toltommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3220 posts, RR: 4 Reply 1, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21720 times:
That being said, if thats the job posting, odds are they are trying to make the economics work. MD80's are only going to get harder to find in the long term. May as well start planning for the future.
atcsundevil From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 666 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21691 times:
I think it's pretty doubtful. Even ageing A320s would still cost them a lot of money compared to the MD-80s; MD-80s are inefficient enough and old enough so that G4 is really the only carrier wanting to buy them, particularly because they can buy them outright in cash. Not dealing with big lease payments is why their business model has been so successful.
That's aside from the obvious fact that they'd be looking at a third fleet type/third manufacturer. My guess is they'll give it a couple of years running the 757s with the MD-80s and see how it works out. Bringing in the 757 in itself was a huge deviation from their business model.
My guess is that five years from now they'll be running the same fleet, just more of them.
PlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4537 posts, RR: 28 Reply 3, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21506 times:
Well, if they aren't at least toying with the idea of rolling their fleet over to A32X's, then I'm at a loss as to why they'd post a position for it.
The writing went up on the wall for the MD-80s as soon as American signed up for the A320 series. The biggest operator of the type orders replacements and declares bankruptcy and Delta announces an order for 737-900s with rumors of a large narrowbody order later on. Large scale retirements there could leave G4 as the largest MD-80 operator in the world. In the short term that helps them, since airframes would only get cheaper. But in the long run, shrinking of the maintenance pool will cause costs to increase not to mention the possibility of higher fuel prices. The bottom line is that the MD-80's days are numbered whether Allegiant likes it or not.
The logical successor would be the 737 Classics, but those would suffer the same issues on a smaller scale as they are retired. And again, increasing fuel costs swing the pendulum a bit further from the low acquisition cost side of the spectrum as well.
All of this leads up to me thinking that Allegiant might be taking a serious look at the A320 family due to several factors. Besides what I alluded to above, the A320 also offers a larger spread in capacity within the family than the 737 Classic. My thinking is that although I doubt any Airbus Allegiant would buy would be flown to Hawaii, the results of their mainland 757 flying leading up to the start of Hawaii service could have gotten some people thinking. A handful of A321s bought at the right price with about 200 seats might not be so bad for them. The last piece of the puzzle of course is if Allegiant is betting that A320 prices fall off a cliff around 2015 when the NEO hits the street. That's mostly a matter of how big a cliff we're talking about.
Overall, I have to think that someone at Allegiant will have to take a look at the A320 around the middle of this decade.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
CapEd388 From United States of America, joined Feb 2011, 217 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 21458 times:
I feel that Allegiant is very happy with their MD-80 fleet and I think they are going to keep them around for a long time, but it is kinda of interesting that they specifically added "(AIRBUS)".
Maybe someone close to G4 or more info can enlighten us.
southwest737500 From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 594 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 21257 times:
In my mine I could see G4 going with the 737-700 just because of the smaller airports they serve
Planes I've been on: Dash8,CRJ 200,CRJ 700,CRJ 900,ERJ 175, ERJ 190, 717,732,733,734,735,737,738.A319,A320,A321,762,763
RWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2159 posts, RR: 4 Reply 7, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20658 times:
I would think G4 may be looking around knowing at some point in the future they will need to start looking at replacements for their M80's, hasn't G4 already picked up any M80's that have life to them that have been available? The AA birds will go into the desert with little life left in them. I'm thinking it's like VX looking for an ETOPS manager, it's not going to happen tomorrow but years down the line. If G4 gets their hands on some decent 320 family frames, that may be a good start to replace their aging M80 fleet a few more years down the road, it's not like G4 squeezes out tons of cycles on their frames.
Next Flights: AS PDX-SEA-KOA on DH4/738 in F, HA KOA-OGG on 717 in Y, AS OGG-PDX on 738 in F
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 11358 posts, RR: 50 Reply 8, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20611 times:
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 5): Overall, I have to think that someone at Allegiant will have to take a look at the A320 around the middle of this decade.
I'd have thought sooner.
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 7): In my mine I could see G4 going with the 737-700 just because of the smaller airports they serve
An A319 would work just as well.
