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How Long Will The Jury Be Out On The 747-8i?  
User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2855 posts, RR: 10
Posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 18935 times:
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How many 747-8i's flying for how long before it's determined that it meets or exceeds performance expectations or not? I have read here that there is a "wait and see" element to the 747-8i and that "IF" it does meet the performance targets set by Boeing - and - if it does we would all see more orders.

So, how long before Lufthansa claims that this aircraft performs greatly and will become an important aircraft type for Lufthansa (or it stinks)?

AND: does the performance of the 747-8F count for the 8i? Or are they different animals?


I do indeed wish the beauty who has done so much for aviation for 40 years continues on!


The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
54 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30436 posts, RR: 84
Reply 1, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 18826 times:
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Well the true performance metrics won't be known until GE has the necessary PiPs in place on the GEnx2B-67 to bring it to (or better than) the original spec SFC.

In terms of OEW, I would expect the first 747-8s to be closer to spec than the first 747-8Fs due to the longer development period allowing Boeing to slipstream lighter components into the design. That being said, I am pretty sure I have read the initial 747-8 airframes are heavier than Boeing originally projected.

I expect what will "make or break" the 747-8 Intercontinental is how many airlines can find a role for it between the 777-300ER / A350-1000 / 777X and the A380-800 more than perfectly hitting her numbers.


User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3370 posts, RR: 26
Reply 2, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 18556 times:
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The jury will be out as long as there is an A.net to ask the question.. an even 10 years after the last is out of service some knucklehead will ask "was the 747-8i ever a viable fleet member?"

User currently offlineAlitaliaDC10 From Australia, joined Dec 2008, 240 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 18457 times:

I'm pretty sure LH will very pleased with this fine machine...and as an added bonus Boeing will deliver them without either type 1 or type 2 cracks...

IAD is suddenly on my must fly to place  



Orbis non sufficit
User currently offlineliftsifter From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 297 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 18344 times:

Honestly, I don't see many more orders for the plane. I see Boeing has had quite a lot of "the first planes may be heavier than sold." lately, and that all smells fishy to me. Looks like Boeing may have been spewing off numbers in an attempt to make the aircraft more sellable. I think LH will love the plane though, and even if they don't meet specs, I'm sure their better than the -400s by a mile!


A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B738 B744 B763 B772 B77W B787 Q400 E190
User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3370 posts, RR: 26
Reply 5, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 18263 times:
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Boeing first of a model have always been heavy.. so have the Airbus planes.. It's life. The big difference is we never used to announce it in bold type in the headlines. Then consider that while some parts weight can be computed, mechanics don't weight out sealants and lubricants.. they just slap them on until the area is covered. A lot of things are approximate until you actually have a plane to put them in..Wire bundles may have an extra inch or two initially that's a couple ounces to a couple pounds. Dimensions are typically plus or minus 0.01.. for example. if you get all plus sized parts, you have weight, if you get all minus, you have a short airplane.. the rule is tolerances stack to the most inopportune place.

AS far as more orders... read the past threads on this same subject.. 500 planes probably not in the next ten years but then again it's a freighter first and a passenger plane second.


User currently offlineFlyingCello From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2010, 136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 17880 times:

There is a thread on Pprune at the moment, talking about what the 748F is doing in service. In that thread, one pilot suggests the aircraft is bettering Boeing fuel predictions by 2-3%. If that is the case, then the 748i may turn out to be quite an aircraft.

User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3499 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 17802 times:

Quoting kanban (Reply 5):
but then again it's a freighter first and a passenger plane second.

Kind of strange that what is surely the final incarnation of this great aircraft might ultimately fill its original intended role...

The 747-8 will surely sell more frames as a freighter than as a passenger airliner. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think the airlines (i.e. LH, KE) that can find a role for an aircraft between the A388 and B773/A346 are few and far between. The 747-8 is a great airplane, but I'll be surprised if it sells more than 500 frames. VLA haven't exactly been flying off the shelves in the last decade or so and I suspect that most of that market will probably go to the A380...another aircraft that we're still waiting to see blow up the order books years after its entry into service. Boeing stands to make some money off this program if they can move the freighter in large numbers, but the passenger version is never going to see the popularity enjoyed by its predecessors given the current market conditions...



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently offlineSeJoWa From United States of America, joined May 2006, 337 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 17660 times:

Quoting FlyingCello (Reply 6):
There is a thread on Pprune at the moment, talking about what the 748F is doing in service. In that thread, one pilot suggests the aircraft is bettering Boeing fuel predictions by 2-3%. If that is the case, then the 748i may turn out to be quite an aircraft.

Wow, that was a highly instructive read! Recommended to everyone remotely interested in the Boeing 747-8! Thank you for the heads-up! And truly encouraging!         

[Edited 2012-03-31 03:48:05]

User currently offlineAAplat4life From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 180 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 17584 times:

At the moment, the A380 is having reliability problems. The larger operators such as EK, SQ, and QA have had several problems. Will that turn them to the 748I? Doubtful, but they might take a second look. However, I agree that they will wait for the 777-9.

