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What’s Doing In DEN – Summer, Fall, 2012  
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2765 posts, RR: 1
Posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3165 times:

DEN is a busy as well as eventful airport. It seems that almost daily here on a.net, a thread is going on about this airport. It’s been about a year since I last posted a thread on DEN, and in that year, much has happened. And where to begin?

First, it seems that in 2011, DEN has dropped to 11th place (from 10th) in the World’s Busiest Airports by Passengers, being overtaken by HKG by some 500K pax. And within the first few months of 2012, DEN has dropped a bit further in those rankings, being surpassed by airports in Asia and DXB. Maybe this summer will help it regain some momentum, but the projected DEN growth rate of 1-2% may not be able to overcome some of these double digit growth of the above airports. DEN though still remains fourth among the world’s airports in total operations, behind ATL, ORD, and DFW, and slightly ahead of fifth place LAX.

Now, onto the better news. DEN has finally, after over ten plus years of effort, gotten its first nonstop service to Asia, a DEN-NRT route to be started by UA in April of 2013. Also on the international front, DEN has also started nonstop service to KEF with FI, and it is believed that this flight is being received extremely well in the early going. From the DEN online publication, here are DEN’s top O&D international destinations.

courtesy DEN Wingtips 7 12 1


Surprisingly, LHR takes first. Also of note is that SJO is less than 350 pax per year (or 1 pax per day) from YVR in being among the top five. Y4 has also received approval to start DEN-MEX, to compete on this route with UA and the seasonal AM. There’s even word from NZ officials that they are at least considering a DEN-AKL nonstop upon arrival of their 787s, but at this point, this seems to be somewhat of a longshot, although who knows, eh?

At this point, has DEN probably overtaken ATL as the top airport in the U.S. with the most domestic nonstop destinations? However, upon my email questioning this to DEN airport management, here is part of the response that I received:

While it is true that for the month of July 2012 there were more domestic nonstop destinations served from Denver International Airport than any other U.S. airport, a look at just one month is only part of the picture. Many destinations enjoy seasonal service that doesn’t operate in July (e.g., ski destinations like Vail and Steamboat Springs) so we tend to track this metric by looking at full year data. If we look at what airlines have scheduled for the full calendar year of 2012, Atlanta has service to 161 domestic destinations and Denver has service to 159 domestic destinations. And even if we take into account destinations that will permanently lose serve at some point during 2012, Denver is only tied with Atlanta – 158 domestic destinations for each airport. (FYI, both Vail and Steamboat Springs are served nonstop from Atlanta during ski season but the service doesn’t operate in July.)

So, we are very close to this milestone but just haven’t quite surpassed Atlanta. Maybe 2013 will be our lucky year! It’s too soon for us to tell as airline schedules are not available for the full year of 2013 yet.


Will 2013 provide DEN with another metric where it will be tops and it sets the standard? DEN presently has more percentage of domestic service to international service than any other airport in the world…. and whether one sees that as a positive or a negative, at least here DEN sets a standard. Yet as the international nonstop flights are slowly growing, the domestic flights seem to keep growing even more so.

From the beginning of 2011, DEN has started, or is booked to be started, a total of about 45 new nonstop route additions from my count, mostly by F9, UA, and WN. 27 of those 45 are additions to routes already flown by other carriers, so the competition continues. 4 of these routes include DFW, ORD, LAS and FLL, flown by NK, DEN’s new airline as of 4/12, and what a surprise that they landed in DEN. Continuing, 18 of those are new destinations for nonstops, including domestically (and some seasonal) FAI, PVD, RFD, BMI, MDT, BLI, and internationally, ZIH, LIR and PUJ by F9. UA domestically has started DAL, LBB, and MAF, and will start SHV and GFK, along with NRT internationally. WN added JAX and PVD. And then FI, another new airline in DEN this year, added KEF. Quite a bit of addition in roughly the last year and a half, yet there have probably been less than a handful of routes discontinued.

Recently, work on the South Terminal expansion has finally begun.....

courtesy DEN Wingtips 7 12 2


...and within the next 3-4 years, there will be a rail terminal that will have trains connecting with downtown Denver, and a 10 story hotel, among other things, and that will look like this…...

courtesy DEN Wingtips 7 12 3


And lastly, it is predicted by locals that DEN will have about 62M pax by 2020. This is only about a 1 to 2% increase per year going forward. And if so, maybe this can give a bit of pause to those naysayers, both in media and here on a.net, that DEN can’t support 3 major hub carriers, especially if the O&D remains above 50%?

http://www.metrodenver.org/transport...astructure/transportation/air.html

I would think that in at least one way or another, a lot of cities and their airport managers around the U.S. (and maybe some around the world) are maybe envious of the situation at DEN?

Finally to all, may there be only the best….

  





[Edited 2012-07-25 10:32:34]

9 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinebeechtobus From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3072 times:

Very nice write up, thank you. I'm very excited the east rail to downtown. Also had no clue that Volaris was granted MEX-DEN authority.

