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Why Wont Aer Lingus Restart US Westcoast  
User currently offlineirishair98 From Ireland, joined Dec 2011, 87 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8396 times:

why dont EI start west coast to SFO and LAX again by the looks of it demand is there but there not bothering till the A350's arrive but they could terminate the MAD - IAD route or not use the A330 for the malaga route


Next Flights: DUB-MAN, MAN-MCO, MCO-MAN, MAN-DUB, DUB-CFN,
49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinepoLOT From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 2123 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8340 times:

Quoting irishair98 (Thread starter):
why dont EI start west coast to SFO and LAX again by the looks of it demand is there but there not bothering till the A350's arrive but they could terminate the MAD - IAD route or not use the A330 for the malaga route

The MAD-IAD route is part of a joint venture with UA. EI probably can't terminate it before the contract ends without paying some hefty fees to them. And that is assuming that flight is unprofitable, which considering that is operating from a UA hub with a UA partnership is probably not an easy assumption to make.

[Edited 2012-07-07 21:00:49]

User currently offlinebestwestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7081 posts, RR: 57
Reply 2, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8315 times:

The Malaga route sits between an early east coast arrival and a later east coast departure from Dublin. This is an excellent use of an otherwise idle aircraft.

West Coast flying from Europe is an expensive exersize. In the boom times of Ireland this market failed to make money, and in the emerging post recession of Ireland and shaky California economy, now is not the time to relauch.

Perhaps when EI chooses an alliance partner for travel to Australasia this will add to the potential of this market and determine the gateway.



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7204 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8285 times:

Easily: Ireland is out of money. Can't afford to send their state-owned airline to an expensive airport like LAX or SFO.


One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlinephxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 882 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8269 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):

Only 25% is government owned. FR owns a lot of it too.


User currently offlineshamrock604 From Ireland, joined Sep 2007, 4161 posts, RR: 13
Reply 5, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8160 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Easily: Ireland is out of money. Can't afford to send their state-owned airline to an expensive airport like LAX or SFO

Um, not so easily, actually.

Aer Lingus is not a state airline. Only a 25% share of it is owned by the government, and that will be sold off shortly.

Besides, even if it was state owned and controlled, trying to say that a country which has the 4th highest GDP per capita in the European Union "cant afford" to send its airline to an airport is a ridiculous notion - more especially when the airline is in private hands anyway and is profitable.



Flown EI,FR,RE,EIR,VE,SI,TLA,BA,BE,BD,VX,MON,AF,YS,WX,KL,SK,LH,OK,OS,LX,IB,LTU,HLX,4U,SU,CO,DL,UA,AC,PR,MH,SQ,QF, EY, EK
User currently offlinelegacyins From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2054 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 8106 times:

EI contemplated a return to the West Coast last year but decided the pending losses were too great. There was a big push by the Bay Area business groups to establish a link between the Bay Area and Dublin. After this fell through, according to the article, they were to lobby UA.


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...nance/2011/0819/1224302695232.html



John@SFO
User currently offlineSchweigend From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 590 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 7998 times:

Quoting poLOT (Reply 1):
The MAD-IAD route is part of a joint venture with UA. EI probably can't terminate it before the contract ends without paying some hefty fees to them. And that is assuming that flight is unprofitable, which considering that is operating from a UA hub with a UA partnership is probably not an easy assumption to make.

When does that JV contract between UA and EI for the IAD-MAD service end? The flights seem to be pretty full, based upon spot checks of seat availability online. I guess they could either extend the co-operation, or United could do the route on its own metal.

It is interesting to me that Aer Lingus is operating their A330 on behalf of United to MAD, which is a OneWorld hub. Is EI permitted to sell seats on this flight and connect passengers at Madrid? I just tried to verify this myself, but for some reason the Aer Lingus website won't load.

Quoting legacyins (Reply 6):
EI contemplated a return to the West Coast last year but decided the pending losses were too great. There was a big push by the Bay Area business groups to establish a link between the Bay Area and Dublin. After this fell through, according to the article, they were to lobby UA.

