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ANA Loads NRT-SEA Schedule; UA Out?  
User currently offlinen7371f From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1645 posts, RR: 12
Posted (2 years 2 hours ago) and read 10932 times:
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ANA has loaded its Narita-Seattle/Tacoma service into the computer systems:

NH1078 NRT1725 – 1055SEA 77W D
NH1077 SEA1315 – 1545+1NRT 77W D

Note that the service starts on the 777-300 in 2-class service before it goes to 787-8 sometime later on.

But the biggest interest to me is how NH's schedule compares to UA:

UA876 NRT1655 – 0937SEA 777 D
UA875 SEA1309 – 1510+1NRT 777 D

Can we expect UA to quietly pull the SEA route soon? You'll have (2) Star Alliance members basically flying wingtip-to-wingtip. Maybe it depends on UA's corporate contracts (Microsoft, Amazon, etc...). Just questioning the rationale of these many seats suddenly on SEA-NRT on Star Alliance.

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32219 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (2 years 2 hours ago) and read 10869 times:

UA and NH have metal neutrality. They split revenue on this route. It's no different than UA having two daily flights. Weird they both have similar schedules, because they coordinate schedules.


a.
User currently offlineworking2gether From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 83 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 2 hours ago) and read 10808 times:

This is very similar to NH and UA at IAD. Both have daily 777 flights (NH 77W and UA 772ER) and as far as I know the flight loads on both flights are up in the 90%. I think ANA attracts more business and Japanese nationals while tourists and Americans stick to UA but that's just at IAD.

So I would think that UA would not pull out and stay put and see how the flight loads do with the added ANA flights


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2892 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (2 years 2 hours ago) and read 10722 times:

Quoting n7371f (Thread starter):
NH1078 NRT1725 – 1055SEA 77W D
NH1077 SEA1315 – 1545+1NRT 77W D

Note that the service starts on the 777-300 in 2-class service before it goes to 787-8 sometime later on.

But the biggest interest to me is how NH's schedule compares to UA:

UA876 NRT1655 – 0937SEA 777 D
UA875 SEA1309 – 1510+1NRT 777 D

A very common time frame for flights from Asia to the West Coast, I don't see the route being able to give good yields with 3 carriers, I know NW/DL have had this route for a very long time, UA not as long, since 81-83 IIRC, It was UA's first trans pacific route, along with PDX-NRT. But JL, CO, AA and even TG have flown this route at one point or another and didn't stay. I expect UA to drop the route in the future and use the 777 some place else, at that point I'd expect any OO flying for UA in the NW, not to the NW, but in the NW, will end as well, UA has little apparent interest with this region of the country.
They have all but stopped West Coast flying, and ended any flights other than hub flying, many years ago.



Rule number One, NEVER underestimate the other guys greed
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32219 posts, RR: 72
Reply 4, posted (2 years 2 hours ago) and read 10679 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 3):
A very common time frame for flights from Asia to the West Coast, I don't see the route being able to give good yields with 3 carriers,

The route has two carriers - UA and NH are merged trans-Pacific, the new ANA flight does not change the competitiveness of this route for a number stand point.

It will have three carriers when JAL/AA inevitably enter the market.



a.
User currently offlinegabrielz From United States of America, joined May 2004, 69 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 hour ago) and read 10613 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 3):

I dont think you have the full picture.

UA has significant corporate contracts in that market that drive a lot of revenue systemwide.

They include Boeing, Microsoft and Toyota, just to name a few. They are not going anywhere in this market, I suspect.

-G


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2892 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 hour ago) and read 10461 times:

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 5):

I dont think you have the full picture.

UA has significant corporate contracts in that market that drive a lot of revenue systemwide

I get it, I have negotiated contracts with airlines for corporations like Siemens, Ricoh and Wells Fargo. It doesn't mean UA flight numbers can't be flown on NH metal, as others have posted in this thread, UA & NH are metal neutral, contracts for companies that size would have clauses that allow travel on a partner as close as UA/NH.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
The route has two carriers - UA and NH are merged trans-Pacific, the new ANA flight does not change the competitiveness of this route for a number stand point.

It will have three carriers when JAL/AA inevitably enter the market.

Of course it changes the numbers, a whole 777 worth of seats, where there were two flights, now there are three, about 50% more seats to fill on a daily basis. JL & AA have been here before and left, why would they enter an already now saturated market. This isn't LAX or SFO, SEA has a finite number of passengers flying the route daily. Even PDX has a flight to NRT on DL, who has a mileage arrangement with AS, the largest frequent flyer base in the NW, not UA, which is why UA has OO operating flights up to SEA to connect onto NRT and those connecting points beyond NRT. Otherwise they would route everyone via SFO instead.



