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British Airways 744 Replacement?  
User currently offlineboeingfever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 55
Posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 20092 times:

I know they placed firm order for (57) between 1989 & 1999 and have taken deliveries on them since 1999 on (57). Question is: What is BA planning looking to replace their 744 fleet with when they fly their miles? The oldest is pushing 23-24yr old. Is BA looking towards the 748I, 77W, or 787? I know they ordered(12) firm a380 but his is not the bulk of their long haul fleet but thye could look toward Airbus for replacement. T



Thoughts?


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43 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinealoges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8616 posts, RR: 43
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 19884 times:

They've got the 12 A380 and 24 787s on order. As a stopgap to mitigate the delays of the 787, they have ordered a small number of these:

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Photo © Ashley French

two purchased, four leased and four options AFAIK

As for a A350/787/777X decision, it hasn't been made yet: British Airways To Seek Boeing, Airbus Bids.



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User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 6940 posts, RR: 18
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19821 times:

Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
They've got the 12 A380 and 24 787s on order. As a stopgap to mitigate the delays of the 787, they have ordered a small number of these:

How long will they be in service? IIRC didn't one of them crash?



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19753 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
IIRC didn't one of them crash?

YDNRC  

The plane pictured is a 777-300ER:

Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
two purchased, four leased and four options

The plane that flopped just short of the runway at LHR was a 777-200ER of which BA have many more.


User currently offlinecolumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7027 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19751 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
IIRC didn't one of them crash?

A 777-200s was writtten-off.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineCalpe From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2012, 21 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19628 times:

I think BA have also converted two of their four options on the 77W which I have heard are for delivery next year, I wonder if they will convert the final two options soon now they have the BD slots to play with.

User currently offlinegilesdavies From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2985 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 18832 times:

Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
24 787s on order

These are to replace the 767-300s, where they currently have a fleet of 21, which were introduced from 1991...

I am sure I remember some time back the airline said they did not require so many large aircraft as the 747-400 going forward and hence the smaller order for the A380's.

I would imagine the airline going forward, might see a top up order of A380's to bring the fleet up to maybe 20 aircraft, to run the high capacity long haul routes.

I would imagine the majority of 747-400's will be replaced with further large twin jets along the size of the 777-300, but the airline will hold off ordering these until they know what Boeing's plans are for an improved 777-300, that the likes of Emirates are pushing them for. I could see BA being a launch customer.

I think the A350-900/1000 is possible, but unlikely in the fleet. As if the airline can maintain the commonality with their exisiting 777's and replace them over the years like for like with a newer upgraded model, they will.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2886 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 18781 times:

They could go two ways:

1. A350-900 as a 77E replacement, along with a few A350-1000's to replace those 744's not replaced by the A380.

2. B787-9 as a 77E replacement, along with a few B787-10's to replace Atlantic/African 744's with the rest replaced with the 777X and the A380.

Having said that, there are really quite a few of possibilities, and IAG means that BA might be able to get bit of everything to cover all their bases. We could see a fleet that includes a bit of everything, including the 787, A350, 777X and A380.


User currently offlineLofty From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2008, 279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 18571 times:

BA do not like to be launch customer as history shows things can and do go wrong better to be a couple of years behind and get planes that work.

User currently offlinebthebest From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2008, 493 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 18545 times:

As this thread is about the 744 specifically, I wouldn't expect to see anything less than the A350-1000 replacing it, where 777X is above it.

I think BA have timed it well really, as they've got the A380s (777W) to replace the oldest 744 then they can wait and see how the A359 comes out and what Boeing are doing with the 777X before deciding on the rest. They'll also have seen the 747-8I in service so might consider that as well.

By the time they're looking to replace the rest of the 744s they'll also be looking at the early 777s by which time the 789 and A358 will have been in service for a while making that decision easier.

The only problem they'll have is trying to bulk orders with IB, but that won't be a problem too soon as their A340s are still quite new, and they've got A330s replacing the -300s.


User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1462 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 18543 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 7):
They could go two ways:

1. A350-900 as a 77E replacement, along with a few A350-1000's to replace those 744's not replaced by the A380.

2. B787-9 as a 77E replacement, along with a few B787-10's to replace Atlantic/African 744's with the rest replaced with the 777X and the A380.

