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Perth's Massive Growth - What's Next?  
User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 12591 times:

Quote:
Perth Airport's annual passenger growth could quadruple to 40 million in the next 17 years - more than double the estimate by the airfield's owners - according to a State Government paper.

The WA State Aviation Strategy Issues Paper, which has just been released for comment, warns that "even that figure, which represents a growth of 7.7 per cent a year, is conservative given over the past five years passenger numbers have soared by 9.2 per cent a year".

Plane movements are also breaking records, increasing by 260 per cent since 1992 to 141,000 a year.

Source: http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-...soar/

Those statistics are incredible! Reading this article made me think, what is next for PER?
We have:
QR touching down in July
EY "hinting" at service by the end of the year
NZ upgrading PER-AKL to a daily 772
SQ, MK and D7 all increasing frequency to SIN, MRU and KUL respectively
DJ increasing PER-SYD/MEL with more A330 coast-to-coast services
KQ expressing interest in serving PER from NBO with 787s by 2017
Massive continuous growth in the regional sector
Interest to fly to Perth from Lion Air, Batavia and even Silk Air

This leads me to question, what growth will we see in the next 5-10 years? Will we see direct to Europe eventually? What about services to the USA? Japan? China? India?

125 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 12548 times:

Would a 77L be able to do LHR-PER nonstop today? That could be a transit hub for domestic flights in Oz? Asia would lose some transit traffic this way.

User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 12526 times:

Umm.. I have a feeling that someone in govt has been having a good time in dreamland  

Ok, PER is going very strongly currently, but it is also incredibly reliant on mining remaining a star performer over the medium term. Things are far too hard to predict day by day, let alone years down the track. It will need to diversify it's economy much more than it is today to really build a platform for future success.

The other point, Perth is still a limited market given it's isolation, even with a growing population. It likely lacks the base of the eastern states to sustain higher longer term growth.

In saying that though, I can still see it challenging BNE for 3rd position in regards to International pax in a few years time at this rate.

I would pencil in more NZ frequency growth and increased China service as the 2 immediate areas of focus at present. Add in the other Asian and Gulf carriers and it is likely to see capacity rises for several years to come.


User currently offlineFlyingHollander From Netherlands, joined Jul 2011, 219 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 12513 times:

Quoting sweair (Reply 1):
Would a 77L be able to do LHR-PER nonstop today?

All I can say is that according to gcmap LHR-PER is 526mi shorter that SIN-EWR.



If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much.
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 12426 times:

^^ Would it be viable is another issue though. I strongly suspect not at this stage.

User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 12396 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 4):
^^ Would it be viable is another issue though. I strongly suspect not at this stage.

Apparently VA was very close to snapping up some 77L's to operate PER-LHR and SYD-JFK "non-stop" (though I don't think the latter route would be viable with even a 77L year-round) I think if they maintained the feed, PER-LHR would work (but severely impact SQ, MH, TG and even EK)


User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 12347 times:

Quoting Ben175 (Thread starter):
SQ, MK and D7 all increasing frequency to SIN, MRU and KUL respectively

And for SQ, they have increased aircraft size (on multiple frequencies) from A333 to 772, and for some frequencies this Northern Summer there will be the 777-300 as well on the route.

Quoting Ben175 (Thread starter):
Will we see direct to Europe eventually?

When VS ordered the 787, Branson said that the two first routes would be LHR-HNL and LHR-PER. However, lots of things have changed, and the 787 profile has also changed. Think the route is a bit too far for VS' upcoming 787-9s, at least without payload losses, etc.

Even Qatar seem to have upgraded the route without actually having started. They announced the route as an A330-200 route, but it will now start with the 777-200LR.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 12337 times:

^^ Umm.. I severly doubt that VA had any serious plans to do so, sorry to say.

Since the move to develop partnerships, it's not even a consideration for them these days anyway.

The Asian/Gulf stop overs are very valuable for carriers, as it allows for significant feed from a network wide perspective. It's just as easy to fly from MEL/SYD/BNE through SIN/HKG/DXB to Europe than going via PER anyway.

ULH is a struggle at the best of times, as you need people to pay a substantial premium to fly the sector. The real issue is that many just won't pay it, leaving either a lower LF or a need to cut fares to generate pax demand, which leads to a non-viable route.


User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 12298 times:

CXFirst, QR really have pushed hard into PER and seem to be doing well.

If EY join the rush into PER, I would suggest things may get messy though.


User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12191 times:

What about further growth into Indonesia? Lion and Batavia have both "announced" services but never actually made the flights bookable.

User currently offlineSA744 From South Africa, joined Nov 2005, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12099 times:

Im just interested to know what is the news on the QF/SA codeshare have they decided to call it a day and will SAA carry on flying the route or will QF take the route over. Will we maybe see the daily SYD-JNB flight become SYD-PER-JNB

User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 11957 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 8):
QR really have pushed hard into PER and seem to be doing well.

What do you mean with that? They haven't started flying here yet, so we can't really say they are doing well, unless you have booking numbers?

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 7):
I severly doubt that VA had any serious plans to do so, sorry to say.

Was refering to Virgin Atlantic.

http://www.virgin-atlantic.com/tridion/images/787nov_tcm4-523607.pdf

A bit out of date, I know, this came a after the inital press release, where PER and HNL fall into the "consideration" bracket (MEL is on the list of routes).

I don't see it happening in the current climate, but you never know. VS would be stupid to not consider it for the future. Anyway, one can be hopeful.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11850 times:

The biggest issue with PER-LHR is that the market for these flights is on the East Coast. There might be a few pax in PER, but the simple fact that 90% of the population lives east of Perth removes any non-stop competitive advantage. The market for business travellers going to Europe is virtually non-existent in Perth, which has much closer ties to Asia.

Once the non-stop advantage to gone, there's not much left. The time saving would be minimal (ie 16-17 hours PER-LHR, plus 3-4 hours SYD-PER, plus 1-2 hours transit) and the operating costs would make it a very difficult route to sell when there are equally competitive alternatives via Asia and the ME, especially in Y. The market isn't there for all-J flights.

I don't see nonstop Australia-Europe until we start seeing orbital flights...

As for the future of PER -- the NEO/MAX will bring a lot of opportunities for expansion. PER is a pretty small market, so I struggle to see how much long existing growth can be sustained. Longer range NB's could potentially pave the way for a lot of growth further into Asia, which is Perth's trading region...


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11832 times:

I rather do a stop on Australian soil after that hard long journey, the domestic flight will feel like a breeze  

User currently offlinePITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3256 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 11701 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 2):
The other point, Perth is still a limited market given it's isolation, even with a growing population. It likely lacks the base of the eastern states to sustain higher longer term growth.

But its this isolation which gives it a high propensity for air travel. As long as its population continues to grow, which it will, then so will PER.



FLYi
User currently offlineeaglefarm4 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 11461 times:

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 9):

Can't get CASA approval to fly to Australia.


User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 11328 times:

PER-NRT, PER-PVG, PER-ICN and PER-PEK could all be great 787 routes.

User currently offlineCXB77L From Australia, joined Feb 2009, 2694 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 10548 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CHAT OPERATOR

Quoting sweair (Reply 1):
Would a 77L be able to do LHR-PER nonstop today?

LHR-PER is no sweat for the 77L. PER-LHR is, but it can still be done. Great Circle distance between PER-LHR is 7829nm. According to the payload/range chart, the 77L can fly approximately 7600nm with a full payload, so there'll definitely be some payload penalties on that route - especially when you take into account prevailing winds.

But as others have said, whether or not it's viable is a different story.



Boeing 777 fanboy
User currently offlinesydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 3189 posts, RR: 20
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 10473 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12):
The market for business travellers going to Europe is virtually non-existent in Perth, which has much closer ties to Asia.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. As an example, Rio's headquarters are in London and it's cash cow Iron Ore headquarters is in Perth. Along with all of the foreign funds managers that would start off their trips in PER I'd say there would be a steady stream of high yielding business pax that a direct service would be attractive to.

Quoting Ben175 (Thread starter):
What about services to the USA? Japan? China? India?

The USA I can't see. The range and the demand just isn't there. You will defintiely see increased service from China as the Chinese carriers build out their hubs just as the other Asian carriers have and add the Perth spoke. Japan I can't really see coming back unless Jetstar can be persuaded. India is interesting although without significant Indian Resource Investments I suspect traffic would be relatively low yielding. That along with AI not even being organised enough to serve SYD or MEL, let alone an even closer market makes me think India is longer term rather than shorter.

Quoting Ben175 (Thread starter):
what is next for PER?

Infrastructure building and LOTS of it! New Terminals, expanded taxiways and runways, more aircraft parking bays etc etc etc. It's needed right now just to service what PER already has before we start taking growth into account!


User currently offlinecarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2979 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 10228 times:

Quoting sydscott (Reply 18):
Japan I can't really see coming back unless Jetstar can be persuaded.

Did QF cut PER-NRT? If they did, since when?
Tokyo is about it when it comes to anything from Perth.


User currently offlineweebie From Australia, joined Dec 2009, 202 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 10138 times:

People here underestimate travel to Europe from Perth. Perth has a seriously large amount of UK expats.

The SAA QF codeshare will be interesting. I suspect.

Ethiad are coming to Perth in November will be announced shortly. Kenya Airways are coming here in a few years as well.

I doubt NRT will commence though that route has been doomed for years and the Tsumani gave QF teh excuse to get rid of it, after the state government convinced them to keep it.


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 10121 times:

Quoting sweair (Reply 13):
I rather do a stop on Australian soil after that hard long journey, the domestic flight will feel like a breeze

Yup me too.

Quoting PITrules (Reply 14):
But its this isolation which gives it a high propensity for air travel. As long as its population continues to grow, which it will, then so will PER.

Absolutely, PER airport is basically used like a bus/ train station, if you are leaving Perth you are flying, there is no other practical means of transport.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12):
The biggest issue with PER-LHR is that the market for these flights is on the East Coast. There might be a few pax in PER, but the simple fact that 90% of the population lives east of Perth removes any non-stop competitive advantage. The market for business travellers going to Europe is virtually non-existent in Perth, which has much closer ties to Asia.

Yes, yes, the 10% of us that live in Perth are well used to this patronising Eastern states attitude. 10% is STILL 2 million people which is still a lot of people. I personally would pay a little bit extra to avoid a plane change in Asia. People fly with a lot of toys these days and a transpacific 14 hours or PER-LHR 17 hours wouldn't make a great deal of difference.

There is no incentive on airlines to fly this route non stop, QF could do it but are cutting investment and routes, VA well possibly, they did give SYD-JNB a go for a while but without much success. SQ, EK or EY really want to take traffic to their hubs. Until someone takes the punt on the route with a 77L we are not going to know how successful the route would be I really believe that it could be viable, the traffic definitely there costs as always is the problem.



BV
User currently offlineweebie From Australia, joined Dec 2009, 202 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 10092 times:

VA have already indicated that the PER LHR is a route they are looking at. this was about 2 years ago though.

User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 9978 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
VA well possibly

The problem I see with Virgin Australia is that a PER-LHR undercuts their EY partnership, which has a hub almost right in line for that route. Don't think EY would be happy seeing VA fly over and past them.

But maybe EY will be happy enough servicing the other European destinations and allowing VA to fly PER-LHR. However, VA would first need the right aircraft, so this would be many years down the line at best.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlinebyronicle6 From Australia, joined Oct 2011, 463 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 9877 times:

Quoting sweair (Reply 13):
I rather do a stop on Australian soil after that hard long journey, the domestic flight will feel like a breeze

Problem with PER, is that connecting pax to SYD,MEL,BNE,ADL etc have to change terminals between International and domestic



Travel is my thing
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 25, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 10073 times:

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 23):
The problem I see with Virgin Australia is that a PER-LHR undercuts their EY partnership, which has a hub almost right in line for that route. Don't think EY would be happy seeing VA fly over and past them.

Thats the problem with alliances, they stifle competition. They are effectively an agreement bot to compete and operate anti competitive price fixing mechanisms which do not benefit the consumer.

Quoting weebie (Reply 22):
VA have already indicated that the PER LHR is a route they are looking at. this was about 2 years ago though.

A bit longer ago than that, when people still believed the 787 hype.



BV
User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 26, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9281 times:

Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 24):
Problem with PER, is that connecting pax to SYD,MEL,BNE,ADL etc have to change terminals between International and domestic

By the time Virgin Australia had aircraft capable of LHR-PER non-stop, they should have moved into their new facility at the International Airport. International to Domestic connections with VA should be no worse than anywhere else in Australia, and hopefully will actually be good!

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9407 times:

VA keeps being raised in relation to Virgin Atlantic. The code is VS.

