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Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 4  
User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5359 posts, RR: 12
Posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 12711 times:

Well, Part #3 is now well over 200 posts so how about we start anew?

I’ll attempt another of my summaries:
>AA, DL, and UA have selected and announced; US has not.
>The new entrant/limited incumbent cx have now officially placed their bids as follows: ACYVR, AS-PDX & SAN, B6-SJU & AUS, F9-COS, SY-LAS, VX-SFO x2, and WN-AUS. (The cities are listed in distinct order of priority of that carrier.)
>The applications, plus a bunch of letters of support, are available in Docket 29 at:
http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketD...SR;rpp=25;po=0;D=DOT-OST-2012-0029
>The next deadline is March 27 which is for everything -- arguments, counter-arguments, letters of support, whatever, and then, at some point prior to May 14, the DOT will pick the 2-to-4 winning carriers and their respective routes.
>And oh yeah, at some point, we expect to probably hear a route selection from US Airways!

And here's the link to Part 3 of this ongoing topic:
Eight More DCA Beyond-Perimeter Slots - Pt 3 (by SANFan Mar 9 2012 in Civil Aviation)

That being that, let’s get back to the discussions…

bb

(mod’s, please feel free to lock thread 3)

98 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 12571 times:

For those that didnt see we do have some new DCA news or DCA effect. I dont care what press releases they send out i bet we see AA slim down a IAD-LAX frequency

DL SLC-DCA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
DL SLC-IAD JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

I still wouldn't be too shocked to see this come back in some way winter only unless delta thinks it can get them to connect no problems which you might be able to. I know its not the higher fare last minute DCA business and government purchasers but during ski season that flight has tons of skiiers and IAD is close to alot of families and skiiers and this flight has always done well in the winter. Between 2 flights a day to BWI and 2 to DCA now maybe IAD is just too much united country even for the winter.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11214 posts, RR: 52
Reply 2, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 12444 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
IAD is close to alot of families and skiiers and this flight has always done well in the winter.

You know what's close to a lot of 20-somethings and early 30-somethings that want to go skiing? DCA. If it is true that IAD sees more skiing traffic than DCA does, I would chalk it up more to the fact that there are more flights to DEN and SLC from IAD than DCA, and not that skiers inherently prefer IAD over DCA.



Send me a PM at http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/sendmessage.main?from_username=NULL
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2741 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 12369 times:

And now for the latest - "Today in the Sky" has a page where one can vote for the DCA route of their choice.

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/p...ld-you-pick-for-dc-reagan/647545/1

  


User currently offlineMikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1397 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 12332 times:

Thanks for summarizing and for the new thread, SANFan. For sake of clarity on the following...

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
>The next deadline is March 27 which is for everything -- arguments, counter-arguments, letters of support, whatever, and then, at some point prior to May 14, the DOT will pick the 2-to-4 winning carriers and their respective routes.
>And oh yeah, at some point, we expect to probably hear a route selection from US Airways!

...was anyone able to ascertain whether US is subject to any particular deadline to reallocate an existing slot to a beyond perimeter destination? In other words, do we know whether US needs to play a hand by (1) 3/27, (2) 5/14, or (3) ever?

If (1), then the US DCA-XXX offering of service is officially part of the DOT's determination.

If (2), then the US DCA-XXX service is somewhat at risk with a TBD set of 4 exemptions.

If (3), then US may make their choice based on the "new" DCA marketplace.

In my opinion, we'll either see something in the next two weeks or, if my summary of (2) is accurate, they'll just as soon wait for the 5/14 (or earlier) announcement of routes and cherry-pick accordingly.

-Mike



I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 928 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 12318 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
And now for the latest - "Today in the Sky" has a page where one can vote for the DCA route of their choice.

Those desktop PC's in Burlingame must be awfully busy this morning! Vote, clear cookies, vote, clear cookies.....


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5359 posts, RR: 12
Reply 6, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 12319 times:

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 4):
...was anyone able to ascertain whether US is subject to any particular deadline to reallocate an existing slot to a beyond perimeter destination? In other words, do we know whether US needs to play a hand by (1) 3/27, (2) 5/14, or (3) ever?

I asked those exact questions (same choices) on the previous thread and didn't get any responses or clarifications so I'm going with Door #3; I've read everything I can and there doesn't seem to be any deadline imposed on US at all... Most people seem to think US WILL select something, sometime.

I suppose the most logical assumption right now is that they will wait for the dust to settle after the DOT hands down their decisions, see what the field looks llike at that point, and pick either an already-served market, or a new one. They can always change it...

bb


User currently offlineMikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1397 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 12247 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 6):
I suppose the most logical assumption right now is that they will wait for the dust to settle after the DOT hands down their decisions, see what the field looks llike at that point, and pick either an already-served market, or a new one. They can always change it...

