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Which BMI Destinations Will BA Axe From LHR  
User currently offlinebarca From Norway, joined Apr 2012, 18 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12255 times:

Lets have a discussion on this topic. As we know that IAG has bought BMI from LH there are speculations and rumours going on of which routes BA want to keep or axe from LHR when they take over BMI slots that are very valuable. We know we have to wait till 11 May to hear the news.

Here is the list of BMIs destination from LHR today. Some of the routes are also served by BA today-

LHR" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LHR

Addis Ababa, Aberdeen, Agadir, Almaty, Amman-Queen Alia, Amritsar, Baku, Basel/Mulhouse [ends 20 May 2012], Beirut, Belfast-City, Bergen, Bishkek, Cairo, Casablanca, Damascus, Dammam, Dublin, Edinburgh, Freetown, Hannover, Jeddah, Khartoum, Manchester (UK), Marrakech, Moscow-Domodedovo, Nice, Riyadh, Stavanger, Tbilisi, Tehran-Imam Khomeini, Tripoli, Vienna, Yerevan


We know that Nice, Cairo, Riyadh, Moscow, Edinburgh and/or Aberdeen are saved as a agreement that IAG made when they took over BMI.

So the 1 million question is, which of the next destinations will be axed and where will there be new destinations or increased departures from LHR.


My suggestions are that MAN will be kept and increased with 1-2 departures and SVG will have twice departures a day from LHR with BA because this destination is a major oil destination in Europe, which means higher yield. BA have SVG very high on their list to serve this destination. You should remember that SVG is the second profitable route for KLM in Europe after SVO, so BA would like to take a market share there.

I think that Belfast, DUB will also be axed since there are many flights from London to these destinations. Elsewise I think that every destinations on the list that has not been mentioned by me will be axed or not increased where BA serve today since BA would prefer to use the free slots to US like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta. They might also increase daily flights to places like MAD, OSL, CPH, HEL, DEL, Mumbai I think. They might also start a route to Seoul.

These are my suggestions or speculations from me. Lets hear your view of the topic.

48 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineQFVHOQA From Australia, joined Mar 2012, 454 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12224 times:

I see them dropping AMM, they will leave that route to RJ.

User currently offlineCaptainDoony From UK - Scotland, joined Oct 2011, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12172 times:

The BA domestic routes are already run at a high frequency on all the routes so I don't think BA will want to waste precious slots on more domestic when they could easily Increase capacity instead.

I think BHD will remain as a destination for now. Did BA not commit to the service?

I wouldn't be surprised to see BA just doing a codeshare with EI on DUB.

I could see BA dropping some of the Middle Eastern BMI A321 routes (e.g. FRU,ALA) which carry really low pax numbers - from TR's I've read they always seem to have 50 odd pax on board (albeit high yielding).

I think Asian expansion is odds on for what BA will do with a healthy number of the slots.


User currently offlinelisbonbearuk From Portugal, joined Jan 2010, 439 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12165 times:

AGA and RAK will no doubt move to LGW ops with CMN remaining LHR.

User currently onlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3264 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12139 times:

Quoting CaptainDoony (Reply 2):
I think BHD will remain as a destination for now. Did BA not commit to the service?

Willie Walsh, an Irishman said he was glad BA were back on the Belfast route. However when the dust settled and a code share on BFS-LHR works better freeing up slots for long haul, I think it will be dropped. Same goes for Dublin.
BA was happy to see most of the BMED routes go to BMI and most of the traditional Euro routes were dropped years ago.


User currently offlinebarca From Norway, joined Apr 2012, 18 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 12061 times:

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 4):

I don't think that BFS is a high yield route enough for BA to keep this route, so I think that BA won't use their slots there. Code sharing could do well with Aer Lingus.

Otherwise, I think that BA will use their slots to increase their frequency to GIG, Hong-Kong and Tokyo.


User currently offlinerutankrd From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 3010 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 12007 times:
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Manchester has one rotation increase by BA in winter already.

Belfast has been identified by Willy Walsh as likely to remain.

The scottish routes are on the transfer list so are likely to go.

Amman can only remain IF BA end their codeshare arrangements with RJ.

Amritsar will be canned .

Nice and Cairo are up for transfer to another carrier.

The Norwegian routes are likely canned.

Dublin If history serves will also be closed .

Saudi routes merged with existing BA.

Beirut - Good to remain

Some of the oil/gas routes may be retained however the North and West African routes seem bleak.

Khartoum ?

