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WN Route Speculation To And From Hawaii  
User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11401 times:

Since WN just received the 738 let's speculate on what kind of routes WN could run to Hawaii. I know the we won't see any flights this year but Gary stated next year,

89 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineerj170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6771 posts, RR: 17
Reply 1, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11374 times:

I suspect the following: SEA, PDX, OAK, SJC, SAN, LAX, LAS, SFO, SAcramento, maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast.. But that's just my opinion...


Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13113 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11315 times:

I would think they would want to base any Hawaii flights to only 2 mainland airports, especially where they have a significant amounts of feeder flights but not in direct competition with other airliners and to narrow the perhaps specialized fleet and mx they would need to do Hawaii flights. LAX and SFO might be a problem but more likely OAK, PHX, SEA.

No matter what, if WN can commit to at least 6 and better 8 RT's a day from the mainline to Hawaii, they could be a player, drive down fares and help the tourism industry there. I also suspect they would be popular with military personal and families based in HI.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16865 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11274 times:

I think OAK and LAX will be their main gateways to Hawaii.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11273 times:

OAK, LAS, LAX. I would be surprised to see either SEA or PDX.

I think the key is which cities could support more than 1 daily flight via O&D and / or connections.

[Edited 2012-05-06 09:23:43]

User currently offlineBD338 From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 707 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11255 times:

I'll ask the question the other way around...which Hawaiian destinations are WN most likely to serve? I guess HNL is a no-brainer but how about LIH, KOA etc? I hope PHX is a base on the mainland.

User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 11193 times:

Quoting BD338 (Reply 5):
I'll ask the question the other way around...which Hawaiian destinations are WN most likely to serve? I guess HNL is a no-brainer but how about LIH, KOA etc? I hope PHX is a base on the mainland.

HNL & OGG. Considering WN's preference for frequency, I would consider KOA and especially LIH long shots.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16865 posts, RR: 51
Reply 7, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 11179 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 6):
HNL & OGG. Considering WN's preference for frequency, I would consider KOA and especially LIH long shots.

Is it possible WN does some kind of inter-island flying;

OAK-HNL-Kona-HNL-OAK

LAX-HNL-LIH-HNL-LAX



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 11161 times:

It would be perfect if WN kept some 717 to be based there

User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2631 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 11102 times:

Another question would be if WN would change their policy about red eyes.
Red eye eastbounds are a very viable option for Hawaii service and allows more utilization. If you do frequency, you probably do redeyes.

WN has standards for new airports that require minimum frequencies. One would expect HNL and OGG service to several West Coast airports. KOA and LIH would be long shots at this point and I don't see WN doing a couple of interisland roundtrips. With their fares, you not expect tag on help would be needed and not worth the expense of the tagon.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13109 posts, RR: 100
Reply 10, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 10990 times:
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WN will have to set up a station in Hawaii per there union rules. So when they enter, it will have to enter on a fairly large scale (10X fligths per day). So the question, do they only start or or two stations or go big?

Quoting EricR (Reply 4):
OAK, LAS, LAX. I would be surprised to see either SEA or PDX.

Due to the need to go 'big,' I would expect every West Coast airport with WN service to be a viable candidate.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 8):
It would be perfect if WN kept some 717 to be based there

That would be... ironic. However, I expect more of LAX-HNL-OGG-HNL-LAX types of service with a complimentary service that could be OAK-OGG-HNL-OGG-OAK. One leg would be eliminated with enough frequency.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):
One would expect HNL and OGG service to several West Coast airports. KOA and LIH would be long shots at this point and I don't see WN doing a couple of interisland roundtrips.

I agree. HNL and OGG will probably be it.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineswafa From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 10750 times:

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):

The red eye thing is actually more of a practice than a policy. The Flight Attendants have had language in our contract to deal with red eye flights fOr years. Also, to this point, we just negotiated a tentative agreement for language in our contract governing near international and over water flying. One of the example pairings the union uses to explain a duty rig shows a scheduled red eye. I think it's from the islands to the mainland. While its only an example, it may be a sign of things to come.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):

If I'm not mistaken, any new city served by WN with fewer than a certain number of flights per day (don't know what that number is, somebody help me out) can be staffed with contract employees.