Rule number One, NEVER underestimate the other guys greed
User currently onlineha763 From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 3601 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 10234 times:
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Quoting n7371f (Thread starter):
Note that the service starts on the 777-300 in 2-class service

It is a 777-200ER. ANA does not have any 777-300ERs in a 2 class configuration. Plus, the ANA website says 777, which means 777-200ER.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 6956 posts, RR: 18
Reply 8, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 10210 times:

How many flights does DL have out of SEA to Japan? I could be expecting them to pull down service instead, but I gotta see what kind of service they have first.


One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineSean-SAN- From United States of America, joined Aug 2002, 765 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 10198 times:

Quoting ha763 (Reply 7):

It's actually a 773ER, F will be sold as C until the 787 takes over.


User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3493 posts, RR: 10
Reply 10, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 10107 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 8):
How many flights does DL have out of SEA to Japan? I could be expecting them to pull down service instead, but I gotta see what kind of service they have first.

In the summer, it's 2x daily SEA-NRT and 1x daily SEA-KIX. They'll pull down in the face of an increased *A presence when hell freezes over--they've (via NW) had a strong presence in the Seattle-Asia market for decades and with all the feed they get from AS there, I'd wager they have the upper hand. If anyone drops out of SEA-Japan here, it's going to be UA.



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2892 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 10065 times:

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 10):
In the summer, it's 2x daily SEA-NRT and 1x daily SEA-KIX. They'll pull down in the face of an increased *A presence when hell freezes over--they've (via NW) had a strong presence in the Seattle-Asia market for decades and with all the feed they get from AS there, I'd wager they have the upper hand. If anyone drops out of SEA-Japan here, it's going to be UA.

  

Pretty much what I've been trying to say in this thread, I can't see UA keeping SEA-NRT with the NH presence. believe me most frequent travellers will be more excited to fly an NH 787 vs a UA 777 in any cabin. I fully see this move as a change from UA to NH on this route. *A doesn't need two SEA-NRT daily flights, when O/W doesn't have even one. NW/DL pioneered this route, DL will dig in to remain dominant at SEA for the same reasons you stated, their huge AS dedicated, loyal frequent fliers. I know many AS travellers that always take DL when AS doesn't fly there, much less on AA due to their limited options from the NW.



Rule number One, NEVER underestimate the other guys greed
User currently offlinewarreng24 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 706 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9837 times:

I sincerely believe that UA will either:

1) Drop with route

-or-

2) Downgrade to a smaller 2-class aircraft (either a PMCO 764 or one of the new 2-class 763's).

Over on FlyerTalk, SEA-NRT-SEA is known as one of the easiest TPAC flights to upgrade.

Premium cabin on this route is relatively lite.

Keep in mind this is just a snapshot of UA875:
4/25 - Booked 4/11 in F, 20/49 in C
4/26 - Booked 2/7 in F, 14/40 in C
4/27 - Booked 1/7 in F, 21/40 in C

[Edited 2012-04-25 05:43:52]

User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 394 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9567 times:

It would make the most sense for NH to operate this route in a metal neutrality world since it is the only 777 flight of the day for UA out of SEA. There is likely a lot of cost that can be saved between the two airlines with NH on the route instead of UA. Additionally, UA can redeploy the 777 unit elsewhere in the system, possibly helping with the 762 retirements and 763 ghetto bird refurbishment.

Again, this only works in a metal neutral, revenue sharing environment. An airline would never drop a profitable route for an alliance partner to fly without getting a piece of the segment revenue.



We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5234 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 9467 times:

Perhaps I missed it but do we have a start date for the NH service?

bb


User currently offlinejoeljack From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 926 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 9454 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
UA and NH have metal neutrality. They split revenue on this route. It's no different than UA having two daily flights. Weird they both have similar schedules, because they coordinate schedules.

They are not metal neutral. You don't get United Million Miler Miles Flying on LH or NH etc. Loyal UA fliers stick to UA metal for this fact. If they are truly revenue sharing across the pacific and atlantic, UA needs to make the revenue sharing flights eligible for Million Miler Status Miles. Then I have no problem with ANA taking over any UA flights or vice versa.


User currently onlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9387 posts, RR: 52
Reply 16, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9030 times:

Quoting gabrielz (Reply 5):

UA has significant corporate contracts in that market that drive a lot of revenue systemwide.

They include Boeing, Microsoft and Toyota, just to name a few. They are not going anywhere in this market, I suspect.

Boeing and Microsoft are the two biggest white collar employers in Seattle and neither of them have exclusive contracts with airlines. They drive traffic, but both companies will choose best available fare through their internal travel agencies. The days of exclusive deals are over. I'd expecct DL to get more of the Boeing/Microsoft business anyway since neither company flies employees in First Class other than executives.

ANA will add more seats which is more competition. In the winter 1 777 and 1 A330 is adequate, but DL typically increases frequency in the summer. ANA looks to be trying to take some of this extra traffic.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8216 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8849 times:

Quoting joeljack (Reply 15):
They are not metal neutral. You don't get United Million Miler Miles Flying on LH or NH etc. Loyal UA fliers stick to UA metal for this fact. If they are truly revenue sharing across the pacific and atlantic, UA needs to make the revenue sharing flights eligible for Million Miler Status Miles. Then I have no problem with ANA taking over any UA flights or vice versa.