It's an interesting approach.

On the one hand, US could've jumped in with the other three (AA, DL, and UA) and staked a claim on, say, DCA-SAN, in which case the AS, F9, and WN applications would all be likely a bit different. On the other hand, US appears interested in letting those hands be played first, which to me seems as though they could make a run at any route and make it work, i.e. since the marketplace has become incrementally more competitive with the proposal of new services.

If they were concerned about DCA market share, they'd probably announce something along the lines of AUS. It keeps WN out of DCA all together (subject to the DOT's consideration, of course) and effectively puts B6's application more heavily focused on caribbean expansion.

Most airlines, including US, seem to be more focused with profitability (as they should), which means the total picture is in play. For that reason, I'm not sure if we'll see a transcon as yields may be a bit depressed versus something shorter haul. IMHO, this leaves LAX and SFO as viable options as the markets are generally known and quite large, but SAT may be as viable as a shorter monopoly route.

Again, there is nothing stopping them - but for the logistical homework of scheduling and aircraft dispatch planning - from announcing any of these today: AUS, SAT, LAX or SFO. By indirect reasoning, then, I assume that their eyes are set on the other routes - SAN, PDX, or even LAS - but too much remains uncertain, i.e. presents risk, to the business case for any of them to be announced now.

So, if my analysis holds - and such armchair speculation can be quite fun! - they'll wait for the DOT's decisions on the filed applications and make an announcement for:
  • SAN, if AS gets only their desired PDX slot, i.e. not this route with the assumption that a WN/B6 1-stop routing is deemed sufficient by the DOT in this consideration

  • SAT, if AS gets both PDX and SAN n/s, WN/B6 gets AUS-SAN, and VX gets SFO

  • SFO, if AS gets both PDX and SAN n/s, WN/B6 gets AUS-SAN, and VX doesn't get SFO

  • PDX, if AS doesn't get this slot


I don't expect an AUS filing due to the likelihood of either WN or B6 getting this and either (a) the potential ground handling costs associated with the DCA flight being the only US mainline op there or (b) the lower revenue potential to fly a CR9 or E75 on the route. Subsequently, I don't expect YVR, SJU, LAS, or COS, primarily due to the relatively lower revenue or yield potential, depending on each market.

-Mike



I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 12097 times:

I wonder how many thousand times sanfan is gonna vote himself for SAN in the usatoday poll? Jk lol   but if your commenting less on this forum we know what your doing

User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3056 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 12030 times:

If grammar and spelling are in play Mr. Lougheed application for AS on DOT-OST-2012-0029-0115-2 failed to proof read his document. Two spelling and one pronunciation error is a short paragraph. Ouch!

"Plese consider allowing my airline to extend our great repuataion and service to DCA out of Portand Oregon and San Diego California! Thanks for you sonsideration!"

Sincerely, Jeff Lougheed



Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3126 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 11834 times:

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 7):
PDX, if AS doesn't get this slot

I don't see any way that US would ever fly DCA-PDX non-stop, they barely fly here anyway, a few flights to PHX, a flight or two to PHL, and a seasonal to CLT, PDX is the weakest of the markets you mentioned.



AA-AC-AQ-AS-BN-BD-CO-CS-DL-EA-EZ-HA-HP-KL-KN-MP-MW-NK-NW-OO-OZ-PA-PS-QX-RC-RH-RW-SA-TG-TW-UA-US-VS-WA-WC-WN
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Reply 11, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 11805 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
For those that didnt see we do have some new DCA news or DCA effect. I dont care what press releases they send out i bet we see AA slim down a IAD-LAX frequency

No, we won't. Why? Very simple: the DCA flight is timed for the most important connecting bank and O&D bank for AA at LAX. AA is not going to eliminate the LAXIAD frequency during that bank, plain and simple. And if AA were to eliminate any other frequency, then it would have a weak Washington-LA schedule.

Just like AA offers eight daily LAXMIA and one daily LAXFLL; just like AA offers ten daily LAXJFK and one daily EWRJFK; it will now offer three daily LAXIAD and one daily LAXDCA.

And why are you comparing the Salt Lake City and Los Angeles markets? There is nothing to compare.



a.
User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4037 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 11773 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 10):
I don't see any way that US would ever fly DCA-PDX non-stop, they barely fly here anyway, a few flights to PHX, a flight or two to PHL, and a seasonal to CLT, PDX is the weakest of the markets you mentioned.

Before US pulled down the BOS focus city there were actually some fairly serious rumblings about starting BOS-PDX (this was of course in cheaper fuel days). It's not about PDX being a weak market for US. Load factors are fairly high - it's the stage lengths from the US hubs on the East Coast, in conjunction with fuel price that kill the yields and that's the reason that PHL and CLT service comes and goes in fits and starts.


