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Boeing Studying A Replacement For The 757  
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 36849 times:

Scanning the usual sites today I came across something interesting, over at Leeham:
"Boeing is already studying a replacement for the 757 with a loosely targeted EIS date of 2025-2026. This is called the New Airplane Study."

Is this the 737 replacement or is it its own kind? Maybe to the new 737 as 757 was to 767? Sharing many systems and parts but different aircraft family.

152 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinegarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2654 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36896 times:

A single aircraft family catering from the 737-700 to the 757-200 range would make a lot of sense.

This is Boeings chance to start introducing a common cockpit on their products.
I'd say using the 787 cockpit for this proposed family would make sense, IMO.



arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineSASMD82 From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 771 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36796 times:
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Here we go again: 757NEO, 757NG, 757-8X, 757-900ER blablabla....

However - although there is no source available - when the news comes straight from Boeing, we can take this announcement somewhat more serious than the A-netters discussions.

Isn't this the proposed Y1 project? Isn't the market not somewhat niche? I mean, when counting the existing fleets of UA, DL, AA and US, we already have more than 600 planes flying around.....In Europe, South-America, the Middle-East, Africa and Oceania and even Asia, the bird is rare, very rare.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_757_operators (when checking this list, most of the operators outside North America have already withdrawn the 757.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36760 times:

Is there a market for a 757 aircraft? 737-900 and A321 lack the range but they are up there in passengers. The US market was the big market, EU was not at all, how about intra asia?

It would be hard to do the 757 first and then scale that down to 737-700 size?


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36703 times:

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 2):
Here we go again: 757NEO, 757NG, 757-8X, 757-900ER blablabla....

You say they just made that up? Leeham is a serious reporting place IMO.


User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5190 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36648 times:

I don't think it should be a common family with the 737s...a plane like that inherently would be too heavy for the most common 737 routes and probably short on range for the typical 757 routes.


Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36540 times:

When the 767 is EOL and the 787-3 never made it its a huge step from 737-9 to 787-8, I can see a niche in that space, but what size and shape is a harder nut to crack.

A 787-8 is too much aircraft on some routes but 240 passengers is a good number to fly. Looking at airbus they too have this gap in their lineup. When the 757 was in the market it was a different world, maybe more routes than transcontinental US have opened up? 240 passengers, 5-7000km?

In the future the niche that is made up of 767 and a330 gets vacated?! It is a big gap between a321,737-9 and a350-800 or 787-8..


User currently offlineTOMMY767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36456 times:

What Boeing has proved is that a 739ER is not a true replacement for a 757. Compared to the 757, it holds less people, doesn't have the range and chews up a lot more runway on take off and landing. Quite frankly, I think if Boeing wasn't tied up with the 787 right now they would have already designed a corresponding replacement to the 757. I think they are just holding out becuase many US airlines especially DL and UA still have massive fleets of 757s.


"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5463 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 36444 times:

The problem, as it always has been, is that it's hard to make a tube-and-wings aircraft in that size range that works well.

Widebodies with a narrower fuselage than the A330/A340 are a non-starter, because 1) the whole world has settled on LD3 as the standard container, and 2) 7 seats abreast results in a terrible seats-to-floor-area ratio. This is the biggest reason the A330 solidly defeated the 767 in the marketplace.

Narrowbodies get increasingly problematic as they reach lengths longer than the A321 or 752. They require heavier structure and become hard to turn quickly because of their sheer length. Nevertheless they are probably more attractive than widebodies because they can be more fuel-efficient, but engineering a narrowbody to scale to that size makes it impossible to sell the same narrowbody into the heart of the market. (The 757-100 concept failed even before there was an A320 or a 737NG.)


User currently offlineLPSHobby From Brazil, joined May 2007, 191 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 36360 times:
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Hey guys,



Do you think a new aircraft in the 757 size with a long haul could have a good market, for example, for Brazil and South America?

best wishes, Leonardo


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30978 posts, RR: 86
Reply 10, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 36215 times:
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Boeing has shown and patented dual-aisle designs with seating at 2+2+2 or 2+3+2.

