Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 2019 posts, RR: 2 Posted (3 years 1 month 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11187 times:
In the recent years we have an outbreak of mergers and, like the CEOs like to say, "consolidations" in the industry, with UA/CO, AF/KL , IB/BA, LA/JJ, and so on. I'm not an expert but apparently this is the tendency in order to survive in a very competitive world, specially in an industry that suffers with a lot of factors ( oil, volcanoes, flu, economic crisis, competition ).
So, assuming this is the future, where ( or who ) do you think will be the next major mergers between big carriers ?
Besides the USA carriers ( where there is a lot of noise with AA/US ), Is it possible to think in a EK/EY/QR merger ?
Or a new entity with SQ/QF ?
Everything is possible. What it seems like total craziness today could be the best option in a few years if some holes in the cheese are properly aligned. Obviously some moves are more logical or expected, but I never say never.
Personally I'm not a big fan of mergers, I love to see competition and I would like more players in the field over a few big giants fighting, but some times the ( economic ) reality is the boss.
aerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7683 posts, RR: 16
Reply 9, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 8156 times:
I think that Europe is where the next major consolidation/s will happen - it was very evident on a recent 6 week spotting tour of Europe how quiet the airports like BCN/ZRH/FRA/AMS/CDG/ORY have become and how many flights have already been reduced. I think it will only become worse with all Eurozone problems.
One thing I think should happen is carriers like LX and OS should be absorbed fully into LH financial results & fleets and smaller carriers like SAS/Croatia/Aegean/Adria/LOT potentially as well. Then they could be incorporated/downsized into the larger airline's regional carriers and flights/aircraft types rationalized so that they are not flying duplicate flights on routes already flown even more than they are already. Effectively this would mean they are only operating as fully integrated feeder carriers for LH and as such any future aircraft orders made from the combined group not from an individual brand, and that any aircraft in the fleet could be chopped and changed if one regional carrier was underperforming or needing extra capacity.. I would envisage that the non local airline would pull out of routes to allow the local brand to maintain flights and any remaining national pride. All aircraft would have "Operating on behalf of Lufthansa or something on the aircraft but maintain overall liveries.
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4506 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 7774 times:
I agree that consolidation will be in Europe over the next years, and predict that in ten years there will be only three network carriers left:
LH (including LX, SN, OS?, ...?)
AF (including KL, AZ, OK?,...?)
BA (including IB,AB?...?)
This process will largely go along the current alliances, but also have some surprises. Mergers need money and financing, and a solid banking sector that can do its job and not only burn hundred billions of tax money. So I expect consolidation of the banks to happen faster.
mikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 7377 times:
Nobody knows what's going to happen in Europe, the EU the Euro etc
We can't make any predictions on anything let alone its airlines until the dust cloud (from an explosion that hasn't even happened yet) has settled. Let's just hope it is an explosion that improves matters.
The trouble with the 3 alliances and in some cases a few of the mergers is that their members are beginning to resemble married couples that are growing apart.
What seemed like common sense and worked when they were formed in some cases appears not such a good idea now.
(through no fault of any particular airline...........it's just the way things have 'panned' out)
Impossible I know but it's a shame the situation cannot be more fluid and more adaptable to outside change so every airline involved in Star, Sky and One can wring the most out of what is available and each other in their partnerships.
We live in exciting (not always in a good way) times.
Fingers crossed but the whole damn thing is like LHR at Easter (strung out with the reserve tank empty)....one unexpected event (natural, economic, terrorism etc) and the whole edifice will collapse.
Like I said...fingers crossed.
Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 9200 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5019 times:
Quoting mikey72 (Reply 12): We can't make any predictions on anything let alone its airlines until the dust cloud (from an explosion that hasn't even happened yet) has settled. Let's just hope it is an explosion that improves matters.
But there is one major airline that has a significant part of it's business outside of the EU and Euro: LH operated by LX
A388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 10345 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4768 times:
I also see Europe as the next and probably only continent where more consolidation will happen in the coming years. Asia in my opinion will remain as it is as I don't see any of the big players there wanting to consolidate (due to pride issues).
The Middle Eastern carriers in my opinion will also not merge because they all have big growth ambitions each. Unless one of the airlines in this region is going downhill faster than speedy gonzales, I don't see consolidation happening there in the foreseeable future but Europe, yes (in my opinion the Scandinavian region is the next target).
time2lyme From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Oct 2008, 54 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4768 times:
Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 9): it was very evident on a recent 6 week spotting tour of Europe how quiet the airports like BCN/ZRH/FRA/AMS/CDG/ORY have become
Are you nuts? I've recently been in FRA, ZRH and CGN and they were buzzing.
Try and book a flight to virtually anywhere in Europe from the UK 4 weeks in advance, and you'll get a nice cheap flight. Try doing so within a week of travel and you might as well stick to a major
I've seen business class seats cheaper than cattle class
Get yourself on a flight - and it's FULL !!
Europe might be suffering, but the UK has gone mad !
mogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (3 years 1 month 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 4212 times:
Quoting A388 (Reply 17): Asia in my opinion will remain as it is as I don't see any of the big players there wanting to consolidate (due to pride issues).
Most of the major East Asian airlines have top notch seats, lounges, and service. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan each have 2 large carriers, yet none of them are focused on the race-to-the-bottom like the jaded US aviation industry wants you to believe is inevitable.
As an example - all of them refuse to move to 3-4-3 on their 777s despite oil being so high. They're not stupid at math, but they know there's a fine line between lowering CASM and turning themselves into a long-haul Ryanair.
As long as you're service focused and making money, there's no pressing need to consolidate.
I don't see LAN buying any airline ( like Copa or Pluna ) in the foreseeable future, they are focused in the LATAM project and IMHO they are not interested in new adventures until the integration with JJ is totally consolidated.