Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Future Of The Turboprop?  
User currently offlineSWALUV From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 113 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 6768 times:

Hi Again,

With so little orders for the Q400, will this be the last version of the Dash-8? I understand that turboprops travel at slower speeds, which can effect there schedule's, but they also save more fuel. With the rising fuel cost, will we see more orders for the turboprop? Also do we think that the 50 seat regional jets will be retired early in-favor of more fuel efficient aircraft?

Plain Questions:
- Will the Q400 be the last Dash 8
- With the rising fuel cost, will we see more orders for turboprops?
- Also do we think that the 50 seat regional jets will be retired early in-favor of more fuel efficient turboprops?

47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinebaje427 From Barbados, joined Jul 2011, 405 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 6719 times:

The Q400 might be the last Dash 8 but the ATR is doing extremely well and have plans to offer a 90 seat version the turboprop will be around for a while longer.

User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1945 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6689 times:

Bombardier can save the Dash8 line by upgrading the Q300. Throw on Q400 engines and avionics, minor aerodynamic advances, and strengthened landing gear for a higher MGTOW. Combine all of that and you got a pretty damn good turboprop. Especially one that is a great replacement for 50 seat RJ's.


Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2084 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6630 times:

Does the 300 really need the higher max weight or new engines? The gain in speed would come with a significant increase in fuel consumption.

User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1945 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6574 times:

I guess it does'nt need the higher max weight, but the Q400 engines should give it speed and range since they power a lager aircraft. I was thinking kind of like what Boeing did with the 77W wings and engines and put them on the 772 to make the 772LR, Bombardier could do the same with the Q's.


Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 476 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6514 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 4):
I was thinking kind of like what Boeing did with the 77W wings and engines and put them on the 772 to make the 772LR, Bombardier could do the same with the Q's.

The 772LR isn't selling all that well. It's a niche aircraft. If regional operators want speed and range, they'll go for jets. The name of the game these days is efficiency, the primary advantage of a turboprop for shorter flights which would be lost if you overpower them like you have described.



SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently offlinebaje427 From Barbados, joined Jul 2011, 405 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6460 times:

The 50 seat market is not the way to go for turboprops BBD should instead try to make the Q400 more efficient while still having the speed.

User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11648 posts, RR: 60
Reply 7, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6426 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 2):

Bombardier can save the Dash8 line by upgrading the Q300. Throw on Q400 engines and avionics, minor aerodynamic advances, and strengthened landing gear for a higher MGTOW. Combine all of that and you got a pretty damn good turboprop. Especially one that is a great replacement for 50 seat
Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 4):
I guess it does'nt need the higher max weight, but the Q400 engines should give it speed and range since they power a lager aircraft.

Definitely not, this would ruin the aircraft and it's economics. One of the biggest issues with the Q400 is that it aspires for the speed of a prop but nears the fuel burn of a jet without actually being one. A Q300 with larger engines would be an economic nightmare, it doesn't need any strengthening or beefing up either and generally it doesn't need the Q400's speed for the missions it flies. The major issue for Bombardier is ATR; the 72-500/600 can do what the Q300 does in exactly the same situation with broadly similar costs but with almost 20 extra passengers, as such I see no way back for a new build Q300 unless it can break into new territory. Even the Q400 is being pinched from both sides.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinerampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3128 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6375 times:

Quoting baje427 (Reply 6):
The 50 seat market is not the way to go for turboprops BBD should instead try to make the Q400 more efficient while still having the speed.

There will be a 50 seat market, and it's best served by turboprops. That said, the Q400 can be revised, and there is a need for even bigger turboprops than the Q400, such as the expanded ATR, and even bigger, I think. It's been discussed in several previous recent threads.

-Rampart


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11648 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6333 times:

Quoting rampart (Reply 8):
That said, the Q400 can be revised, and there is a need for even bigger turboprops than the Q400, such as the expanded ATR, and even bigger, I think. It's been discussed in several previous recent threads.