Familiarity with CFRP should result in lighter and stronger structures, so that will help address the weight. A more ovoid fuselage would allow LD3s to be fitted side by side while keeping the main deck narrower than what it is today.


User currently offlineTOMMY767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 36174 times:

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 7):

And I forgot, the 739ER is also rather weak with cargo capacity compared to the 757. This is probably the biggest drawback.

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 9):
Do you think a new aircraft in the 757 size with a long haul could have a good market, for example, for Brazil and South America?

Yup. You have to take into consideration that the 757 is what an airline makes of it. American uses the type sucessfully on MIA to South America trips. United uses it out of EWR and IAD for European runs. DL also does the same but is heavily invested in doing shorter domestic turns with the 757 (United to a certain extent as well.) However for most of these domestic operations a 739ER is a sufficient replacement (there are exceptions such as BOS-SFO.) The long hauls such as East Coast to Europe or Miami to South America -- the 739ER is a complete joke. I'm sure Boeing knows this and will have to crack a more viable repacement for the 757 within this current decade.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 36107 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Boeing has shown and patented dual-aisle designs with seating at 2+2+2 or 2+3+2.

How wide would a 2-2-2 aircraft have to be? That would take care of the turnaround times with a long body NB.

To haul 220-230 passengers 6000km a 787-8 is a lot of structure. This might become a whole new family at both A and B, a class between NB and WB. It wont be a 757 as we know it, but the idea has some merit IMO. Maybe it is less suitable in Europe, until Africa really opens up.


User currently offlineHmelawyer From United States of America, joined May 2011, 65 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 36035 times:

Much of the talk around the 757 replacement has referred to the small niche that it fit into, which was generally 180-220 passenger loads on routes of 3000-4000 nm roughly. This was a US transcon and short transatlantic plane. The passenger load overlapped with the 767 and A330, though the lighter plane made thin routes more economical.

Looking ahead to the middle of next decade the 767 and A330 will be very long in tooth and their replacements (787, 350) all have upsized and taken on 8000 nm range, making them far from optimized for routes 3000-5000 nm. New narrowbody programs replacing the 737 and A320 would have to sacrifice too much performance in their primary market to stretch range much past 3700 nm. Therefore the market gap will have enlarged. I think that the 787 sized planes will effectively reach down into routes over 5000 nm well and the new narrowbodies will be able to handle US transcon well. However, the market gap will have enlarged enough to cover a plane that seats less than 250 passengers and is optimized to fly between 3000-5000 miles. That is no longer a niche market. It will encompass basically the entirety of the international 757 market, much of the 767 market, and a portion of the A330 market. It seems that Airbus will have a bigger gap than Boeing without a new product, but I don't think either company wants to abandon this market and I am not sure if airlines will continue to accept less than optimal products a decade from now.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 35971 times:
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Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 7):
What Boeing has proved is that a 739ER is not a true replacement for a 757. Compared to the 757, it holds less people, doesn't have the range and chews up a lot more runway on take off and landing. Quite frankly, I think if Boeing wasn't tied up with the 787 right now they would have already designed a corresponding replacement to the 757. I think they are just holding out becuase many US airlines especially DL and UA still have massive fleets of 757s.

The 757 was "over" designed by Boeing, in the 1970's they had no intention of flying the plane to Europe. It was later in its life after the 767 and ETOPS that the 757 found a market for Atlantic flights. Its a narrow market because most 757 jobs can be done by 737 or A320's.

If flying from Galsgow, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Manchester to Boston, JFK, Newark, Toronto and Washington was so great and $$$, BA would be all over it, Is It ? NO, No way in hell. Its a narrow market. When the 757 dies some of its routes will be history. Single aisle fying today belongs on;y on the "Pan AM : TV show.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 35903 times:

2025-2026 will give them plenty of time compared to 787. A frame larger than 737/320 and smaller than 767/330, NB and WB, it will become middle body, MB  

The opposition to this idea is strong, I don't know why?


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5463 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 35751 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Familiarity with CFRP should result in lighter and stronger structures, so that will help address the weight.

