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Future Oneworld Members  
User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 221 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 11774 times:

Several Oneworld members are already busy enough with their own restructuring plus the additions of MH, IT (if they survive), BD and potential addition of JJ, however are their any other airlines that are likely to join the alliance? A few obvious holes in the alliance network are Mainland China, a Global Middle East carrier and Africa. Are there any plans for the alliance to fill these holes?

42 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3429 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 11642 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Thread starter):
Several Oneworld members are already busy enough with their own restructuring plus the additions of MH, IT (if they survive), BD and potential addition of JJ, however are their any other airlines that are likely to join the alliance? A few obvious holes in the alliance network are Mainland China, a Global Middle East carrier and Africa. Are there any plans for the alliance to fill these holes?

As mentioned in past threads on this topic, I believe there is consensus among A.net members that oneworld really needs a mainland China partner and a domestic Indian carrier. It could fit the bill if they survive as you mentioned, and mainland China could be filled by HU (Hainan) however they compete directly with long-standing oneworld member CX out of HKG. CX and CA (Air China of Star Alliance) have a partnership, so if that deepens either we'll see CA move to oneworld or CX leave oneworld for Star, allowing HU to fill the gaps in both HKG and mainland China (not that it would be perfect substitute).

MH joining would certainly help strengthen oneworld in South East Asia.
It is assumed that JJ will join.
And BA is consolidating their leading position in the UK with the BD acquisition.
AA is being restructured and should emerge a stronger carrier (whether merged with US or as a stand-alone) and they most certainly will remain in oneworld.

Africa is the other gaping hole in the oneworld route/ hub map. BA's franchise partner Comair in South Africa provides decent southern Africa feed to carriers serving the south, however, with no large network carrier on the Continent, oneworld is at a definite disadvantage (though not a large one given the adequate coverage of the continent by BA/ IB/ other oneworld carrier).

Apart from filling the India/ China/ Africa holes, I hope oneworld focuses on smaller niche carriers who can plug the gaps. the loss of Malev in Central/ Eastern Europe hasn't been fully compensated for by AB. Perhaps there is room for a small Central/ Eastern Europe carrier.

IG (Air Meridiana of Italy) would be a nice addition to add to a growing European network, as would PL (Pluna) to round out the South American coverage.

Few holes would exist- getting carriers like B6, AS and WS would be fantastic but at the moment seems unlikely given the benefits those carriers derive from remaining unaligned.

EI could be brought back into the alliance if IAG made a play for the company. BE would also be a nice addition (and IAG already own a small piece of the company.

You mention a Global Middle East Carrier- while I think it unlikely, IAG has mentioned QR while AA is cozying up with EY. QR seems more likely to be a Star Alliance candicate, while EY could work with RJ and be a nice addition to oneworld.

I think we've pretty much covered the entire globe by now! 

Just my thoughts on oneworld!

Cheers,
AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineflythere From Hong Kong, joined May 2010, 438 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 11605 times:

Prospect of TP as well? Is IAG's plan of getting ownership of TP still on?

User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 11419 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
as would PL (Pluna) to round out the South American coverage.

May be difficult for oneworld to add new members in South America, should JJ join the global alliance, as several fellow anetters appear to believe. LA and its affiliates in Peru, Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina, along with JJ and its leading market position in Brasil and LA itself in Chile, already dominate the region.

The IATA code for PLUNA is PU


User currently offlineiFlyLOTs From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 453 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 11127 times:

Could we be seeing them courting a Central American carrier? or is AA and LA's coverage of the area sufficient? I feel like while oneworld didn't lose everything with MX but they did leave a large hole in Mexico.

And what About AT for being a Northern African carrier? IAG owns a part of them, I'm sure that they would bring a lot to the alliance. That would just leave a Central Africa as a gap to be filled.

I think that oneworld should've gone for 9W instead of IT in India, they've been in the industry a while and have proven that they can keep flying despite the bad economy without losing bundles of money and returning all but a few planes.



"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
User currently offlineIndependence76 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 11089 times:

North America:

JetBlue is highly unlikely. US (without a merger) would remain in Star Alliance. Alaska was recently called "the codeshare slut" of the market and I see them staying independent for the foreseeable future. As for Canada, Westjet does not seem likely at all. They already have good ties with Southwest. A replacement for Canadian Airlines does not seem possible.

Mexicana will unlikely fly again (from what it appears), so Mexico is open. Volaris, to me, is the best choice. Latin America can be handled just fine with AA's MIA base as well as some LAN connections.

South America:

It appears LATAM will jump to Oneworld, as AviancaTaca Group is in the process of a large Star Alliance network for the region. AA's and LAN's presense is stable.