Hmmm....

UA could possibly make DUB-SFO flights work using refurbished two-class 763s or new 788s. Perhaps not daily, or year-round, but I think it could be done!

Should EI bail on OneWorld and join Star?? It could happen --

 


User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3198 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 7960 times:

EI are not even in Oneworld.

User currently offlineSchweigend From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 590 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7846 times:

You are correct, I didn't remember that.

I can still see them joining Star, now that bmi is gone from that alliance, and even moving their wet-lease A330 from IAD-MAD to SFO-DUB! If UA and EI work together, the route could succeed.

Edit to add:

O&D DUB-SFO traffic aside, it seems to me that EI and UA could offer each other nice connections at both ends. UA to Hawaii, Australia, and the U.S. west coast, and EI to places in Ireland, the UK, and northern Europe.



[Edited 2012-07-08 00:48:08]

User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3198 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7782 times:

If the route was viable, why would United need Aer Lingus? Even in a stronger market like LHR-LAX/SFO, it's got seasonal cutbacks and even then it's hard to make good yields on when fuel is high, added to the fact much of the traffic flies one stop via an Eastern hub for less. DUB-LAZ was tricky in better days and Aer Lingus have neer sustained a profitable operation beyond the core JFK/BOS/ORD routes.

User currently offlineSchweigend From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 590 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7737 times:

I don't know -- maybe DUB-SFO can be viable only if UA and EI work together.

Onward connections at Dublin would help fill the plane, and pax entering the USA from a DUB flight would be pre-cleared for Customs and enjoy a more pleasant entry into the country, if the policy of clearance in Ireland for U.S.-bound pax holds.


User currently offlinerichardw From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 3745 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7574 times:

Not good aircraft utilisation with a small long haul fleet.

User currently onlineClassicLover From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 4626 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7507 times:

Quoting irishair98 (Thread starter):
why dont EI start west coast to SFO and LAX again

One assumes they make more money flying to JFK, BOS, ORD and MCO than they would flying to LAX or SFO. Otherwise they'd switch it in a moment!



I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 940 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6930 times:
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well let's not forget that only a few years back they were flying to LAX and SFO, and their loads were healthy. Even San Jose was being rumored back then

User currently offlinelax777lr From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6272 times:

All goes back to the bottom line of many threads: loads are very different than yields.

User currently offlineirishair98 From Ireland, joined Dec 2011, 87 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5899 times:

EI would get great loads but they could do a test run of the flight LAX 4x week and SFO 3x week , seen as EI are using there codeshare agreement with UA on the MAD - IAD route in return UA could do a DUB - SFO or DUB - LAX it could work but it would be better seeing the green shamrock on the west coast  


Next Flights: DUB-MAN, MAN-MCO, MCO-MAN, MAN-DUB, DUB-CFN,
User currently offlineEIDL From Ireland, joined Apr 2012, 413 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5833 times:

Quoting bestwestern (Reply 2):
Perhaps when EI chooses an alliance partner for travel to Australasia this will add to the potential of this market and determine the gateway.

They have CX and QF surely? Even if its only those airlines selling the tickets as is the case with all of their alliances - I'm still at a loss as to why they don't sell tickets for the KL, BA, CX and QF flights that they're perfectly willing to have tickets sold for them on!



If they take their entire A350 order *and* hold on to the newer A330s they will realistically have to look at West Coast and Canada again.


User currently offlineshamrock350 From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 6321 posts, RR: 14
Reply 18, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5744 times:

Aer Lingus had no problem filling the aircraft, LAX was always very strong load wise and I don't think SFO was bad either but as fuel started to creep up it became very difficult to remain profitable and that's before the recession even started. Business loads weren't great though so the yield just wasn't there when things got tough. Management at Aer Lingus stated the Irish market just wasn't willing to pay the fares required to make west coast profitable again, they expected the same type of fare they were used to on JFK, BOS and ORD.

