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Airbus Outlook: 60 A380+A350 Sales/60% NB Market  
User currently offlinerheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2213 posts, RR: 5
Posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 18946 times:

From Airbus we receive confident messages in several areas. Leahy and the program managers set the bar quite high with their newest predictions. IMO there is a considerable risk, that they will fail to achieve these goals. Kudos to Airbus if they indeed would deliver that.

Here are the claims:
- 30 A380 sales in 2012
- 30 A350 sales in 2012
- A380 sale to CX hinted
- 60% long term market share lead for the NEO

Source (only in German):
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/wi...agsschub-fuer-a380_aid_758025.html

119 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJack From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 18754 times:

30 net A350 sales would be good as they are currently net -7 at the end of April.

30 A380 sales, especially to new customers like CX would be ground breaking.....


User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 728 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 18701 times:

I admit I read a Google Translate version of the article, but I could not see the reference to 30 A350 sales in 2012. It would be quite disappointing if true though. The firming of AF's order alone would contribute 25.

User currently offlineDrStrange From Germany, joined Jul 2007, 48 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 18640 times:

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 2):

The reference to the A350s is just that: a reference.
The article says that Leahy thinks that the same number of sales for the A350 as for the A380 are realistic for this year (2012).
 Smile

[Edited 2012-05-25 05:15:56]

User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 728 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 18565 times:

Quoting DrStrange (Reply 3):
The article says that Leahy thinks that the same number of sales for the A350 as for the A380 are realistic for this year (2012).

Thank you! The translation of that sentence by Google was somewhat convoluted.


User currently offlineAustrianZRH From Austria, joined Aug 2007, 1373 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 18571 times:

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 2):
I admit I read a Google Translate version of the article, but I could not see the reference to 30 A350 sales in 2012.

It's a hint in the first paragraph:

Quoting focus.de:

„Es wird nicht einfach, aber wir wollen in diesem Jahr Bestellungen für 30 A380 einsammeln“, sagte Airbus-Verkaufschef John Leahy am Donnerstag in Toulouse – gut sechs Wochen vor der großen Luftfahrtmesse im britischen Farnborough. Auch beim neuen Langstreckenjet A350 hält Leahy diese Größenordnung für realistisch.

translates to

Quoting focus.de translation:

"It's not going to be easy, but we want to collect orders for 30 A380 this year," Airbus chief of sales John Leahy said in Toulouse this Thursday - approximately six weeks before the big air show in Farnborough. For the new long haul jet A350, a number in the same ballbark is considered to be realistic by Leahy.



WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3382 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 18526 times:

Quoting Jack (Reply 1):
30 A380 sales, especially to new customers like CX would be ground breaking.....

He doesn't normally make predictions like this unless he's pretty confident of some sales - Farnborough should be interesting 


User currently offlineba319-131 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 8507 posts, RR: 55
Reply 7, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 18374 times:
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Airbus must be quite confident of 30 A380 sales to state that number so far into the year, I suspect BA could well be a taker for some of those 30.

Let's see how the year pans out......



111,732,3,4,5,7,8,BBJ,741,742,743,744,752,762,763,764,772,77L,773,77W,L15,D10,30,40,AB3,AB6,A312.313,319,320,321,332,333
User currently offlinesolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 851 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 18273 times:

I smell A380 upgrade at Farnborough Air Show...

//Mike   



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlinecmf From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 18204 times:

Quoting Jack (Reply 1):
30 net A350 sales would be good as they are currently net -7 at the end of April.

He is not talking about net.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6870 posts, RR: 63
Reply 10, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 18165 times:

Thirty x A380 was the number they offered at the January news conference. Nothing new there but good to see that they still think they'll make it.

It would also mean that the backlog doesn't decrease.

And 30 A350s? Can't see why not. As was noted, the AFKL order should take care of most of that.

What I wonder about is more A330 sales. There aren't many airlines left to order them.  

All of the above, of course, may be knocked off course by the row over carbon trading...  