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5359 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 11703 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 8):
I wonder how many thousand times sanfan is gonna vote himself for SAN in the usatoday poll? Jk lol but if your commenting less on this forum we know what your doing.


LOL! Hey, so I took a few hours off today to go see my beautiful granddaughter! And that's much more important than fighting with people here on a.net!   And hey, btw, when I left this morning, there were 6 posts on this thread. Nine hours later, only 6 new ones?!? What've you people been doing all day!? I know, I know, voting and sending letters! LOL again.

You know, if I thought for a minute that it actually mattered, I probably would vote and send in packaged letters provided by the cx 24/7. (But I'm not saying there might not be an original document or two sent by me to the DOT, ummmmm, probably in support of AS's SAN application...)

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 7):
So, if my analysis holds - and such armchair speculation can be quite fun! - they'll wait for the DOT's decisions on the filed applications and make an announcement...


Like minds, Mikey'... Yes, my armchair is well-conformed to my body by now, and I do enjoy being there!

One unique thing that has to be remembered about US Airways and this discussion is that they are the King at DCA, with lots of connections available to MANY places -- like any other east coast hub (except for int'l destinations of course.) So theoretically they could pick TUS-DCA, or BOI-DCA, or any other small-market city and probably make it work pretty well. The DOT didn't particularly want this approach to these proceedings but they have no control over what US decides, or for what reasons. I know there are considerations like US's presence in the western city, equipment issues (as mentioned by Mike'), etc., but I'm just saying... (And I don't seriously think they would do this, but it would be easier for US to do than, say, AA or WN, or pretty much anyone else.)

And again, they can always change the destination! Over and over again if necessary! So whatever they do decide is fully erasable...

bb


User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 11589 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
No, we won't. Why? Very simple: the DCA flight is timed for the most important connecting bank and O&D bank for AA at LAX. AA is not going to eliminate the LAXIAD frequency during that bank, plain and simple. And if AA were to eliminate any other frequency, then it would have a weak Washington-LA schedule.

Just like AA offers eight daily LAXMIA and one daily LAXFLL; just like AA offers ten daily LAXJFK and one daily EWRJFK; it will now offer three daily LAXIAD and one daily LAXDCA.

And why are you comparing the Salt Lake City and Los Angeles markets? There is nothing to compare.

Im not comparing the markets in anyway its the DCA effect of a new flight thats similar. You comparing JFK-LAX connecting two AA hubs or LAX-MIA two AA hubs is the flaw here.

Clearly you have some very strong opinions on this but that doesnt mean you know it wont happen. I forgot that you run AA so you can say they wont eliminate a frequency. I think its long term as in after this flight has started that AA finds it hard to fill both a 757 out of DCA and a 738 out of DCA at the same time. There is an IAD and DCA flight that leave at basically the exact same times. Cancelling the IAD flight at those times doesnt really weaken AAs time options nor is three frequencies that weak. AA already operates the smallest plane it has capable of flying this route on all IAD-LAX frequencies. They will be adding a 757 worth of seats they need to additionally fill at that time. AA can plan or say anything they want i just think the IAD flight over time at the same time will be the one to suffer from some severe fare decreases when they have a 757 worth of seats for sale out of DCA now at that same time.


User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2856 posts, RR: 30
Reply 15, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 11573 times:

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
AA, DL, and UA have selected and announced

Yes, and their flights are already for sale. IMO, these airlines did exactly as could be expected. AA added nonstop service to its only cornerstone hub beyond the perimeter (LAX), DL bolstered frequency to its sole [domestic] hub beyond the perimeter (2nd daily to SLC), and UA added nonstop service to its largest/most important unserved hub beyond the perimeter (SFO). I would have been shocked to see any of them do anything else, and I'm sure all of these flights will do very well.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
US has not

Not surprising. I'm sure they'll be patiently waiting to see who gets what for the 4 new entrant/limited incumbent slots (if they must do something before the final decision is made, at least they'll get to see how much public support there is for routes to places like PDX, SAN, and SFO), and perhaps even trying to see how their legacy peers are doing in terms of advanced bookings. I'd say one thing is for certain - this slot won't be used for an additional (4th daily) PHX flight. Existing service to their sole beyond-perimeter hub can be upgauged if additional capacity is needed.

Since there will only be two daily flights to LAX (the existing AS 738 and a new AA 757), I'd say LAX is probably near or at the top of the list. Assuming a US DCA-LAX would have a UA codeshare, it would essentially be a hub-hub flight. The only other plausible markets from DCA for US, IMO, would be SFO or SAN. They are quite strong in both markets on their own merit, and can additionally tap into Star/UA FF loyalty with the codeshare. I highly doubt they'll use this slot for smaller markets like PDX or SAT where US is a relatively weak carrier...

