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The Next Big "consolidation" In The Industry?  
User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1992 posts, RR: 2
Posted (2 years 5 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 10750 times:

In the recent years we have an outbreak of mergers and, like the CEOs like to say, "consolidations" in the industry, with UA/CO, AF/KL , IB/BA, LA/JJ, and so on. I'm not an expert but apparently this is the tendency in order to survive in a very competitive world, specially in an industry that suffers with a lot of factors ( oil, volcanoes, flu, economic crisis, competition ).
So, assuming this is the future, where ( or who ) do you think will be the next major mergers between big carriers ?
Besides the USA carriers ( where there is a lot of noise with AA/US ), Is it possible to think in a EK/EY/QR merger ?
Or a new entity with SQ/QF ?

Thoughts ?

Rgds.

G.


80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
35 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 10666 times:

One of the middle eastern carriers is going to get into bed with..............

(tune in tomorrow for the next exciting episode)

Would be my bet anyway.



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlineflyingcaT From United States of America, joined May 2007, 546 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 10132 times:

Foreign ownership will no doubt come up if AA, UA or DL have a bad enough run that their alliance has to save them.

It seems that for now the Euro carriers are in more trouble but most of the issues they face are not legal but those of pride.


User currently offlinePhen From Ireland, joined Oct 2007, 318 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 10081 times:

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 1):
One of the middle eastern carriers is going to get into bed with..............

Watch out for an EY/EI tie-up, EY already own 3% of EI and word has it would like to own more...


User currently offlineCoal From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2113 posts, RR: 10
Reply 4, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 9761 times:

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
SQ/QF

  

Surely you mean MH, not SQ.

Cheers
Coal



Nxt Flts: VA SYD-LAX | VX LAX-FLL | B6 FLL-BOG-FLL | VX FLL-LAX | VA LAX-SYD | VA SYD-PER-SYD
User currently onlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10601 posts, RR: 14
Reply 5, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 9730 times:

Quoting flyingcaT (Reply 2):
Foreign ownership will no doubt come up if AA, UA or DL have a bad enough run that their alliance has to save them.

Not as long as there's a restriction on foreign ownership in the U.S.



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlinebhmdiversion From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 463 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 9644 times:

I'd say that several US Regional carriers close up shop... That's my honest opinion...

User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1992 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days ago) and read 9556 times:

Quoting Coal (Reply 4):
Surely you mean MH, not SQ.

Everything is possible. What it seems like total craziness today could be the best option in a few years if some holes in the cheese are properly aligned. Obviously some moves are more logical or expected, but I never say never.

Personally I'm not a big fan of mergers, I love to see competition and I would like more players in the field over a few big giants fighting, but some times the ( economic ) reality is the boss.

Rgds.

G.



80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
User currently offline9252fly From Canada, joined Sep 2005, 1402 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 5 months 4 days ago) and read 9448 times:

Quoting bhmdiversion (Reply 6):
I'd say that several US Regional carriers close up shop... That's my honest opinion...

I see it as more consolidation for the regional carriers. It's a tough business with tight margins,if any.


User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7342 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7719 times:

I think that Europe is where the next major consolidation/s will happen - it was very evident on a recent 6 week spotting tour of Europe how quiet the airports like BCN/ZRH/FRA/AMS/CDG/ORY have become and how many flights have already been reduced. I think it will only become worse with all Eurozone problems.

One thing I think should happen is carriers like LX and OS should be absorbed fully into LH financial results & fleets and smaller carriers like SAS/Croatia/Aegean/Adria/LOT potentially as well. Then they could be incorporated/downsized into the larger airline's regional carriers and flights/aircraft types rationalized so that they are not flying duplicate flights on routes already flown even more than they are already. Effectively this would mean they are only operating as fully integrated feeder carriers for LH and as such any future aircraft orders made from the combined group not from an individual brand, and that any aircraft in the fleet could be chopped and changed if one regional carrier was underperforming or needing extra capacity.. I would envisage that the non local airline would pull out of routes to allow the local brand to maintain flights and any remaining national pride. All aircraft would have "Operating on behalf of Lufthansa or something on the aircraft but maintain overall liveries.

I used the star alliance as the example only.


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4405 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7337 times:

I agree that consolidation will be in Europe over the next years, and predict that in ten years there will be only three network carriers left:
LH (including LX, SN, OS?, ...?)
AF (including KL, AZ, OK?,...?)
BA (including IB,AB?...?)

This process will largely go along the current alliances, but also have some surprises. Mergers need money and financing, and a solid banking sector that can do its job and not only burn hundred billions of tax money. So I expect consolidation of the banks to happen faster.


User currently offlineSean-SAN- From United States of America, joined Aug 2002, 771 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7197 times:

Most likely will be HA/AS merging, branding will be maintained between island/mainland but the company will run as a combined entity.

User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6940 times:

Nobody knows what's going to happen in Europe, the EU the Euro etc

We can't make any predictions on anything let alone its airlines until the dust cloud (from an explosion that hasn't even happened yet) has settled. Let's just hope it is an explosion that improves matters.

The trouble with the 3 alliances and in some cases a few of the mergers is that their members are beginning to resemble married couples that are growing apart.

What seemed like common sense and worked when they were formed in some cases appears not such a good idea now.

(through no fault of any particular airline...........it's just the way things have 'panned' out)

Impossible I know but it's a shame the situation cannot be more fluid and more adaptable to outside change so every airline involved in Star, Sky and One can wring the most out of what is available and each other in their partnerships.

We live in exciting (not always in a good way) times.

Fingers crossed but the whole damn thing is like LHR at Easter (strung out with the reserve tank empty)....one unexpected event (natural, economic, terrorism etc) and the whole edifice will collapse.

