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2012 Is Boeing's Come Back Year  
User currently offlineSASMD82 From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 798 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 12474 times:

Hi all,

First of all - odd it seems - this is not to start a new A vs B thread.

Now the new UA 737 order is about to be placed, Boeing hits the 500 orders mark for 2012 whereas Airbus only managed to get 100 orders (mostly for their A320s). Source: wiki. Boeing has gained some wide body orders too.

Airbus outsold Boeing 10 times the last 13 years (before Airbus was a pretty small plane manufacturer). From 1999 Airbus has delivered more planes each year than Boeing.

Boeing has finally managed to deliver the 787 tot their customers, the 737 MAX (updating an existing model again) seems to be a great success and the 777 (read: 77W) keeps selling. The sales boom of the A330 seems to be ahead of us, the A340 is out of production - like the A300. The A380 is - like the 748 - too much a niche product. What's left with Airbus is the A320.

In my opinion, Airbus should do their utmost to make the A350 a success, or else Boeing will surpass Airbus as the biggest plane maker soon. Do you think that 2012 is thus Boeing's come back year or is it just strategic mismanagement by Airbus that explains the sales decline so far.

Thanks for your comments.

29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinejet-lagged From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 877 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 12407 times:

These things take years to cycle, so you can't compress a comeback into one year. That being said, it does seem Boeing has a good chance to out deliver the other guy this year in terms of frames.

I would really like to know how the two manufacturers compare in terms of total seats delivered for the past ten years. Or tons of aircraft. That might be a leading indicator of frame count.


User currently offlinelhrnue From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2010, 187 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 12278 times:

Don't you have a Come Back after being out of business for period of time? Which for sure is not the case for Boeing also Airbus have sold more aircraft's.
But yes, apparently there is such a big order backlog of current 737 operators for new 737's currently, that 2012 seems to be an easy win for Boeing.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12181 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 12191 times:

Helping Boeing this year seems to be big Boeing customers coming to order new planes for replacement or growth. The upcoming SA)">UA order, and SA)">DL's (expected) big order within the next 2-3 years is a big help to Boeing. PR is looking to begin replacing many of their current airliners with new Boeings. The same can be said for SA, who is a loss for Airbus and a gain for Boeing, apparently.

Of course the ETS dispute between China and the EU is also in play here, but that, IMHO, can still go either way.

US is a firm Airbus customer, but they don't have a big need right now to place a big order.

None of this means John Leahy is sitting on his hands watching the world go by. I am sure he is still out there pitching his sales routine. But the A-350 program has hit the pre-certification plateu, like most airplane programs do. Once A-350s start showing up carrying airline passengers, it will get going again. The same happened with the A-380, B-787, and B-747-8 programs. But the B-787 seems to be out of the phase now, and orders are again starting to come in. With deliveries beginning for the B-747-8I, maybe orders for it will resume again soon.


User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 741 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 12129 times:

A post like this serves no purpose except as a fuse to a A vs B war (despite the author stating otherwise) IMHO.
Firstly, what Airbus has now on their 2012 order book is not what they managed to sell in the first four and a bit months of 2012. We all know what Airbus likes to horde orders for airshows.
Secondly, it is not surprising that 737MAX is selling very well. It is a fantastic series and Airbus simply can't satisfy the NB demand. It is just parity or near parity restoration. So yes 2012 is likely to be the year of Boeing, but that doesn't mean it is attibutable to some kind of strategic triumph by Boeing or "mismanagement" by Airbus
Thirdly, A350 is entering a critical phase and airlines have been twice bitten by A380 and 787. They are going to be more cautious over ordering an all-new aircraft. A380 will probably sell another 30 this year, and for airlines that needs regional/medium haul WB now, A330 remains very competitive.
Fourthly, Airbus and Boeing are in different phases of their core twin WB production. There is no point in looking at 2012 in isolation. I think long term picture for both companies are bright.

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
n my opinion, Airbus should do their utmost to make the A350 a success, or else Boeing will surpass Airbus as the biggest plane maker soon.

There is no evidence to suggest that Airbus is not putting in the effort to make A350 a success. In fact, with 500+ orders, one can argue it is already a success.

