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EK 2nd Flight To IAH...Again?  
User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5209 posts, RR: 8
Posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 6869 times:

Over at www.houstonspotters.net they are saying that the morning flight to DXB should be back on the schedules in August with both flights going back -200LR. Any confirmation on that?


Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
20 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13551 posts, RR: 100
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 6482 times:
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EK is receiving more aircraft, so it is possible. Eventually, it will happen. However, with EK and QR going 'heat to head' at IAH, I'm not sure the yield is there at this time for another 77L. There will not be confirmation until EK posts a press release or Tim Clark informs us in a speech.

I personally think ORD or MIA would have a better return on investment. However, this could be a preemptive move before QR moves in with a 788. Note: I do not believe current 788s have the range for DOH-IAH, but they will. 2X/day 788 by QR would negate EK's 'first mover advantage' unless EK is also 2X/day. But 2x 77L vs 2X 788?   

On a side note, I suspect IAH and LAX will duke it out to be the first new destinations for the circa 2013 high MTOW/wing twist A380s.    Both are high premium markets where the competitive edge the A380 offers should be of value (14% lower CASM than the 77W, bar for J, larger cabin makes for easier yield management); I personally hope to see the EK A380 at LAX.   


Note: Your link does not lead (at least not easily) to the topic under discussion.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17829 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 6389 times:

I wouldn't be surprised, but at the same time EK's reduction to 1 flight brought LF up around 30 points to the mid 80s. 2 daily were not full by any means.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 6154 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 1):
Eventually, it will happen. However, with EK and QR going 'heat to head' at IAH, I'm not sure the yield is there at this time for another

Cargo folks. Cargo.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17829 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 6090 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 3):
Cargo folks. Cargo.

That's 16 hours of cargo nonstop @ $4/gal fuel--that's some 'spensive cargo! Especially if that cargo has no preference for the nonstop versus a onestop over Europe or MEM, as cargo usually does.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 6032 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 4):
That's 16 hours of cargo nonstop @ $4/gal fuel--that's some 'spensive cargo! Especially if that cargo has no preference for the nonstop versus a onestop over Europe or MEM, as cargo usually does.

Oil service cargo is not noted for begin price sensitive



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinedalca From Netherlands, joined Aug 2006, 536 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5819 times:

Oil well euipment can be some of the most high yielding cargo out there. However I am not sure how cargo these flights can take with them and the price would be pretty high. Not high enough to make the flight break-even IMHO


Zanair flight, please hold on finals as we have to clear rhino's off the runway. Next flight KUL-FRA-AMS Flown in A319,A
User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5209 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5800 times:

Quoting dalca (Reply 6):
Not high enough to make the flight break-even IMHO

EK never had break even issues with IAH.



Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlineFlyingSicilian From Italy, joined Mar 2009, 1402 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5717 times:

premium fares also. I literally know dozens of people at Hal, National Oilwell Varco, and a few others that regularly fly this route in business. The backend traffic is gravy, and even then Fluor, Bechtel and others fly works to Afghanistan on this flight after training in Houston.


“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5701 times:

Quoting dalca (Reply 6):
Oil well euipment can be some of the most high yielding cargo out there. However I am not sure how cargo these flights can take with them and the price would be pretty high. Not high enough to make the flight break-even IMHO

Well SQ seems to think that carrying cargo from IAH is so lucrative that it keeps a 77W on the route instead of a more appropriately sized 772.

There was a post on Houston Spotters a year or two ago about EK and cargo and that cargo was the reason why would see more 77Ls on the route before any IGW 380 was put on it.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7821 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5701 times:

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 8):
premium fares also. I literally know dozens of people at Hal, National Oilwell Varco, and a few others that regularly fly this route in business. The backend traffic is gravy, and even then Fluor, Bechtel and others fly works to Afghanistan on this flight after training in Houston.

Enough to support a 2nd EK flight along with QR and potentially TK?

There is going to be a breaking point somewhere. EK didnt move the 2nd flight from IAH for no reason.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5681 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
There is going to be a breaking point somewhere. EK didnt move the 2nd flight from IAH for no reason.

Actually they did. They were short on 77Ls and wanted to get into DFW before QR or someone else did. It was noted in that thread that a good bit of the IAH traffic was originating in DFW so it wasn't "trimming IAH" as much as it was "adding DFW"



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5209 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5488 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
There is going to be a breaking point somewhere. EK didnt move the 2nd flight from IAH for no reason.
Quoting yellowtail (Reply 11):
Actually they did. They were short on 77Ls and wanted to get into DFW before QR or someone else did. It was noted in that thread that a good bit of the IAH traffic was originating in DFW so it wasn't "trimming IAH" as much as it was "adding DFW"

Exactly, there were rumors when it moved that once the adequate number of frames came online that he 2nd flight would be back, I was skeptical because I thought the market was saturated - maybe I (we) were wrong. This also could be a preimptive move against TK as well; especially since they will have Star Alliance feed. Of course none of this is concrete till we get confirmation.



Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13551 posts, RR: 100
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 5381 times:
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Quoting yellowtail (Reply 5):
Oil service cargo is not noted for begin price sensitive

   But with two existing flights and other alternatives, I do not see the yield being so high to pay for the flight. If it was, then EK would just fly a 777F all cargo on the route.

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 12):
I was skeptical because I thought the market was saturated

I do not see TK's flight available yet. Could this be a preemptive move to cut off TK's expansion?

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 5316 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 13):
But with two existing flights and other alternatives, I do not see the yield being so high to pay for the flight. If it was, then EK would just fly a 777F all cargo on the route.