Seems to me you've got it spot on there.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 7):
Having said that, there are really quite a few of possibilities, and IAG means that BA might be able to get bit of everything to cover all their bases. We could see a fleet that includes a bit of everything, including the 787, A350, 777X and A380.

Within the IAG Group, both 787/777X and A359/A35J is a strong possibility. But, I would think (for example) 787/777X at BA and A350 at IB, I can't see BA operate both 777X and A350.

I still don't completely rule out 748i's at IB, though it must be a very small chance - only if they need 4-holers to replace their A340's.

In another thread, CX_Flyboy reported CX is bleeding heavily with their 744 operations to Europe, and they are not the only airline to do so. It wouldn't surprise me if BA has to replace their 744s earlier than 2018/2019, when the next A350-1000 production slots become available (if not further delayed). And with the 777X not even being launched, BA may very well be forced to add a lot more 77W's....



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User currently offlineGCT64 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 1323 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 17988 times:

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 6):
I would imagine the airline going forward, might see a top up order of A380's to bring the fleet up to maybe 20 aircraft, to run the high capacity long haul routes.

I believe, assuming air travel continues to grow globally over the next 10-20 years, that BA will eventually end up with many more than 20 A380s.

However, in the nearer term I would agree with this statement that more 77Ws, whether bought or leased, look likely:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 10):
It wouldn't surprise me if BA has to replace their 744s earlier than 2018/2019, when the next A350-1000 production slots become available (if not further delayed). And with the 777X not even being launched, BA may very well be forced to add a lot more 77W's....



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User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7255 posts, RR: 17
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 17803 times:

There is always a tendency to discuss the direct replacement of aircraft. Yet when you operate like BA usually operate by buying new aircraft and keeping them flying for most if not all their operational lives, direct replacements may not be a totally accurate description of what is required.

For example 741 G-AWNE was put into service by BOAC in March 1971. It was retired by BA more trhan 28 years later at the end of October 1999. By then it had 107,267 hrs and 22,492 cycles on its clock.

My point here is that in almost 30 years total passenger demand, passenger routes flown, flight frequencies and virtually every parameter you could think of had changed significantly. And you would have pretty clever to have forecast those changes with any accuracy back before November 1968 which was when BOAC ordered 'WE and eleven other 747s.

Despite the above when an aircraft is nearing the end of its useful life it does require replacing. And the tendency is to assume that since there will have been growth in passenger numbers over the years that replacement will be with a larger aircraft. So will the BA 744 replacement be the 380, the 748i or, just possibly, the 77W or its successor?

However IAG / BA management may see the future differently. And some of that future will be constrained or determined by the actions of others. For example will the British Government decide to approve the construction of a new four-runway London airport in the Thames estuary or, possibly, somewhere else? Or will LHR still be London's main airport with just two operational runways in fifteen years time? This factor alone could make the difference between replacing an aging fleet of 744s with a new fleet of 380s or a new fleet of, perhaps, 787s or 350s.

Alternatively they may give up on a British Government ever making its mind up on the future of commercial aviation in the south east of England. So they could buy a fleet of aircraft to fly passengers from the regions into LHR and then out on a few key direct, high density routes such as LHR-JFK, to their new mega hub at MAD and to key European destinations.

In other words IAG'S / BA's management's view of future British Government's actions could play a key role in determining what sized aircraft BA will order.

I am glad that I do not have to make the decision. But if I was forced to do so I would assume that the current and future British Governments would - like their predecessors since the Wing / Cublington replacement London airport was proposed and detailed plans for it formulated in the late 1960s - be indecisive. So I would plan on the basis of turning LHR into primarily a feeder for a MAD hub with hourly 380 flights and buy the 350 or 77W or the Boeing 777 replacement to operate high-frequency direct flights to key long haul destinations such as BOM, DFW, GRU, JFK, MIA and PEK and out of LGW to the most popular long haul holiday destinations.

In the (unlikely?) event of government approval for a second LGW runway being forthcoming everything, of course, would change.