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
ACYVR

There certainly won't be much congressional support for this. I'd be shocked to see it come to fruition, especially when you consider the fact that there isn't any kind of established nonstop link between YVR and any D.C. area airport. Seeing as it didn't take UA long to bail on its recent attempt of IAD-YVR, I can only imagine the O&D between Vancouver and D.C. is quite low.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
AS-PDX & SAN

I bet AS will get a slot for PDX. I'm sure the good folks representing Oregon will do what it takes to make it happen. As for SAN, that's much more of a long shot - an LCC one-stop option (and perhaps a US nonstop) will probably take care of that market.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
B6-SJU & AUS

I'm not surprised to see B6 wanting to do DCA-SJU, but I do wonder how much support they'll get from Congress given Puerto Rico's obscure political status. Plus, the corporate lobbyists will probably tout all of the economic benefits of additional links to key business markets (PDX, AUS, SAN, SFO, etc.) rather than an overwhelmingly leisure market. But, we did see HA get a scarce HND slot for a route that really just serves foreign tourists. I have a feeling they might just get SJU..

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
F9-COS

I doubt F9 will get this. I imagine all of the other proposed markets have much higher O&D than COS. The government will probably question the airline's commitment to COS, which could just be a brief expansion experiment along the lines of OKC, MCI, OMA, STL, LAX, etc. Plus, F9 already has more beyond-perimeter exemptions than all other limited incumbent/new entrant carriers except AS, but that airline uses the slots to serve multiple markets.

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
SY-LAS

I've heard the existing daily DCA-LAS flight (US) isn't all that great, despite US's tremendous feed and local FF loyalty. Is an additional link to Vegas necessary, on an airline of dubious financial strength that is virtually unknown on both the DCA and LAS ends? I would be absolutely shocked to see the government pick this proposal over other key unserved markets...

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
VX-SFO x2

LOL, they won't get 2 daily flights, but I bet they'll get one. A well timed VX flight will help lower fares not just to SFO itself but also key markets like PDX and SAN  .

Quoting SANFan (Thread starter):
WN-AUS

Interesting that they chose this, over much larger "hubs" at DEN, PHX, and LAS, or big focus cities/secondary hubs at the likes of ABQ and SAN. I imagine this Texas-based airline has close ties with the Texan politicians that will be eager to gain a nonstop link to their capital. I bet this one will happen. We all know the government loves WN  .

So, in summation, I think we'll see the government pick AS-PDX, B6-SJU, VX-SFO, and WN-AUS. This appeases the congressional constituents from Texas, Oregon, and California. WN and VX can presumably take care of SAN, and it's quite possible US would start the route if AS didn't get it. Though, I have a funny feeling we'll see US jump on the DCA-LAX route.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Reply 16, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 11555 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 14):
Clearly you have some very strong opinions on this but that doesnt mean you know it wont happen. I forgot that you run AA so you can say they wont eliminate a frequency. I think its long term as in after this flight has started that AA finds it hard to fill both a 757 out of DCA and a 738 out of DCA at the same time. There is an IAD and DCA flight that leave at basically the exact same times. Cancelling the IAD flight at those times doesnt really weaken AAs time options nor is three frequencies that weak. AA already operates the smallest plane it has capable of flying this route on all IAD-LAX frequencies. They will be adding a 757 worth of seats they need to additionally fill at that time. AA can plan or say anything they want i just think the IAD flight over time at the same time will be the one to suffer from some severe fare decreases when they have a 757 worth of seats for sale out of DCA now at that same time.

You really think AA is going to have a hard time filling four flights to D.C. from its fourth largest hub?

And canceling the prime IAD flight absolutely hurts AA. Why do people forget that Dulles is a market itself? It's in Northern Virgina, and from LA in particular, there is a lot of defense and aeronautic industry traffic that is going not to downtown D.C., but Northern Birginia. What's AA going to tell those premium passengers? Fly United? Don't think so.

Not to mention IADLAX has a reputation among AA elites as the single hardest domestic upgrade. You act like AA somehow suffers on IADLAX. It doesn't. It has a solid 25% of the local market; it also is the second largest carrier on LAXDCA, with close to 30% of the market (AS has 36%). The services perfectly compliment and it will likely remain that way.

I'd agree that a temporary reduction in LAXIAD might make sense if AA decides to cut domestic capacity deeper as part of restructuring, because there will undoubtedabuse a lag between 2012 retirements and 2013 deliveries, but I see that as no different than AA taking a reduction in LAXMIA or SFOJFK.

The strategy to maintain four daily flights in this market is extremely solid and absolutely will work long-term. As AA develops LAX as a larger hub, it should aim to add a fourth LAXIAD.

