28flyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2997 times:
I was just thinking:
How long will Airline Pilots really be needed?? 20 years or so down the road technology could be so advanced (maybe it already it is starting to become) that the planes will fly themselves. So would it really be useful for a person to go to college now and be an airline pilot if a few years down the road they will be phased out by technology? I got this idea from a show I saw on discovery channel a while back when some guy was talking about this advanced stuff.
28flyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2884 times:
i guess that dude was a real freak! I thought the masking tape between the glasses told me something! I kinda thought it was a messed thought while i heard it, but was just wondering what you guys thought.
AC_A340 From Canada, joined Sep 1999, 2251 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2852 times:
All the aircraft that are being produced now require pilots. They will be in service 20 years from now. So they will still need pilots 20 years from now. It would take at least 8 years for a new pilot-less aircraft to be designed so manufacturing could start. And all the aircraft in the planning stages right now require pilots. So to answer your question, I don't think it will be in our useful lifetime. No matter how good a computer is, nothing can replace the judgement of a skilled pilot.
FBU 4EVER! From Norway, joined Jan 2001, 998 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2805 times:
Think of the COMPUTERS needed to handle all the unplanned happenings in an aviation environment,like a plane plummeting down after a decompression in crowded airspace,entering unforeseen turbulence,passenger rage and all other things that happen everyday and that requires split-second decisions,and you'll see this as a veeeeery remote possibility!
And if it should happen,please keep Microsoft out of the airplane building business.Please!!!
Matt D From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 9502 posts, RR: 44
Reply 8, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2803 times:
Agreed. While it will no doubt be technologically possible within the next decade or two, trying to convince the public (and the airlines) to accept such an aircraft is an entirely different matter.
I wouldn't expect to see a pilotless commercial aircraft before the year 2040. But it WILL happen eventually, as peoples natural resistance to change and technology is slowly eroded away (insomuch as it is in many other areas of our everyday lives).
PHX 1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 35 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 2763 times:
I hope there always will be a need for pilots. You may think I'm strange but I trust a human more than computers! And even if computers adventually do take over, there always be a need for somebody to over see what the computers are doing.
Mx727 From Mexico, joined Feb 2001, 122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2733 times:
To fly an aircraft is more than just flying it. A lot of decision making and judgement is needed in every flight in the world and i do not think any computer now has the skills to deal with every day decisions that are taken by pilots.
Anyway, if all professions are taken up by computers, I don't know what we will be doing in the future for living. It seems we all will be without a job and without money to buy a plane ticket for the automated airplanes.
Talking about Microsoft airplanes, I think they will take about 6 minutes to start engines (just like a computer to start).
VH-KCT. I agree with the Ctrl-Alt-Del stuff.
I don't like such a beautiful profession to be taken by technology. lets make technology help us, not destroy us.
242 From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 498 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2730 times:
>>How long will Airline Pilots really be needed?? 20 years or so down the road technology could be so advanced (maybe it already it is starting to become) that the planes will fly themselves<<
It's quite a ways off, but it's inevitable. I'd say at least 50 years.
>>All the aircraft that are being produced now require pilots. They will be in service 20 years from now. So they will still need pilots 20 years from now. It would take at least 8 years for a new pilot-less aircraft to be designed so manufacturing could start. And all the aircraft in the planning stages right now require pilots<<
The new fly-by-wire aircraft will be the easiest to convert to pilot-less technology. The electrical signals that come from the pilots control wheel, rudder pedals. throttles etc... can be replaced with a system of redundant flight computers with little modification to the aircraft itself.
>>Try selling seats on a pilotless aircraft. <<
If the fare is low enough, and the goverment says it's safe, people will get on it.
I'd guess that there will still be one "observer pilot" on board a computer controlled airliner for several years after they're implemented to placate the pilot unions.
But all of this is a long way off. Somone just starting a pilot career now most likely will not be affected.
747_pilot85 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 17 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2727 times:
In my opinion, there will always be a need for pilots. Even when technology evolves and planes are able to fly absolutely by comptuter (even though some are already) there will need to be a pilot to overlook the controls.
