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Turkish To Decide Between 747-8i / A380 Next Month  
User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 395 posts, RR: 11
Posted (1 year 10 months 14 hours ago) and read 31344 times:

I already mentioned this in the thread about the firmed-up Transaero A380 order, but I think it deserves its own thread.

TK stated that they are going to decide between the 747-8i and the A380 before the end of July.
Talk is of at least 15 of whichever type they choose.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...s-or-boeing-jumbos-next-month.html

Quote:
Turk Hava Yollari AO, or Turkish Airlines, will order at least 15 jumbo airliners valued at $4 billion from Airbus SAS (EAD) or Boeing Co. (BA) as early as next month


This order seems to have been in the works for ages - I think they first mentioned that they were evaluating 747-8i and A380 as far back as 2009/2010. Looks like we'll know the outcome of that before the end of Farnborough.


Sláinte!
159 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 14 hours ago) and read 31282 times:

I'll be chuffed to bits if they take A380 but think this has 748i written all over it.

15 frames seems a lot doesnt it>?



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 395 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 13 hours ago) and read 31068 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
I'll be chuffed to bits if they take A380 but think this has 748i written all over it.

Just out of curiousity: Why do you think so? Any particular reason or just a hunch?

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):

15 frames seems a lot doesnt it>?

I thought the same - I expected maybe 10. What they're saying, though, is that 15 is the minimum, i.e. it could well be even more than 15.



Sláinte!
User currently offlineNimish From India, joined Feb 2005, 3171 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 13 hours ago) and read 31016 times:

I think it's the 748 too, just a guess given the 380 might be too much capacity for them, plus Boeing is probably desperate for additional sales so TK should get a great deal on the 748s.


Latest Trip Report - GoAir BLR-BOM-BLR
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 13 hours ago) and read 30794 times:

Quoting anfromme (Reply 2):

I think 15 A380s is a tall order, but 15 748is a bit easier to absorb.

I think the 748i is a more natural evolution, capacity wise and I also think Boeing have this in the bag because they usually win more orders after EIS, and my gut says TK could use the capacity now, not in 2015 when the first A388 would be available probably.

Will be a seriously handsome looking bird as well.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30664 times:
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Turkish just got a bunch of great looking 77W's, what do these planes lack ? Nada. Getting 748 or A380 is " keeping up with Emirates", and why get another plane type to the fleet. They should order 15 77W's more and not have an ego trip.

User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12322 posts, RR: 35
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30659 times:

It would be a big boost to the 748 program if TK were to choose it; Turkish has been (along with the M/E carriers) one of the biggest carriers never to have used the 747.

I am wondering whether TK's long awaited mid-size widebody deal might have a bearing on this; TK has been due to choose either the 787 or A350 for some time now. While Boeing would undoubtedly give TK a very good deal on 748s and 787s (and likewise Airbus with A380s and A350s), politics would have a big impact here and the Turkish govt would probably like to "share the love around" for political reasons.


User currently offlineflipdewaf From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2006, 1540 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30604 times:
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Quoting jfk777 (Reply 5):
Turkish just got a bunch of great looking 77W's, what do these planes lack ?

200 seats?

Fred


User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10359 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30562 times:

I also think that the 748I is the favourite here, the A380 seems to be a step too much, especially if they talk about 15 or more.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 5):
Turkish just got a bunch of great looking 77W's, what do these planes lack ? Nada. Getting 748 or A380 is " keeping up with Emirates", and why get another plane type to the fleet. They should order 15 77W's more and not have an ego trip.

Rubbish. If they can fill them, the Quads are better, and, as being more comfortable, a better tool for marketing also than the 77W, which contrary than you say is THE real me-too plane today. Maybe they even hand back a few 77Ws for 748Is as the fleet growth seems very massive otherwise?


User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12029 posts, RR: 47
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30479 times:
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Quoting jfk777 (Reply 5):
Getting 748 or A380 is " keeping up with Emirates", and why get another plane type to the fleet. They should order 15 77W's more and not have an ego trip.

What?   

