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Will Lufthansa Order More A380s?  
User currently offlineIrishpower From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 386 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15888 times:

I was wondering if you think LH will order more A380's? It looks like their initial batch of 10 planes is going to be delivered soon and do you think they will order more? When?

47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSQ22 From Germany, joined Feb 2012, 99 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15805 times:

Lufthansa had initially 15 on order and later they added two more frames (as far as I know).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...thansa-brief-idUSL3E7KT3G120110929


User currently offlinecolumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7088 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15581 times:

They will definitely order additional frames, they did that with every aircraft in their fleet. They usually buy aircraft in two tranches


It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineAsiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 15249 times:

With 17 A380 and 20 748 replacing 30 744 in Lufthansa's fleet, they have already covered the VLA fleet well. How many A346 routes can we expect to be upgraded to VLA size?


SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
User currently offlineirshava From Ukraine, joined Oct 2011, 244 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 14270 times:
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Any chance of seeing the A380 on multiple services to JFK?

On a side note, word on the street is that the A380s have proven really popular with the carrier which is why they exercised rights for more planes.

Also - are there any plans to start phasing out the A343s/A346s? Although they aren't old.



“If you were born without wings, do nothing to prevent them from growing.”
User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 14104 times:

It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order. They have 20x 748 on order and hold another 20 options. Considering that LH appears to look at the 787 as their A340 replacement, these 57 frames (40x 748 + 17 A380) seem more than enough to replace 744s, some A346s and allow for further expansion. Maybe LH won't excersize all of the 20 options because either they, or their customers, aren't happy with the bird in which case I could see another 6-10 A388s in LH's fleet.

But as long this isn't the case, the 748 is a much safer bet. Less seats to fill, more cargo space and able to fly into any airport that can't currently accomodate the A388 (EZE, GRU, MEX, etc.)

Would be interesting to foresee though how the resale value of these both airframes will develop over the coming years. One would think they'll have to stick with the 748 until the scrapeyard does them part.



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6959 posts, RR: 63
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 13784 times:

Quoting something (Reply 5):
It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order.

It's hard to believe they won't! The fact they they added two to their order last year says it all.

I could see the A380 becoming what the 747-400 was for many years in LH's fleet while the 747-8i becomes what the A340-600 was/is.

Thirty A380s and a couple of dozen 748s? Looks good to me.


User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 13272 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
Quoting something (Reply 5):
It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order.

It's hard to believe they won't! The fact they they added two to their order last year says it all.

I could see the A380 becoming what the 747-400 was for many years in LH's fleet while the 747-8i becomes what the A340-600 was/is.

Thirty A380s and a couple of dozen 748s? Looks good to me.

I used to be of the same opinion, until LH's ordered 20+20 748s and intends to replace A340s, including the -600 series, with 787s. I could see them order another handful of A380s, but unless the 748 under-delivers, I just can't see a substantial follow up order - at least not within the next 5-6 years.

In fact, I think LH will have to shift their focus from FRA to BRU, ZRH, MUC and ideally even LIS (LH buying TP would be amazing) in the long run. Maybe they'll be forced to defuse their FRA hub even more, by growing DUS and even BER? Those are all reasons against (many) more A380s.



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently onlineFRAIAD From Germany, joined Feb 2011, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12605 times:

Why would LH ever shift flights from FRA? It's their primary hub and, with a new runway and in the next couple of years a new terminal, has enough capacity to accomodate any growth that they want. There is a reason why all A380s and (supposedly) all B748s are going to be based in FRA. I'm sorry for MUC, DUS, BER, BRU or whatever other place people have in mind but it's simply not going to happen.

User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4405 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11654 times:

My estimate is LH has around 20 A380 end of 2019. So another order of 2-4 planes might happen. I do not expect any big order - giving the framework of LH-Airbus even single plane orders are possible if either required or a good possibility opens, since they get the same conditions if they purchase one or ten.

User currently offlinegigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11623 times:

Unless I am seriously mistaken, there is no Lufthansa order for the 787.

NS


User currently offlineflyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 594 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11572 times:

I can see LH ordering new planes as part of a A389 Launch. Given newer engines they will replace the old ones, as they may sell them for reasonable good price around 2020.
I don't see a top up for the 388.

The 748 will basically be the replacement of the A346, especially if LH once a day would introduce something like economy +.

Their next focus however will be a 250 seater for the LH group Airlines to be sent from smaller hubs.

Boeing will bend over for a new business with them and I can see a combine order of A350-1000 and 787s (not sure which Size)

regards

flyglobal


User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2135 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 10937 times:

Quoting something (Reply 7):

I used to be of the same opinion, until LH's ordered 20+20 748s and intends to replace A340s, including the -600 series, with 787s. I could see them order another handful of A380s, but unless the 748 under-delivers, I just can't see a substantial follow up order - at least not within the next 5-6 years.