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6836 posts, RR: 46
Reply 11, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 18052 times:

Leahy's job requires optimism-I find no fault in that. He has made predictions before that have come to pass-and others that have not. From what I have read by CX insiders I would be very surprised if they order the A380, and even more if they order this year. I gathered they were holding out for the A389; if they order the A388 then that says to me that Airbus has told CX that the A389 is not going to happen, at least not soon. As to the 60% prediction, I doubt it. That would require winning over some major 737 operators, and I have not seen any sign of that happening. In fact, if anything the trend seems to be more the other way. While Airbus did breach AA, they did not win the whole order, and meanwhile, both DL and UA, which had substantial A320 fleets have ordered only the 737 so far, and it looks like UA is going exclusively 737. Boeing is obviously doing everything they can to maintain the performance parity that exists between the 737 and the A320; and they probably are working on the NSA in the background in case the MAX falls short. So far all of the big NEO orders I have seen have been from A320 fleets. If Airbus does get 60% of the sales then it will only mean that far more A320 operators are trading in than 737 operators, and again, I do not see this as likely.


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12353 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 18031 times:

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012...n-days-synopsis-of-a-lot-of-stuff/ has a run-down of this event. The stuff most germane to this discussion is:

Quote:

A320 v 737: If the war of words over the A350 wasn’t enough, Leahy—and to a lesser extent, Williams, whose focus was principally the A380—repeated the Airbus messaging begun last November at the Credit Suisse conference in New York that fan size does matter and the 737 MAX comes up short. Airbus figures the MAX at best (pre-dating the recent Boeing changes) will gain 8% over the 737NG. We asked Leahy later about the move by Boeing to take the CFM LEAP-1B fan size to 69.4 inches and to add the “Boeing Advanced Technology Winglets” (BATW) to the MAX. Boeing now claims the MAX will be a 13% improvement over the NG. Leahy, who compared the BATW with the MD-11 winglets, said Boeing will get only about one-half percent improvement from this. The 69.4 inch fan still falls short, he said.

Williams, a former engine engineer, said the hotter temperatures and ceramics technology required of the LEAP-1B, will present maintenance challenges.

Wait on that weight: Boeing for years emphasizes that the 737 is a lighter airplane than the A320. Are the tables about to turn? Airbus thinks the redesigned MAX will be 700kg heavier than the A320neo. We shall see.

Isn't marketing grand?

Boeing now claims the MAX will be a 13% improvement over the NG.

Airbus figures the MAX at best (pre-dating the recent Boeing changes) will gain 8% over the 737NG.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Thread starter):
60% long term market share lead for the NEO

Doubtful, IMHO.

In http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/n...e-a320neo-will-win-60.html?ana=twt we read:

Quote:

Airbus supremacy isn’t an idea that will sit easy in Boeing country, where Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh, at the May 15 Boeing Investors Conference, said about single-aisle competition: “We’re not going to let Airbus position themselves to have a disproportionate market share.”

“We do not want them to get to 60 and us 40,” Albaugh continued. “They then come down the learning curve faster, they get pricing power in the market, it’s a slippery slope for us to be on.”

Albaugh tends to be under-spoken, especially when compared to Leahy et al. There are lots of reasons why it'd be very hard for Airbus to get to "long term" 60% market share, and lots of things Boeing can do to react should the trend be clearly going that way, and IMHO Albaugh's statement says they are not going to let it happen.

Some other articles to feed our discussion (all here are in English):

http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.as...d6ef5b-81c4-4062-a24f-f266bf9b8f38

http://boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2012/05/strength_in_numbers.html



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineAAplat4life From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 181 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 18007 times:

I have a hard time seeing that many more A380 sales until the wing crack fix is more certain. Published news reports hinted at a delay here, and the media will be all over this issue.

User currently offlineWolbo From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 485 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 17649 times:

Quoting AAplat4life (Reply 13):

I have a hard time seeing that many more A380 sales until the wing crack fix is more certain. Published news reports hinted at a delay here, and the media will be all over this issue.

Completely disagree. In terms of new A380 orders the wing crack problem is a non-issue. The fixed wings, with the new rib design, will be delivered from 2014 onwards and no airline that places a new A380 order will get those planes delivered before that.