If EY does arrive in PER, not quite sure it won't be a bloodbath. 4x daily gulf flights for a population of 2 million is going to be a stretch, along with all the Asian flights.

Given that current business conditions are worsening by the day, PER is certainly the most exposed market in this country to a mining slow down. History shows just how volatile the booms are for WA. I certainly wouldn't be as upbeat as the WA govt seems to be.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 28, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9393 times:

Quoting sydscott (Reply 18):
Rio's headquarters are in London and it's cash cow Iron Ore headquarters is in Perth

But it's Australian HQ is in MEL... In all likelihood, the Perth offices report to Melbourne who then report to London.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
Yes, yes, the 10% of us that live in Perth are well used to this patronising Eastern states attitude. 10% is STILL 2 million people which is still a lot of people. I personally would pay a little bit extra to avoid a plane change in Asia. People fly with a lot of toys these days and a transpacific 14 hours or PER-LHR 17 hours wouldn't make a great deal of difference.

It's not a patronising Eastern attitude at all. Sure, there might be a large British population (as there is in any Australian city), but this is tourist traffic. This population isn't going to fill F/J in the way that an airline operating this flight would need it to. The vast majority of Perth's corporate traffic is headed for Asia (of course there are some going to Europe), while the services, financial, health sectors etc which are based on the East Coast send large numbers of corporate passengers to Europe.

A large British population isn't going to sustain nonstop services -- they need a big and steady corporate market. PER is not big enough. The additional cost you'd be willing to pay might not even cover the additional cost of operating such an expensive flight.


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 29, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9332 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 27):
VA keeps being raised in relation to Virgin Atlantic. The code is VS.

Whos talking abit Virgin atlantic? I'm talking about Virgin Australia which technically is still DJ, VS something completly different.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 27):
I certainly wouldn't be as upbeat as the WA govt seems to be.

You would be if you planned on getting re-elected next year.



BV
User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 30, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9293 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 29):
Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 27):VA keeps being raised in relation to Virgin Atlantic. The code is VS.
Whos talking abit Virgin atlantic? I'm talking about Virgin Australia which technically is still DJ, VS something completly different.

There has been talk about both. VS mentioned PER many years ago as a possible 787 destination, while VA has been mentioned here as also being seen as a possibility.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9263 times:

^^ Just as BHP is HQ'ed in MEL. That's where the decisions are made.

PER has many staff for Rio and BHP, but these are usually on the operations roles, not the main executive functions.

The vast majority of the population (around 12 million in NSW and VIC alone) along with a substantially more diversified economy, exists on the East coast. WA is strong currently though, but it's base is weaker in sustaining long term growth.


User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9173 times:

CXFirst and BoeingVista, I was referring to points made earlier with suggested that VA were looking to get 77Ls for PER-LHR. I then suggested that was never going to happen, only to be told that they were referring to Virgin Atlantic. Confusion reins.

To make it clear, I don't see VA on the route at any stage and VS for a long time to come, if at all. As was suggested earlier, lots has changed since the initial statements were made by VS years back and VA has a new stategy based on partnerships.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 33, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9145 times:

Perth has one big disadvantage, few aircraft will have the range and seats to pay for the extra fuel, but the 77L and the 340-500 can make it. Maybe Perth could offer a cheaper tech stop than Bangkok and Singapore? Build some nice hotels near the airport and get some additional business with people who want to sleep after that first leg before going east.

There is no plane in service today with 8000nm range at full capacity, maybe it will take a BWB with super efficient engines 20 years from now to make it possible. If I remember correctly a BWB would have 30% more lift than a tube with wings? This is modern aviations last low hanging fruit. Windows and exits..I know.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 34, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9051 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 29):
Whos talking abit Virgin atlantic? I'm talking about Virgin Australia which technically is still DJ, VS something completly different.

Well technically you're talking about the international arm, which does use the VA code... Only domestic and Tasman flights come under the DJ code.


User currently offlinemaxter From Australia, joined May 2009, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 35, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 8941 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 2):
The other point, Perth is still a limited market given it's isolation, even with a growing population.

But you fail to realize that we have a greater percentage of inhabitants that can afford overseas travel than the rustbelt states...

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
Yes, yes, the 10% of us that live in Perth are well used to this patronising Eastern states attitude. 10% is STILL 2 million people which is still a lot of people.

Absolutely and as I said above, we generally can do more with what we earn... not withstanding the exorbitant pice we pay for coffee  
Quoting byronicle6 (Reply 24):
Problem with PER, is that connecting pax to SYD,MEL,BNE,ADL etc have to change terminals between International and domestic

That won't be the situation for ever, plans to change are afoot... Better late than never.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 28):

But it's Australian HQ is in MEL...

Don't hold your breath...

Quoting qf002 (Reply 28):

It's not a patronising Eastern attitude at all

Yes it certainly is...  



maxter
User currently offlinegrimey From Ireland, joined Jun 2005, 459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 36, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8176 times:

Will Boeing or Airbus make a plane that can do DUB - PER with so many Irish people in Perth (including myself) the fastest way is one stop with EK but I did the EI DUB-LHR & QF LHR-SIN-PER back in January and its not so bad, 19 hours flying in a 24 period with a great service from QF

User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 37, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8065 times:

Quoting maxter (Reply 35):
But you fail to realize that we have a greater percentage of inhabitants that can afford overseas travel than the rustbelt states...

The percentage is utterly irrelevant... 10% of 2 million people in Perth is still a vastly smaller market than 5% of 6 million people in Sydney. AND it fails to recognise the importance of higher yielding corporate fares, which are what sustains a service such as this one.

Quoting maxter (Reply 35):
Yes it certainly is

Not at all. I have made a judgement based on the information I have available to me...I love Perth and WA, have quite a few good friends who live over there and have been over twice in the last 12 months with another trip planned for later this year... I am not in any way denying the importance of service to PER, or stating broadly that if the East Coast can't have it then PER can't either...

A nonstop PER-LHR would only really cater for PER-LHR passegners. There is simply no advantage for passengers east of Perth. The suggestion that a city of less than 2 million, which doesn't have strong corporate links to LHR and is 17 hours flying time away can support nonstop service is a bit ridiculous.

What other successful ULH route is there that is at all comparable. Virtually all those in the top 20 are either very strong corporate routes (ie SIN-EWR) or major hub-to-hub (ie SYD-DFW). Others, like ATL-JNB, are highly dependant on cargo, which would be ruled out for PER-LHR. ULH is a hard ask at the best of times, let alone on a route as marginal as this!!


User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7950 times:

^^ Very true.

Maxter, people from WA have said for years that the HQ of Rio and BHP would move to Perth... Waiting, waiting....

Theres very compelling reasons to maintain the current setup, so maybe I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for that to change  


User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 39, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 7594 times:

Has CZ raised frequency on PER-CAN-PEK yet? I haven't read anything about it, but I know there was plans.

User currently offlineweebie From Australia, joined Dec 2009, 202 posts, RR: 0
Reply 40, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 7401 times:

BHP and Rio will never move to Perth. The talent locally can't compete.

I think Scoot is a good candidate for Perth


User currently offlineshnoob940 From Australia, joined Sep 2008, 188 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 7389 times:

Just a question to do with Perth - how long has DJ been operating the 1778/1781 service to Launceston? Apart from the Fremantle footy club I can't see enough traffic to have a 738 operating it...


A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A388 733 734 735 737 738 739 743 744 762 763 773 788 E170 E190 Q400
User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 42, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7348 times:

Quoting shnoob940 (Reply 41):
Just a question to do with Perth - how long has DJ been operating the 1778/1781 service to Launceston? Apart from the Fremantle footy club I can't see enough traffic to have a 738 operating it...

I didn't even know DJ operated to LST? Maybe they have operated a few charter flights recently.

Quoting weebie (Reply 40):
I think Scoot is a good candidate for Perth

I hope Scoot replaces Tiger on PER-SIN personally.


User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 43, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7329 times:

Quoting shnoob940 (Reply 41):
Just a question to do with Perth - how long has DJ been operating the 1778/1781 service to Launceston? Apart from the Fremantle footy club I can't see enough traffic to have a 738 operating it...

Think this is a one off for the footy match. Part of DJ's contract with the AFL.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5946 posts, RR: 5
Reply 44, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7276 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 34):
Only domestic and Tasman flights come under the DJ code.

Well if you're going to nit-pick then so will I ... neither DPS nor HKT are domestic or Tasman routes  

I know that this is going to be bleeding obvious, but if London was in the Middle East then it would have happened years ago. Similarly if fuel was half its current costs then I wouldn't rule it out.

Unfortunately ULH is virtually impossible to make money on at the best of times, let alone with oil well north of $100 a barrel. The only way that PER-LHR would work would be if BHP or Rio signed a contract for literally the entire J/F capacity. Then maybe...

Before any one accuses me of being East Coast centric I'll say the same for SYD-JFK: Macquarie or some other large institutional bank would need to underwrite the front of the plane.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 45, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 7035 times:

Say that the BWB is built and that could lower fuel costs at least 30% from the frame and even more with the engines of that era. Would people settle for less windows if really long flights would be more affordable? A BWB is wide enough to make the cabin very spacious for long range flights? Say the outer parts that experience high Gs could be areas that only were allowed during cruise.

Or would the outer space have cargo?


User currently offlineFlyingsottsman From Australia, joined Oct 2010, 567 posts, RR: 0
Reply 46, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6694 times:

Quoting weebie (Reply 20):
People here underestimate travel to Europe from Perth. Perth has a seriously large amount of UK expats.

Yes there is a huge ex pat UK population living in Perth I often woundered why BA axed Perth all those years ago.

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 42):
I didn't even know DJ operated to LST? Maybe they have operated a few charter flights recently

They only fly Peth to Launceston when either Fremantle or the West Coast Eagles are fixtured to play Hawthorn there orther than that if you live in Perth and want to go to Launceston you have to go change planes in Melbourne. I flew home to Melbourne from Perth one night via Launceston because the Eagles were playing in LST 'that weekend wow what a long flight that was!


User currently offlineshnoob940 From Australia, joined Sep 2008, 188 posts, RR: 0
Reply 47, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 6361 times:

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 46):

I went on to the website on Friday, and 1781 was open to bookings for $389. If you were a diehard Freo fan you could meet all the players through this!  

gibbo



A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A388 733 734 735 737 738 739 743 744 762 763 773 788 E170 E190 Q400
User currently offlineeaglefarm4 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 48, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 6211 times:

This document is the most recent covering the 20 years 2009-2029 for all the capital city airports

http://www.google.com.au/search?q=au...=11259e1e762a6894&biw=1024&bih=605

This shows BNE and PER as the fastest growing over that period.

Move down to the topic pdf ACCESSING OUR AIRPORTS.

[Edited 2012-05-20 18:12:08]

User currently offlinefiscal From Australia, joined Oct 2009, 337 posts, RR: 0
Reply 49, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 6151 times:

Quoting SA744 (Reply 10):
Will we maybe see the daily SYD-JNB flight become SYD-PER-JNB

As indeed it was not so many years ago.....


User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 759 posts, RR: 5
Reply 50, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6003 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12):
PER is a pretty small market, so I struggle to see how much long existing growth can be sustained.

People have been predicting the end of the boom for the last 5 or 6 years, meanwhile air travel in WA continues to grow at an astonishing rate.

Quoting maxter (Reply 35):
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
Yes, yes, the 10% of us that live in Perth are well used to this patronising Eastern states attitude. 10% is STILL 2 million people which is still a lot of people.

Absolutely and as I said above, we generally can do more with what we earn... not withstanding the exorbitant pice we pay for coffee

Its all about disposable income and wealth. Many of the states on the eastern seaboard are technically in recession while WA is growing at more than 6% per year. WA is also home to some of the highest paid workers in the world - many of whom work on fly-in fly-out rosters. These people think nothing of spending their R&R breaks overseas in Bali or beyond.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 44):
The only way that PER-LHR would work would be if BHP or Rio signed a contract for literally the entire J/F capacity

Why all this obsession with Rio and BHP ? Perth is home to more than half of the companies listed on the ASX - many of these are junior or midcap mining companies. These are the ones who have to do investor roadshows to London and other places (China) to raise funds and they generate much of the business traffic ex Perth.


Regards,
StickShaker


User currently offlinemaxter From Australia, joined May 2009, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 51, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 5772 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 50):
Why all this obsession with Rio and BHP ?

Not to mention Woodside, Chevron, FMG, Lend Lease, Shell, Exxon Mobil, Alcoa, Apache Energy, Inpex, ConocoPhillips and many others.

It's amazing just how little the people on the other side of the Nullabor know of what is going on in this state...

