Ben175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 568 posts, RR: 0 Posted (1 year 20 hours ago) and read 11545 times:
Quote: Perth Airport's annual passenger growth could quadruple to 40 million in the next 17 years - more than double the estimate by the airfield's owners - according to a State Government paper.
The WA State Aviation Strategy Issues Paper, which has just been released for comment, warns that "even that figure, which represents a growth of 7.7 per cent a year, is conservative given over the past five years passenger numbers have soared by 9.2 per cent a year".
Plane movements are also breaking records, increasing by 260 per cent since 1992 to 141,000 a year.
Those statistics are incredible! Reading this article made me think, what is next for PER?
We have:
QR touching down in July
EY "hinting" at service by the end of the year
NZ upgrading PER-AKL to a daily 772
SQ, MK and D7 all increasing frequency to SIN, MRU and KUL respectively
DJ increasing PER-SYD/MEL with more A330 coast-to-coast services
KQ expressing interest in serving PER from NBO with 787s by 2017
Massive continuous growth in the regional sector
Interest to fly to Perth from Lion Air, Batavia and even Silk Air
This leads me to question, what growth will we see in the next 5-10 years? Will we see direct to Europe eventually? What about services to the USA? Japan? China? India?
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1540 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (1 year 20 hours ago) and read 11502 times:
Would a 77L be able to do LHR-PER nonstop today? That could be a transit hub for domestic flights in Oz? Asia would lose some transit traffic this way.
IndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 2400 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (1 year 19 hours ago) and read 11480 times:
Umm.. I have a feeling that someone in govt has been having a good time in dreamland
Ok, PER is going very strongly currently, but it is also incredibly reliant on mining remaining a star performer over the medium term. Things are far too hard to predict day by day, let alone years down the track. It will need to diversify it's economy much more than it is today to really build a platform for future success.
The other point, Perth is still a limited market given it's isolation, even with a growing population. It likely lacks the base of the eastern states to sustain higher longer term growth.
In saying that though, I can still see it challenging BNE for 3rd position in regards to International pax in a few years time at this rate.
I would pencil in more NZ frequency growth and increased China service as the 2 immediate areas of focus at present. Add in the other Asian and Gulf carriers and it is likely to see capacity rises for several years to come.
Ben175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 568 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (1 year 19 hours ago) and read 11350 times:
Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 4): ^^ Would it be viable is another issue though. I strongly suspect not at this stage.
Apparently VA was very close to snapping up some 77L's to operate PER-LHR and SYD-JFK "non-stop" (though I don't think the latter route would be viable with even a 77L year-round) I think if they maintained the feed, PER-LHR would work (but severely impact SQ, MH, TG and even EK)
CXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 2694 posts, RR: 1 Reply 6, posted (1 year 19 hours ago) and read 11301 times:
Quoting Ben175 (Thread starter): SQ, MK and D7 all increasing frequency to SIN, MRU and KUL respectively
And for SQ, they have increased aircraft size (on multiple frequencies) from A333 to 772, and for some frequencies this Northern Summer there will be the 777-300 as well on the route.
When VS ordered the 787, Branson said that the two first routes would be LHR-HNL and LHR-PER. However, lots of things have changed, and the 787 profile has also changed. Think the route is a bit too far for VS' upcoming 787-9s, at least without payload losses, etc.
Even Qatar seem to have upgraded the route without actually having started. They announced the route as an A330-200 route, but it will now start with the 777-200LR.
IndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 2400 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (1 year 19 hours ago) and read 11291 times:
^^ Umm.. I severly doubt that VA had any serious plans to do so, sorry to say.
Since the move to develop partnerships, it's not even a consideration for them these days anyway.
The Asian/Gulf stop overs are very valuable for carriers, as it allows for significant feed from a network wide perspective. It's just as easy to fly from MEL/SYD/BNE through SIN/HKG/DXB to Europe than going via PER anyway.
ULH is a struggle at the best of times, as you need people to pay a substantial premium to fly the sector. The real issue is that many just won't pay it, leaving either a lower LF or a need to cut fares to generate pax demand, which leads to a non-viable route.