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
or is it just strategic mismanagement by Airbus that explains the sales decline so far.

what "strategic mismanagement" are you referring to?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 11936 times:
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Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
Do you think that 2012 is thus Boeing's come back year or is it just strategic mismanagement by Airbus that explains the sales decline so far.

As jet-lagged noted, it's just cyclic. Airbus had an absolutely blow-out year last year with over 1400 sales, driven largely by the launch of the A320neo. So with such an order burst the previous year, they will naturally have less customers the following.

And now Boeing has the "in demand" narrowbody this year, so it is looking to also see a huge initial order boom.

I still expect Airbus to out deliver Boeing.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6999 posts, RR: 63
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 11820 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
I still expect Airbus to out deliver Boeing.

Though not, surely, in widebodies. Boeing should establish a lead there that they'll maintain for several years.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 11781 times:
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Quoting PM (Reply 6):
Though not, surely, in widebodies. Boeing should establish a lead there that they'll maintain for several years.

Indeed. Between having four active families and production rate increases underway on all of them, Boeing should comfortably hold that lead for awhile and may even allow them to take the overall delivery lead for 2013 or 2014.


User currently offlinecmf From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 11405 times:

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
or else Boeing will surpass Airbus as the biggest plane maker soon

The title biggest doesn't pay bills and thus is completely unimportant.

The number of orders in a single year isn't an indication if things are good or bad. Number of filled production slots is a better indication.

Boeing is in an upswing as 787 and 747 are being delivered and this typically is followed by a new wave of orders. The large 787 backlog will probably delay it though. They also have a lot of MAX commitments to convert.

Airbus is more in a delivery stage at this time. Last years NEO orders filled up most slots. The A350 is at the wait and see period and has a large backlog.

Sales has been too good for the available production slots. When Boeing introduced 737NG they stated they wanted a less than one year backlog, think it was 6 months. Compare that to current backlogs and you see how far ahead sales is.

Seems to me both OEMs are doing well in their stage of the cycle. Their focus should be on promised deliveries and in the case of Airbus the A350 development and production and for both on the NB upgrades.


User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3509 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 11330 times:

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
Airbus outsold Boeing 10 times the last 13 years (before Airbus was a pretty small plane manufacturer). From 1999 Airbus has delivered more planes each year than Boeing.

This really doesn't amount to much more than a total pissing match. Both manufacturers have fared well/poorly at roughly the same time regardless of who came out "on top" in orders for any given year. I honestly don't think either company cares all that much about bragging rights as long as they're making money...as others have said, the industry is cyclical and total deliveries will fluctuate as one programs mature/enter production/wind down.

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 4):
A post like this serves no purpose except as a fuse to a A vs B war (despite the author stating otherwise) IMHO.

  

I find this to be true of just about every thread that includes that dreaded qualifier...



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 10929 times:
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Threads only become "Airbus vs. Boeing" when the partisans deliberately and with forethought chose to post in such a way that makes them so.

If calmer heads prevail, a thread can be discussed on facts and informed opinion and stay within the rules of etiquette and this forum.


User currently offlineturn720 From United States of America, joined May 2012, 45 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 10165 times:
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The title "biggest" earns you bragging rights but unfortunately it doesn't pay the bills. Now if they made loads of money from all the airplanes they sold then that would be really something to crow about.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9276 times:
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Quoting turn720 (Reply 11):
The title "biggest" earns you bragging rights but unfortunately it doesn't pay the bills. Now if they made loads of money from all the airplanes they sold then that would be really something to crow about.

Well Boeing is doing quite well in second place and Airbus seems to be making enough money from being #1 to both afford new aircraft programs and update existing ones.


User currently offlineghifty From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 891 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9070 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
I still expect Airbus to out deliver Boeing.

Out deliver or out order? The latter is undoubtedly Airbuses will do in 2012. They have a higher production rate, IIRC. Now, out order... it may just very well end up being Boeing. The 737 MAX seems to be taking off with the now very-possible UA order. The design isn't even finalized yet.. if the 777NG gets announced, we can probably expect a lot more orders to come in. Airbus, on the other hand, has nothing to announce. A380-900? A380F? A330NG?

Quoting turn720 (Reply 11):
The title "biggest" earns you bragging rights but unfortunately it doesn't pay the bills. Now if they made loads of money from all the airplanes they sold then that would be really something to crow about.