But such improvements can be applied just as easily to a NB, which would maintain a drag and weight advantage while carrying the same number of passengers.


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19693 posts, RR: 58
Reply 17, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 35674 times:

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 11):
The long hauls such as East Coast to Europe or Miami to South America -- the 739ER is a complete joke. I'm sure Boeing knows this and will have to crack a more viable repacement for the 757 within this current decade.

How many frames will this 757 replacement sell?

The vast majority of domestic US and European routes can be served very nicely by the 737/A320 series. There are only a very few US transcon routes and transatlantic routes that really need the 757's performance. The 737MAX and A320NEO will have even better range owing to improved fuel consumption. The A321NEO, which is almost as big as a 757, will probably have the range to do such routes as BOS-SFO, although it probably won't be able to do transatlantic routes very well. Given that the only routes for such an aircraft would be some of the S. American routes and thin transatlantic routes, it doesn't make very much sense to make an entire separate type.

It would make more sense for Airbus to adopt the A321 into Keesje's "A325," with bigger wings, bigger engines and strengthened landing gear. And even then, that's a lot of re-engineering, so it might not even make sense.

For 80-90% of the routes flown by 757's today, the 757 is too much airplane, but the airlines, having the airframes, have to use them. Designing an entire new type for the remaining 10-20% probably won't make any OEM any money.


User currently offlinemilesrich From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1998 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 35658 times:

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 2):
Here we go again: 757NEO, 757NG, 757-8X, 757-900ER blablabla....

From what I understand, the 757 tooling is gone and they will have to start from scratch. IMHO, a 757NEO would have made a lot of sense. There is more than just a niche market. Yes, the 757 was over engineered, or overpowered, etc., but that is why it is still a first line airplane 30 years after it was introduced. The 757 was really a 727NG with only two engines and much improved range, as well as much more capacity, providing an airplane that fit the the markets of the original four engine jet aircraft as well as the 727-200 with only two flight crew members and two engines. Quite a feat 30 years ago, but the market for such an aircraft is still there. I am sure that if Delta could get more -300s, they would.


User currently offlineTOMMY767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 35583 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 17):
The vast majority of domestic US and European routes can be served very nicely by the 737/A320 series.

Yeah, for right now. Eventually the A320s and 738s will get old too and then what? I think Boeing and many US carriers are in denial when it comes to retiring the 757. They really do take it for granted. The 739ER cannot fly TATL or to South America. Note that CO used the 739ER for a bit from LAX to HNL but don't anymore because it was taking payload restrictions. And what's worse than taking payload restrictions when a route such as that depends on cargo for profit to offset the junk fares?

The 739ER is a fine airplane, but it CANNOT replace some ops performed by the 757. The A321NEO will be good for USAirways, but I don't see Delta or United ordering it either. Expect many Euro orders for this particular bird.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
NO, No way in hell. Its a narrow market. When the 757 dies some of its routes will be history.

Somehow I doubt this.

Some people probably thought the same thing when the DC8 and 707s were retired back in the 80s.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlinemcpcshowcaseHD From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2009, 6 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 35550 times:

A replacement for the 757 would be an exciting addition to Boeing's aircraft family. The 757 has it's own niche, so if Boeing can make a business case work for a replacement they should go for it.


by mcpcshowcaseHD
User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5190 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 35547 times:

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 19):
The 739ER is a fine airplane, but it CANNOT replace some ops performed by the 757. The A321NEO will be good for USAirways, but I don't see Delta or United ordering it either. Expect many Euro orders for this particular bird.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
NO, No way in hell. Its a narrow market. When the 757 dies some of its routes will be history.

Somehow I doubt this.

I agree, what will happen is that airlines will place larger planes or aircraft that aren't really suited and take losses or smaller profits until Boeing or somebody comes up with a 757 replacement. I think most airlines are probably hoping that air traffic will grow enough on most of the 757 routes that they will ultimately support larger widebodies. Yes, the 321/739 can fulfill 80-90% of the role of the 757 but that 10-20% is a very lucrative one that cannot be ignored forever.



Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlineHmelawyer From United States of America, joined May 2011, 65 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 35494 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 17):
There are only a very few US transcon routes and transatlantic routes that really need the 757's performance. The 737MAX and A320NEO will have even better range owing to improved fuel consumption. The A321NEO, which is almost as big as a 757, will probably have the range to do such routes as BOS-SFO, although it probably won't be able to do transatlantic routes very well. Given that the only routes for such an aircraft would be some of the S. American routes and thin transatlantic routes, it doesn't make very much sense to make an entire separate type.

Agreed this would be a small market. However, how many routes need a 767's performance, but not a 787's performance. Add these routes to the 757 market that you mention and you seem to have a very good market that will need an airplane by the middle of the next decade.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 35390 times:

NSA is the 737 replacement, NAS(New Airplane Study) would be the 757 replacement. I have a hard time to see all routes being optimal with either 737/320 or 787/350. In the long run this will be the lineup. 767 will be EOLed first, followed by 330.
We already saw awful numbers with the 787 in Japan, even worse than 767 on shorter routes.


User currently offlineaviatorcraig From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2010, 218 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 6 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 35235 times:

OK, so what is the potential worldwide market for such a plane? mid to upper hundreds maybe? Not enough to tempt A or B to build a new design. They want to build aircraft in the thousands to recover the enormous development costs and return a profit for their investors.

Enter the Chinese - a nation that has ambitions to be a bigger player in aerospace, who would have no problem in the concept of the state supporting the development costs, and a country that has a significant home market. A several hundred unit production run of a flagship technology product in an uncontested market would look quite appealing to them.

A 757 replacement would give the Chinese a rather unique product to offer the World's airlines and give them the vehicle with which to put in place the essential international support network that could be used to assist in the sales of many other products.

I'm old enough to remember people saying Toyota would not sell cars to the masses and Airbus would only ever sell a few oddball aircraft...

Far-fetched? Maybe, but come back in twenty years and tell me I was right!   



