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UA Growth Inc Williston , Kelowna & Thunder Bay  
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3510 times:

Several new UA routes announced in a press release today:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/united...nal-domestic-routes-145800889.html

SFO to Taipei and Paris
ORD to Monterry MX, Thunder Bay ON, Nassau, Jackson MS, and winter holiday Anchorage nonstops
LAX to Kelowna BC
DEN to Williston
IAD to San Salvador

Some of these have been out prior to today or are not 100% new (like ORD-ANC). But to me the most interesting are the two new Canadian markets and Williston.

Thunder Bay lost MSP service a few years ago and has had no direct US link for quite some time. Interested to see how this will work.

Kelowna has a lot of tourism (both summer and winter) but I'm a tad surprised that it's being linked to LAX as opposed to SFO which could funnel people both from the LA basin and the bay area.

Williston brings a question of Great Lakes' fate. Great Lakes (ZK) has been the only carrier to Williston for many years, and has the petro economy has boomed air traffic has increased heavily. Not all that long ago Williston had 3 flights to Denver with an intermediate stop, but now they have 4x/day nonstop with the EM2, plus two new 1-stop flights to MSP. ZK code shares with United and Frontier to Williston, but now that RJ's are heading up there I would guess ZK is out of luck.

The best shot at making money with RJ's is in high-fare markets, and places like Thunder Bay, Williston, and Kelowna seem to fit the bill.

21 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3151 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3472 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Kelowna has a lot of tourism (both summer and winter) but I'm a tad surprised that it's being linked to LAX as opposed to SFO which could funnel people both from the LA basin and the bay area.

That's interesting. YLK is a cool place. Silver Star and the adjacent Sovereign Lakes is, by far, the best Nordic skiing in the western hemisphere IMHO. That's not to mention all the wineries, bike trails and other Summer activities. I'm surprised that more airlines don't fly into YLK - like DL to SLC or WS or AC to U.S. destinations. AS/QX does SEA 3-4 times/day in which you often spend longer getting through SEA Customs then the flight itself takes.

Maybe this is the cue for AS to start YLK-SFO in a Q400 or even 73G seasonally.


User currently offlineNorthStarDC4M From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 36
Reply 2, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3432 times:
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Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Thunder Bay lost MSP service a few years ago and has had no direct US link for quite some time. Interested to see how this will work.

Very interesting...
I know when NWAirlink pulled out Thunder Bay tried and tried to get either UAEx or AA/AE to start ORD services. They even courted Midwest to MKE. Interesting that UAEx have picked it up now... any word on frequencies?

Kelowna ( YLW, YLK is Lake Simcoe Regional... now if it's the one getting UA service from SFO stop the presses!) from LAX is also a surprise. Wonder why they didn't do SFO for connections instead?

[Edited 2012-07-10 08:40:37]

[Edited 2012-07-10 08:42:03]


Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23148 posts, RR: 20
Reply 3, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3411 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Thunder Bay lost MSP service a few years ago and has had no direct US link for quite some time. Interested to see how this will work.

Are the dynamics at all similar to YXU, which OO has flown for a few years now? That was another longtime NW market where OO to ORD now seems to be doing all right.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineNorthStarDC4M From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 36
Reply 4, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3384 times:
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Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 3):
Are the dynamics at all similar to OO has flown for a few years now? That was another longtime NW market where OO to ORD now seems to be doing all right.

Well YXU, but is also something of a regional hub for NW Ontario, however the biggest difference:
YYZ) and less than 3 from a 2nd (DTW), both on Expressways most of the way
MSP, more than that from YWG, both on twisty 2 lane roads at least half the way.

Put another way, London-Chicago is about the same drive time wise as Tbay-Twin Cities

[Edited 2012-07-10 08:47:05]


Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3208 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Williston brings a question of Great Lakes' fate. Great Lakes (ZK) has been the only carrier to Williston for many years, and has the petro economy has boomed air traffic has increased heavily. Not all that long ago Williston had 3 flights to Denver with an intermediate stop, but now they have 4x/day nonstop with the EM2, plus two new 1-stop flights to MSP. ZK code shares with United and Frontier to Williston, but now that RJ's are heading up there I would guess ZK is out of luck.

