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D/FW Airport Plans For International Expansion  
User currently offlineGEsubsea From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 183 posts, RR: 1
Posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8487 times:

So, what is everyone's take on the idea of Global Ports ~ the movement of people from one continent to another continent over a central spot to serve at least 80 or 90 international destinations, as defined in the attached article relating to DFW's plan to greatly expand its international foot print in the coming years.

According to the DFW Airport's Jeff Fegan, "the airport’s projection for the most-likely growth scenario over the next five years includes adding 26 new international destinations served by eight new airlines. That includes direct flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Istanbul, Abu Dhabi, Barcelona, Istanbul, Lima, Quito, Bogota and other cities."

Wouldn't ORD, ATL, or IAH be better served to be the next US DXB in this capacity?

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/bl...fw-airport-be-a-global-portal.html

37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineGEsubsea From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 183 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8479 times:

And how many airlines and international destinations are currently served by ORD, ATL & IAH respectively compared to DFW right now?

User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4059 posts, RR: 8
Reply 2, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8362 times:

If we are talking about ONE airport to be the central focus of the entire continent it would need to be located in 1) a major population market and 2) somewhat close to the population center of the continent.

The population center of North America is probably somewhere around northwest Arkansas or eastern Oklahoma right now, and DFW is the closest MAJOR population market.


User currently offlineATLgaUSA From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8337 times:

Quoting GEsubsea (Thread starter):
That includes direct flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Istanbul, Abu Dhabi, Barcelona, Istanbul, Lima, Quito, Bogota and other cities."

When coming up with the 26 cities, did they count Istanbul twice?


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7642 posts, RR: 25
Reply 4, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8297 times:

As one of the sites biggest DFW fanboys, let me take a crack at this.

Reading the article, I find Mr. Fegans plans extremely optimistic. Yes, there is definately room for some international expansion from DFW especially given that it is the fastest (or second fastest depending on the numbers you look at) growing metro area in the US. Its also the number 8 spot in the US for international immigration which does boost things some.

However what has to be realized is that DFW's number of longhaul international destinations is not going to increase 30% in five years. Period. There are some destinations that are not as far fetched given AA's ties and a growing local market. Those might include LIM, BOG, and HKG. If QR joins OneWorld and builds a very close relationship with AA, DOH should be no problem either. Lacking any AA/QR tie up, DFW-DOH will never appear.

Then again, I think we can go ahead and count destinations like IST, UIO, AUH (unless EY joins OW), and PVG out. I cant see those really working. I know IB has mentioned DFW-BCN, but I dont think its a good idea. Unlike DFW-MAD, it has almost no local market and the hub on the BCN end is not ideal. DFW-PEK might work but it also might not. Im on the fence on that one.

Another thing that has to be taken into consideration is geography. DFW was not blessed with excellent geography the way ORD and ATL were. That does hinder things especially over the Atlantic and to Northern South America because DFW is not far east enough.

Basically I cant fault Jeff Fegan for his ambitiousness. He is doing his job which is trying to get more service here. However, I just cant see it happening in this way.

[Edited 2012-07-17 14:37:53]


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User currently offlineGEsubsea From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 183 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8227 times:

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 2):
If we are talking about ONE airport to be the central focus of the entire continent it would need to be located in 1) a major population market and 2) somewhat close to the population center of the continent.

The population center of North America is probably somewhere around northwest Arkansas or eastern Oklahoma right now, and DFW is the closest MAJOR population market.

Yes, but if you look at the DXB model they fulfill neither of those points really, so how can DFW be a true "Global Portal" in this instance? Another factor that should also be included would be 3) weather patterns (since DXB does not have to deal with ice / snow storms in winter and thunderstorms during spring / summer). Although, the gulf patterns could in some cases affect IAH ops in such a model as well.

One thing that I think DFW has going for it is the amount of land at its disposal to grow its Int'l terminal, whereas IAH is rather land locked unless it absorbs another Terminal in its vicinity.


User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5192 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8224 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
DFW-PEK might work but it also might not. Im on the fence on that one.

Yea...not right now with the fall off in demand for US-China traffic. I'd expect IAH to get that before DFW in the current climate.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
IST,

I agree...at least not by TK as they are *A and starting IAH...



Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2193 posts, RR: 15
Reply 7, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8223 times:

LOL, I just love reading these stories from my hometown airport. They seem to re-circulate every summer. Although I might argue that the media source could have been more selective in choosing their photo of Terminal D. It looks absolutely dead and outdated with a pic of the KE 772, a taxing AM 737, and (what was) an ATA L10/11 charter. When was this taken, circa 2006?

Hah.

Now, in DFW's defense, the airport has indeed grown and expanded over the years, most notably bringing in exotic carriers such as QF and EK which have performed very well, alongside growth from carriers such as NK and new incumbents such as VX and B6.

HOWEVER, I always feel as though Jeff Fegan loves to talk bigger game than one can actually vouch for.

Quoting GEsubsea (Thread starter):
According to the DFW Airport's Jeff Fegan, "the airport’s projection for the most-likely growth scenario over the next five years includes adding 26 new international destinations served by eight new airlines. That includes direct flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Istanbul, Abu Dhabi, Barcelona, Istanbul, Lima, Quito, Bogota and other cities."

Meh. A lot of hypothesizing here without much movement (until this point) to indicate otherwise.

Let's start with China: the US-China routes have proven not to be the cash cows people believed they would otherwise have been. PVG and PEK are non-OW hubs, and I cannot see any reasons why MU or CA would see potential in a route to DFW. I don't think AA is in a position to launch a DFW-PEK/PVG route; their pre-existing ops to China are still very much in development phase.

IST has already stated they have intentions to launch other US cities long before DFW, including DTW, PHL, MIA, ATL, etc. Certainly not impossible, but I doubt DFW is on the higher end of their list.

AUH is a possibility, especially if EY's ties with OneWorld continue to strengthen. There *could* be room for two UAE airlines serving DFW.

BCN I think is just an undying rumor that is about as unlikely as MAN. Spain and Southern Europe are NOT hot spots at the moment.

LIM/UIO/BOG I think are more likely possibilities, but I'd venture to say that AA sometimes has a tough time balancing its Latin American ops from DFW when it already has MIA. The purported "growth potential" of routes like DFWPTY and DFWGIG have kind of stayed stagnant over the years. Coupled with the fact that DFW is competing for Latin American traffic with options via ATL, MIA and IAH, it's probably safer to say that the primary areas of growth will come from Mexico and less so from South America.

Quoting GEsubsea (Thread starter):
Wouldn't ORD, ATL, or IAH be better served to be the next US DXB in this capacity?

The comparison to DXB and the concept of a "global portal" is stretched, IMO. NO airport in the US will ever evolve into this space simply because the traffic breakdown (domestic vs. international) is WIDELY different when comparing the top US airports to the mere TWO international airports serving the UAE.

Look at the breakdowns of the following airports and you will see the answer for yourself.

At DFW, 88% of the traffic moving through the airport is domestic, vs. 12% international.

At ATL, 87.9% is domestic, vs. 12.1% international. This is the busiest airport in the world we're talking here.

ORD: 83.5% domestic, 16.5% international.

IAH: 76.5% domestic, 23.5% international.

MIA: 55.6% domestic, 44.4% international.

Guess what the breakdown is at DXB?

.2% domestic, vs. 99.8% international.

The differences are like night and day. Dubai is only competing against one other major hub airport (AUH) for traffic. There is virtually ZERO domestic feed, which they do not need in order to support their intercontinental operations. Whereas US airports absolutely rely on their domestic ops to feed their international trunk routes. The only airport that appears remotely "balanced" between domestic and international operations is MIA, which is one of the highest O&D markets in the country (I did not count JFK/LAX/SFO because that would involve adding in calculations for surrounding airports and that would throw off the data). Whereas DXB is solely based on international traffic and let's be frank; DXB is not a large O&D market.

So, to answer your question, I foresee NONE of the airports you mentioned as becoming the next DXB, at least not in the US. Just not a concept that would ever work in theory due to geography and population diaspora. Least of all, an airport like DFW.