707 727 Caravelle Comet Concorde Dash-7 DC-9 DC-10 One-Eleven Trident Tristar Tu-134 VC-10 Viscount plus boring stuff!
25 redzeppelin : I wouldn't discount the Russians either.
26 MountainFlyer : As much as I would like to see it happen, that's my general consensus as well.
27 sweair : Done right this aircraft could take some market from 321/739, all of 757 and the lower end of 767/330. Thousands of units is not impossible. Looking a
28 airbazar : Same applies to the gap between A321 and A358. It's huge. Someone will develop this plane at some point and it will sell well. There are some markets
29 TOMMY767 : US carriers won't be buying a 757 replacement from Russian or Chinese companies. Perhaps pressure could be put onto Boeing to make a viable 757 repla
30 AS739BSI : I was hoping for an announcement like this due to the 757s niche markets in long-thin passenger routes that can also take on cargo. They are a major w
31 nomadd22 : CFRP has a minimum thickness because of impact requirements, so it doesn't have the same advantage when scaled down. It wouldn't have a weight advant
32 MountainFlyer : Pressure in the form of, sales, maybe? I highly doubt that Boeing is sitting back thinking, "We really just don't want to make a 757 replacement." If
33 LPSHobby : Yes, but I was thinking not only in this, but more than this, a new type with the 757 size and a bigger range, a plane capable of routes that the 757
34 TOMMY767 : I think they've been a little blind sighted by the 787 in recent years. Basically they have been so involved in the performance and delays from that
35 BMI727 : The eventual replacement of the 757 will most likely be a variant of the 737 replacement. The market is just tiny in comparison. The 737-800 backlog
36 MountainFlyer : Maybe, but I think they have bigger fish to fry in the form of the 777 upgrade/replacement than a small(er) market product like a 757NG. I still don'
37 TOMMY767 : Some 777s will be replaced by a variant of the 787. The 777 has quite a bit of life left. The 757, in all reality does not. Mainly because the bird h
38 Post contains images MountainFlyer : You don't think the airlines have the forethought to realize the 757s aren't going to last forever? Airlines typically order new types many years in
39 Post contains images PHX787 : I was convinced the 739 was the 757 replacement. I guess not. However, with the 737NG if Boeing could make it fuel efficient and comfortable enough,
40 FlyingCello : IMO, the 737MAX was Boeing's 2nd choice...I think they really wanted to do Y1, but couldn't get the cold-cure composite technology to maturity in time
41 BMI727 : For most flights it is. The flights that a 737 cannot do are not that numerous, certainly not enough to justify a new airframe. It's not practical, s
42 etops1 : Why not just reopen the 757 line ??
43 Post contains images PHX787 : This might work for DL and UA's TATL ops, but I'm not sure how else this would work, in regards to the production line itself. Zach
44 gigneil : It doesn't exist. There's nothing to reopen. NS
45 Post contains images KC135TopBoom : Why would they use an Airbus trademark when they can call it the B-757MAX. Not, it is not a niche market airplane. That is unless you define niche ma
46 MountainFlyer : It's still somewhat of a niche market, at least in terms of the markets where no other aircraft will fit. The 321NEO or the 737-9MAX can fill its sho
47 Post contains images garpd : Like I said before, if Boeing create a 757 sized variant of their eventual 737 replacement, it might work out for them. It would make sense to have a
48 SeJoWa : Boeing will be studying any number of things at any one time. However, what draws me to this idea is the potential to combine new materials technologi
49 rotating14 : Could the 787-3 be the closest thing to the eventual 757 replacement?? Yes I know they stopped with ever making them but could making the 757 replacem
50 penguins : I would have to say that this new 757 would probably be used on the same routes that they are today. I mean what, like 30 757's have been scrapped out
51 gegtim : I never agreed with stopping production of the 757 to begin with. I know it had to be done to accomodate the 787, but I don't see that aircraft achiev
52 Thrust : I'm guessing this could be the potential 797.
53 Post contains images RyanairGuru : I actually think a 757NG could actually be attractive to non-757 operators as well. I'm specifically thinking QF: they currently fly 26 767s on short-
54 GymClassHero : 'Bout time. Boeing's finally answering the call for a true 757 replacement. There's only so far ad-hocing the 737 into the 757's routes can go. Imagin
55 DocLightning : I think that Airbus is targeting the A330R at this market. They will be replaced by the 737MAX and A320NEO. And those will be replaced by the NSR/NSA
56 MountainFlyer : They weren't selling, what is there to agree with? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the 787 had nothing to do with canceling the 757. I'm not rea
