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Airbus Sees A380 Delivery Drop; Slower New Orders  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24325 posts, RR: 47
Posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 16284 times:

While EADS is sticking to its 30-delivery target for 2012, CEO Tom Enders says they do not expect to make similar number of deliveries in 2013 as customers are reluctant to take aircraft until a definitive wing repair solution is available in 2014.

He also cast doubt on the idea of Airbus securing 30 orders for the model this year, saying airlines are tempted to wait longer to see how the wing issue is resolved.


Story:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/eads-a-idINWEA805620120727

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From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
56 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29686 posts, RR: 84
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 16243 times:
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I'm a bit worried Airbus won't make 30 deliveries this year...

User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5267 posts, RR: 29
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 15476 times:

Well, that's got to sting a little bit for Airbus. I can't imagine either manufacturer is thrilled about the status of their new programs right now. Nor the airines.

However, it's a great time to be a A330/77W manufacturer.  

-Dave



Totes my goats!
User currently offlineebj1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 15060 times:

"Enders said Airbus expected to have European safety authority approval for its proposed solution to the cracked rib feet or brackets inside the A380's wings within weeks."

If this is the case, why is it going to take a whole year before new orders might be expected. And the way the airlines are reacting, it appears the wing crack problem is a bigger matter than has been suggested in the past.



Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineimiakhtar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 14310 times:

Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 3):
why is it going to take a whole year before new orders might be expected.

For the same reason the A330 and 77W are still selling and the A350 and B787 aren't - delivery slots. Any airline ordering the A380 or the A350 and 787 today will have to wait at least five years before they can get their hands on them. Also, throw in the economic turmoil and the lack of financing and you'll find airlines are hesitant to tie in capital for deposits.

Even Boeing is finding it difficult to get new 777 sales:

Boeing Says 777 Backlog Damps Sales as Airlines Shun Wait


User currently offlinethijs1984 From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 87 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 13498 times:

Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 3):
If this is the case, why is it going to take a whole year before new orders might be expected. And the way the airlines are reacting, it appears the wing crack problem is a bigger matter than has been suggested in the past

from the airlines point of view, it's better to wait till the problem is completly solved. You wont get any A380 earlier anyway. Why take a (small) gamble if you have the time enough to await the final solution.


User currently offlinefrmrCapCadet From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1690 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 12442 times:

Perhaps someone can summarize what a 380 taken today will experience in shutdowns for repairs before its first major overhaul. Is Airbus planning on doing the temporary repairs before delivery? And is Airbus likely to have a crew that can do the permanent repairs a lot quicker? Were they to have a specially trained and experienced crew how quickly might it be done? If permanent repairs were to take only a week, and that by appointment this could move to a non-issue.

Does an airline have to take a plane which has this much unplanned maintainance? Obviously if they need a 380 they will take it, but what if they are no unsure of the business case?



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User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24325 posts, RR: 47
Reply 7, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 12351 times:

According to this story its takes 30,000 man hours (8-weeks) for the repair retrofit on existing frames.

Airbus says due to 10-month lead time to incorporate modifications into the production line, it will not be until early 2014 that deliveries have the corrected wing structure.

A380 wing-cracks to require eight-week repair downtime
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...eight-week-repair-downtime-372813/

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From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 11929 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 12165 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
A380 wing-cracks to require eight-week repair downtime

It seems the magnitude of this issue just keeps growing.

Where do you find an extra 30,000 man hours of skilled labor per frame to make the repairs?

It must be a huge headache for those at TLS.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12420 posts, RR: 100
Reply 9, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 11915 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
I'm a bit worried Airbus won't make 30 deliveries this year...

Ditto. And for 2013.  
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
According to this story its takes 30,000 man hours (8-weeks) for the repair retrofit on existing frames.

Airbus says due to 10-month lead time to incorporate modifications into the production line, it will not be until early 2014 that deliveries have the corrected wing structure.

I wouldn't order an A380 and I think the type has amazing economics.   Not until there is a fix and strong faith in delivery times. It is too much risk for an airline to order as far out as required now. Now when one is looking at a D-check of labor for the temporary fix and another for the permanent. Since the fix has to currently happen twice, the downtime alone gets expensive.


Lightsaber



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User currently offlineSheridan125 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2012, 25 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 11857 times:

Perhaps the lack of new orders has nothing to do with wing problems. Maybe it is because no airline has yet made a profit out of A380 operations. Any news on whether A380 operations have been profitable would be welcome.

User currently offlinefcogafa From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 738 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 11786 times:

Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 10):

Perhaps the lack of new orders has nothing to do with wing problems.