[Edited 2012-07-17 14:48:30]


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User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7642 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8185 times:

Quoting GEsubsea (Reply 5):
Yes, but if you look at the DXB model they fulfill neither of those points really, so how can DFW be a true "Global Portal" in this instance? Another factor that should also be included would be 3) weather patterns (since DXB does not have to deal with ice / snow storms in winter and thunderstorms during spring / summer). Although, the gulf patterns could in some cases affect IAH ops in such a model as well.

If youre talking about which airport really has the potential to be the DXB of the US, its niether DFW nor IAH. Its ATL. More destinations are served from ATL than either. ATL is served by 239 destinations whereas DFW and IAH are both served by about 180 not taking into account UA's recent cancellations.

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 6):
Yea...not right now with the fall off in demand for US-China traffic. I'd expect IAH to get that before DFW in the current climate.

I agree and as it should be. The local market is stronger from IAH than DFW to China (minus HKG). That logic is the whole reason DFW has service to Korea and IAH doesnt.



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User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4020 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 8171 times:

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 2):
The population center of North America is probably somewhere around northwest Arkansas or eastern Oklahoma right now, and DFW is the closest MAJOR population market.

The population center of the US is in Texas - that is Texas County, MO. Can't predict long-term trends but it seems it will continue in MO until 2040.



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User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7642 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 8154 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 7):
LIM/UIO/BOG I think are more likely possibilities, but I'd venture to say that AA sometimes has a tough time balancing its Latin American ops from DFW when it already has MIA.

It really just depends on the destinations. DFW-UIO is much too small a market to really work. DFW-BOG is growing and realtively fast as well. Its not very far fetched.

DFW-LIM is one that I scratch my head on. This is a route that has all the dynamics to really work, yet it never really has. Given the growth the market has seen, I think in the future it will work.



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User currently offlineeagle125 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 22 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 8089 times:

Global Port at DFW? In FIVE years? Fegan sure is spitting out bold words these days. Must be encouraged by the NK expansion.  


AT7, M80, 83, 88, E145, 190, B722, 732, 733, 735, 73G, 752, 772, 77W, A319, 320, 343
User currently offlinemfe777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 87 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7678 times:

DFW is a good connection point for long trips from East Asia to Central America and Western South America. With booming the booming economy in China, DFW could be a good crossroads for these long journeys. The trip length with a stop in DFW can be very close to a nonstop journey, and great domestic connections only add to the benefit.

For example:

PVG-BOG, 9789nm
PVG-DFW-BOG, 9752nm

PVG-LIM, 10,652nm
PVG-DFW-LIM, 10,708nm

PVG-MEX, 8025nm
PVG-DFW-MEX, 8286nm

ICN-BOG, 9243nm
ICN-DFW-BOG, 9279nm

ICN-LIM,
ICN-DFW-LIM,

Similar small differences from Shanghai and Seoul to Mexico City, other Mexican cities, Belize, Caracas, etc.


DFW is also not a bad stop for East Asia to the Southeastern USA such as MIA and MCO. Maybe not as good as ATL but almost just as good and almost negligible as far as extra mileage go.


User currently offlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 2128 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7605 times:

I saw a chart of the center of population trend per US census since 1790. If you followed the trend, it would actually put the center of population almost right in the middle of Houston. Since this is a pretty long term plan, and with how fast the population median is moving, wouldn't it make since for Houston to be making a plan like this? Dallas is a huge city with lots of economic interests and is fast growing, but Houston isn't too far behind in terms of rate of growth and is the energy capital of the United States, if not the world.
http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/center-of-population.php

In the mean time, I could very well see AA supporting DFW-UIO/BOG/LIM. And if the rumors of QR joining oneworld are true, then DFW-DOH would be a no-brainer, then again, so is DFW-HKG... DFW-BCN could be done on IB doing a flight with the same number on the DFW-MAD and MAD-BCN leg also with an AA codeshare. IST, PEK, and PVG have a snowballs chance in Hell of starting anytime soon, I don't even think within the rest of this decade. As it stands right now, the only rapid growth I see in the short-run are on LCC's setting up shop in DFW.