Like I said...fingers crossed.



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlinemagpie75 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 19 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 5435 times:
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How about a QF, SQ & NZ alliance , that would keep the middle Easters at bay for a little longer!

User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4405 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5231 times:

Quoting magpie75 (Reply 13):
How about a QF, SQ & NZ alliance , that would keep the middle Easters at bay for a little longer!

How would it? Removing competition between them would strengthen the middle Easters...


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8577 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4582 times:

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 12):
We can't make any predictions on anything let alone its airlines until the dust cloud (from an explosion that hasn't even happened yet) has settled. Let's just hope it is an explosion that improves matters.

But there is one major airline that has a significant part of it's business outside of the EU and Euro: LH operated by LX  


User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4377 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 15):
But there is one major airline that has a significant part of it's business outside of the EU and Euro: LH operated by LX

Not sure I follow...........



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9956 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4331 times:

I also see Europe as the next and probably only continent where more consolidation will happen in the coming years. Asia in my opinion will remain as it is as I don't see any of the big players there wanting to consolidate (due to pride issues).

The Middle Eastern carriers in my opinion will also not merge because they all have big growth ambitions each. Unless one of the airlines in this region is going downhill faster than speedy gonzales, I don't see consolidation happening there in the foreseeable future but Europe, yes (in my opinion the Scandinavian region is the next target).

A388


User currently offlinetime2lyme From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Oct 2008, 46 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4331 times:

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 9):
it was very evident on a recent 6 week spotting tour of Europe how quiet the airports like BCN/ZRH/FRA/AMS/CDG/ORY have become

Are you nuts?  Wow! I've recently been in FRA, ZRH and CGN and they were buzzing.

Try and book a flight to virtually anywhere in Europe from the UK 4 weeks in advance, and you'll get a nice cheap flight. Try doing so within a week of travel and you might as well stick to a major
I've seen business class seats cheaper than cattle class  

Get yourself on a flight - and it's FULL !!

Europe might be suffering, but the UK has gone mad !   


User currently offlineEzra From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 475 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4323 times:

Quoting mikey72 (Reply 16):
Quoting airbazar (Reply 15):
But there is one major airline that has a significant part of it's business outside of the EU and Euro: LH operated by LX

Not sure I follow...........

Switzerland isn't part of the Eurozone.


User currently offlinemikey72 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 1780 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4283 times:

Quoting Ezra (Reply 19):
Switzerland isn't part of the Eurozone.

Oh if only it were that easy !



Flying is like sex - I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I can stand.
User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7342 posts, RR: 13
Reply 21, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3952 times:

Quoting time2lyme (Reply 18):
Are you nuts?   I've recently been in FRA, ZRH and CGN and they were buzzing.

Busy, but not by comparison to previous visits. ZRH has not dropped back too much but FRA you could see the difference.

Quoting time2lyme (Reply 18):
Get yourself on a flight - and it's FULL !!

That is because they have reduced so many flights a) frequency b) aircraft size.


User currently onlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8457 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3889 times:
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The last two single Latin Amerian airlines, Copa merges with AeroMexico. Or Copa merges with LAN, but Copa's single days are over, the Panama hub is just to wonderful to be part of a small airline.

User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3775 times:

Quoting A388 (Reply 17):
Asia in my opinion will remain as it is as I don't see any of the big players there wanting to consolidate (due to pride issues).

Most of the major East Asian airlines have top notch seats, lounges, and service. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan each have 2 large carriers, yet none of them are focused on the race-to-the-bottom like the jaded US aviation industry wants you to believe is inevitable.

As an example - all of them refuse to move to 3-4-3 on their 777s despite oil being so high. They're not stupid at math, but they know there's a fine line between lowering CASM and turning themselves into a long-haul Ryanair.

As long as you're service focused and making money, there's no pressing need to consolidate.


User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1992 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (2 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3758 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 22):
Or Copa merges with LAN

I don't see LAN buying any airline ( like Copa or Pluna ) in the foreseeable future, they are focused in the LATAM project and IMHO they are not interested in new adventures until the integration with JJ is totally consolidated.

Rgds.

G.



80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
25 mogandoCI : Even if they're totally done with JJ, I don't think Pluna is an attractive partner at all. As for Copa, I thought it started as a central American ar
26 civetfive : well that, and the fact that LH indicated LX was outperforming the rest of the network for good parts of the last few years. Both MUC and ZRH are sim
27 planemaker : Lot's of good points presented and I would venture along the lines that there will be ongoing consolidation in fits and starts until the airline indus
28 usdcaguy : I have a few ideas for fun, almost all in threes: - ME and CY, with CY running the show. ME would become an integral part of an EU carrier, which coul
29 Viscount724 : Your impression of FRA isn't confirmed by recent statistics. For example, total passenger traffic at FRA for the month of May 2012 was up 1.4% over t
30 kordcj : What about the possibility of NH/OZ? A NZ/VA might be good too but I'm not sure their governments would allow such a venture. Maybe they could do some
31 TWA772LR : Copa started as an independant airline. Then when Bethune took over CO, CO pumped lots of cash into Copa to make it what it is to day. I could see Co
32 aerorobnz : Aircraft movements at FRA dropped by 0.4 percent for the same period. fewer flights that are fuller in other words. So my impression is quite correct
33 Gonzalo : Pluna is trying to survive for the next 15,20 or 30 months.....in 15 years could be a giant ( if they do very big changes and got a good share of Luc
34 Rara : Your impression is quite wrong. Nearly all German airports operate at record numbers, i.e. never in history have they handled so many flights and pas
35 Viscount724 : A drop of 0.4% in movements at FRA equates to roughly 3 takeoffs and 3 landings a day. I can't believe that such a tiny change would be "very evident
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