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Leahy No Longer Expects 30 A380 Orders In 2012  
User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 433 posts, RR: 11
Posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 21288 times:

Sorry, source only in German at this time:
http://www.aktien-meldungen.de/Nachr...-30-Bestellungen-fuer-A380-4619930
Summary translation:
At Farnborough, Leahy conceded that he won't achieve the targeted 30 sales for the A380 in 2012. "The market for very large aircraft has become weaker". In May, Leahy still reiterated his sales target of 30, although he already added it would not be easy. Airbus had been hoping for A380 orders from Emirates and Cathay Pacific in particular.


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71 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5722 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 21261 times:

Does this have anything to do with Cathay's A350 order?

User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 433 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 21117 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
Does this have anything to do with Cathay's A350 order?

Was wondering the same thing - quite possible they went with A350-1000 for the time being as they see no immediate need to get VLAs.
Then again - they won't get the A350-1000s for another six years, either.

I'm curious now what this means for the TK RFP - as well as the 747-8i sales Boeing was confident of concluding. Leahy was talking about the VLA market in general, not the A380 specifically.



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User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1562 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 20992 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
Does this have anything to do with Cathay's A350 order?

I think so. Their choice for 26 -1000s means IMHO no VLA orders for the next couple of years. A couple of weeks ago Zeke reported CX completed their VLA evaluation, and he concluded the 747-8i wasn't part of the plan - but I think no A380 either.

Could also mean an indication TK will go for the 748i as their VLA. Hopefully we'll learn more this week.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1381 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 20565 times:

Who knows...

Airbus via twitter: "If you're at #FIA12 then join us for a very special event near the #A380 at 12:45 today!"

Fingers crossed.


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3374 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 20301 times:

Quoting flood (Reply 4):
Who knows...

Airbus via twitter: "If you're at #FIA12 then join us for a very special event near the #A380 at 12:45 today!"

Fingers crossed.

Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!


User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1381 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 20199 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order

I would think so...

Airbus: "We're clearly very keen on this one!"

An order from TK would indeed be awesome.


User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3379 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 20201 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!

A new customer would be something to celebrate. If TK turns out to have chosen the A380, how many would they likely be ordering and how many options?

Cathay: perhaps they are waiting for A388 incremental improvements to bring performance close to what they would ideally like to have?


User currently offlineteahan From Germany, joined Nov 1999, 5293 posts, RR: 61
Reply 8, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 20012 times:

Last year the "very special event" at Le Bourget turned out to be nothing.


Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 433 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 19817 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!

The fact they postponed it could indeed point to an order - but "very special event" has turned out too many times not to be that special after all. And I'm not even talking about Airbus or airshows in particular, but trade shows in general.

Fingers crossed, though.



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User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12333 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 19555 times:

18 Jan 2012: "I've told Tom [Enders, Airbus chief executive] that I'm going to sell 30 A380s this year," said chief operating officer for customers John Leahy. "Thirty is a good number because we're going to try to keep the book-to-bill ratio at at least one or better." (Ref: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...2-dismisses-747-8i-threat-367068/)

11 Jul 2012: Leahy conceded that he won't achieve the targeted 30 sales for the A380 in 2012. "The market for very large aircraft has become weaker".

So much for Sir John the Wise...

From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

Giving up with almost half the year to go?

So much for Sir John the Brave...

What we really have is John the Jester...



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineNorthstar80 From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 212 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 19510 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

(c) He lost one/some clients to competition.   



You have to have your heart in the business and the business in your heart. -Thomas J Watson
User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 433 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 19096 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

With regard to a), given how long he's been in the business and how many airplanes he's already sold, I think it's pretty save to say that he's as good as predicting the market as anybody in the industry, never mind anybody on a.net
With regard to b) Why would he try to grab headlines by saying something in January (and reiterating it again in May) that he knows he's going to have to do a u-turn on again later on? Especially if his bonus likely depends on it (as indicated by him stating that he told Enders what his sales goal is)?

Quoting Northstar80 (Reply 11):
(c) He lost one/some clients to competition.

(d) A potential client decided not to order any VLAs for the time being.

