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BD Decimated In LHR Slot Allocations S12  
User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7531 posts, RR: 17
Posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 9633 times:

Airport Coordination Ltd have published their "Start of Season" report for LHR for the Summer 2012 Season.

In terms of slots allocated to the various operators it shows:

Very significant growth in the number of slots allocated to BA - plus 158 weekly slots.

Huge growth in the number of slots allocated to LH - plus 248 slots

Decimation in the number of slots allocated to BD - minus 339.

The numbers of weekly arrival and departure slots allocated at the start of the Summer 2011 and Summer 2012 Seasons for LHR's largest operators ar:

BA: 2011 - 4,040 ..... 2012 - 4,198 ..... +3.9%
LH: 2011 - 528 ........ 2012 - 776 ....... +47.0%
BD: 2011 - 800 ........2012 - 461 .........-42.4%
EI: 2011 - 332 ..........2012 - 330 ...........-0.6%
VS: 2011 - 288 .........2012 - 310 ..........+7.6%
SK: 2011 - 286 .........2012 - 272 ..........-4.9%
AA: 2011 - 236 .........2012 - 250 ..........+5.9%
UA: 2011 - 140 .........2012 - 238 .........+70.0%

(Note that CO had 98 weekly slots in 2011, so the "corrected" UA figures are 238 and 238 with no overall change.)

Until the publication of these figures I think most of us had thought that the proposed IAG purchase of BD would include around 700 slots. Clearly it will not. If we add the BA and BD and IB numbers for 2012 - IB being 154 - we get a total of 4,813 weekly slots or 50.5 per cent of the 9,524 available slots. This is a little less than has been quoted by VS and others of around 52 per cent.

25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2561 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9534 times:

In the details of the proposed purchase by IAG of bmi, it has been specified that it would mean IAG having 56 new daily slots, that is 392 weekly. Yet, the Summer allocation lists 461. I can only guess that some are for use by bmi regional and will go to whoever buys it.

[Edited 2012-03-01 02:37:55]

User currently offlineleftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 693 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9475 times:

461 arrival / departure slots corresponds to around 33 daily round trips... That is tiny for an airline that gets so much attention on here... I know they also operate from other UK airports but it is nowhere near their LHR operation.

And what's with LH? Do / will they really operate 55 daily flights to LHR?


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3703 posts, RR: 19
Reply 3, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9362 times:

I really think that this means that both IAG and LH have done their homework in studying what conditions would be approved.

User currently offlinefcogafa From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 799 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9327 times:

Could this just be an interim thing as there is no way DLH could use all those extra slots?

User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7531 posts, RR: 17
Reply 5, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9327 times:

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 1):
In the details of the proposed purchase of IAG of bmi, it has been specified that it would mean IAG having 56 new daily slots, that is 392 weekly.

Neither IAG nor Lufthansa Group have published such detail. However the media have looked at what has been published and come to a wrong conclusion.

The published data for BD slots at the start of the Summer 11 Season was 800 slots. Since then the only announcement has been that BA bought 6 daily slot pairs. This amounts to 84 weekly slots if the slot pairs were all seven-days-a-week pairs. This left BD with apparently 716 slots. 716 weekly slots divided by 14 to give daily slot pairs gives a little more than 51 slot pairs. So very clearly neither IAG nor Lufthansa Group could be talking about the transfer of 56 daily slots.

However we now see that LH have officially increased their slot holding at LHR from 528 to 776. Where did these 248 weekly slots come from if not from BD? And BA's slot holding is up by 158. But the public announcement talked of up to 84 - 6 daily slot pairs. So where did the other 74 weekly slots come from?

And if these additional BA and LH slots did not come from BD where did the 339 slots they operated at the start of Summer 2011 but which they no longer have go to?

Of course one of the startling features of these latest numbers is the very significant growth in LH LHR operations. When they purchased BD they operated - at the start of the Summer 2009 Season, 406 weekly slots. Three years later that have almost doubled their presence as they will operate 776 slots this coming season. The actual growth of 91.1 per cent makes that projected for IAG look paltry.

What has happened to other LH group members in this period?

LX have grown from 84 to 182 slots or by 116.7 per cent.

OS have declined from 70 to 56 or by 20.0 per cent.

SN have grown from zero to 50 weekly slots.

The unfortuneate outcome of all of this is that if BD is not bought by IAG it will be a shadow of its former self. I doubt that it will have sufficient weight to survive for very long



Quoting fcogafa (Reply 4):
Could this just be an interim thing as there is no way DLH could use all those extra slots?


I do not think so.

If they do not use them on at least 80 per cent of all possible occasions between 25 March and 26 October they will be confiscated. But, of course, if they have thew slots and retain some of BD's aircraft they could continue to operate some of BD's services provided they were tio destinations within the EU or to destinatinations covered by an EU as opposed to a British bilateral air service agreement.