Also, I think that a pilot will be more useful in an emergency situation because a programed computer will only do what it is programed to, where as a humanbeing could have several ideas as in what to do.
Therefore, I think there will always be a trained personal aboard any aircraft no matter how advanced technology gets.
Delta-flyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 2676 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2726 times:
Pilots will be around for a long time to come, but never say "never".
It's very revealing that the some arguments posted above for why pilots will never be phased out sound very similar to the arguments 15 years ago about the 2-man cockpit. People were revolted by the notion. You absolutely could not dispense with the flight engineer!
Well, they did! Most of the young guys on this forum never think twice about seeing a 2-man crew fly a 747-400 on a 10 hour flight across the ocean. It's just accepted fact today.
What about the pilotless aircraft? 50 years? 100 years?
Galaxy5 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 2034 posts, RR: 23
Reply 24, posted (13 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 2706 times:
hey this sounds familiar, didnt they say the same thing about the flight engineers and navigators that people wouldnt fly on a palne without one and they are needed in situations of emergencies. dont kid yourself. eventually the airline corps will want to get rid of pilots and the technology is already there. i for one wouldnt want to fly on a pilotless aircraft but i guarantee when the ticket prices on those aircraft are 20% cheaper than the piloted ones the general public will have no quams at all of flying on a pilotless airplane. all when was the last time you heard of a robot or computer going on strike and shutting down a business. pilots will be there own downfall dont forget they are the most expensive employee on the aircraft and the industry is constantly trying to find ways to cut costs.
"damn, I didnt know prince could Ball like that" - Charlie Murphy
: >>>hey this sounds familiar, didnt they say the same thing about the flight engineers and navigators that people wouldnt fly on a palne without one an
: In commercial aviation, I think that pilots will be used for a long time to come. The passengers would probably freak out if they found out that there
27 FBU 4EVER!
: If the dog on the flight deck bit me,I'd bite back and eat his food! What do you know,it might even be better than what some airlines serve their pass
: the mere thought that my dreams of becoming a pilot can be wiped out by some technology expert disgusts me technology can never replace a good pilot o
: The technology exists today. In fact, on modern jetliners the most the pilot is really needed for is to program the waypoints and taxi to the runway.
: >>Military UAV's are not a pointer to the future of civil aircraft, as they don't carry people or have to make a profit.
: Everybody in a job involving constantly improving technology is replacable. It's all a matter of personal preference...convenience...comfort...safety.
: twoterwrench: You talk about emergencies that ended in accident. Pilots handle situations every day that differ from taxiing and program waypoints. It
33 Airbus Lover
: Pilots all the way. Human brain is still the best... hehe
: mx - you are just spouting emotional hoorah at me. I made good points for the reasons I don't think pilots are necessary. I also admitted that good ar
: Welcome to my respected users list Twotterwrench. I agree on the commercial pilots, they are rapidly becoming the bus drivers of the 21'st century, ye
: The traditionalists see everything from today's (and yesterday's) perspective. No one knows exactly how the industry will evolve, what role artificial
37 Red Panda
: pax won't go on the plane if there were no pilots on board. If you were a pax, would you put your life in someone's hand who is on ground? I don't thi
: Red Panda -- No, I would not fly on a plane without a pilot. But my yet unborn great-grandson might. My point is, think outside the box!
: As an airline mechanic, I would never step into a pilotless airliner nor do I see this scenario for at least several generations. Aside from the view
: I would like to bring up a comparable example from another mode of transportation. In the San Francisco Bay Area, we have a mass transit train system
: I think the DLR in London (Docklands Light Rail) is fully automated with no driver. It makes several stops between the Tower Bridge and Lewisham stati
: >>>Aside from the view of the passenger, do you think the non-flying public would allow pilotless aircraft flying and landing over population centers
: I think a pilot will always be needed, in a test done on the discovery channel during a show i was watching, a new airbus( i cant remember the type) w