FlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 6519 posts, RR: 11 Reply 1, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4388 times:
Personally, I think it's anybody's ballgame at this point. We already know (as had been announced with PNCL's BK) that 9E is getting out the 50 seater game. DL holds the lease on almost all their 200s. However, with them being among the youngest in the fleet I think they will be re-allocated to other carriers as their own fleet is brought down. One of the biggest gains is that DL will get out of a massive engine overhaul expense that will be coming up on many of the earlier model CR2s. The Pinnacle 200s aren't victim to this as they're much, much younger.
With that being said it will come down to who can fly the CR9s/175s at a competitive rate. I really don't know what to say about Comair. My gut is telling me that after it's all said and done they will still be around operating a modest fleet of CR2s, CR7s, and CR9s. The target fleet number is 44 which is what DL set back in 2010.
EV and OO will be loosing big-time as they obviously have a massive fleet of CR2s. Many 10+ years old. On the EV side, most of the frames with registrations ending in AS are pretty old. The newer ones have registrations ending in EV and BR (ACA's a/c they lost when DL pulled their contract).
Thought about it tonight but I think RP's modest fleet of ERJs will also survive. When it's all said and done DL will still have some 166 50 seaters so in the end I think we will see a big shake up at OO and EV (we already know 9E will be an all CR9 operator).
So to recap I think the 9E frames will by and large survive albeit flying with another carrier as they're very young and are not due for the engine overhauls being talked about. RP will still be RP and the 20 some-odd ERJs will be included in the 166 that are left. A huge part of EV and OO's fleet (CR2s) will be cut. Only about 70 large RJs to be gained with the loss of nearly 200 50 seaters and the 70 can go to anyone so personally I think this will hurt ExpressJet and SkyWest the most.
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FL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1499 posts, RR: 12 Reply 2, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4359 times:
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 1): We already know (as had been announced with PNCL's BK) that 9E is getting out the 50 seater game.
When was that ever announced? The 9E group is ending all prop flying and losing the 16 CR9s DL leased them pre-merger but I don't believe anything has ever been realeased publicly about reducing 50 seaters even though it looks like that may end up happening.
FL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1499 posts, RR: 12 Reply 3, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4338 times:
Quoting FL787 (Reply 2): and losing the 16 CR9s DL leased them pre-merger
Just realized I have this backwards. 9E is currently flying 57 CR9s for DL and they are getting rid of the 16 that they own while continuing to fly the 41 they lease from DL.
Mir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 19708 posts, RR: 56 Reply 4, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4302 times:
Delta can't just void its contracts with OO and EV, so those 200s will have to stick around for a bit. Though perhaps they could work out a deal to replace 200s with 700s or 900s so long as it's those carriers that get the flying.
-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
FlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 6519 posts, RR: 11 Reply 5, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 4268 times:
Quoting FL787 (Reply 3): Just realized I have this backwards. 9E is currently flying 57 CR9s for DL and they are getting rid of the 16 that they own while continuing to fly the 41 they lease from DL.
You're right I apologize I don't know where I got the all large RJs thing from. The new contract they signed back in April calls for an end to the Atlanta based CR9 flying (16 RJs owned by 9E) and the 41 former XJ/F8 CR9s will soldier on along with the 120+ CR2s.
The question is what will happen to the flying. Wonder who will pick up the contract. I'm not sure if OO/EV has cash on hand right now to pick up more CR9s to fill the gap. The question still remains as to what will Pinnacle do with the frames and how DL will handle the flying. The draw-down is suppose to start next year and completely end by May.
Quoting Mir (Reply 4): Delta can't just void its contracts with OO and EV, so those 200s will have to stick around for a bit. Though perhaps they could work out a deal to replace 200s with 700s or 900s so long as it's those carriers that get the flying.
Never said they will void the contract. Also said we don't know who's CR2s will be parked but it's apparent to me - at least the part about DL touting savings of $500M off the new contract based off the fact that they won't have to deal with the engine overhauls - tells me that the older frames will be leaving. 9E's fleet really does not fall in this category. A very small portion but most of the frames are pretty new.
What i'm saying is that OO/EV/DL will be doing a lot of contract RE-negotiating.
CAM2:"Lightning coming out of that one." CAM1: "What?"
toltommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3220 posts, RR: 4 Reply 6, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 3961 times:
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 5): What i'm saying is that OO/EV/DL will be doing a lot of contract RE-negotiating.
Only, if OO/EV wishes to do so. They entered into a new contract when Skywest purchased ASA. They don't need to do anything right now. If what DL offers now is better long term, they'll listen.
Quoting Mir (Reply 4): Delta can't just void its contracts with OO and EV, so those 200s will have to stick around for a bit.
Doesn't OO own most of the Skywest -200 fleet? Is EV's leased from DL or owned?
Quoting FL787 (Reply 2): The 9E group is ending all prop flying and losing the 16 CR9s DL leased them pre-merger but I don't believe anything has ever been realeased publicly about reducing 50 seaters even though it looks like that may end up happening.