57 Stitch : Boeing kinda pitched it as a replacement for the 757-300, but the 787-3's shorter wingspan crippled the efficiency to the point that the 787-8 was be
58 BEG2IAH : If you ever had a chance to see these two aircraft or get on board you would agree that A340 absolutely cannot be compared to a B757. These are compl
59 Stabilator : The 757-300 lost its "heavy" designator on its call sign a few years ago, here in the US.
60 packsonflight : Nobody wanted the 757 new built at full price because when the 738 and 321 entered the marked they replaced 85% of the 757. (every mission up to 2500
61 Post contains images sweair : The more I think about it the more I think it will be done. The market gap where the NBs are too small or lack the range or where the smallest WBs are
62 BMI727 : The issue is that the market is not that big. If the technology is right to build a large narrowbody, then the technology also likely exists to downs
63 Sevensixtyseven : Maybe Tupolev should call Boeing, and vice versa...I know the Tu-204/214 falls flat on it's nose when it comes to range..but if they worked together.
64 rogercamel : Surely the success of failure of such an aircraft rests not only in the US and Europe where most of the 757 routes can be replaced by other airframes,
65 gdg9 : I think the 767 had a fine career, over 1,000 frames sold and still counting.
66 StickShaker : I'm curious that the A310 never gets mentioned in all these threads about a 757 replacement. While the 310 didn't have the same hot "n" high capabilit
67 BMI727 : Not enough that a manufacturer could justify spending large sums of money on it when there are other, larger markets to address.
68 sweair : Lets get back to this the day 767 is EOLed and fuel prices have doubled. Look at the ANA numbers with 788 on short routes. With fuel getting more exp
69 Post contains links BEG2IAH : Thanks for this one, I totally forgot about it. http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Notice/N7110.525.pdf BEG2IAH
70 seabosdca : The vast majority of those sales were before the A330-200 and the heavyweight A330-300 came out. Once those two frames were on the market in the late
71 airbazar : I keep hearing "the market is not that big", it's a "nich market". At 1000+ frames potentially, that's one heck of a nich market. The A380 will sell
72 MountainFlyer : I think you may be missing the point. The number of 757's active today is not necessarily the "market" for an on-par 757 replacement. The improved 73
73 btblue : As mentioned earlier in the thread, I think it is true that Boeing put all of their focus on the dreamliner and increasing the performance of the 737
74 BMI727 : There were 1050 757s built. Boeing has 1500 737-800s on their backlog alone. Airbus booked 1400 A320 NEO orders in a little over a year. Now if you a
75 BMI727 : There was also the not insignificant issue of the 757 lacking orders.
76 btblue : This is very true, and a fact. I can only conclude that a mixture of frequencies etc rather than capacity is what chipped away at the order book. For
77 757gb : I keep reading about the 739 and the 321 doing most of the 75 missions today. So either the airlines fly the 739/321 or the 767 or 332. That's today.
78 SSTeve : "Both of them" seems to be Boeing's answer.
79 Post contains images sweair : Either something new like NAS or the NSA will have to be optimized above the current size. Seeing how A+B abandoned 318 and 736, NB of the future mig
80 milesrich : The 757 is not needed for many shorter thinner routes, but I believe an NEO 757 would grab plenty of orders. I also believe many of those 2900 "order
81 Tan Flyr : Yas..that was Lion Air. There was just an article in the WSJ about the airline industry in such places as India that may soon be oversaturated..Indon
82 Post contains images sweair : Airbus had the 325 in consideration one time, 797 might be a 757 replacement rather than the 737 replacement. The 787-3 was cancelled it had a range o
83 KC135TopBoom : Boeing still offers the B-767-200/ER. It is the closest replacement airplane out there for the B-757-200/-300 and A-310-200/-300. But this model of th
84 aviators99 : The 757 for long hauls is ALSO a joke! Tech stops abound, in the winter. People seem to forget that the 757 was a replacement for the 727. It has bee
85 nycdave : Why do so many people think this is simply about a 1:1 757 replacement? If that's all it were, then yes, it'd be a tiny little niche market that only
86 nycdave : BA also opted for a different route model - they've opted for a single-hub operation, and all of their "domestic" spokes are short-haul. While that's
87 dfwrevolution : There's also huge span between the 77W and the A380, but very few airlines see the need for a 747-8 to fill that gap. There's a gap of equal proporti
88 Post contains images nycdave : IIRC, the Y1 and Y2 ranges were to leave no gap (as were the Y2 and Y3 to overlap), with the clean-sheet NB going up to 200, and the Y2 ranging from
89 Highflier92660 : At some point in the near future there will be a need for a 757 replacement, if not domestically but on transatlantic routes. Too bad the present Boei