There seems little dispute they must be fairly serious about it. From the job description:
Quote: POSITION SUMMARY:
The Fleet Manager will be responsible for technical coordination of the fleet activity. This position will develop maintenance policies/ procedures specific to the assigned fleet and support acquisition and dispositions of aircraft and other duties as assigned.
columba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 6798 posts, RR: 5 Reply 9, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20573 times:
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 7): In my mine I could see G4 going with the 737-700 just because of the smaller airports they serve
A319s would do the job just fine as the 73G, they are a lot of 2nd A32x on the market that could be an option for G4.
I could also see them being interested in the A321.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
atcsundevil From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 666 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19926 times:
Quoting columba (Reply 10): A319s would do the job just fine as the 73G, they are a lot of 2nd A32x on the market that could be an option for G4.
I could also see them being interested in the A321.
They are all still way too expensive. G4 will not lease aircraft -- they will only buy them outright. They can get a secondhand MD-80 for a couple million. They can't get a secondhand 737 or A320 series for anything close to that. They can buy five MD-80s for the same price. The 757s were an exception to this rule because they wanted to gamble with a new market. This was a one-time thing (at least for the next few years).
If they were any other airline I would think it's possible, but the G4 model isn't like any other airline. They'll stick with the MDs and a handful of 75s for a while.
EY460 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 233 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19830 times:
Maybe they will look to buy second hand A32x. Lots of carrier will be upgrading to the NEO and prices of the older versions will drop and frames will be availablr. Older A32x will be more efficient than MD80.
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 11358 posts, RR: 50 Reply 12, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 19376 times:
Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 11): If they were any other airline I would think it's possible, but the G4 model isn't like any other airline. They'll stick with the MDs and a handful of 75s for a while.
In the mean time, they're going to pay an Airbus Fleet Manager to do what, exactly?
RWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2159 posts, RR: 4 Reply 13, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 19003 times:
Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 11): They are all still way too expensive. G4 will not lease aircraft -- they will only buy them outright. They can get a secondhand MD-80 for a couple million.
In 5 years from now, 320 family aircraft will be discarded left and right, replaced by newer NEO models and 737-800/900 ER MAX aircraft. IMO, those planes that are being replaced will glut the used plane market and drive the prices way down on earlier built 320 family planes, just what has happened with M80's for the past several years and currently as well. G4 doesn't need to rush it, if they are really going to replace an entire fleet of M80's with 320's down the road, it's best to have done your homework well in advance, IMHO.
Next Flights: AS PDX-SEA-KOA on DH4/738 in F, HA KOA-OGG on 717 in Y, AS OGG-PDX on 738 in F
jfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2645 posts, RR: 5 Reply 14, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 18503 times:
So what are they hiring an Airbus Fleet Manager for?
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11708 posts, RR: 52 Reply 15, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 18010 times:
I G4 going to retire some of their MD-80s and replace them with the A-32X family?
They currently have 58 MD-80s and 4 B-757s they own, plus they have another two B-757s they leased.
They just got their ETOPS certficate for thei B-757 Hawaii flights, here is he schedule of when and where th Hawaii flights are and a picture of one of their B-757Es;
Las Vegas – begins June 29
Fresno, Calif. – begins June 30
Bellingham, Wash. – begins November 15
Monterey, Calif – begins November 16
Eugene, Ore. – begins November 17
Santa Maria, Calif. – begins November 17
Stockton, Calif. – begins November 18
Allegiant will also offer nonstop air service to Maui from:
Bellingham, Wash. – begins November 14
Allegiant is still planning to grow and is looking at other route options. Previously Levy has stated that the airline is looking at the possibility of flying to Canada, Mexico and even South America.
jetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 2901 posts, RR: 28 Reply 17, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 17784 times:
Allegiant held a conference with its airport partners in May. At that event, Andrew Levy, the President of the company, stated that the carrier would be moving toward a new aircraft type. The rise in the price of fuel and the fall in the values of some older 320/737 aircraft now make it the time to switch. He publicly stated that Allegiant had acquired its last M80, but that the type would fly on for the carrier for many years.
Basically, the economics now favor used 320/737s. Looks like the choice might be the 320 series.
slcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2452 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 17456 times:
I think it makes sense for them to explore the possibility just in case fuel really shoots thru the roof. They probably will be fine but allegiant is smart I bet they want to have an Airbus backup plan in place ahead of time. I don't think they have any plans or will anytime soon this is purely exploring the idea and will try to keep the mad dogs
srbmod From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 16888 posts, RR: 51 Reply 19, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 16760 times:
Quoting jetlanta (Reply 17): Basically, the economics now favor used 320/737s. Looks like the choice might be the 320 series.