Williston needs better service than ZK can provide. I wonder if Williston was such a cash cow for ZK, it could threaten the entire viability of the airline? I doubt it but it will take a chunk out of them. Next for UA should be Dickinson-DEN.


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3171 times:

A quick check of the current ISN schedule looks like ZK uses ISN as a bridge between MSP and DEN.

User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2887 posts, RR: 31
Reply 7, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2919 times:

WOW! All 5 of the PMUA hubs have something to be excited about!

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
SFO to Taipei and Paris

Nice to see both of these long haul services returning. It was hard for PMUA to make routes like these work before, given that the airline only utilized 4 class (F/J/Y+/Y) aircraft on all intercontinental/long haul sectors. I'm not at all surprised to see the higher density freshly reconfigured 763 (J/Y+/Y) going on to the SFO-CDG route. I suppose IAH's recent loss of nonstop service to CDG turned out to be SFO's gain? Wouldn't it be funny if UA relaunched LAX-CDG or even added DEN-CDG, without restoring IAH-CDG, just to make it clear to Houston how upset they are over the whole WN/HOU/FIS thing.

As for nonstop SFO-TPE, this is I believe their third or perhaps even fourth try at this route within the past decade. As I understand, TPE tends to be lower yielding than many of its East Asian peers, so I wonder if the use of the 4 class sUA 777 - essentially the exact same bird they were using [unsuccessfully] a few years ago - may be a temporary move, until they can use what is probably a much more appropriate higher density sCO 777. I expected this route to come back, but not on an sUA 4 class aircraft. I assume this means UA will be ending NRT-TPE, which begs the question, what happens to that NRT slot? Given that DEN-NRT starts a week and a half before SFO-TPE, I doubt they are funding the new DEN route with the now unnecessary TPE slot. Perhaps they are interested in adding a new intra-Asia tag? I have been wondering if UA intends to link MNL to more than just GUM, from which you need to fly to NRT or HNL just to reach a major UA hub, and then perhaps connect for a THIRD time if you are trying to get someplace like ATL, BOS, LAS, SAN, etc. Maybe we could see NRT-MNL come to fruition, or they could always try to start CAN from NRT (they could just use a small sCO 738) before a dedicated 777 service from SFO. Then again, perhaps SFO-CAN is exactly the type of route that UA could open up with the higher density sCO 777 out of SFO. Perhaps we could also see a resumption of SFO-NGO? They already have staff at NGO, unlike before it's now just a matter of connecting the dots!

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
ORD to Monterry MX, Thunder Bay ON, Nassau, Jackson MS, and winter holiday Anchorage nonstops

Finally some growth for the new UA at ORD! Other than that knee-jerk reaction to WN dropping all service to SRQ, of course  . I thought UA already served ORD-JAN, but now I see that JAN only has IAH service - did PMUA not serve JAN at all? I am curious as to the frequency of the route, as it is not listed. In any case, despite the notorious performance of ORD-Deep South routes in the recent past, I should think UA could fill the service with the help of PMCO FFers in the central Mississippi area that don't want to backtrack through Houston when headed to the Midwest, Northeast, Europe, etc.

The wintertime ORD-ANC flights are very interesting - I wonder if this could be a precursor to nonstop year-round ORD-ANC flights? I believe this new UA already offers year-round service to ANC via SEA and the DEN hub, correct?

ORD-NAS is operating at such a low frequency that I can't see how UA wouldn't be able to fill the flights. I wonder if they will also resume IAD-NAS, which was recently flown by mainline aircraft, albeit briefly.

ORD-YQT is certainly the most interesting route here. UA seems to do extremely well to Canada, I'm amazed that they keep finding new markets to add! They also don't seem to have any issues making small Upper Midwest markets work from their massive ORD hub, even those that weren't working from MSP/DTW.