To be honest, (d) seems the most likely, given (1) how many people - including the Airbus chief of marketing - expected CX to sign on for the A380 (who went A350-1000 instead, at least for the time being) and (2) how Leahy phrased his concession of the sales target. He stated that the VLA market had cooled down, which wouldn't suggest he lost a sales campaign, while he already hinted a few months ago that Airbus already lost UA's narrowbody order. So it's not like he's afraid to say if he lost a campaign.
Also, I don't think Leahy expected a 100% win ratio for all VLA campaigns when he set the initial target. Case in point - he probably didn't count TK as a definite win in January.



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User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 433 posts, RR: 11
Reply 13, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 19015 times:

By the way - here's an English language article on Leahy's revised target, including a longer quote from the man himself:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...a380-sales-as-demand-dwindles.html

Quote:
“The big aircraft market has been slowing down,” Airbus Sales Chief John Leahy said in an interview at the Farnborough air show today. The target of 30 is “looking like a stretch at this point but when you set your goals at the beginning of the year you can’t change them. Let’s see how close we can get.”



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User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17330 posts, RR: 46
Reply 14, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 18808 times:

Quoting anfromme (Thread starter):
"The market for very large aircraft has become weaker".

Understatement of the decade.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinephxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 882 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 18337 times:

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
(d) A potential client decided not to order any VLAs for the time being.

I think this is the most logical. I also see Leahy having a suprise A380 order up his sleeve. Its always better to underpromise and overdeliver.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6865 posts, RR: 63
Reply 16, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 18338 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
So much for Sir John the Wise...

From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

Giving up with almost half the year to go?

So much for Sir John the Brave...

What we really have is John the Jester...

What a spiteful and unnecessary post. Might it be (c) things change.

Sheesh.


User currently offlineBigJKU From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 875 posts, RR: 11
Reply 17, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 18093 times:

To be fair PM John really crosses a lot of common business practices for many people. He sells a good product, there is really no need for some of the over the top crap he likes to do from time to time. It is going to strike a lot of people the wrong way and generate negative reactions.

User currently offlinebikerthai From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 2064 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 17337 times:

Also to be fair PM. John is a really good salesman. And even a good salesman can be annoying to those not looking to buy his product.  

Girl Scout cookies or magazine subscription anyone?

bt



Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12333 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 17340 times:

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
With regard to a), given how long he's been in the business and how many airplanes he's already sold, I think it's pretty save to say that he's as good as predicting the market as anybody in the industry, never mind anybody on a.net

Leahy is a great salesman, but not the clairvoyant that some here claim he his.

He should be called out when his pompous, bombastic and arrogant statements turn out to be baloney.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
Why would he try to grab headlines by saying something in January (and reiterating it again in May) that he knows he's going to have to do a u-turn on again later on? Especially if his bonus likely depends on it (as indicated by him stating that he told Enders what his sales goal is)?

Why indeed? Maybe his bonus cycle ended in May? We saw inquires into his and Noel Foregeard's behaviours with regard to share sales back in the days of the A380 delays (oops, we're still in those days...).

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
He stated that the VLA market had cooled down

When has it ever been hot? Back in the days of the 747-400? Boeing tried to flog the various 747-500/600 ideas, none went anywhere. Boeing looked into partnering with Airbus on the A380 and both walked away. Airbus launched the A380 with amazingly optimisitic sales projections that it's never been close to meeting.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 12):
Also, I don't think Leahy expected a 100% win ratio for all VLA campaigns when he set the initial target.

Then why the pompous statement "I told my boss the CEO that I'm going to sell 30 A380s this year"? What success rate was he expecting? What investors chose to act on such a clear public statement from a man who holds the title of Airbus' Chief Commercial Officer?

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
What a spiteful and unnecessary post.

That's your opinion, and you're certainly welcome to have it and express it.

My opinion is that many here have way too high an opinion of JL, and it's "necessary" to point out the things he gets wrong because so many here worship the man and can't see any flaws in him, or at least won't admit them in public.

I feel no spite to or jealousy of the man, despite what your posting suggests. I'm just pointing out behaviors of his that most here seem to be so willing to gloss over.

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
Might it be (c) things change.

What's true today that wasn't true in February?

His statement of February was so full of certitude.

Why was he so certain in February yet is backing off from his statement now?

Could it be he overstated his position?

I think a fair person would admit that's just what he did.

Once one does that, then it's just a matter of appraising how wildly he overstated his position.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 18):
He sells a good product, there is really no need for some of the over the top crap he likes to do from time to time. It is going to strike a lot of people the wrong way and generate negative reactions.