User currently offlineFlyingCello From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2010, 136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 17225 times:

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 7):
The 747-8 is a great airplane, but I'll be surprised if it sells more than 500 frames

We're getting used to wide bodies selling in large numbers...the 777 reaching the 1000 so quickly is almost overlooked now.

So if the 748 sells 500 units, then I suspect Boeing would be delighted! I personally think 200-300 is possible, and even then I think Boeing would be satisfied.


User currently offlineflylku From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 798 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 16388 times:

Quoting AlitaliaDC10 (Reply 3):
.and as an added bonus Boeing will deliver them without either type 1 or type 2 cracks...

I had the same thought. The two aircraft fill different niches, granted, but at the upper end of the size market, if the cracks in the 380 turn out to be more than media hype and add significantly to the overall cost of ownership, this would open the door a tiny bit for the 747-8. But I doubt it will play out this way.



...are we there yet?
User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 614 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 15652 times:

Hey guys & gals,

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the real reason Boeing introduced the 747-8 was to take market share from the A380?


User currently onlinedennys From France, joined May 2001, 847 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 15258 times:

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 12):

Yes certainly ! Not to mension that the 747-8 project did not cost a lot to Boring to what the A380 did cost to Airbus


User currently offlinenycdave From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 15159 times:

I doubt Boeing is too upset about the program so far. Even if they never get another single customer for the 748i, they've at least managed to sell SOME of them, to defray the cost of the program. That's a bit of a better position than AB, who have yet to sell a single 380F.

The 748F is a given -- while I'm sure Boeing would love to sell more 747i's (and well might, yet), it's not make-or-break for them. In terms of orders at this early stage, I don't think they have much reason to worry. Still plenty of time for it to break out.


User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3370 posts, RR: 26
Reply 15, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 14500 times:
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Quoting rotating14 (Reply 12):
Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the real reason Boeing introduced the 747-8 was to take market share from the A380?


One could say that, however I think the 747-8f was the driver and an effective block to Airbus deciding to enter the large cargo plane market.


User currently onlinedennys From France, joined May 2001, 847 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 11774 times:

Quoting nycdave (Reply 14):

I doubt Boeing is too upset about the program so far. Even if they never get another single customer for the 748i, they've at least managed to sell SOME of them, to defray the cost of the program. That's a bit of a better position than AB, who have yet to sell a single 380F.

The 748F is a given -- while I'm sure Boeing would love to sell more 747i's (and well might, yet), it's not make-or-break for them. In terms of orders at this early stage, I don't think they have much reason to worry. Still plenty of time for it to break out.

Do not worry to much .

1/ Airbus froze its A380F ( i cannot understand why )
2/ CX has to decide btwn A380-900 or 747-8i , i think The 747-8i has a serious chance.

3/ but the real danger for the 747-8i is not comming from Airbus , but from Boeing itself : the 773ER and now the 777-800X/-900X might be born as the 74KILLERS !

Conclusion : take the ones built . Some more are comming.
Cheers
dennys


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (2 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 11045 times:

Quoting AlitaliaDC10 (Reply 3):
and as an added bonus Boeing will deliver them without either type 1 or type 2 cracks...

Yeah ok that took long. So i'll bite :-P

Will there be a convertible edition then?

Back to topic.

I am sure those airlines that wanted the 748 would likely have ordered by now. LH group will likely expand their order...
I would like to see though, is a bigger 748i fleet. I just wonder how big it will grow to...?



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineFlyingsottsman From Australia, joined Oct 2010, 507 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9325 times:

Will airlines like United and Delta be interested in the 748i as they are 744 operators even though Delta got their through the NW merger. Their 744s are getting on now will they replace them with the 748i?

User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1811 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9193 times:

How much better is the 748F compared to the 744F? Boeing has no range charts with 748F on their page..

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30436 posts, RR: 84
Reply 20, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 8889 times:
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Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 18):
Will airlines like United and Delta be interested in the 748i as they are 744 operators even though Delta got their through the NW merger. Their 744s are getting on now will they replace them with the 748i?


UA and DL have both refurbished / are refurbishing their 747-400 fleets so they look to be keeping them around until the end of the decade when they will have the option of going bigger (A380-800 / 747-8) or going smaller (777X / A350-1000) with their replacement.


User currently onlinemham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3528 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 8784 times:

"Fuel burn is about the same or slightly less than the 400 for a greater weight. We had 8tonnes/hour in the cruise the other night at around 385t. The 400 was a fairly constant 10t/hr.

Seems to be a huge clue there...


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1535 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 8716 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
UA and DL have both refurbished / are refurbishing their 747-400 fleets so they look to be keeping them around until the end of the decade when they will have the option of going bigger (A380-800 / 747-8) or going smaller (777X / A350-1000) with their replacement.

I still think this is more of a possibility than often gets recognized. I realize that UA at least has been adamant about the A350 replacing the 747s, but at the right price and terms I don't believe a VLA order is entirely out of the question.