TK is an impressive airline and is growing at a significant rate. They clearly need bigger planes and can justify the cost. Like EK, they are very well placed geographically to run a very large connection-based airline. They've also suggested they won't be buying A350s or 787s as they need bigger planes. It looks like their future long-haul fleet will be 77W and A380/748. How long they'll keep A330s for regional routes remains to be seen.



Hey AA, the 1960s called. They want their planes back!
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4360 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30321 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
I'll be chuffed to bits if they take A380 but think this has 748i written all over it.

15 frames seems a lot doesnt it>?

Just the beginning. If you look at the current growth rates of Turkey, 15 ULA are just right for the moment, and on longer term they need more, and I would claim 15 of each.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 5):
Turkish just got a bunch of great looking 77W's, what do these planes lack ? Nada. Getting 748 or A380 is " keeping up with Emirates", and why get another plane type to the fleet. They should order 15 77W's more and not have an ego trip.

The CASM of the 77W just is too bad - if your competition has a 20% better CASM don't go for such old technology. 748I would make sense as the more conservative choice, A380 to really join the first row of world airlines.
I'm sure in the end the money decides at this purchase.


User currently offlineTK1244 From Netherlands, joined May 2007, 329 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30281 times:
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Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
TK has been due to choose either the 787 or A350 for some time now.

There won't be any 787/A350 order since TK is looking for the larger planes. Atleast that's what CEO T.K. says in the article:

"It hasn’t ordered Boeing’s 787 or the Airbus A350, the newest wide-bodies, and is unlikely to do so as it seeks larger jets, Chief Executive Officer Temel Kotil has said."



"The future is in the skies. For any nation that cannot defend its skies will never be confident of its future." Atatürk
User currently offlineCXfirst From Norway, joined Jan 2007, 2927 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30223 times:

Quoting Nimish (Reply 3):
I think it's the 748 too, just a guess given the 380 might be too much capacity for them, plus Boeing is probably desperate for additional sales so TK should get a great deal on the 748s.

They have had good growth. And they are ambitious.

That too me says A380. I really think that they believe they can fill them.

15 of the largest aircraft, really says a lot to the world. That puts their aircraft order in the LH, AF, BA territory, almost at SQ, QF level. They will be a force to be reckoned with.

-CXfirst



From Norway, live in Australia
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8640 posts, RR: 75
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30228 times:

Quoting anfromme (Thread starter):

TK stated that they are going to decide between the 747-8i and the A380 before the end of July.
Talk is of at least 15 of whichever type they choose.

The third option, not mentioned, could be to order neither and get more 777s.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4360 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 30150 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 13):
The third option, not mentioned, could be to order neither and get more 777s.

I don't think so. This would neither be equivalent to the role Turkey sees for itself now, the actual growth and would not make financial sense. The 748I doesn't cost much more than the 77W, is bigger and has better CASM. Now that Boeing also states clearly that 77W you order now will be obsolete after a few years of operation due to the next generation 777, I expect the big time of the 77W to be over.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 11 hours ago) and read 30089 times:
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Quoting na (Reply 8):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 5):Turkish just got a bunch of great looking 77W's, what do these planes lack ? Nada. Getting 748 or A380 is " keeping up with Emirates", and why get another plane type to the fleet. They should order 15 77W's more and not have an ego trip.
Rubbish. If they can fill them, the Quads are better, and, as being more comfortable, a better tool for marketing also than the 77W, which contrary than you say is THE real me-too plane today. Maybe they even hand back a few 77Ws for 748Is as the fleet growth seems very massive otherwise?

So do they need 15 748 or A380 for growth or do they need 15 BIG planes to replace 15 77W's since you would hand back a "few" ? The TK 77W seats 337 passengers, is a 600 seat A380 an answer ? TK doesn't have First Class and limited size J Class, only 28 on the 77W. TK should watch what happens to airlines when they get all the big planes planes they want, remember JAL and all its 747's Bankrupt but the biggest plane is now a 77W.


User currently offlinegokmengs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1123 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 11 hours ago) and read 30044 times:

This order is in the works for ages, I love TK but they always seem to miss the boat when it comes to WB orders. TK is ambitious and likes to show off, even if 380 is a bit large for what they need they would purchase it and make it work. However for many reasons I would not go in to so the thread doesn't go down the tubes Boeing can thank Mr. Sarkozy for the 748 order they will get from TK. That changed everything on this order. Although not what it used to be but politics play some part in TK's orders. They will buy A and B, but Airbus is a at significant disadvantage even though Sarkozy is gone, relationship will take years to go back to the good ol days.