Yes and no. There is a constant demand for aircraft with lower seat costs but, in the 50-100 seat range, whether that comes in the form of a turbo-prop or a regional jet with next generation engine technology is another thing.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 476 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6328 times:

Quoting rampart (Reply 8):
there is a need for even bigger turboprops than the Q400, such as the expanded ATR, and even bigge

The interesting thing is, the lines between jets and turboprops is beginning to blur just a bit. With GTF and the newer turbofans with higher and higher bypass ratios, it seems that they are getting closer to being turboprops inside of a housing. If you count the blades on a GenX on a 748, there are only eighteen blades I believe.

Anyway, that's just my non-technical, simplistic view of it.



SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently offlinezippyjet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 5478 posts, RR: 12
Reply 11, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 6190 times:

Now with fuel supply and price an issue again we just may see the return of the UDF in some form. As others have said, ATR is doing well and the Dash 8 may get another look from other prospective customers.


I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6152 posts, RR: 35
Reply 12, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6127 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 2):
Bombardier can save the Dash8 line by upgrading the Q300. Throw on Q400 engines and avionics, minor aerodynamic advances, and strengthened landing gear for a higher MGTOW. Combine all of that and you got a pretty damn good turboprop.

BBD designed such an aircraft, the Q500, 13 years ago. They discuss the concept again every few years but the market has never been interested in it.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineKarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3105 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6124 times:

We kinda hit on this topic on March 28th:

Turboprop Resurgence In The US?

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...chid=5423383&s=Turboprop#ID5423383


User currently offlinePezySPU From Croatia, joined Dec 2011, 283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 5739 times:

Quoting baje427 (Reply 1):
The Q400 might be the last Dash 8 but the ATR is doing extremely well and have plans to offer a 90 seat version the turboprop will be around for a while longer.

Bombardier also followed with the announcement of their own 90-seat turboprop.


User currently offlineTobias2702 From Germany, joined Sep 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 5712 times:

Quoting baje427 (Reply 1):
The Q400 might be the last Dash 8 but the ATR is doing extremely well and have plans to offer a 90 seat version the turboprop will be around for a while longer.
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
The major issue for Bombardier is ATR; the 72-500/600 can do what the Q300 does in exactly the same situation with broadly similar costs but with almost 20 extra passengers,

So, this explains why the Q300 falls back compared to ATR. But what about the Q400? Why aren't there more orders?



PA, AF, UK, BA, AB, DL, LH, FR, BD, A3, EZY, DY //// A319/320/346, B733/735/73G/738/744/763, AT4, 146, CR2, DH4
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 16, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5618 times:

The Q300 was BBD's 50 seater, comparable to ATR's 42. Considering there haven't even been a handful of sales for the 42=600, it doesn't seem like a very lucrative market segment at the moment. ATR is basically keeping the 42 alive since it shares so much with the 72. it doesn't cost anything to offer the plane for sale.


What the...?
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11648 posts, RR: 60
Reply 17, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5505 times:

Quoting Tobias2702 (Reply 15):
So, this explains why the Q300 falls back compared to ATR. But what about the Q400? Why aren't there more orders?

There are several reasons I am aware of.

- Needs significantly more runway than the ATR 72
- Considerably heavier
- It is a fire and rescue (RFFS) category higher than the ATR 72
- Much more expensive to purchase
- Higher fuel consumption than the ATR 72 and being closed in on by the ERJs too
- One approach category higher

I don't think it was a bad design when developed - quite the opposite in fact; the Q400 is an exceptional piece of technology, but it's position in the marketplace has come under pressure from ATR below and especially Embraer above. Undoubtedly it is still a good aircraft for many airlines, but I think Bombardier placed their eggs in the wrong basket by centering the design around speed and performance.


Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 16):
Considering there haven't even been a handful of sales for the 42=600, it doesn't seem like a very lucrative market segment at the moment. ATR is basically keeping the 42 alive since it shares so much with the 72. it doesn't cost anything to offer the plane for sale.

It's not a big market now, but ATR see enough future in it to keep things ticking over as you say. It won't be long before large numbers of Saab 340s, J-41s, D-328s and the smaller Dash 8s need replacing. The jump to a 70 seater is likely to be too much for many of the markets they serve, so I can see the ATR 42 doing well. That said, I also can see a clean sheet 20-30 seater being developed in the coming years.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinebaje427 From Barbados, joined Jul 2011, 405 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5488 times:

Is there no way BBD could make the Q400 more fuel efficient whilst maintaining the speed.?