Based on what? If 9E can get costs in like via the bankruptcy process, there won't be a need to gut the airline. DL provided DIP financing to 9E for the bankruptcy. DL will likely wind up owning the airline when its all said and done. They'll tear the airline down and rebuild it in order to sell it off again. There's still a need for some 50 seat flying, obviously not as much as there once was. All things considered they'll want to get a return on their investment in Pinnacle. The non-wholly owneds need to worry more.
toltommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3220 posts, RR: 4 Reply 8, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3789 times:
Quoting flyby519 (Reply 7):
How about G7(Gojets) getting big increases with the TA, possible?
They've got a big order of Mitsubishi jets on the books, and Delta has a need for more large regionals. I'd say its possible.
KarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2927 posts, RR: 9 Reply 9, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3756 times:
mayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 9188 posts, RR: 14 Reply 10, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3491 times:
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 5):
What i'm saying is that OO/EV/DL will be doing a lot of contract RE-negotiating.
I'm not real clear on this, but I wondered when OO's last contract with DL was up? It seems the last one I heard of was a 10 year contract and that's while I was still working (pre 2005).
I wondered about some of the regional flying out of SLC. If the CR200 flying is reduced, would DL take over some of those routes with the 717s (and would it be able to handle the hot & high at those airports) or would they leave it to the CR7s and CR9s?
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
mayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 9188 posts, RR: 14 Reply 12, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3331 times:
Quoting nwaesc (Reply 11): So far all I've heard indicates the 717 flying will be out of MSP/DTW/ATL/LGA, but take that with the appropriate fist full of salt...
So, much of the CR200 flying would be replaced by CR7s and CR9s, at least out of SLC?
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
DeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 8580 posts, RR: 8 Reply 13, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3272 times:
Quoting mayor (Reply 10):
I'm not real clear on this, but I wondered when OO's last contract with DL was up? It seems the last one I heard of was a 10 year contract and that's while I was still working (pre 2005).
I think, but am not sure, the OO contract was reworked when OO bought EV. Not sure on this though.
Quoting mayor (Reply 12):
So, much of the CR200 flying would be replaced by CR7s and CR9s, at least out of SLC?
More than likely. Some shifting could be done to get more 319s into SLC also.
"Oh look at the sUGAr falling out of the sky! Look at the sUGAr falling out of the sky!" LM 1922-2011 Go Dawgs! G.A.T.A.
toltommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3220 posts, RR: 4 Reply 14, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3237 times:
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 13): I think, but am not sure, the OO contract was reworked when OO bought EV. Not sure on this though.
Correct. According to the press release put out by Skywest announcing the purchase, they entered into contracts valid until 2020. Details of how much and what kind of flying were not mentioned.
FlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 6519 posts, RR: 11 Reply 15, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3237 times:
Quoting nwaesc (Reply 11): I think the ERJ's are gone. No empirical evidence to back that up, just a hunch/opinion.
Just last year DL extended the contract on the RP 145s; specifically to fund the NE because as it was they were severely underutilized but now with the LGA ramp up things are a bit different. I could be wrong through.
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DeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 8580 posts, RR: 8 Reply 16, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3012 times:
Mir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 19708 posts, RR: 56 Reply 17, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2692 times:
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 5): I don't know where I got the all large RJs thing from.
Probably from the "this is the strategy I'd take if I wanted to save the airline" idea. I had doubts about whether it was really a wise idea for them to put all their eggs in the 50-seat basket, just on economics alone. And now with this...I can't see how Pinnacle comes out of this intact. Which is a real shame.
apodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3640 posts, RR: 6 Reply 18, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1939 times:
DL may have some leverage with OO here though. IIRC DL just reduced the FFD compensation it pays OO using a clause in the contract about most expensive or something like that, and OO has taken a hit to their balance sheet as a result of DL. Between the Expressjet merger and the DL reduction in payments, OO has to be looking for a way to ease the burden to their balance sheet. OO is in a catch 22 here as a result. If they maintain the status quo with their pilots getting more senior they are going to need more favorable terms with DL to be profitable, but the only way DL is going to give them better terms is if they replace their 200's with 700/900's, leaving them on the hook for leases on 200's. Even if OO has a long term deal with DL, they are not in a good position here at all, and this extends to EV.
I think what DL would ideally like to do is keep as many of the Pinnacle CRJ-200's flying since they are fairly young, and try to get their other partners to drop their 200's. With DL owning most of the 200's in question, they have three options with flying for them. One is to keep them at Pinnacle, and while I feel like they would like to keep a lot of them there, the bankruptcy as well as avoiding an eggs in one basket scenario will mean that they won't all be staying there. Option 2 is Expressjet/Skywest, but with all the leases that OO has on those, they are still on the hook for all of those, and it would be a lot easier to fly those. Option 3 is Comair, and while I feel DL would rather find a way to shut down Comair, they may have to add flying there. I just don't see Comair as a survivor in this.
Here is the big legal question in play here. Which contract has priority in this situation, the pilots contract with scope, or the regional contract, because there is a clear conflict of interest here.
Mir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 19708 posts, RR: 56 Reply 19, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1714 times:
Quoting apodino (Reply 18): Here is the big legal question in play here. Which contract has priority in this situation, the pilots contract with scope, or the regional contract, because there is a clear conflict of interest here.