True, they didn't seem to be getting very many new orders even before the wing problems were announced.


User currently offline747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3301 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 11596 times:

I used to be upset that FedEx did not take delivery of their A380F order, but it looks like they dodge a bullet, but still I believe the A380 will become a success. It took the 747 until the late 80's to really become a success, and it first flight was in the late 60's.

User currently offlineKDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 155 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10860 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 2):
Well, that's got to sting a little bit for Airbus. I can't imagine either manufacturer is thrilled about the status of their new programs right now. Nor the airines.

Especially after the new announced delays over the A-350 program on Friday....just added a little fuel to that fire.


User currently offline747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3301 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10730 times:

Quoting KDAYflyer (Reply 13):
Especially after the new announced delays over the A-350 program on Friday....just added a little fuel to that fire.

Well I bet Boeing, is having a feild day right now.   


User currently offlineaztrainer From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 515 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10689 times:

I have a question. To complete the fix of the wing cost the frame 30,000 man hours or 8-weeks of downtime. Does Airbus provide the airlines replacement planes (I know it would not be an 380, but some mix of 330's or 340's) or does the airline just lose the profit of that plane. If so, will the airlines seek compensation for the problems? Thank you for any insight.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29686 posts, RR: 84
Reply 16, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10693 times:
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Quoting 747400sp (Reply 14):
Well I bet Boeing, is having a feild day right now.     

Slow A380-800 deliveries have not helped sales of the 747-8, so I am inclined to doubt that.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8090 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9758 times:
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Most airlines that intend to order the A380 have already and many have already placed second orders. Tbere are some that could order the Whale Jet like Turkish, Air India, SAA, JAL and ANA. Cathay Pacific seems to like the A350-1000 as its next flagship.

User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5267 posts, RR: 29
Reply 18, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 8847 times:

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 14):
Well I bet Boeing, is having a feild day right now.

Had the 787 roll out gone smooth, perhaps. As it is, they are likely just thankful that it isn't their frame with this problem, and they also know that the future could bring something similar - or worse. If anything they are breathing a sigh of relief that the bullet wizzed past them this time.

-Dave



Totes my goats!
User currently offlinediverdave From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 299 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 8638 times:

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 14):
Well I bet Boeing, is having a feild day right now.

I think Boeing is well occupied with their own issues. Just take a look at all the 787s parked in Seattle awaiting rework.

David


User currently offlinespink From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 317 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 8173 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
Most airlines that intend to order the A380 have already and many have already placed second orders. Tbere are some that could order the Whale Jet like Turkish, Air India, SAA, JAL and ANA. Cathay Pacific seems to like the A350-1000 as its next flagship.

Well, at this time, considering the issues, the current backlog and the production rates, unless you are absolutely slot limited, it probably makes more sense to wait for the 350-1000 and 777x. Realistically, you are going to have to wait 6 years and both the 350-1000 and the 8x/9x look to offer better economics and better flexibility.


User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3321 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 8146 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
Now when one is looking at a D-check of labor for the temporary fix and another for the permanent. Since the fix has to currently happen twice, the downtime alone gets expensive.

Makes me wonder what EK will do with thier early frames. I wouldn't be suprised if other airlines are also worried about this as EK could put a world of hurt on the lease values if they decide to start leasing or selling frames as new ones come in. And the right time to do that would be as you say, When your already got the plane out of service for the permanent fix. So somewhere down the road, EK knows its going to have its planes out of service long enough to remove EK specific equipment and put them on the market. It doesn't have a choice about that time out of service and the costs.


User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1907 posts, RR: 8
Reply 22, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 8023 times:

Quoting Sheridan125 (Reply 10):
Maybe it is because no airline has yet made a profit out of A380 operations. Any news on whether A380 operations have been profitable would be welcome.

If I recall correctly, all A380 operators are reporting that the plane is making profits for them. New orders for the A380 were slow due to the banking crisis (difficult to get financing) and definitely the lack of slots and delivery certainty.

There's more than enough stuff out on the net about the A380 performing good, there are no doubts on that front.

Cheers!   



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7888 times:

Does the A380 hold the record for delays in getting to the stage of production free from significant faults requiring rectification? It's nearly 5 years since the first was delivered and all aircraft manufactured so far have had faults requiring major fixes (rewiring first 25 or so + recently identified wing problem). Roll on 2014 when A380's will no longer require rework before or after delivery (one hopes).

I wonder when production will reach the originally planned 40 per annum.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1806 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7678 times:

With the economic down turn globally I think airlines are vary of buying too much capacity, it will be hard to make a profit flying 400 seats on the A380..