Yeah, I think the two-aircraft top up tells us quite a lot about the fleet size LH intends for the A380.

LH will order more, but not anytime soon.

Meanwhile, they seem to be able to sell their 380 tickets for higher prices (though not officially). I'm trying to book tickets to PEK, and it's consistently more expensive via FRA than via MUC, even though MUC has better timings.

Quoting something (Reply 7):

In fact, I think LH will have to shift their focus from FRA to BRU, ZRH, MUC and ideally even LIS (LH buying TP would be amazing) in the long run. Maybe they'll be forced to defuse their FRA hub even more, by growing DUS and even BER? Those are all reasons against (many) more A380s.

Like other posters, I expect more growth for FRA. The ban on night ops doesn't affect LH Passage that much, and with the new terminal etc., there is plenty of potential in old FRA yet. They have to work on their image though. In the last years, passenger opinions about FRA have been drifting dangerously close to CDG territory.

Quoting gigneil (Reply 10):
Unless I am seriously mistaken, there is no Lufthansa order for the 787.

  Is the 787-10 even offered yet?



Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently offlineWAC From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 275 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10307 times:

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
Meanwhile, they seem to be able to sell their 380 tickets for higher prices (though not officially). I'm trying to book tickets to PEK, and it's consistently more expensive via FRA than via MUC, even though MUC has better timings.

Do not think this is down to the A380...FRA always carries a premium above MUC on most routes. This is due to higher yielding O&D passengers and more and better connectivity in terms of routes than MUC. I do not doubt A380 can command higher prices but you need to see it the wider context. If you had B777 and A380 of LH let say departing within two hours of each other then you could compare prices...but from one hub to another it is really difficult to so many differing factors.


User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9662 posts, RR: 31
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 9789 times:

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
and with the new terminal etc., there is plenty of potential in old FRA yet. They have to work on their image though.

The new terminal won't be for LH, however. Long time plans are that LH and star partners take the whole north side T1 + T2 and all the rest the new terminal in the south.. Dis-advantage to the south T3 - no direct rail connection.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
Is the 787-10 even offered yet?

No, but LH is said to be the launch customer, there was a thread recently.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10804 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 9588 times:

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 3):
With 17 A380 and 20 748 replacing 30 744 in Lufthansa's fleet, they have already covered the VLA fleet well.

One should also not forget that when all 17 A380s and 20 748Is are delivered until about 2016 there will still be at least ten younger 744s in the fleet which will serve on until around 2020.
LHs 2008 VLA fleet comprised 30 744s, the 2018 VLA fleet will be 17 A380s, 20 748s and about 10 744s, so will offer almost twice as many seats! Small amendments like two or three more frames in a few years I can see, but its hard to imagine for me that LH will place a sizable A380 order in the next 5 years. The next scheduled VLA order from LH should be to replace the second batch of 744s, and if the 748I is a sucess I would imagine that converting some of the outstanding 20 options for 748s is the more likely choice. I doubt such order would be placed before 2015 though.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8453 posts, RR: 7
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7972 times:
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Lufthansa could have 30 A380's by 2025, Just think of fow many A380 will fly to China alone on a daily basis.

User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2135 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7902 times:

Quoting WAC (Reply 13):

Do not think this is down to the A380...FRA always carries a premium above MUC on most routes. This is due to higher yielding O&D passengers and more and better connectivity in terms of routes than MUC. I do not doubt A380 can command higher prices but you need to see it the wider context. If you had B777 and A380 of LH let say departing within two hours of each other then you could compare prices...but from one hub to another it is really difficult to so many differing factors.

I checked a couple of other routes though, were the price was the same whether you transited via MUC or FRA.

Maybe it's just the the cheaper booking classes sell out quicker on the A380, and LH doesn't actually sell the tickets for more, on the whole.

It really buggers me a bit, because I want to fly the A380, yet I'm required to book the cheapest connection, as per my company. I'll probably end up going via MUC.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):

The new terminal won't be for LH, however. Long time plans are that LH and star partners take the whole north side T1 + T2 and all the rest the new terminal in the south.. Dis-advantage to the south T3 - no direct rail connection.

Sure, but LH etc. will then have plenty of space to grow in T1 and T2. Especially with the new Z gates as well.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):

No, but LH is said to be the launch customer, there was a thread recently.

I know, I guess Gigneil was tongue-in-cheek with his remark.



Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7753 times:

Quoting na (Reply 15):

Couldn't agree more.