Airlines like Delta will be replacing some of the A320s with 737-900ERs in the coming years, plus with the A320NEO scheduled to enter service in 2015, there will be a bigger supply of A320 a/c on the market in the coming years, not so much with 737NG a/c.
Allegiant could potentially also have interest in A320 a/c that are currently stored as well. Part of the Kingfisher A320 fleet is listed on Airfleets as being stored (along with the Kingfisher Red A320s) and there's also the former Spanair A320s that are currently in storage.
dtw9 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1044 posts, RR: 2 Reply 20, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 16183 times:
Why is everybody assuming its for A319/A320's. Maybe Allegiant is thinking about going longhaul with A330's. There are a few 1995 build A330's out there for sale or lease
sxf24 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1225 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 15956 times:
While the operating economics of the MD-80s still work, the maintenance costs are becoming increasingly prohibitive as there are fewer acceptable aircraft to scavenge for parts.
Allegiant will absolutely consider leasing aircraft, most likely used, if the price is right.
There are very few used 737NGs on the market and the lease rates are still relatively high.
There are lots of available A320s, and the lease rates are very low, particularly for A319s.
Airbus has lots of airplanes to sell at the end of the A320 Classic line while it transitions to NEOs, which will incentivize it to discount prices further than normal.
This leads me to believe that Allegiant is thinking long term about replacing MD-80s with A320s, both new and used.
silentbob From Vatican City, joined Aug 2006, 1637 posts, RR: 1 Reply 22, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 15797 times:
Quoting EY460 (Reply 11): Lots of carrier will be upgrading to the NEO and prices of the older versions will drop and frames will be availablr. Older A32x will be more efficient than MD80.
I can't believe it took so long for someone to point this out. Smart business people don't just look at the present, they look into the future and make decisions on where the industry is headed.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26690 posts, RR: 83 Reply 23, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 15689 times:
Quoting scbriml (Reply 12): In the mean time, they're going to pay an Airbus Fleet Manager to do what, exactly?
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 14): So what are they hiring an Airbus Fleet Manager for?
Run numbers and simulations, I imagine, to see how such a fleet would work out when it becomes affordable to acquire. The cost of the employee and software/hardware to do it should not be very expensive.
As noted up-thread, G4 could get 4 MD-90s, 6 MD-88s or 12 MD-82s for what they would pay for an A320-200 of the same vintage (early-to-mid-1990s) so at the moment, adding the A320 family doesn't look cost-effective for G4 with how they currently handle fleet acquisitions.
cargolex From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1155 posts, RR: 9 Reply 24, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 15458 times:
Quoting sxf24 (Reply 21):
This leads me to believe that Allegiant is thinking long term about replacing MD-80s with A320s, both new and used.
If Allegiant is thinking about A320s, believe me they won't be new.
They may be looking at what the falloff in values may be when there is a glut of A320s on the market as all these new A320 NEOS come online - that's still five years from now. But by new? G4? Never. It would make zero financial sense for them.
Low capital expenditure is key to Allegiant's business. Buying expensive planes to do the same job as cheap ones would be very out of character, even if they do better on fuel.
25 MLI717fan: I was kind of thinking that too, but what about A300 or A310? Too old? I would think they could get 767s for cheaper than an A330, although I have no
26 lightsaber: How many MD-80s are flying? As soon as the number drops below 250, the costs to support the type go up and that means higher maintenance bills. Aller
27 oflanigan: It would seem odd for G4 to buy "new" A320s, but like others have said, if the discount is great closer to NEO introduction, who wouldn't grab new bui
28 srbmod: Allegiant operates every version of the MD-80 family from the MD-81 through the MD-88. Their fleet is predominantly MD-82 and MD-83 a/c. They've got a
29 Web: Although most likely wishful thinking, I like this idea! The economics, though, would probably be pretty bad; anyone have numbers for these versus A3
30 FATFlyer: This thread started after I left last night for dinner with my wife. Allegiant has said for the last couple of years that they were looking at acquiri
31 BMI727: According to Wikipedia the number stood at 886 in 2009. American and Delta account for over 300 of them plus 38 at Allegiant. When retirements start
32 FATFlyer: I should have said A320 instead of just Airbus. Yes I agree that appears to be the front runner. Following Allegiant's fleet history they will probab
34 usxguy: Ya'll are thinking the wrong direction. Think "bigger" airplanes. Allegiant's current structure would bankrupt the company if the MD-80s were replaced
35 srbmod: Widebodies might make sense, especially on the Hawaii runs. especially if they maintain strong bookings and loads on those routes. Perhaps they're th
36 lightsaber: Interesting. I wonder if oil prices have accelerated their replacement schedule? Thank you. But as oil prices climbed, MD-80s were parked in high num