User currently offlinehohd From United States of America, joined May 2008, 434 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3046 times:

For a *A hub, DEN has quite low passengers per day to Frankfurt. I wonder how DEN-NRT will do, considering that UA itself has several flights from its different hubs to NRT.

User currently offlineUNITED91 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 53 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3021 times:

Great post, I look forward to seeing what happens in the future.

On another note, according to the Denver Post, the new Denver patent office which is scheduled to open by 2014 could attract more international flights out of DEN.

Source:

http://blogs.denverpost.com/techknow...e-dias-international-flights/5301/

[Edited 2012-07-25 11:19:17]

User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2765 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2902 times:

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 1):
Very nice write up, thank you.

Your welcome, and thanks for the compliment.

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 1):
I'm very excited the east rail to downtown. Also had no clue that Volaris was granted MEX-DEN authority.

Yes, the train should eventually make it much easier to get to DEN, from most parts of the city once done. And yes, Y4 has gotten the authority, but when they'll start it is another matter, since the authority was received probably over a month ago. And the O&D DEN-MEX shows 166 PDEW so it should support the UA, the seasonal AM, as well as Y4 if there can be some connects.

Quoting hohd (Reply 2):

For a *A hub, DEN has quite low passengers per day to Frankfurt. I wonder how DEN-NRT will do, considering that UA itself has several flights from its different hubs to NRT.

These are the O&D numbers, which isn't bad I suppose. Also, a couple of more things, is that connects usually make the A346 flight go out full (or near full) daily, and second, even though DEN has lower than average fares domestically, the international flights go out with premium fares, since there are so few of them. I'm not quite sure as to how this can factor in, but a connecting flight on a DEN-FRA route is roughly $200-$300 less expensive than the nonstop. And then, DEN-LHR is about $450 less than the FRA nonstop.

So with the above....does that tell us anything?

Quoting UNITED91 (Reply 3):

Great post,

Thank you

Quoting UNITED91 (Reply 3):
On another note, according to the Denver Post, the new Denver patent office which is scheduled to open by 2014 could attract more international flights out of DEN.

Yes, this is something that most likely will attract more business.

 


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2699 times:

Is this directional or non directional passengers. If non directional you have to divide by 730 not 365 to get pdew.

User currently offlineAA757MIA From United States of America, joined May 2008, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2485 times:

Quoting hohd (Reply 2):

For a *A hub, DEN has quite low passengers per day to Frankfurt.

I was surprised to read 144, I've taken the LH flight 4 times in the last 4 months and it's always been almost full. It's always about the same price as other one/two stop options though, so that may mean that they just want people buy and fill the NS one.

Quoting point2point (Reply 4):
These are the O&D numbers, which isn't bad I suppose. Also, a couple of more things, is that connects usually make the A346 flight go out full (or near full) daily, and second, even though DEN has lower than average fares domestically, the international flights go out with premium fares, since there are so few of them.

I didn't read this until after I replied.
Makes sense, on my last flight I was sitting around some people connecting to other places, including ELP and BOI.

[Edited 2012-07-25 23:33:56]

User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2765 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (2 years 3 months 15 hours ago) and read 2220 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 5):
Is this directional or non directional passengers. If non directional you have to divide by 730 not 365 to get pdew.

I'm not absolutely sure, but I would suppose this IATA BSP data that is used above probably follows the FAA approach, and the numbers are total traffic between two points. So with DEN-LHR, the yearly O&D traffic is 138,735 and this divided by 365 equals 380 total daily O&D passengers between the two, and then that would be 190 passengers DEN-LHR and 190 passengers LHR-DEN. I think that somehow maybe we arrive at the same conclusions here with this?

One can always email the DEN staff with any question such as this, and they usually respond with an answer within a day or so, if not later in the same day sometimes.....

 


User currently offlinejumpjets From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2012, 849 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 3 months 15 hours ago) and read 2202 times:

"and then that would be 190 passengers DEN-LHR and 190 passengers LHR-DEN"

BA flies in and out of DEN once a day with a 777. A 3 class 777 has around 270 seats, a 4 class around 225. I am not sure which version BA was flying when the table was compiled, but whichever it was a one way journey could not accommodate the 380 daily passengers reported in the table at the start of this thread.

It would seem therefore that the 380 passengers quoted would have to be an average of 190 in each direction.


User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2765 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (2 years 3 months 14 hours ago) and read 2128 times:

Quoting jumpjets (Reply 8):
It would seem therefore that the 380 passengers quoted would have to be an average of 190 in each direction.

I think that there is basically agreement here, correct?

And also, we have to remember that a percentage of those O&D may not necessarily take the nonstop flight. There are those who may chose a connection along the way.

Just for comparison, below is the previous chart of DEN international O&D from about a year ago.....

source: Denver Wingtips


FRA seems to have gone down drastically, LHR remains almost exactly the same, yet other European destinations seem risen a bit.....

Wonder what's doing with FRA? I'd like to see their new 748i here soon, but it won't happen at the rate the numbers are going. Just off the top of my head guessing, maybe it has to do with the fares going up substantially, since that is most likely something that could do it?

 

[Edited 2012-07-26 17:25:25]

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