90 dfwrevolution : Obviously, but as stage length increases, the premium cabin will take more floorspace for things like sleeper seats in J. If we're talking about an a
91 sweair : Seeing how even the 783 was a failure I fail to see how a 788 will do better on the same routes. 114t airframe is a lot of extra fuel burn, we have s
92 Post contains links KC135TopBoom : That may just breath new life into a B-787-3, but updated with a little more range than the original 3000 nm. It should carry 200-250 pax, cargo simi
93 NC1844V : Id suspect a close look-a-like to the current 757. Same size, range. Just with updated wings and the next generation power-plants as well as cockpit t
94 dfwrevolution : We are throwing around all sorts of different capacity and range points without clearly differentiating between them... First, the Japanese carriers
95 BMI727 : But it is not nearly as large as the market for the adjacent smaller market. Manufacturers can't just pull these planes out of their asses, it takes
96 ebj1248650 : You make a very good point, but will the airlines take a rehash of an airplane that has been out of production? My guess is that they'll want somethi
97 Daysleeper : I’ve lost count how many times this subject has been discussed on here, and I’ve yet to seen anyone put forward a good reason as to why it would b
98 PPVRA : All those airlines flying within a sub-optimized 767/330/787 you mentioned earlier may be willing to add a new aircraft type to their fleet, too. Now
99 SchorschNG : I doubt this. The reason was a mixture of factors. The seats-to-floor area is worse, but that only increases the weight slightly, and doesn't ruin th
100 Burkhard : I do not see the 737MAX resp A320 as an interim solution, but give it a life span of 15 years minimum. I do not see any replacement for them before 20
101 seabosdca : I honestly think that only two factors were meaningful in the 767's loss of market position to the A330: 1) the fuselage width and 2) the wing. The a
102 nycdave : Ah, but the point is it's NOT just a capacity gap... it's also a range/performance gap. Unless performance is so improved with the MAX/NEO that a 321
103 babybus : Why doesn't Boeing just buy the A321 production line from Airbus? It is a trusted, high tech brand which is popular all over the world and going from
104 Post contains images airbazar : You speak of it if that's such a simple solution. I suspect it would lead essentially to a new plane, awfully similar to say, the 787 If re-winging a
105 Daysleeper : Is there a reason everyone seems so adamant that the A321NEO won’t be TATL capable? There is currently a 700nm difference in range between the 752
106 GCT64 : It seems to be widely accepted that the A320/737 single-aisle replacement will be optimised at a slightly larger size than the aircraft it is replacin
107 ncfc99 : The 739 and 321 can replace the 757 on most of its flights. If you need to carry 200 pax up to 3400ish nm, the 739max or the 321 neo will be fine for
108 TOMMY767 : Well then US carriers have a bit of a problem then. What are they going to do on the TATL routes once the 757s get to retirement age? 739ERs won't be
109 Hmelawyer : I agree that the the 788 will come in around the same seating capacity in many configurations as the 767, which appears to close the capacity gap as
110 Post contains images Daysleeper : Love it The ultimate way to win a debate; Tell people they can’t mention the solution unless it exactly fits your view. This whole thread is about
111 nycdave : Good argument. I actually wonder if part of this talk of a "757 replacement" is just an aspect of the new clean-sheet Y1. It does indeed seem that A&
112 Post contains links Daysleeper : Just reading though this artical that was linked too in another thread, and it now seems Airbus are predicting a 600nm increase in range for the A321
113 drerx7 : Its not just range...its payload that you have to look at as well. How does the 321 NEO compare to the 757 in all aspects.
114 TOMMY767 : I don't think I was really trying to win any debate. I was just saying that name dropping the 737MAX/A32NEO isn't really solving the problem of repla
115 seabosdca : Missed this earlier... but your 3900 nm figure is for a non-wingleted 757. The winglets add about another 150 nm, and every single operator using 757
116 Daysleeper : Fair point, so the difference as it stands is going to be around 200-250nm – Which still means the A321NEO will be ideally suited to replace 757’
117 eaa3 : Also it could probably do KEF- Eastern US/Canada. In many ways the NEO and perhaps MAX are great from flights to Iceland and therefore replacing the
118 Post contains images nycdave : Aww, it's just not as pretty or fun
119 Post contains images Daysleeper : I kinda like the look of the 321, but I agree it won't be as much fun. I love the take-off roll on the 57's
120 SSTeve : It would be interesting strategy to launch a new narrowbody with the first model available only being a 752.5-sized plane with 752 range. Then intro a