SA744 From South Africa, joined Nov 2005, 201 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (1 year 18 hours ago) and read 11053 times:
Im just interested to know what is the news on the QF/SA codeshare have they decided to call it a day and will SAA carry on flying the route or will QF take the route over. Will we maybe see the daily SYD-JNB flight become SYD-PER-JNB
A bit out of date, I know, this came a after the inital press release, where PER and HNL fall into the "consideration" bracket (MEL is on the list of routes).
I don't see it happening in the current climate, but you never know. VS would be stupid to not consider it for the future. Anyway, one can be hopeful.
qf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2549 posts, RR: 1 Reply 12, posted (1 year 15 hours ago) and read 10804 times:
The biggest issue with PER-LHR is that the market for these flights is on the East Coast. There might be a few pax in PER, but the simple fact that 90% of the population lives east of Perth removes any non-stop competitive advantage. The market for business travellers going to Europe is virtually non-existent in Perth, which has much closer ties to Asia.
Once the non-stop advantage to gone, there's not much left. The time saving would be minimal (ie 16-17 hours PER-LHR, plus 3-4 hours SYD-PER, plus 1-2 hours transit) and the operating costs would make it a very difficult route to sell when there are equally competitive alternatives via Asia and the ME, especially in Y. The market isn't there for all-J flights.
I don't see nonstop Australia-Europe until we start seeing orbital flights...
As for the future of PER -- the NEO/MAX will bring a lot of opportunities for expansion. PER is a pretty small market, so I struggle to see how much long existing growth can be sustained. Longer range NB's could potentially pave the way for a lot of growth further into Asia, which is Perth's trading region...
PITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 2679 posts, RR: 3 Reply 14, posted (1 year 14 hours ago) and read 10655 times:
Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 2): The other point, Perth is still a limited market given it's isolation, even with a growing population. It likely lacks the base of the eastern states to sustain higher longer term growth.
But its this isolation which gives it a high propensity for air travel. As long as its population continues to grow, which it will, then so will PER.
CXB77L From Australia, joined Feb 2009, 2180 posts, RR: 4 Reply 17, posted (1 year 5 hours ago) and read 9502 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW CHAT OPERATOR
Quoting sweair (Reply 1): Would a 77L be able to do LHR-PER nonstop today?
LHR-PER is no sweat for the 77L. PER-LHR is, but it can still be done. Great Circle distance between PER-LHR is 7829nm. According to the payload/range chart, the 77L can fly approximately 7600nm with a full payload, so there'll definitely be some payload penalties on that route - especially when you take into account prevailing winds.
But as others have said, whether or not it's viable is a different story.
sydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2366 posts, RR: 18 Reply 18, posted (1 year 5 hours ago) and read 9427 times:
Quoting qf002 (Reply 12): The market for business travellers going to Europe is virtually non-existent in Perth, which has much closer ties to Asia.
I wouldn't be so sure of that. As an example, Rio's headquarters are in London and it's cash cow Iron Ore headquarters is in Perth. Along with all of the foreign funds managers that would start off their trips in PER I'd say there would be a steady stream of high yielding business pax that a direct service would be attractive to.
Quoting Ben175 (Thread starter): What about services to the USA? Japan? China? India?
The USA I can't see. The range and the demand just isn't there. You will defintiely see increased service from China as the Chinese carriers build out their hubs just as the other Asian carriers have and add the Perth spoke. Japan I can't really see coming back unless Jetstar can be persuaded. India is interesting although without significant Indian Resource Investments I suspect traffic would be relatively low yielding. That along with AI not even being organised enough to serve SYD or MEL, let alone an even closer market makes me think India is longer term rather than shorter.
Infrastructure building and LOTS of it! New Terminals, expanded taxiways and runways, more aircraft parking bays etc etc etc. It's needed right now just to service what PER already has before we start taking growth into account!
weebie From Australia, joined Dec 2009, 196 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (1 year 4 hours ago) and read 9092 times:
People here underestimate travel to Europe from Perth. Perth has a seriously large amount of UK expats.