37 TZTriStar500: My source shows 613 active so about half total production.
38 gilesdavies: One airline that comes to mind that will be off loading a load of A310's soon, is Air Transat... They are replacing all of theirs with A330's over th
39 LAXDESI: A319(or 73G) would be almost 1:1 repacement for its MD-83(150 seats @30" pitch). However, A319 is about 12% heavier than MD-83(wikipedia figures). I
40 aztrainer: I remember a picture of a Frontier A318 being parted out as they were more valuable as parts than as total airframes. Could they get some of these 31
41 lightsaber: I found a 2007 thread with 05 numbers (post #8): MD-80 Vs 737-800 Operating Costs (by 1337Delta764 Aug 18 2007 in Civil Aviation) DL 05 Q2 738 Flight
42 Gulfstream650: Apparently they will be buying Spanair's A320s.
43 sunking737: They only had 5 A320 vs 19 MD80's per http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Spanair.htm
44 LAXDESI: Agree. That only makes the A320 even more attractive. I see price for an A320(2001 year) around $19 million, and 1991 MD-83 at $2.8 million. It would
45 lightsaber: Then it is time to start acquiring a new type. Note: I see Allergiant still buying MD-80s for the seasonal/part time fleet. But it is time for a sub-
46 sunking737: Maybe G4 will take advantage of DL/UA replacing their Airbuses. Could be a couple of hundred planes to chose from. Any other carriers replacing Airbus
47 BMI727: I kind of doubt that there will be a stable coexistence of Airbus and MD-80s at Allegiant. I think you're right that A320s would be the most highly u
48 jetlanta: After looking through the comments above, I've come to the conclusion that this industry changes faster the You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. E
49 scbriml: Yes, but any of their existing fleet managers could do that. It seems to me you wouldn't hire an Airbus Fleet Manager unless a decision had already b
50 RWA380: I stated exactly this in my reply 13, I included my original post. I'm not sure why my reply was ignored, but when others started saying the same thi
51 scbriml: Other have shown, in detail, how A320s could work for Allegiant right now. Given the advertising of this fleet manager's position, I'd expect them to
52 LHCVG: Not necessarily. As said before, the cost of hiring one FTE who knows Airbus planes in and out to run the simulations on Airbus types for the G4 flee
53 columba: I am huge MD fan, love them very much but sadly the days are numbered with the withdrawal from AA and DL fleet. It will become too expensive to operat
54 lightsaber: Interesting concept. The only reason I disagree is that MD-80s are going to be less than cheap in two years. G4 could expand rapidly for almost only
55 SSTeve: Does Allegiant have low utilization where they could hold older A320s for a much longer time than a typical carrier before hitting cycle limits? Anyon
56 ha763: I doubt it. Boyd and Omni have recently renewed their contract with Omni getting 2 767-200ERs specially configured interiors with Boyd/Vacations Hawa
57 DocLightning: At some point, operations and maintenance are going to overstrip a new lease. FR operates with brand-spanking-new aircraft. And, while there are NDA'
58 MLI717fan: G4 is still working on re-fitting their M80s to fit 166 passengers. Unless they are planning on replacing some of the non-re-fitted fleet, I'd bet any
59 RWA380: I'm guessing later than sooner, they are not putting heavy cycles on their M80's, G4 bought their planes with the intent of keeping them a while. I w
61 lightsaber: I managed to read over the 'publicly stated' bit on the last MD-80s. That changes my discussion. How much have A320/737 prices dropped? I hear rumors
62 mattya9: I'm willing to bet G4 will be adding 319's or 320's to their fleet, with IMO the 319 being more of a good fit for the company and their business model
63 jetlanta: They said that it was a combination of better pricing in the market along with lower fuel consumption costs. Between the two of those things, the equ
64 ouboy79: Perhaps the lower costs would finally allow reconnecting of airports deemed out of reach (profitably) from the western focus cities.