Also, if you were to put a gigantic, DXB style, mega-airport based on geographic center, you would definitely choose RAP  Winkhttp://www.census.gov/geo/www/2010ce...p2010/centerpop_geographic2010.pdf

[Edited 2012-07-17 19:26:10]


Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlinejporterfi From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 446 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7469 times:

If, by some miracle, this starts to happen, what will WN do at DAL? Does the Wright Amendment prevent them from establishing international service at DAL (and so is AA safe from their competition)? I can see Gary Kelly planning another Houston scenario...   

User currently offlineeagle125 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 22 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7419 times:

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 14):
Does the Wright Amendment prevent them from establishing international service at DAL

DAL will remain a domestic airport for all non-stop flights under the repeal compromise.



AT7, M80, 83, 88, E145, 190, B722, 732, 733, 735, 73G, 752, 772, 77W, A319, 320, 343
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2193 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 7320 times:

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 14):
If, by some miracle, this starts to happen, what will WN do at DAL? Does the Wright Amendment prevent them from establishing international service at DAL (and so is AA safe from their competition)? I can see Gary Kelly planning another Houston scenario...   

People tend to over-estimate the future plans WN has for DAL post 2014. They will be restricted to only 16 gates, which means that likely they will probably not exceed 150-180 daily flights, up from where they are currently at ~130. My guess is that they will trim a few of the short-haul markets in favor of opening up longer stage ones, and also deploy the 738 on a few key business routes such as LGA.

WN's international growth will come from other gateways.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlineFlyingSicilian From Italy, joined Mar 2009, 1335 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 7182 times:

Quoting eagle125 (Reply 15):
DAL will remain a domestic airport for all non-stop flights under the repeal compromise.

That is why God invented lawyers and lobbyists....but I agree DAL will stay domestic. WN can grow in too many other places for int'l.



“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
User currently offlineplaneguy727 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1249 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6938 times:

Unless DFW develops a sterile transit area that does not require Int'l to Int'l connections to clear US customs and immigration it won't be the global connecting hub for anything. This is true of any US airport.


I want to live in an old and converted 727...
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7642 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6852 times:

Quoting planeguy727 (Reply 18):

This is an excellent point. Unless this happens, no US airport will be a DXB style hub.



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User currently offlinelegacyins From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2080 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6828 times:

Quoting planeguy727 (Reply 18):
Unless DFW develops a sterile transit area that does not require Int'l to Int'l connections to clear US customs and immigration it won't be the global connecting hub for anything. This is true of any US airport.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 19):
This is an excellent point. Unless this happens, no US airport will be a DXB style hub.

This is a Federal issue and far above any local or State authority. In other words, never going to happen, IMO.



John@SFO
User currently offlineGEsubsea From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 183 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6706 times:

Quoting legacyins (Reply 20):
Quoting planeguy727 (Reply 18):
Unless DFW develops a sterile transit area that does not require Int'l to Int'l connections to clear US customs and immigration it won't be the global connecting hub for anything. This is true of any US airport.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 19):
This is an excellent point. Unless this happens, no US airport will be a DXB style hub.

This is a Federal issue and far above any local or State authority. In other words, never going to happen, IMO.

VERY good point in fact!!! My and I came back from Germany last Xmas and she was unfortunately called into the Death Star Two-Way window office as her passport (complete with her permanent residency visa) was stolen from our vehicle 6 months before (she was flying on a temp. card good for one entry back into the US). While in there she was sitting next to a another German national who was in fact in there because her "transit-visa" was showing expired in the INS system. The customs agent was belittling the young lady as to why she was flying in on a non-active transit document which was in fact supplied by competent (you would THINK anyway) US Consulate officials in Frankfurt. The agents made a huge fuss and were very rude to her, but the situation was sorted. The result of the matter then was that she and her husband missed the connection to Costa Rica they were scheduled to fly and had to wait another 2 days as the next days flghts were already booked. My wife was pissed at the way our system is set up here as she feels we should in fact immulate the EU concerning how pass. are allowed to transit via a sterilized environment instead of having to clear US customs first before proceeding to the next Int'l flight. If IAH let alone any other airport in the US wants to immulate DXB and grow exponentially into a Global Portal, the government has to be convinced to setup a "sterile transit area".