User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5437 times:

Quoting baje427 (Reply 1):
The Q400 might be the last Dash 8 but the ATR is doing extremely well and have plans to offer a 90 seat version the turboprop will be around for a while longer.
Quoting PezySPU (Reply 14):
Bombardier also followed with the announcement of their own 90-seat turboprop.

Design study right now internally is referred to as the Q400X. I believe a 3 frame stretch to permit 92 pax. Fuse would be comparable to the CRJ1000.

Whether or not the 'X' goes ahead I believe is strongly dependent on firming up the existing production line. The potential WS order for 40, QK and SG options for 15 each would be a huge boost in this direction. Cost to develop the 'X' would be pretty low.

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 5):
The 772LR isn't selling all that well. It's a niche aircraft.

Yes, a niche aircraft that cost very little to develop, since it was cobbled together from existing components. So the risk to Boeing was minimal. About 50 frames in service at the moment.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 20, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5435 times:

Quoting baje427 (Reply 1):
ATR is doing extremely well and have plans to offer a 90 seat version the turboprop will be around for a while longer.

Ooooooo!!!!! Don't tell Bryan Bedford that! LOL!  



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlineLimaFoxTango From Antigua and Barbuda, joined Jun 2004, 784 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5304 times:

Quoting baje427 (Reply 18):
Is there no way BBD could make the Q400 more fuel efficient whilst maintaining the speed.?

What BBD is pitching to airlines now is that they could simply pull back the power and reduce fuel consumption. In other words, they are sacrificing the speed for fuel. Some airlines just don't need the speed that the Q400 offers. Don't think it can be done any other way.



You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 22, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5160 times:

Quoting LimaFoxTango (Reply 21):

At ATR speeds, it burns about 10% more than the ATR. Speed does give you options...faster trip times, the option of making up time or more trips per day. The Q also has twice the range of the ATR, and if you don't need the range, you can leave fuel on the ground and that means shorter takeoff distance, faster climb and more economical cruise with a full passenger load.

Porter has been doing great business out of Toronto Island at loads lighter than MTOW.

I may be in the minority but I think word of the Q400's demise is somewhat premature. I think they have the WS deal in the bag and more deals will be coming in. The vast majority of operators are making money with the planes and more will be buying.

Of course, that's just my opinion....your mileage may vary.



What the...?
User currently offlineGCT64 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 1389 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4867 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 17):
Higher fuel consumption than the ATR 72 and being closed in on by the ERJs too
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 17):
I think Bombardier placed their eggs in the wrong basket by centering the design around speed and performance.

I think these are the problems the Q400 faces. Flybe have made a few comments about the Embraer 175 that suggest the cost of operating it is inline with the cost of operating the Q400.

In Jan 2011 they said "Directors expect that operating E-175 jet will give similar cost advantages to Q400". I have seen other references from Flybe management that suggest that some additional operating cost (for the Embraer) is offset by more attractive financing terms (from Embraer).

Anyway, Flybe are probably the most experienced airline in the world at understanding ERJ versus Q400 economics and they seem to be coming down marginally on the side of the ERJ package.



Flown in: A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,BA11,BU31,B190, B461,B462,B463,(..50 types..),VC10,WESX
User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7152 posts, RR: 8
Reply 24, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4828 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 17):
It's not a big market now, but ATR see enough future in it to keep things ticking over as you say. It won't be long before large numbers of Saab 340s, J-41s, D-328s and the smaller Dash 8s need replacing. The jump to a 70 seater is likely to be too much for many of the markets they serve, so I can see the ATR 42 doing well. That said, I also can see a clean sheet 20-30 seater being developed in the coming years.

  
ATR seems to be doing a much better job of looking at markets outside of the massive North America region, a number of other regions need replacements for older turbo props and a number of them do not need the additional capacity of the Q400, the market for 50 seats is not strictly growth potential. Economics only goes so far when the max pax you are getting per flight is 30-40 but you are being told that the Q400 economics is the same as the Dash 8 with greater revenue potential.
On the flip side, flying on an a/c when the majority of seats are not filled creates a thought in ones mind, pax as well as staff.


