Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
The California-South America Market. Why So Meager  
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 1029 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 9567 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

LAX has direct flights to GRU (3X week), and Lima. SFO has a direct flight to Lima, and that's it.

What are the chances of LAN launching direct SCL-LAX?

Is TAM looking at LAX at all? Any chance Avianca might return?

saludos

35 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4136 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 9585 times:

Proximity as well as catchment come into play in all this. LAX has a large number of people from Latin America that make up its substantial population, but the vast majority come from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador etc... By the time you get deep into Central America, Nicaragua etc... you're at 85 degrees east longitude (or Eastern time Zone) so effectively Los Angeles is much further away from most South American cities than New York (JFK, EWR) or especially Miami (MIA) which makes those catchment areas more effective for Latin American operations south of Mexico.

[Edited 2012-05-26 19:06:38]


DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9275 times:

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
What are the chances of LAN launching direct SCL-LAX?

LAN operates the SCL-LAX route 3x weekly during the Southern Summer season. Currently, LAN operates SCL-LIM-LAX daily and EZE-LIM-LAX 3x weekly. During November, LAN will increase frequency on the EZE-LIM-LAX route to 6x weekly. Also, LAN Colombia has shown an interest in launching a new non-stop service between BOG and LAX.

[Edited 2012-05-26 22:48:17]

User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 3, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9270 times:

Yield sucks.

The market from Los Angeles to South America, however, is nonetheless huge.

And LAN already flies LAXSCL seasonally.



a.
User currently offlineTWA902fly From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 3129 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 9202 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
Yield sucks.

The market from Los Angeles to South America, however, is nonetheless huge.

This was my understanding as well.. its a lot of VFR and tourists, not too much business traffic. On top of that, the distances from LAX to most large South American cities is very long, much longer than the east coast of the US. In other words, as you mentioned, there are no passengers willing to pay for the nonstop long haul flights, thus everything is better served via ATL/MIA/IAH/PTY, etc.

'902



life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26145 posts, RR: 50
Reply 5, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9153 times:

1) Distance and geography - lots of viable hubs on the way
2) $$$ - poor yields on such long segment.
3) Lack of ethnic ties - Smallish deep South Am populace, instead CA has very heavy bias towards Mexican and Central American population.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 6, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8891 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):

3) Lack of ethnic ties - Smallish deep South Am populace, instead CA has very heavy bias towards Mexican and Central American population.


While the ties are obviously strongest with Mexico and Central America, LA is only behind Miami and NYC in the size of its South American community. It has a significantly large South American community, especially Brazilian, Peruvian and Colombian. However, unlike Miami and NYC, that has not created strong business ties.



a.
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 1029 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8781 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
1) Distance and geography - lots of viable hubs on the way

That's gotta be the biggest factor right there, "connecting hubs", because the South American community in Los angeles is quite large..

As for distance, it is far. I did San Jose-Buenos Aires last year, 11.8 flight time at mach 8.5, yuck


User currently offlineDesertAir From Mexico, joined Jan 2006, 1480 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8632 times:

COPA serves LAX-Panama City, Panama. In the Hub of the Americas there are connections to many South American Cities. This seems like a good option from California to South America.

User currently offlineav757 From Colombia, joined Apr 2004, 662 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8554 times:

AV/TA still serves LAX via BOG-SAL-LAX, or BOG-SJO-LAX using both Taca and Lacsa flights.

I do not see AV operating BOG-LAX-BOG flights as a possibility once again in its operating scheme for now, plus the fact that there is no mid size fleet capable of operating the route nostop.

AV757


User currently onlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13529 posts, RR: 100
Reply 10, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8501 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
Yield sucks.

The market from Los Angeles to South America, however, is nonetheless huge.

Poor yield means a willingness to connect. I see the MAX/NEO improving COPA's route network to both the USA, but also in South America. With further destinations, it would further shrink yield growth potential at LAX (due to hub bypass).

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26145 posts, RR: 50
Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 8479 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
It has a significantly large South American community, especially Brazilian, Peruvian and Colombian.

I don't call it significant when only 4.4% of California Hispanics are South America in origin - one of the lowest percentages anywhere in the United States.

Simply put, California does not have the ethnic links to deep South America as other parts of the country, and accordingly, Latin America service is virtually entirely focused on Mexico, and Central America from these parts.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 1029 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8397 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting av757 (Reply 9):
I do not see AV operating BOG-LAX-BOG flights as a possibility once again in its operating scheme for now, plus the fact that there is no mid size fleet capable of operating the route nostop.

agree, I think BOG-LAX-BOG could be sustained with a single aisle Airbus, unfortunately is just outside of its range


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 13, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7612 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
I don't call it significant when only 4.4% of California Hispanics are South America in origin - one of the lowest percentages anywhere in the United States.