Aer Lingus recently mentioned looking at expansion on transatlantic again, one new routes could be possible but it was East Coast only. It seems in the medium term west coast has been ruled out and there doesn't seem to be much movement from other airlines either.


User currently offlinestyles9002 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 526 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5695 times:

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 5):
a country which has the 4th highest GDP per capita in the European Union

another point in support of how GDP is becoming less and less relevant as a accurate measure of actual economic prosperity. Most of Ireland's GDP is accounted for by multinationals engaging in the 'double irish' accounting maneuver. A better metric is to look at GNP. While still not a great measure, it gives better insight into the Irish economy, which is dreadful at the moment and will be struggling for a while to come.



It is what it is.
User currently offlineshamrock604 From Ireland, joined Sep 2007, 4161 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5606 times:

Quoting Reply 19):
another point in support of how GDP is becoming less and less relevant as a accurate measure of actual economic prosperity. Most of Ireland's GDP is accounted for by multinationals engaging in the 'double irish' accounting maneuver. A better metric is to look at GNP. While still not a great measure, it gives better insight into the Irish economy, which is dreadful at the moment and will be struggling for a while to come.

GNP is still above EU average - anyway, this misses the rather silly point of "Ireland" not being able to send "its state airline" to the apparently uber expensive LAX because it doesnt have any money! lol



Flown EI,FR,RE,EIR,VE,SI,TLA,BA,BE,BD,VX,MON,AF,YS,WX,KL,SK,LH,OK,OS,LX,IB,LTU,HLX,4U,SU,CO,DL,UA,AC,PR,MH,SQ,QF, EY, EK
User currently offlineheysfo From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5560 times:

I always did enjoy seeing EI at SFO ... thought it was a good match.... DUB-SFO
I always enjoyed the Irish green at SFO, Always thought with the loads of Irish in the Bay Area it would make sense


User currently offlineshamrock604 From Ireland, joined Sep 2007, 4161 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5496 times:

Quoting shamrock350 (Reply 18):
Management at Aer Lingus stated the Irish market just wasn't willing to pay the fares required to make west coast profitable again, they expected the same type of fare they were used to on JFK, BOS and ORD.

This was a problem alright, but I think the situation may be different now. Fares on the US market have really increased - a few years ago, people buying advance economy fares from say Dublin to New York expected to pay maybe 300 euro in low season. You are lucky if the lowest available fare is 600 euro now, and the market is holding its own, in fact is back to growth again. People have been re-conditioned into expecting to pay higher fares again.

Business really wants this flight back (especially SFO), but if they want it so bad, they are going to have to put their money where their mouths are and buy J tickets. I really dont see EI moving on this unless they get a firm commitment from companies in the tech sector to buy up J class seats. They will fill the back no problem.



Flown EI,FR,RE,EIR,VE,SI,TLA,BA,BE,BD,VX,MON,AF,YS,WX,KL,SK,LH,OK,OS,LX,IB,LTU,HLX,4U,SU,CO,DL,UA,AC,PR,MH,SQ,QF, EY, EK
User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3198 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5431 times:

Quoting g500 (Reply 14):
well let's not forget that only a few years back they were flying to LAX and SFO, and their loads were healthy.

Let's not forget losses were unsustainable and so consequently, they were dropped. Europe is really forming around karge legacy carriers with healthy feed and a large base, that's not Aer Lingus. Some smaller nations do OK in a niche market like Finnair marketing the quickest way to Asia being through HEL, but Malev, LOT and Austrian amongst the second tier of former flag carriers can't build growth on long haul.


User currently offlinestyles9002 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 526 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5417 times:

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 20):
GNP is still above EU average

Another comparison that is not really useful since Ireland's cost of living is also high when compared to other EU nations.