[Edited 2012-03-16 02:17:20]


a.
User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 11501 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
AA is not going to eliminate the LAXIAD frequency during that bank, plain and simple[/quote

and a few hours later

[quote=MAH4546,reply=16]I'd agree that a temporary reduction in LAXIAD might make sense if AA decides to cut domestic capacity deeper as part of restructuring

I think you realize what im saying plain and simple. Im not trying to give you a hard time   i think AA is very strong at LAX and we certain could see them grow more there it just might be a little too redundant and bad use of a plane.


We all think that US is waiting on the other slot allocations but i also wonder if they are using the time to see how much potential an AA merger could have? The article on the other forum AA is saying they would be open to a merger has to have them thinking about options. I still think DCA-LAX is pretty safe for US they have a large DCA base-its large o&d and either UA or AA have large LAX bases of flyers.


User currently offlineredzeppelin From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 554 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 11368 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 1):
DL SLC-DCA JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
DL SLC-IAD JUN 1.0>0.2 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0

Looking at the new SLC schedule, I have to wonder how many pax using the current SLC-DCA service originate in PDX, SFO or SAN. Anybody have access to numbers? My instinct is that more PDX traffic might go through MSP, and SFO traffic might be more inclined to go over DEN or ORD. I have no idea about SAN. But assuming that those three airports all get their own DCA service it will certainly affect the connecting passenger load in SLC at least a little bit.



Happiness is rediscovering a forgotten L-1011 in your flight log.
User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5359 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 11258 times:

I'm kind of curious what sort of counter-arguments and rebuttals we'll see -- if any -- from the the cx involved in the hearings?

It's interesting that there aren't the usual numbers of overlaps and duplications of route bids here. So there isn't that much opportunity (or need?) for one carrier to tear apart another's application. EXCEPT that there are only 4 slots available so a carrier might want to try to get the DOT to not consider other applications for other routes in order to INCREASE the chances of their bid winning approval.

IMO, the only duplication here is AUS, despite some folks' opinions here that WN's and F9's applications, that include direct service to SAN, are in competition with Alaska's proposal for nonstop SAN-DCA. (Which they aren't -- apples and oranges.) But that doesn't mean that WN and F9 might not jump up and down a bit claiming that their bids ARE better overall because after all, they're serving TWO cities with 1 slot, etc., etc., And how hard, if at all, will AS counter-argue in favor of their nonstop bid? Hard to say but will intersting to see what happens.

I would be surprised if we didn't see at least some sparring between WN and B6 over their respective bids for AUS. It doesn't seem to me to be much of a contest really but I'll be curious to see if Blue sees fit to even take a stand on the issue. After all, they said they didn't even want Austin unless they got SJU first/also! You suppose WN might mention that in their argument???   (I'm afraid B6 might've painted themselves into a corner here...)

Beyond that, will VX, for example, come out swinging and try to convince the DOT that all these other bids are stupid and a waste of time and resources (well except for maybe 2 other routes) while their 2x SFO flights are the only sane choice? Will other cx file arguments asking why AC, SY and F9 even bothered? Or point out to the DOT that SFO already has service from UA so why should VX and more slots for the City by the Bay even be considered?

In the meantime, while waiting to see which airline might fire the next salvo, I see the "Dear Secretary LaHood..." count is at about 200 postings now and still climbing! It's possible that any airline arguments might just show up at the deadline (March 27) and not before but that would sure take some of the fun out of it! (That also asks the question, will we ever even FIND any airlines arguments in that bulging docket folder???) Very interesting stuff.

bb


User currently offlineredzeppelin From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 554 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 11166 times:

I've browsed through the airlines' proposals in the docket folder, and I find it fascinating to see the mix of support letters included in the appendix of some proposals. For example, in the B6 proposal, they have 6-7 letters from Caribbean dignitaries supporting SJU service -- ranging from congressional delegates to local politicians to the SJU airport director -- but in support of AUS they include only a solitary letter from the Austin mayor. AS also has an interesting mix of support letters, including the Alaska congressional delegation that doesn't really seem to have a direct interest in the new service. I thought it was a nice touch for AS to include letters from their respective pilot and MX unions -- the current administration should appreciate that.

SY's proposal is the shortest of the bunch by far, and doesn't include any support letters. WN, F9 and VX did not include any support letters in their proposals either. I have no idea if the letters will be influential at all, but I personally thought B6 and AS both did a good job of finding important people to speak on behalf of their preferred routes. I already expressed my doubts about the F9-COS route, but after reading their proposal I can see that they put a lot of work into it and I'm not as skeptical as I was previously. It is interesting how they turn the arguement around and focus on the fact that WAS is the biggest destination market from COS, and avoid the fact that COS is relatively low on the list of unserved markets from DCA. It was interesting to see SAT come up several times in the charts in the various proposals. They all recognize that SAT is a major market. But the WN proposal has a chart that seems to explain why nobody proposed serving the route. Based on their figures, current yields on AUS-DCA service are 12% higher than expected yields for the DCA market, while yields to SAT are currently 6% too low. Like everything else, it's about the money. After seeing the proposals, I would probably pick B6-SJU, AS-PDX, AS-SAN and WN-AUS.