  



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinekrisyyz From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 16817 times:

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 16):
I think this is the most logical. I also see Leahy having a suprise A380 order up his sleeve. Its always better to underpromise and overdeliver.



That is for sure, especially when the industry and the markets are so hungry for some positive news. TK probably went with the A380 and A330 deal over the B748. Understandable decision but never-less a blow the 747-8 program.

KrisYYZ


User currently offlineBrouAviation From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 985 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 16656 times:

No.1 mistake of a salesman is to pretend as if your potential customer is already in your pocket, when they are listening. Customers hate it to be taken for granted, and I expect airlines not to be any different.


Never ask somebody if he's a pilot. If he is, he will let you know soon enough!
User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1381 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 15922 times:

Quoting anfromme (Reply 9):
The fact they postponed it could indeed point to an order - but "very special event" has turned out too many times not to be that special after all. And I'm not even talking about Airbus or airshows in particular, but trade shows in general.

I'm afraid you're probably right   
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vORlDObrSE8

It sounds like song and dance but I suppose they could still hang pinatas off the engines and couple it with an order announcement.


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2491 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14848 times:

Quoting flood (Reply 22):
I'm afraid you're probably right   
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vORlDObrSE8

I really couldn't understand what he said - listened three times.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
Now moved to 12:45 tomorrow - this has got to be an order - I think that TK is going to order some A380s!

Might be........we'll know soon enough.


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9976 posts, RR: 96
Reply 24, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14855 times:
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Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
So much for Sir John the Wise...

From this I think it's fair to conclude either:
(a) Leahy can't predict the market six months in advance, or:
(b) Leany just makes stuff up to get headlines.

Giving up with almost half the year to go?

So much for Sir John the Brave...


What we really have is John the Jester...

I'm sure there must have been a reason for this rant. For the life of me I can't make out what it was...

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):
My opinion is that many here have way too high an opinion of JL, and it's "necessary" to point out the things he gets wrong because so many here worship the man and can't see any flaws in him, or at least won't admit them in public.

From an alternative viewpoint, of course, all those people are doing is trying to defend him from the deluge of vitriol, most of it unjustified, that he is subject to routinely on here....
Just depends on where your head's at, I guess.....

Me, I think he's one of the most unfairly maligned people on here, and for what it's worth, the predominant reason I'll put forward (not the only one) for this is, basically, er, jealousy.
He should be working for Boeing, really, shouldn't he?

Anyone want to argue that he's not successful? Very successful, even, at his job?

