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AA/US Merger Effects On DCA?  
User currently offlineSWALUV From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 109 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 7106 times:

Hi ,

Sorry If this has been posted already!

The topic of AA/US merging has been discussed alot around here, with that being said I wouldn't like this topic to turn into a debate over which airline is better rather a discussion about the effect of the merger on DCA.

With US owning most of the slots and US already having a significant present there, I have a few questions?

-Will US/AA be forced to give up slot's at DCA due to the large presence from both airlines.
-Will we see large, 757, 767 service from DCA to hub cities?
-Will DCA be upgraded to a hub or will they slowly stop routes?
-Will any-other hubs be downgraded due to the close proximitey of CLT,DCA,PHL,JFK,LGA( as it is a focus city as I remember)
-Will DCA lose flights to other hubs?

Sorry for all the questions!!  

37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6572 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6965 times:

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
-Will US/AA be forced to give up slot's at DCA due to the large presence from both airlines

Probably a small number of slots would have to be divested. If the DL slot swap required divestiture, I can't see how the AA would not seeing as the combined carrier would control nearly 70% of all slots at DCA.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
-Will we see large, 757, 767 service from DCA to hub cities?

757 yes. 767 no.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
-Will DCA be upgraded to a hub or will they slowly stop routes?

DCA is already pretty much a hub for US especially after the slot swap with DL. Most of the new routes that were added rely on a decent number of connections as the O+D alone isn't enough.

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
-Will DCA lose flights to other hubs?

Other than the small number of flights divested, I doubt DCA would lose much.


User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6791 times:

DCA will have no effect on CLT. CLT will be fine

User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7481 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 6560 times:

I don't see DCA having much of an effect on PHL or CLT. They all serve different functions.


Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 754 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 6473 times:

Would we see AA add some international out of IAD to support their large FF and business base?? I'm thinking London and S. America.

User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4036 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 6362 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 1):
Probably a small number of slots would have to be divested. If the DL slot swap required divestiture, I can't see how the AA would not seeing as the combined carrier would control nearly 70% of all slots at DCA.

Does AA have as many slots total as the number DL gave up? I guess the general math wouldn't be too hard to guesstimate.

Quoting seatback (Reply 4):
Would we see AA add some international out of IAD to support their large FF and business base?? I'm thinking London and S. America.

Highly doubt it. More likely to streamline connections from DCA to the international hubs to connect to existing flights.


User currently offlineSeptember11 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3623 posts, RR: 21
Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 6317 times:

The future of DCA talk is always intriguing. As I stated in other thread, I feel American Airlines and US Airways merger is unlikely. But, for fun, here is my "what if" question: should American Airlines and US Airways merge, what will happen to the name of US Airways Shuttle? Will the name be changed to American Airlines Shuttle (or "American Shuttle")?


Airliners.net of the Future
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8249 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6005 times:
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Quoting seatback (Reply 4):
Would we see AA add some international out of IAD to support their large FF and business base?? I'm thinking London and S. America.

United has MASSIVE international operation out of IAD including 4 flights daily to LHR and once daily to Sao Paulo. AS far as AA, its partne BA flies 2 or 3 times daily to LHR so that market is well covered. Virgin Atlantic flies daily to LHR too.


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2738 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 5906 times:

Whenever there is an airline merger, regulators will more then certainly look at operations at DCA, along with those at EWR, JFK, and LGA. At present, these are the so-called federal government slot-controlled airports, and therefore the potential of monopolistic conditions inherently exist.

IIRC, when UA/CO merged, since CO had such a dominant market share at EWR, the slots that UA brought into the merger there would have made CO that much more a monopolizer there, so UA gave up its slots there (I believe it was 18 or so?) and transferred them to WN. Afterwards, the feds approved the merger, on the basis that the merged UA/CO would not have unfairly gained at EWR.

So quite possibly in the event of an AA/US merger, the feds will be looking at DCA, and consider how a newly merged entity would effect monopolistic conditions there. Then more than likely, some divestiture would be required. Also to be considered are the special routes involved with DCA and since there are a few categories of those, each would be looked at individually and the outcome would be determined by regulations that are already in place.

Although not as restrictive, both JFK and LGA would also be reviewed by the feds, and again the outcome would be determined by regulations that are already in place.

As best that I know, I think that's the way it works. As for CLT and PHL, since these two aren't restricted as are DCA, JFK, and LGA, there would be no requirements by the fed here.

