ltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 12329 posts, RR: 12 Reply 2, posted (1 year 2 weeks ago) and read 10522 times:
I would think they would want to base any Hawaii flights to only 2 mainland airports, especially where they have a significant amounts of feeder flights but not in direct competition with other airliners and to narrow the perhaps specialized fleet and mx they would need to do Hawaii flights. LAX and SFO might be a problem but more likely OAK, PHX, SEA.
No matter what, if WN can commit to at least 6 and better 8 RT's a day from the mainline to Hawaii, they could be a player, drive down fares and help the tourism industry there. I also suspect they would be popular with military personal and families based in HI.
EricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1447 posts, RR: 1 Reply 6, posted (1 year 2 weeks ago) and read 10400 times:
Quoting BD338 (Reply 5): I'll ask the question the other way around...which Hawaiian destinations are WN most likely to serve? I guess HNL is a no-brainer but how about LIH, KOA etc? I hope PHX is a base on the mainland.
HNL & OGG. Considering WN's preference for frequency, I would consider KOA and especially LIH long shots.
CALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2201 posts, RR: 8 Reply 9, posted (1 year 2 weeks ago) and read 10309 times:
Another question would be if WN would change their policy about red eyes.
Red eye eastbounds are a very viable option for Hawaii service and allows more utilization. If you do frequency, you probably do redeyes.
WN has standards for new airports that require minimum frequencies. One would expect HNL and OGG service to several West Coast airports. KOA and LIH would be long shots at this point and I don't see WN doing a couple of interisland roundtrips. With their fares, you not expect tag on help would be needed and not worth the expense of the tagon.
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10649 posts, RR: 100 Reply 10, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10197 times:
WN will have to set up a station in Hawaii per there union rules. So when they enter, it will have to enter on a fairly large scale (10X fligths per day). So the question, do they only start or or two stations or go big?
Quoting EricR (Reply 4): OAK, LAS, LAX. I would be surprised to see either SEA or PDX.
Due to the need to go 'big,' I would expect every West Coast airport with WN service to be a viable candidate.
That would be... ironic. However, I expect more of LAX-HNL-OGG-HNL-LAX types of service with a complimentary service that could be OAK-OGG-HNL-OGG-OAK. One leg would be eliminated with enough frequency.
Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9): One would expect HNL and OGG service to several West Coast airports. KOA and LIH would be long shots at this point and I don't see WN doing a couple of interisland roundtrips.
The red eye thing is actually more of a practice than a policy. The Flight Attendants have had language in our contract to deal with red eye flights fOr years. Also, to this point, we just negotiated a tentative agreement for language in our contract governing near international and over water flying. One of the example pairings the union uses to explain a duty rig shows a scheduled red eye. I think it's from the islands to the mainland. While its only an example, it may be a sign of things to come.
wnflyguy From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2011, 364 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9691 times:
I think you will first see service only to HNL Hawaii from PHX,LAX,LAS,OAK and SAN with late afternoon westbound service.
Then a bank of eastbound redeye service to the mainland. I think you will see lines like BWI-LAX-HNL-redeye-LAX-BWI,
MDW-LAS-HNL-redeye-LAS-MDW, ATL-PHX-HNL-redeye-PHX-ATL, DAL-HOU-SAN-HNL-redeye-SAN-HOU-DAL and
This way 5 800's will not be tied up on just Hawaii. I do see LAX with at least 5 HNL summer time non-stops a day and PHX and LAS with 2 a day.
If the overwater and near international side letter passes with the flight attn group at the end of May I think you will see first ever Redeye flights starting in Nov 2012 along with SJU service then Hawaii spring 2013..
Along with the radical FL flight chances rumored to becoming in NOV the June schedule release should be a good one.