The SAA QF codeshare will be interesting. I suspect.
Ethiad are coming to Perth in November will be announced shortly. Kenya Airways are coming here in a few years as well.
I doubt NRT will commence though that route has been doomed for years and the Tsumani gave QF teh excuse to get rid of it, after the state government convinced them to keep it.
BoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1003 posts, RR: 2 Reply 21, posted (1 year 4 hours ago) and read 9075 times:
Quoting sweair (Reply 13): I rather do a stop on Australian soil after that hard long journey, the domestic flight will feel like a breeze
Yup me too.
Quoting PITrules (Reply 14): But its this isolation which gives it a high propensity for air travel. As long as its population continues to grow, which it will, then so will PER.
Absolutely, PER airport is basically used like a bus/ train station, if you are leaving Perth you are flying, there is no other practical means of transport.
Quoting qf002 (Reply 12): The biggest issue with PER-LHR is that the market for these flights is on the East Coast. There might be a few pax in PER, but the simple fact that 90% of the population lives east of Perth removes any non-stop competitive advantage. The market for business travellers going to Europe is virtually non-existent in Perth, which has much closer ties to Asia.
Yes, yes, the 10% of us that live in Perth are well used to this patronising Eastern states attitude. 10% is STILL 2 million people which is still a lot of people. I personally would pay a little bit extra to avoid a plane change in Asia. People fly with a lot of toys these days and a transpacific 14 hours or PER-LHR 17 hours wouldn't make a great deal of difference.
There is no incentive on airlines to fly this route non stop, QF could do it but are cutting investment and routes, VA well possibly, they did give SYD-JNB a go for a while but without much success. SQ, EK or EY really want to take traffic to their hubs. Until someone takes the punt on the route with a 77L we are not going to know how successful the route would be I really believe that it could be viable, the traffic definitely there costs as always is the problem.
The problem I see with Virgin Australia is that a PER-LHR undercuts their EY partnership, which has a hub almost right in line for that route. Don't think EY would be happy seeing VA fly over and past them.
But maybe EY will be happy enough servicing the other European destinations and allowing VA to fly PER-LHR. However, VA would first need the right aircraft, so this would be many years down the line at best.
25 BoeingVista: Thats the problem with alliances, they stifle competition. They are effectively an agreement bot to compete and operate anti competitive price fixing
26 CXfirst: By the time Virgin Australia had aircraft capable of LHR-PER non-stop, they should have moved into their new facility at the International Airport. I
27 IndianicWorld: VA keeps being raised in relation to Virgin Atlantic. The code is VS. If EY does arrive in PER, not quite sure it won't be a bloodbath. 4x daily gulf
28 qf002: But it's Australian HQ is in MEL... In all likelihood, the Perth offices report to Melbourne who then report to London. It's not a patronising Easter
29 BoeingVista: Whos talking abit Virgin atlantic? I'm talking about Virgin Australia which technically is still DJ, VS something completly different. You would be i
30 CXfirst: There has been talk about both. VS mentioned PER many years ago as a possible 787 destination, while VA has been mentioned here as also being seen as
31 IndianicWorld: ^^ Just as BHP is HQ'ed in MEL. That's where the decisions are made. PER has many staff for Rio and BHP, but these are usually on the operations roles
32 IndianicWorld: CXFirst and BoeingVista, I was referring to points made earlier with suggested that VA were looking to get 77Ls for PER-LHR. I then suggested that was
33 sweair: Perth has one big disadvantage, few aircraft will have the range and seats to pay for the extra fuel, but the 77L and the 340-500 can make it. Maybe P
34 qf002: Well technically you're talking about the international arm, which does use the VA code... Only domestic and Tasman flights come under the DJ code.