121 Coronado : Once Airbus has the 321NEO in operation what would the problem be to design a 30 or so cm wing plug on each side? Using that for additional fuel could
122 drerx7 : I'm just not convinced it is. I really don't believe that the lost freight revenue will be more than made up in CASM savings - especially on the limi
123 seabosdca : That is the most compelling idea I've seen in this thread. Put the 752 + growth equivalent online about 2020, which is when the operators using 752s
124 ncfc99 : I'd say the 321neo will struggle to replace less than 5%of the 757's. If the 321neo can fly 3800nm fully loaded (pax & bags only) and a wingleted
125 Post contains images TomB : Now that Boeing has officially launched the B-737 MAX, which will cover the 135 to 180 seat market, I think Boeing should position the New Small Airpl
126 drerx7 : Yea, gear length, also the 321 and 739 are runway hogs due to their length and thrust to weight ratio.
127 rampart : You are suggesting a shrink from the basic model. Why is it that, historically, shrunk aircraft are not successful or don't launch? The 757-100 was o
128 Post contains images seabosdca : You got it: What SSteve is proposing isn't really a shrink, though, because it would have an entirely different and smaller wing, as well as smaller
129 SSTeve : My thoughts tried to reconcile the "boeing studying 757 replacement" with the very vehement and convincing arguments in this thread that the market i
130 Post contains images rampart : Ah, I see. So, more like the 757 and 767 developed in parallel. Perhaps a bit closer in configuration (i.e. not a WB and a NB). That was a risk for B
131 Post contains images sweair : Like anything new it will be bigger than what it replaces, somewhere between a 757 and a 767 IMO. Then Boeing can use the same systems for its 150-190
132 dfwrevolution : Range is only a liability if the extra structure cannot be put to use for short/medium-haul. Actually flying a 787-8 up to 8,000 nm would require tan
133 planemaker : On several previous 757 threads it was demonstrated that the 738/9 and A321 fulfill well over 90% of 757 missions. The MAX and the NEO will only incre
134 nycdave : Unlessssssssss.... there's some military purpose/program that it could serve double-duty for. By the way... love the idea of a tandem, 757/767-style
135 Coronado : Can a case be made for a single aisle aircraft with Y seats set up as a 3-4. That may be a compromise offering a tigter front section rather than a tw
136 tdscanuck : You'd have an extremely tough time convincing the regulators that you could safety get the people in the windows seat of the "4" out in time...all cu
137 sweair : Is it possible to design a NB with decent 2-3-2 comfort that still has comparable comfort to current 3-3 layout, in a smaller aircraft than 767? On sh
138 par13del : This is now about the US market where the bulk of the 757's now reside. Short memory I guess, Airbus has been proclaimg the virtues of the A321 with
139 Post contains images brindabella : Hi Sweair; some comments from TomB's ideas also ... later-generation plastics, cold-flow etc look very good, but are not actually proven yet, AFAIK.
140 F9Animal : Imagine a 757NG! Yes Boeing, please do it! It would sell like hot cakes!
141 AirframeAS : The problem is, the jigs to build a new build 757 have been destroyed. So the 757 cannot be built. I am beginning to think that Boeing is now really
142 tdscanuck : I don't think there's any way to restart the A310 supply chain in a few months; it takes years to startup a supply chain once it stops. The tool draw
143 Larshjort : I could see the next narrowbody design from either Airbus or Boeing seating 140 to 240 passengers but with 2 different wings. So this discussion is ab
144 planemaker : Not to mention how long it would take to set up the temp line and do the actual build!
145 AirframeAS : Isn't the A300/310 factory line on the same production line as the A330/340??
146 milesrich : They haven't built an A-300 or A-310 in 14 years. Furthermore, the program was shut down five years ago, so the the assertion that Airbus could build
147 2travel2know2 : The B757 replacement is the still in production B767, problem with the B767, -200ER is its often unattractive CASM. If done properly, taking better ad
148 Post contains images sweair : When the A332 is EOLed Airbus has even a greater gap between A321neo and the A358.. It may be Airbus that brings us that 757 replacement first If they
149 Post contains links and images Viscount724 : Make that 5 years. The final A300 (photo below) was delivered to FedEx in July 2007 (first flight April 2007). View Large View MediumPhoto © John R.
150 AirframeAS : I don't think the 767 was really the 757 replacement....
151 HAWK21M : The B767 came just before the B757 & was to complement each other & NOT a replacement.
152 flipdewaf : I don't think the A321NEO/739MAX is going to go here, the A320NEO/738MAX will go in here. Yes the 757 might have been a bit bigger but like we always
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