Arm chair network planners and ceo's feed back welcomed... wnfg
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines.
slcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2452 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 9265 times:
I bet the Hawaiian gateways are lax and oak. Also service to SAN, sfo, sac, sna, las. I bet we see sna happen even if united has not had amazing daily results southwest does pretty good at orange county
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10649 posts, RR: 100 Reply 19, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8790 times:
Quoting swafa (Reply 11): If I'm not mistaken, any new city served by WN with fewer than a certain number of flights per day (don't know what that number is, somebody help me out) can be staffed with contract employees.
The text of interest:"Should the Company have a need to contract with third parties for the
performance of covered work at stations where flight activity does not exceed 12
departures per day, the Company shall be entitled to do so. The Company shall
notify the Union of:
a. The nature of the contract; and
b. The anticipated length of time the third party work shall be required.
This provision shall not apply to stations in operation as of date of ratification
(March 27, 2009).",
So it does look like a small amount of contract work is allowed, but the union can contest and have it union work. (That is how I interpret the clause on pg. 6 of the referenced pdf.)
Quoting atrude777 (Reply 18): To answer...I think so? ATA used the 738 but I can't say for sure if it was on 738 or the 757's.
LAS to HNL/OGG will have a little more payload restriction than LAX-HNL/OGG. We're talking just a few seats (2 to 4). It should not significantly effect the business case of the flight. But the 738 from LAX is already pushed. This is one area where small improvements to the 738 will pay off big.
LAS-HNL/OGG will be a perfect route for the 738MAX.
Nutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 319 posts, RR: 6 Reply 20, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8673 times:
I doubt you will see an NG on PHX or LAS to Hawaii, the MAX will be a candidate for these. I know that even the 757 on the super hot days takes a restricion out of PHX so I would be surprised to see the 737 on this run before WN takes delivery of the MAX.
US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
wnflyguy From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2011, 364 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8678 times:
SNA will never see HNL service due to weight limits.
RNO is also to small of a market to suport Hawaii service at the level WN needs.
Yes the 800's has the legs for PHX and LAS . ATA used the 800's all the time when the 757's were being used for charters.
I see WN by mid year 2013 running only about 10 HNL flts a day and 5 OGG flts.
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines.
TWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 753 posts, RR: 1 Reply 23, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8152 times:
Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 21):
SNA will never see HNL service due to weight limits.
Say that to Aloha and United...
I wouldn't be surprised to see SNA near the top of the list. It is a great alternative to LAX, more convenient for people living in the Irvine-Anaheim-Newport Beach area, and the flight times are perfect for connections and O&D (granted they do do redeyes). I don't think a weight restriction would hurt WN as bad as it would UA because a WN 73G would have a lower percentage of seats lost than a UA 73G. Do I think it'll be number 1? No, LAX is a better station to prospect any Hawaii service IMO. Do I think it's in the top 5? Definitely.
There's nothing like the smell of Jet-A in the morning. It smells like... VICTORY!!!
chrisair From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1769 posts, RR: 4 Reply 24, posted (1 year 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 7537 times:
Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 23): I wouldn't be surprised to see SNA near the top of the list.
I wouldn't be surprised either. But do you think WN wants to spend the money on a sub fleet of 73Gs that are ETOPS certified? Would they want to have a fleet of 5 or so planes that are only for one or two routes (i.e. BUR-Hawaii-SNA-Hawaii-BUR)?
25 RayChuang: I really wonder would WN considering flying to Hawai'i? Remember, we already have HA and UA flying there, and revenue is going to be quite low given t
26 EA CO AS: Neither of which used 738s on the route; 73Gs were used, and they have no weight penalty on SNA-HNL whereas a 738 does, rendering the flight unprofit
27 wnflyguy: Aloha and now with United even have weight restrictions on every flight from SNA to Hawaii. United unlike Aloha blocks 20 seats on SNA-HNL flights 20m
28 Barney Captain: Filling in for a chartered 757 and trying to schedule year round service are two completely different concepts. The -800 will likely never be schedul
29 jporterfi: I think they will probably go with LAX and OAK (or maybe SJC instead?) on the mainland side and HNL and OGG on the Hawaii side. I think those are the
30 EA CO AS: LAX and OAK are no-brainers, and I can potentially see ONT as well, possibly SAN. Beyond that, I don't know that I can see any other viable West Coast
31 atrude777: Yes, WN is considering it and has every intention of starting Hawaii as soon as they can. They didn't get the -800 to hop around the US from MDW-STL,