And then there is ORD-MTY. I was wondering when we might see this new airline link ORD with more than just MEX and the beach markets, now that they have PMCO's incredibly strong Mexican network at their disposal. I suppose UA is undeterred by the abrupt failure of VB on the MDW-MTY route and Y4's lack of interest in MDW-MTY, although AM did find reason to add ORD-MTY recently. Hopefully this does better than AA's very short-lived ORD-MTY experiment though!

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
LAX to Kelowna BC

WOW! I expected to see UA add more transborder UAX flights from LAX, but I figured they would be headed south of the border, not north of it! I suppose UA has a knack for linking LAX with those small, posh mountain towns (JAC, BZN, HDN, MTJ, etc.) so this isn't any huge surprise. Still, I'm waiting to see UA try to do much more in the LAX-Mexico realm...

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
DEN to Williston

Capitalizing on the oil boom, no doubt. More growth for the DEN hub, though, which is always great to see. I'm sure they'll make a killing on this one!

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
IAD to San Salvador

Interesting, I didn't realize IAD was in need of DAILY 738 service to SAL! Then again, I suppose with the help of TACA they can make it work.

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Some of these have been out prior to today or are not 100% new (like ORD-ANC).

True, but this is the first time UA has ever tried the ORD-ANC route outside of peak season (May-September). Meanwhile, AS has been serving ORD nonstop from ANC year-round for years. Clearly, there must be some considerable year-round O&D between Chicago and Alaska.

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):

Thunder Bay lost MSP service a few years ago and has had no direct US link for quite some time. Interested to see how this will work.

ORD does offer far greater connectivity, though. And I daresay as a larger, more distant market it probably also has higher O&D. Also, I think DL's withdrawal had more to do with the rapid retirement of the Saab 340 type and inability to backfill everything with 50 seat RJ capacity than the performance of the Thunder Bay market in and of itself. UA has pulled off all kinds of surprisingly small stuff from ORD, I don't expect this to be any different.

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Kelowna has a lot of tourism (both summer and winter) but I'm a tad surprised that it's being linked to LAX as opposed to SFO which could funnel people both from the LA basin and the bay area.

True, but LAX probably has higher O&D. Most Angelenos in the know try to avoid connecting through SFO, given all of the fog/ATC issues there. They would probably be more likely to connect through SEA or YVR than take that option. If LAX-YLW does well, I would not be surprised to see a SFO-YLW service too.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Reply 8, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2839 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 5):
Williston needs better service than ZK can provide. I wonder if Williston was such a cash cow for ZK, it could threaten the entire viability of the airline?

Williston is one of the few non-EAS markets Great Lakes flies, and it would seem that if they can make money anyplace, it's Williston.

Great Lakes boardings have mushroomed in recent years at ISN:

2006 123/week
2008 230/week
2010 311/week
2011 515/week
2012 644/week through March

For what it's worth, Dickinson is boarding about 475 pax per week these days too. It was about 103/week2006.

It does make you wonder what sort of blow this will be to ZK. Not sure if the Williston-Minneapolis flights (which stop in Thief River Falls) are successful enough to keep the ball rolling for ZK in ISN. IIRC Dickinson is an EAS subsidy market. Right now if someone else came in, Great Lakes would still be paid to (and required to) fly there. But when the tw-year EAS contract comes up for renewal, it wouldn't be a surprise to find someone like Skywest coming it for low-subisdy or possibly no-subisidy service.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 6):
A quick check of the current ISN schedule looks like ZK uses ISN as a bridge between MSP and DEN.

The only EM2 flights at Minneapolis are the two flights to/from Williston (which stop in TVF on the way) so the same planes that come into MSP go back out. The rest of the MSP operation is operated by BE1, and they rotate those to and fron Denver via Pierre and Huron.

If Zk was to fully cut Williston, that would free up about 2 aircraft. That would go a long way in meeting the EAS awards they were given but don't have the resource to start to Brainard, International Falls, Ironwood and Rhinelander.