I have been boarding at the adjacent gate to this flight a few times...and every time i have watched pallet after pallet ...all shrink-wrapped get loaded on. I once even saw them loading what looked to be pipes and thought to myself that those must have been very important pipes to someone.

My brother routinely uses the flight and he says that F & J are very hard to get a last minute booking on ....Y is usually a bit more open. When he can't get a J seat, his company gives him the choice to buy 2 Y seats or go via DOH, LHR or AMS...but never do they say wait a day.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2242 posts, RR: 15
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 5279 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 13):
I do not see TK's flight available yet. Could this be a preemptive move to cut off TK's expansion?

Doubtful. Most people are now familiar with TK's style of "mostly talk" aka they've supposedly "announced" DTW, BOS, IAH, MIA, ATL, etc. etc. and none of them have materialized.

Regardless, I am sure TK will go into IAH independently of EK whenever they feel ready. They do have the advantage of the Star Alliance feed, but also they have built up a successful operation at IST on a reliable product (and with decently competitive fares!)



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 5247 times:

TK should do fine....Ideally EK, QR, SQ and TK all should have a daily. LH should be fine with the star feed. Real one to watch to see if they can (re)carve out niches for themselves after these carriers have plundered a lot of their F&J and UA have siphoned off the LOS etc traffic will be KL, AF and BA. BA is probably the most solid due to the north sea traffic. Ditto for KL (even after losing the shell contract). AF really is the one to watch....AF need to find themselves a niche....maybe the developing Africa oil routes like the Congo.

It is always amazing to me to see how much premium traffic oil can support in one city. Don't forget GIG, CCS and POS



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13551 posts, RR: 100
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 5023 times:
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The one question I have is, what is UA/CO going to do with their 787s at IAH? That could be the spoiler if they start IAH-IST and ???. I do not think UA would go 'toe to toe' with EK, but perhaps they would cooperate?    Stranger things have happened...

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 14):
I have been boarding at the adjacent gate to this flight a few times...and every time i have watched pallet after pallet ...all shrink-wrapped get loaded on. I once even saw them loading what looked to be pipes and thought to myself that those must have been very important pipes to someone.

First, great to hear of a US airport with cargo and premium are going out! Does anyone know if QR has similar demand? I'll accept there is good demand for cargo (somehow not requiring a dedicated freighter...).

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 14):
My brother routinely uses the flight and he says that F & J are very hard to get a last minute booking on ....Y is usually a bit more open. When he can't get a J seat, his company gives him the choice to buy 2 Y seats or go via DOH, LHR or AMS...but never do they say wait a day.

This does suggest a 77L would be well used on the routes. Out of curiosity, why is going via DXB the preferred routing? Without giving away anything personal about your brother is it:
1. He works in Dubai (at least part time)?
2. He meets people in Dubai and then connects onward for the real work?
3. Convenience of connections?
4. Corporate contracts?


FWIW, between J and two Y seats, I would always pick J.    Easier sleep, better food (I prefer quality to quantity as I get older).

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 15):
Doubtful. Most people are now familiar with TK's style of "mostly talk" aka they've supposedly "announced" DTW, BOS, IAH, MIA, ATL, etc. etc. and none of them have materialized.

One way to keep it 'mostly talk' is to remove some of the financial gain in starting the route.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 15):
I am sure TK will go into IAH independently of EK whenever they feel ready. They do have the advantage of the Star Alliance feed, but also they have built up a successful operation at IST on a reliable product (and with decently competitive fares!)

Unless the demand is met via alternate *A feed (UA 787) to IST. I see TK having a 15 month long window, at most, to start the route or be 'overcome by events.'

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 5013 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
Out of curiosity, why is going via DXB the preferred routing?

The have a corporate contract with EK



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineASA From Bangladesh, joined Dec 2010, 800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2902 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
Unless the demand is met via alternate *A feed (UA 787) to IST. I see TK having a 15 month long window, at most, to start the route or be 'overcome by events.'

Actually, that could be a very interesting move by UA. Probably a great 787 route ... TK should code-share with them instead of committing a 77W here, and also code-share on the upcoming EWR-IST route. Will be a great competition to EK, QR, etc. And given the rising importance of Turkey in Central Asian gas pipelines, Houston energy companies may find it to their use as well.

Can anyone answer, if they already code-share on the other *A hub routes, ORD and IAD?


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13551 posts, RR: 100
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2521 times:
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Quoting ASA (Reply 19):
Actually, that could be a very interesting move by UA. Probably a great 787 route ... TK should code-share with them instead of committing a 77W here, and also code-share on the upcoming EWR-IST route.

I agree the IAH-IST would be a great 787 route. About the right gauge to initiate service and about ideal range for 787 economics. For EWR-IST, there should be code sharing, but that I would expect on TK metal. Perhaps a deal where UA flights IAH and TK to EWR?

Quoting ASA (Reply 19):
Will be a great competition to EK, QR, etc.

   *A should keep making such connections to compete well with the code shares and other IT tricks to make the transition as seamless for the customer as possible.

Lightsaber

ps (late edit):
I consider both IAH and EWR ideal hubs for 787 expansion. EWR to China will require some of the later 787s for best economics, but both will be able to initiate expansion with the current (heavy, pre-engine PIPs) 787s. With EWR, I will also be curious about expansion to India. For IAH, I could see some expansion to oil drilling sites in Africa/mid-east with the 787 (probably on a less than daily basis) as well as China/Korea/Japan. Looking at the great circle mapper, IST would be a perfect hub to add to IAH for connections.

[Edited 2012-05-17 22:43:50]


Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
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