Happiness is rediscovering a forgotten L-1011 in your flight log.
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24878 posts, RR: 46
Reply 21, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 11093 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):
Not to mention IADLAX has a reputation among AA elites as the single hardest domestic upgrade.

It does ? Looking back at my statements, I can see I've flown 11 segments between the cities in the last year, and in F on all.

I have a harder time on LAX-MIA then ever with IAD.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinethreeifbyair From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 672 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 11012 times:

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 18):
Looking at the new SLC schedule, I have to wonder how many pax using the current SLC-DCA service originate in PDX, SFO or SAN. Anybody have access to numbers? My instinct is that more PDX traffic might go through MSP, and SFO traffic might be more inclined to go over DEN or ORD. I have no idea about SAN. But assuming that those three airports all get their own DCA service it will certainly affect the connecting passenger load in SLC at least a little bit

I think your assessment is sound, but I suspect that DL gets a lot of that SLC flight filled with O&D and connections to those markets that do not have MSP service or very limited MSP service. Places like RNO, GEG, and BOI come to mind, as well as a lot of the SkyWest destinations.


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5359 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10970 times:

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 18):
Looking at the new SLC schedule, I have to wonder how many pax using the current SLC-DCA service originate in PDX, SFO or SAN....But assuming that those three airports all get their own DCA service it will certainly affect the connecting passenger load in SLC at least a little bit.
Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 22):
I think your assessment is sound, but I suspect that DL gets a lot of that SLC flight filled with O&D and connections to those markets that do not have MSP service or very limited MSP service. Places like RNO, GEG, and BOI come to mind, as well as a lot of the SkyWest destinations.

This is a good point 'zeppelin. I can see the numbers on all hubs' flights dropping -- DEN, SLC, PHX, etc. (And of course the other hubs will lose pax as well.) After all, a major purpose of these hearings is to get nonstop service to the largest markets from DC.

So will DL continue to need 2 SLC-DCA flights? That's the question. From my research, the O&D between SLC and WAS is not real huge -- it's about 430 pdew. Just remember, if they decide they don't need two flights in that market, all they have to do is change the destination of one of the flights from SLC to XXX! (LAX, SFO, SEA, SAN, or wherever.) Very easy fix for the problem.



bb


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3126 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (2 years 4 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10861 times:

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 12):
Before US pulled down the BOS focus city there were actually some fairly serious rumblings about starting BOS-PDX (this was of course in cheaper fuel days). It's not about PDX being a weak market for US. Load factors are fairly high - it's the stage lengths from the US hubs on the East Coast, in conjunction with fuel price that kill the yields and that's the reason that PHL and CLT service comes and goes in fits and starts.

I can understand in todays climate the reluctance of US to invest much at PDX, considering the UA codeshare. US has had a good chance at PDX before but haven't stayed long at much of anything from the purchase of PSA giving PDX it's first US flights. I just don't see the DOT not giving AS the PDX route, in fact from this point on, when listing our thoughts on these four route awards, let's assume DCA-PDX on AS is a given please. (EG)

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 22):
Places like RNO, GEG, and BOI come to mind, as well as a lot of the SkyWest destinations



All cities AS can bring to the table via PDX or SEA, albeit a bit of a back track in some cases.