35 maxter: But you fail to realize that we have a greater percentage of inhabitants that can afford overseas travel than the rustbelt states... Absolutely and a
36 grimey: Will Boeing or Airbus make a plane that can do DUB - PER with so many Irish people in Perth (including myself) the fastest way is one stop with EK but
37 qf002: The percentage is utterly irrelevant... 10% of 2 million people in Perth is still a vastly smaller market than 5% of 6 million people in Sydney. AND
38 IndianicWorld: ^^ Very true. Maxter, people from WA have said for years that the HQ of Rio and BHP would move to Perth... Waiting, waiting.... Theres very compelling
39 Ben175: Has CZ raised frequency on PER-CAN-PEK yet? I haven't read anything about it, but I know there was plans.
40 weebie: BHP and Rio will never move to Perth. The talent locally can't compete. I think Scoot is a good candidate for Perth
41 shnoob940: Just a question to do with Perth - how long has DJ been operating the 1778/1781 service to Launceston? Apart from the Fremantle footy club I can't see
42 Ben175: I didn't even know DJ operated to LST? Maybe they have operated a few charter flights recently. I hope Scoot replaces Tiger on PER-SIN personally.
43 CXfirst: Think this is a one off for the footy match. Part of DJ's contract with the AFL. -CXfirst
44 RyanairGuru: Well if you're going to nit-pick then so will I ... neither DPS nor HKT are domestic or Tasman routes I know that this is going to be bleeding obviou
45 sweair: Say that the BWB is built and that could lower fuel costs at least 30% from the frame and even more with the engines of that era. Would people settle
46 Flyingsottsman: Yes there is a huge ex pat UK population living in Perth I often woundered why BA axed Perth all those years ago. They only fly Peth to Launceston wh
47 shnoob940: I went on to the website on Friday, and 1781 was open to bookings for $389. If you were a diehard Freo fan you could meet all the players through thi
48 eaglefarm4: This document is the most recent covering the 20 years 2009-2029 for all the capital city airports http://www.google.com.au/search?q=au...=11259e1e762
49 fiscal: As indeed it was not so many years ago.....
50 StickShaker: People have been predicting the end of the boom for the last 5 or 6 years, meanwhile air travel in WA continues to grow at an astonishing rate. Its a
51 maxter: Not to mention Woodside, Chevron, FMG, Lend Lease, Shell, Exxon Mobil, Alcoa, Apache Energy, Inpex, ConocoPhillips and many others. It's amazing just
52 JQflightie: I think people here are forgetting that we are talking about a airport that is really struggling big time with the traffic that it currently has to th
53 qf002: Just a few notes: Lend Lease has their HQ in Sydney. Shell has their HQ in Melbourne. Exxon has their HQ in Melbourne. Nobody is denying that WA has
54 IndianicWorld: ^^ Good analysis. Overall, as you stated, Asia is the real focus of WA's economic strength. Further links to Asia can definitely be expected, with car
55 StickShaker: Contribution to merchandise exports will tell a very different story - Australia's wealth is export dependent. GDP is not always the best metric to s
56 BoeingVista: Yes it does but this is Australia and we would rather invest in sports stadia than Airports; the $1bn totally pointless stadium at Burswood, complete
57 IndianicWorld: I'm loving the smugness those in WA seem to have in it's boom times I think by now, if anything has been learnt from the past, WA should be anything b
58 maxter: I was just about to say exactly that, but you beat me to it. Recently there was an interesting metric annunciated by the producer of large pleasure c
59 qf002: It is very true that WA exports a large proportion of our total national exports -- I'm not denying this. WA is the origin of 40-45% of our exports I
60 BoeingVista: In this instance it kinda is, (on your argument) it may be run by 2 blokes in Sydney with a pot of cash but the billions of dollars in investment and
61 airbazar: I suppose that's why EK, QR, EY, all want out of this market
62 StickShaker: I'm pretty sure ABS and ABARE measure the activity in the location it occurs. Another metric I forgot to mention is the size of the investment pipeli
63 fiscal: True, and this causes a rush hour a couple of times a day so that flights coincide with mining company roster schedules. On my daily morning walk the
64 qf002: As I pointed out, the Northern Territory also has a significantly higher GSP per capita than NSW, Victoria, Queensland etc. To suggest that this show
65 BoeingVista: Ok back on topic, rather than just say its not possible do you have any figures to back this up? Can anyone give us ballpark figures on how much frei
66 RyanairGuru: I wasn't planning on wading into the East v West debate, but succession would require a Constitutional amendment. Good luck with that... "The propose
67 BoeingVista: Thats a silly argument, if WA voted by a large majority to succeed and this was then overturned by the bulk of the states voting to keep us in that w
68 StickShaker: I will address your points but I'll try to keep it within the context of aviation - just need to lay a little groundwork. 1. You need to closely exam
69 gemuser: Sorry RyanairGuru but you are wrong on this one. All that needs to happen is for the WA Parliament to repeal the Act of Accession to the Commonwealth
70 maxter: Yes, how does a state withhold 60% of GST revenue (that is used to prop up the rust belt) if it doesn't see it in the first place? Just imagine what
71 qf002: Someone else might know, I certainly don't. I'm basing my judgement on what the rest of the industry is doing, and basic logic... I do know that a ro
72 BoeingVista: Okay so which state actually wins with GST? Or are the feds running a huge pyramid scheme and syphoning off the cash into a Swiss account?