 


User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6432 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5697 times:

Quoting September11 (Reply 6):
The future of DCA talk is always intriguing. As I stated in other thread, I feel American Airlines and US Airways merger is unlikely. But, for fun, here is my "what if" question: should American Airlines and US Airways merge, what will happen to the name of US Airways Shuttle? Will the name be changed to American Airlines Shuttle (or "American Shuttle")?

Way back in the late 60's,AA used to operate hourly between BOS-LGA-DCA. It was called the Jet Express


User currently offlinedcaviation From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 195 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5691 times:

Quoting September11 (Reply 6):
what will happen to the name of US Airways Shuttle? Will the name be changed to American Airlines Shuttle (or "American Shuttle")?

This name cased to exist few years ago.


User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5334 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (2 years 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5657 times:

Regarding one specific route, I can tell you that there would be many AAdvantage folks in San Diego who would love to see the new US Airways nonstop between DCA and SAN become one of "their" flights!

bb


User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 767 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 5405 times:
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Quoting point2point (Reply 8):

As best that I know, I think that's the way it works. As for CLT and PHL, since these two aren't restricted as are DCA, JFK, and LGA, there would be no requirements by the fed here.

AA is #3 at JFK (behind B6,DL) and a not very close #2 at LGA. The addition of US slots at both of these airports would not alter AA's rankings and there should be no reason for the combined carrier to give up any slots.

Of course DCA is an entirely different story and there likely would be a significant number of slots that would have to be sold off (unless AA decides to do an additional slot swap with B6).

Quoting SWALUV (Thread starter):
-Will we see large, 757, 767 service from DCA to hub cities?

It's possible there may be 767 service on some hub routes, but from what I understand, none of the slots awarded beyond the perimeter are permitted to operate widebody service. That leaves MIA, ORD, DFW, PHL, JFK, CLT that could potentially see widebody service. Interestingly, DFW is the only hub served by both carriers out or DCA. Having said all that, I don't think it's likely that DCA will see anything larger than a 757/A321 from the combined carrier but if I had to choose one I'd bet on MIA because it's one of the largest hubs and the one with the least amount of overlap with the other hubs.


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2738 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 5346 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 12):
AA is #3 at JFK (behind B6,DL) and a not very close #2 at LGA. The addition of US slots at both of these airports would not alter AA's rankings and there should be no reason for the combined carrier to give up any slots.

My apologies here, but I'm unsure of what is being determined here? Earlier in the post, all I stated was that the Feds will consider EWR, LGA, JFK and DCA during their review. Appropriate action(s) will be determined, and any determination(s) could be that there may not be a reason to take any action(s) at any airport depending on the situation. Yet, I'm guessing that we're somehow in agreement here though, could this be correct?

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 12):
but from what I understand, none of the slots awarded beyond the perimeter are permitted to operate widebody service.

Is this correct? Is this just the last awards? Also a bit puzzled, I know that many times UA will have a 757 on a DEN-DCA route, and DEN is beyond the perimeter?


 


User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4036 posts, RR: 8
Reply 14, posted (2 years 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5241 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 13):
Is this correct? Is this just the last awards? Also a bit puzzled, I know that many times UA will have a 757 on a DEN-DCA route, and DEN is beyond the perimeter?

I think it's overall, not just the last bunch.

And the 757 is allowed, since it isn't a widebody.


User currently offlineelmothehobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (2 years 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5195 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 13):
Is this correct? Is this just the last awards? Also a bit puzzled, I know that many times UA will have a 757 on a DEN-DCA route, and DEN is beyond the perimeter?

United has a single beyond perimeter slot for Denver. The 757 isn't a widebody aircraft. If you're referring to 767s, United has never operated scheduled 767 service to DCA. Delta, IIRC, is the only passenger carrier to schedule widebody service to DCA in recent history - and that was only for Inauguration Weekend 2008.

Also, you may be thinking of LGA, where Denver falls outside of the perimeter, but was grandfathered in, allowing for regular scheduled service between LGA and DEN without perimeter exemptions.


User currently onlineusflyer msp From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2098 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5192 times:

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 14):
I think it's overall, not just the last bunch.

And the 757 is allowed, since it isn't a widebody.

There is no such restriction in the awards. The reality is that 767's can barely fly into DCA (in terms of runway length and gate space) and a 767 at MTOW for a transcon trip probably would not be able to safely takeoff at DCA (That is the whole reason why IAD was built!). Accordingly, no carrier has proposed using them in their application.

[Edited 2012-07-04 22:23:01]

User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5334 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (2 years 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 5068 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 12):
...from what I understand, none of the slots awarded beyond the perimeter are permitted to operate widebody service.