User currently offlineBlueman87 From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 535 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 10511 times:

Quoting erj170 (Reply 1):
maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast.. But that's just my opinion...

RNO sounds quite far unless you mean a quick stop at LAX first



B6 T5 JFK DL T2/3 JFK
User currently offlinewnflyguy From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2011, 545 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 10484 times:

I think you will first see service only to HNL Hawaii from PHX,LAX,LAS,OAK and SAN with late afternoon westbound service.
Then a bank of eastbound redeye service to the mainland. I think you will see lines like BWI-LAX-HNL-redeye-LAX-BWI,
MDW-LAS-HNL-redeye-LAS-MDW, ATL-PHX-HNL-redeye-PHX-ATL, DAL-HOU-SAN-HNL-redeye-SAN-HOU-DAL and
LGA-DEN-OAK-HNL-redeye-OAK-DEN-LGA.
This way 5 800's will not be tied up on just Hawaii. I do see LAX with at least 5 HNL summer time non-stops a day and PHX and LAS with 2 a day.
If the overwater and near international side letter passes with the flight attn group at the end of May I think you will see first ever Redeye flights starting in Nov 2012 along with SJU service then Hawaii spring 2013..
Along with the radical FL flight chances rumored to becoming in NOV the June schedule release should be a good one.
Arm chair network planners and ceo's feed back welcomed...  wnfg



my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
User currently offlinereality From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 490 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 10261 times:

Quoting Blueman87 (Reply 12):

Quoting erj170 (Reply 1):
maybe RNO.. Basically most of the west coast.. But that's just my opinion...

RNO sounds quite far unless you mean a quick stop at LAX first

Reno, being further West than Los Angeles, is only 18 miles further from HNL than LAX.....according to Great Circle.

2574 miles vs. 2556 miles. OAK is 2409 miles from HNL.


User currently offlineairplaneboy From United States of America, joined May 2004, 561 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10111 times:

Do the -800s have the range for westbound Hawaii flying from LAS and PHX?

User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3455 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10058 times:

I bet the Hawaiian gateways are lax and oak. Also service to SAN, sfo, sac, sna, las. I bet we see sna happen even if united has not had amazing daily results southwest does pretty good at orange county

User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 17, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9879 times:

Quoting airplaneboy (Reply 15):
Do the -800s have the range for westbound Hawaii flying from LAS and PHX?

LAS-LAX, a route a travel on pretty often is only about 40 minutes from take-off to touch-down. It won't be a problem.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineatrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5692 posts, RR: 52
Reply 18, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 9661 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 17):

LAS-LAX, a route a travel on pretty often is only about 40 minutes from take-off to touch-down. It won't be a problem.

Did you misread his question?  

He wasn't asking about LAS-LAX, only LAS/PHX-Hawaii on the 738.

To answer...I think so? ATA used the 738 but I can't say for sure if it was on 738 or the 757's.

Alex



Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13109 posts, RR: 100
Reply 19, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 9583 times:
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Quoting swafa (Reply 11):
If I'm not mistaken, any new city served by WN with fewer than a certain number of flights per day (don't know what that number is, somebody help me out) can be staffed with contract employees.

I looks like you are correct! The latest I could find was the 2009 contract.
http://twu555.org/portals/12/PDFfiles/2008-201120CBA.pdf

The text of interest:"Should the Company have a need to contract with third parties for the
performance of covered work at stations where flight activity does not exceed 12
departures per day, the Company shall be entitled to do so. The Company shall
notify the Union of:
a. The nature of the contract; and
b. The anticipated length of time the third party work shall be required.
This provision shall not apply to stations in operation as of date of ratification
(March 27, 2009).",


So it does look like a small amount of contract work is allowed, but the union can contest and have it union work. (That is how I interpret the clause on pg. 6 of the referenced pdf.)