As I see it these latest published figures give us a whole different view about what IAG may be negotiating to buy. I have previousl;y expressed the view that the BD operation would be impossible for VS to absorgb because of its size and that it would give IAG a significant challenge to avoid severe indigestion. Absorbing around 460 operational LHR slots would be significantly less challenging than more than 700.

[Edited 2012-03-01 03:34:29 by SA7700]

User currently offlineAIR MALTA From Malta, joined Sep 2001, 2501 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9131 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 6):
Absorbing around 460 operational LHR slots would be significantly less challenging than more than 700

May be this has to do with BA having given £60M to allow BD to operate. This money would have been secured against a number of slots if the transaction does not go through. In this case, LH would transfer the slots to themselves and lease them back to BD to continue operating its services. If the transaction fails, LH would then transfer those slots to BA (including some aircraft and crews), BD would fold and the remaining assets sold.



Next flights : BRU-ZRH-CAI (LX)/ BRU-FCO-TLV (AZ)
User currently offlinejamesontheroad From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2005, 544 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8729 times:

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 1):
I can only guess that some are for use by bmi regional and will go to whoever buys it.

BMI-R holds no slots at LHR; they fly for BMI "mainline" and use their slots.


User currently offlinemdavies06 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2009, 384 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8472 times:

I thought the BD agreement is to transfer 56 pairs of daily slots. Isn't that equal to 784 slots on a weekly basis? If this figure of 784 is correct then we will see LH giving back most of their new allocation gains right?

User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8387 times:

I'm totally confused now. (Easily achieved)

Am I right in assuming then that LH have sucked all the marrow out of BD ?

No wonder it was cheap.



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2561 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8312 times:

Quoting jamesontheroad (Reply 7):
BMI-R holds no slots at LHR; they fly for BMI "mainline" and use their slots

That bmi regional hold no sots of their own is clear from the ACL report. But if under a new ownership they will have no LHR access at all would be a rightful concern of competition authorities.


User currently offlineBongodog1964 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2006, 3585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8231 times:

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 9):
I'm totally confused now. (Easily achieved)

Am I right in assuming then that LH have sucked all the marrow out of BD ?

No wonder it was cheap.

Its always confusing at the best of times to work out who owns what slots at LHR, one example is VS where some are adamant that they have given up slots, others say they didn't they were just leased and the lease ended. Thats with a stand alone airline with oinly 300 or so slots. Thus its not suprising that in the case of a failing airline which is part of a group where 3 or 4 others in the group also operate into LHR, which has also sold slots to a 3rd party, that we can't work out whats happening.

The only people who probably know are, senior management at LH, senior management at IAG and the EU competition people.

I note that BD are presently operating 50 flights a day at LHR (700 weekly slots), anyone know what their summer schedule is ? as this will give soem idea if they are intending to operate flights using slots transferred to LH ?

It may well be that in the event of IAG taking over BD that ownership of some slots would remain with LH for a period of time with IAG leasing them. Accountants will do it whatever way they can to reduce tax demands.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7531 posts, RR: 17
Reply 12, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8186 times:

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 10):
That bmi regional hold no sots of their own is clear from the ACL report. But if under a new ownership they will have no LHR access at all would be a rightful concern of competition authorities.

Another confusing issue. There has been no word from IAG or the Lufthansa Group as to whether or not the separate sale of bmi Regional will include any LHR slots or not. After all since thei formal address of that part of BD is Kirkhill Business House on the Kirkhill Business Estate at Dyce, Aberdeen it is quite possible that some LHR slots would be included in the package that Lufthansa Group wish to sell as bmi Regional to enable bmi Regional (in its new guise) to continue to operate ABZ-LHR.

If this is the case where are those slots for Summer 2012? I would assume they are in the BD bundle of 461. But they could equally be in the LH bundle of 776.

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 9):
Am I right in assuming then that LH have sucked all the marrow out of BD ?

Could be. BD had 1,091 weekly slots at the start of Summer 2009. Now three years later they are left with only 461. Lufthansa Group appear to have transferred 370 to LH (they had only 406 three years ago), 98 to LX (they are up from 84 to 182) and 50 to SN (up from zero). That's a total of 518 or 47.5 per cent of BD's 2009 holding. Add in the slots already sold by Lufthansa Group to BA and more than half of BD's most valuable asset has already gone.


User currently onlineLJ From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4429 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7965 times:

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 4):
Could this just be an interim thing as there is no way DLH could use all those extra slots?

As per another thread OS is increasing VIE-LHR..Guess where the slots are coming from.

OS Adding Frequency To LHR (by LOWS Feb 29 2012 in Civil Aviation)


User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7918 times:

W701 - your figures for IAG don't include AA's slots do they ?

