Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
2011 Safest Ever Year For Aviation - Except Mena  
User currently offlinehaveasafeflight From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2935 times:

According to IATA, globally, the accident rate for 2011 was the lowest in aviation history, surpassing the previous mark set in 2010:

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/mena-...sens-in-2011-says-iata-448764.html

Unfortunately however, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was the exception, with its air safety record worsening almost by a factor of 3!

To quote from the article above:

"While the global accident rate (measured in hull losses per million flights of Western-built jets) was 0.37, the equivalent of one accident every 2.7 million flights, the MENA rate worsened to 2.02 from 0.72 in 2010".

Interestingly, Africa saw a 56% improvement in its air crash record, compared with 2010.

Any thoughts on why the MENA region has suffered such an extreme decline in it's air safety record relative to the other parts of the world?

11 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2773 times:

I am not sure whether one can argue that overall safety has decreased in the MENA region. The number of hull losses (3) is up on 2010 but according to the figures produced by IATA the rate has been volatile:
Middle East & North Africa
2005 3.84; 2006 0.00; 2007 1.08; 2008 1.89; 2009 3.32; 2010 0.72; 2011 2.02

The figures need to be read with caution because the hull loss figures are based on Western-built jets and do not include turbo-props or Eastern-built jets. One of the three reported hull losses (an Iran Air 727) was fatal.

The total number of accidents (All Aircraft Types, Eastern and Western-built)decreased from 10 in 2010 to 8 in 2011.
So fewer accidents but bigger consequences, it seems.

http://static.tijd.be/upload/IATA_3360659-286098.pdf


User currently offlineZKCIF From Lithuania, joined Oct 2010, 290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2718 times:

And it seems we are having a fantastic year again: it's 7 Marh already, and no hull losses at all.

The comparison of year to year should always be taken with a box of salt; it is always more sensible to compare 5 year averages as the sample of one year is very low.2011 looks just fine in comparison with the average of 2006-2010.


User currently offlinehaveasafeflight From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2531 times:

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 1):
I am not sure whether one can argue that overall safety has decreased in the MENA region.

The IATA data in the article listed in the opening thread compared the MENA region's 2010 safety record with 2011. In this regard the safety record worsened almost by a factor of 3. For sure the overall safety needs to be looked at in a different context, but in this case its a simple 2010 to 2011 comparison.

The UK's Guardian newspaper has also picked up on this story:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2.../safest-year-aviation-history-iata


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22726 posts, RR: 20
Reply 4, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2485 times:

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 2):
The comparison of year to year should always be taken with a box of salt; it is always more sensible to compare 5 year averages as the sample of one year is very low.2011 looks just fine in comparison with the average of 2006-2010.
All comparisons of this sort should probably be taken with a heap of salt because the numbers simply aren't large enough to be meaningful.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinehaveasafeflight From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2351 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 4):
All comparisons of this sort should probably be taken with a heap of salt because the numbers simply aren't large enough to be meaningful.

What's with the general skepticism with regard to year on year comparisons? After all, most of America's corporations regularly measure their performance by using precisely this method, i.e.year on year earnings. The same would hold true if an airline were to post it's highest ever profits, i.e. profits were higher than any given previous year in its history. All IATA are saying is that 2011 was the safest year ever recorded for Western built jets - with all regions of the world showing improvements on 2010's safety levels with the exception of the MENA region.

Fly Safe
Ali  


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22726 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2303 times:

Quoting haveasafeflight (Reply 5):
After all, most of America's corporations regularly measure their performance by using precisely this method, i.e.year on year earnings.

The issue is with the significance of changes in single digit numbers, not the significance of annual measures.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinerichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4242 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2236 times:

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 2):
And it seems we are having a fantastic year again: it's 7 Marh already, and no hull losses at all.

Bite your tongue, knock on wood! Let's hope 2012 stays this way!

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 1):
The total number of accidents (All Aircraft Types, Eastern and Western-built)decreased from 10 in 2010 to 8 in 2011.
So fewer accidents but bigger consequences, it seems.

Ah, the beauty of statistics! They don't lie but they sometimes don't tell the entire story!



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4304 posts, RR: 36
Reply 8, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 2159 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 4):
All comparisons of this sort should probably be taken with a heap of salt because the numbers simply aren't large enough to be meaningful.