Edited for spelling.

[Edited 2012-06-21 06:06:33]


Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
User currently offlineTK1244 From Netherlands, joined May 2007, 329 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 11 hours ago) and read 29965 times:
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Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
So do they need 15 748 or A380 for growth or do they need 15 BIG planes to replace 15 77W's since you would hand back a "few" ?

They will use them for growth not to replace the Boeing 77W's

Quoting gokmengs (Reply 16):
Although not what it used to be but politics play some part in TK's orders. They will buy A and B, but Airbus is a at significant disadvantage even though Sarkozy is gone, relationship will take years to go back to the good ol days.

I don't see an A380 order, but it won't be because of Sarkozy and his proposed 'Armenian Genocide' law. The thing in Turkey is that they have a big mouth towards these countries, but in the end they'll do nothing what they actually say. Remember the attack on the Mavi Marmara ship (tender for the modernization of Turkish tanks went to Israel after it) and the proposed 'Armenian Genocide' law (tender for the chip used on Turkish passports originally went to a French company...)

[Edited 2012-06-21 06:08:26]


"The future is in the skies. For any nation that cannot defend its skies will never be confident of its future." Atatürk
User currently offlinegokmengs From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1123 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 11 hours ago) and read 29923 times:

Quoting TK1244 (Reply 17):

Although I don't see an A380 order, it won't be because of Sarkozy and his proposed 'Armenian Genocide' law. The thing in Turkey is that they have a big mouth towards these countries, but in the end they'll do nothing what they actually say. Remember the attack on the Mavi Marmara ship (tender for the modernization of Turkish tanks went to Israel after it) and the proposed 'Armenian Genocide' law (tender for the chip used on Turkish passports originally went to a French company...)
Much less visible orders, plus president is all show when it comes to Israel, always wants strong ties behind the scene. TK always wanted to get the 380 sine EIS, made every plan for it. Lets see what happens its Airbus's order to lose. Whatever they decide they need it pronto....



Gercekleri Tarih Yazar Tarihide Galatasaray
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10359 posts, RR: 11
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 11 hours ago) and read 29795 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
So do they need 15 748 or A380 for growth or do they need 15 BIG planes to replace 15 77W's since you would hand back a "few" ?

I only said a growth by 15 VLAs, either A380 or 748, is massive even for an ambitious airline like TK. I dont expect it, but also wouldnt wonder to much if some 77Ws would be handed back once 748s arrive, should they be ordered.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
TK should watch what happens to airlines when they get all the big planes planes they want, remember JAL and all its 747's Bankrupt but the biggest plane is now a 77W.

JAL is a special case with dramatic problems. The 777 doesnt make them a great airline now, they have lost much business and are a shadow of their former self and not a forerunner of the industry anymore. Their problems had absolutely nothing to do with the planes they had, they were just a too big operation, badly managed in a long crisis. Their huge 777 fleet didnt help them to go bankrupt anyway. The 77W is btw only slightly smaller than the 744 so I dont see your point at all.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 14):
Now that Boeing also states clearly that 77W you order now will be obsolete after a few years of operation due to the next generation 777, I expect the big time of the 77W to be over.

  
Soon Boeing will have problems to get orders for the current 777 models for sure because the 77X will be at the horizon and in the 20s the 77W will technologically become what the 744 is now. Time moves on.


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 11 hours ago) and read 29592 times:

If past orders are a guide - they'll split this order. Have they definitively said for definite one or the other and not both?


What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineNorthstar80 From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 206 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 11 hours ago) and read 29574 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 20):
If past orders are a guide - they'll split this order. Have they definitively said for definite one or the other and not both?