  

From the
ESTABLISHMENT OF SLOT EXEMPTION PROCEEDINGS
AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT
PURSUANT TO 49 U.S.C. § 41718
Docket DOT-OST-2012-0029

Quote:
FAA 2012, among other things, made several significant changes to laws regarding slot and slot exemptions at DCA, and we briefly summarize the most significant changes below. ...

Third, none of the FAA 2012 beyond-perimeter slot exemptions may be used to operate multi-aisle or widebody
aircraft.


bb


User currently offlinedcaviation From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 195 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 5036 times:

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 16):
The reality is that 767's can barely fly into DCA (in terms of runway length and gate space) and a 767 at MTOW for a transcon trip probably would not be able to safely takeoff at DCA (That is the whole reason why IAD was built!). Accordingly, no carrier has proposed using them in their application.

Runway is not the problem. Problem is with the taxiways and gate space. Thats why you have widebody restrictions at DCA.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3994 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (2 years 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 4878 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 3):

I don't see DCA having much of an effect on PHL or CLT. They all serve different functions.

How so? There is substantial traffic between NY/NJ/New England and the Carolinas/Florida/Georgia/Alabama and they can all connect in PHL/DCA/CLT.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1535 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (2 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4697 times:

Quoting dcaviation (Reply 18):
Runway is not the problem. Problem is with the taxiways and gate space. Thats why you have widebody restrictions at DCA.

  

There are a couple YouTube videos of the DL 763 turns in January 2009 shot by rampers, and you can tell that those 763s really gummed up the works on the ramp and taxiways. I've always dreamed of seeing more widebodies at DCA, but after I saw that video, it doesn't seem like such a good idea.


User currently offlinedcaviation From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 195 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4636 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 20):
There are a couple YouTube videos of the DL 763 turns in January 2009 shot by rampers

I have pictures of first DL 763 arrival into DCA. Also I have picture of about 50 rampers standing around it  


User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (2 years 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 4588 times:

I would guess 757s on DCA-ORD/DFW/MIA/CLT/PHX/LAX to start.

I wonder if they would try to start up routes like DCA-DEN or LAS?



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1535 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 4567 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 22):
I wonder if they would try to start up routes like DCA-DEN or LAS?

You mean like US48/49?      


User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4036 posts, RR: 8
Reply 24, posted (2 years 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 4564 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 22):
I wonder if they would try to start up routes like DCA-DEN or LAS?

US already flies DCA-LAS. DCA-DEN is beyond perimeter so it's possible in the future, if more beyond-perimeter slots are made available, the airline might try to make a run at DEN. I'm sure DCA-DEN can support two daily flights, but there are other deserving markets as well.


25 steex : I think DCA-DEN might be a tough sell for more flights, it's already at 4x daily, more than any other beyond-perimeter destination. As it is, dependi
26 chepos : In the event of a merger I hihly doubt a combined AA would be able to kepp DCA-PHX/LAS/SAN and LAX, some of those beyod perimeter routes would have to
27 HPRamper : Would the DOT really prefer to cut off service to deserving markets merely because they don't want one airline to be the one serving them? It would a
28 Sydscott : Not necessarily. In a merger situation where there isn't a "Purchaser" per se you might find that AA/US will be able to keep the beyond perimeter slo
29 Post contains images point2point : Thank you..... you are correct..... where is my thinking cap? Thank you....... Good point there, and I believe that that is also correct.
30 LHCVG : And with 3 of those flown by F9, there is both competition and LCC presence on the route to compete with the legacy carrier, so there really isn't mu
31 steex : This is what I was getting at - they don't allow beyond-perimeter exemptions to be transferred between certificates. That's why AA did not get TW's L
32 HPRamper : I would think the airline would work out a deal in which it gives up the LAS slot over giving up SAN (via relocation to LAX). Unless the powers that
33 steex : I agree, but I suspect if DOT announced they were taking the LAX exemption away, US would likely announce their switch to LAX and one of the applicat
34 LHCVG : I would have said so too, but from a couple dummy bookings I've done, it looks like the DCA-LAS flight often goes ~$400+, pretty much in line with th
35 capitalflyer : Yep, maybe all of AA's slots. Nope. 767s can't operate. I don't see 757 use increasing above where they are at currently They won't do either due to
36 us330 : The logical slots to divest would be the routes where AA and US compete--ie to DFW, RDU, BNA, ORD,
37 chepos : US does not fly from DCA to ORD. Regards, Chepos
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