User currently offlinethreeifbyair From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2722 times:

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 7):
True, but this is the first time UA has ever tried the ORD-ANC route outside of peak season (May-September). Meanwhile, AS has been serving ORD nonstop from ANC year-round for years. Clearly, there must be some considerable year-round O&D between Chicago and Alaska.

I believe the AS service is going less than daily in the upcoming off-season.

I don't think this is driven by significant O&D - not like SEA, at least. ANC-ORD provides more direct routings to the East and South and offers many more connections than SEA does.


User currently offlineN353SK From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 825 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 2624 times:

I believe Lakes does maintenance on the Brasilia in Williston, so I wouldn't expect them to completely bail out in the near future.

User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Reply 11, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 2574 times:

Quoting N353SK (Reply 10):
I believe Lakes does maintenance on the Brasilia in Williston, so I wouldn't expect them to completely bail out in the near future.

That would make sense as three EM2 overnight in ISN.


User currently offline9252fly From Canada, joined Sep 2005, 1396 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 2494 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Kelowna has a lot of tourism (both summer and winter) but I'm a tad surprised that it's being linked to LAX as opposed to SFO which could funnel people both from the LA basin and the bay area.

I'm not the least bit surprised that UA is launching this route(what took you so long),the surprise LAX over SFO.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 7):
True, but LAX probably has higher O&D. Most Angelenos in the know try to avoid connecting through SFO, given all of the fog/ATC issues there. They would probably be more likely to connect through SEA or YVR than take that option. If LAX-YLW does well, I would not be surprised to see a SFO-YLW service too.

I would have to agree with you on SFO and it's fog/ATC issues. Your reasoning that LAX is higher yielding over SFO never occured to me.


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2764 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2313 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Williston brings a question of Great Lakes' fate. Great Lakes (ZK) has been the only carrier to Williston for many years, and has the petro economy has boomed air traffic has increased heavily. Not all that long ago Williston had 3 flights to Denver with an intermediate stop, but now they have 4x/day nonstop with the EM2, plus two new 1-stop flights to MSP. ZK code shares with United and Frontier to Williston, but now that RJ's are heading up there I would guess ZK is out of luck.

I would guess that this became a wonderful cash cow for ZK. And this is exactly what happens to an airline like ZK that finally gets a city/route going and producing, and a major will come in and step right on it.

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
LAX to Kelowna BC

I always thought a DEN-YLW route would work well. DEN to both YXE/YQR have now been running about 3-4 years, almost at 2X daily each, and somehow, even to my surprise, these two continue. I've imagined that there isn't that much traffic, but when looking at the fares, well, just filling a few seats probably make the flights profitable. And at just about 1000 miles between the two, DEN-YLW is just about the right mid-length route for both O&D and connects.

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
ORD to Monterry MX,

Here's another one that's a mid-length route that I thought would work from DEN as well.

Oh well, maybe once both cities are set-up and going, there'll be some more expansions soon. And I don't think that any of these expansions will be going to IAH.

 


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25741 posts, RR: 50
Reply 14, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2304 times:

I understand that the Kelowna flight is part of an incentive program the airport and local partners such as ski resorts has been working with United on.

The schedule will be.

LAX-YLW 1840-2144
YLW-LAX 0800-1051

I also understand that the LAX link had been a long dream of the community up there, as California represented 30% of the cross-border traffic demand at the airport already without a nonstop link.
They expect the UA flight will serve locals in the BC interior, and bring year-round tourist in to ski, visit the wine region, and other leisure activities, while providing a link for the growing BC technology and film industries, and provide global access to Kelowna via the LAX gateway.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 7):
Maybe we could see NRT-MNL come to fruition

ANA just last year launched a NRT-MNL service timed 100% to work with the UA transpac ops at NRT. No surprise UA codeshares on it, and its part of the Pacific JV.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineYLWbased From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2006, 835 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 1982 times:

United, y u no start this route earlier?