The bloomberg article says that it qont be a split order



You have to have your heart in the business and the business in your heart. -Thomas J Watson
User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 10 hours ago) and read 29419 times:

While I agree that rationally speaking the 748 seems a more logical choice, I have difficulties believing that Turks would go for ''the more sensible choice''. It's just not really part of their mentality. And in this case, they would have a point. While a TK 748 would indeed be looking incredibly beautiful, the average traveller would never notice it. The A380 on the other hand is a fantastic marketing tool and as TK is competing against EK, QR, EY that will all at some point operate the whale, practically a necessity.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):

You are seriously misinformed. JAL didn't go bankrupt because of their 747s. And TK is facing serious congestion-related constraints at IST. It's more important for TK to expand their network to more destinations, rather than to boost frequencies to existing ones. It's not like your screenname here makes any effort in concealing your blatant bias, but your personal preference doesn't determine what the rest of the world perceives as 'reality'.



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlineKDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 155 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 10 hours ago) and read 29367 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 4):
I think the 748i is a more natural evolution, capacity wise and I also think Boeing have this in the bag because they usually win more orders after EIS, and my gut says TK could use the capacity now, not in 2015 when the first A388 would be available probably.

Will be a seriously handsome looking bird as well.

I think both birds were a bit too much capacity wise, but hey, I obviously dont run the airline. It would be nice to see the 748i win this one. I wonder if they were part of the 30+ MOU's Boeing was hoping to "firm up soon"?


User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 16931 posts, RR: 48
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 10 hours ago) and read 29292 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 5):
Getting 748 or A380 is " keeping up with Emirates",

   I see no reason for a plane larger than the 77W for them. They need frequency more than gauge, and their average LF to the US is in the 70s.