73 qf002: Haha, you never know what they're up to Tasmania is the biggest winner, and gets a lot more back than they put in. A lot of the money also seems to g
74 gemuser: When talking about TOTAL Commonwealth grants to the states (not just GST) then ALL states EXCEPT NSW & VIC get more in grants than they pay in ta
75 BoeingVista: Ok, lets go another way then, PER-LHR @ 7800nm is well within the current design range of an A380 (8350nm), and this range should be boosted by anoth
76 tayser: if WA wanted to leave the federation: let them. Don't think the government in Canberra wouldn't make it excruciating for WA to leave: they have every
77 qf002: Thanks gemuser No offense, but that's all I can do...
78 BoeingVista: Meh, I take no offense I'm used to being a man ahead of my times
79 Ben175: I think it's fair to say the Sydneysiders commenting in this thread are just jealous we got QR first. Kidding, of course!
80 qf002: Hahaha -- we don't have space for QR over here because all the A380's take up too much room
81 BoeingVista: No, you don't have space for QR because NSW is hopeless at planning infrastructure.
82 StickShaker: Sydneysiders will one day be catching a high speed train to CBR to board their flights - now thats classic NSW infrastructure planning. Regards, Stic
83 Sandgroper: Crazy we are getting all the International services growing but tourists are having to fork out extremely high rates for Hotels as we dont have enough
84 qf002: Well I'm all for that given I live in Canberra now... It would be sweet to look out the window and see something a little more substantial than a Q40
85 BoeingVista: There is more chance of an A380 service from PER-LHR than a highspeed rail line being built from Sydney to CBR.
88 qf002: Yeah, it might be time to wrap this thread up -- mods?
89 BoeingVista: Hang on Sydneysider, maybe some of us would still like to discuss the growth of traffic in Perth?
90 qf002: Not that you'd know, given that the last 20 posts have basically been jabs across the Nullabor. The topic veered away from aviation after the first 2
91 BoeingVista: Qantas could have received Australia-Europe non-stop A380s next year Ben Sandilands, a respected aviation journalist, posted an article today that say
92 Truemanqld: Even if QF received the 2 A380's next year, they wouldn't have been put on PER-LHR. They would have gone on routes like SYD-DFW because they are very
93 qf002: Not quite. A few points: 1. The article admits that such a service would be dependent on passengers connecting from the East Coast. 2. The article ad
94 BoeingVista: Which is presumably why he includes the line Seriously? You try to twist his words to mean the opposite of what he clearly states. As for time and di
95 qf002: I take the viable tag with a pinch of salt until you (or Mr Sandilands) can show me a QF cost analysis for this route. QF has extremely high operatin
96 RyanairGuru: Jeez you two! You're both right: BV - it's technically possible, 002 - it'll never happen However I'm calling your little lovers' tiff for BV on the
97 BoeingVista: No it doesn't. 3.5% sounds like even less and 3.5% is the actual additional distance. Well, I dispute your timings but from a western perspective rem
98 qf002: Why must you ruin all the fun with your reasoned objectivity?? Okay, I promise this is my last response to this thread... I can see where you're gett
99 sethor: Why would you think it will be more expensive? Currently most fares ex Australia to London are pretty much the same price, even though ex PER it is a
100 qf002: Because ULH costs more to operate. The fuel cost isn't a linear relationship to flight time -- ULH flights burn a lot of fuel carrying fuel for those
101 BoeingVista: Ok buddy, fair enough It can be argued both ways but we do agree that for various reasons it is unlikely to happen with currently available aircraft.