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 18):
To answer...I think so? ATA used the 738 but I can't say for sure if it was on 738 or the 757's.

LAS to HNL/OGG will have a little more payload restriction than LAX-HNL/OGG. We're talking just a few seats (2 to 4). It should not significantly effect the business case of the flight. But the 738 from LAX is already pushed. This is one area where small improvements to the 738 will pay off big.

LAS-HNL/OGG will be a perfect route for the 738MAX.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineNutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 496 posts, RR: 8
Reply 20, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 9466 times:

I doubt you will see an NG on PHX or LAS to Hawaii, the MAX will be a candidate for these. I know that even the 757 on the super hot days takes a restricion out of PHX so I would be surprised to see the 737 on this run before WN takes delivery of the MAX.


American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
User currently offlinewnflyguy From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2011, 545 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 9471 times:

SNA will never see HNL service due to weight limits.
RNO is also to small of a market to suport Hawaii service at the level WN needs.
Yes the 800's has the legs for PHX and LAS . ATA used the 800's all the time when the 757's were being used for charters.
I see WN by mid year 2013 running only about 10 HNL flts a day and 5 OGG flts.
Enjoy wnfg 



my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
User currently offlineFlyASAguy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 9404 times:

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 18):
He wasn't asking about LAS-LAX, only LAS/PHX-Hawaii on the 738.

I understood the question fully. I was simply implying that a 30 minute air-time sector (LAS-LAX) wouldn't affect the flight that much considering -800s operate out of LAX-HNL.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 2035 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 8945 times:

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 21):

SNA will never see HNL service due to weight limits.

Say that to Aloha and United...
I wouldn't be surprised to see SNA near the top of the list. It is a great alternative to LAX, more convenient for people living in the Irvine-Anaheim-Newport Beach area, and the flight times are perfect for connections and O&D (granted they do do redeyes). I don't think a weight restriction would hurt WN as bad as it would UA because a WN 73G would have a lower percentage of seats lost than a UA 73G. Do I think it'll be number 1? No, LAX is a better station to prospect any Hawaii service IMO. Do I think it's in the top 5? Definitely.



Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlinechrisair From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 2114 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8330 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 23):
I wouldn't be surprised to see SNA near the top of the list.

I wouldn't be surprised either. But do you think WN wants to spend the money on a sub fleet of 73Gs that are ETOPS certified? Would they want to have a fleet of 5 or so planes that are only for one or two routes (i.e. BUR-Hawaii-SNA-Hawaii-BUR)?