There may be a number of destinations that could fill an A380 (ICN, PVG, HKG, BKK, DXB, IKA, CPT, GRU, EZE, CCS, MEX, ORD, IAD, BOS, LAX), but a.) not all of them can handle A380s, b.) many of them are seasonal in their nature and c.) many of them are low yielding. Hard to imagine that those few extra A380 seats could pay for the much higher price of the A388. The 748, I believe, also offers bigger cargo space and some destinations are better served on higher frequencies or from multiple hubs, both of which are reasons that weaken the A380s case. Then there's also the susceptibility of big aircraft to fluctuations in the market (economic downturn, floods in BKK, earthquake in Japan, maybe earthquake in Cali one day etc.). Smaller aircraft are just a lot more flexible.

LAX, GRU, HKG, PVG and maybe ICN are the only destinations that I think are high yielding enough to justify A380 service. The rest will go double daily, or in tandem with MUC, ZRH, BRU, VIE, LIS? service. Should be nicely doable with around 20 frames.

Quoting na (Reply 15):
The next scheduled VLA order from LH should be to replace the second batch of 744s, and if the 748I is a sucess I would imagine that converting some of the outstanding 20 options for 748s is the more likely choice.

  



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4860 posts, RR: 40
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 7674 times:
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Quoting something (Reply 5):
It's hard to believe that LH will top up their current A380 order. They have 20x 748 on order and hold another 20 options.

They also hold 15 A380 options.

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
It's hard to believe they won't! The fact they they added two to their order last year says it all.

I tend to agree with that, though the current refocus on strategy and profitability might delay any orders. And of course the world wide demand for their flights must be there.  .

Quoting something (Reply 7):
I used to be of the same opinion, until LH's ordered 20+20 748s and intends to replace A340s, including the -600 series, with 787s.

Again, they also ordered 15 + 15 A380, out of which they already made 17 fixed + 15 options on A380's.  .

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 11):
I can see LH ordering new planes as part of a A389 Launch. Given newer engines they will replace the old ones, as they may sell them for reasonable good price around 2020.

They are most certainly a good candidate for such version of the A380.

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 11):
I don't see a top up for the 388.

Depending on how the economy will evolve over the years, they might. But they also might not.

Quoting Rara (Reply 12):
LH will order more, but not anytime soon.


 .

Also, according to this link: http://www.airliners.de/wirtschaft/b...erhandelt-ueber-weitere-a380/25286 LH was negotiating with Airbus on the A380 options last September. Now I do not know if the circumstances have changed, but there is quite a real chance that they might take some of the options and will convert them into fixed orders.  .



[Edited 2012-04-02 07:54:42]

User currently offlineSemaex From Germany, joined Nov 2009, 833 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7079 times:

Quoting gigneil (Reply 10):
Unless I am seriously mistaken, there is no Lufthansa order for the 787.

Well, you know, anet speculation..  
Quoting flyglobal (Reply 11):
I can see LH ordering new planes as part of a A389 Launch. Given newer engines they will replace the old ones, as they may sell them for reasonable good price around 2020.
I don't see a top up for the 388

AFAIK LH like EK and CX have stated interest in the A380-900 if (when) it comes out. So I don't think it's a question whether or not LH will order more A380s in the future. It's a simple "when" equation.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 14):
The new terminal won't be for LH, however. Long time plans are that LH and star partners take the whole north side T1 + T2 and all the rest the new terminal in the south.. Dis-advantage to the south T3 - no direct rail connection.

My connection inside the planning department for T3 says that still no final decision has been made whether T3 will be a transit- or O&D terminal and whether or not all non-Star airlines will go in.
In my humble opinion, there shouldn't even be a question about the use of T3... it's quite simple. I'm not an airport-planner though.
Concerning the rail connection: There will be a new S-Bahn line to Frankfurt for T3, maybe even RE-trains. For sure the PTS.

Quoting Rara (Reply 17):
Sure, but LH etc. will then have plenty of space to grow in T1 and T2. Especially with the new Z gates as well.

There's no place to grow in the T1-Z section, because these are just the non-Schengen gates on top of the old T1-A pier, renamed.
I think what you mean is the new "A-plus / A-west" concourse. You're right there, because even though they are just about to finish working on it, it has a lot of room for expansion in the future (given those ugly LH-parking deck and LH-base structures are finally removed)

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
They also hold 15 A380 options.

Which makes me think: Of the 2 airplanes which LH topped up from 15 to 17, are those 2 frames part of the options or do we stand at "17 + 15" now?



// You know you're an aviation enthusiast when you look at your neighbour's cars and think about fleet commonality.
User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3473 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7019 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
They also hold 15 A380 options.

No, the original order was 15 + 5. depending on whether the 2 they ordered last year came from their options or not, they have either 3 or 5 options


User currently offlineka From Switzerland, joined Apr 2000, 662 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 6882 times:

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 21):
No, the original order was 15 + 5. depending on whether the 2 they ordered last year came from their options or not, they have either 3 or 5 options

If you look into LH's financial report 2011, you will see that the additional 2 were converted options. Current remaining options stand at 3.

Ka.



