an existing frame. It's over a year late, short on promised performance and massively over cost. This is far more indicative of current abilities than...

Quoting garpd (Reply 11):
And thereby ignoring the 707, 727, 737, 747, 757 and 767?



Most of those programs are totally irrelevant to today's Boeing. Recent history and performance is what counts, not what happened over 50 years ago in the case of the 707.

Quoting garpd (Reply 11):
Plus the countless military and space projects?



Has any military program ever been delivered on-time and on-budget?   



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineblueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3967 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 6115 times:
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Quoting rotating14 (Reply 10):
My understanding was that the 2017 delivery was said in an effort of under promising to eventually over deliver.

I'd wager that the actual timetable was driven both by the desire to under-promise and over-deliver, and by the need to minimize the lead Airbus and the NEO have.



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5976 times:

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 15):

Indeed! Lets hope the folks at CFM can come up with something on time as Joe has stated above.   


User currently offline737tdi From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 810 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5811 times:
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The biggest problem I see with the whole program is final determination of engine fan size. I know there are specs. but it will all come down to this. Landing gear redesign, pylon redesign, fuel delivery, wheel well areas (to accommodate the new gear) and vertical stab./rudder for the change in thrust rating. The other major components will remain basically the same. IMO.

User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3393 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5641 times:

Quoting 737tdi (Reply 17):

The biggest problem I see with the whole program is final determination of engine fan size. I know there are specs. but it will all come down to this. Landing gear redesign, pylon redesign, fuel delivery, wheel well areas (to accommodate the new gear) and vertical stab./rudder for the change in thrust rating. The other major components will remain basically the same. IMO.

um, most of that isn't required. They are doing a nose lift, the MLG is going to be the same. Thrust so far looks to be much the same range as currently availble on the 737NG, so rudder mods will be minimal at best.


User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 19, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 4560 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
While the 787 has been a disaster of a program, the 748 is far more relevant. This was a similar "low-risk" development of an existing frame. It's over a year late, short on promised performance and massively over cost.

The 737MAX doesn't have a new wing (source of the flutter issues on the 747-8), isn't sharing an engine with the 787 (the source of the performance shortfall), isn't sharing engineering or factory resources with the 787 (source of the delay and cost overrun), and uses an entirely different factory. The 747-8 experience isn't particularly relevant at all.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):

Quoting garpd (Reply 11):
Plus the countless military and space projects?

Has any military program ever been delivered on-time and on-budget?

Most of them, in fact. Boeing defense has 300+ projects...you only hear about the late ones. They just finished a delivery of F/A-18s that was ahead of schedule and under budget.

Tom.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 20, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3398 times:
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The risk for the 737MAX schedule will be the engine. Note: That is true for the NEO too (although the NEO has a 2nd engine)... So this implies GE was willing to forgo schedule... Or maybe an internal milestone was met and thus schedules will slack could be 'brought to the left' a little.

For Boeing, there will be the potential of buffeting or shock wave interaction between the new engine and wing... But they should know enough about that now from wind-tunnel testing and CFD (notice I wrote both... neither solves the issue on its own).

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):

Don't tell Ryanair... they're still calling it dog food.

FR is still negotiating.  
Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
and M-O-L is stuck with some Chinese junker that offers 82% dispatch reliability.

Would FR's board of directors let MOL risk their bottom line on an unproven design? MOL speaking in public is a brash 'spokesmodel' that does a good job of gaining FR free publicity that cuts down their required advertisement budget.

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 7):
Given Boeing's and CFMs own news the 737 Max engines will be nothing of the stock to bolt on: it will be the 737 MAX customized Leap-X variant they have just defined.

There might be some slack as the parts will be 're-sized' but similar. I do not believe CFM is changing the number of stages or blade technology... So developing two scaled cores in parallel is actually pretty quick. I would bet CFM kept some parts the same (e.g., bearings) as the time to fully redesign would be too far off.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1583 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1738 times:

Quoting queb (Reply 8):
But AerCap Leasing CEO didn't expect the first 737 Max to arrive until 2019.

Maybe THEIR first 737MAX?

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 12):
It won't be Boeing delaying the plane...it'll be CFM if anything.

The will affect the NEO too, if CFM makes a mess of the LEAP-X. But the NEO has P&W's GTF as an alternative.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
Probably not. While the 787 has been a disaster of a program, the 748 is far more relevant. This was a similar "low-risk" development of an existing frame. It's over a year late, short on promised performance and massively over cost. This is far more indicative of current abilities than...

Boeing screwed up the 747-8 program as well as the 787, but not in the least part because the 787 sucked up lots of resources from the 747-8 program.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
Most of those programs are totally irrelevant to today's Boeing. Recent history and performance is what counts,

If that is what counts and aircraft manufacturers won't learn from previous mistakes, it won't be good news for the A350XWB and A320NEO... those programs will be years late as well then  
Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
Has any military program ever been delivered on-time and on-budget?

Yes, the Lockheed F117 stealth fighter. We can still learn from Kelly Johnson's 'Keep it simple' principles.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlinetarheelwings From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1471 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 14):
Has any military program ever been delivered on-time and on-budget?

By all accounts, Boeing is performing extremely well on the P8 Poseidon.....to name a current military program based on the 737.


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