User currently offlinePanAm1971 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 390 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 17534 times:

I wonder if the slide in the Euro will help with sales outside the Eurozone? I'm sure it's not that simple. On the other hand, I'm sure it doesn't hurt. Perhaps big orders to China?

User currently offlinenipoel123 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2011, 267 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 17099 times:

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 15):
Perhaps big orders to China?

Not going to happen as long as the Emission Trading Scheme is there, China is a giant opponent to this.



one mile of road leads to nowhere, one mile of runway leads to anywhere
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 51
Reply 17, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 16730 times:

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 15):
I wonder if the slide in the Euro will help with sales outside the Eurozone? I'm sure it's not that simple. On the other hand, I'm sure it doesn't hurt. Perhaps big orders to China?

I'm not sure about China. For them to place a big Airbus order now would mean they would 'loose face' on the ETS issue. That's not going to happen.

Quoting Wolbo (Reply 14):
In terms of new A380 orders the wing crack problem is a non-issue. The fixed wings, with the new rib design, will be delivered from 2014 onwards and no airline that places a new A380 order will get those planes delivered before that.

Well, with QR refusing A-380 deliveries between now and 2014, that will throw a new wrinkle into the delivery schedule of the A-380. QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year. The rib feet crack issue is far from a 'non-issue' if airlines are refusing deliveries.

We are nearly half way through 2012 now, and Airbus has only delivered 8 A-380s to date. In 2011, Airbus delivered 26 A-380s, so at that rate, Airbus should have delivered 12 or 13 Whale Jets by now. Instead Airbus is on a pace of about their 2010 delivery schedule when they delivered 18 airplanes.

That means the earliest SQ could get any A-380s delivered will be about 2017. They (SQ) could get B-747-8Is by about 2015.


User currently offlineWolbo From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 485 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 15975 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
Well, with QR refusing A-380 deliveries between now and 2014, that will throw a new wrinkle into the delivery schedule of the A-380. QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year. The rib feet crack issue is far from a 'non-issue' if airlines are refusing deliveries.

What part of "new A380 orders" do you not understand?

QR was scheduled to receive it's first A380 in October 2013 and iirrc this was the only one they were scheduled to receive next year so I'm not sure on what you base your wisdom that "QR has 10 A-380s scheduled to be delivered beginning in 2013. All of those are now pushed back at least one year." Do you have a source for this statement?

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
We are nearly half way through 2012 now, and Airbus has only delivered 8 A-380s to date. In 2011, Airbus delivered 26 A-380s, so at that rate, Airbus should have delivered 12 or 13 Whale Jets by now. Instead Airbus is on a pace of about their 2010 delivery schedule when they delivered 18 airplanes.

Airbus has stated that the wing-rib crack issue has caused a slowing down of production but that it expects to meet its delivery target of 30. Perhaps you missed this: www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/us-airbus-a-idUSBRE83P0A520120426


Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
That means the earliest SQ could get any A-380s delivered will be about 2017. They (SQ) could get B-747-8Is by about 2015.

And how is that relevant? As far as I'm aware SQ is not in the market for the B-747-8I so it doesn't matter if they could get them by 2015 (or by tomorrow).


User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2695 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 15699 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
Thirty x A380 was the number they offered at the January news conference. Nothing new there but good to see that they still think they'll make it.

That's exactly what I thought when reading this thread and then the article in detail. He just repeated what he said in January.

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 5):
Quoting focus.de translation:
"It's not going to be easy, but we want to collect orders for 30 A380 this year," Airbus chief of sales John Leahy said in Toulouse this Thursday - approximately six weeks before the big air show in Farnborough

I don't see any reference to Farnborough. One could even think that this is rather bad news since he now added "it's not going to be easy". Maybe this is actually a sign that they will not be able to collect 30 orders.


User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 617 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 15536 times:

Can someone explain to me why the AF order for 25 A350's is being touted as "new" when the order has been placed already and the only holdup is the maintenance agreement with the engine makers?