User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2632 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 6138 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 7):
The purported "growth potential" of routes like DFWPTY and DFWGIG have kind of stayed stagnant over the years.

Re: DFW-PTY, AA in PTY is so MIA-centric that even AAdvantage members aren't quite aware of DFW-PTY non-stop. Also DFW-PTY-DFW is no good for connections to/from Far East.

Quoting mfe777 (Reply 12):
DFW is a good connection point for long trips from East Asia to Central America and Western South America.

I think this says what I intended to say about international to international on-line connections @ DFW.

Quoting planeguy727 (Reply 18):
Unless DFW develops a sterile transit area that does not require Int'l to Int'l connections to clear US customs and immigration it won't be the global connecting hub for anything. This is true of any US airport.

Wild suggestion for DFW marketing department, there's no loss if they talk to CM, CM just started to code-share with AA OneWorld mate IB MAD-PTY. And B.T.W. CM's E190 has the range for PTY-DFW.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12150 posts, RR: 51
Reply 23, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 6109 times:

DFW and North Texas has nothing to offer in the way of big increases for international travel. We don't have the types of industries here, with the exception of the oil industry, that attracts international businesses.

The best airports in the US for that would be ATL, BOS, JFK, IAD, IAH, LAX, and SFO. There simply is no business case to be made for North Texas, only tourism and vacationers, and even then it is limited.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7642 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (2 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5918 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 23):
DFW and North Texas has nothing to offer in the way of big increases for international travel. We don't have the types of industries here, with the exception of the oil industry, that attracts international businesses.

The best airports in the US for that would be ATL, BOS, JFK, IAD, IAH, LAX, and SFO. There simply is no business case to be made for North Texas, only tourism and vacationers, and even then it is limited.

With due respect, I really dont think you know much about the economy in North Texas if you truly believe that. Most of DFW's international traffic is not even from the oil industry, its from the tech industry. A common mis-conception is that DFW is an oil town which it is not. Unlike cities like Houston, the economy is heavily diversified and DFW is not really huge in one sector. Instead it has a major presence of virtually everything.

Also, you should know DFW generates more international O&D than Atlanta does, but Atlanta has a better geography than DFW does which allows for more international flights.

[Edited 2012-07-18 08:32:09]


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25 IrishAyes : There is no "boom boom" in China and even less so when you factor in that the most likely carrier to serve DFW-China routes would be AA, which is cur
26 MAV88 : Even the low growth scenario seems a bit high. That's not a knock on the DFW, just the notion that any airport will see 18 new international cities s
27 2travel2know2 : Miami (plus Ft Lauderdale) is in the U.S. and surely there are at least 18 markets in Latin America + Caribbean still without MIA non-stop flights.
28 mfe777 : Also a great stopping point for Tokyo-Brazil traffic. Does anybody know if NRT-DFW-GIG or GRU is a popular route, or if the flights are timed for goo
29 MAV88 : They are not talking about flights to a single region. MIA/FLL is very strong to that area and I would bet more than half of their international O&am
30 planeguy727 : re: sterile transit area Before E gates open in ATL the T area was a sterile int'l concourse (I worked there). Still not really set for cx pax, but it
31 LAXdude1023 : Indeed NRT-DFW-GRU is extremely popular. In fact, the shortest travel time from GRU to NRT is through DFW based on the scheduled times. ^^^This. Cant
32 IrishAyes : DFWKIX has been attempted several times. It was first a 9/11 victim and then re-attempted in better times, but the route performed poorly in a very s
33 bobloblaw : Do you expect DFW to sit idle and let IAH to take all the economic growth?
34 thomasphoto60 : Ditto for IAH. I suspect that HAS is likely working just as hard as the folks in the Metroplex in securing new services, difference is HAS is much mo
35 blink182 : Yes. One would especially think that given all of the hassles non US-citizens have to go through to transit, that this wold be a high priority. Perha
36 legacyins : Again, please see respons 20. Sterile areas at airports for foreign flights need concurrence from the Federal Government. No airport in the United St
37 IrishAyes : Not necessarily so. In some cases yes, others no, but this brings into question the classic DFW vs. IAH debate which, in reality, is a bit frivolous
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