Probably not a bad thing either... There's already probably a few too many cars with Victorian and NSW number plates on these roads  



maxter
User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 52, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 5705 times:

I think people here are forgetting that we are talking about a airport that is really struggling big time with the traffic that it currently has to the point that flights are getting 'slot times' for departure and arrival, right down to minutes, for eg: Today we were 'slot restricted' by 1 minute leaving KTA this afternoon.
PER really needs to hurry up and push along with expantion first before ramping up anymore services from anymore Airlines.
Over the last 2 years i have seen some services double and in some cases tripple in demand, eg: (QF only)
PER-ZNE on some days alone QF service this destination 7 times a day on 738's
PER-KTA on some days 11 services a day, 10 on 738 and 1 on 717, this is also the case for PHE.
The is talk of KTA getting serviced by a daily 763.
2 years ago, ZNE was only serviced by 717.
But i have to say it, these services do heavily rely on the mining sector.



Next Trip: PER-DPS-KUL-BKK-HKT-CNX-BKK-SIN-PER
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 53, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5671 times:

Quoting maxter (Reply 51):
Not to mention Woodside, Chevron, FMG, Lend Lease, Shell, Exxon Mobil, Alcoa, Apache Energy, Inpex, ConocoPhillips and many others.

Just a few notes:

Lend Lease has their HQ in Sydney.

Shell has their HQ in Melbourne.

Exxon has their HQ in Melbourne.

Nobody is denying that WA has a booming and important economy. But the facts remains that:

NSW contributed $420bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
Victoria contributed $305bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
Queensland contributed $250bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
WA contributed $187bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.

While you might argue that it is GSP per capita that matters more than the contribution to National GDP -- remember that the Northern Territory, which is considered to be at the lower end of Australian wealth spectrum, has a higher GSP per capita than NSW, Vic, QLD, SA and Tasmania. It's a skewed statistic.

As of December 2011, the headquarters of the top 50 companies listed on the ASX were located as follows:

Adelaide -- 1
Brisbane -- 2
Perth -- 4
Melbourne -- 16
Sydney -- 25
(International -- 2)

It's incredible how little those in WA realise that we in the East contribute...

Remember, I am all for a wide array of services out of PER. It's isolation from the rest of the country means that, in my mind, it should receive service that is equal to that we can access here.

BUT it is still a much smaller city and economy than those on the East Coast. On the topic of PER-LHR, Europe is all but irrelevant to most of Perth's economic activity. The funding for the WA economy comes from Asia, and the bulk of the state's production goes straight back north to Asia.


User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 54, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 5586 times:

^^ Good analysis.

Overall, as you stated, Asia is the real focus of WA's economic strength. Further links to Asia can definitely be expected, with carriers such as EK, QR and possibly EY at some point to give valuable connection opportunities to Europe and the Middle East.

Funny that there seems so much of a dislike of the east for WA people. Remember though, the east has been flooded by our Western cousins for years, so it's about time we shared the love  


User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 759 posts, RR: 5
Reply 55, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 5545 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 53):
Nobody is denying that WA has a booming and important economy. But the facts remains that:

NSW contributed $420bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
Victoria contributed $305bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
Queensland contributed $250bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
WA contributed $187bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.

Contribution to merchandise exports will tell a very different story - Australia's wealth is export dependent. GDP is not always the best metric to see what is happening. WA and QLD are growing while the rest of the nation is either treading water or sinking slightly.

Australia survived the GFC thanks to the massive export revenues from the resources industry - not the relative GDP of NSW or Victoria. I know this is a sore point with many on the east coast who might be doing it tough but thats the reality.   


Regards,
StickShaker


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 56, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 5530 times:

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 52):
PER really needs to hurry up and push along with expantion first before ramping up anymore services from anymore Airlines.

Yes it does but this is Australia and we would rather invest in sports stadia than Airports; the $1bn totally pointless stadium at Burswood, completely funded by WA taxpayers, will be completed before the terminal reorganisation.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 53):
Nobody is denying that WA has a booming and important economy. But the facts remains that:

NSW contributed $420bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
Victoria contributed $305bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
Queensland contributed $250bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.
WA contributed $187bn to the National GDP in 2010-11.

And on your own figures we can see that on a per capita basis WA contributes nearly twice as much to Australia's GDP as NSW. We are now richer than the eastern states and have a higher disposable income.

Quoting sweair (Reply 45):
Say that the BWB is built and that could lower fuel costs at least 30% from the frame and even more with the engines of that era. Would people settle for less windows if really long flights would be more affordable? A BWB is wide enough to make the cabin very spacious for long range flights? Say the outer parts that experience high Gs could be areas that only were allowed during cruise.

Or would the outer space have cargo?

People don't really spend a lot of time looking out of windows these days anyway, put a decent sized screen in front of them with the option of an outside view and they would be happy.

Quoting shnoob940 (Reply 47):
I went on to the website on Friday, and 1781 was open to bookings for $389. If you were a die hard Freo fan you could meet all the players through this!

gibbo

If you were a die hard fan you would probably know you can meet them all at port beach where they do a weekly workout



BV
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 57, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 5511 times:

I'm loving the smugness those in WA seem to have in it's boom times  

I think by now, if anything has been learnt from the past, WA should be anything but smug on the rollercoaster that your state has experienced. Boom and bust has been far too common unfortunately.

A lower AUD will actually boost the Vic and NSW economies, given the differences in the economic base they operate from.

Oh well, we will wait and see ..


User currently offlinemaxter From Australia, joined May 2009, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 58, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 5504 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 56):
And on your own figures we can see that on a per capita basis WA contributes nearly twice as much to Australia's GDP as NSW.

I was just about to say exactly that, but you beat me to it. Recently there was an interesting metric annunciated by the producer of large pleasure craft being sold here in Australia. He said that he was selling more in WA than he was in the rest of Australia, even though he started business on the Eastern Seaboard. In fact he said that if it wasn't for WA, he would have "gone under" almost 2 years ago.

We certainly have more disposal income here on a per capita basis.



maxter
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 59, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 5503 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 55):
Contribution to merchandise exports will tell a very different story - Australia's wealth is export dependent. GDP is not always the best metric to see what is happening. WA and QLD are growing while the rest of the nation is either treading water or sinking slightly.

It is very true that WA exports a large proportion of our total national exports -- I'm not denying this. WA is the origin of 40-45% of our exports IIRC. But that is NOT an indicator of the economic activity in the region. It is an indicator that the production is undertaken in that region, but that is all.

While I agree that this high level of production has drawn a great deal of economic activity into the state and to Perth and has boosted wealth, the GDP is a far better indicator of WHERE the business is being done in this particular context. The factory might be in WA, but that's pretty irrelevant if the people who are running it are 3-4 hours away in Sydney or Melbourne.

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 55):
Australia survived the GFC thanks to the massive export revenues from the resources industry - not the relative GDP of NSW or Victoria. I know this is a sore point with many on the east coast who might be doing it tough but thats the reality

You can thank us for running the whole operation any time you want  


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 60, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5445 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 59):
But that is NOT an indicator of the economic activity in the region. It is an indicator that the production is undertaken in that region, but that is all.

In this instance it kinda is, (on your argument) it may be run by 2 blokes in Sydney with a pot of cash but the billions of dollars in investment and tens of thousand of highly paid workers are flowing into WA so the investment money is spent in WA and the workers also spend their money in WA, what is that if not economic activity? Seriously if you look at the local press and its another day another billion dollar project announced.

The bean-counters live out east, so what..

Quoting qf002 (Reply 59):
You can thank us for running the whole operation any time you want

We will, just give us the chance to vote for succession and it will be so long and thanks for all the fish  



BV
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8663 posts, RR: 10
Reply 61, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 5434 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12):
The biggest issue with PER-LHR is that the market for these flights is on the East Coast. There might be a few pax in PER, but the simple fact that 90% of the population lives east of Perth removes any non-stop competitive advantage. The market for business travellers going to Europe is virtually non-existent in Perth, which has much closer ties to Asia.

I suppose that's why EK, QR, EY, all want out of this market   


User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 759 posts, RR: 5
Reply 62, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5286 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 59):
But that is NOT an indicator of the economic activity in the region. It is an indicator that the production is undertaken in that region, but that is all.

I'm pretty sure ABS and ABARE measure the activity in the location it occurs. Another metric I forgot to mention is the size of the investment pipeline (we are all quite fond of all these statistics at the moment).

Quoting qf002 (Reply 59):
You can thank us for running the whole operation any time you want

We have suffered years of jibes over here from our eastern states cousins so we are going to enjoy our time in the sun.  


Regards,
StickShaker


User currently offlinefiscal From Australia, joined Oct 2009, 337 posts, RR: 0
Reply 63, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5282 times:

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 52):
But i have to say it, these services do heavily rely on the mining sector.

True, and this causes a rush hour a couple of times a day so that flights coincide with mining company roster schedules. On my daily morning walk these planes have become familiar "friends" and when one is not in the right slot, you wonder where the hell is it.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 56):
Yes it does but this is Australia and we would rather invest in sports stadia than Airports; the $1bn totally pointless stadium at Burswood, completely funded by WA taxpayers, will be completed before the terminal reorganisation.

We must remember that Perth Airport is a private concern. The state government is, however, trying to cooperate with the airport owners to make things like the road infrastructure better. In fact a major project to improve traffic flow around the airport was announced a couple of days ago.

As for a stadium, time will tell. What would Melbourne be without the MCG? - Boring  


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 64, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 5169 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 56):
And on your own figures we can see that on a per capita basis WA contributes nearly twice as much to Australia's GDP as NSW. We are now richer than the eastern states and have a higher disposable income.

As I pointed out, the Northern Territory also has a significantly higher GSP per capita than NSW, Victoria, Queensland etc. To suggest that this shows that residents of the NT have more money to spend is ridiculous, given that it generally has the poorest socioeconomic status of all Australian states/territories.

As I posted:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 53):
the Northern Territory, which is considered to be at the lower end of Australian wealth spectrum, has a higher GSP per capita than NSW, Vic, QLD, SA and Tasmania. It's a skewed statistic.

It is also irrelevant if much of the money is heading back East. I'm not saying that this is necessarily the case (I have no idea and can't find any figures/stats to support this), I'm simply pointing out that no conclusion can be made based on GSP per capita...

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 60):
In this instance it kinda is, (on your argument) it may be run by 2 blokes in Sydney with a pot of cash but the billions of dollars in investment and tens of thousand of highly paid workers are flowing into WA so the investment money is spent in WA and the workers also spend their money in WA, what is that if not economic activity?
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 60):
The bean-counters live out east, so what..

It is relevant if the wealth generated isn't staying in WA. I'll draw attention to my response at Reply 59:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 59):
While I agree that this high level of production has drawn a great deal of economic activity into the state and to Perth and has boosted wealth

Not denying that WA's economy has been massively boosted over the past few years, I'm simply pointing out that the benefits are not being made in WA and staying in WA. A lot of the investment is flowing in from the East and from Overseas, which means that much of the money made is flowing back to the East and Overseas.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 61):
I suppose that's why EK, QR, EY, all want out of this market

Only one of your three examples actually operates to PER at this point...

Can I also point out that:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 53):
Nobody is denying that WA has a booming and important economy.

But, in the context of aviation:

1. The boom will not last forever. Whether it is over in 6 months or 6 years, it will end.
2. The PER market is still small. Regardless of how much disposable income the population has, the number of people able to afford travel is still a smaller number than those in the larger centres on the East Coast.
3. The WA Economy has closer links to Asia than to Europe.

So, therefore (and shock horror -- bringing it back to the topic!  ):

1. PER-LHR is not a sustainable route (it would take a lot of work to build up, by which time the boom could very well be over, and the market is not large enough to sustain it).
2. I would expect growth to be into Asia.

And this is all I have been arguing for through this entire thread...


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 65, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 5111 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 64):

1. PER-LHR is not a sustainable route (it would take a lot of work to build up, by which time the boom could very well be over, and the market is not large enough to sustain it).

Ok back on topic, rather than just say its not possible do you have any figures to back this up? Can anyone give us ballpark figures on how much freight a 777 could haul over this route at say 280 seats so that we could work out if there is any revenue potential at all.



BV
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5946 posts, RR: 5
Reply 66, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 5090 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 60):
just give us the chance to vote for succession and it will be so long and thanks for all the fish

I wasn't planning on wading into the East v West debate, but succession would require a Constitutional amendment. Good luck with that...




"The proposed law for the alteration thereof must be passed by an absolute majority of each House of the Parliament...

And if in a majority of the States a majority of the electors voting approve the proposed law, and if a majority of all the electors voting also approve the proposed law, it shall be presented to the Governor‑General for the Queen's assent." (s128)



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 67, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 5057 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
I wasn't planning on wading into the East v West debate, but succession would require a Constitutional amendment. Good luck with that...