I mean seeing as IAG now have a joint venture with AA and they revenue share etc

There must be some value attached to AA's slot holding for IAG ? Ditto QF and soon JAL.

What is the combined holding at LHR for AA , BA and IB (IAG) combined ?

And what about QF and the approaching JAL joint venture ?

AF group and LH group holdings including their affiliates must be 'huge' at CDG, AMS and FRA, ZRH etc !



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7822 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
Lufthansa Group appear to have transferred 370 to LH (they had only 406 three years ago), 98 to LX (they are up from 84 to 182) and 50 to SN (up from zero). That's a total of 518 or 47.5 per cent of BD's 2009 holding. Add in the slots already sold by Lufthansa Group to BA and more than half of BD's most valuable asset has already gone.

Nothing against LH it's not their fault but when you read the above and then you read the myriad of reports like the one below...

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/bu...afe-claims-ba-owners-16124624.html

...I do find it rather amazing that BA are getting all the flack !

Where was all the concern when LH purchased BD are starting transferring slots to its non UK domestic operations ?

Sometimes the regulators seem to get it all wrong.

Just because one company purchasing another doesn't create a monopoly it doesn't mean they cant inflict huge damage !



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7531 posts, RR: 17
Reply 16, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7685 times:

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 14):
W701 - your figures for IAG don't include AA's slots do they ?

No. While it is true that since they moved to LHR from LGW all the slots used by DL were until now listed by the slot coordinator under AF, all of AA's slots have been and still are listed separately. For the S12 Season they are listed as operating 250. However DL are listed separately for the first time for S12.

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 14):
What is the combined holding at LHR for AA , BA and IB (IAG) combined ?

And what about QF and the approaching JAL joint venture ?

For S12:

AA 250

BA 4,198
IB 154

Total IAG 4,352 (or 45.7 per cent of the total of 9,524)

JL 14
QF 28

Total AA + IAG + JL + QF 4,644 (or 48.8 per cent of total)

What this latest data reveals is that BA who had 4,040 weekly slots at start of S11 and will have 4,198 at the start S12, an increase of 158, have somewhere obtained an additional 74 weekly slots over and above the up to 84 that it was announced it had purchased from the Lufthansa Group. This latest growth in BA slots again goes to prove that where there is a will there is a way.

If we go back to the start of S03 when BA had 3,602 weekly LHR slots it can be seen that BA have increased their slot holding by 596 or 16.5 per cent in nine years without taking over any other airline excepting only the slots it obtained from IB when it took over all IAG's LHR-BCN operations. Now 596 weekly slots is almost equivalent to the operation of two airlines of the size of VS. So one wonders whether there is any basis for VS's complaints about BA's LHR domination. If VS had done what BA has done over the last nine years then they would be almost three times their current size! But it is not. It operated 230 weekly slots at the start of S03 and will operate 310 at the start of S12. That's a healthy increase of just over a third in nine years. But a growth of 80 slots pales a little against the BA growth of 596. And clearly only the slots transferred to operate the BA service to BCN were not available to VS if they had really wanted them.


User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6820 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 16):

Thanks W701.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 16):
Total AA + IAG + JL + QF 4,644 (or 48.8 per cent of total)

Plus what's left of BD ? (whatever that turns out to be...?)



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlineawthompson From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 475 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 5502 times:

Does this translate to a reduction in the BMI timetable somewhere?
If so what routes are likely to be affected?


User currently offlinedhr From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2007, 117 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 5361 times:

Slots are not always bought, they tend to be leased out to the highest bidders when a carrier doesn't plan to use all of their grandfathered rights.

User currently onlineanstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5242 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 5361 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 16):
QF 28


I thought QF were dropping 2 LHR frequencies from the end of March2012- so peesumably the slots will go (to BA I expect)?


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7531 posts, RR: 17
Reply 21, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 3832 times:

Quoting anstar (Reply 20):
I thought QF were dropping 2 LHR frequencies from the end of March2012- so peesumably the slots will go (to BA I expect)?

Yes. The Airport Coordination Ltd data shows the number of weekly LHR slots operated by QF to have been 56 last summer. This coming summer, as stated above, that number reduces to 28.

It is also a very reasonable assumption that BA have obtained the 28 QF weekly slots. This is not simply because of their relationship as oneworld partners. Nor is it only because, as implied in the last paragraph of Reply 16, that BA appear to be prepared to vigorously compete for all useful LHR slots that become available. It is probably mostly to do with the Joint Services Agreement between the two airlines.

Under the JSA BA and QF share both all the costs and all the revenue on all their flights between Europe and Australia. Hence QF will financially benefit from the additional flights BA will operate to HKG that will be timed to make transfer to a QF HKG-SYD flight convenient. I assume that this arrangement is more cost effective than the current QF flight to LHR as it does not leave their aircraft sitting on the ground for around 12 hours before it returns to Australia.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 18):
Does this translate to a reduction in the BMI timetable somewhere?