E pur si muove -Galileo
25 A388 : Why are 15 A388's too much for TK to expand? On what is this (exactly) based? EK ordered so many widebodies and it seems to work for them. TK has stat
26 phxa340 : You do not need an A380 to compete with an A380, period.
27 Stitch : If TK needs to grow in the near term, then the 747-8 is probably the correct choice for them based on availability. Airbus continues to struggle to ge
28 CHRISBA777ER : Thing is, and lots on this site are guilty of this, we tend to view things like aircraft orders and the relative success of airliner programmes as a
29 Post contains links something : CASM-wise, yes you do. Labor-cost wise, obviously. Prestige-wise, that too. Maximizing the revenue potential of slots at slot restricted airports, th
30 anfromme : I agree. Also, if they were really that concerned about whether they get their planes in 2015 or 2016, they could've placed an order back in 2010 whe
31 AirbusA6 : If TK had been an existing 744 operator, then I would imagine them buying the 748i, but as they're not, and expect rapid growth in the next few years,
32 Roseflyer : Turkish has a very split fleet between Airbus and Boeing, so I don’t see any loyalty to either side. It will be interesting to see which way they go
33 clydenairways : I think this one is too close to call and i don't think it will be the different capacities that will decide in the end. For the A380. Keeping up with
34 leftyboarder : Honestly, I would like to see A380 for the VLA order of 12-15 aircraft and a top-up order of around 8-10 for the 77W/333 for growth in non-trunk route
35 something : It's not a sweeping statement, it's a simple observation and not in the slightest ''racist'' or anything remotely close to that effect. Lufthansa and
36 Northstar80 : Regardless of subject, I don't think this is an appropriate way to comment about other nations.
37 MaverickM11 : They can't fill the 77Ws to the Americas--where are they going to put more 77Ws? Let alone 380s?
38 something : Again, if you think that my statement holds ''judgmental overtone'', it says more about you than it does about me. What you're basically saying is ''
39 columba : Istanbul would be perfect Hub to connect Europe with Asia and at a later time also American travellers to Asia and Australia.
40 CHRISBA777ER : I didnt mention the R word - you did. Your statement implies Turkish people as part of their nature do not make sensible choices. I know lots of sens
41 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Not in the cabin you wouldnt.
42 JerseyFlyer : Maybe Transaero for 4. There are also 2 Air Austral deferrals. But HK Airlines - only just ordered!
43 OM617 : IIRC, MS, ME, RJ, KU, IA, IR, SV, RB have all flown 747 at one time or another. Enough with A v. B for the moment. Later in the article, it says TK i
44 flyglobal : I know many Turkish people and a lot of their mentality. These people are very proud, because of the success of Turkish end they like that Turkish is
45 Post contains images MaverickM11 : TK's order would fit right in Those carriers are nothing to aspire to What a disaster. Just stop the insanity. TK has an excellent network and 'sciss
46 AirbusA6 : The A380 is far more of a statement of intent than the 748i, everyone knows that it's the largest airliner you can get, and the statement to the world
47 jfk777 : My Dear British Sir, Just because i am " Jfk 777" doesn't mean the best airplane is a 777. And JFK is not a "perfect" airport, if I had to say Changi
48 leftyboarder : In fact they are... Except YYZ (limited by bilaterals), GRU (worst performing long haul route so far) and IAH (starting only next year), all long hau
49 MaverickM11 : CAN is 4/week, HKG 6/week, KIX/IST 5/week That's not full--10pts higher and *then* maybe they'd need to start looking at larger aircraft, but with th
50 Turkish350XWB : 7/week This are average numbers, so it is likely that some routes have 85% LF or higher. You are right in the way that upgrading the aircraft on the
51 peanuts : That's nothing to write home about. Today's competitive environment requires better load factors than those. Way better. And LF is, obviously, not th
52 Post contains images LAXDESI : However, it won't be easy to get new B77W or used ones anytime soon. Is TK still leasing 9W 777s?
53 MaverickM11 : Not currently scheduled in 2013 as far as I can see That's why it's an average--then that would also mean there are routes that are in the 60s and lo
54 Mcoov : I hope it's the 748i. That program needs some serious life blown into it.
55 goosebayguy : I was at MAN recently and surprised by the number of TK aircraft flying in. I then took a look at their fleet and it caught me by surprise. They are c
56 Post contains images leftyboarder : No, and I wouldn't expect them to lease them again as cabin layout is vastly different from the rest of the 77W fleet. TK might be operating lots of
57 Post contains images astuteman : What the above tells me is that the issue with airlines that have struggled whilst operating a large fleet of 747's has not been having "4 engined 74
58 Post contains links tozbek : How will Turkish Airlines new painting will look on Boeing 747-8 or Airbus A380? Here you a video: http://youtu.be/w_YCW9Pqt3Y