I'd say the regional contract takes precedence, since it was there first, but I'm no legal expert.
-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
FlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 6519 posts, RR: 11 Reply 20, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1664 times:
Quoting apodino (Reply 18): Here is the big legal question in play here. Which contract has priority in this situation, the pilots contract with scope, or the regional contract, because there is a clear conflict of interest here.
Quoting Mir (Reply 19): I'd say the regional contract takes precedence, since it was there first, but I'm no legal expert.
-Mir
I wouldn't be so sure. Legalities aside, the 50 seater flying WILL draw down over the next 3 years starting next year. The cap has been reduced from 366 to 166 so they will be in direct violation of the DL mainline scope clause. Now, what that means is DL may be on the hook to cover the leases or a myriad of other penalties as it has to do with OO/EV. What they do with their pilots though, IDK. It may still be a better deal for DL to park the frames and pay the leases but not have to cover the upcoming engine overhauls or deal with the woefully dreadful CASM that comes along with the CR2/145.
The mainline contract has precedence. why do I saw that? Because this is DL's deal it's not like they were forced into reducing the 50 seater cap. This is what they wanted to apparently the DALPA contract has priority; at least as far as Delta is concerned. How they deal with the excess frames is the question. It isn't a question of 'if'. It will happen.
CAM2:"Lightning coming out of that one." CAM1: "What?"
DeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 8580 posts, RR: 8 Reply 21, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 1590 times:
Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 20): The cap has been reduced from 366 to 166 so they will be in direct violation of the DL mainline scope clause
My understand of the PWA scope is nothing *has* to change.
Delta can only add 76 seaters if 50s seaters are reduced and 717s start hitting the line. (and there is a ratio for all of this)
So the 76 seaters don't become an issue till Delta gets an agreement in place for 717s and the 50s to leave and then it happens. Once these two things happen then Delta can add 76 seaters.
Now my understanding is once the 76 seaters are added nothing of the above matters anymore(expect I do think the 50 seaters do have a cap now. useless, but a cap none the less) So the PWA also has a minimum mainline to DCI pilot block hour ratio in the ball park of 60 to 40. So if Delta wants to cut flying DCI has to cut flying (though it does seem like the plan going forward would allow Delta to park a good bit of a t-tail fleet without dumping more DCI because of the large dump of CRJs. At least the numbers seem to work out that way.) But once everything plays out for DCI to grow mainline must grow, for Delta to get smaller DCI must get smaller.
Anyways, for the short part. I don't believe the 50 seat cap comes into play till the CRJs are parked and the 717s show up. The PWA gives the time for a draw down. Now If OO does play hard ball, Delta does have a more costly way out. (which is good for the pilots if it were to go arbitration)
"Oh look at the sUGAr falling out of the sky! Look at the sUGAr falling out of the sky!" LM 1922-2011 Go Dawgs! G.A.T.A.
Goldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5440 posts, RR: 12 Reply 22, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1541 times:
Quoting mayor (Reply 10): I wondered about some of the regional flying out of SLC. If the CR200 flying is reduced, would DL take over some of those routes with the 717s (and would it be able to handle the hot & high at those airports) or would they leave it to the CR7s and CR9s?
I'm not sure why people have this pre-conceived notion that if you stick in a plane that's 2.5 times larger (Or more!) than the current type that people will just magically show up and fill it to capacity.
Quoting apodino (Reply 18): IIRC DL just reduced the FFD compensation it pays OO using a clause in the contract about most expensive or something like that, and OO has taken a hit to their balance sheet as a result of DL.
While the DL rate reduction does play a part into the revenue stream, it's not the reason the last few quarters have seen red. In fact, you've been preaching doom, gloom, and overall end-of-the-world scenarios ever since the first one posted. While a string of red quarters does look bad, it's really not as bad as you make it out to be. Aside from the international investments, engine overhauls have been the worst offender these past few quarters. The last few were completed this quarter. With those done, and the selling of TRIP stock, the rest of the year, and the year overall is expected to be in the black.
[Edited 2012-07-02 02:27:42]
[Edited 2012-07-02 02:55:08]
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slcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2454 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1530 times:
I think SLC will see CR2s for along time. There is a gate space issue until the new terminals are built delta cant really just replace those flights with CR9s or 319s. Plus alot of the western destinations are high fare and low numbers so the CR2S work much better than maybe at alot of the other hubs.
mayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 9188 posts, RR: 14 Reply 24, posted (10 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 1299 times:
Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 22): I'm not sure why people have this pre-conceived notion that if you stick in a plane that's 2.5 times larger (Or more!) than the current type that people will just magically show up and fill it to capacity.
And I don't. I asked because if the CR200 fleet is reduced, that will affect SLC as much as any station, if not more. It's apparent that many of the OO employees at SLC have those same "pre-conceived" notions you mention as my daughter (who is a F/A for OO) says many of them are worried about what will happen. They've been worried since DL made the announcement about the 717s and the TA. I'm sure their worries haven't lessened since the TA was ratified.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
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