Thats a silly argument, if WA voted by a large majority to succeed and this was then overturned by the bulk of the states voting to keep us in that would just prove the point that is made in the west that we are a colony being ruled from afar and would cause no end of trouble for the Australian federation.

Besides, we should aim higher and take NT and SA with us  



BV
User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 759 posts, RR: 5
Reply 68, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 4968 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 64):
But, in the context of aviation:

1. The boom will not last forever. Whether it is over in 6 months or 6 years, it will end.
2. The PER market is still small. Regardless of how much disposable income the population has, the number of people able to afford travel is still a smaller number than those in the larger centres on the East Coast.
3. The WA Economy has closer links to Asia than to Europe.

I will address your points but I'll try to keep it within the context of aviation - just need to lay a little groundwork.

1. You need to closely examine just what is going to happen when the "boom" ends. The current boom (horrible name) is very different in nature to previous booms as it is being driven by the urbanisation of approx 400 million people in China over what is expected to be a 20 year or longer period. The demand shock has pushed commodity prices to once in a lifetime levels - these will subside once the supply side catches up but the timeline may be staggered for different commodities. Once prices subside the window of opportunity for new developments will reduce however existing operations will continue - particularly given that many Australian (mining) operations exist within the lowest quartile for cash costs. Production will continue and the many thousands of fly-in fly-out jobs will remain - they won't disappear overnight.

Around the same time as some mineral commodity prices subside there will be several massive LNG projects ramping up - these will create thousand of development (construction) jobs which will absorb any lost from completed iron ore expansions. Again the numbers of jobs will be in the thousands and they will all be fly-in fly-out. Once a final investment decision is taken on these massive projects and contracts are let then the process continues until construction is completed and the project commissioned - this can be anywhere from 5 to 10 years for large projects before you add in delays. You cant just pull the plug on these developments overnight just because the stock market gets a few wobbles.

Once large projects are commissioned they must produce - they will have obligations to fill sales contracts (and retire debt) for up to 20 years (in the case of LNG). Again - a large component of the fly-in fly-out work force are production staff - they will always be there.

The current crisis in Europe may dampen things somewhat due to a constrained capital supply and other reasons but we are not going to see a collapse in commodity demand overnight - this is the part that most people don't understand.
Even in a no growth environment existing operations will continue. From an aviation perspective the thousands of fly-in fly-out jobs will remain and these are what are driving pax increases through PER. These are the cashed up workers who are also big spenders on leisure air travel.

Unless the world comes to an end nothing will stop overnight and there will be plenty of activity and aviation traffic for many years to come - even if the investment climate deteriorates.

2. Yes - PER air traffic is smaller than SYD or MEL - the point we are making is that it has grown rapidly and it will not collapse back to pre-boom levels.

3. Yes - Asia is our backyard and will be a healthy source of growth.


Regards,
StickShaker


User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5828 posts, RR: 6
Reply 69, posted (2 years 7 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 4957 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
I wasn't planning on wading into the East v West debate, but succession would require a Constitutional amendment. Good luck with that...

Sorry RyanairGuru but you are wrong on this one. All that needs to happen is for the WA Parliament to repeal the Act of Accession to the Commonwealth of Australia AND to have it approved by a majority of voters in that state. The other states are not involved.

It has actually been done by WA in the past, in the 1920s IIRC. The repeal of the Act was passed, but it failed in the subsequent referendum and so did not satisfy the conditions to become law. The Commonwealth of Australia was never intended to an "indissoluble union". Unlike some other countries we can't have a civil war between the states because if a state can't get a referendum passed its own people they are not going to go to war and if they can get it passed they rest of the country has no grounds for objecting.

Of course no telling what the reaction would be in Canberra or the other states if it actually happened.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlinemaxter From Australia, joined May 2009, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 4672 times:

Quoting gemuser (Reply 69):
Of course no telling what the reaction would be in Canberra or the other states if it actually happened.

Yes, how does a state withhold 60% of GST revenue (that is used to prop up the rust belt) if it doesn't see it in the first place?

Just imagine what our airport's/aviation sector would look like if we had all that additional income.



maxter
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 71, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4605 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 65):
Ok back on topic, rather than just say its not possible do you have any figures to back this up? Can anyone give us ballpark figures on how much freight a 777 could haul over this route at say 280 seats so that we could work out if there is any revenue potential at all.


Someone else might know, I certainly don't. I'm basing my judgement on what the rest of the industry is doing, and basic logic...

I do know that a route this length (and with these winds) would need the auxiliary fuel tanks fitted, which would leave virtually no space for cargo once pax/bags are on board.

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 68):

This could go on forever... I think we just have to agree that our views differ on this topic, and move on.

The thing that is important for the purposes of this discussion is that we both believe that aviation traffic in/out of PER is going to continue to grow, at least for the next little while.

I don't believe that the PER market is suited to nonstop service to LHR. You (and others) seem to think it is. At least we both agree that Asian services will continue to grow  
Quoting maxter (Reply 70):
Yes, how does a state withhold 60% of GST revenue (that is used to prop up the rust belt) if it doesn't see it in the first place?

Just imagine what our airport's/aviation sector would look like if we had all that additional income.


Hey, I'm with you there... NSW is cheated out of GST revenue as much as WA is...

And I doubt that your airports and aviation sector would look any better, given that it is an entirely privately run industry...


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 72, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 4577 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 71):
Hey, I'm with you there... NSW is cheated out of GST revenue as much as WA is...

Okay so which state actually wins with GST? Or are the feds running a huge pyramid scheme and syphoning off the cash into a Swiss account?



BV
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 73, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4521 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 72):
Okay so which state actually wins with GST? Or are the feds running a huge pyramid scheme and syphoning off the cash into a Swiss account?

Haha, you never know what they're up to   Tasmania is the biggest winner, and gets a lot more back than they put in. A lot of the money also seems to go to the Northern Territory and South Australia. Queensland also gets more back than they put in from memory.


User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5828 posts, RR: 6
Reply 74, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4476 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 73):
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 72):
Okay so which state actually wins with GST? Or are the feds running a huge pyramid scheme and syphoning off the cash into a Swiss account?

Haha, you never know what they're up to Tasmania is the biggest winner, and gets a lot more back than they put in. A lot of the money also seems to go to the Northern Territory and South Australia. Queensland also gets more back than they put in from memory.

When talking about TOTAL Commonwealth grants to the states (not just GST) then ALL states EXCEPT NSW & VIC get more in grants than they pay in tax to the Commonwealth. In fact they are called "claimant states" in Grants Council documents (except QLD), meaning that they are supposed to get more than they contribute.

NB: I'm talking total payments to the Commonwealth, not just GST.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 75, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4458 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 71):

I do know that a route this length (and with these winds) would need the auxiliary fuel tanks fitted, which would leave virtually no space for cargo once pax/bags are on board.

Ok, lets go another way then, PER-LHR @ 7800nm is well within the current design range of an A380 (8350nm), and this range should be boosted by another 450nm with weight savings, MTOW increases and engine PIP's by 2013. Seat mile costs on the A380 are second to none plus there is the floor space to make the journey more comfortable, might even get some decent use out of a private suite  

400-450 PAX daily direct to LHR on the most efficient long hauler ever produced.



BV
User currently offlinetayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1135 posts, RR: 0
Reply 76, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4445 times:

if WA wanted to leave the federation: let them.

Don't think the government in Canberra wouldn't make it excruciating for WA to leave: they have every right to - a century of cross-subsiding the state's post-federation development would and absolutely should require WA to give back something to the rest of the states for the lost century.

They'll come back crying when Australia is slow to allow free trade between the new nation of WA and Australia, when labour and capital is restricted across borders, when WA takes on its share of the national debt and the commodity boom ends.

Sometimes the rhetoric from west of the Nullabour is just a little too "Wild west" in the wrong century.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 77, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4410 times:

Quoting gemuser (Reply 74):

Thanks gemuser  
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 75):

   No offense, but that's all I can do...


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 78, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4381 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 77):
No offense, but that's all I can do...

Meh, I take no offense I'm used to being a man ahead of my times  



BV
User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 79, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4353 times:

I think it's fair to say the Sydneysiders commenting in this thread are just jealous we got QR first.  

Kidding, of course!


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 80, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4316 times:

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 79):

Hahaha -- we don't have space for QR over here because all the A380's take up too much room  


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 81, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4202 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 80):
Hahaha -- we don't have space for QR over here because all the A380's take up too much room

No, you don't have space for QR because NSW is hopeless at planning infrastructure.



BV
User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 759 posts, RR: 5
Reply 82, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4127 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 81):
Quoting qf002 (Reply 80):
Hahaha -- we don't have space for QR over here because all the A380's take up too much room

No, you don't have space for QR because NSW is hopeless at planning infrastructure.

Sydneysiders will one day be catching a high speed train to CBR to board their flights - now thats classic NSW infrastructure planning.


Regards,
StickShaker


User currently offlineSandgroper From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 80 posts, RR: 0
Reply 83, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 4067 times:

Crazy we are getting all the International services growing but tourists are having to fork out extremely high rates for Hotels as we dont have enough rooms. Occupancy rates are as high as 93% recently! Rooms at $1000 a night...

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/pl...lanced-in-boom-20120522-1z2ok.html



Sandgroper
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 84, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 4063 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 82):
Sydneysiders will one day be catching a high speed train to CBR to board their flights - now thats classic NSW infrastructure planning.

Well I'm all for that given I live in Canberra now... It would be sweet to look out the window and see something a little more substantial than a Q400...

In any case, WA is hardly without their own infrastructure issues... Sandgroper highlights one, and there are plenty more.


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 85, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 4075 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 82):
Sydneysiders will one day be catching a high speed train to CBR to board their flights - now thats classic NSW infrastructure planning.

There is more chance of an A380 service from PER-LHR than a highspeed rail line being built from Sydney to CBR.



BV
User currently offlinefiscal From Australia, joined Oct 2009, 337 posts, RR: 0
Reply 86, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 4054 times:

Quoting tayser (Reply 76):
if WA wanted to leave the federation: let them.

Don't think the government in Canberra wouldn't make it excruciating for WA to leave: they have every right to - a century of cross-subsiding the state's post-federation development would and absolutely should require WA to give back something to the rest of the states for the lost century.

They'll come back crying when Australia is slow to allow free trade between the new nation of WA and Australia, when labour and capital is restricted across borders, when WA takes on its share of the national debt and the commodity boom ends.

Sometimes the rhetoric from west of the Nullabour is just a little too "Wild west" in the wrong century.

Thems be fighting words.....


User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5828 posts, RR: 6
Reply 87, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4028 times:

Quoting fiscal (Reply 86):
Thems be fighting words.....

Take it to NON AV

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 88, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4005 times:

Quoting gemuser (Reply 87):
Take it to NON AV

Yeah, it might be time to wrap this thread up -- mods?


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 89, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4012 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 88):
Yeah, it might be time to wrap this thread up -- mods?

Hang on Sydneysider, maybe some of us would still like to discuss the growth of traffic in Perth?



BV
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 90, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3994 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 89):
Hang on Sydneysider, maybe some of us would still like to discuss the growth of traffic in Perth?

Not that you'd know, given that the last 20 posts have basically been jabs across the Nullabor. The topic veered away from aviation after the first 20-25 posts...


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 91, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3797 times:

Qantas could have received Australia-Europe non-stop A380s next year

Quote:
When Qantas postponed two Airbus A380s to save capital expenditure in the rapidly growing market that its newly separated international division is supposed to address it also walked away from an upgraded version of the giant airliner that could have carried a viable payload non-stop between London and Perth.

Ben Sandilands, a respected aviation journalist, posted an article today that says exactly what I said in post 75. I'm sure that 002 will find it equally as hilarious coming from a journalist who has enough industry credibility as to have been given a tour of the interior of the A350XWB test frame on todays rollout.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...h-london-non-stop-a380s-next-year/



BV
User currently offlineTruemanqld From Australia, joined Feb 2007, 1598 posts, RR: 0
Reply 92, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3732 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 91):

Even if QF received the 2 A380's next year, they wouldn't have been put on PER-LHR. They would have gone on routes like SYD-DFW because they are very likely to be more profitable (thats right, QF is a commercial business). At the moment, QF can funnel PER/AKL(JQ)/MEL/SYD/BNE/ADL/DRW(JQ) (and any JQ passengers from SE Asia) onto 2 daily A380's to LHR. What would they achieve by going via PER? Everyone except PER passengers would have to switch between domestic and international (which is more inconvenient than currently is via SIN), and they lose the SE Asian passengers. QF would look at the current number of passengers going between PER and LHR on all airlines, and would have come to the conclusion that such a route, while it may be profitable (no one will know until its tried), would not be as profitable as routes such as SYD-DFW.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 93, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3672 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 91):

Not quite. A few points:

1. The article admits that such a service would be dependent on passengers connecting from the East Coast.
2. The article admits that routing via Asia is shorter and quicker for customers on the East Coast.
3. The article admits that there would be serious operational concerns (ie lack of diversion airports).
4. The article actually concludes that a route like SYD-DFW would be the far more sensible alternative for QF.