Again I do not think this is clear. If the sale of BD to IAG is finalised one imagines that there will be an immediate reduction in BD services. But even that is far from certain. It would depend on what LH are planning to do with the additional slots that the Lufthansa Group appears to have transferred to LH. It could be that LH will want an IAG owned BD to continue to slot sit on at least some of these slots for a period of time. The Lufthansa Group could make this part of the condition of sale of BD to IAG.

So while a reduction in the BD timetable looks certain in the longer term it may not happen at the time of the sale or immediately after it always assuming that the sale goes ahead.

Looking at the surprisingly low number of BD slots for the coming summer season, several explanations are possible. These could include that the 700+ weekly slots most thought would be included in the sale of BD were more than BA could comfortably take on. They could also include a plan for Lufthansa Group to recover more of its investment in BD by selling more LHR slots on the open market. There is also the possibility that some LHR slots have been removed from the BD operation so that they can be sold as part of the bmi Regional package.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5576 posts, RR: 5
Reply 22, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3771 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 21):
It is also a very reasonable assumption that BA have obtained the 28 QF weekly slots

I am 90% certain that QF have leased those slots to BA. They have definitely gone to BA, but I don't think it was an out-and-out sale.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 21):
Under the JSA BA and QF share both all the costs and all the revenue on all their flights between Europe and Australia. Hence QF will financially benefit from the additional flights BA will operate to HKG that will be timed to make transfer to a QF HKG-SYD flight convenient. I assume that this arrangement is more cost effective than the current QF flight to LHR as it does not leave their aircraft sitting on the ground for around 12 hours before it returns to Australia.

Sentence 2 is correct, sentence 1 unfortunately isn't. The JSA between QF and BA only covers SIN. However, as you said, both airlines stand to make cost savings by dropping their non-SIN tag routes: QF drops HKG and BKK to LHR, and BA drops BKK-SYD. The airlines do code share closely on the BKK and HKG Kangaroo Routes, and Aus-HKG-LHR - for example - is very much a bookable routing. It's just that QF will collect the revenue for Aus-HKG and BA for HKG-LHR. On LHR-SIN-SYD/MEL (and I think FRA-SIN-SYD as well, oddly enough) the two airlines split it 50-50 as per the JSA.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7531 posts, RR: 17
Reply 23, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3241 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 22):
Sentence 2 is correct, sentence 1 unfortunately isn't. The JSA between QF and BA only covers SIN.

Are you sure about this?

The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission web site when renewing authorisation for the JSA said:

"The JSA allows the parties to coordinate commercial arrangements in providing air transport services, primarily between Australia and Europe. It has been in operation for the past 14 years."

No where does it suggest that its authorisation applies only to those flights through SIN.

The Travigators web site goes at lot further. It specifically identifies HKG as being covered by the agreement, It says:

"With the help of this agreement the carriers can offer code sharing flights and will be able to coordinate flight schedules and pricing on services operating between the United Kingdom and Australia via Hong Kong, Bangkok and Singapore. The both carriers can share sales, travel outlets and share use of ground handling & aircraft maintenance services."

BA and QF claim that the agreement also covers all flights between BKK, HKG and SIN and SYD as well as all flights from LHR to all four of these destinations here:

http://traveltradepartners.ba.com/downloads/ba_Game_PDF3.pdf

Specifically they say:

"The JSA covers the following routes:
"• London (LHR) to Bangkok (BKK), Hong Kong (HKG), Singapore (SIN) and Sydney (SYD)
"• BKK, HKG and SIN to SYD
"• SYD to BKK, HKG, SIN and LHR"

Is there a source that conflicts with these statements and claims?


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5576 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3199 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 23):
Is there a source that conflicts with these statements and claims?

ANet. Oh wow, OK it would seem that a lot of ANetters are wrong: that the JSA only covers SIN has been repeated so many times on QF threads that I took it to be true!

I'm sorry, but thank you for re-educating me.


Incidentally, I would have to disagree with the bit about "more convenient schedules". The new QF times to BKK (and to a lesser extend HKG) are anything but convenient for BA connections, something like a 5 hour layover.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinesydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 3061 posts, RR: 19
Reply 25, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2932 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 22):
I am 90% certain that QF have leased those slots to BA. They have definitely gone to BA, but I don't think it was an out-and-out sale.

QF have stated publicly that the 2 daily slots they are no longer using will be leased to BA. QF retain ownership of the slots however.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 24):
that the JSA only covers SIN has been repeated so many times on QF threads that I took it to be true!

It's a common mis-understanding.


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