25 RayChuang : I really wonder would WN considering flying to Hawai'i? Remember, we already have HA and UA flying there, and revenue is going to be quite low given t
26 EA CO AS : Neither of which used 738s on the route; 73Gs were used, and they have no weight penalty on SNA-HNL whereas a 738 does, rendering the flight unprofit
27 Post contains images wnflyguy : Aloha and now with United even have weight restrictions on every flight from SNA to Hawaii. United unlike Aloha blocks 20 seats on SNA-HNL flights 20m
28 Barney Captain : Filling in for a chartered 757 and trying to schedule year round service are two completely different concepts. The -800 will likely never be schedul
29 jporterfi : I think they will probably go with LAX and OAK (or maybe SJC instead?) on the mainland side and HNL and OGG on the Hawaii side. I think those are the
30 EA CO AS : LAX and OAK are no-brainers, and I can potentially see ONT as well, possibly SAN. Beyond that, I don't know that I can see any other viable West Coast
31 atrude777 : Yes, WN is considering it and has every intention of starting Hawaii as soon as they can. They didn't get the -800 to hop around the US from MDW-STL,
32 COA735 : What about PDX? Don't they have a sizable presence there?
33 TWA772LR : I think RayChuang meant the Big Island.
34 flyer737sw : Considering we need to have mechanics for ETOPS flights, OAK, LAS, PHX, and LAX will be among the first to serve Hawaii, along with SJC and SAN at a l
35 Post contains links HiFlyerAS : AS already looked at service from SNA-HNL It wasn't practical on the -800 due to weight restrictions because of the runway length. Outfitting a small
36 msp747 : I think SEA is a no go based on costs. WN tried to move its flights to Boeing Field because of the high costs of operating out of SEA. Why would they
37 laca773 : Is LAX a "no brainer" because the 73Hs won't take a weight penalty? There's a lot of traffic from LAX already. If it does happen, I hope it brings do
38 lightsaber : Even with the latest CFM-56 'evolution?' I suspect there is the possibility of a well timed (morning) flight. It is a question of when, not if. Light
39 Barney Captain : I question whether or not you will see us doing LAX - Hawaii at all. As you correctly state, that market is completely saturated by every major carri
40 HiFlyerAS : AS is not happy that they don't serve Hawaii from the LA Basin. It's the big hole in the route map...but like Barney said, there's already a huge amo
41 usflyguy : No such rules to force a large station. CRP has 3 flights a day some days. SJD is being opened with 1 SNA flight/day. MEX is being opened with 2 flig
42 Barney Captain : Agreed. This may be what swings the pendulum in favor of doing it.
43 Post contains links and images lightsaber : In 2011 CFM launched a reduced fuel burn CFM-56, much of which (I found out this week) is nacelle changes. http://www.flightglobal.com/director...fac
44 StuckInCA : That seems unimaginable to me. There is already a ton of Hawaii service from SEA with AS and Hawaiian. Why would anyone choose WN over those (on this
45 AADC10 : I doubt they would operate out of SNA. The slots might be better used elsewhere and it would be difficult for a 737 to get off the short runway and g
46 777STL : I don't see either being worth WN's time. From an economies of scale perspective, it's not going to be worth it for WN to set up a station for a coup
47 EA CO AS : LAX is a slam-dunk. Even though there's stiff competition, WN can compete against every carrier in the LAX-HNL or LAX-OGG market with three major adv
48 FlyASAGuy2005 : LAX-HNL has been around forever. There is plenty of competition. I'm not sure how much more "stimulating" WN can induce. With the so called Southwest
49 QANTAS747-438 : Yes, there is stiff competition, but if you look at it strictly from a loads point of view, ALL the flights on UA, AA, DL are FULL. They are packed y
50 EA CO AS : Absolutely. Except it's not that WN would lower fares which would stimulate new demand, but rather the public's perception that they'd lower fares th
51 RWA380 : That's not going to happen with WN now, and the cost of jet fuel. I think some of your cities are correct. I think OAK is a no brainer, WN may be abl
52 RWA380 : Don't forget DL on this route as well. daily 753's IIRC. WN has publicly stated they will be concentrating ETOPS certification for the 800's only, an
53 SANFan : Lots of people talking about the "givens" and "slam dunks" here. Just thought I'd put things in perspective by noting who's listed in WN's own Top Ten
54 gizmonc : Five hours flying time from all of those cities is a long flight to me. But I presume the WIFI will be working on all those flights so if you have a t
55 FlyASAGuy2005 : I most certainly agree with you EA. My thing is that I question the amount of demand actually left to stimulate.
56 usflyguy : Yes, all -800's are coming online with wifi and it's satellite based so it should work over the pacific. WN already has quite a few 5+ hour flights,