YLWbased



Hong Kong is not China. Not better or worse, just different.
User currently offlinecbphoto From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1567 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 1906 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 8):
If Zk was to fully cut Williston, that would free up about 2 aircraft. That would go a long way in meeting the EAS awards they were given but don't have the resource to start to Brainard, International Falls, Ironwood and Rhinelander.
Quoting N353SK (Reply 10):
I believe Lakes does maintenance on the Brasilia in Williston, so I wouldn't expect them to completely bail out in the near future.

Correct, Williston is a maintenance base for the EMBs and I would be very very shocked to see us leave in the near future! If more airlines started service, then I could maybe see ZK wind down operations like they did at Gillette and Rock Springs! Will this hurt ZK? Absolutely, but I still don't think it is the end of the road for us!

On a completely unrelated note, it has been strongly rumored too that Farmington, NM has asked United to have Skywest take over that route from ZK as well! If cities start to rebel like this, it could be a slow demise for ZK! Either way ISN really needed this new service and I can guarantee it will be a cash cow for UA!



ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2764 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 1683 times:

Quoting cbphoto (Reply 16):
Absolutely, but I still don't think it is the end of the road for us!

No, not by a long shot....

Quoting cbphoto (Reply 16):
On a completely unrelated note, it has been strongly rumored too that Farmington, NM has asked United to have Skywest take over that route from ZK as well! If cities start to rebel like this, it could be a slow demise for ZK! Either way ISN really needed this new service and I can guarantee it will be a cash cow for UA!

There's still some routes out there left for the picking..... ZK's probably gotta start looking now for some new EAS markets in the area and fly them until they get profitable, and so on. I think more of a worry for ZK is their equipment which is aging and maybe no real replacements available.

 


User currently onlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 6072 posts, RR: 14
Reply 18, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1581 times:

Quoting cbphoto (Reply 16):
Correct, Williston is a maintenance base for the EMBs

Which makes me wonder how much ZK is paying their mechanics to keep them from deserting to the oil fields.



Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently offlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 2069 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 1516 times:

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 7):
WOW! All 5 of the PMUA hubs have something to be excited about!

You are certainly right on this point! The new routes are certainly interesting.

Not long after the merger went through: EZE left IAD for EWR, LIM-IAH went to a 767, and some EWR to Europe markets were upgraded, IAD-CDG and IAD-AMS were downgraded to the dreaded 757.

At a.net people were angry about how Premerger CO hubs were getting all the attention, PMUA hubs were getting little respect and all the neglect. I thought we would never hear the end of it, remember? That changed a little when IAD got DUB and MAN. Now, premerger UA hubs are seeing some more changes, and it's great to see, along with the other additions to the DEN hub. What great news.

Surf and Snow, I think your long post is well thought out and interesting.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16885 posts, RR: 51
Reply 20, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 1362 times:

Interesting article about UA's new service to Williston, and how it's going to be the catalyst for a new airport that local officials hope to get done in five to seven years. Paid for by mineral rights underneath the current airport.

http://www.jamestownsun.com/event/article/id/164751/group/News/



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinecbphoto From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1567 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (2 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1289 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 17):
There's still some routes out there left for the picking..... ZK's probably gotta start looking now for some new EAS markets in the area and fly them until they get profitable, and so on. I think more of a worry for ZK is their equipment which is aging and maybe no real replacements available.

Correct, I think ZK has a bigger worry about it's fleet replacement plan even more importantly, finding pilots to staff the company, then UA coming into ISN!

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 18):
Which makes me wonder how much ZK is paying their mechanics to keep them from deserting to the oil fields.

You know, their are always job postings for Mechs in ISN, so whatever it is, it is probably not enough to keep them there long!

Also another thought crossed my mind, UA and ZK codeshare on almost every flight, so my bet is ZK knew that UA was going to enter the market. By UA entering the market, ZK could possibly work with UA in providing different flight times (including MSP) and relieving some of the pressure ZK has of being the sole provider for service in ISN. With this in place, you might see frequent and dependable air service into ISN! Pipe dream...maybe  



ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
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