As far as the A380 goes, it's a toss up. Carriers would have to not be in a hurry to fill the capacity in order to order more at this point. Taking into account the current backlog and the fact that the production has been slowed down to facilitate the repairs means an order this year might mean delivery in 2015. And if what I'm saying pans out it could be the same dilemma that the B777 is going through, just on a different level. The market wants the T773-er but Boeing can't spit them out fast enough thus stalling potential orders.

60%? Its good to aim high but better to under promise and over deliver. As another poster stated Boeing is on it's job with making the MAX everything it can possibly be. The next two years should tell us where that figure really stands for the two OEM's.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30623 posts, RR: 84
Reply 21, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 15361 times:
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Quoting N14AZ (Reply 19):
I don't see any reference to Farnborough. One could even think that this is rather bad news since he now added "it's not going to be easy". Maybe this is actually a sign that they will not be able to collect 30 orders.

Farnborough could be "Boeing's Show" if they convert hundreds of 737 MAX commitments to orders, so while Airbus and their customers like using the major Air Show of the year to announce their orders, they may want to wait for another show to not be overshadowed in the non-aviation press.

That being said, if Airbus has landed CX as an A380 customer then Farnborough would be where you'd want to announce it since Asian Aerospace won't be holding an event until at least 2014.

The Dubai Airshow could be an option if EK, QR and/or EY are increasing their orders for either the A380 or the A350.


User currently offlineUSAF336TFS From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 1445 posts, RR: 52
Reply 22, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 15064 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Quoting rheinwaldner (Thread starter):
60% long term market share lead for the NEO

Doubtful, IMHO.

In http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/n...e-a320neo-will-win-60.html?ana=twt we read:

Quote:

Airbus supremacy isn’t an idea that will sit easy in Boeing country, where Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh, at the May 15 Boeing Investors Conference, said about single-aisle competition: “We’re not going to let Airbus position themselves to have a disproportionate market share.”

“We do not want them to get to 60 and us 40,” Albaugh continued. “They then come down the learning curve faster, they get pricing power in the market, it’s a slippery slope for us to be on.”

Albaugh tends to be under-spoken, especially when compared to Leahy et al. There are lots of reasons why it'd be very hard for Airbus to get to "long term" 60% market share, and lots of things Boeing can do to react should the trend be clearly going that way, and IMHO Albaugh's statement says they are not going to let it happen.

Gee, I wonder why Leahy didn't make any predictions of market share in the WB market.



336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6836 posts, RR: 46
Reply 23, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 14933 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
We are nearly half way through 2012 now, and Airbus has only delivered 8 A-380s to date. In 2011, Airbus delivered 26 A-380s, so at that rate, Airbus should have delivered 12 or 13 Whale Jets by now. Instead Airbus is on a pace of about their 2010 delivery schedule when they delivered 18 airplanes.

I suspect that the slowdown in deliveries has a lot to do with the wing problem, which I would think would make it likely that they will be able to accelerate deliveries once they have worked out how to handle it. I would expect them to deliver more than 18, although perhaps not as many as last year's 26.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineliftsifter From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 2 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 14888 times:

When did this become a wing crack topic? The issue is well known and has it's own topic, so let's keep this to order talk.

I see EK possibly topping up on some A380s. They seem to love them even with wing crack problems. So much so that their combining the A380 fleet with 777 training now. Seems a bit interesting, no?