Again, much as it with all economics, GDP/GNP are not all encompassing metrics and are often misapplied and misunderstood since they don't take into account any elements of leisure time or well-being, volunteer or charitable works or qualitative measure of 'happiness', however you choose to define such. It also includes spending on items we wish we didn't have to spend on (insurance, security, lawyers) if society wasn't as litigious or deceitful and which could probably be better spent elsewhere (idea taken from Bastiat and his 'broken window' fallacy.

Regardless, I don't think we will see any non-stop flights from the US West Coast to Ireland anytime soon, from either Irish or US airlines as there really isn't the year round demand to warrant it. Existing services can provide the necessary air links to get someone to and from easily. Beyond that, California is going to face a day of reckoning sooner than later as it eventually runs out of money.



It is what it is.
25 shamrock604 : LAX made a profit. Then SFO was started, but performed less well than anticipated. EI then dropped LAX to focus on SFO to prevent any cannibalising o
26 styles9002 : So it sounds like this was a management error in your estimation? If so, the fundamentals should still be there to support the service. Or, it is pro
27 Viscount724 : Ireland-Hawaii traiffic must be very small. And Ireland-Australia via SFO is at least 1,200 miles further than via Asia, but UA/EI would have to offe
28 shamrock604 : I'd expect EI are still a little hung up on SFO, and in their estimation, if anything is going to come back, its San Francisco. I'd be for bringing b
29 clydenairways : Why would you drop a very profitable run to Malaga to loose money on LAX/SFO. And as others have said, it fits between other transatlantic routes any
30 flylku : under what physical colors does the IAD MAD operate. Aer Lingus?
31 skipness1E : Weren't the yields pretty poor? I don't recall it being year round daily either? Even LHR-LAX isn't a high frequency service.
32 shamrock604 : No, it was never a daily route with the exception of one summer season just prior to open skies being signed (when EI had the aircraft in expectation
33 by738 : It was year round and daily from 2007 prior that was 5 weekly
34 shamrock604 : The route was always year round - just not daily (except for that time in 2007 that you mentioned above.)
35 miaintl : Does anyone see Aer Lingus ever starting DUB-MIA in the near future? It seems to me that they can cut the MCO route and replace it with MIA which is m
36 irishair98 : im just after looking up the passenger load for MCO on EI's website and it looks 3/4 and thats in the off season . MCO would get mostly lesiure trave
37 irishair98 : EI has decieded to slash the amount of flights on the DUB - BOS route from 11 per week to 7 per week freeing up th e A330's EI could operate a new sea
38 IrishAyes : What makes you so confident that a year-round DUBMIA flight is more high-yielding than DUBMCO in high season? KL couldn't even make MIA work.
39 jfk777 : United leases the plane from Aer Lingus, EI gets their fees and its UA's job to sell tickets and pays for the fuel. EI should be making a decent retu
40 irishair98 : would it not make more sense for UA just to use there own metal on the MAD - IAD route i know its great for EI but would it not be better for UA ?
41 B747forever : So you dont think that 8 daily flights each way is high frequency service?
42 irishair98 : DUB - LAX was a high frequency but the fuel costs were to high from the economic downturn.
43 ein105 : I assume that you mean that from Nov the DUB-BOS schedule reduces? This is done every year, and although it frees up a 330, there is nowhere to fly t
44 skipness1E : OK good point I made that as clear as mud, I mean more along the lines that each airline drops to a single frequency in winter, unlike say JFK where
45 irishair98 : if DUB - LAX was never a high frequency why did they keep the route and what about SFO ?
46 kaitak744 : The only flight that is dropped from time to time is the 3rd daily BA flight, and that has even survived through some recent winters. AA, UA, NZ, and
47 legacyins : They dropped the LAX route within the year after the new air treaty service was granted. There are those who will argue that SFO was their original i
48 ein105 : High frequency means that the route is operated a number of times per day. LAX was only daily for a few months. If you meant that LAX was high yeild,
49 skipness1E : Actually the VS023 / 024 is dropped frequently across the winter season, it seems to operate ab out 4-5 weekly in some months and the remainder of th
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