The Airbus charts referred to also fail to consider the headwinds the LHR-PER leg would encounter. These will seriously impair the aircraft's ability to reach PER with a profitable payload.

If anything, I think this article agrees with what the rest of us are saying -- it's not viable.


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 94, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3658 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 93):

If anything, I think this article agrees with what the rest of us are saying -- it's not viable.

Which is presumably why he includes the line

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 91):
upgraded version of the giant airliner that could have carried a viable payload non-stop between London and Perth.

Seriously? You try to twist his words to mean the opposite of what he clearly states.

As for time and distance of east coast connections the comparison he makes is with the old QF 3 stop SYD-PER-BOM-LHR

Quoting Truemanqld (Reply 92):
Even if QF received the 2 A380's next year, they wouldn't have been put on PER-LHR. They would have gone on routes like SYD-DFW because they are very likely to be more profitable

Absolutely agree with this, its not a route you would necessarily prioritize but my point is it is becoming practical and is at least in the heads of those who think ahead, rather than the close mindedness I seem to be encountering on this thread.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 93):
3. The article admits that there would be serious operational concerns (ie lack of diversion airports).

Learmouth has been used as a diversion for PER on many occasions and is basically on the track of LHR-PER. Also there is a RAAF base in Perth that takes C-17's if its a later diversion.



BV
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 95, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3598 times:

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 94):
Which is presumably why he includes the line


I take the viable tag with a pinch of salt until you (or Mr Sandilands) can show me a QF cost analysis for this route. QF has extremely high operating costs, so what might be viable for EK or SQ could be a major money bleeder for QF.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 94):
As for time and distance of east coast connections the comparison he makes is with the old QF 3 stop SYD-PER-BOM-LHR

This example is raised by a commenter, not by the author. Interesting the commenter goes on to say that this example has shown negative reaction to a stop in Australian en route in the past.

May I draw your attention to:

In fact the Perth or Darwin options are not the shortest possible routes for flights starting in the east coast capitals

Flying from SYD to LHR via PER adds some 5% to the total distance travelled. Flying via SIN adds only 1% and flying via BKK adds only .5% -- it's an irresputable fact that the routing via Asia is shorter in distance.

5% doesn't sound like much, but it adds more than an hour to the time spent in the sky.

Also consider that travellers will need to allow 2 hours transit in PER until the new terminal is opened. QF flights through SIN have 1hr 40mins downtime en route -- just adding at least 20 minutes to the total travel time.

That's 1hr 30mins additional travel time, based on facts. Flying via PER from the East Coast takes longer than flying via Asia.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 94):
my point is it is becoming practical and is at least in the heads of those who think ahead, rather than the close mindedness I seem to be encountering on this thread

I'm not arguing against being innovative and forward thinking at all -- I'm debating against the point that this is becoming "practical". In my view it isn't. As I have stated plainly:

1. PER-LHR does not have the traffic to sustain such a service on its own. This is something that Mr Sandilands agrees with me on.
2. Routing via PER has zero beneift for the vast majority of the population (ie anybody outside of PER) -- I haven't yet heard you raise any other benefits that such a routing would offer passengers to encouraged them to utilise such a service.
3. Such a route would be horribly expensive to operate (as is any ULH haul route) and there is no incentive for customers to pay more for it, aside perhaps from PER (as per point 2). Oil is going to keep on getting more expensive, making such a route even less likely to turn a profit.
4. The winds and the lack of diversion airports (ie a single airport capable of handling the A380 should there be adverse conditions in PER -- and one with extremely limited facilities at that) make it an operational nightmare.

This is not a matter of having a closed/open mind. I have only ever debated the paracticality of the route, never the concept of it.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5946 posts, RR: 5
Reply 96, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3571 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 95):
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 94):

Jeez you two!

You're both right: BV - it's technically possible, 002 - it'll never happen

However I'm calling your little lovers' tiff for BV on the basis of this...

Quoting qf002 (Reply 80):
we don't have space for QR over here because all the A380's take up too much room
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 81):
No, you don't have space for QR because NSW is hopeless at planning infrastructure.

Pure gold  



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 97, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3528 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 95):
5% doesn't sound like much, but it adds more than an hour to the time spent in the sky.

No it doesn't.

3.5% sounds like even less and 3.5% is the actual additional distance.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 95):
That's 1hr 30mins additional travel time, based on facts. Flying via PER from the East Coast takes longer than flying via Asia.

Well, I dispute your timings but from a western perspective removing one take off and landing + 3 hours extra flying and the 1 hour 20 transit time in SIN (herding the kids off and back on a plane the joys of the transit lounge)... you really don't think that there is a market for saving 6 hours (17 as opposed to 23 hours) flying directly? 6 hours.... I'd pay extra for that and I believe a lot of people would.

If it was cheaper to fly SYD-BNE-MEL than direct how many people would waste their time going the long way? Not f@#ing many! The question is how much more would we pay for a direct flight, the answer is we will never know at ths rate because the service will not be offered.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 95):
I haven't yet heard you raise any other benefits that such a routing would offer passengers to encouraged them to utilise such a service.

Pro points

1) Some people given the choice would rather change planes in Australia than in Asia

2) Landing fees are going to be cheaper for the airline at PER with a 738/763 than in SIN with a 744/388

3) Its a MUCH quicker route for people who live in Perth and may gain some PAX

4) Better utilisation of aircraft, no curfew at PER gives more flexibility in operations, using medium haul aircraft to connect to PER may even allow you to take one A380 off of the kangaroo route

5) 1 long segment may have crew cost implications + or - I don't know either way but I'm putting it down as a plus

6) Flying route may give marketing opportunities to Airline and/or Airframer, free publicity

7) Reduced airframe cycles on A380 leading to reduced maintenance / parts

8) Route does not use congested Asian air-tracks so potentially less delays

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 96):
Pure gold

Hey, I'll take the vote  Wink Keep it quiet but I used to live in the shadow of YSSY, clearly moving across the country has had some strange effect on me  Smile

[Edited 2012-05-25 05:36:20]


BV
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 98, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3431 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 96):

Why must you ruin all the fun with your reasoned objectivity??

Okay, I promise this is my last response to this thread...

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):

No it doesn't.

3.5% sounds like even less and 3.5% is the actual additional distance.

I can see where you're getting the 3.5% from, and I agree it's a better comparison. You're still looking at an additional 45 minutes of flying time, which is hardly insignificant, especially when the biggest draw card for the East Coast would be speed.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
you really don't think that there is a market for saving 6 hours (17 as opposed to 23 hours) flying directly? 6 hours.... I'd pay extra for that and I believe a lot of people would.


I never said that there wasn't a market from PER, I just refute that it's large enough to support services, especially given it would miss out on the support of East Coast passengers. Also, from PER it's more like 20 hours to LHR, including the stop. The time saving would only be 3 hours, and potentially less depending on the winds.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
1) Some people given the choice would rather change planes in Australia than in Asia

Fair enough. I would respond by asking if they are willing to spend an extra 25-30% for that privilege, and I would ask how this helps fill F/J given the time conscious nature of corporate travellers. I'd also point out that QF isn't in the business of providing choices, they are in the business of making money.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
2

The difference would be considerably less than the premium the ULH flight would have to command to be at all viable. An East Coast passenger would still be paying more for a longer and less comfortable flight.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
3

Yes, but it is also longer for the 90% of the population who don't, and would be vital to the success of such a service.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
4

What benefit does the customer see that convinces them it's worth the extra $$?

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
5

As per 4. I'd also point out that this could be a major detriment to the airline, given that they would miss the opportunity to utilise cheaper FA's based at the Asian midpoint.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
6

Also a fair point, though given the visible shift away from flying routes for 'prestige' across the industry, I doubt it would be a factor.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
7

But at the same time, you'd be adding hours to the frame.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 97):
8

I can see the ad campaign already  The existing flights are rarely delayed due to Asian traffic...

Now it's my turn!

1. QF would lose a significant competitive advantage against SQ, given that LHR pad currently support the level of SIN service we see today from all the major capitals. That's an important consideration, given QF is barely at daily out of MEL/BNE as it is, and seems to be very weak from ADL.

2. QF loses the ability to shift operations to SIN and reduce costs. They are stuck with their high Australian cost base all the way to LHR, in addition to the additional cost of the ULH service.

3. East Coast customers would be exposed to major product inconsistency. Passengers would be subjected to domestic service, seats and aircraft for the first quarter of their journey, compared to the international product all the way via SIN. There's also the issue of F and W pax, who wouldn't be catered for at all domestically. These higher yielding passengers are key to the success of a flight like this, and PER has zero local F market according to QF.

4. There is a significant risk of missed connections in PER given the domestic congestion that exists, which is something you don't have to worry about if you're travelling on QF1 or QF9 all the way through.

5. Premium passengers and FF's miss out on the great lounges at SYD (and to a lesser extent, MEL) International. There is also no F lounge in PER.

6. A PER transfer is significantly more painful than a SIN transfer, and the new terminal is still years away.

That's my final stand... We might have to agree to disagree  Wow!


User currently offlinesethor From Australia, joined Oct 2011, 31 posts, RR: 0
Reply 99, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3429 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 95):
3. Such a route would be horribly expensive to operate (as is any ULH haul route) and there is no incentive for customers to pay more for it, aside perhaps from PER (as per point 2). Oil is going to keep on getting more expensive, making such a route even less likely to turn a profit.

Why would you think it will be more expensive? Currently most fares ex Australia to London are pretty much the same price, even though ex PER it is about 2-3 hours less flying time each way than ex ADL/MEL/SYD/BNE. Take away the stopover airport fees & you can start to see it being more viable.

I doubt PER will ever turn into a hub attracting east coast passengers. IMO there is enough local demand to fill a 789/77L/A345, but what is holding the route back is QF/BA/VA/VS's lack of suitable aircraft. Even when VS/QF/BA get the 789 it needs 8300+nm still air range to make it & I doubt the A380 has the legs to do it without the occasional fuel stops West bound.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 100, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3425 times:

Quoting sethor (Reply 99):
Why would you think it will be more expensive?

Because ULH costs more to operate. The fuel cost isn't a linear relationship to flight time -- ULH flights burn a lot of fuel carrying fuel for those last couple of hours flying.

Add the fact that an A380 would be unable to carry max payload on such a route, which means that the additional fuel costs are being distributed among fewer passengers (and substantially less cargo) and the CASM will rise sharply in comparison to flying full A380's through SIN.


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1585 posts, RR: 3
Reply 101, posted (2 years 7 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3355 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 98):
That's my final stand... We might have to agree to disagree Wow!

Ok buddy, fair enough  

It can be argued both ways but we do agree that for various reasons it is unlikely to happen with currently available aircraft. Maybe we can take up the argument in a couple of years when the A350 enters service....



BV
User currently offline9MMPD From Australia, joined Oct 2005, 286 posts, RR: 1
Reply 102, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 3246 times:

Ok I thought I would throw in my 2cents since this is the city I call home. I thought I would start with Perth then answer the topic question

In our life time Perth will never be as big as Melbourne or Sydney so will not have as many carriers eager to serve it. Though with its isolation (the 2nd most isolated capital in the world after Honolulu) aviation is a very important life line to connect with not only the world but the rest of the country and even within the state itself.

People have been saying the boom is going to end for years and it will come to an end one day but not in the near future. According to the Federal Government there is $500 Billion worth of mining projects that are under way. That's a lot of investment. Perth has been a big winner with a lot of money and people flowing into the state. The State Government of Western Australia estimates 500 people a week move to Perth. It 's understandable, the state has the lowest unemployment rate in the country and the State economy is tipped to grow at 6% a year.

It seems like every 2nd person here is connected to the mining industry some how. I have many friends who work for BHP, Rio, Woodside, Fortescue ect. BHP currently have 10 new projects underway and have put on hold 4. This is because of Greece. According to my friends who work for BHP, Greece effects Europe, Europe effects China and China effects us. China's economy is slowing but with up to 400 million Chinese shifting to middle class there is still a lot of domestic consumption which will call for our resources such as iron, not to mention India's slow rise will also help buffer any slow down from China as a large proportion of India's population is also making the shift to middle class.

Perth has seen tremendous growth over the last decade. Friends who have lived interstate or overseas have returned and said the city has changed so much that it is nearly unrecognisable. Some had only been gone for 6 months! The amount of building work is amazing and having lived here nearly all my life its amazing to see how many changes there have been and how many more people there are living here. Its also amazing to see the amount of new capital works that are about to begin.