102 9MMPD: Ok I thought I would throw in my 2cents since this is the city I call home. I thought I would start with Perth then answer the topic question In our l
103 CXfirst: the problem is with A330's and ETOPS. If QF or SA want to use A330's across the Indian Ocean, they would need to fly a more northerly route, which ad
104 RyanairGuru: Hell, I've decided to wade in now... qf002 I'm not disagreeing with you - just want to clarify a few things How on earth does a daily A380 from MEL an
105 koruman: Just for the record, as of April 2012, over 70% of Australians earning over $120,000 per year are employed in Western Australia. So while Sydney and M
106 qantas077: not for much longer...and you'll find that the most profitable arms of those two companies are HQ'd in Perth. yeah...richest woman in the world and p
107 JQflightie: Alliance are progressivly buying ex QF (JetConnect) 734's, one is based in PER already. If QR want success in PER they need to re-time their flights
108 IndianicWorld: The Global HQ will remain in Melb. Each operational area is based in many parts of the world for many years now, but just read the actual statement i
109 9MMPD: ETOPs should not be too much of an issue as you are right the PER-JNB flights don't fly as far south. Any deviation I would expect would be minimal.
110 JQflightie: They already have ZK-JTQ ex JetConnect
111 RWA380: EWR-SIN is being flown by an all J A345 and not a mixed 77L, unless an A345 carrier flies this route I doubt it'll work. I expect them to try both ro
112 qf002: The point I was trying to make is that the existing level of service to SIN is heavily supported by traffic continuing to LHR. Take away this traffic
113 JQflightie: Why should PER get another lounge? The have The Qantas Club and a Chairmans Lounge? Why have a designated Business Lounge? This is quiet sufficient,
114 RyanairGuru: Because every other major city, from CBR up to SYD, has one. I can only comment on the difference in quality between the Qantas Club and Business Lou
115 CXB77L: The 77L can do any route that the A345 can. One thing I don't get, is that the 787 has less range than the 77L. So if PER-LHR cannot be done economic
116 RWA380: That may be true, but no other airline is going to operate an all J 77L, do the economics of a mixed configuration 77L match those of an all J A345?
117 qf002: You might be interested in this article from last week. It would suggest that VS has few plans to add service to Australia... 1. So that there is a q
118 CXfirst: That is just incorrect. The QR flight connects to the main departure bank at DOH and the main arrival bank. There is a reason it is timed almost iden
119 BAeRJ100: 9MMPD is correct. ZK-JTQ isn't owned by Alliance, it's being leased from and operated by Airwork, a New Zealand company (hence why it has a New Zeala
120 JQflightie: unless they re-timed this flight, it was discusse a while back that it didnt connect with anything in EU except LHR.
121 CXfirst: IIRC, they have always had the same general timing of the flights. The only retiming was small, 30 minutes or so. I'm sure I remember being ecstatic
122 weebie: Who cares. she got her money from daddy and Perth is moron central. BHP and Rio will never leave their Melbourne base. If you work in Management in m
123 pilotdude09: To clarify BHP Iron Ore and Rio Tinto Iron Ore are HQ'd in Perth and Rio CEO Iron Ore reports to London, both are business units and control internat
124 CXB77L: Possibly. The 77L has lower fuel burn per trip and lower trip costs than the A345. As such, the 77L doesn't need to make as much gross revenue to mak
125 Ben175: I completely agree with this statement - KTA Airport is also in huge need of redevelopment. Maybe that's what is stopping QF sending the 763s up ther
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