AA-AC-AQ-AS-BN-BD-CO-CS-DL-EA-EZ-HA-HP-KL-KN-MP-MW-NK-NW-OO-OZ-PA-PS-QX-RC-RH-RW-SA-TG-TW-UA-US-VS-WA-WC-WN
25 SANFan : Please explain the "EG". Sorry but I don't get that. bb
26 FlyPNS1 : While I agree that DCA-PDX on AS has a high probability of occurring, I don't think it is a given. AS has one major strike against it in this competi
27 HPRamper : Well, you also have to take into consideration the perceived value of the proposal. Carrier X which already has multiple exemptions and then proposes
28 Redzeppelin : I have no doubt that DL will fill the second slc-dca flight, but the new potential service to the large west coast markets may be part of the logic i
29 SANFan : I certainly understand what you're saying but I can't help but believe (hope) that the DOT will find the destinations (markets) involved to be more i
30 slcdeltarumd11 : For an airline like US this is exactly why they wont want another PHX flight there will be some reduced demand of course to hubs with more non stop ma
31 RWA380 : Sorry about that, it stands for Evil Grin.... Even furthers my chain of thinking, that AS has developed a long term successful beyond perimeter opera
32 slcdeltarumd11 : I mean they clearly would prefer to get PDX in their own statements if they can get just one so they dont want to paint too good a picture for SAN i
33 RWA380 : I still think, AS gets both filed for, B6 gets SJU, WN gets AUS. AS is a proven leader in operating beyond perimeter rotes successfully. I guarantee a
34 slcdeltarumd11 : Oh i think this is gonna be the exemption period for quite along time. Once these are fulfilled there will be much less lobbying and people pushing t
35 HPRamper : I think VX would be a lot more successful on its proposed route...SY presence at LAS and DCA is miniscule and would not benefit from feed at either e
36 FlyPNS1 : However, the DOT has always given favor to new entrants and those with the least slot holdings. AS might get one slot pair, but I doubt they will get
37 slcdeltarumd11 : Very good point. I still think its an outside chance for all but i think the US carriers with no exemptions still have good shots. It really could be
38 flyiguy : Fair isn't whats at stake though. I can see AS getting PDX and SAN service since they are the largest unserved markets. B6 Getting SJU would be huge.
39 usflyguy : PDX, AUS, SAN, and SJU
40 GentFromAlaska : As prognostication goes, the beyond perimeter slot awards will be: AS PDX-DCA F9 COS-DCA VX SFO-DCA B6 AUS-DCA
41 Post contains links SANFan : SAN-DCA announced today along with 5 other new DCA-routes. To start June 8 with the following (horrible e/b) schedule: SAN-11:00PM DCA-7:00AM #1066 A3
42 gigneil : What's wrong with that schedule? I'd think it leverages the power of the US resources at DCA. NS
43 SANFan : It might make for some nice connections over Reagan but this service is mainly about local SAN-DCA-SAN traffic and we can get into the usual redeye-v
44 SANFan : A few random thoughts on what was announced today and how that affects what the DOT might do. Several of us have been speculating about what US would
45 slcdeltarumd11 : SFO is the much more likely than SAN to see a second exemption but If were gonna go by o&d i think LAS has a much higher chance of getting a secon
46 mariner : I don't see how it affects Southwest/AUS (or Frontier/COS) negatively. If anything I think it slightly improves the chances for both. The DOT loves l
47 SANFan : Agreed. To me, it's almost like US wanted to make sure AS (or at least somebody) applied for SAN before they made their announcement. (Or perhaps the
48 slcdeltarumd11 : I see your point if we assume because of this non-stop AS is out for a SAN slot there is one more open for the taking but i think it makes the COS an
49 mariner : That's not really my reasoning. As I said earlier today in another thread, the primary concern of the DOT is the actual beyond perimeter city. The "b
50 Post contains images RWA380 : I think the decision by US is going to make another SAN route not quite as necessary, if US had gone anywhere else, and I'm one who thought it would b
51 Post contains images point2point : AS-PDX-DCA WN-DCA-AUS F9-DCA-COS VX-SFO-DCA edit added - or maybe B6-DCA-SJU instead of VX-DCA-SFO, can't make up my mind.......[Edited 2012-03-22 05:
52 RWA380 : I think we are all getting pretty close. The only reason I chose B6 over F9 is F9's stability, and if the DOT would want to re-visit this slot exempt
53 Post contains images point2point : I would just guess here but - probably the route would be reallocated. That is if we're assuming that F9 will be taken over in a merger, rather than
54 md3 : I think that's a fair assessment. When TWA was picked apart, AA wasn't allowed to keep their LAX slot, though when DL merged and became the surviving
55 RWA380 : Funny, when I asked that question, I wasn't even thinking F9 would have a chance of being the surviving carrier, what you say makes perfect sense to
56 GentFromAlaska : For the sake of conversation does anyone think the DOT recent decision to award to FL/WN the MDW-CUN authority in lieu of F9 ORD-CUN service might swa
57 SANFan : I think the political factor here had a lot to do with AUS being requested over SAT. Sure, the home of the Alamo has a larger pax traffic volume to D
58 GentFromAlaska : As a retired (per-se) travel agent what are your thoughts about reserving airfare on WN? If I'm using the correct analogy, I understood travel agents
59 LoneStarMike : Another reason AUS was picked over SAT was that DCA – AUS is the Most Overpriced of the Top 10 Beyond Perimeter DCA Markets Without Nonstop Service
60 SANFan : As the final deadline approaches for any "comments with respect to any such applications" in the DCA proceedings, I'm wondering what we might see from