Tehran and Damascus may pose BA some political problems and may be suspended.


User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 27034 posts, RR: 58
Reply 7, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 11981 times:

Quoting barca (Reply 5):

BA already codeshare with EI out of DUB and BFS. There will be huge opposition to BHD-LHR being axed and I think BA will keep BHD as suggested. DUB is 50/50 .


User currently onlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3264 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 11970 times:

BA's own LHR-BFS was a massive loss maker due to BA's internal costing and accounting. The day that BMI's BHD-LHR moves across, what changes? The problem was revenue allocation, with the revenue going to long haul due to the large number of connections, they tried really hard to make BFS work.

User currently offlineGSTBA From UK - England, joined Apr 2010, 465 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11871 times:

Quoting barca (Reply 5):
Otherwise, I think that BA will use their slots to increase their frequency to GIG, Hong-Kong and Tokyo.

I don't think HKG will see a frequency increase this Winter. BA was planning to continue to operate the route 17 x weekly in the winter. However they have removed the planned 3 x weekly BA021/BA022 from sale for the whole of the Winter timetable

BA will use the slots to increase frequencies on some shorthaul routes (BER & DUS have already had a additional rotation added for W12) and will open 2 or possibly 3 new routes to Asia and South America


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5632 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 11782 times:

Quoting barca (Reply 5):
I think that BA will use their slots to increase their frequency to GIG, Hong-Kong and Tokyo.

PVG is another one.

Plus ICN etc. CAN?



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently onlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7572 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 11773 times:

Many are suggesting that LHR-DUB will be closed. I have no opinion. However I am sure that BA will think very carefully before quitting what is the busiest short haul international route out of LHR.

The CAA web site gives the following data for passenger numbers (millions) on the five busiest short haul international routes from LHR in 2011:

1. DUB: 1.556

2. FRA: 1.468

3. AMS: 1.407

4. CDG: 1.272

5. MAD: 1,191

Of course yields may be a different matter. But if BA do quit DUB a lot of Diamond Club members are not going to be very pleased.


User currently offlinetonystan From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 1441 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 11703 times:

Quoting barca (Thread starter):

I think that Belfast, DUB will also be axed since there are many flights from London to these destinations.

A lot of noise was made early on that the BHD would indeed be maintained! It is a successful route and that airport seems to be more preferred then BFS which EI operates from with its own base.

Sadly however I dont think DUB will be maintained!



My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
User currently offlineTravelsUK From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2007, 134 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 11571 times:

BMI operated a quite extensive series of charter flights over the summer weekends for many years to Greece, amongst other countries, EFL for example had at least 3 flights from the UK every Saturday operated by 319's & 320's for a number of smaller tour operators, any thoughts as to what will happen with these?

User currently offlineHumberside From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 4922 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 11239 times:

Quoting barca (Thread starter):
We know that Nice, Cairo, Riyadh, Moscow, Edinburgh and/or Aberdeen are saved as a agreement that IAG made when they took over BMI.
Quoting rutankrd (Reply 6):
The scottish routes are on the transfer list so are likely to go.
Quoting rutankrd (Reply 6):
Nice and Cairo are up for transfer to another carrier.

It's not really a case of these destinations going or being saved, BA already serve them. And there is nothing to stop BA increasing frequencies or capacity to replace bmi if they so wish



Visit the Air Humberside Website and Forum
User currently offlinerutankrd From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 3010 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 11072 times:
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Quoting Humberside (Reply 14):
It's not really a case of these destinations going or being saved, BA already serve them. And there is nothing to stop BA increasing frequencies or capacity to replace bmi if they so wish

Don't think that's correct , true those routes ARE all operated by BA and that's exactly the reason BA have offered those slot and named routes up for redistribution (if any one wants them).
BA seem pretty satisfied with the existing frequency levels.

In fact the premise of this debate is nonsense since bmi will not exist after the summer schedule so all their current operations end.

BA are now evaluating the whole bmi operation and the number of former bd routes likely to remain is tiny.
The only one that fits automatically is a return to Beirut,

Even what should be a sure fire fit - Amman is posing problems with the need to terminate the RJ codeshare arrangements a one world partner and all.

Some of the CIS routes may fit however may need re-licensing and here the network has contracted from Bmed days.
Just Baku, Almaty (Alma Ata of old), Bishkek, Tbilisi and Yerevan remain.

From that Baku (Gas and Oil) and Tbilisi (Similarly) may remain however BA may well prefer to develop a deeper relationship with S7 via Moscow to connect these areas in future.

