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Tokyo-Sapporo No Longer World's Busiest Air Route  
User currently offlineHOONS90 From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 3085 posts, RR: 52
Posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 19625 times:
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For the past two decades or so, Tokyo-Sapporo has always been ranked as the world's busiest air route in terms of passengers flown. However, according to an article by the Economist, with data from Amadeus, the Seoul-Jeju, Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo and Tokyo-Osaka routes have surpassed the Tokyo-Sapporo route in terms of passengers carried. The boost in passenger traffic on Seoul-Jeju can perhaps be attributed to the proliferation of low-cost airlines in the domestic market in South Korea. My guess is that Sao Paulo-Rio de Janeiro (among other routes in Brazil) has seen a big traffic increase due to the fast economic growth of the country (5-7% annual GDP growth rate). I'm a bit surprised that Tokyo-Osaka sees so many airline traffic considering that the Shinkansen is a strong competitor.

According to Google, there are between 92 and 109 daily flights from Seoul to Jeju, depending on the day of the week, whereas Rio to Sao Paulo has anywhere between 96 and 126 daily flights (including VCP). Although Rio-Sao Paulo is a more frequent route, the Jeju-Seoul route sees a lot of widebodies and I would guess that RIO-SAO would have a higher proportion of connecting traffic. It will be interesting how figures and rankings would change once KE retires their last A300 by the end of August this year.

Here's the article:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/05/daily-chart-8


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24 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinekngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 414 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 19327 times:
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For comparison sake, Chicago - New York had 86 flights yesterday. (friday) Far less today, due to weekend.

[Edited 2012-05-26 08:00:09]

User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26029 posts, RR: 22
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 18609 times:

Quoting HOONS90 (Thread starter):
Although Rio-Sao Paulo is a more frequent route, the Jeju-Seoul route sees a lot of widebodies and I would guess that RIO-SAO would have a higher proportion of connecting traffic.

The RIO-SAO traffic data in that comparison must include all airports. Most traffic is on the SDU-CGH shuttle service which must be mainly O&D traffic.


User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2976 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 18138 times:

Before the Madrid-Barclona HSR started operations in 2008, the MAD-BCN route was up there with the busiest, with over 100 flights per day.


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User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3736 posts, RR: 19
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 17680 times:

Quoting HOONS90 (Thread starter):
According to Google, there are between 92 and 109 daily flights from Seoul to Jeju, depending on the day of the week, whereas Rio to Sao Paulo has anywhere between 96 and 126 daily flights (including VCP).

There are actually more, since Gol uses CPQ as the code for VCP.


User currently offlinetimz From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 6903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 16708 times:

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 1):
Chicago - New York had 86 flights yesterday.

Counting how many airports?


User currently offlinekngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 414 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 16555 times:
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Quoting timz (Reply 5):
Counting how many airports?

All flights between ORD/MDW and JFK/LGA/EWR.


User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 16449 times:

is the article only talking about O&D pax ? I think HNDCTS is maybe still number 1 if ranked by total pax, O&D plus connecting

Based on 2010 wiki number of seats offered, HNDCTS is like 50% more than SEL-jeju ... Hard to imagine them exceeding within 1 year (unless Japanese economy fell into depression)


User currently offlineizbtmnhd From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 278 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 16390 times:

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 1):

Not long ago, ANA/JAL operated several daily Haneda-Itami fligts with all Y class 500+ seat 747s. Even if NY-Chicago did operate the same amount of flights (or even more for that matter), I gotta believe total seats would still be less. Flying Haneda-Itami/Chitose/Fukuoka is a different animal to anything domestic in North America.

izbtmnhd


User currently offlineHOONS90 From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 3085 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 14935 times:
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Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 7):

Based on 2010 wiki number of seats offered, HNDCTS is like 50% more than SEL-jeju ... Hard to imagine them exceeding within 1 year (unless Japanese economy fell into depression)

I'd also like to see the numbers that account for connecting traffic as well. However remember that since 2010, JAL has retired all of its domestic 747s and A300s and introduced more 738s domestically. Furthermore, the amount of flights from Seoul to Jeju increased by the double digits with two new entrants to the market. Who knows how things would change once KE gets rid of their A300s. Perhaps we'll see some more A330 flights or more 739s, but in the latter case with KE alone already having a SEL-CJU departure every 15-20 minutes, that may cause some logistical issues due to congestion, not to mention that it's also quite inefficient. If we include all of the airlines, the headway becomes every 5-10 minutes--almost as frequent as the 4 train in NYC!

9.9 million O&D passengers annually translates to 27123 passengers a day...Wow!