Europe:

No immediate concerns. IAG is fine, Malev's bankruptcy was quickly replaced with Air Berlin's entry into the alliance, and other carriers are considering assistance or ownership via IAG. The only true hiccup one could notice would be the 9-month delay on BER's opening. It would be a great connection point for Asian passengers looking to avoid LHR (should partners announce BER direct).

Asia:

Two key markets are missing: Mainland China and India. As for China, Hainan is likely the most logical choice. I don't see CX moving an inch in terms of "alliance experimentation" with other partners. Dragonair still has plenty of Chinese connections, albeit not being the size of other major carriers.

With Kingfisher near its demise, I can imagine Oneworld is having discussions with Jet Airways on stand-by. I don't see Oneworld touching Air India with the recent Star Alliance joining embarrassment.

Australasia

Qantas is sorting out their union issues. The fleet is being updated and the route network is overall good.

The current talk of the town and debate ensuing has to do with Air Tahiti Nui. Their recent announcement of intent to join Oneworld has brought deniers and discussions to the table. I personally see them joining Oneworld as soon as the restructuring is complete. Air Berlin is often called a "holiday airline" but got into the alliance with little to no issue. Air Tahiti Nui, considering the connections in NRT, LAX, and SYD should have no problems.



"In general, pride is at the bottom of all great mistakes." - John Ruskin
User currently offlinenzrich From New Zealand, joined Dec 2005, 1521 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 11036 times:

Quoting Independence76 (Reply 5):
Air Tahiti Nui, considering the connections in NRT, LAX, and SYD should have no problems.

They no longer fly to SYD . They codeshare from AKL to SYD . Interestingly the PPT-AKL route is partnered with star alliance member NZ .



"Pride of the pacific"
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2349 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 10774 times:

There are plenty of good opportunities out there, the problem is that *O has been slow to exploit them.

North America
  • B6 is needed for their JFK slots and would solidify AA/OW's position in JFK. Personally, I think this should be one of the highest priorities of *O as it directly impacts the AA/BA JV.

South America

  • 5L would help to round out *O's S. American presence unless LA is planning on starting up a LAN Bolivia organically.
  • PU is a potential member as they already codeshare with AA and IB.


Europe

  • EI - Even though Willie Walsh said EI wasn't a good investment, I still believe they could serve a valuable role in OW.
  • TP - Would round out *O's dominance on the Iberian peninsula and ensure its dominance to latin america.
  • IG - Meridiana already codeshares with five *O carriers, and would finally give OW a better Mediterranean presence.
  • DY - There are reports that suggest they are interested in *O and that AY and DY will work together in some alliance. I'm not sure how though.
  • OA - Currently have no alliance presence with the denial of the A3 merger and would round out *O's Mediterranean traffic.

Africa

The only real chances *O has on the continent is to organically grow a particular carrier or convince one of the current airlines to switch alliances.
  • DT - Has been improving over the years, and with some further assistance could become a valuable member to the alliance. They do have a codeshare with BA, but they have one with AF and LH as well.
  • W3 - Could have been a good option, but like many things in Nigeria, it looks like the carrier is becoming a basket case.
  • TU - Has expressed interest in joining *O, but like all N. African carriers, their geographical location makes for a poor intra-continental hub.
  • AT - IAG has a .095% holding(AF has 2.86%). However, their geographical location means the much of their network can be replicated by IB.

Asia

  • HU - Getting Hainan into *O is one of the alliance's biggest priorities. With AA's new codeshare, I think the writing is on the wall.
  • 9W - If the Indian govt forbids 9W from joining *A, then *O has a chance to convince them to join. The problem is 9W's BRU operations and the lack of any real *O presence there.


Oceania

This region is a prime example of my earlier statement regarding *O's lack of initiative. By just adding two small airlines , *O could dominate most of the S. Pacific, but they sit by and do nothing as usual.

  • FJ - Should have become a member long ago. They mainly codeshare with *O airlines and are 46% owned by QF.
  • TN - Another carrier with strong ties to *O. They codeshare with AA, JL, QF, and they use many OW lounges for their premium passengers.




The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlinecx flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6585 posts, RR: 55
Reply 8, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 10698 times:

Air Zimbabwe perhaps?

User currently offlineiFlyLOTs From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 453 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 10524 times:

Quoting cx flyboy (Reply 8):
Air Zimbabwe perhaps?

Didn't they fold?

Side question that I'm gonna try and work into relating to the topic (wish me luck)
Has an alliance ever started an airline to help them in an area where they have limited coverage?
I ask this because then OW could start an airline for one of the more stable countries in Africa where there is no real flag carrier (i.e. Ghana), and then use that as both the national airline and then use it to also serve destinations for the alliance? Maybe even get the local government to help them out, split the costs and the profits, so that they can get a stable flag carrier.



"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 10468 times:
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Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
5L would help to round out *O's S. American presence unless LA is planning on starting up a LAN Bolivia organically.