It's not worth scheduling widebody airplanes for those few people.


User currently offlineEyeSky From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 307 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8704 times:
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Quoting SANFan (Reply 14):
Perhaps I missed it but do we have a start date for the NH service?



Service is set to begin on 07/25. They will start with a T73ER and change to an 87 later in the year.

Check out this link: http://www.portseattle.org/Newsroom/...s/Pages/default.aspx?year=2012#277


User currently offlineflySFO From United States of America, joined Apr 2011, 109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7113 times:

Any news on the SJC schedule?

User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 2887 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6839 times:

Quoting flySFO (Reply 19):
Any news on the SJC schedule?

Last I heard it will start February or March of 2013 when they get enough 787s. I'm not yet hearing that ANA will also start it earlier, using 777s or even 767s in the interim.


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3455 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 6304 times:

Quoting n7371f (Thread starter):

Can we expect UA to quietly pull the SEA route soon? You'll have (2) Star Alliance members basically flying wingtip-to-wingtip. Maybe it depends on UA's corporate contracts (Microsoft, Amazon, etc...). Just questioning the rationale of these many seats suddenly on SEA-NRT on Star Alliance.

I think it's almost inevitable that UA will discontinue operating its own metal on SEA-NRT. With NH starting with so much additional capacity, and the flight not fitting UA's model of operating international flights exclusively from hubs, I simply don't see the route sticking around with two daily flights. Service may continue throughout the summer, however, and be "rightsized" in the fall.

Jeremy


User currently offlineirelayer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 1073 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6214 times:

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 16):
Boeing and Microsoft are the two biggest white collar employers in Seattle and neither of them have exclusive contracts with airlines. They drive traffic, but both companies will choose best available fare through their internal travel agencies. The days of exclusive deals are over. I'd expecct DL to get more of the Boeing/Microsoft business anyway since neither company flies employees in First Class other than executives.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Boeing's defense business is up there and also whatever the Navy has, and I know they have an agreement to fly US airlines whenever possible and there is significant travel US-Japan (and onwards) for these guys.

-IR


User currently offlinesxf24 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1250 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5776 times:

Quoting irelayer (Reply 22):
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Boeing's defense business is up there and also whatever the Navy has, and I know they have an agreement to fly US airlines whenever possible and there is significant travel US-Japan (and onwards) for these guys.

Well, Boeing defense folks can fly Delta out of SEA. DL gets a much, much larger share of Boeing traffic than UA anyways.


User currently offlineYULWinterSkies From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2169 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5133 times:

Quoting Tdan (Reply 13):
It would make the most sense for NH to operate this route in a metal neutrality world since it is the only 777 flight of the day for UA out of SEA. There is likely a lot of cost that can be saved between the two airlines with NH on the route instead of UA. Additionally, UA can redeploy the 777 unit elsewhere in the system, possibly helping with the 762 retirements and 763 ghetto bird refurbishment.

Again, this only works in a metal neutral, revenue sharing environment. An airline would never drop a profitable route for an alliance partner to fly without getting a piece of the segment revenue.

I doubt this a/c is based in SEA. Rather, I'd wild guess that it triangles from one of the hubs (ORD? SFO? to NRT then SEA then NRT then back to the base hub over the course of a little more than 2 days.



When I doubt... go running!
25 wedgetail737 : The Boeing Defense is really not that big at Puget Sound compared to the Commercial side of the business. However for many of the Boeing Defense real
26 Stitch : I've heard it has been ORD-SEA-NRT-SEA-DEN-ORD as well as SEA-NRT-SEA.
27 Gunsontheroof : With NH being such a big Boeing customer, they're sure to pick up some of the SEA-Japan business traffic from BCA. As you said, defense isn't that bi
28 wedgetail737 : I was just browsing the ANA website and the new flights have not been loaded to the website yet. It still calls out the UA flights.
29 BoeingGuy : Actually my experience is that it doesn't matter. For one, "Boeing Travel" has been outsourced (which has likely cost Boeing far more money than it s
30 wedgetail737 : There is nothing says they can't be partners, but I'm sure DL would have something to say about that.
31 Post contains images commavia : I still think a JAL 787 would make sense in this market. It's a relatively small aircraft, with lower operating costs, and would give AA/JAL their be
32 Post contains images BoeingGuy : It would also require AS to have their first Star Alliance partner. Since AS is the code-share wh*re of aviation, I don't know of any rule preventing
33 AS739BSI : AS won't code share with *a given that DL has the NRT connection and they are entering USAir hubs such as PHL.
34 warreng24 : Amazing that the code-shares are being loaded... UA875 Dep 1309 Arr 1510 Dur 10h1m Equp 772 (UA Metal) NH7031 Dep 1309 Arr 1510 Dur 10h1m Equp 772 (UA
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