The biggest mistake made by most human beings: Listening to only half, understanding just a quarter and telling double.
User currently offlineKLM747 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2001, 669 posts, RR: 14
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14694 times:

Interesting article hoons!  
I'm surprised to the see the Seoul-Jeju route up there. The emergence of those low-cost carriers has made travel easier and more affordable. That route has really grown. Yes, I agree that the Tokyo-Osaka route is a bit surprising considering the competition with the shinkansen while the Tokyo-Sapporo route is longer and lacks a direct shinkansen connection at the moment.


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6491 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 13938 times:

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 6):
All flights between ORD/MDW and JFK/LGA/EWR.

This would exclude ISP or HPN as destinations. The former is how many Chicagans flying WN gets to NYC.



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User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26029 posts, RR: 22
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 13842 times:

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 7):
is the article only talking about O&D pax ?

As far as I can tell it includes all passengers in those markets.

It's surprising that, counting all airports serving the cities, not one city in North America or Europe figures in the top 10. For example, why aren't major U.S. markets like New York-Chicago, New York-Los Angeles, New York-Miami etc. at least as big as Johannesburg-Capetown or Sydney-Melbourne?


User currently offlinetimz From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 6903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 13164 times:

Says the source is Amadeus-- Amadeus counts passengers as well as seats?

Presumably the numbers given are the totals for both directions? 13500 passengers each way a day Seoul-Jeju?

The article does seem to say the counts are O&D.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26029 posts, RR: 22
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 13072 times:

Quoting timz (Reply 13):
Presumably the numbers given are the totals for both directions? 13500 passengers each way a day Seoul-Jeju?

Sounds about right. Tomorrow there are 104 flights Jeju-Seoul, mainly 737-800s, A320/321s, and a few widebodies. That should be roughly 20,000 seats each way per day. For most of the day there's a flight every 5 or 10 minutes with 7 carriers serving the route.


User currently offlineBureaucromancer From Canada, joined Feb 2010, 165 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 12802 times:

The thing to remember about Tokyo - Osaka is that the Tōkaidō Shinkansen is also the first to have been built, doesn't take the most direct route and is by far the busiest of the system. As such it really isn't all that fast by HSR generally or even Shinkansen (which while having some very fast trains is not all that fast overall compared to something like the TGV network). In practice the travel time is typically something over 3 hours (yes, there are a few faster "super" expresses that can get that down closer to two), which is a number where air travel is generally starting to be competitive (from every study I've seen (admittedly European and American focussed) the line for rail lines being competitive against air is about 4 hours, so a Tokyo - Osaka run is getting up there for travel time. Given the passenger numbers I've seen I also have a hard time imagining its always possible to get a seat at short notice (though the service is very frequent... can anybody comment on actual capacity constraints on Tōkaidō?).

All in all, yeah, the Shinkansen service is probably better, but its not perfect and seems to be reaching its limits. Will be interesting to see what happens when/if the Chūō (a much more direct 500km/h Maglev supposedly funded for the Tokyo - Nagoya - Osaka corridor) starts opening toward the end of the decade (ugh, looks like opening has been pushed out even further now).

[Edited 2012-05-26 18:03:06]

[Edited 2012-05-26 18:06:47]

User currently offlineoutbackair From Australia, joined Jul 2005, 35 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 12503 times:
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How long will it be before China has the busiest routes? Am I correct in thinking China Southern plan to use A380 on some domestic routes? While they have an increasing number of high speed trains, they have had issues with them. Give it 5-10 years and they will probably hold most of the busiest route records.

User currently offlinecarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2980 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 11026 times:

Quoting Bureaucromancer (Reply 15):
As such it really isn't all that fast by HSR generally or even Shinkansen (which while having some very fast trains is not all that fast overall compared to something like the TGV network). In practice the travel time is typically something over 3 hours

I haven't travelled on the fast Euro trains, so I have no other comparison, but the Tokyo-Osaka section is the oldest; hence the slowest of the tracks because of the tighter turns. The maximum speed on this section is 270kph while most others are rated for 300 or 320 kph. Some of the newer trains have advanced features that allow them to not slow down on some of the tighter turns. Time between Tokyo and Osaka is exactly 2.5 hours for most trains. Alas, they appologize if they are running even a minute behind schedule!

Back to the air.
The Tokyo-ITM/FUK/CTS runs suffered due to the downsizing of JAL and last years earthquake/tsunami/Fukushima.
This year will be more indicative of the past ten years. Tokyo-FUK/CTS will definitely increase due to LCCs starting service at NRT and domestic services will no longer be confined just to Haneda.

As for China, Beijing-Shanghai must be getting up there in numbers. Until they build a Maglev on that section, Beijing-Shanghai might one day be the busiest.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13552 posts, RR: 100
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 10641 times:
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Quoting HOONS90 (Thread starter):
However, according to an article by the Economist, with data from Amadeus, the Seoul-Jeju, Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo and Tokyo-Osaka routes have surpassed the Tokyo-Sapporo route in terms of passengers carried.
Quoting UALWN (Reply 3):
Madrid-Barclona
Quoting carpethead (Reply 17):
As for China, Beijing-Shanghai must be getting up there in numbers. Until they build a Maglev on that section, Beijing-Shanghai might one day be the busiest.