25 JoeCanuck : Flybe is also looking to expand into mainland Europe, and there is no doubt that the E-jets make sense for longer routes. Flybe isn't saying they are
26 cbphoto : I'm not sure this is exactly the market they are looking at! How many large fleets of S340s, J-41s or D-328s exist in the world? You have a few niche
27 Post contains images PlymSpotter : They do, the tipping point for BE is around 300nm I am told. At near cost price, not list. Quite a few more will be going. Out of 35 E-175 deliveries
28 Post contains images planemaker : This was the GE team's proposal for a 70% more efficient 30-pax TP for NASA's N+3 study...
29 baje427 : Is QX happy with their Q400's from what I have read on airliners.net their is not too much positive ever posted about the Q400
30 Post contains images Devilfish : Cute! Do the engines have something in common with their Passport turbofan counterpart?
31 iFlyLOTs : I saw a design like that in Popular Science by Boeing for a hybrid turboprop that could potentially replace the 737 by 2035, it would use jet fuel fo
32 Post contains images planemaker : You mean like this...
33 Post contains links planemaker : The design is for a ~2030 EIS time period so the technology is bleeding edge. If you are interested in the details here is the link to the final repo
34 Devilfish : Thanks a lot.
35 Post contains links and images planemaker : And here is the final report for Boeing's submission for NASA's N+3. Again, really good reading... http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/ca...asa.gov/201
36 Post contains links JoeCanuck : I've searched a lot for that info but I can't find it. They did receive very favourable financing which helped the deal along. Flight global reported
37 Post contains links and images PlymSpotter : In post 23 GCT64 mentions some of the quotes which have come from FlyBe on the subject, but I'm afraid I can't provide a further link as I received t
38 planemaker : It isn't the first time this has happened. The CRJ200 killed the SAAB 2000 and the ERJ killed the Dash-300. Yes, that is exactly one of the problems
39 JoeCanuck : That replacement plan goes through 2016...and seems like it includes the 9 already gone. That still leaves a pretty sizable Q fleet...but anything ca
40 Post contains images PlymSpotter : That's my understanding. The first Q400 frames had to go before they could secure the 85% financing on the Embraer order, i.e. raise the 15% themselv
41 Post contains links and images Revelation : The shape of the long slender wings with the bracing remind me of some of the training gliders I flew years ago. Maybe Boeing has a SGS-233 fan in ho
42 MasseyBrown : It's worth noting that UA's Smisek, during this week's earnings conference call, was emphatic that the Pinnacle Q400's will continue flying for United
43 bmacleod : I think turboprops will be around for many years to come. The engine design will undoubtedly advance but I can't see an end, especially for the Q400 a
44 connies4ever : I've actually flown the 2-33. Brings back some wonderful memories, those pics. Thanks. For all you with a PPL, try gliding. It is a blast and gives y
45 JoeCanuck : After flying the Blanik, the 2-33 feels like a river barge. Pearson has never been shy about largely attributing the safe landing in Gimli to his exp
46 Post contains images connies4ever : You're one up on me then ! Actually, despite outstanding airmanship, Pearson should have been fired. He was enormously lucky that his FO had trained
47 Goldenshield : Some that I know are too large (weight-wise) to fit into a 2-33, and had to train in the Grob 103, so they will never get to know just how much a bar
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Future Of The NE Shuttle posted Wed Apr 11 2012 23:04:08 by midex461
UA/CO Future Of The 777 Fleet: posted Mon Nov 28 2011 04:53:35 by Flying Belgian
The Future Of The Current SQ 777-200ER Routes posted Tue Oct 25 2011 12:54:23 by SASMD82
Future Of The 747 QF15/16 posted Tue May 11 2010 03:27:54 by Jackbr
Future Of The CRJ NextGen? posted Sat Jun 13 2009 06:41:16 by CRJ900X
What Is The Future Of The 50 Seater? posted Mon May 25 2009 08:13:43 by LHCVG
Future Of The CRJ NextGen Program? posted Tue May 5 2009 19:39:02 by CRJ900X
The Future Of The Cseries Is... posted Thu Dec 4 2008 14:20:06 by Clipperone
The Future Of The NWA Freighter Operation? posted Sat Nov 8 2008 16:31:54 by Max Q
Future Of The Airline Industry posted Sat Jul 19 2008 04:02:33 by Boeing909