65 LAXDESI: As the block hour costs for A319 and A320 very close, it makes more sense to acquire A320 for high utilisation routes with enough demand. If A319s ar
66 Gulfstream650: I'm afraid that I can't reveal the source. What I can say is that I understand that the deal is mainly Spanair but there might be some other 320s fro
67 lightsaber: Interesting. Any ex-IT? Minus the fancy front cabin, of course. Your life is my life. Lightsaber
68 mattya9: I've heard they will be 319's and not 320's. Getting them for a very good price too. But we'll see in the near future, won't we? OPS 5
69 RWA380: Well, let's guess the airlines that are either on the verge, or have gone out of business that had/have 319's and 320's. Or those carriers that may ha
70 GARUDAROD: This would jive with what I heard a few months ago, that maintenance staff were in Toulouse for training. If anybody has been to Allegiant's HDQ would
71 lightsaber: This is why I think G4 *will* buy more MD80s. Once AA (DL?) start selling MD80s in bulk, it will be worth it for G4 to lowball. I wonder if their pub
72 mrskyguy: While acknowledging that my previous "rumor tidbit" on CalPac was [for the time being] proven shaky at best, I can confirm that Allegiant is seriously
73 TrijetsRMissed: Absolutely. In the age of social media and networking, a top candidate will be hunted through LinkedIn, crowd sourcing, peer regression or direct ref
74 columba: Can you explain why they are cheap A319s on the market just because DL has passed on them ?
75 jetlanta: Every indication from G4 management, and by indication I mean literal statements, is that they will not be taking anymore M80s. They have enough in t
76 FATFlyer: In G4's presentations to investors/analysts they have included the NK comparisons also. This slide from a May management presentation compares G4's C
77 usxguy: So lets do some math. 56 MD-80s in the fleet, of which all are owned. So any payments is thrown under capital expenditures, which unfortunately makes
78 LAXDESI: Thanks for sharing. The link shows about 12% higher operating CASM(with fuel) for G$ MD-80 over Spirit. Higher financing costs of A320 over MD-80 wil
79 bennett123: IMO, any talk about the A310 is a non starter. Firstly, the newest was built in 1998, (14 yrs), the newest TS example was 1992, (20 years). Secondly,
80 jetlanta: They said that the the market for USED 320/737 aircraft has softened enough to make a difference. They particularly said that owners of fleets of the
81 FATFlyer: One thing to keep in mind about this is that Allegiant currently averages about 6 block hours per day with the MDs, Spirit runs their aircraft about 1
82 DocLightning: Really? Why so low? I guess it does make the reason for using the MD-80's make more sense, but that's a lot of metal to have on-hand for such low uti
83 lightsaber: For high utilization, I 100% agree. I also agree. I just see the possibility of *low utilization* remaining with the MD-80 for a little while longer.
84 TrijetsRMissed: "Just because DL passed on them?" I'm not sure I understand the question... But I'll try to bring you up to speed... Airbus is facing a surplus of in
85 LAXDESI: Lease rate estimates for A319 in the following link. My calculations suggest that A319 should save about $2 million in operating costs over MD-83 with
86 FATFlyer: G4 signed a deal with SAS in November 2011 for 13 MD80 aircraft and 12 JT8D engines for delivery in 2012 and 2013. Price was reported as $20 million
87 scbriml: I saw a number of ex-SAS MD-80s at Kingman last year all bing stripped for Allegiant.
88 ouboy79: I learned a lot time ago that Jetlanta knows things...really...really well. We can disagree with him and all, but when he is flat out saying this is
89 scbriml: Despite the insider knowledge and detailed analysis presented in this thread, which show the opposite, you still seem to be swiming against the tide.
90 starrymarkb: Only if you have an extra pair of overwing exits like Easyjet's examples do.
91 TZTriStar500: Correct, the max TCDS limit for the A319 with single overwing exit is 145 pax and dual is 160 pax. There are very few A319s available with dual overw
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