Its the third largest South American community in North America.



a.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 14, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7306 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

It lacks better distribution also.
As more flights to places in Brazil become available thru MIA, more difficult it becomes for West Coast and California to develop a sustainable route to Brazil, for example.
LAXGRU is far from being successful with loads many times below 60% (the last available report from DOT shows for NOV/11 GRU-LAX as 56.9% Load Factor and just 33,922 lbs of cargo).

Even California business is not so centered in Sao Paulo as other places. Cisco and Pimco , just to name some, recently announced they will be opening office (Pimco) and R&D Center (Cisco) in Brazil, and will be outside of Sao Paulo.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26145 posts, RR: 50
Reply 15, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 6959 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
Its the third largest South American community in North America.

According to the 2010 Census, its actually #5.

But even so, 219,000 spread out in a state of 38mil is a rather small fraction, and is far eclipse by other much more numeric Hispanic and non-Hispanic groups.

California is no Florida, Jersey, NY, Massachusetts, etc when it comes to prominence of South American populations.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinedoulasc From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 579 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6725 times:

I remember Braniff's only California service was SFO-LAX-down to various South American Cities with a DC-8-62.
Pan Am had some flights from SFO-LAX-latin america. How did these two airlines do back in the day?


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26145 posts, RR: 50
Reply 17, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6618 times:

Pan Am back in the day was multi-stop milk-run service LAX-Mexico onto Central America and finally down to South Am.

Braniff was much the same with service to Panama, Lima and further South.

Frequencies were a few times per week for most destinations.

Also remember back in the day, the world was different. Fares were established by governments, and IATA helped ensure airlines have healthy margins. There was not the hyper competition as today where people fight over $1 and airline often have negative margins on much of their networks.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6556 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
I don't call it significant when only 4.4% of California Hispanics are South America in origin - one of the lowest percentages anywhere in the United States.

While the percentage of Latinos is low, because they form a large part of the population, the numbers are still fairly high. Hispanic means Spanish speaking, so does that include Brazilians and other Portuguese speaking peoples?

Still it is like routes to the Philippines. There is a high number of Filipinos in California but the yield is not high enough for more than a few direct flights. Even the China routes have excess capacity. Ethnic travel is unimportant. Business travel is important. Even if no South Americans lived in California there would be direct flights if there was sufficient business interest.


User currently offlineTomassjc From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 903 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6556 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Pan Am back in the day was multi-stop milk-run service LAX-Mexico onto Central America and finally down to South Am.

Braniff was much the same with service to Panama, Lima and further South



Back when Braniff and Pan Am ruled the market in the late 60s, LAX also saw service from Avianca, APSA, Varig and Aerolineas Argentinas. You could do LAX-LIM nonstop on BN, AR and RG. AM even operated a short lived DC-8 service LAX-ACA-CCS as a joint venture with Viasa!



When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 6274 times:

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 19):
Back when Braniff and Pan Am ruled the market in the late 60s, LAX also saw service from Avianca, APSA, Varig and Aerolineas Argentinas. You could do LAX-LIM nonstop on BN, AR and RG.

Today, LAN is the only South American carrier that operates non-stop flights from its hub at LIM into both LAX and SFO. LAN Airlines operates SCL-LIM-LAX daily and SCL-LAX seasonally. LAN Perú operates both the EZE-LIM-LAX and GRU-LIM-SFO routes. Also, LAN has targeted LAX as a destination that will receive B-787-8 services with-in one year.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25989 posts, RR: 22
Reply 21, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5869 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Braniff was much the same with service to Panama, Lima and further South.

Braniff operated nonstop LAX-SCL using the 747SP for 2 or 3 years before they shut down. They also had nonstop DC-8 service LAX-LIM and LAX-BOG which lasted a few years longer. According to their 1982 timetable in effect when they suspended service they had 3 nonstops a week LAX-LIM, 2 LAX-BOG and 2 LAX-SCL.

Pan Am also briefly operated LAX-SCL nonstop with a 747SP. Don't think it lasted more than a year or two. In a 1987 timetable it was only once a week and continued to EZE.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26145 posts, RR: 50
Reply 22, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5835 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 18):
Hispanic means Spanish speaking, so does that include Brazilians and other Portuguese speaking peoples?

According to the US Census - Yes on Brazil as its lumped into the broader "Latin America / Caribbean" category, which is defined as:

The term Latin America and the Caribbean includes countries in Central and South America and the Caribbean.
Central America includes Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama. South America includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands, French Guiana, Guyana,Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Caribbean includes Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, the former country of Guadeloupe (including St. Barth

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 18):
Ethnic travel is unimportant. Business travel is important.