Also what is amazing is the amount of wealth on show here. There is a lot of money to be made in this State and yes our cost of living here is ridiculous (hence why I thought it was a joke that I could get a $10 steak dinner at a Sydney pub when it would cost me upwards of $30 here in Perth). Perth has a lot of affluent people here we have more millionaires per capita living here than anywhere else in the country. It is not unusual to see a Range Rover or a BMW X5 towing a trailer with a cement mixer. And you know that the State must be doing ok as I live in a middle class suburb but the guy 2 houses down has a Porsche Cayenne (the new one) and another guy a block away has the latest Jag.

Yes Perth relies heavily on the mining industry and the State Government does recoginse that and thats why it is trying to get Perth to become a Financial hub due to our proximity to Asia and the fact we have the same timezone as China and Japan. A friend who works in the planning department for the State Government said that the aim for the Government for Perth was to make it the Houston of Asia.

The government realises that Perth Airport is a vital peice of infrastucture for the State and has invested billions in upgrading roads around the airport as well as the WAC (West Australian Airport Council) has invested a lot in works to expand and build new terminals, taxiways and aprons. Again in 3 years Perth will look very different from now and even now it looks very very diffent to what it did when I was growing up.

So that brings me to air services

CURRENT CARRIERS

Qantas - They seem to have retreated alot out of the market and now only serve Hong Kong and SIngapore Internationally. With Qantas's own flights between Hong Kong and London being withdrawn as part of it's consolidation of it's international arm as it tries to get it back to the black. Also strong competition from CX I would not be surprised if QF pulls the PER-HKG route. Any growth from QF will be from its domestic arm. The 747s are coming back and I think we could see them put twice daily on the QF575/QF580 and the QF583/568 run. We could also see a daily MEL 747 run as well due to more intense competition from VA.I am sure it will only be a matter of time till we see 767s on runs from Perth to Karratha and even Newman (the fastest growing air route in the country) and Port Hedland. I can see Qantaslink basing a lot more than 2 Dash8s here as their mining contracts grow. With the JSA with SAA to be terminated by the end of the year QF mgiht want to reinstate flights directly between PER and JNB. Perth has a massive South African expat population (same climate as CPT) A332s could fly the route or a 747 from SYD could stop in Perth on the way.

Air Mauritius - They have just restructured their Australian operations so that their Melbourne flighst are now via Perth. I can't see them expanding any time soon here since they are consolidating themselves and ever since I was a kid I can only remeber them having 1 flight a week!

Air New Zealand - They have just announced a 20% increase in capacity by switiching from 763s to 772s The PER-AKL route is reported to be one of NZ's most profitable and not surprsingly. Large kiwi population lives in Perth (part of the growing exodus of Kiwi's from New Zealand to Australia) plus it's the only direct service between the two cities.

Air Asia X - Since they have pulled out of Europe they have some spare capacity. They seemed to have used that now by announcing that flights will be increased from 7 x week to 10. I can see that going to double daily in a year or two.

Alliance - I can see them basing even more of their F100 fleet here and even looking for bigger aircraft as they try to keep up with demand from the Fly In Fly Out market (FIFO)

Cathay Pacific - They have kept their seasonal summer 10 x week services permenant (up from 7 x week) Their CEO is all about frequency as it is very attractive to the business market and I can see their flights being bumped up to double daily in a year or two.

China Southern - Have been promoting themselves heavily as a great way to access China and a cheap way to access Europe and L.A they have indicated that they would go to a daily service within a year but no word on that just yet. I was surprised they started with A333s I assumed that a A332 would have been more appropriate.

Emirates - Has reintroduced the 77W for the EK420/421 service I see the early morning service also being upgarded back to a 77W in a year of too though there have been regular subbing of 77L for 77Ws for a while. There has been talk of introducing a 3rd flight to meet with Dubai's 3rd daily wave of flgiths to Europe but I believe the carrier has no more slots for Australia. prehaps a DXB-PER-ADL might be a way to get around that. EK have indicated that PER is in line to recieve the A380 when the International Terminal is upgraded. They have so many A380s on order they have to send them somewhere and in the future I can see the carreir wanting to standardize all their Australian services with A380s.

Garuda Indonesia - DPS is a massive market for Perth and there is heavy competition. The carrier has many new A330s on order and I think some might be delpoyed on the DPS-PER route to help their fight against DJ,JQ and QZ on . The carrier has also stated that they wanted to reinstate direct CGK-PER flights in the future using 735s. This mkes sense as Indonesia is one of the fastest economies in the world.

Indonesia Air Asia - Again the DPS route is very popular if posible I see them adding more flights to ther already 21 x week schedule.

Jetstar - I think Jetstar will have a bigger presence in Perth. The A321 has made it across the Nullubor to Perth a couple times and I see that happening more often. I remember reading an article when Jetstar introduced the A321 stating that the A321 is more economical on longer flights than shorter SYD-MEL or MEL - OOL flights. I think if there were any direct flights to be reinstated between PER and NRT I think it would be Jetstar that would do it. They could rotate an A332 from CNS or OOL though NRT and then onwards to PER. These flights would link up with JQ's new Japanese operation. Japan is a popular holiday destination espeially during the ski season and freight wise there is a lot of fresh produce exported from W.A to the Japanese markets. Also without a dedicated freighter service to PER a JQ service would also allow a faster way for goods from Japan to get to Perth without the need to go through HKG or SIN or even SYD.

Malaysia Airlines - They are still trying to sort out what they are doing. I can't see any changes from them. Its good to see an improved product on their A330s here though.

Qatar Airways - They are starting JUL3 (can't wait!) and have stated forward bookings have been very strong and higher than they have anticipated. They will be daily by NOV this year and I think we will see regular subbing of 77L aircraft for 77W over peak Christmas periods.

Singapore Airlines - (my favourite and Australia's defacto national airline as it seems) They have already announced that again during the peak summer period they will go back to 4 x a day (thats more than QF international). Loads must be very healthy as they have reintroduced the 772 which carries more people than the 333. I prefer the 333 as the product on board that aircraft was better. Also 773s are scheduled to fly the route as well! So we will have 14 x week SQ 333 services a week, 3 x 773s and 11 x 772s a week.

Skywest - I can see more A320s being accquired to help boost capacity from the F100s These A320s could be used on the DPS route over the weekend. Then there are all the new ATRs from VA that will replace XR's F50s

South African Airways - With the JSA ending SAA might retreat a little and send us their A332s instead of their A340s as they claim they can't survive on the route if there are two carriers plying it. This something I don't believe since it costs less to fly from PER - LAX than it does PER - JNB. There is a very large South African population living in Perth and many of them are not short of a few pennys. With the JSA being disolved SAA might want to start services again from PER - SYD as part of their JNB-PER-SYD run which they used to do. Maybe 4 days a week the service could go to SYD and 3 days a week to MEL

Thai Airways - Don't really know what they plan to do with Perth

Tiger Airways - Again I not really sure. Maybe more flights to Melbourne?

Virgin Australia - With more A330s on the way I see more A330 flights between MEL and SYD as they try even harder to gain more market share of the lucarative East Coast - West Coast business. They have already gained some market share. Once their international expansion begins we may see them on flights to HKG from PER or NRT if JQ hasn't started flights or even JNB. I doubut they will fly to SIN and compete dircetly with SQ. International expansion from Perth will happen only after it happens in SYD, MEL and BNE. JNB would be ideal as with the new Domestic terminal completed by 2014 will be a great terminal to transit passengers from the Eastern States to International flights.

NEW CARRIERS

Etihad - Eastern Staters, EY will enter the Perth market. Rumors around are saying it could be as early as December this year with an announcement at the end of June to crash the PR QR will get around their first services. Jame Hogan EY CEO who is also a Perth boy has stated that PER is high up on EY's list and they will be here by 2013. I think realisticly they will start services next year but they may look to cash in on the peak xmas period. PER has alot of oil and gas traffic to fill the front of the plane as well as affulent citizens making their way to Europe. I think services will start with A332 equipment

Citilink - Garuda's low cost arm will be recieveing a batch of A320 Neos. Placing an Citilink on one of GA's 3 x daily DPS - PER flights may help it compete against low cost Indonesia Air Asia

Lion Air - These guys have a lot of 737s on order and like Emirtaes with their A380s have to fly them some where. Its no big secret that Lion Air is keen to start flying to Australia. Once CASA gives them the green light their 737-900ERs will probably join everyone else on the DPS- PER route but it would be great to see them offer flight from CGK and even SUB to PER. CGK is a growing imporatnt business hub in South Asia

Batavia Airways - Again these guys have publicy stated that they would like to serve Australia in the future. Whether CASA actually lets them is another story.

British Airways - I along with many people would love to see BA back in PER. Perth has the largest population of British expats in the country. London is a very very popular market for Australians (just ask MH, TG, SQ and EK) Before MH joining One World I thought a LHR-KUL-PER service would be ideal but now that just seems to be silly especially when you will be competeing agianst MH's new A380s. It looks like any KUL service from BA might go and tag onto CGK. With BA annoucing ICN will be served soon KUL has most definately moved up the list of BA's next destinations. I think a flight via SIN as before is out of the question. SIN generates enough traffic in its own right that PER would canibalise seats. SIN is said to be doing so well for BA both load and yeild wise that it is a contender for BA380 operations. The current BA schedule to SIN does not allow enough time for a flight down to PER and back. One way BA could come back to PER is via India. PER/Australia does not have direct service to India. Whether or not AI will ever serve SYD or MEL is yet to be seen and given their current state I will believe it when I see it. India is an important export market for Australia. IT has pulled all their international flights so any OneWorld tie up via SIN with QF is now over and its back to 9W. If 9W gets rejected from Star Alliance (which it should) then joining OneWorld would be great but I digress. A BA service from LHR - PER via DEL or BOM would be able help OneWorld partner Qantas tap into direct flights to India from Australia. I believe BA may still hold 5th freedom rights from both countries. Passenegers could funnel from the MEL and SYD to PER and then onwards to India. Things that work against this plan are BA have reduced their prescense in Australia so much so that they only have one flight a day to Australia. PER may canabilise seats from a very lucrative India - LHR service and BA might not have 5th freedom rights anymore from India.

Kenya Airways - They have said publicly that they want to service PER once their 787s arrive. This would be a great addition to the PER market. Kenya would be a great gateway to East Africa. Many Mining business have key interests in Africa and agian PER has a large and growing African population. KQ have got some ambitious expansion plans and it will be very interesting to see if they pull it off. I would love to see KQ here but I won't be holding my breathe.


Virgin Atlantic - They annouced PER services from London when they ordered their 787s probaby as a publicity stunt. As it has been stated over and over again on this forum ULH flights are very hard to make money. There is most definately a market for direct flights between London and Perth both on the VFR front and on the business front (mining companies in London securing funding, our Financial services working with one of the worl'ds biggest Finacial hubs) I can't see VS flyign to PER nonstop. They have been flying to SYD for years and haven't even increased frequencies or talked about starting MEL so I doubt PER is high on their radar. And besides aren't their 787s delayed? Again I would love to see them here but not holding my breathe


Scoot - I think these guys might come into the Perth Market soon. They look like they are trying to copy D7. Singapore is a very popular destination for Perth. A daily scoot flight could replace one of the 4 x daily SQ flights as well as the daily TR flight from SIN. SQ could raise their prices for the remaining 3 flights whilst those budget conesious passngers could fly on Scoot.


Vietnam Airlines - Is in expansion mode. Vietnam Airlines stated that they wanted to be one of the biggest carriers in South East Asia. Vietnam has a rapidly growing economy and is a very popular tourist destination. There is also a large VFR market as well. Though AK, TR and JQ offer very low fares (be it terrible timings) to Vietnam so VN might find it hard to compete. VN's entry into the PER market would not be for many years.

Korean Air also has quite an expansive network and already serves BNE, SYD and MEL. PER is a gap in their market though I doubt the Perth market would be big enough for KE to enter it.

Royal Brunei - With D7 having pulled out of London and MH stopping their Kota Kinabalu flights, Perth does not have any direct flights to Borneo. BI pulled out of the Perth market due to competition for traffic to Borneo from MH and low cost flights to London from D7. Both those factors have gone so a possible return maybe likely though the airline is still restructuring so it may be some time before we see it in expansion mode.

Air China/China Eastern - With CZ having served PER for nearly 8 months and only remained at 3 services a week dthis oes not bode well for CA and MU. These guys might eneter the PER market once the PER/China market matures a little more. There is definately demand for fligths to China from PER from tradein China and international students but there is heavy competition on the route from SQ and CX and even MH from their SIN.HKG and KUL hubs respectably.


