EricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1562 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 8847 times:
I still am of the opinion that the Chinese economy (although exploding in growth) is not yet at the point where it has high enough yields to support such long duration flights. I do not believe this is a DL issue, but one that all U.S. based carriers are experiencing.
I think an overwhelming proportion of US-China capacity will be provided by Chinese carriers due to their lower cost structure in the short to mid term. Longer term we may see yields rise to the point where Chinese routes become profitable for US based carriers.
LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 23474 posts, RR: 50 Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 8774 times:
With the expanded US-China bilateral there are unallocated frequencies available.
Delta could always get a few more if it asks, however this is likely a pragmatic move as it does not expect to make ATL-PVG work anytime soon.
Also Guangzhou has truly been scheduling yo-yo as it has come and gone more times than I can remember.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
EricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1562 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 8180 times:
Quoting Centre (Reply 7): Quoting EricR (Reply 4):
I think an overwhelming proportion of US-China capacity will be provided by Chinese carriers due to their lower cost structure in the short to mid term.
How about better service by Chinese carriers?
My opinion and my opinion only, but the rapid and successful expansion of ULCC's leads me to conclude that price matters significantly more than service to more and more people.
Also keep in mind that a vastly larger proportion of passengers to/from China are Chinese (paid in Chinese wages). Therefore, a lower priced option is more important than service.
FlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6292 posts, RR: 25 Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7928 times:
Quoting EricR (Reply 4): I do not believe this is a DL issue, but one that all U.S. based carriers are experiencing.
Agreed. On top of that, while China is a big country, the demand between the U.S. and China is still relatively small. It's certainly growing, but the airlines jumped a bit too quickly into China and flooded it with capacity.
LJ From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4327 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7789 times:
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 10): Agreed. On top of that, while China is a big country, the demand between the U.S. and China is still relatively small. It's certainly growing, but the airlines jumped a bit too quickly into China and flooded it with capacity.
Is there any reason why US - China traffic is so difficult compared to Europe - China? I would assume that the US would be able to absorb such capacity as it seems to be a larger market (in absolute numbers) than Europe. Or isn't there much trade between the US and China (at least compared to Europe?).
Roseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9159 posts, RR: 52 Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7763 times:
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 9):
Why doesn't DL use the slot to start SEA-PVG? That would give them a lot more connecting traffic from DL's own network and AS/QX.
Since they already operate SEA-PEK with the 767, I think SEA-PVG might be worth investigating. A 767 is a lot easier to fill than a 777. However, I'm not sure the 767 has enough range. Also the 767 is not a particularly desirable plane for that long of a flight since it is so much slower than a 777 or 747.
[Edited 2012-05-04 12:49:37]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
FlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6292 posts, RR: 25 Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7730 times:
Quoting LJ (Reply 13): Is there any reason why US - China traffic is so difficult compared to Europe - China?
There's certainly a lot of trade between the US and China, however there's far less leisure demand. Lots of American's go on vacation to Europe, however vastly fewer go to China on vacation. Even in the reverse direction, the U.S. welcomes more European tourists than Chinese. On top of this, China is a lot further from much of the U.S. population which lies on the East Coast of the U.S., further hurting demand and making it harder to make money...hence why ATL-PVG hasn't worked.
MillwallSean From Singapore, joined Apr 2008, 1172 posts, RR: 6 Reply 16, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7538 times:
Its not a big difference in total trade between the EU and US with China. The EU is just slighly larger overwall.
But if you look at details the US is exporting a fair bit less to China compared to the EU and US FDI is a fair bit less than EU FDI.
The EU is Chinas largest tradingpartner.
It handles a total of 17% of all trade with China (13.2% of Chinas imports and 20.1% of Chinas exports)
The US is Chinas second largest tradingpartner.
It handles a total of 13.6% of all trade with China (8.0% of Chinas imports and 18.3% of Chinas exports)
Those figures alnone should warrant plenty of traffic. Were talking about alot of money here. But there is plenty of airlines flying and US inbound and outbound tourism to China isnt at all as large as European tourism ties with China.
Chinese airlines seem to compete better on US routes compared to European routes for traffic too.
What we might ask ourselves is whats the connection between SE US and China?
DL does bring in feed from many parts of the US to its ATL hub but I dont think ATL is that well positioned for the US China connections either. Its natural O/D will lack VFR, tourism and to a large degree natural business connections with China. Its larger market surrounding market SE US also lacks VFR, tourism ties and natural business connections.
LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 23474 posts, RR: 50 Reply 17, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7490 times:
China and the US have huge trade links. Just look at all the freighters, ships going back and forth plus all consumer goods sold in America.
However all this trade has not necessarily meant as strong passenger air travel demand. For example in 2011 there was about 1.2mil US visitors to China., this compares with well over 6mil Europeans that visited China. Seems China is simply not as big of an interest for the average American as for European travelers.
Chinese outbound tourism to the US has been growing incredibly fast (up 36%in 2011), and more would love to visit, however the difficulty in obtaining visa’s complicates this. Chinese visitors however indeed tend to fly their own carriers, and while big spenders when the US and have become the new Japanese, they tend to chase after the lowest possible airfare which does not help the case for US airlines.
As far as comments about the quality of Chinese airlines, things are changing fast. I’ve had business dealing with Chinese carriers since the mid 1990s, and they have come a long way, especially as they take delivery of new aircraft with the latest cabins. Also having joined global alliances pushed improvements both in their networks, and service on the ground.
While admittedly most won’t look to Chinese airlines as models of service especially in a very upscale Asian market place, they are moving fast and will over time create growing headaches for US and other foreign carriers.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
A record number of Chinese visited the United States last year — nearly 1.1 million — and the country accounts for one of the top-growing tourist groups here, according to the Commerce Department. The number of visitors is expected to almost double by 2014, according to the U.S. Travel Association. Chinese visitors spend about $6,000 each on every visit here, versus the $4,000 that visitors from other countries spend on average, the association says, and their top activity is shopping.
Just a few months ago, for example, the wait for a Chinese tourist to the United States was about 180 days; now it is less than a week.