I beg to differ. Ethnic travel can be incredibly important, and hugely profitable business itself. Look at the volume of business done to places like Guatemala, El Salvador, etc which is 80%+ ethnic flow.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 18):
Even if no South Americans lived in California there would be direct flights if there was sufficient business interest

The key word is "sufficient". Even trade wise, South America is pretty low on the list of partners CA has. Per CA Commerce Dept, none of its top-15 trade partners in 2010 was a Latin American nations excluding Mexico.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26145 posts, RR: 50
Reply 23, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5746 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 21):
Braniff operated nonstop LAX-SCL using the 747SP for 2 or 3 years before they shut down.

Really? 2-3 years.

I dont recall seeing the SP at LAX except for when TWA did its maintenance, and for a few of the LAX-GUM and Asia services Braniff tried unsuccessfully at the time.

From what I recall DC-8-62s were the South America birds from the West Coast.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 21):
In a 1987 timetable it was only once a week and continued to EZE.

Pan Am did not have 747SPs in 1987. They all went to United with the Pacific division sale in 1985.

What you are referring to was a planned 1x weekly service (flight number was 209 as I recall), which got held up by government approvals and eventually operated LAX-GYE-SCL, and only on the rare occasion made it nonstop to SCL using the 747-100. The return flight itself was a fiasco diverting into places like Acapulco for fuel in the middle of the night.


If we want to dig out lots of old timetables there were dozens of routing schemes that both Braniff and Pan Am utilized, but all were multi-stop, and you would be dizzy by the time you managed to get to the cone of South America. Had a friend that non-reved on Pan Am, and did LAX-MEX-GUA-CCS-RIO-EZE-SCL on a 707 to turn around only 12-hours later to come back to work !

[Edited 2012-05-27 16:24:18]


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently onlinecschleic From United States of America, joined Feb 2002, 1304 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5554 times:

A Braniff 1982 timetable shows a 2x/week LAX - Santiago non-stop, and 1x/week one-stop, for example. The fun part was, since they tagged-on to SFO, you could fly a DC-8 LAX-SFO.

A 1979 timetable has several LAX - South America flights, some listed on a 747, although it doesn't indicate if SP or regular 747.

http://www.departedflights.com/BN102879p40.html


25 Tomassjc : Did that a few time post deregulation. Nice lather seats and a good looking South America based crew! Tom SJC
26 Viscount724 : Right. Forgot about that. Just assumed that a 747-100 wouldn't have had the range. They did have a few 747-200s then (acquired from SQ) that probably
27 Post contains images AirlineCritic : Now that is far. And fast. But I agree west coast - South America connections suck. Not just from California, by the way. Same with Seattle, Vancouve
28 MAH4546 : There is no "etc". The Jersey population is part of the greater NYC metro and Massachusetts' community is purely Brazilian. You won't find a U.S. cit
29 laca773 : It's too bad TA still has a rather poor reputation for those flying even to GUA, SAL and SJO. Everyone I know is willing to make a connection to Cent
30 SCL767 : LAN Colombia would use the B763 on the BOG-LAX route. MasAir currently operates BOG-LAX 3x weekly and LAN tends to use certain pax flights to carry c
31 2travel2know2 : CM currently keeps its aircraft enough time @ LAX to be able to add a 3rd PTY-LAX. IMHO, If the demand is there CM would probably do it quite soon. I'
32 av757 : The Boeing 787-8 at AV which will be implemented into the fleet on the first quarter of 2014 as far as we know so far, it will be configured with 269
33 laca773 : Thanks for the information, av757. I was wondering about this. It sounds like AV won't have an appropriate size a/c to operate BOG-LAX-BOG in the for
34 Post contains images Mir : If you're going Mach 8.5, I want to fly what you're flying. -Mir
35 jcavinato : Back in the days of IATA pricing influence, the west coast of South America to North America had the highest revenue fares per seat mile in the world.
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
German Holiday Airlines Market - Why So Static? posted Fri Feb 22 2002 15:34:05 by Airsicknessbag
Lufthansa's Policy To South America: Why So Forgot posted Fri Oct 20 2006 19:19:53 by LipeGIG
Why So Much Uncommon Interest In South America? posted Tue Mar 9 2004 20:08:25 by Brasuca
Sky Team: Why No South America? posted Wed Jun 9 2010 10:26:43 by A388
Nightflights From Europe To South America - Why? posted Fri Jul 10 2009 07:44:08 by ENCRJ
LH To South America Via New York...why? posted Tue Mar 25 2008 14:13:53 by Tango-Bravo
Why So Many Exit Doors On The A321? posted Wed Nov 28 2007 06:00:37 by LY777
US-South America, Why Overnight In Both Directions posted Sun Apr 29 2007 03:47:00 by LHboyatDTW
Why So Few 340's Across The Pacific? posted Wed Jan 10 2007 00:32:10 by Don81603
Why So Long To Clear Us To The Assigned Altitude? posted Thu Nov 16 2006 18:48:32 by Golftango