User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 103, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 3212 times:

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 102):
QF mgiht want to reinstate flights directly between PER and JNB. Perth has a massive South African expat population (same climate as CPT) A332s could fly the route

the problem is with A330's and ETOPS. If QF or SA want to use A330's across the Indian Ocean, they would need to fly a more northerly route, which adds time and cost to the flight. VA's MEL-JNB flight had to add 2 hours of flight time due to ETOPS, and VA eventually left the route.

Although PER-JNB wouldn't be as bad, I can't see SA changing to A330's, and QF might be best of using a 747, possibly from the eastern states via PER.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5946 posts, RR: 5
Reply 104, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3172 times:

Hell, I've decided to wade in now... qf002 I'm not disagreeing with you - just want to clarify a few things

Quoting qf002 (Reply 98):
given QF is barely at daily out of MEL/BNE as it is

How on earth does a daily A380 from MEL and a daily 744 from BNE count as "barely at daily"?!?!

If they had gone to a daily A330 last month then fair enough but, really? Talk about Sydney-centrism  

(ps it was this comment which inspired me to deconstruct your post!)

Quoting qf002 (Reply 98):
They are stuck with their high Australian cost base all the way to LHR

The other way of looking at it is they could be "stuck" with their low[er] UK cost base all the way to PER (although I'm sure the FA union would fight tooth and nail to prevent that, but - hey - this was all hypothetical anyway!)

Quoting qf002 (Reply 98):
East Coast customers would be exposed to major product inconsistency. Passengers would be subjected to domestic service, seats and aircraft for the first quarter of their journey

Very good point. Obviosuly the difference wouldn't be as great as when we fly to the Eastern Seaboard (other than JFK) but even so, it is a big product downgrade.

If QF SYD-LAX-JFK and QF/AA SYD-LAX-JFK are similarly priced then why would anyone choose to fly AA? The same applies to SYD-SIN-LHR vs SYD-PER-LHR.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 98):
Premium passengers and FF's miss out on the great lounges at SYD (and to a lesser extent, MEL) International. There is also no F lounge in PER.

If they were to do what BoeingVista suggested then that would no doubt be rectified.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 98):
A PER transfer is significantly more painful than a SIN transfer

Another good point.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 102):
the state has the lowest unemployment rate in the country

Ahem, we do exist here in ACT  

Unemployment for April 2012: ACT: 3.3%, WA: 3.9% (National: 5.1%)

Source: http://www.treasury.act.gov.au/snapshot/LABOUR.pdf

Overall, though, I though yours was a fantastic post.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinekoruman From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 105, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3145 times:

Just for the record, as of April 2012, over 70% of Australians earning over $120,000 per year are employed in Western Australia.

So while Sydney and Melbourne remain more important commercial centres, the majority of prospective high-yield leisure travellers in Australia are now actually working in WA.


User currently offlineqantas077 From Australia, joined Jan 2004, 5869 posts, RR: 39
Reply 106, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3134 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 31):
Just as BHP is HQ'ed in MEL. That's where the decisions are made.

not for much longer...and you'll find that the most profitable arms of those two companies are HQ'd in Perth.

Quoting weebie (Reply 40):
The talent locally can't compete.

yeah...richest woman in the world and possibly soon to become the richest person in the world is from Perth, and has just announced the development of a major Iron Ore mine which will increase employment in the NW of WA.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 57):
A lower AUD will actually boost the Vic and NSW economies

yeah...not sure which planet you are living on but the jobs market in those two states is very bad at the moment, try reading the newspaper some day...Victoria has she upwards of 40,000 jobs this year alone. A lower AUD isn't going to suddenly find 40,000 Victorians a new job.



a true friend is someone who sees the pain in your eyes, while everyone else believes the smile on your face.
User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 107, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3087 times:

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 102):
Alliance - I can see them basing even more of their F100 fleet here and even looking for bigger aircraft as they try to keep up with demand from the Fly In Fly Out market (FIFO)

Alliance are progressivly buying ex QF (JetConnect) 734's, one is based in PER already.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 102):
Qatar Airways - They are starting JUL3 (can't wait!) and have stated forward bookings have been very strong and higher than they have anticipated. They will be daily by NOV this year and I think we will see regular subbing of 77L aircraft for 77W over peak Christmas periods.

If QR want success in PER they need to re-time their flights as the only Big European port this flight connects to is LHR.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 102):
Skywest - I can see more A320s being accquired to help boost capacity from the F100s These A320s could be used on the DPS route over the weekend. Then there are all the new ATRs from VA that will replace XR's F50s

I think you will find the A320 exit the XR fleet quiet quick, this A320 was purchased with Fortesque (FMG) for services to cloudbreak, but now us at QF have the FMG contract and we have put QLink on the route with 717's a couple times a day.

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 102):
Thai Airways - Don't really know what they plan to do with Perth

As of July TG go back to the triangle route, PER-HKT-BKK-PER with A330's



Next Trip: PER-DPS-KUL-BKK-HKT-CNX-BKK-SIN-PER
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 108, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3046 times:

Quoting qantas077 (Reply 106):

not for much longer...and you'll find that the most profitable arms of those two companies are HQ'd in Perth.

The Global HQ will remain in Melb. Each operational area is based in many parts of the world for many years now, but just read the actual statement instead of trying to go off on a tangent. Might be helpful.

Quoting qantas077 (Reply 106):
yeah...richest woman in the world and possibly soon to become the richest person in the world is from Perth, and has just announced the development of a major Iron Ore mine which will increase employment in the NW of WA.

Good for you. I'm happy you can sleep at night thinking ONE person has so much money  
Quoting qantas077 (Reply 106):
yeah...not sure which planet you are living on but the jobs market in those two states is very bad at the moment, try reading the newspaper some day...Victoria has she upwards of 40,000 jobs this year alone. A lower AUD isn't going to suddenly find 40,000 Victorians a new job.

Once again, read what is said. A lower AUD will make many industries that suffer from a mining inflated dollar much more competitive, hence the ability to grow again. Simple maths. Might be good for you to learn that one.


User currently offline9MMPD From Australia, joined Oct 2005, 286 posts, RR: 1
Reply 109, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3026 times:

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 103):
the problem is with A330's and ETOPS. If QF or SA want to use A330's across the Indian Ocean, they would need to fly a more northerly route, which adds time and cost to the flight. VA's MEL-JNB flight had to add 2 hours of flight time due to ETOPS, and VA eventually left the route.

ETOPs should not be too much of an issue as you are right the PER-JNB flights don't fly as far south. Any deviation I would expect would be minimal. I had thought the current routing brought the flights very close to MRU which MK uses their A330s from to PER.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 104):
Ahem, we do exist here in ACT

Unemployment for April 2012: ACT: 3.3%, WA: 3.9% (National: 5.1%)

Dam forgot the ACT. Sorry lol. Everyone thinks the rental market in Perth is bad but Canberra has the worst in the country.

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 107):
Alliance are progressivly buying ex QF (JetConnect) 734's, one is based in PER already.

I hadn't heard that. I was under the impression that the 734 that is currently in the fleet was there to cover F100s undergoing maintence and once that was done (JUL I think) that 734 would be converted to a freighter and sent to Toll

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 107):
I think you will find the A320 exit the XR fleet quiet quick, this A320 was purchased with Fortesque (FMG) for services to cloudbreak, but now us at QF have the FMG contract and we have put QLink on the route with 717's a couple times a day.

Thats a shame it has been a while since the A320 was introduced and there was much talk that more would follow but none have. It must be costly to run such a small sub fleet.

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 107):
As of July TG go back to the triangle route, PER-HKT-BKK-PER with A330's

I hadn't thought of that

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 107):
If QR want success in PER they need to re-time their flights as the only Big European port this flight connects to is LHR.

Thats a massive shock. QR have stated publicly that they are very impressed for the forward booksing for this flight and had switched from A332 to a 77L before flights had started and have brought forward their plans for a daily service which will commence at the end of OCT.


User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 110, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2993 times:

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 109):
I hadn't heard that. I was under the impression that the 734 that is currently in the fleet was there to cover F100s undergoing maintence and once that was done (JUL I think) that 734 would be converted to a freighter and sent to Toll

They already have ZK-JTQ ex JetConnect



Next Trip: PER-DPS-KUL-BKK-HKT-CNX-BKK-SIN-PER
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3461 posts, RR: 5
Reply 111, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2986 times:

Quoting FlyingHollander (Reply 3):
All I can say is that according to gcmap LHR-PER is 526mi shorter that SIN-EWR.

EWR-SIN is being flown by an all J A345 and not a mixed 77L, unless an A345 carrier flies this route I doubt it'll work.

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 6):

When VS ordered the 787, Branson said that the two first routes would be LHR-HNL and LHR-PER. However, lots of things have changed, and the 787 profile has also changed. Think the route is a bit too far for VS' upcoming 787-9s, at least without payload losses, etc.

I expect them to try both routes, they will be able to advertise UK-Australia non-stop, that will attract pax. Then feed them off to VA for the legs to SYD, MEL, BNE etc...

Quoting SA744 (Reply 10):
Im just interested to know what is the news on the QF/SA codeshare have they decided to call it a day and will SAA carry on flying the route or will QF take the route over. Will we maybe see the daily SYD-JNB flight become SYD-PER-JNB

It has been a back and forth thing hasn't it? I'm not sure if they can't fly a few days a week via PER for those only going to PER and WA, the rest can go non-stop JNB-SYD as it is now.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 17):
LHR-PER is no sweat for the 77L. PER-LHR is, but it can still be done. Great Circle distance between PER-LHR is 7829nm. According to the payload/range chart, the 77L can fly approximately 7600nm with a full payload, so there'll definitely be some payload penalties on that route - especially when you take into account prevailing winds

IMO, the payload restrictions will become too great, and a west-bound stop would be required. Much like the ET ADD-IAD flight stopping in FCO only one-way with no local traffic.

Quoting weebie (Reply 20):
Kenya Airways are coming here in a few years as well.


They have been saying that about JFK as well, I hope the 787 in KQ colors will do NBO-JFK as well.



AA AC AQ AS BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OO OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 112, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2985 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 104):
How on earth does a daily A380 from MEL and a daily 744 from BNE count as "barely at daily"?!?!

The point I was trying to make is that the existing level of service to SIN is heavily supported by traffic continuing to LHR. Take away this traffic and try to send it via PER, and there are going to be issues with sustaining existing services. While SYD and MEL would probably be ale to continue at daily, BNE and ADL would undoubtably see reductions, and PER might (though I imagine local traffic is reasonably strong from PER).

QF offered 16 flights a week on MEL-SIN in 2004 (including the BA service) -- so really, they have already shed a lot of capacity to SQ over the past 8 years.

And rest assured, I am well aware that SYD would lose a daily flight as well   It's not as drastic dropping from double to single daily though, compared to potentially dropping from daily to 4-5 weekly from BNE or dropping ADL altogether. You'll notice I left PER off the list as well -- perhaps I'm PER centric 

Barely was the wrong word to use...

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 104):
The other way of looking at it is they could be "stuck" with their low[er] UK cost base all the way to PER (although I'm sure the FA union would fight tooth and nail to prevent that, but - hey - this was all hypothetical anyway!)

QF's operating future is SIN (or rather, Asia), not LHR.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 104):
If they were to do what BoeingVista suggested then that would no doubt be rectified.

I'm not convinced it would. They only did a half arsed MEL F lounge, and that was back when there were 2x daily LHR, SIN, HKG plus LAX offering F. PER would have a single flight, and QF isn't exactly falling over themselves to add service. For the record, I think PER should have better lounges (seriously, no domestic J?), but I doubt QF would spend that sort of money...

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 104):
Ahem, we do exist here in ACT

To be fair, it's a pretty easy place to forget...

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 102):

I have to agree with Ryanair's assessment -- excellent post (worth the 30mins it took the read the whole thing!) PER has a lot of growth potential all round...

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 108):
Good for you. I'm happy you can sleep at night thinking ONE person has so much money  

And, of course, Gina Rinehart now lives in Sydney...


User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 113, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2973 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 112):
I think PER should have better lounges (seriously, no domestic J?), but I doubt QF would spend that sort of money...

Why should PER get another lounge? The have The Qantas Club and a Chairmans Lounge? Why have a designated Business Lounge? This is quiet sufficient, Granted it gets very crouded in there but it doesnt warrent another lounge.



Next Trip: PER-DPS-KUL-BKK-HKT-CNX-BKK-SIN-PER
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5946 posts, RR: 5
Reply 114, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2961 times:

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 113):
Why should PER get another lounge?

Because every other major city, from CBR up to SYD, has one.