David and Goliath.. bigger isn't always better.

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
In my opinion, Airbus should do their utmost to make the A350 a success, or else Boeing will surpass Airbus as the biggest plane maker soon.

What do you mean "make the A350 a sucess"? It already has over 500 firm orders. That's great for a wide-body that has yet to fly. Are you expecting 1,400? Not even the Dreamliner got/has that many. Most wide-bodies get the bulk of their production orders *after* EIS. Look at the 777 and A330.

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
Now the new UA 737 order is about to be placed

The Boeing fanboy inside me is squeeing at the though of this... but "about to be placed"?! I thought Airbus merely dropped out.

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
Airbus only managed to get 100 orders (mostly for their A320s).

After a great year in 2011.. with 1,400 orders.. product launch years are, IMO, kinda pointless to look at in terms of how well a company is doing. Of course whenever a company announces something new the customers are going to pile-on (this applies to both A and B). What determine's a products long-term success are the residual sales. Once the 737 MAX, A320 NEO, 787, and A350 are all flying in the same skies.. THEN you can figure out who's faring better.

RIght now we're in a strange "layer cake" era with all these new product launches. Airlines will just take what's on top. Once things quell it'll be more like a marble cake..



Fly Delta Jets
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7959 posts, RR: 19
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 8856 times:

Honestly, I think last year 2011 was Boeing's "comeback" year...in all honesty, they never really left. They've continued to rise, while in constant fighting with Airbus the entire time.

Last year, the 787 and 748 were certified, delivered, and entered into service, all those orders for DL and other various airlines were announced, the 1000th 777 was built, etc.

This year, the Boeing employees and execs can rest easy knowing it's going to be a smooth year for them.



Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12181 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7871 times:

Quoting turn720 (Reply 11):
The title "biggest" earns you bragging rights but unfortunately it doesn't pay the bills. Now if they made loads of money from all the airplanes they sold then that would be really something to crow about.

Actually, I believe Boeing consistantly makes more money than Airbus, but Airbus sells more airplanes. Boeing sells more WB, where the profit margins are greater. Airbus generally sells more NBs, so delivers more airplanes.

Boeing has more WB families (4) compaired to Airbus 2, with one more in development.

Both OEMs are improving most of their NB families, leaving out the A-318 and B-736 (does Boeing even offer the -600 any more?).


User currently offlineBoeing773ER From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 441 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7631 times:

Quoting SASMD82 (Thread starter):
In my opinion, Airbus should do their utmost to make the A350 a success, or else Boeing will surpass Airbus as the biggest plane maker soon

I don't think that the A350 will make or break Airbus and let Boeing take market share.

I think the A350 is big, but I think airlines are scared to order a whole new fleet type without finding how the plane preforms. I think once Airbus starts to deliver the first few A350s you will start to see the orders for the plane start to pickup. But until then they will need to stick with the current operators and hope to see top-ups for them.

I feel like Airbus needs to focus on the A320 program to really nail in current customers such as UA and convince them that the NEO is much better than the MAX. Also, the A380 program needs to pick up with more customers.

Sorry, I didn't mean to hijack the thread but I just felt like that needed to be said.



Work Hard, Fly Right.
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6999 posts, RR: 63
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 6767 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 15):
Boeing sells more WB, where the profit margins are greater.

Delivering planes rather than selling them is where you make money. You might be surprised to learn that over the past five years (2007-2011), Airbus have delivered as many widebodies as Boeing. In fact, they have delivered a handful more. Airbus: 501; Boeing: 496.


User currently offlinejustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1065 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 5914 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
Delivering planes rather than selling them is where you make money. You might be surprised to learn that over the past five years (2007-2011), Airbus have delivered as many widebodies as Boeing. In fact, they have delivered a handful more. Airbus: 501; Boeing: 496

I think the best measure is seats sold, which really accounts for everything. A 380 counts more than a 777 which counts more than a 330 which counts more than a NB.