As frequently pointed out by one Skipness1E BA DON'T like to do tag-ons and this jeopardises Khartoum and perhaps Addis as well. (Addis is strong *A) but we shall see on these.

As for North and West Africa . BA are already active in Morocco and the Freetown route is a political expedient.

Freetown currently has good premium traffic (NGOs and military advisors etc...)


User currently offlineCaptainDoony From UK - Scotland, joined Oct 2011, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 10995 times:

Quoting TravelsUK (Reply 13):

ABZ had a number of BMI charter flights in the summer season and they have all been canned so I would imagine the same will happen throughout the network.


User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 27034 posts, RR: 58
Reply 17, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 10849 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 11):
Of course yields may be a different matter. But if BA do quit DUB a lot of Diamond Club members are not going to be very pleased.

BA already have an agreement for EI lounge access ( DUB and LHR) and miles earning with EI. It would be great if BA could enhance that agreement to allow access to the EI lounges for all EI flights but I cant see it happening. The Agreement is only for LHR and LGW flights.


User currently offlineCityAirline From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 700 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9900 times:

Quoting barca (Thread starter):
BA have SVG very high on their list to serve this destination.

Yes, during 2010 BA was evaluating new destinations in Scandinavia other than the capitals, and I think GOT, SVG and BGO were the nominated ones. GOT finally won and started receiving double daily A319s in November '10.

This is one route were I imagine an extra daily flight would be no less than reasonable, especially as the current schedule looks like this:

BA790 LHR07.35 - GOT10.35
BA792 LHR15.45 - GOT18.45

BA791 GOT11.55 - LHR13.00
BA793 GOT19.35 - LHR20.40

A big chunk of the passengers fly BA to connect through LHR and with this schedule, it means that if you fly from Gothenburg you can only choose flights departing LHR after 2PM at the earliest, and if you're flying to Gothenburg you can only choose flights arriving LHR at 3PM at the latest!

As an example, next winter GOT-LHR-SAN fits perfectly with its afternoon departure from LHR, while the return is impossible (unless you want to spend the night at the airport) as the flight arrives LHR at 15.20.

Therefore, a third flight with this approximate scheduling would be ideal:

LHR20.30 - GOT23.30
GOT06.30 - LHR07.35

The BA Scandinavia Commercial Manager Peter Rasmussen has said that the route is performing better than expected and that they're there to stay.

So is there a possibility to a third daily?

/Alex



I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
User currently offlinebarca From Norway, joined Apr 2012, 18 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9797 times:

Quoting CityAirline (Reply 18):

Yes, there is a possibility for a 3rd departure to GOT, but it depends if BA would prefer to do that. I think that they are more interested to open new routes or add more frequency to more popular places.


User currently offlineeurowings From UK - England, joined Sep 2011, 298 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9578 times:

Quoting TravelsUK (Reply 13):
BMI operated a quite extensive series of charter flights over the summer weekends for many years to Greece, amongst other countries, EFL for example had at least 3 flights from the UK every Saturday operated by 319's & 320's for a number of smaller tour operators, any thoughts as to what will happen with these?

It depends on whether BA think this is a profitable use for the aircraft against operating scheduled services. However, I don't think finding a new operator for the services will be too difficult. Olympic Holidays finds a new operator every year (after the old one goes bust or wants more money) for their charter services to Greece from MAN and LGW!  

BA CityFlyer has had a similar summer weekend charter arrangement on a smaller scale for the past few years. However, CityFlyer is a separate business unit to BA mainline and is influenced by the weekend curfew at LCY combined with the lack of business traffic that the airport thrives on.


User currently offlinenclmedic From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 343 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9305 times:

Quoting OA260 (Reply 7):
BA already codeshare with EI out of DUB and BFS. There will be huge opposition to BHD-LHR being axed and I think BA will keep BHD as suggested. DUB is 50/50 .

Indeed they do, but this was very much because BA couldn't make any money out of either airport thanks to high competition. This is somewhat a different arena now with BD out of the picture. Also, remember that EI flies out of BFS (the international airport) and not BHD (the City airport that BD flies out of). BA would be foolish to lose an opportunity to get back into this market so I don't think it would be ridiculous to see BA flying their own metal out of BHD to either LHR or LCY.


User currently offlineraffik From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2006, 1716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9108 times:

I would be surprised if BEY was axed- it is currently a 10x weekly operation and has provides year round high loads.
3 of those weekly services continue on to Khartoum & Adis Ababa though. I imagine these two destinations will be axed and Beirut will go down to daily service, perhaps with 767/321 mixture.