A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B738 B744 B763 B772 B77W B787 Q400 E190
25 PlanesNTrains : That'd be awesome. To me, it's the natural A380 evolution. -Dave
26 col : There are a number of existing 380 customers who need to top up their order book. KE, SQ, LH, EK, TG, MH, BA. 30 should be easy by now, even with the
27 rotating14 : Are they (EK) still seeking compensation for the lost rev for the wing issues??
28 Stitch : Outside of a possible MTOW increase, I don't see it. Airbus needs to deliver another ~100 A380-800s before they start pedaling the A380-900. Otherwis
29 SEPilot : Exactly, and Airbus has more pressing problems, such as the A350 and NEO programs. I still do not believe that any airline would buy the A389 but not
30 scbriml : His predictions for Airbus sales tend, not surprisingly, to be pretty much spot-on. If anything, he leans to the conservative side. The order is not
31 ikramerica : What's his track record over the last three years prediction/actual re the A380?
32 WingedMigrator : That may not be how things work-- to fly a given frequency from point A to point B, you need 2 or 3 aircraft in rotation. If you buy fewer bigger air
33 Post contains links and images KC135TopBoom : http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012...-deliveries-on-wing-crack-worries/ No, I saw it. I don't believe it. Airbus is attempting to deliver more Whale
34 Roseflyer : I appreciate the objective thread start and subsequent articles in English (since this is not a German forum). It looks like there are many good oppor
35 N14AZ : Surely you have a proof, correct? Otherwise one wouldn't be able to give such exact numbers. Let's have a look what he predicted for 2011: - at the b
36 poLot : It also means that they can delay the A358, freeing up engineers for other projects while offering customers who don't want to move up in size slight
37 SEPilot : As I recall, he has predicted a lot of A380 sales that have not come to pass. He does know more than anyone else about what is in the works, but some
38 Post contains links CM : My, how quickly we forget the truly crazy predictions he makes sometimes. Like this one from last September: http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idU
39 Post contains images mffoda : I was wondering when someone was going to bring that one up. I personally think, everyone should cut JL and RT some slack... they are SALESMAN and no
40 Cerecl : It is sad to see the direction of this thread has taken. I was hoping some insiders would shed more light on where the A380/A350 sales will come from.
41 Post contains images col : Growth, better long haul big lifter. Ouch, you know how to hurt someone's feelings. My wife and kids complain the opposite and say I should stay in m
42 PlanesNTrains : Oh, I agree. I do look forward to the 389 though. And heck, I'd love to see a 3810 - don't know if that's even an option though. -Dave
43 astuteman : In his, and its, defence, a lot of s**t has happened to the A380 that I suspect wasn't factored into his claims at the time they were made. Have to a
44 CM : Remind me again why it's OK to reign down unmitigated praise on the man, but it's "negativity" to provide a direct quote of his words, with source at
45 babybus : I think you are wrong. It has nothing to do with the wing crack problem. The problem is that the A380 was planned as the glittering diamond of the ne
46 art : Airbus seems to like holding back the announcement of orders until Farnborough/Le Bourget so I guess JL has already negotiated orders for most of or a
47 SEPilot : Quite true, as I have said in other words. I am only criticizing the poster who said most of JL's predictions were accurate, not JL. From what I have
48 Cerecl : No one said JL is the second coming of Jesus or he can do no wrong. Truly crazy to predict A350-1000 will have a sales spree? Optimistic, maybe, but
49 Cerecl : Anyone from CX cares to comment on the "hint" of it ordering A380? Is there any major A350 (or 787) order in the pipeline (LH, BA, etc.)?
50 par13del : The EU will do all in their power to preserve the Euro and maintain its position against the dollar, it was partly created to replace it so the odds
51 Post contains links KC135TopBoom : Nope the 'sale' is now blocked by the Chinese Government over the ETS. BTW, I believe HX still has a MOU for 15 B-747-8Is, too. Correct. I agree with
52 ikramerica : So in 2011 there were 29 A380 sales, 10 cancelations, and 10 "blocked" orders which to me count, at least based against Leahys prediction. What about
53 col : When is a delay a cancellation and VV. How many QF 380 cancellations are you arguing for?
54 CM : I don't mind heaping praise on Airbus when appropriate, or criticism on Boeing when warranted. You'll find both from me in these forums. I am not alw
55 Post contains links N14AZ : Oh great, so in future we are discussing four different categories: 1.) MoU 2.) firm order 3.) cancellation 4.) "blocked by the Chinese Government ov