I can only comment on the difference in quality between the Qantas Club and Business Lounge for those I've accompanied my dad into (BNE, CBR, MEL) but if I was a paid-up J passenger or a Platinum Frequent Flyer and had to "make do" with the Qantas Club I would feel pretty miffed. Sure, that's a sense of over-entitlement, but if you are going to provide a service provide it consistently and - at the very least - at a city as important as PER.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 112):

Wow, sorry if I rattled your cage! I should have just left that one as dead...

Quoting qf002 (Reply 112):
QF's operating future is SIN (or rather, Asia), not LHR.

I am aware of that, I guess my stressed state of mind was making me provocative.

Quoting koruman (Reply 105):

It's good to have you back. I was wondering where you had got to!



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineCXB77L From Australia, joined Feb 2009, 2694 posts, RR: 5
Reply 115, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2948 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CHAT OPERATOR

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 111):
EWR-SIN is being flown by an all J A345 and not a mixed 77L, unless an A345 carrier flies this route I doubt it'll work.

The 77L can do any route that the A345 can.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 111):
I expect them to try both routes, they will be able to advertise UK-Australia non-stop, that will attract pax.

One thing I don't get, is that the 787 has less range than the 77L. So if PER-LHR cannot be done economically with the 77L, why can it be done with the 787?

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 111):
IMO, the payload restrictions will become too great, and a west-bound stop would be required. Much like the ET ADD-IAD flight stopping in FCO only one-way with no local traffic.

I disagree. When the Queen visited Australia late last year, she flew back non-stop from PER-LHR on a BA 772ER. Granted, it was a very lightly loaded 772ER, it is, nonetheless, a less capable aircraft than the 772LR. The 772LR has 1,670nm more range.

PER-LHR is technically possible with either a 772LR or an A345. Whether it is economically feasible, however, when taking into account the available market for the route, is an entirely different story.



Boeing 777 fanboy
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3461 posts, RR: 5
Reply 116, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2944 times:

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 115):
The 77L can do any route that the A345 can

That may be true, but no other airline is going to operate an all J 77L, do the economics of a mixed configuration 77L match those of an all J A345? I don't think we will see a 77L doing PER-LHR non-stop because of that reason.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 115):
I disagree. When the Queen visited Australia late last year, she flew back non-stop from PER-LHR on a BA 772ER. Granted, it was a very lightly loaded 772ER, it is, nonetheless, a less capable aircraft than the 772LR. The 772LR has 1,670nm more range.

I'm sure you just answered your own question and proved my point, the Queen flies on a lightly loaded 777, without 300 passengers, and baggage and cargo. I agree the plane can make it, just not profitably.



AA AC AQ AS BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OO OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 3020 posts, RR: 2
Reply 117, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2951 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 111):
I expect them to try both routes, they will be able to advertise UK-Australia non-stop, that will attract pax. Then feed them off to VA for the legs to SYD, MEL, BNE etc...

You might be interested in this article from last week. It would suggest that VS has few plans to add service to Australia...

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 113):
Why should PER get another lounge? The have The Qantas Club and a Chairmans Lounge? Why have a designated Business Lounge? This is quiet sufficient, Granted it gets very crouded in there but it doesnt warrent another lounge.

1. So that there is a quiet area for those who are in J or Plat FF's to escape that noise/crowding.

2. To remain competitive against VA (or rather, provide an incentive for J travellers to chose them by having a great, quiet lounge just for them).

3. No doubt, growth will continue, so the crowding will only get worse. The best (and simplest) way to combat this is to pull the most valuable customers out and provide something better for them.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 114):
Because every other major city, from CBR up to SYD, has one.

Even ADL has a dedicated J space!!

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 114):
Wow, sorry if I rattled your cage! I should have just left that one as dead...

So sorry if I seemed abrupt!! Totally not intended   


User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 118, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 2961 times:

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 107):
If QR want success in PER they need to re-time their flights as the only Big European port this flight connects to is LHR.

That is just incorrect. The QR flight connects to the main departure bank at DOH and the main arrival bank. There is a reason it is timed almost identically to EK420/1, which was the flight EK started with.

QR901 PER 22:55 - 05:15+1 DOH

connects well with

QR3 DOH 08:20 - 13:30 MUC
QR11 DOH 07:55 - 13:15 LHR
QR19 DOH 08:25 - 14:25 CDG
QR25 DOH 08:25 - 14:00 FRA
QR33 DOH 09:15 - 14:40 MXP
QR45 DOH 07:45 - 13:20 MAN
QR49 DOH 08:55 - 14:35 GVA
QR53 DOH 08:00 - 13:25 TXL
QR63 DOH 08:45 - 14:10 ZRH
QR67 DOH 08:00 - 13:55 BCN
QR71 DOH 07:30 - 13:55 MAD
QR75 DOH 06:40 - 12:00 LHR
QR85 DOH 08:20 - 13:50 CPH
QR87 DOH 08:55 - 13:55 FCO
QR89 DOH 08:45 - 14:20 ARN
QR95 DOH 08:40 - 13:30 VIE
QR462 DOH 08:40 - 12:35 ESB
QR472 DOH 08:00 - 12:35 ATH
QR482 DOH 07:50 - 12:20 IST
QR868 DOH 07:25 - 13:35 DME
QR941 DOH 08:35 - 14:30 BRU
QR943 DOH 08:35 - 13:30 OTP
QR947 DOH 07:40 - 12:15 BUD (14:10 ZAG)
QR953 DOH 08:10 - 14:25 OSL
QR961 DOH 09:00 - 14:20 VCE


And these flights connect well with QR900 DOH 01:05 - 17:10 PER

QR4 MUC 16:35 - 23:15 DOH
QR12 LHR 15:05 - 23:50 DOH
QR20 CDG 16:05 - 23:30 DOH
QR26 FRA 15:30 - 22:35 DOH
QR34 MXP 16:05 - 22:55 DOH
QR46 MAN 14:50 - 23:50 DOH
QR50 GVA 15:50 - 23:00 DOH
QR54 TXL 16:05 - 23:05 DOH
QR64 ZRH 15:40 - 22:40 DOH
QR68 BCN 15:40 - 23:05 DOH
QR72 MAD 15:25 - 23:15 DOH
QR86 CPH 15:35 - 22:45 DOH
QR88 FCO 16:40 - 23:10 DOH
QR90 ARN 15:50 - 22:55 DOH
QR96 VIE 16:05 - 22:25 DOH
QR463 ESB 19:15 - 22:50 DOH
QR477 ATH 18:55 - 23:00 DOH
QR481 IST 19:30 - 23:40 DOH
QR867 DME 19:55 - 00:05+1 DOH
QR942 BRU 16:00 - 23:30 DOH
QR944 ZAG 15:10 (OTP 18:25) - 22:55 DOH
QR948 BUD 17:05 - 23:20 DOH
QR954 OSL 15:55 - 23:40 DOH
QR962 VCE 15:45 - 22:30 DOH

Please, don't tell me QR flight is mistimed, if anything, it is perfectly timed.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineBAeRJ100 From Australia, joined Nov 2011, 113 posts, RR: 0
Reply 119, posted (2 years 7 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2889 times:

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 107):
Alliance are progressivly buying ex QF (JetConnect) 734's, one is based in PER already.
Quoting JQflightie (Reply 110):
They already have ZK-JTQ ex JetConnect

9MMPD is correct. ZK-JTQ isn't owned by Alliance, it's being leased from and operated by Airwork, a New Zealand company (hence why it has a New Zealand registration, if it was Alliance-owned I'm pretty sure it'd have to have an Australian rego). The lease is for six months, after which it's due to be converted into a freighter for Toll.

[Edited 2012-05-26 07:40:44]


B738-9/744ER/753/763/777/A320/332/333/388/MD82/717/F100/RJ100/146-100/200/300
User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 120, posted (2 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2700 times:

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 118):

unless they re-timed this flight, it was discusse a while back that it didnt connect with anything in EU except LHR.



Next Trip: PER-DPS-KUL-BKK-HKT-CNX-BKK-SIN-PER
User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 3090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 121, posted (2 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2678 times:

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 120):
unless they re-timed this flight, it was discusse a while back that it didnt connect with anything in EU except LHR.

IIRC, they have always had the same general timing of the flights. The only retiming was small, 30 minutes or so. I'm sure I remember being ecstatic about the press release about QR starting flights to PER and it fitting perfectly into my OSL flight.

However, at the start, it wouldn't allow me to book onward tickets to OSL, even though timing was perfect. But, I thought that was just a small problem with their reservation system at the start, it didn't take too long for bookings onwards to OSL to go through.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlineweebie From Australia, joined Dec 2009, 202 posts, RR: 0
Reply 122, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2379 times:

Quoting qantas077 (Reply 106):

Quoting weebie (Reply 40):
The talent locally can't compete.

yeah...richest woman in the world and possibly soon to become the richest person in the world is from Perth, and has just announced the development of a major Iron Ore mine which will increase employment in the NW of WA.

Who cares. she got her money from daddy and Perth is moron central. BHP and Rio will never leave their Melbourne base.

If you work in Management in mining in Perth, you would be aware that Forrest is essentially a crook.

All it will take is for China to overheat and these mining projects will stop quickly. Just like they did in 2008.


User currently offlinepilotdude09 From Australia, joined May 2005, 1777 posts, RR: 4
Reply 123, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2325 times:

Quoting weebie (Reply 40):
BHP and Rio will never move to Perth. The talent locally can't compete.

To clarify BHP Iron Ore and Rio Tinto Iron Ore are HQ'd in Perth and Rio CEO Iron Ore reports to London, both are business units and control international projects obviously howver both have HQ's in Melbourne (believe this is mainly for Coal)

Technically Rio Tinto don't even deal with all of the projects, Robe River and Associates/Hamersley Iron do as they own all their respective stuff. Rio Tinto just "Manages" the companys.

Rio Iron Ore has bugger all to do with the Melbourne office as theres only a few exectuive managers based there who report to London anyway.

Love how all the Perth people think its all about them!! How about the areas that are actually generating the money for you??

How many of you have been to Karratha or Port Hedland?? What about our roads? our schools? our Airports? KTA will be handling 1 million passengers this year and has an airport from the 80's that isn't cut out for the job.....wheres our money for an expansion?

Oh.....forgot, it's in Perth going to their roads, airport and stadiums.

Perth gets more than their fair share of money from WA and so does the whole country, the MRRT is all designed by the federal government to get a piece of the royalties pie and the GST reduction is part of that too, penalise WA Govt for getting royalties and not sharing them.

Perth Airport is a complete and utter joke, the terminal upgrade Qantas did a year or 2 ago helped a little bit but has done nothing to increase capacity, Virgin is running out of space and likewise with all the charter operators.

Flights are now almost always late in and out of Perth, havent had an ontime flight in a long long time.

When the WA Terminal is up and running it will help greatly, but the new intergrated terminal is still a total joke needs to be atleast twice as big as planned to cope with projected demand.

For anyone who lives in Perth to say they think theres going to be huge expansion, they are kidding themselves......where is this going to fit? Perth is at capacity and severly strained now and will be for the next decade until all of the terminals are built and sorted.

WA is always 5 year behind the 8 ball.



Qantas, Still calling Australia Home.........
User currently offlineCXB77L From Australia, joined Feb 2009, 2694 posts, RR: 5
Reply 124, posted (2 years 7 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2279 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CHAT OPERATOR

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 116):
do the economics of a mixed configuration 77L match those of an all J A345? I don't think we will see a 77L doing PER-LHR non-stop because of that reason.

Possibly.

The 77L has lower fuel burn per trip and lower trip costs than the A345. As such, the 77L doesn't need to make as much gross revenue to make the same profit.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 116):
I'm sure you just answered your own question and proved my point, the Queen flies on a lightly loaded 777, without 300 passengers, and baggage and cargo. I agree the plane can make it, just not profitably.

I said that she flew back on a lightly loaded 777-200ER, not -200LR. At any given range beyond 5800nm, the 77L can carry more payload than the 77E. PER-LHR is 7829nm great circle. At that range, the 77L can carry 10t more payload than the 77E.

The only barrier to how profitable this route can be is the availability of the market to support it, as there are already aircraft that can complete the route with a reasonable payload. That said, all this talk is theoretical since QF has neither the 77L nor the A345 to fly this route.



Boeing 777 fanboy
User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 720 posts, RR: 0
Reply 125, posted (2 years 7 months 23 hours ago) and read 2113 times:

Quoting pilotdude09 (Reply 123):
How many of you have been to Karratha or Port Hedland?? What about our roads? our schools? our Airports? KTA will be handling 1 million passengers this year and has an airport from the 80's that isn't cut out for the job.....wheres our money for an expansion?

I completely agree with this statement - KTA Airport is also in huge need of redevelopment. Maybe that's what is stopping QF sending the 763s up there.


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