Not going to happen.

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
PU is a potential member as they already codeshare with AA and IB.

LAN would object to PU joining oneworld since that carrier competes with LAN-TAM on several routes and operates domestic flights with-in Chile.


User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2349 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 10103 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 10):
Not going to happen.

Ok that answer was too short. Which isn't going to happen, 5L or LAN Bolivia? Anything to do with Evo Morales?
I can't imagine that LAN will let the Bolivian market go untouched.



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2948 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9896 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
You mention a Global Middle East Carrier- while I think it unlikely, IAG has mentioned QR while AA is cozying up with EY. QR seems more likely to be a Star Alliance candicate, while EY could work with RJ and be a nice addition to oneworld.

Add to that the fact that QF and EK are reportedly in talks and it becomes a nightmare. EY would not sit well with QF, given that they are a major VA partner having ditched their codeshare agreement with QF a couple of years ago.

It's all a bit of a mess when it comes to the ME airlines. Ultimately, I don't see any of them joining an alliance unless there's a big hit to their traffic.

As for the other various suggestions -- I see HU joining in the next few years but not much else. Something will need to be done about India soon, but that all hinges on IT and the government's decision on 9W.

FJ is a very strong possibility, given their major relaunch next year. It would be very appropriate for them to jump into OW as they mix up their strategy -- more formal relationships with AA, QF and CX would be useful for providing further long haul feed. FJ will be far more valuable for OW than TN.

It will be interesting to see what happens...


User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 580 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9770 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 7):
5L would help to round out *O's S. American presence unless LA is planning on starting up a LAN Bolivia organically.

AeroSur is no longer flying. Its last flight was exactly a week ago.  



JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2349 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9751 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 12):
FJ will be far more valuable for OW than TN.

Maybe, but what does it hurt to have both? Also, I do like that TN would put OW metal on the LAX-CDG route.

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 13):
AeroSur is no longer flying. Its last flight was exactly a week ago.

Oh wow!!! I didn't know they officially shut down. Last I saw they sent out a statement saying that operations were up and running. Sad.

[Edited 2012-05-22 23:41:26]


The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2948 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9570 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 14):
Maybe, but what does it hurt to have both? Also, I do like that TN would put OW metal on the LAX-CDG route.

I guess not, it's just really not OW's style. That sounds like the sort of thing * would say!!


User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 9477 times:

I think Europe is fine, but I do agree that more coverage in Asia and particularly Africa would be useful. Think in terms of competition to EK, for instance. How does OW funnel all those passengers to where they want to go? Instead of letting EK do it... Right now, the small number of flights to Africa do cover the most important and profitable traffic to Johannesburg and other few cities, but the continent is otherwise pretty unreachable. Sadly, I don't see OW companies as capable as founding any new activity there. (If it were LH, they might do something similar to what they've done in Switzerland or Italy.)

User currently offlineliamh91 From Australia, joined Feb 2012, 5 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 9234 times:

In regards to Africa, could SA be tempted over? They already have an extensive trans-Indian alliance with QF.

User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2349 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 9183 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 15):
I guess not, it's just really not OW's style. That sounds like the sort of thing * would say!!

True, but if TN asks to join, I can't see OW turning them down.



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineboeingorbust From Canada, joined Oct 2011, 165 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 9137 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):

Few holes would exist- getting carriers like B6, AS and WS would be fantastic but at the moment seems unlikely given the benefits those carriers derive from remaining unaligned.
Quoting Independence76 (Reply 5):
JetBlue is highly unlikely. US (without a merger) would remain in Star Alliance. Alaska was recently called "the codeshare slut" of the market and I see them staying independent for the foreseeable future. As for Canada, Westjet does not seem likely at all. They already have good ties with Southwest. A replacement for Canadian Airlines does not seem possible.

I can't see WS happening as well. They're getting too many benefits from not remaining committed to an alliance. Also WS did have a tentative agreement with SW to do codeshares however that was cancelled and now there are no codeshare arrangements. Only with AA and DL for American carriers.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7390 posts, RR: 17
Reply 20, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7648 times:

Quoting flythere (Reply 2):
Prospect of TP as well? Is IAG's plan of getting ownership of TP still on?

I think that any IAG purchase of TP is now very much on the back burner. They have seen the severe indigestion that LH has experienced by tackling too many additions to the family at one time. Of course a major contributor to that indigestion was BD. So I suspect that BA will focus on absorbing BD and that IAG will not be looking for further acquisitions until BD is fully and successfully integrated into BA.


User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2349 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7450 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 20):
Of course a major contributor to that indigestion was BD

As far as I know there hasn't been any "indigestion" cause by the BD merger. As I've said before, One British LHR-based carrier absorbing another is as easy as it gets.

