mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6423 posts, RR: 74 Reply 7, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7898 times:
1. CVR has been opened by NTSC. "No indications of malfunctions."
2. In a parliamentary hearing on Monday, Minister for transportation mentioned a basic timeline. From my blog (http://ow.ly/beIgz
Quote: The Minister stated that the flight plan for the ill-fated second flight was an Instrument Flight Rule flight plan from Halim Airport, to the Pelabuhan Ratu area and back, with a planned altitude of 10,000ft. The flight was planned to take around 30 minutes.
0710UTC aircraft requested engine start.
0721UTC aircraft took off from Runway 06 and climbed to 10,000ft.
0724UTC aircraft contacted ATC at Soekarno Hatta airport along radial 200 from Halim VOR (VHF Omnidirectional Range beacon).
0726UTC aircraft requested to descend to 6,000ft.
0728UTC aicraft requested to make a right orbit over Atang Sanjaya (Bogor) Training Area.
0752UTC ATC attempted to call aircraft as it disappeared from radar.
0755UTC ATC reported the missing aircraft to the Air Traffic Service Coordinator.
0835UTC SAR "Uncertainty Phase" declared.
0905UTC ATC contacted Search and Rescue
0955UTC SAR "Alerting Phase" declared.
1122UTC "Distress Phase" declared after aircraft endurance time elapsed.
This puts the flight path to the collision similar if not identical to part 2 of my analysis at http://ow.ly/beImD :
Quote: For the Cyan coloured items:
1 A line depicting a course of 200° outbound from Halim VOR.
2 A 20 nautical mile radius ring.
The Magenta coloured items:
1 Aircraft took off from runway 06, and made a right turn to intercept the Halim VOR radial 200° whilst climbing to 10,000ft.
2 Aircraft continued on a course of 200° and reached 10,000ft, to enter the Bogor Training Area. The request to descend to 6,000ft and the right hand orbit would be made shortly after this.
3 After entering the training area, a right-hand orbit (360° turn) was made at position HLM200/20 (20 nautical miles from Halim VOR on radial 200°), and the aircraft also descended to 6,000ft. Note: This should keep the aircraft within the training area throughout the orbit turn.
What should have happened then:
4 After completing the orbit, aircraft leaves Bogor Training Area on the same heading before performing the orbit, and it is to obtain Air Traffic Control (ATC) Clearance to head back to Halim for the approach to runway 06.
5 Aircraft would continue to descend to 1600 until performing a visual approach to runway 06, or reach the position of HLM250/5 (5 nautical miles from Halim at radial 250°), and land.
We know points 4 & 5 never happened because the aircraft never made it back to the airport. But why?
The allegations of US Sabotage, made by the Daily Mail and Pravda, is in my opinion, totally ridiculous, Sukhoi/UAC has also stated their disbelief at the allegation.
NTSC has said the investigation, with or without the FDR, will take 12 months to complete. The parliament wants it done in 6 months *aaarrghh!*
I wonder if I left anything behind... Hmm...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
ltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 12687 posts, RR: 13 Reply 9, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7540 times:
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 7): 3 After entering the training area, a right-hand orbit (360° turn) was made at position HLM200/20 (20 nautical miles from Halim VOR on radial 200°), and the aircraft also descended to 6,000ft. Note: This should keep the aircraft within the training area throughout the orbit turn.
I wonder if incorrect information was entered into their computers as to their ground position systems or had incorrect base altitude information entered; that their instruments had readings they were at 6000 ', but actually at a lower altitude. As noted in previous posts, the area of the crash has tight tolerances for error and just being a few 100 feet too low or an 'orbit' a few 100 feet too wide slams you into the mountains. We all know of a number of crashes and incidents where incorrect base numbers were entered into systems to know their altitude and for autopilot systems to be properly set up/
tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 81 Reply 10, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7304 times:
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 5): As noted in previous posts, the area of the crash has tight tolerances for error and just being a few 100 feet too low or an 'orbit' a few 100 feet too wide slams you into the mountains.
How does that work when you're flying IFR (there is no mention of cancelling IFR in the timelines)? No approved IFR flight plan or ATC instruction should get you that close to terrain. Or does Indonesia have different IFR separation rules?
mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6423 posts, RR: 74 Reply 11, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6527 times:
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 5): that their instruments had readings they were at 6000 '
They hit the wall at 6200ft! If they were lower, they would have had a "more survivable" crash at a less remote part of the mountain.
The crash, occured after the orbit was completed. What do you do when you complete the orbit without any further instructions, maintain last heading before entering orbit... so they did, and hit the mountain.
On the diagram, the orbit (magenta 3) occured. But,t the crash site is at 6200ft to the east of the 7191' ft peak, at another peak just a couple of hundred meters to the east (peak 6500' or so)... All previous information that the aircraft crashed at 5200ft was because of the confusion of information during the rescue ops, where the forward command post for the rescuer was at an elevation of 5200ft.
So after the orbit, these guys continued to descend to 6000ft, and went straight... to the mountain.
And FDR is found today...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
That's great news. Thanks for passing it on. Having the FDR may not have any impact on the final analysis, but it will clear the airplane of blame (assuming this was CFIT) and will also put to rest the idiotic accusations the airplane was disabled remotely by a foreign entity in an act of industrial sabotage
David L From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 9301 posts, RR: 42 Reply 14, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6097 times:
Quoting CM (Reply 12): and will also put to rest the idiotic accusations the airplane was disabled remotely by a foreign entity in an act of industrial sabotage
I'm glad to see nobody's taken the bait. It just isn't worth discussing.
Quoting fiscal (Reply 13): Thanks again mandala499 your reports are much appreciated.
All I have to contribute is to recommend that anyone who's interested in this accident should read Mandala499's blog. He's not claiming it's The Answer but it is a well thought out explanation of how it could have happened on a flight that was intended to be routine and without deliberate recklessness by the crew or equipment failure. It's a good starting point for continued discussion and certainly eliminated some of the questions I had initially.
afterburner From Indonesia, joined Jun 2005, 1175 posts, RR: 1 Reply 17, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 5229 times:
Quoting bellancacf (Reply 11): Quoting: "The flight data recorder for a Russian plane that crashed in Indonesia in May has been recovered. Search teams found the black box buried 30 metres underground. "
According to local newspapers, the FDR was found about 30 meters from the tail section of the aircraft.
DIRECTFLT From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 50 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4123 times:
The FDR will not be sent back to Russia per the Indonesian Govt.
On 15 May 2012 it was reported in the local media that the Indonesian government has turned down Russia's request to send back the flight data recorder (to Russia), stating that Indonesian investigators will determine the cause of the crash, while Russian experts will provide support only.
From the Wiki aticle on the Superjet crash. The source for the report is China Daily.
I lost track of this thread, so this news is old by a few days .... picture of DFDR in this news article
Apparently it was buried in a landslide after the crash? Was the aircraft covered by rock in its final resting position? Can't imagine the sequence just now.
However, the flight data recorder — which logged data such as the jet's altitude, speed and route — was buried in a landslide after the plane smashed into the side of Mount Salak, said Daryatmo, chief of Indonesia's search and rescue agency.
He said the recorder was in good condition when nine villagers found it Wednesday in a deep ravine.