59 phxa340 : Maybe to you , but as many many members have pointed out , most customers could care less nor even know what type of plane they are on. Prestige does
60 Turkish350XWB : Not automatically. It can also mean there is many many flights with a LF around 70. Anyway, the max and min LF numbers are just speculation. We don't
61 columba : I still believe that an order for either aircaft is likely, but at different times. The 747-8I is available much earlier and is not as big as the A380
62 ebj1248650 : This, perhaps, makes more sense because it allows the airline to introduce one new large airplane at a time. The success of 748i operations would the
63 ER757 : This may be a bellweather order for the above reason. I am inclined to agree with those that have said the 748 is a more logical step up for TK, but
64 U2380 : Oh please. They might not know the name, but most people know about the 'new one with two decks.' Similarly, many people know about the 'Dreamliner'.
65 anfromme : It would all come down to how TK were to configure their planes, of course, because that defines how close each airplane would be to their existing 7
66 MaverickM11 : Why are we taking this tangent on max/min? The average is in the mid 70s; that is not full. Period.
67 migair54 : Given the growth ok TK in the last years I think they will be able to use A380 in some of the routes they already operates. Of course we all know that
68 Turkish350XWB : Because only the min/max LF can tell if a specific (!) route needs to be upgraded in terms of seat capacity. This is called maths and works quite wel
69 Post contains images PlymSpotter : I think the forthcoming creation of a new IST hub will have a large bearing on the order. It's going to be what, anything up to a 120mppa facility? TK
70 YULWinterSkies : Passenger comfort as what airlines value when deciding for a fleet type is where the 'rubbish' word should be. Yeah, they don't give a damn thing abo
71 MaverickM11 : No. TK is not buying a plane for a specific route, and even if there are one or a handful of routes that are indeed full, that means the rest of the
72 Post contains links tcm : May I remind that TK's L/F jumped by over 5% in Q1 and these a/c will go into operation in 2-3 years time, considering TK's growth numbers, I don't s
73 scbriml : Yes, international traffic was up 26%. You don't need that much growth for very long before you need bigger planes.
74 wingman : I don't understand...how did TK grow and become profitable without the 380? Or is it just that they need it now to stop from going bankrupt?
75 airbazar : And IST has no room for growth. That to me puts the A380 is a pretty good position. The big question here is the new IST airport. How is that coming
76 tcm : The government aims to tender the project in September this year and complete phase-1 of the new airport by 2015. The complete project will have 5-ru
77 Mortyman : Did'nt Turkey also have a dissagrement with the US and not only France over the same issue ?
78 MaverickM11 : I think TK is on its way to needing more 77Ws, or similar size aircraft, not a VLA. They can pull plenty of things to fund another widebody roundtrip
79 vincewy : There are chronic delays at IST during noon (US/Canada/Brazil) and midnight (Asia) departure banks, I have seen delays as long as 4 hours and 1-2 hou
80 phxa340 : How do you know a A350 or 787 is/won't command higher fares. Your argument is irrelevant. Again you don't need an A380 to compete with an A380 , and
81 einsteinboricua : Well there are two things to consider: 1. Capacity: can TK really fill up an A380? Let's say they introduce a new premium product: what are the chance
82 Post contains images lightsaber : How likely is this order for range? If TK orders the A388, I would expect a high MTOW, wing twist, and the latest engine PIPs. If TK orders the 748I,
83 WarpSpeed : Boeing is on record saying they will introduce a block change in 2014 to bring the 748i very close to the "brochure" fuel burn and operating costs le
84 astuteman : Indeed. 2013 is the year that A380's with about 2t lower OEW (from the airframer) and 1% or better SFC improvements come off the line (rib feet permi
85 Post contains images frigatebird : Well, TK doesn't have a first class, only the 77W's that were leased from 9W and those are leaving. Their own 77W's have Economy, Economy+ and Busine
86 U2380 : I don't. Looking through my original post, I don't believe I said anything of the sort. Care to point it out for me? I agree. Once again I agree, for
87 JerseyFlyer : They have to estimate what their load factor will be from delivery of VLA's and beyond that. The load factor today is a factor in that estimate, but
88 na : That is right on shorthaul, I sometimes even dont care. But as much experience goes its not right for longhaul. Most of my friends and family are no
89 trent1000 : I don't think this point has been mentioned (sorry if I missed it), but what about the length of time TK is prepared to wait for deliveries. To genera
90 Post contains images oldeuropean : Nice, all these assumptions what modell TK will choose, depending on the flag of the individual posters. And if we have don't have arguments, what abo
91 rheinwaldner : There are no 77W competitors (except maybe A351) that have 20% better CASM. The A380 may be close, but the 748 is probably closer to 0%. So if the CA