User currently offlineboeingfever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 55
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 23 hours ago) and read 15700 times:



Quoting aloges (Reply 1):
They've got the 12 A380 and 24 787s on order. As a stopgap to mitigate the delays of the 787, they have ordered a small number of these:

787 - replaces 767-300ER
a380 - order is small again compared to the (57) active 744's

When is the a350-1000 EIS date?

[Edited 2012-05-21 08:05:51]


Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1834 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 23 hours ago) and read 15559 times:

Now that 777X is on the table, I strongly believe BA will be among launch customers. I expect all of BA's 744s to be replaced by the mix of options for A380s and new order for a whole bunch of 777-9Xs. Heck, BA might even go for 777-8X/777-8XLR/787-10X combo, once time comes to replace their "legacy" 777s.

Sorry, I don't quite see BA ordering A350XWB. Virgin Atlantic on the other hand...

[Edited 2012-05-21 08:14:11]


All Hail Mighty Triple Seven, The MURDERER of the so-called "Queen"!!!!
User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3073 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 23 hours ago) and read 15428 times:

Quoting boeingfever777 (Reply 13):
a380 - order is small again compared to the (57) active 744's

52 active, two scrapped, three stored at Victorville, CA.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2886 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 23 hours ago) and read 15349 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
So I would plan on the basis of turning LHR into primarily a feeder for a MAD hub with hourly 380 flights and buy the 350 or 77W or the Boeing 777 replacement to operate high-frequency direct flights to key long haul destinations such as BOM, DFW, GRU, JFK, MIA and PEK and out of LGW to the most popular long haul holiday destinations.

Such a scheme would mean BA loses virtually every advantage they have in their home LHR market. The slots that they vacate will be happily snapped up by the competition who will then proceed to (probably very rapidly) erode their core corporate market.

IMO we'll just see more of the same. The combined airline will probably try to focus more connecting continental traffic through MAD to relieve some of the pressure at LHR to allow for further growth, but we will see LHR remaining the core long haul airport for the group.

With this in mind, and the price of oil (which is only going to keep on going up over the lifetime of the next generation fleet), I'd expect a fleet with more steps in capacity so that BA/IB can both reduce inefficiencies and maximise profits. It really could go any way at this stage...


User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3073 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 23 hours ago) and read 15228 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
So I would plan on the basis of turning LHR into primarily a feeder for a MAD hub with hourly 380 flights

Commercial suicide as well as politically a nightmare. You work for BA, you must know why that would fail.


User currently offlinegoosebayguy From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2009, 370 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 22 hours ago) and read 14179 times:

Just think if the Thames Estuary airport is built BA could model itself on Emirates and use A380's for the majority of routes with 777w's for the rest?

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12414 posts, RR: 100
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 21 hours ago) and read 13980 times:
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Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
So will the BA 744 replacement be the 380, the 748i or, just possibly, the 77W or its successor?

I could see all three replacing the 744. The 77W for routes where cargo is an profitable (or more) than passengers. The A380 for heavy passenger routes. The 748i has good 'heavy payload' economics vs. the A380 and not as good of 'floorspace' economics. Thus, I could see the 748i replacing the LGW 744s. But might BA just replace them with 77W/777X and lower the risk of filling the plane? IMHO, the decision on the LGW 744s will seal the fate of a BA 748i.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 12):
For example will the British Government decide to approve the construction of a new four-runway London airport in the Thames estuary or, possibly, somewhere else? Or will LHR still be London's main airport with just two operational runways in fifteen years time?

BA has an unusually tough fleet replacement plan depending if the Thames airport is built or not. If built, fragmentation would rule their fleet planning. If not, then gauge.

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineba319-131 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 8426 posts, RR: 55
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 21 hours ago) and read 13278 times:
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Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):

- There is no BA LGW 744 fleet.....



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User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9106 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 20 hours ago) and read 13062 times:

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 11):
I believe, assuming air travel continues to grow globally over the next 10-20 years, that BA will eventually end up with many more than 20 A380s.
Quoting GCT64 (Reply 11):
I believe, assuming air travel continues to grow globally over the next 10-20 years, that BA will eventually end up with many more than 20 A380s.

