atcsundevil From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 666 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21691 times:
I think it's pretty doubtful. Even ageing A320s would still cost them a lot of money compared to the MD-80s; MD-80s are inefficient enough and old enough so that G4 is really the only carrier wanting to buy them, particularly because they can buy them outright in cash. Not dealing with big lease payments is why their business model has been so successful.
That's aside from the obvious fact that they'd be looking at a third fleet type/third manufacturer. My guess is they'll give it a couple of years running the 757s with the MD-80s and see how it works out. Bringing in the 757 in itself was a huge deviation from their business model.
My guess is that five years from now they'll be running the same fleet, just more of them.
The writing went up on the wall for the MD-80s as soon as American signed up for the A320 series. The biggest operator of the type orders replacements and declares bankruptcy and Delta announces an order for 737-900s with rumors of a large narrowbody order later on. Large scale retirements there could leave G4 as the largest MD-80 operator in the world. In the short term that helps them, since airframes would only get cheaper. But in the long run, shrinking of the maintenance pool will cause costs to increase not to mention the possibility of higher fuel prices. The bottom line is that the MD-80's days are numbered whether Allegiant likes it or not.
The logical successor would be the 737 Classics, but those would suffer the same issues on a smaller scale as they are retired. And again, increasing fuel costs swing the pendulum a bit further from the low acquisition cost side of the spectrum as well.
All of this leads up to me thinking that Allegiant might be taking a serious look at the A320 family due to several factors. Besides what I alluded to above, the A320 also offers a larger spread in capacity within the family than the 737 Classic. My thinking is that although I doubt any Airbus Allegiant would buy would be flown to Hawaii, the results of their mainland 757 flying leading up to the start of Hawaii service could have gotten some people thinking. A handful of A321s bought at the right price with about 200 seats might not be so bad for them. The last piece of the puzzle of course is if Allegiant is betting that A320 prices fall off a cliff around 2015 when the NEO hits the street. That's mostly a matter of how big a cliff we're talking about.
Overall, I have to think that someone at Allegiant will have to take a look at the A320 around the middle of this decade.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
RWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2159 posts, RR: 4 Reply 7, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20658 times:
I would think G4 may be looking around knowing at some point in the future they will need to start looking at replacements for their M80's, hasn't G4 already picked up any M80's that have life to them that have been available? The AA birds will go into the desert with little life left in them. I'm thinking it's like VX looking for an ETOPS manager, it's not going to happen tomorrow but years down the line. If G4 gets their hands on some decent 320 family frames, that may be a good start to replace their aging M80 fleet a few more years down the road, it's not like G4 squeezes out tons of cycles on their frames.
Next Flights: AS PDX-SEA-KOA on DH4/738 in F, HA KOA-OGG on 717 in Y, AS OGG-PDX on 738 in F
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 11358 posts, RR: 50 Reply 8, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20611 times:
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 5): Overall, I have to think that someone at Allegiant will have to take a look at the A320 around the middle of this decade.
I'd have thought sooner.
Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 7): In my mine I could see G4 going with the 737-700 just because of the smaller airports they serve
An A319 would work just as well.
There seems little dispute they must be fairly serious about it. From the job description:
Quote: POSITION SUMMARY:
The Fleet Manager will be responsible for technical coordination of the fleet activity. This position will develop maintenance policies/ procedures specific to the assigned fleet and support acquisition and dispositions of aircraft and other duties as assigned.
atcsundevil From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 666 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19926 times:
Quoting columba (Reply 10): A319s would do the job just fine as the 73G, they are a lot of 2nd A32x on the market that could be an option for G4.
I could also see them being interested in the A321.
They are all still way too expensive. G4 will not lease aircraft -- they will only buy them outright. They can get a secondhand MD-80 for a couple million. They can't get a secondhand 737 or A320 series for anything close to that. They can buy five MD-80s for the same price. The 757s were an exception to this rule because they wanted to gamble with a new market. This was a one-time thing (at least for the next few years).
If they were any other airline I would think it's possible, but the G4 model isn't like any other airline. They'll stick with the MDs and a handful of 75s for a while.
EY460 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 233 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19830 times:
Maybe they will look to buy second hand A32x. Lots of carrier will be upgrading to the NEO and prices of the older versions will drop and frames will be availablr. Older A32x will be more efficient than MD80.
RWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2159 posts, RR: 4 Reply 13, posted (11 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 19003 times:
Quoting atcsundevil (Reply 11): They are all still way too expensive. G4 will not lease aircraft -- they will only buy them outright. They can get a secondhand MD-80 for a couple million.
In 5 years from now, 320 family aircraft will be discarded left and right, replaced by newer NEO models and 737-800/900 ER MAX aircraft. IMO, those planes that are being replaced will glut the used plane market and drive the prices way down on earlier built 320 family planes, just what has happened with M80's for the past several years and currently as well. G4 doesn't need to rush it, if they are really going to replace an entire fleet of M80's with 320's down the road, it's best to have done your homework well in advance, IMHO.