92 wingman : If CASM is the most important factor in aircraft acquisitions then how is it that 1400 787s and 350s and maybe 400 330s and 400 777s have been sold wh
93 airbazar : Only 2 years to build a brand new airport from the ground up? Surely there's a typo in there somewhere.
94 lightsaber : They have some room for frequency, but at low demand times. Link? While possible to build a runway and 'temporary terminal' in that time, I think it
95 aerorobnz : I think the order is going to go with airbus, the fleet commonality with 319/320/321/332/333/343 will be too much of an advantage for crew training an
96 ASA : Not to throw water on the airport discussion, but I would put 2020 as a more realistic functioning year for the new airport. Building an airport from
97 Post contains links tcm : link: http://atwonline.com/airports-routes...ger-new-istanbul-airport-2016-1013 TAV built the new terminal at ESB in two years. A much smaller projec
98 fpetrutiu : I think a A380 is a liability to airlines as well. Say you opt for the A380 and you get 80% load factor on a given route. Another airline can throw in
99 Post contains images N14AZ : Strange, because there are some local air taxi companies - forgot their names, something like British Airlines, Hans Luft, France Air, EMI rates... -
100 fpetrutiu : I am not saying in the same airline, you wouldn't really have an A380 operating flight and a A350 operating MIA for example for LH. Say LH deploys th
101 Post contains images scbriml : Hmm, some airlines clearly know how to make a VLA work.
102 fpetrutiu : Sure, now and inter-hub flying will have always a spot for VLA, I am talking later on when the A350's and the 787's will be readily available. Erodin
103 Cerecl : Do we really need to have this discussion again? TK has decided to operate VLAs, at the same time reportedly delaying orders for 787/A350. This alone
104 fpetrutiu : Yes, but much less of one since lower fuel consumption (2 vs 4 big engines), I believe the 748i and the A380 would be much more succeptible to this t
105 Cerecl : The airlines which would consider operating VLAs are usually (not without exception) major airlines with extensive networks. If one route is facing i
106 fpetrutiu : This I completely agree with. It is just very important to remember that it is very relative to the load factor. So the moment the load factor starts
107 MeCe : Here is today's load for western long haul flights : TK 11 777W tot j e+ e 337 063 028 246 327 052 025 250 l/f 97 082 089 101 TK 1 777W 337 063 028 24
108 Post contains images Northstar80 : Wow, Comfort Class seems to be doing good, I always had the impression that it was poor performing. Well, I am looking forward to my JFK and LAX trip
109 col : Considering your scenario makes no sense. You have devised a scenario which is so far from reality it beggers belief, and is purely there to put down
110 leftyboarder : All this discussion of whether some other carrier will match TK's 380/748 with some shiny 350/787 is hypothetical at best, as TK relies on transfer ra
111 columba : Bad example as FRA is a big LH hub while AA don´t even have a code share partner there. LH would transport all connecting passengers that would fly
112 Turkish350XWB : Thanks, that was very interesting. And this also shows that TK is in the position now to put more premium seats in their aircraft. But if it orders t
113 Post contains links tcm : I don't want to hijack this thread with further discussions about the new airport. But I know that the government is very serious in realizing the ne
114 Cerecl : Look, I understand what you are trying to say, but as some members have already pointed out, your scenario is over-simplistic and is designed to suit
115 zeke : Airbus operated an A380 into IST in 2007, and LH operated an A380 into IST last year.
116 Post contains images lightsaber : Thank you for the link. In the details, it says the airport will take 5 years. More along my timeline. Yes, multiple years are thrown out... Quote: "
117 col : Very well put. Luckily in KUL we have EK and soon MH. In SIN we have SQ, LH, QF and now AF. A good selection, but still more options would be very we
118 Post contains links sunrisevalley : Lufthansa 747-8 Fuel Burn (by trex8 Jun 19 2012 in Tech Ops) The fuel burn for LH's 748i ( at a rather heavier than normal ~ 236t DOW) with 50t payloa
119 fpetrutiu : You don't have enough next gen aircrafts out there yet. I was talking in the future in about 5-10 years where 787 and A350's will be readily availabl
120 Post contains images MeCe : This operations are not revenue flights, promoting only and with special permission Turkish CAA. Actually new airport is directly involved with TK's
121 Post contains images lightsaber : Except the VLA's being delivered today still have a lower CASM. I agree there will be more non-stops. We've had other threads where I (and others) ha
122 col : Your 787/350's are going to be feeding the VLA's and VV. They will live together, and help each other's markets grow. If SQ fly to more secondary cit
123 Post contains images gemuser : Spot on! Gemuser
124 SchorschNG : If you operate a B777-300ER already, why go for the slightly larger B747-9I? Why not making the whole step? Additionally, TK will probably install a v