But there is no denial that aviation has become much much safer in the last 20 years. If you look back at even the 1980s, there was a major accident every few weeks, often from major European and US airlines, while passenger numbers have doubled since. But in the last 10 years, there have been less then a handful crashes by the major airlines like Air France, THY. The few big crashes like the TAM, GOL and Kenya Airways have been in developing countries, not that that's less bad but overall safety is improving almost everywhere. Iran is still not good, but even Nigeria and Indonesia have less crashes then they used to a few years ago.



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlinehaveasafeflight From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1949 times:

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 8):
Iran is still not good

Sadly it does not look like Iran's air safety standards are improving. In the past 6 months alone four Iranian operated A300's were involved in incidents caused by burst tires, that's an average of one every 6 weeks... and not to forget the infamous Iran Air Boeing 727 incident where the front landing gear failed to deploy:

Iran Air Isfahan Burst Tyre On Landing - 747SP? (by haveasafeflight Mar 4 2012 in Civil Aviation)
Iran Air 727 Landed Without Nose Gear (by Gonzalo Oct 19 2011 in Civil Aviation)

Is this just a coincidence or a side-effect of sanctions and poor regulatory oversight?

Some people feel that sanctions are entirely to blame for Iran's poor air safety record. I personally do not believe that sanctions are the sole cause of this however - what sanctions did Iran's Tu154's face? Undoubtedly, sanctions are a significant factor, but we also need to take into consideration the importance of effective regulatory and managerial oversight. Given the controversy surrounding the current head of Iran's national aviation regulator, the Civil Aviation Organization (CAO) Mr Reza Nakhjavani, he does not exactly instill confidence in his abilities given the fact that the Iranian Ministry of Transport has sought his dismissal on grounds of incompetence for the past 2 years:

http://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/48049/Economy/ENGLISH
Reasons For Iran Air Safety Troubles (by haveasafeflight Feb 17 2012 in Non Aviation)

Shockingly, Reza Nakhjavani remains in his position even after the unprecedented number of incidents that have effected the Iranian airlines and claimed so many lives during his term as the head of the CAO. If Iran wants to improve it's air safety record, perhaps it could begin by firing Nakhjavani and appointing a suitably qualified replacement this time around. The Iranians have it in their power to do something about their own aviation regulator, there is very little they can do about sanctions however.

So there you have it, IATA announces that 2011 was the safest year in the history of aviation, with the lowest recorded rate of air accidents in aviation history, and ironically, Iran Air Boeing 727 Flight 277 was the worst accident of the year claiming the lives of 77 passengers and crew. What explanation has Reza Nakhjavani offered into the cause of the crash to the families of the victims and the people of Iran? You guessed it, none  :

http://www.pprune.org/questions/4732...n-air-boeing-727-flight-277-a.html

Fly Safe
Ali  


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22726 posts, RR: 20
Reply 10, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1891 times:

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 8):
But there is no denial that aviation has become much much safer in the last 20 years.

Agreed. Longer time frames make my concerns less significant. But I'm not sure we can draw many (if any) conclusions in the shorter term.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinehaveasafeflight From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1606 times:

Quoting haveasafeflight (Reply 9):
In the past 6 months alone four Iranian operated A300's were involved in incidents caused by burst tires, that's an average of one every 6 weeks...

Today a Mahan Air A300 suffered a cabin pressure failure, representing at least the 5th incident involving Airbus 300's in Iran in the past 6 months:

http://avherald.com/h?article=44c2a51d&opt=0

Perhaps Iranian airlines were one of the main reasons for the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region experiencing such a decline in air safety standards in 2011?


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
2009 - A Very Bad Year For Aviation? posted Tue Jun 30 2009 08:58:30 by TheSonntag
2005 A Great Year For Aviation posted Sat Dec 31 2005 14:09:55 by WINGS
2005 Best Ever Year For Boeing? posted Sat Nov 26 2005 23:19:55 by Rwy32R
2001: A Bad Year For Aviation posted Mon Dec 31 2001 20:57:08 by BA777
JFK Has Busiest Year For NYC Area Ever! posted Tue Mar 1 2005 22:57:08 by Jfklganyc
Safest Year In Aviation? posted Sun Jan 2 2005 16:31:47 by Aviation
2003 - Safest Year In Aviation History posted Tue Oct 21 2003 15:39:48 by Na
2002 Was Safest Year For Airlines posted Mon Jul 14 2003 09:50:24 by Kevi747
Year 2000-- Already Bad For Aviation? posted Sun Feb 20 2000 05:25:11 by Air_Chick_757
Banner Year For DSM Ahead? posted Sun Jan 22 2012 09:05:30 by CIDFlyer