Keep smiling - you might be on Radar!
User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 6749 times:

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 21):
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
They also hold 15 A380 options.

No, the original order was 15 + 5. depending on whether the 2 they ordered last year came from their options or not, they have either 3 or 5 options

That is true.

At this point, much of the A380s future in LH's fleet is depending on the 748s success. If the customer reception of the 748 is as good, if the plane is as reliable and as efficient as the A380, I just don't see more than 20-22 A380s in LH's fleet in the long run. If the 748 however proves to be a disaster, I could easily see those 20 748 options go to the A380. I just find that very unlikely, even though the 748 will most certainly never be the customer-magnet the A380 has been, is and will be.

LH can grow in various dimensions. I'm more surprised that BA's A380 order isn't somewhere around 40.



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9662 posts, RR: 31
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 6477 times:

Quoting Semaex (Reply 20):
My connection inside the planning department for T3 says that still no final decision has been made whether T3 will be a transit- or O&D terminal and whether or not all non-Star airlines will go in.

They are still in the planning process, alright, but whatever the outcome is, it will be O&D as well as transit. Non Star airlines interline with LH and other star carriers, BA has transit pax to QF, many combinations possible

Quoting Semaex (Reply 20):
Concerning the rail connection: There will be a new S-Bahn line to Frankfurt for T3, maybe even RE-trains. For sure the PTS.

for that, the PTS is definately needed to connect pax between 1,2 and 3 easily. The system to separate pax that have not entered Schengen is in place.

If the rail extension is finished by the time T3 is completed in its first phase is doubtful.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
25 nycdave : If only we could combine the layout and facilities of FRA with the customer service and security personell of CDG, we'd have a solid contender for th
26 RayChuang : I think LH will buy a few more A380-800's, but they'll be primarily used on their busiest routes. The routes flown by the A340-600 will probably be ev
27 Post contains images lightsaber : I would expect LH to follow their traditional buying habit with a 2nd batch in a few years. What airports could accommodate the 748I that couldn't fly
28 Post contains images Asiaflyer : Toss the custom and immigration at LAX into this, and we have a mix which will keep the most brave traveller away. The 748i should not offer any nega
29 Burkhard : If a ticket BER-FRA-IAD is 5€ lower than BER-IAD, no government official will be allowed for the expensive flight. And govenment officials in Germa
30 LOWS : Those are in many airports and are not unique to FRA.
31 RayChuang : True, but given that government officials may be carrying very sensitive information (whether on paper or electronically) between Washington, DC and
32 Burkhard : What risk is there in FRA that isn't in BER? And I don't think there is much, if any, sensitive information exchanged that is not known to the French,
33 PanHAM : There's absolutely no need for a "government shuttle" between BER and IAD provided by LH.. They can fly commercially or use the regular Luftwaffe flig
34 Burkhard : Yes, those who have really sensitve information will use Air Merkel. But isn't it cheaper to give the costum agents a can of beer instead of sending a
35 PanHAM : Yoiu mis-understood that, beverages for Embassy fests go by air cargo and are released without any duty, or they are provided nby merchants like Heine
36 Post contains images Semaex : Plus the approach of Toncontin and the humidity of Bangkok To be honest I also believe that the Germany-US government connection stated here is very
37 Post contains images Rara : Yes I was thinking about A-plus. Aren't they going to be called Z? The signage in FRA last time I went there suggested as much. So A-plus gate will b
38 Burkhard : There I agree. It is logical to start with the 748I at FRA until 10 or 12 are available to keep them together, but then some will start to update fro
39 steman : I expect LH to convert the last 3 options into firm orders for the A380, which probably benefit from the original discount price, that is, they wouldn
40 something : And the 747-800 will be delivered with a defunct tail fuel tank and now the plane can only be flown with a newly scripted computer program to compens
41 Cerecl : By the time LH is in a position to order possible follow-ups, many of these problems will no longer be there. Most of the airports that can sustain A
42 steman : Lufthansa is not Emirates and most of all, FRA is not DXB. MUC even less so. Already with the firm orders they´ll have a very big capacity. More than
43 na : The 748F has already reached 97% in the first 3 months, so I do not think that this will be a problem. LH Cargo will surely have to rethink their bus
44 Post contains images steman : Well I guess we just have to wait and see. I personally don´t like to make previsions over 5 years. So much can change in the time frame that, as yo
45 RayChuang : I do think that LH will only assign the A380-800 on its most busy routes from FRA such as NRT, maybe HKG, JFK, LAX, SFO and a few others. As such, and
46 Post contains links airbazar : China has been less than willing to allow LH to fly their A380s there. It seems that every few months they come up with an "excuse du jour". More fre
47 Post contains links and images Semaex : I'm unable to find anything on to the fast go other than this floorplan provided by Fraport http://www.frankfurt-airport.de/cont...content.file/Termi
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