I am sure BA will order more than 12+5 A380s eventually


User currently offlineeljonno From Australia, joined Sep 2008, 161 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 11 months 20 hours ago) and read 12963 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
Thus, I could see the 748i replacing the LGW 744s. But might BA just replace them with 77W/777X and lower the risk of filling the plane? IMHO, the decision on the LGW 744s will seal the fate of a BA 748i.
Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 20):
- There is no BA LGW 744 fleet.....

One can dream though...


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7255 posts, RR: 17
Reply 23, posted (1 year 11 months 15 hours ago) and read 10090 times:

Quoting Lofty (Reply 8):
BA do not like to be launch customer as history shows

This is one of those myths that are continuously perpetuated. History actually paints a different picture.

BA were, with EA, the launch customer for the 757 in March 1979. The 752 took to the air for the first time almost three years later in February 1982. It was to be another eleven months before the type entered service.

In August 1987 BA ordered eleven and took out options on another fifteen 763s powered by the RR RB 211-524H, an engine very similar to those powering its new 744s. The first of the BA ordered aircraft took to the air in May 1989. However it was retained by Boeing for eleven months for development and test flying as it was the first RR powered aircraft of its type.

In 1988 BA also ordered eight BAe ATPs soon after the first of the type had been delivered to British Midland in May of that year.

BA ordered 16 747-400s in August 1986. 30 months later in February 1989 the type entered service for the first time with NW. So again BA was an early orderer

In October 1988 BA ordered twenty-four 737s. Although this order was flexible for the 300, 400 or 500 model BA eventually opted for an all 737-400 fleet. This type first entered service with Piedmont. Service entry was also in October 1988. So again BA was an early customer and did not rely on other airlines' operatiuonal experience before ordering the type.

In August 1991 BA ordered 15 777s - five 772As and 10 772IGWs after they had accepted Boeing's December 1988 invitation to join with them and seven other major airlines to help define the characteristics of the proposed new long haul aircraft. The first flight of any 777 followed in June 1994 almost three years after the first BA order. Of course BA was not the "launch" customer. UA had ordered thirty-four in October 1990. But the aircraft had no proved performance when BA placed their order.

More recently BA ordered both the A380 and the B787 before either type had flown let alonbe entered service.

Of course BA was not an early customer for the A320, the A319, the A321, the A318 or the B737 200. But considering all the different types they have ordered, more had not entered commercial service at the date of their order than had already been in service at that date.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 17):
Commercial suicide as well as politically a nightmare.

Commercial suicide? Perhaps. But better than doing nothing and fading away. Do not expect the demand for air travel to stop growing. And if it does not and if government does not take the bull by the horns and cease the dithering of the last 45 years what other solution is there?

Excepting the unusual LCY runway the last new paved runway to be laid down in southeast England was inaugurated on 8 June 1958 by Queen Elizabeth. It was built on what was previously a grass airstrip and a racecourse. Today it remains LGW's only runway. Since it was opened the phenomenal growth in air transport has been on the same number of runways that existed in 1958. The gain of the new LCY runway was balanced by the loss of LHR's former Runway 05/23. It became useless as it crossed 09R/27L in front of T4.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 17):
You work for BA, you must know why that would fail.

I guess I should be flattered that you think at my age - see my profile - i work. Perhaps I should be even more flattered that you think I work for BA. But my only work involvement with any part of the aviation industry was as an airline passenger and, for a brief period in the early 1980s, as a supplier of an essential consumable to airlines and airframe and aeroengine manufacturers.

No. To me commercial aviation has only been a hobby dating back to my long cycle rides from home to sit on the grass on the north side of LHR in time to watch the early morning Stratocruisers and Connies finish their North Atlantic crossings.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 16):
Such a scheme would mean BA loses virtually every advantage they have in their home LHR market. The slots that they vacate will be happily snapped up by the competition who will then proceed to (probably very rapidly) erode their core corporate market.

In my suggestion I do not see BA operating any fewer LHR slots than they will after fully absorbing BD. Indeed I expect they will manage to add a few more most years as they have in all but one of the last ten years. However I do foresee a continued significant growth in passenger demand particularly to and fromboth existing and new long haul destinations particularly in the world's emerging economies. If this demand cannot be met by runway space in the UK then it will need to be met elsewhere.