57 SeeTheWorld : LAX, OAK, LAS ... HNL, OGG
58 atrude777 : Barely... PVD-LAS holds WN's longest route by mileage at 2, 363, MHT-LAS follows by 2,356. However if we're to include Air Tran flying, BWI-SFO will
59 aloha73g : I think they will start with something like: 2 x HNL-LAX 3 x HNL-OAK 1 x HNL-SAN I would expect these flights to originate in other big WN cities (BWI
60 WNCrew : With ITO being fairly dead, and the local area (in terms of hotels etc) fairly depressed, do any of you see ITO being a good alternative to KOA cost-w
61 EA CO AS : So let me get this straight; you're advocating that WN add very costly (and unappealing to customers!) tags to a potential West Coast to Hawaii servi
62 zippyjet : Haven't heard anything out of BWI but, chances are when I'm invited to dress as a Sumo wrestler with a pineapple that will mean our company is ready f
63 Beardown91737 : In the early 1990s, AS would take off their MD80s from SNA with low fuel to meet noise rules. They stopped at ONT to get enough fuel to complete the
64 Post contains images RWA380 : What I was saying, there is already an increased demand for Hawaii, as passengers are opting to take domestic vacations, as International ticket taxe
65 QANTAS747-438 : Where or when has WN said this? I agree with everything said, I just haven't seen that publicly stated. It's a good idea and nobody has yet to mentio
66 RWA380 : It was stated in a previous thread, something to do with WN Hawaii services, I'll look for it, and add a link. Sorry wish I had the information at my
67 Post contains images QANTAS747-438 : Sorry, I meant the part about WN stating they will do redeyes, not the ETOPS/-800 part.
68 RWA380 : Something else I read in that same thread, I of course am going on what was said, although I did read the article. The only possible way WN will be a
69 EA CO AS : My comments weren't intended to be nasty, and I certainly apologize if that's how they came across. Nonetheless, I do stand by what I said in terms o
70 Bluewave 707 : Since WN pretty much runs ONT ... they could even fly out of there to offset some of the LAX congestion ...
71 aztrainer : Most of the time is was the 757 My first flight to HNL was on a HP 757 and in the summer and it was weight restricted, As for WN flying to Hawai'i fr
72 Post contains images RWA380 : Yeah it did, I'm over it. I personally don't think WN will look at PDX & SEA to HI, but the comment I responded to had someone thinking WN would
73 SANFan : Hey RWA', I should probably stay out of this but I think EA CO AS was specifically talking about your suggestion of WN flying between SEA and PDX (as
74 Post contains images SurfandSnow : I think we can all agree that WN to Hawaii is now a matter of when, not if. After all, there really wouldn't be a need to undergo the extensive (and e
75 usflyguy : Do VX 319's/320's have the range?
76 EA CO AS : Yes, however A319s are better suited than the A320s from a capability perspective.
77 Beardown91737 : Not to the extent they dominate MDW, but WN does have over half the traffic and 25% of the gates. HA tried it in the early 90s, but with a L1011 4x w
78 RWA380 : Hey Bob, I get it, but IMO, WN won't be flying same plane flights with ETOPS aircraft to BWI, MDW, HOU or the east at all, at least for quite awhile.
79 SANFan : And I get it! That makes a lot of sense so I guess it will mostly be connections then.... bb
80 mcg : I think that WN will relatively quickly try to serve KOA and LIH in addition to OGG and HNL. The reason is that with no inter-line luggage transfer or
81 atrude777 : Ahhh BUT...unless I am wrong, the new contract voted by the pilot bans domestic code sharing EXCEPT for Hawaii Intra Island routings. So...that scena
82 Barney Captain : SurfandSnow is spot on.
83 Post contains images RWA380 : From another thread here on A.net regarding VX looking to hire an ETOPS certification manager, I read it will only be when VX gets the 320NEO that VX
84 Post contains images SkyCub : Oh yes... and we cannot all wait for that.
85 CALPSAFltSkeds : One poster somewhere said WN was to get 33 738s this year. If that's the case, then it won't take long for WN to have enough aircraft to not have a c
86 SANFan : Since the jury still seems to be out on whether the 738 can make it (or would be used by WN) nonstop between LAS/PHX and the Islands, it seems quite
87 AADC10 : Considering that the average legacy mainline systemwide load average is around 85%, almost all flights are full to everywhere. The 85% includes weeke
88 aztrainer : The newer 737's did not reach high enough altitude or sit for long enough to allow the engine cores to cool down. They were experiencing a higher fai
89 aloha73g : Exactly, the 737-200 was perfectly suited to Hawaii interisland operations. Quick flights with equally quick turns with each aircraft operating 16 or
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