32 COA735: What about PDX? Don't they have a sizable presence there?
33 TWA772LR: I think RayChuang meant the Big Island.
34 flyer737sw: Considering we need to have mechanics for ETOPS flights, OAK, LAS, PHX, and LAX will be among the first to serve Hawaii, along with SJC and SAN at a l
35 HiFlyerAS: AS already looked at service from SNA-HNL It wasn't practical on the -800 due to weight restrictions because of the runway length. Outfitting a small
36 msp747: I think SEA is a no go based on costs. WN tried to move its flights to Boeing Field because of the high costs of operating out of SEA. Why would they
37 laca773: Is LAX a "no brainer" because the 73Hs won't take a weight penalty? There's a lot of traffic from LAX already. If it does happen, I hope it brings do
38 lightsaber: Even with the latest CFM-56 'evolution?' I suspect there is the possibility of a well timed (morning) flight. It is a question of when, not if. Light
39 Barney Captain: I question whether or not you will see us doing LAX - Hawaii at all. As you correctly state, that market is completely saturated by every major carri
40 HiFlyerAS: AS is not happy that they don't serve Hawaii from the LA Basin. It's the big hole in the route map...but like Barney said, there's already a huge amo
41 usflyguy: No such rules to force a large station. CRP has 3 flights a day some days. SJD is being opened with 1 SNA flight/day. MEX is being opened with 2 flig
42 Barney Captain: Agreed. This may be what swings the pendulum in favor of doing it.
43 lightsaber: In 2011 CFM launched a reduced fuel burn CFM-56, much of which (I found out this week) is nacelle changes. http://www.flightglobal.com/director...fac
44 StuckInCA: That seems unimaginable to me. There is already a ton of Hawaii service from SEA with AS and Hawaiian. Why would anyone choose WN over those (on this
45 AADC10: I doubt they would operate out of SNA. The slots might be better used elsewhere and it would be difficult for a 737 to get off the short runway and g
46 777STL: I don't see either being worth WN's time. From an economies of scale perspective, it's not going to be worth it for WN to set up a station for a coup
47 EA CO AS: LAX is a slam-dunk. Even though there's stiff competition, WN can compete against every carrier in the LAX-HNL or LAX-OGG market with three major adv
48 FlyASAGuy2005: LAX-HNL has been around forever. There is plenty of competition. I'm not sure how much more "stimulating" WN can induce. With the so called Southwest
49 QANTAS747-438: Yes, there is stiff competition, but if you look at it strictly from a loads point of view, ALL the flights on UA, AA, DL are FULL. They are packed y
50 EA CO AS: Absolutely. Except it's not that WN would lower fares which would stimulate new demand, but rather the public's perception that they'd lower fares th
51 RWA380: That's not going to happen with WN now, and the cost of jet fuel. I think some of your cities are correct. I think OAK is a no brainer, WN may be abl
52 RWA380: Don't forget DL on this route as well. daily 753's IIRC. WN has publicly stated they will be concentrating ETOPS certification for the 800's only, an
53 SANFan: Lots of people talking about the "givens" and "slam dunks" here. Just thought I'd put things in perspective by noting who's listed in WN's own Top Ten
54 gizmonc: Five hours flying time from all of those cities is a long flight to me. But I presume the WIFI will be working on all those flights so if you have a t
55 FlyASAGuy2005: I most certainly agree with you EA. My thing is that I question the amount of demand actually left to stimulate.
56 usflyguy: Yes, all -800's are coming online with wifi and it's satellite based so it should work over the pacific. WN already has quite a few 5+ hour flights,