User currently offlinenycdave From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 8550 times:

Quoting mham001 (Reply 21):
"Fuel burn is about the same or slightly less than the 400 for a greater weight. We had 8tonnes/hour in the cruise the other night at around 385t. The 400 was a fairly constant 10t/hr.


Solid 20% improvement over the -400? And on an early production/test model? That's pretty impressive... could make the 748i attractive if, in a more expensive environment, an airline is worried about filling an A380 at capacity and full fare...

Although, of course, that's why UA said they're getting out of the VLA business and taking the A350 to replace the 744s...


User currently offlinepacksonflight From Iceland, joined Jan 2010, 378 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8410 times:

Quoting mham001 (Reply 21):

"Fuel burn is about the same or slightly less than the 400 for a greater weight. We had 8tonnes/hour in the cruise the other night at around 385t. The 400 was a fairly constant 10t/hr.

Seems to be a huge clue there...

Here is a clue.... The Cargolux birds where burning 2.7% more than promised and they where 7t overweight. Possibly Boeing is trimming the extra weight as we speak. but the extra burn has not bin solved yet and it will not be until GE issues a PIP


25 Post contains links Viscount724 : See the first chart in the following Boeing document. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/airports/acaps/7478sec3.pdf Link to equivalent document for ot
26 Thrust : I can't imagine why the 747-8I might not end up doing a little better in the future...it is slightly more flexible than the A380, which is always goin
27 Post contains links and images rotating14 : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new...h-six-months-in-service-2012-04-04 Looks as though she isn't doing all that bad. Granted until we hear from an
28 SYfan100 : There will be always a demand on select routes for a aircraft like the Boeing 747-800 size. Remember this is not way back in the 70's and 80's era whe
29 SEA : So true! The -8i is a difficult question to consider, specifically because Boeing never expected it to be wildly successful, for several reasons. 1)
30 Post contains links Stitch : As Randy T Says 748-F Better Than Expected (by ER757 Apr 4 2012 in Civil Aviation) has been locked due to personal attacks against a member, maybe tho
31 pnwtraveler : Thanks Stitch your comments are always well thought out and factual. And to be fair to Randy, he made a statement that is true. He just didn't spend
32 nycdave : Wait, so, I'm just kind of curious... how is ONE data point unreliable and ignorable, but unsubstantiated speculation based on ZERO data points is...
33 mham001 : Where did those numbers come from?
34 zeke : The huge clue is to take the reality test, that fuel burn is lower than the 77W. I did some more calculations today, at that sort of weight, the 747-
35 Stitch : Boeing has completed testing for both the 747-8 and 747-8F so they have "solid figures" and those have been used to generate the Airline Nominal Perf
36 trex8 : So for those of us who are technically challenged, if trip costs are "nearly equivalent" and except for landing charges,which would be higher for the
37 Daysleeper : Where does the A380 fit into this? I thought it also had the same trip costs as the 744.
38 Stitch : Before certification, the 747-8 at MTOW and MZFW (975,000 and 642,000 pounds, respectively) was projected to fly 6250nm on 333,000lbs of fuel. The 74
39 travelhound : My understanding is the aerodynamics of the 748 are better than first envisaged and as such there is fuel burn advantage associated with this. This is
40 Post contains images Stitch : Boeing says the 747-8 is more economical than the A380 and Airbus says the A380 is more economical than the 747-8, which is what you'd expect them to
41 Daysleeper : Boeing compare CASM using a 467 seat three class 748, which is a total joke. What I was interested in though, was how they compare in terms of trip c
42 Stitch : SQ have said something, but I don't recall what it was. Astuteman has the figure, so when he drops by... Back in February 2006, Airbus claimed the A3
43 trex8 : IIRC it was @5% more for the A380
44 Post contains images sunrisevalley : How about explaining the joke for those of us who don't get it
45 Daysleeper : The Airbus standard three class layout for the A380 has 525 seats, just 11% more than the 467 Boeing quotes for the 748i. This of course would be fin
46 PVG : Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 37): Where does the A380 fit into this? I thought it also had the same trip costs as the 744. Boeing says the 747-8 is more
47 Stitch : When LH was considering 405 seats in the 747-8 and 549 in the A380-800, the respective figures were 3.5l and 3.4l.
48 IndianicWorld : Don't be sure sure. Its hard to acurately pinpoint anything at this stage. Wait a couple of years of flying to accurately measure that.[Edited 2012-0
49 PVG : Thanks! So, then the decision is basically how many seats they think that they can fill regularly and price. If a route can only support 350-400 seat
50 thegeek : How about a link? I couldn't find the thread you are talking about.
51 sunrisevalley : do you know what sector distance they used ?
52 Stitch : They didn't say. Their chart does show range for the 747-8 at 13,500km and 12,000km for the A380-800, so that might be the distances they are calcula
53 sunrisevalley : . Compared to the CX -400 fleet average of 11.1t/ hr this makes the 747-8i burn about 13.9% more efficient based on the MZFW of both aircraft.
54 zeke : The longest route LH would operate the 748 on is also their longest, FRA-EZE, it is around 11,500 km/6200 nm great circle. The current planned routes
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