Next Flights: AS PDX-SEA-KOA on DH4/738 in F, HA KOA-OGG on 717 in Y, AS OGG-PDX on 738 in F
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11708 posts, RR: 52 Reply 15, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 18010 times:
I G4 going to retire some of their MD-80s and replace them with the A-32X family?
They currently have 58 MD-80s and 4 B-757s they own, plus they have another two B-757s they leased.
They just got their ETOPS certficate for thei B-757 Hawaii flights, here is he schedule of when and where th Hawaii flights are and a picture of one of their B-757Es;
Las Vegas – begins June 29
Fresno, Calif. – begins June 30
Bellingham, Wash. – begins November 15
Monterey, Calif – begins November 16
Eugene, Ore. – begins November 17
Santa Maria, Calif. – begins November 17
Stockton, Calif. – begins November 18
Allegiant will also offer nonstop air service to Maui from:
Bellingham, Wash. – begins November 14
Allegiant is still planning to grow and is looking at other route options. Previously Levy has stated that the airline is looking at the possibility of flying to Canada, Mexico and even South America.
jetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 2901 posts, RR: 28 Reply 17, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 17784 times:
Allegiant held a conference with its airport partners in May. At that event, Andrew Levy, the President of the company, stated that the carrier would be moving toward a new aircraft type. The rise in the price of fuel and the fall in the values of some older 320/737 aircraft now make it the time to switch. He publicly stated that Allegiant had acquired its last M80, but that the type would fly on for the carrier for many years.
Basically, the economics now favor used 320/737s. Looks like the choice might be the 320 series.
slcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2452 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 17456 times:
I think it makes sense for them to explore the possibility just in case fuel really shoots thru the roof. They probably will be fine but allegiant is smart I bet they want to have an Airbus backup plan in place ahead of time. I don't think they have any plans or will anytime soon this is purely exploring the idea and will try to keep the mad dogs
srbmod From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 16888 posts, RR: 51 Reply 19, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 16760 times:
Quoting jetlanta (Reply 17): Basically, the economics now favor used 320/737s. Looks like the choice might be the 320 series.
Airlines like Delta will be replacing some of the A320s with 737-900ERs in the coming years, plus with the A320NEO scheduled to enter service in 2015, there will be a bigger supply of A320 a/c on the market in the coming years, not so much with 737NG a/c.
Allegiant could potentially also have interest in A320 a/c that are currently stored as well. Part of the Kingfisher A320 fleet is listed on Airfleets as being stored (along with the Kingfisher Red A320s) and there's also the former Spanair A320s that are currently in storage.
Run numbers and simulations, I imagine, to see how such a fleet would work out when it becomes affordable to acquire. The cost of the employee and software/hardware to do it should not be very expensive.
As noted up-thread, G4 could get 4 MD-90s, 6 MD-88s or 12 MD-82s for what they would pay for an A320-200 of the same vintage (early-to-mid-1990s) so at the moment, adding the A320 family doesn't look cost-effective for G4 with how they currently handle fleet acquisitions.
cargolex From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1155 posts, RR: 9 Reply 24, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 15458 times:
Quoting sxf24 (Reply 21):
This leads me to believe that Allegiant is thinking long term about replacing MD-80s with A320s, both new and used.
If Allegiant is thinking about A320s, believe me they won't be new.
They may be looking at what the falloff in values may be when there is a glut of A320s on the market as all these new A320 NEOS come online - that's still five years from now. But by new? G4? Never. It would make zero financial sense for them.
Low capital expenditure is key to Allegiant's business. Buying expensive planes to do the same job as cheap ones would be very out of character, even if they do better on fuel.
25 MLI717fan: I was kind of thinking that too, but what about A300 or A310? Too old? I would think they could get 767s for cheaper than an A330, although I have no
26 lightsaber: How many MD-80s are flying? As soon as the number drops below 250, the costs to support the type go up and that means higher maintenance bills. Aller
27 oflanigan: It would seem odd for G4 to buy "new" A320s, but like others have said, if the discount is great closer to NEO introduction, who wouldn't grab new bui
28 srbmod: Allegiant operates every version of the MD-80 family from the MD-81 through the MD-88. Their fleet is predominantly MD-82 and MD-83 a/c. They've got a
29 Web: Although most likely wishful thinking, I like this idea! The economics, though, would probably be pretty bad; anyone have numbers for these versus A3
30 FATFlyer: This thread started after I left last night for dinner with my wife. Allegiant has said for the last couple of years that they were looking at acquiri
31 BMI727: According to Wikipedia the number stood at 886 in 2009. American and Delta account for over 300 of them plus 38 at Allegiant. When retirements start
32 FATFlyer: I should have said A320 instead of just Airbus. Yes I agree that appears to be the front runner. Following Allegiant's fleet history they will probab