The fun of this thread has been finding the 'trunk routes.' I enjoyed the source article.

I'm surprised TPI-HKG isn't near the top of the list. However, that is heavy with connecting traffic.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineInvaders From Norway, joined May 2012, 338 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 9816 times:

First I would like to say hello   I've been following this forum for as long a I can remember but never signed up before now..

Anyway, the article is an interesting read, however I would like to see it controlled for the size of the cities. The use of numbers like the article provides is a bit biased and it doesnt provide a really good view of wich routes that have the highest frequensies.


User currently offlinelollomz From Italy, joined Sep 2005, 298 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 9427 times:
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It is interesting to observe that between Milan and Rome (LIN-BGY-MXP and FCO-CIA) there are 82 flights in a day and that there are two fast trains between the two cities: the "Freccia Rossa" from Trenitalia and "Italo" , the newwest one who are both good competitors for the planes. A lot of passengers every day!

User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 8674 times:

Is this from just ICN? or is it from both ICN and GMP ?


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User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2976 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6166 times:

Quoting carpethead (Reply 17):
Time between Tokyo and Osaka is exactly 2.5 hours for most trains.

This is exactly the time the fastest AVE trains (the one that don't stop at all in between) take between Madrid and Barcelona. And with this, the train now has taken just over 50% of the market.



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User currently offlineHOONS90 From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 3085 posts, RR: 52
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5653 times:
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Quoting JQflightie (Reply 21):
Is this from just ICN? or is it from both ICN and GMP ?

Only around 2-5 out of the 92-109 per day from SEL to CJU operate out of ICN, mostly to serve inbound/onward international connections from and to ICN.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 14):
Sounds about right. Tomorrow there are 104 flights Jeju-Seoul, mainly 737-800s, A320/321s, and a few widebodies. That should be roughly 20,000 seats each way per day. For most of the day there's a flight every 5 or 10 minutes with 7 carriers serving the route.

Impressive! There's also some 744s on it too.

Until 2007 KE had 5 A330-300s (HL7701, 7702, 7709, 7710 and 7720) solely dedicated to the CJU-GMP and CJU-PUS routes. I've flown on 7701 and 7702 and they were in a high-density two-class domestic layout similar to their A300s. They have since been reconfigured to fly on long haul missions.

The A300s were a true workhorse that have served KE for over 37 years. It will be a shame to see them go, but I guess some of the lost capacity can be recovered since KE is basing a few 744s at GMP.



The biggest mistake made by most human beings: Listening to only half, understanding just a quarter and telling double.
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8046 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 5139 times:

Quoting Bureaucromancer (Reply 15):
The thing to remember about Tokyo - Osaka is that the Tōkaidō Shinkansen is also the first to have been built, doesn't take the most direct route and is by far the busiest of the system. As such it really isn't all that fast by HSR generally or even Shinkansen (which while having some very fast trains is not all that fast overall compared to something like the TGV network). In practice the travel time is typically something over 3 hours (yes, there are a few faster "super" expresses that can get that down closer to two), which is a number where air travel is generally starting to be competitive (from every study I've seen (admittedly European and American focussed) the line for rail lines being competitive against air is about 4 hours, so a Tokyo - Osaka run is getting up there for travel time. Given the passenger numbers I've seen I also have a hard time imagining its always possible to get a seat at short notice (though the service is very frequent... can anybody comment on actual capacity constraints on Tōkaidō?).

I'd agree up until the recent years when the only services on the Tokaido Shinkansen were the limited-stop Hikari and all-stop Kodama services. But once JR Central inaugurated the ultra-fast Nozomi service (especially from 2007 on with their N700 trainsets), a trip from Tokyo to Osaka only takes 2 hours and 25 minutes--faster than taking a train from downtown Tokyo to HND, flying from HND to ITM, and boarding the Osaka Monorail to the Hotarugaike Station to ride the Hankyu commuter rail back to downtown Osaka. Remember, Tokyo Station in Tokyo has plentiful JR commuter lines and the Marunouchi Line subway to connect to the rest of Tokyo, and Shin-Osaka Station in Osaka has JR commuter lines and the Midosuji Line subway to connect to the rest of Osaka.

The ridership on the Tokyo-Osaka Shinkansen is very strong, especially since many riders choose to ride the less-expensive Hikari service between Tokyo and Osaka (which is only 30 minutes longer than the ultra-fast Nozomi service). Remember, not only does the Shinkansen have to compete against airlines on the HND-ITM route, it also has to compete against bus lines of the JR Group of companies and the new Willer Express bus operation (which has become very popular lately as a cheap alternative to the Shinkansen).


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