Rgds


25 N14AZ : Hmm, and what has to happen so that the market becomes stronger again? If this is the actual reason than I do not see why this should change quickly.
26 BigJKU : Many successful people are not loved by the business community. I am not sure what that has to do with anything. It really is very simple for me. Som
27 Post contains images phxa340 : He is obviously extremely successful. But to be successful in the business world you tend to be very vocal and typically isolate a few people in the
28 Post contains images astuteman : When the argument being presented is effectively that he's a complete tosspot who doesn't know his a**e from his elbow, I'd say it's extremely releva
29 BigJKU : I would agree the guy is no fool. But I can very much see why many people don't respect him either.
30 Post contains links and images anfromme : It was Leahy himself that conceded that he's unlikely to reach the self-proclaimed target for the A380 this year. News agencies are reporting on it,
31 dfambro : So, Leahy saying he's going to miss a sales target (that wasn't that big to start with) means that he's got a big order to announce? If he had a majo
32 N14AZ : So let's say it will be only 15 orders this year, or maybe even only 10. From where do you think could this additional 11 or 6 airframes come from? -
33 Revelation : The more succinct version of the rant is pretty much the exact part of the next posting that you also chose to quote, namely: ... Above I've characte
34 Post contains images anfromme : Are you referring to Mike Godwin? Sorry, couldn't resist
35 bikerthai : Actually, I think if Boeing wanted a sales person with the same personality as JL then, they would have hired someone with the same style already. I
36 BlueShamu330s : Have to agree with Astuteman regarding JL. I spoke some years ago to someone rather high in Boeing (an ex-MCDD executive). He went to great lengths to
37 Stitch : Frankly, at the moment Airbus needs to deliver 30 A380s in a year. Once they can sustain that, JL will have an easier time getting existing and new cu
38 phxa340 : Oh yes , fully agree , but what works for Airbus might not work for Boeing and vice versa ... I think it has helped Airbus that JL has such a strong
39 N14AZ : No, we are at 10 airframes. Last delivery was LH # 10 on June 15.
40 anfromme : A technicality: Randy Tinseth is a VP as well, but it's true that the bolder statements with Boeing usually come from the program VPs, like Elizabeth
41 Post contains images bikerthai : Boeing had "Harry". But he was not much of a salesman. Perhaps the reason why Boeing don't have one "head salesman" is they do the sales as teams whi
42 Post contains images rwy04lga : The HR manager? I'm sure you're astute enough to figure it out even though you might disagree with it. a** for the Yanks
43 Post contains links flood : Yeah, the HR manager speaking of "seeing the most engaged employees", hence we'll probably be left with some dance routine. They're such a tease http
44 Post contains images chuchoteur : ...In reply to some of the above, one of the things John Leahy is good at is closing a deal, even if the people on the other side of the table don't
45 Post contains images KC135TopBoom : The best year for B-747 sales was in 1990 when 122 were sold, all B-747-400s. But the B-747 has had many, many years where 50 or more were sold, of a
46 flood : Probably because their MoU was for 4 aircraft, not 6.
47 Post contains links anfromme : The MoU - when it was announced in November 2011 - was already for "only" 4, not 6, A380. http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...ro-airlines-commits-
48 frmrCapCadet : Current cognitive studies claim humans are occasionally rational, and that emotions (not necessarily irrational) are far more important in most situat
49 mogandoCI : Anyone think there's a slim chance that Asiana might consider the A380 to remain competitive against Korean Air ? Sadly, CX will not order the super-j
50 Acheron : Kind of like when Tinseth likes to run his mouth as well, and those who bash Leahy defend Tinseth?.
51 Aircellist : Well, at least he has the honesty and (relative) modesty of coming up front with the "bad" news. And, yet, he's still been right on many predictions.
52 Post contains links and images PM : Somewhat better than "slim", I'd say. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...es/asiana-orders-six-a380s-351544/
53 Post contains images 747400sp : This is sad new for me, since I am a VLA lover. It is really a hard knocks life for us VLA lovers.
54 zeke : HKG is already slot constrained at various times of the day, as well as gate constrained. And we are just talking about airport slots, slots to get o
55 AirPacific747 : The A380 looks really good in the Asiana livery based on the picture there..
56 SFOA380 : I love the A380 but isn't this a bit much for TK? Trying to keep up with the Jones'?
57 SEPilot : I have frequently voiced respect for JL's ability and record of accomplishment. That being said, he is still human, and humans make mistakes, misstat
58 zoom1018 : I still see many flights operated by A320s... change that.
59 btblue : Don't BA have a top up order in the pipeline? They have a shed load of 747s that will need replacing and I am certain a 777W won't do the job for many
60 brilondon : How is this a blow to the 747-8 program? As far I can see, TK won't be ordering a huge amount of aircraft.
61 astuteman : Sadly no. It made, and still makes, no sense to me. For me, it was also out of character for the poster... This I can understand. Being criticised fo
62 zkeye : we are less than 1/3rd of the way through it yet......
63 Post contains images Revelation : This is the heart of the matter for me. The real question is why would he make such a bombastic statement: .. to begin with ... ... especially if it'
64 Post contains images astuteman : I'd perhaps encourage his critics likewise... I've seen my share of bolshy salesmen......... I guess what I see is that getting hung up on him in suc
65 Post contains images Revelation : It's pretty difficult, given how fond JL is of using the first person. My feeling about the blogs of the two Randys (lol) is that focus much more on
66 redrooster3 : So what happened to that special event at 12:45 today? Did TK order some A380's?
67 EPA001 : There was a flash-mob to recruit new personel for Airbus. Then you would have read about it big time. Even if they would have dismissed the A380 you
68 cosmofly : More and more people will fly and as the A380 evolves and improves, it will dominate the VLA market in decades to come. So we just have to be patient
69 chuchoteur : Of course. In actual fact, I doubt John Leahy actually runs any sales campaigns himself these days. But he's there when a deal is set up and needs to
70 SEPilot : The answer is the type of person JL is. He is extremely self-confident, and a bit arrogant, as well as optimistic. These are all a part of what makes
71 PW100 : Well off course. But then again, nobody is waiving flags when Joe Sutter is appreciated for developing and building the 747. Well off course he did n
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