61 HPRamper : Probably pretty likely that AS will stay mum. B6 will probably do the same with AUS vs. their first choice of SJU. I think more than anything the DOT
62 GentFromAlaska : Viewing the AS PDX-DCA application it appears the carrier has put out a feeler asking their employees, mileage plan affiliates and fan base to post c
63 Post contains images SANFan : I honestly hadn't even thought of that possibility. However, I don't think of AS as a carrier that generally shys away from competition, or from a fi
64 HPRamper : While AS doesn't shy away from a fight, I also don't think they want to pick a fight. And now as US is making quite public overtures of an AA buyout
65 GentFromAlaska : I'm going back a few years, I recall US CSA handling AS SEA-BOS flight(s) at Logan. At the time I thought is made sense in that US is strong in the E
66 HPRamper : The only thing that wouldn't fit there is that the only US hub in the West, PHX has very little AS presence, so it would be difficult to link the net
67 slcdeltarumd11 : I think SAN was AS just in case we can't get PDX because we have too many exemptions already second choice. SAN has the o &d there was a chance th
68 gigneil : Which, to be fair, would be super trivial to do. NS
69 HPRamper : Yep. AS doesn't need to codeshare with anyone else. It would help US a lot more. A pretty one-sided deal.
70 SANFan : There is a lot of talk about AA + US but we are a long way from anything happening. I can't see that AS or US are real concerned about those scenario
71 gigneil : It DOES warrant 3 flights. However, it doesn't warrant them at the expense of the other entrants. NS
72 SANFan : Point taken. And LAX could easily support 4 daily roundtrips (based on O&D traffic.) But sure, the DOT has to balance need vs "spreading the weal
73 RWA380 : I was a travel agent in a small downtown San Francisco agency until 3 years ago, until my health took me away from it. I was able to book and ticket
74 Post contains links and images mariner : The airlines involved have been filing their answers, and/or supplementary submissions. I've posted the Frontier answer in the appropriate thread, but
75 SANFan : And I notice with interest -- and optimism -- that both Alaska Airlines and the SDCRAA (on behalf of the San Diego community) continue to support AS's
76 Post contains links md3 : Air Canada's Final Response jetBlue's final response Southwest's final response Virgin America's final response This is like an aviation-legal drama u
77 redzeppelin : After reading AC's response, I'm suddenly feeling good about their chances with YVR. I hadn't really considered the Star Alliance connection with US a
78 GRUIAD : I don't know how much of a chance the AC application has - especially given that BOTH AC and UA have tried YVR-IAD like 3 or 4 times in the past 15 y
79 gigneil : To be fair, I agree. AC's response hit it out of the park. They seem to disagree with you. NS
80 MAH4546 : Second largest. The largest is Vancouver-Miami based on local O&D Jan11-Dec11. Regardless, it is a large market, but I'm sorry, I really don't se
81 Post contains images flyiguy : Do you really want to start that, if you want we could technically say VX is pretty much a foreign carrier
82 HiFlyerAS : With all the battles they've been through in this regard, I wouldn't be surprised if VX was shut out. And their amended application is SO snarky! But
83 GentFromAlaska : I find AC application a long shot. I concur with the one-stop to Asia and Australia. The service they tout to Western Canada from YVR is a stretch th
84 kgaiflyer : Whose codeshare twin is UA ? Really ?
85 SouthernDC9 : I love that Sun Country's proposal says that "Allowing Sun Country to increase its presence at DCA and in the Washington area would double Sun Country
86 gigneil : Except that there is absolutely, positively, no construction of reality where that's true. NS
87 HiFlyerAS : We don't really know WHO the 'owners' of VX are, do we? SRB and Virgin have a 'minority' interest....but a closely held hedge fund, Cyrus Capital, is
88 flyiguy : So when is the final desicion on the applicants going to be awarded ???
89 ouboy79 : Sometime in May is the expected decision.
90 Post contains images SANFan : The deadline for a decision by the DOT is on or about May 14. Since this hearing involves only 4 new routes, among 7 cx, and despite the tons of lett
91 Post contains images slcdeltarumd11 : I think alot of us were happy that you that got your SAN flight. LOL but you already got your SAN non-stop! You really think they are gonna give AS t
92 jporterfi : Why would F9 go with a flight from COS instead of a flight from DEN? Last I checked, F9 didn't have a hub at COS, and COS seems like a very small mark
93 slcdeltarumd11 : Frontier already has exemptions to fly to DEN the chances they would be given more to that same city are probably zero and DEN even from DCA is prett
94 GentFromAlaska : I suspect the military/government presence closer to COS vice DEN was a riding factor. Add to that the add-on SAN service with a lot of Navy, Marine
95 Post contains links SANFan : I'm certainly not unhappy about US's announcement but I do have some reservations (pardon the pun) about them on the route. And AS has continued to p
96 wedgetail737 : Not fair? If you think the airline industry should be fair, then you barking up the wrong tree. There is nothing fair about the airline industry. The
97 Post contains images RWA380 : I was waiting to hear from you B, in regards to the comments. I agree 100% about being optimistic, if SAN did get the AS flight, it sure could give A
98 HiFlyerAS : If AS is awarded SAN-DCA in addition to PDX-DCA I believe you'll see SAN immediately become AS's number one 'focus city' (if it isn't already). DCA co
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