This is a measure of capacity sold and to me would be the best measure of who is the biggest AC manufacturer. An A380 and a B767 are very different widebodies!

r/

Ivan


User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 736 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5164 times:

I suspect that at least for narrowbodies, it would be easy to predict upcoming sales by looking at what future production capacity remains to be sold by the two manufacturers. When one manufacturer has had a great sales year and they are nearing capacity for the many years to come, naturally the customers will flock to the other manufacturer. Similarly, availability of suitable models varies. Airbus sold many NEOs last year, Boeing did not have the MAX yet. This year Boeing will naturally sell many MAXes.

In other words, while the A.net world seems to think about aircraft in terms of very specific fuel consumption numbers and other technical aspects, real-world business decisions often get made on other things, like price, availability under constrained resource situations, and so on. One year is too short to measure real differences between competing manufacturers. The deciding factors for the narrowbody race, for instance, will be if one company actually manages to create a truly superior product that customers simply will prefer (driving demand) and if they succeed in growing capacity (driving availability). Lets discuss all this again in 2015 or 2016, then we get a better picture of what happened 


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1308 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4960 times:

With high demand for NB planes the keyword is availability, While I do believe that the NEO is slighty better than the MAX UA cannot wait that long. Both manufacturers make great, reliable aircraft and after the NEO boom last year logically Boeing has the edge now.
For the WB's the coin is flipping all the time as well. Boeing used to be alone in the ULH business, now Airbus took the dominance with a 40 year younger A380design. Airbus used to rule in the A330 segment, now Boeing takes the major orders with the 20 year younger 787. Boeing rules with the 777 and Airbus responds with the 350. This will go on-and-on and forces the OEM's to design better airplanes all the time. That is the beauty of competition!



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3028 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4580 times:

Typical cycles. The NEO is going to struggle for some orders purely because of its huge success early, just as the 787 had a huge urst and has slowed to a crawl since. The MAX and the A350 both came along at a later point but have had more success since in gaining orders.

The truth is though that some airlines have a natural preference for one manufacturer over the other, and it all depends on the cycles of their orders for when a boost comes to along for one or the other.

A is losing out at UA mainly because of the CO influence, not that the MAX is considered a better plane per say, but it meets their natural sales preference, and delivery timeframes may also have helped.


User currently offlineBLIKSEM From South Africa, joined Jan 2008, 27 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4214 times:
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Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 21):

I agree that is cyclical. Boeing has been around a long time, however they have never had to contend with the likes of Airbus who has the support and financial muscle of the European Union. I am sure that by now the have learned enough to re-establish themselves as the best and most successful airframers.


User currently offlineghifty From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 891 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 3962 times:

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 20):
While I do believe that the NEO is slighty better than the MAX UA cannot wait that long.

Well, currently, the MAX will be 2% less efficient than the MAX per Boeing's stated performance goals. I don't think that's a deal-breaker especially when considering the CO influence and the fact that currently the UA fleet consists 238 737s (with another 65 on order) and "only" 150 A320 (with 0 on order).



Fly Delta Jets
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3424 times:

Net orders from 2002, including 2012 stands as such

Airbus: 7281
Boeing: 6775

Deliveries from 2002 NOT including 2012 (I don't have Airbus' data for April yet

Airbus: 4603
Boeing: 3871

Way to early to say if Boeing is the largest manufacturer again by just looking at the first 4 months of 2012.
I don't know why Airbus has had a "slow" start regarding deliveries this year, but they aim at 570 units at year end.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ord-570-deliveries-in-2012-366993/

That's' some 47 average per month. So far Airbus has only manages some 43 per month so they really need to steam up.
Maybe there are some people here with inside info of why things seems a little slow?

I don't remember Boeing's forecasts. It's maybe a little less I think.

About orders for 2012 Mr Leahy has stated that he expects Boeing to win the race, but lets at least wait until Farnborough (July) before we conclude anything.


25 Daysleeper : Historically that was perhaps true, but considering the average sales price for the 788 was less than $80 million Boeing are going to be selling wide
26 cmf : Which of course is what it takes when you go up against some with the support of the US government.
27 par13del : I think this is of value to the OEM only, means nothing to the players in the industry. Example, the A380 has no clients in the USA, until last year
28 KAL7478 : Yes it is Boeing's come back year, and good luck to both A and B because this rivalry produces better planes.....
29 Post contains images PM : You "come back" when you've been down and out. Boeing have been "down and out"? Yeah, right... We are in a duopoly and, unless China or Brazil or ...
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