56 astuteman : Remind me again where /i said that? ditto .......... Rgds
57 Post contains images mffoda : Thats funny N14AZ! But you missed one of the categories: 5) MAX Commitments... [Edited 2012-05-26 11:13:59]
58 Post contains images Stitch : While meant tongue-in-cheek, as a commitment is between an MoU and a firm order, it actually is a separate category.
59 Post contains links KC135TopBoom : If the Chinese Government won't let HX buy them, then what? Don't forget, Airbus carried the IA order in the late 1980s for 5 A-310-300s on the books
60 Post contains links bestwestern : Oh how the myopic have such short sight. http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100131/NEWS02/701319900 This year its an EU problem... Next year???
61 col : How many times have the Government actually stopped the carriers from buying Airbus or Boeing aircraft. If the carriers need it, they will be deliver
62 Post contains links rheinwaldner : It still takes certain boldness because he risks to make a fool of himself (if his predictions turn out completely different). And he often stepped o
63 KC135TopBoom : Thanks, I had not seen that story, but it does make sense, sort of. MU has ordered 20 B-77Ws in addirion to the 45 B-737NGs they have on order (which
64 Post contains images CM : Absolutely. Leahy isn't the only one who plays this game. When Boeing makes a public statement, it invariably serves Boeing. Neither company is going
65 col : Huh? Maybe too many Southern Star beers, spelling gives it away you lucky Texan, miss my Sam Adams but just can't get it here. Anyway, I really do no
66 something : 20x EK, 10x CX, is what the birds be whistling.
67 ikramerica : Sounds like CX wants 10 VLA + options based on their RFP, and he thinks he will win it. But as CX has not made a decision, probably confidence more t
68 ER757 : 20 more for EK? I haven't heard those same birds whistling over at EK, but they don't tell me everything they know for obvious reasons. Anyone know i
69 something : The situation looked more like a 'waiting for the ink to dry' type of scenario. They want a fleet of 120 A380s. Buying 20 would put theirs at 110, pr
70 Stitch : China has taken up to three years to firm MoUs with Boeing, so until China categorically says they will not take them, consider that MoU active. zeke
71 mffoda : If you're talking about the PAS MOU? There have been no Official State visits since then that I am aware of... The last I recall was in Jan 2011. We
72 moo : It wasn't forgotten... This has infact been covered here on A.net many times over the past 5 years at least, but here we go again. The Iraqi order wa
73 something : I am not disclosing anything either. I am merely relaying information that I don't remember the origin of. It was just there.
74 Hamlet69 : Hmmmm. . . . that would seem to coincide with a whisper (I wouldn't even call it a rumor) I heard from a reliable source a few months back. Will be i
75 ZKCIF : Sorry. Which term is stronger in your wording? I'll try to explain in very simple terms. Suppose you order a machine gun from me, a legally working g
76 Hamlet69 : Rumor. Hamlet69
77 XT6Wagon : yah, but this person has in the past repeatedly posted that CX was going to buy A380 in response to CX saying they had no desire for an aircraft larg
78 Post contains images Stitch : Ah, but many of those same people have stated that only Boeing will suffer marketshare loss. Anyway, Airbus have recently announced they are not goin
79 bestwestern : You also have markets like China that divide the aircraft orders 50:50
80 astuteman : I missed that one. Do you have a link? Rgds
81 ikramerica : That's all well and good but this type of statement re CX and the A380 is going on 5 years now. Ink is taking longer to dry than on ANA A380 order.
82 scouseflyer : I'd forgotton about that one, it's like the VN A380 order in that it's just faded away and never been firmed.
83 Post contains links imiakhtar : http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/avd_05_25_2012_p03-01-461788.xml
84 Post contains images astuteman : Thanks for that. although in the context of "owning 60% of the narrowbody market", the moratorium on further increases for the A320 classic beyond 42
85 SEPilot : It does seem that in the narrowbody segment that market share will be determined almost as much by production capacity as by aircraft performance, as
86 something : Not sure who you're talking to, but an NH A388 is nothing that is even talked about here. In fact, people are expecting NH to order 5+8 748i in 2012.
87 SEPilot : Well, UA has just tossed Airbus salesmen out the door and DL bought 739's instead of A321's; I do not regard these as hopeful signs for Airbus.
88 rheinwaldner : The backlog is so long that the production capacity can be brought to any level warranted by the today sales volumes. If the NEO could win 60% of all