125 astuteman : The airlines that are ordering A380's and 748i's are ALSO ordering 787's and A350's. SQ (for example) didn't cancel their A380's when they ordered 78
126 DLPMMM : What makes you think that TK will suddenly decide to start offering a long haul First Class? Their current products are only economy, premium economy
127 rheinwaldner : Of course CASM is the most important factor only when comparing similar aircraft (regarding range and size). CASM of the A320 (especially the A321) a
128 airbazar : I don't think they have a choice if they want to play with the big boys. In just a few years I expect to see a much consolidated landscape in Europe
129 DLPMMM : Sorry, but that makes no sense. Many of the largest and most profitable carriers have not had an F class recently (DL, KL, CO, IB,) and many of those
130 Stitch : I guess it depends on how long you expect to need to make the whole step. Boeing's current marketing of the 747-8 vis-a-vis the 777-300ER is the high
131 UALWN : I can't believe you used "largest", "most profitable" and IB in the same sentence.
132 MaverickM11 : I don't see them add F; they had the opportunity to experiment with it with the 9W aircraft and obviously they didn't keep it. Also every time I've f
133 DLPMMM : IB is pretty large I think.
134 vincewy : As a FF using TK for long-hauls, I'll be glad whether it's A388 or 748, anything above 773 is an upgrade. In the short and near terms, 748 will work
135 fpetrutiu : Not sure where you get that from since I am thowing the 748i in the same boat with the A380 and simply stating that the A350 and the 787 will be erod
136 Stitch : And if TK sees the growth many on this thread believe it will, a fleet of A380-800s and 747-8s may very well be the prudent one. As 747-8 routes satu
137 astuteman : That was my point, when airlines continue to order 787's/A350's alongside 748i's/A380's. There IS room for both in the marketplace. As Lightsaber say
138 UALWN : It's not particularly large (103 mainline aircraft), and it's certainly not "most profitable."
139 sunrisevalley : Which is the longest sector TK flies? IST-ORD .
140 Post contains images scbriml : Sorry, but what are you paying the extra $300 for? Paris is not a hub?
141 leftyboarder : Hardly. IST-NRT, IST-LAX and IST-GRU are all longer. And what is the relevance?
142 flipdewaf : But you have to asume there that the profit margins are larger than the difference in CASM between the aircraft. A very simplistc argument against yo
143 Post contains links yeogeo : For what its worth, TK’s longest 5: 5971nm ISTº-LAX Turkish ˇ 77Wx7 5689nm IST-GRU Turkish 77Wx4 4869nm IST-NRT Turkish 77Wx7 4771nm IST-ORD Turk
144 airbazar : KL is part of AF. AF certainly has F class. CO is UA, and UA certainly has F class. IB may not have F class but over the last year they expanded thei
145 DLPMMM : You are entitled to your opinion. I disagree with your opinion that they need an F class to compete. Very few businesses actually allow F class ticke
146 sunrisevalley : The relevance as I see it is , do they have a need for an aircraft that can haul more than the 77W over city pairs time/distances greater than what t
147 UALWN : I'm afraid you got that wrong: IB is bleeding money while BA has been profitable for a while. In any case, I doubt this has much to do with F class v
148 747400sp : It would make more since if they order 747-8I, because of the commonwealth between the 747-8I and 77Ws, which Turkish already have. Wish Turkish could
149 Stitch : If traffic growth over the next two decades if what some up-thread believe, there might be a fair chance of that wish coming true.
150 Burkhard : I completely agree with this. The GDP of Turkey hat a growth of 8.46 %, only the Chinese one was higher, it currently scores 18th or 17th on the worl
151 Post contains images scbriml : On that basis, it would make equal sense if they ordered A380s because of the "commonwealth" between the A380 and A330s/A340s that TK already operate
152 dfambro : By this logic, the US and Japan should be chock-full of 380s. But I agree, 380 for TK if they feel very aggressive about their growth, 748s if they'r
153 gemuser : ??? I think he was referring to the fact that Turkey had a GDP growth rate of 8.5% for 2011. The USA had one of 1.5 and Japan of -0.5, on this basis,
154 Burkhard : AFAIK quite some A380 fly into the US daily already now, and this number will increase. The fact that the US airlines are organized in a way that the
155 Turkish350XWB : I cannot see any strong correlation between the GDP growth and the need for A380. Other factors are much more important, as aviation structure, total
156 Stitch : All true, but in general, as more Turks are able to travel, they only have one real gateway to do so - Atatürk International Airport. And at some po
157 Post contains links and images lightsaber : Any more real information about TK and their possible VLA order? Thank you. It really shows how well placed TK is for connecting. I could see every on
158 Stitch : Farnborough makes the most sense for an announcement, whichever model they have chosen. Boeing have kind of implied they will have 747-8 orders to an
159 Post contains images dfambro : Only the China comparison was about growth rate, the rest of the post was based on a list ranking countries by GDP, not their growth rates.
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