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Turkish 747-8I Or A380?  
User currently offlineDID747 From France, joined Apr 2005, 400 posts, RR: 1
Posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 25190 times:

Any idea about he decision to order the 747-8I or the A380? I read somewhere it was expected for the end of July...


Waimanalo
67 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 452 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 25106 times:

They've been saying for a while now that they're very close to a decision (since 2010, I believe), but so far nothing has materialised. Before Farnborough they did say "end of July", I believe, but that date has also come and gone...
Announcement might just be delayed by a few days/weeks - or it mightn't be worth holding our breaths for this one if they decided to wait for the 747-8i PIPs and A380 wing fixes before making a final decision.



Flown on: A300B4, A310-200/-300, A319, A320-100/-200, A321-200, A330-200, A340-500/-600, A380-800, An-24, An-26, ATR42,
User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1922 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 25104 times:

In the Turkish Aviation thread it is said the order hasn't been decided yet, with another board meeting planned for August.

Turkish Aviation August 2012 (by TK787 Aug 1 2012 in Civil Aviation)

However, in one other thread (don't know which one!) it was mentioned that Turkish had decided for 99% for the Boeing 747-8i... Unconfirmed of course.

Cheers!



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 24664 times:
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Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 2):
However, in one other thread (don't know which one!) it was mentioned that Turkish had decided for 99% for the Boeing 747-8i... Unconfirmed of course.

StrategicAero Research evidently has claimed that TK has chosen the 747-8.


User currently offlinejreuschl From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 547 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 24308 times:

What routes would they fly the larger aircraft on? JFK since it is 3x daily?

User currently offlinephxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 891 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 24277 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
StrategicAero Research evidently has claimed that TK has chosen the 747-8


I am assuming availability played a large part in this decision ? (That and its great plane)


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 24189 times:
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Quoting phxa340 (Reply 5):
I am assuming availability played a large part in this decision ? (That and its great plane)

Honestly, TK is an airline I could see growing to the point where both the 747-8 and the A380-800 could serve in their fleet, but yes, I expect TK can get a 747-8 "soon" thanks to 747-8 freighter customers deferring orders due to continued weak cargo demand around the world.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 7, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22960 times:

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 5):
I am assuming availability played a large part in this decision ? (That and its great plane)
Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
but yes, I expect TK can get a 747-8 "soon" thanks to 747-8 freighter customers deferring orders due to continued weak cargo demand around the world.

Availability and how soon they can get hold of a VLA is largely irrelevant. IST is not ready for a fleet of either type and nor does it seem like it will be made ready, TK have to wait until the new IST is sited and built.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 663 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22850 times:

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 5):

Would that depend on the size of TK's potential order??    I know that carriers use mutiple versions of widebody aircraft ie 777,330, 340, 767 but I know that most carriers that have the 747 who are now using the A380 or will be getting the A380 are not or doesn't seem like (IMHO) using them side by side. Singapore phased them all out, EK has none, Malaysia is accelerating the 747 for the A380. BA will soon phase out the 747 for the 777x or the A350.

Granted LH, KE, and Qantas have 747's and the A380 and operate them together but they are larger than TK and have better routes to serve those aircraft.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.


User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22761 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
Availability and how soon they can get hold of a VLA is largely irrelevant

I beg to differ. If hypotehtically they could get a 748 in 2013, but an A380 wouldn't be available until 2015-2016, I'm sure that would weigh on their decision.

On a related note, what are the current backlogs for the A380 and 748?


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 10, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 22302 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 9):
I beg to differ. If hypotehtically they could get a 748 in 2013, but an A380 wouldn't be available until 2015-2016, I'm sure that would weigh on their decision.

You haven't read what I said. TK's home base, IST, is not geared up for more than a handful of VLAs so, until the new airport is built, TK cannot practically add such a type to their fleet, even adding more 77Ws will put pressure on the number of large stands available. The new airport has only just gone out to tender and is planned to open in 2015, making the sooner availability of the 748i largely irrelevant.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 22105 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10):
The new airport has only just gone out to tender and is planned to open in 2015, making the sooner availability of the 748i largely irrelevant.