Members on this forum have said that Khartoum wouldn't survive as a service in its own right unfortunately and who knows about Adis Ababa..

I guess we will have to see what will happen. It is interesting though- I have 4 BD flights to Beirut booked from now to Christmas.. and I have no idea if they are going to be changed/ cancelled



Happy -go- lucky kinda guy!
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 27034 posts, RR: 58
Reply 23, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 8589 times:

Quoting nclmedic (Reply 21):

Id love to see a split service BHD to LHR/LCY.


User currently offlinerichardw From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 3750 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8354 times:

BA are currently slot sitting with high frequency flights to BCN, CDG, ORY, so there is nothing to stop them retaining BD routes and launching long hauls from current BA slot sitting routes.

25 VV701 : If connectivity is a real problem it could be addressed by simply rescheduling the second of the two LHR-GOT flights to a later slot. It only makes s
26 ba319-131 : - I don't see any increases in Tokyo. NRT used to be twice daily with 744's, it's now daily with a 77W, HND has been added and runs with a 772, this
27 AF022 : Yes, agree, KRT and ADD should go. As said above, tags are no good, but ADD's altitude makes only widebody service viable, and there probably isn't e
28 ZuluTime : Routing KRT and ADD services over AMM and BEY is geographical madness and was only done because of the range constraints of the A321 which can't do LO
29 babybus : As far as I know, BMI never got to make even one flight to Tripoli before the 2011 revolution started. It was timetabled but never actually flew. Thi
30 bwaflyer : bmi holds fifth freedom rights on AMM-ADD and BEY-KRT and significant traffic is carried. There is also significant cargo traffic Actually the inaugu
31 col : Maybe, but someone would need to tell BA where MAN is, no it is not Mansfield. No chance of this. MAN will end up with the BA flights as is maybe wit
32 skipness1E : You are saying LHR-TIP "WILL" be cancelled but you are sure MAN-TIP "WOULD work". On what planet?
33 LX138 : Yeah my thoughts too. BA can't even make MAN-JFK work so there is no way they are going to start MAN-TIP! As far as I knew this route was doing just
34 raffik : When BA last served Beirut , the route was over saturated. MEA operated 747s, BMed operated A321/320s and BA brought in 767s on the Beirut- London ro
35 Post contains images anamericanin : Given the state of relations between Georgia and Russia, and the on-again-off-again flying between Moscow and Tblisi, I don't know that a codeshare w
36 babybus : Because there is a lot of connecting traffic in the north of England. Before the troubles kicked off a lot of oil staff had to fly to Amsterdam to co
37 Post contains links Humberside : For whatever reason, MAN is one of the first European destinations Libyan Airlines wants to resume http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles...tartsMalta-o
38 GSTBA : CAN - This is one destination that could be operated by BA in the very very near future.. ICN is one of the routes that IAG definatly want to open in
39 raffik : All any of us participating on this thread can do is speculate on what will happen, but if we measure likelihood, then we would assume that the route
40 mikey72 : Unless of course they are from the regions because some would have us believe that BA turns its back on profitable routes from these airports out of
41 GSTBA : Agreed. Heard today that BA hope to release there W12 schedule containing ex BD routes in about 6 to 8 weeks.
42 jumpjets : One route that I would expect to see 'axed' is the BMI service to Nice - irrespective of whether any other airline bids for slots to Nice under the EU
43 Post contains links OA260 : I seem to remember during the conflict Sky News were reporting from the large diaspora in Manchester so maybe thats why . ---- Willie Walsh says Belf
44 AIR MALTA : I hope BA does actually keep ADD and may be KRT. In its roadmap, BA has stated that it wants to expand in Africa. Keeping ADD and KRT is then needed
45 Post contains images mikey72 : I hope they decide to repatriate Jersey with the civilized world. Sorry couldn't resist....I know it winds everyone up when you say things like that.
46 RyanairGuru : If by that you mean moving JER to LHR, then I couldn't agree more! If you want to fly long-haul from JER (or the other Channel Islands) then its a co
47 skipness1E : Would be good to add Jersey back into LHR, indeed I was hoping they might be tempted by Inverness as well. Unlikely though in this day and age, it's
48 Post contains images mikey72 : How very dare they even have considered cutting us adrift like that ! On a serious note to make it worthwhile it's a big allocation of daily LHR slot
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