89 Stitch : A very respected member was quite sure that NH signed an MoU with Airbus for five A380-800, but once the Global Financial Crisis hit and traffic coll
90 Cerecl : Actually, if this MOU exists, it is never announced officially. To be honest, HX is getting a lot of planes already (10x A380, 15x A350, 20x A330, 30
91 par13del : Why the USA for a FAL, I thought the bulk of the NEO orders were out-side the USA, and since their production cost are not much different from the EU
92 SEPilot : They will be building airplanes; they fly. Delivery costs are not a big issue; they are looking at the most advantageous place from a business perspe
93 Post contains images astuteman : Currency hedging. Pure and simple. Airliners sell in dollars, and airbus have to hedge against the exchange rate. Airbus (well, EADS) has lost a lot
94 CM : Sorry is was not more clear in my post. I actually have no criticism about the 30+30 claim. I agree, it's modest and could easily come to fruition. M
95 something : They already have an engineering center there and great subsidized are offered to them. High skilled labor is also easier to come by in the USA than i
96 Post contains images francoflier : DL favored Boeing... No one saw that coming. The way the Euro is likely to head in the no so distant future, they shouldn't be worried, unless they'v
97 XT6Wagon : They long should have move the industrial bits to the cheaper parts of the eurozone, with spain being a high priority to "reward" them for thier stak
98 SEPilot : But they have a substantial Airbus fleet from NW, and aren't a substantial number of DL executives from NW (including the chairman)? And everyone say
99 Post contains images PM : They were going to have RR, too...
100 gigneil : Very well respected analysts have stated that both Delta and United have been won strictly on price. Which is to be expected in this hotly contested
101 par13del : Which makes me wonder why a USA FAL was not built years ago, instead they went to China. US Airways became the largest Airbus operator without one, t
102 Revelation : There were many posts here saying that once DL saw all the numbers on the ex-NW fleet that they'd favor Airbus, much like BA favored Airbus NB fan af
103 par13del : Technically yes, but I was using the airlines to illustrate a point, I guess I should also have included all the other Airbus operators in the USA to
104 frigatebird : Technically you're completely right, but I somehow doubt JL will have included the AF/KL order in his total of 30. It would mean only 5 frames for th
105 Revelation : I think a lot of things have changed with time. Certainly a big factor is how successful Airbus is now compared to when they sold the first A320s int
106 Post contains links anfromme : Regarding A380 sales prospects - a German news agency source claims that the director of A380 marketing, Richard Carcaillet, stated that CX could buy
107 Post contains images frigatebird : With the notable exception of AI. The A380 reportedly has fierce competition from the 748i there, heard some rumors Boeing had the upper hand there.
108 N14AZ : AI = Air India? What do you mean?
109 Post contains links anfromme : Like N14AZ, I'm unsure what you're referring to. I remember that Leahy at some point said that he was "in talks" with AI (and Jet Airways, I believe)
110 N14AZ : Maybe he meant OZ, Asiana. This order was pretty much a suprise.
111 anfromme : True, but I was only talking about airlines that they do mention with regard to an order. Mostly, they don't make any mention of them (see e.g. Asian
112 par13del : By seats I assume you mean the number that can installed on the A380 versus the 747-8 versus the type of seat.........?
113 Post contains links frigatebird : No, I did mean Air India, there was an article in ATW back in 2007. Sadly, I can't find a direct link anymore, only through Flyertalk: Airbus CEO Tom
114 astuteman : That could sort of be the same issue, if CX marketing strategy is to have an economy seat in the "premium" class - i.e. greater than 17.2" seat botto
115 sweair : Airbus wins hands down in the NB market, the 739 being the lame useless dog it is, lacking thrust and useful range to do anything useful. Maybe Boeing
116 Post contains images EPA001 : I seem to recall some statements in that direction as well. Though at present I have no link to back that information up.
117 Roseflyer : I think final assembly in the US would be so they could build the plane and sell the plane in dollars. It’s a major reason why so many Toyota, Hond
118 Post contains links and images Stitch : That was a political decision to secure future orders from China as Tianjin's output is dedicated to deliveries to Chinese carriers. JL should ask EK
119 francoflier : If it's expansion and not outright relocation of production, then it would sail right past... Major french (or France-based in this case) companies a
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