I do not see IAG sitting back and letting AF/KL plus AMS and CDG, LH plus FRA and/or EK plus DXB (or its successor) ship passengers to and from their hubs from and to the UK in larger and larger aircraft without responding. Clearly a VLA shuttle service to IAG's other hub at MAD while retaining as many flights to key destinations from LHR as is possible is a better option than stagnation and surrendering market share to the competition.

Recognise here that last time BA was in the market for in a long haul fleet renewal programme few would have predicted that BA would be operating 7 744s, 3 772s and a 77W to NYC each and every day. But today they are.

How many flights will be needed to meet demand to NYC in another 25 years? And by then will no other destinations require the equivalent of four, five, six or even seven flights every day, be they direct or indirect? If they do then clearly if there is still no new runway in the southeast of England IAG / BA will need to find another solution to remain competitive. What's your suggestion if mine is so wrong?


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12414 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (1 year 11 months 15 hours ago) and read 9763 times:
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Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 20):
- There is no BA LGW 744 fleet.....

My bad. I thought BA has a high density 744 fleet. Am I incorrect? I assumed they would predominantly operate out of LGW. Does BA operate 744s out of LGW?

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
25 gingersnap : All 772 for the long haul routes out of LGW the last I checked. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure it's all T7 out of LGW.
26 Post contains images aamd11 : They have "higher" density Mid-J configurations of 337 seats (in contrast to the Hi-J configuration of 291 seats), but these are by no means high den
27 VV701 : BA operated the 747 out of LGW until June 2002. At the start of the Summer 2002 Schedules BA had two 744s based at LGW, both operating LGW-MCO-LGW. T
28 YYZAMS : I recently watched the documentary about how BA got their 747s that someone posted on here. How time flies and fleets modernize quickly. Any documenta
29 YULWinterSkies : Anybody else out there thinking that BA is so slow on the A380 (only 12 orders) because they want to wait until Airbus makes up their mind with the -9
30 qf002 : Move IB upmarket, and use MAD as the hub for traffic currently connecting from BA's European services to BA's long haul services. Even if only half o
31 DocLightning : I doubt that BA ordered as many as ten of these aircraft as a "stopgap." Ten is a respectable fleet of a type that many airlines only wish they could
32 aquariusHKG : I think you might have confused with VS's LGW fleet
33 Post contains links VV701 : It is not. But there are second line destinations served by BA from LHR in the southern hemisphere and MAD is just a fraction west of being due south
34 par13del : Why vacate slots, they would be needed to service the shuttle flights to MAD. Well if I follow the logic, by the time BA looks to implement this the
35 qf002 : Here we definitely agree. The shape of the company for the next 20-30 years will be determined by the fleet decisions that are made over the next few
36 par13del : Even without VV701 clarifictaions, slots at LHR are valuable, history has shown that flights are run just as place holders for slots using ATR's fore
37 skipness1E : Given LH and AF / KLM have more connectivity and on one stop only?
38 qf002 : Any other competitor is going to leap on this enormous weakness that the company would be creating for themselves. skipness1E's examples of LH and AF
39 Post contains links Bthebest : I think BA are unfortunate to be stuck in the limbo of not knowing what the future of airport infrastructure in the London region will look like. Alth
40 par13del : Agree, but BA would be doing the best it can in our hypothetical scenario, besides, its also one of the reason why airlines push their frequent flyer
41 jumpjets : On a slightly differnt note I was wondering about the repalcement of the LGW short haul fleet. I guess with a number of additional ex-BMI airbuses in
42 Bongodog1964 : BA normally transfer a number of A319's to LGW for the summer season. At one point some were LGW based, before the short haul routes were cut back. I
43 VV701 : For the last several years BA has always transferred two or three 319s from its LHR to its LGW fleet for the summer season. This year G-EUPV and 'VT
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How Many 744 Does British Airways Operate? posted Tue May 25 2004 22:27:19 by Cathay744
British Airways Upgrades Newark Facilities posted Wed Apr 4 2012 10:39:26 by bsmalls
British Airways Film 'BOY' Released! posted Wed Apr 4 2012 09:16:49 by speedbird9