Truthfully, BA should be able to assimilate BD and purchase TP, as TP will remain an separate brand like IB.

[Edited 2012-05-23 04:48:43]


The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineQFVHOQA From Australia, joined Mar 2012, 416 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7310 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 21):
As far as I know there hasn't been any "indigestion" cause by the BD merger. As I've said before, One British LHR-based carrier absorbing another is as easy as it gets.

I think the indigestion was referring to LH's purchase of BD, rather than BA's purchase. As much as BD gave LH a lot of trouble, they managed to gain quite a few LHR slots.

Oneworld should focus on the gaping holes in Africa, China & India before shoring up Europe. With the EU economy in such poor shape, the growth will come from China & India. As others have said HU is one of the few options left in mainland China, unless they can lure MU away from Skyteam. 9W would be the best option in India, even if IT survives. And as long as AI continues to be meddled with by the government it will be useless to an alliance.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8280 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7236 times:
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Africa a a problem for OW but Africa offers few quality airlines. SAA wouls have fit beautifully into OW but Star got them. Ethiopian and Egyptair joined Star too, so they have all of east Africa. Kenya Air is Skyteam's main African airline. One viable option for OW is Arik Air in Nigeria, with the country's long ties to teh UK this would seem natural. TAAG in Angola could be a possibility.

User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7390 posts, RR: 17
Reply 24, posted (2 years 2 months 4 days ago) and read 6612 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 21):
As far as I know there hasn't been any "indigestion" cause by the BD merger.

I was clearly referring to the indigestion LH experienced after their take-over of BD.

In their last financial report Lufthansa Group attributed nearly all of the poor financial performance that they reported to the BD situation. I believe that the indigestion experienced by the Lufthansa Group would have been less if their eye had not been taken off the BD ball by their concurrent investments in LX, OS and SN. I was suggesting that BA might well have learned from the Lufthansa Group's experience.

As a result of the above I believe BA and IAG management will totally focus their attention on managing the integration of BD and BA, on quickly reducing BD's high operational losses that hit Lufthansa Group so hard and on desposing of bmi Regional and bmiBaby.

I will therefore say again that I think as a result of their purchase of BD and the challenge this presents and recognising the former problems of Lufthansa Group any move by IAG on TP is likely to be very much on the back burner.


25 migair54 : I think Arik is the best one, it´s in a great place for connectivity to west and central africa to Europe and America, and not far to go to some plac
26 iFlyLOTs : why not? Comair?
27 TWA85 : As for Africa, W3 would be good for much of west Africa and an expanded MN would but great for southern Africa. Also what about 5H for east Africa? Al
28 superjeff : But Lufthansas still owns a piece of B6. I can't see them joining oneWorld because of that.
29 AA1818 : Thanks for that! Is there much overlap though? Wouldn't PU be complementary? That would be great, Though BA's Franchise partner Comair wouldn't be to
30 EddieDude : Volaris is a LCC with no premium class cabin and no f.f. program. Moreover, it has a cooperation agreement (in place or in the works) with WN. I thin
31 Byrdluvs747 : I disagree. Part of what lured ET and SA to *A was the opportunity of connecting with so many carriers, especially in Europe. At the time, Oneworld's
32 iFlyLOTs : They're 49% owned by Virgin so I doubt that they'll be joining the alliance any time soon
33 aeroblogger : Why? AI would be a partner for OW which is guaranteed to not go bankrupt, will likely be very alliance friendly (provide lots of feed), and will give
34 iFlyLOTs : I somewhat agree with what you're saying, they will not go bankrupt -which is good for any OW member- and they will provide a lot of feed. However, t
35 Post contains images aeroblogger : The government messes around in favor of AI's partners. Mark my words - the day AI enters Star Alliance (if it happens), will be the the day Lufthans
36 MillwallSean : Oneworld, sometimes when we speak about them we forget whats realistic and not come up with ideas that really only would happen in fantasy worlds. Wha
37 liamh91 : Wouldn't having the full amadeus suite make it easier for SA to move over? Seven out of the 11 oneworld airlines use Altea and ARES. And isn't comair
38 jumpjets : What about LOT? BA and AA used to be pretty close to LOT - but the then Polish govt preferred Star - now LOT is to be privatised might we see the old
39 MillwallSean : It wont since SA has the Star Alliance version of Amadeus. The only way SA would ever change is if the politicians decided that SA must. Luckily for
40 LJ : Weren't there reports that LH wanted to sell its stake in B6? Isn't this airline not rumored to be a future Skyteam member? Maybe you can better reve
41 BOStonsox : There were, but even if LH doesn't sell its stake it won't stop B6 from joining OneWorld (and that is assuming that they don't want it to- it joining
42 Talaier : I agree on China and India being the big holes. Everything else is, for the moment, pretty much filled. An extra airline in South East Asia, North Afr
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