25 KarelXWB : What is the lifetime of an airplane type, 20, 30 years? I'm sure Airbus can sell another 150 whalejets in the next 10 to 20 years.
26 sweair : The problem I see is surviving this fast changing economic world, we can go from super growth to an economic depression in 6 months, all fueled by gov
27 EPA001 : I am sure they can and will sell a lot more then 150 new A380's over that period of time.
28 Revelation : True if the frames all have equal cost per air-seat mile, but the A380 is delivering the highest CASM in the industry, so it has a chance to stay aro
29 Post contains images spink : I sure hope it isn't delivering the highest CASM in the industry. Largest plane + highest CASM = failure. Also there is a reason to believe that both
30 Revelation : Oops! I meant best/lowest... I suspect that being beat on CASM would trigger the A380 re-engine.
31 Post contains images EPA001 : Not very likely, especially if the airlines are equipping their A380 with very spacious seating arrangements. Airbus has stated that the A350 will ge
32 Post contains links KC135TopBoom : Not true. Between 1966 (when the B-747 was first offered for sale) and 1984 (when developement of the B-747-400 began) Boeing sold 638 B-747-100/-200
33 spink : I'm just going off of ferpe's WAG numbers from over in techops. Well that and some better wingtip devices.
34 tdscanuck : No. For current production aircraft, that record would go to the 737 since it's still not there yet. But neither is anyone else. All aircraft being p
35 VC10er : Hello, novice here! Why wouldn't Boeing take advantage of this A380 issue by offering a 748i solution? I wouldn't dare say how, but most competing com
36 art : Take your point but when I used the term "significant" I meant faults requiring a large amount of input to fix eg redesigning the wiring system on th
37 Stitch : Boeing certainly is, but if you already have the A380 on order, it is the frame worth waiting for. For those who do not have the A380 on order, the 7
38 Burkhard : Yes, all airlines who are happy to have them report they are their cash cows. I see another 150 A388 still be sold, and the A389 then outselling the
39 Post contains images EPA001 : That would be something. And it is certainly not impossible imho. .
40 spink : I would say that it is perfectly reasonable to believe that a 2020 built 350-1000 or 777-9x will deliver lower CASM than the current 380. If you have
41 PW100 : Do they assume equal seat density? Just asking, perhaps you have a link to those numbers? Thanks, PW100
42 Post contains links spink : Ferpe's numbers were both per seat and per M^2: Boeing Vs. Airbus Wing Design Philosophies (by ferpe Apr 16 2012 in Tech Ops)
43 LAXintl : I wonder what this will do for the Airbus cash flow ? If customers are reluctant to take delivery of aircraft that will require modification downtime
44 XT6Wagon : adds costs too. Mothballing complete or partialy complete planes isn't free, and having frames sitting around in your way will continue to cause prod
45 Post contains images astuteman : "Are" beating? Both these planes still only exist on paper.. Ferpe's numbers discuss fuel burn only, not CASM. There are a lot of other variables tha
46 XT6Wagon : Yah, but then you could do a charter configuration of the A380 that puts it at the exit limit if your willing to punish your customers like a 10Y A35
47 TheCommodore : Now there's an understatement and a half !! Maybe, but I doubt it. I'm of the opinion its got more to do with the economic outlook for the world gene
48 Post contains images astuteman : The daft thing is you could get an A380 up to about 840 seats at 10-across/18.5" wide and 30"-31" pitch seats with a bit of care. So even at those se
49 sweair : The A350 or the 777 does not have the same problem if the market turns down quickly, right now even China is slowing down, if you have to fill 480 sea
50 Post contains images astuteman : You say that. But in this last rapid turndown the A380's have been kept very, very busy. It appeared to me that airlines were more inclined to consol
51 frmrCapCadet : Could Airbus have one or two 'loaners', generically outfitted acceptably for their customers? It may not be as expensive as it sounds. The question is
52 Revelation : I thought one of the issues making it hard to ramp up A380 production was the degree of customization that each airline was allowed to specify, so I
53 Stitch : Fortunately, you don't need anywhere near 480 seats filled to make a profit with an A380-800. You don't even meed 380 seats filled.
54 neutrino : My still-within-warranty $300 Samsung smartphone don't get a loaner when it was down for a few days. Would Airbus dish out a $300,000,000 loaner? That
55 XT6Wagon : Quite, atleast in the past this stage appears to have been not much past the initial parts order and certainly well before the convoys. Airbus might
56 frmrCapCadet : Indeed car dealers don't like to do this. But when the market requires it they do.
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