Granted. But still, say the new IST opens 2015, wouldn't TK want to get their new VLA asap? Im sure backlogs run well over 2015 so still, if they can have 748 short after new IST opens, but A380 takes a couple of years (or vice-versa) I´m sure their decision will take that into account.

What I mean is, IST won't be able to handle VLAs until 2015, but TK won't be able to get any sooner than that, either.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 12, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 21713 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 11):
Granted. But still, say the new IST opens 2015, wouldn't TK want to get their new VLA asap? Im sure backlogs run well over 2015 so still, if they can have 748 short after new IST opens, but A380 takes a couple of years (or vice-versa) I´m sure their decision will take that into account.

I can imagine that going from 0 to a small fleet in one shot, especially at a new airport, would be very challenging and again not that practical. Also I am very skeptical about the opening date, 2-3 years to go from the end of a tendering process to opening a facility capable of handling 90mppa. Yeah, good luck on that one... I'll raise my hat to them if they pull it off that's for sure


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 21612 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 12):
I can imagine that going from 0 to a small fleet in one shot, especially at a new airport, would be very challenging and again not that practical.

I agree, and I've always been skeptical of TK ordering VLAs but that's not the topic at hand. The question is wether TK would choose 748 or 380 not if (and that's a BIG IF) they should buy VLAs in the first place (which I believe we agree they shouldn't)


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 14, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 21534 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 13):
I agree, and I've always been skeptical of TK ordering VLAs but that's not the topic at hand. The question is wether TK would choose 748 or 380 not if (and that's a BIG IF) they should buy VLAs in the first place (which I believe we agree they shouldn't)

Oh no, I think TK is quite ready to add a VLA to their fleet, I can see them having 6-10 initially with that number growing to 20+ in the more distant future. But it's not going to be practical until the new airport is open - which is now badly needed.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineFLALEFTY From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 470 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 19210 times:

Here's a thought...Maybe TK is looking to lease some of the 25 748is that LH has commited to. With the current Euro recession, that might make some sense.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 16, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 19161 times:
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Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 15):
Maybe TK is looking to lease some of the 25 748is that LH has commited to.

LH has 20 on order with 20 options.


User currently offlinespiritair97 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 1231 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 18893 times:

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 5):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):StrategicAero Research evidently has claimed that TK has chosen the 747-8

I am assuming availability played a large part in this decision ? (That and its great plane)

That, and they seem to be a bit more loyal to Boeing than they do to Airbus. They have 86 Airbus' in their fleet, versus 94 Boeing. Boeing probably gave them a better deal.


User currently offlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3798 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 17792 times:
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Has TK flown the 747 before? It is, although it would be nice if Boeing wins another order for the 747-8, quite surprising to see an airline buying the 747-8 as they probably never had 747s of any variant before.


Ben Soriano
User currently offlineabba From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 1342 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 16718 times:

I will be very surprised if an airline such as TK took 748i in as their very first VLA. The 748i is no doubt the final and last incarnation of the legendary 747. To take this model - I would say - makes more sense for an airline that already has the 744 such as LH.

The A380-800 on the other hand is the first incarnation and will be followed by many more incarnations in the years to come. Sooner or later TK will need to take this model as well if they want to continue operating VLAs. So why not begin here?


User currently offlineSSTsomeday From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 1276 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 15717 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 14):
Oh no, I think TK is quite ready to add a VLA to their fleet, I can see them having 6-10 initially with that number growing to 20+ in the more distant future. But it's not going to be practical until the new airport is open - which is now badly needed.

Speaking of VLA's for TK, specifically, "do they need them:" Is TK in a geographic position to give Emirates a run for their money as another transfer airport between West and East? Do they have any designs to become a major transfer operation out of Istanbul? THAT would require some VLA's.



I come in peace
User currently offlinestylo777 From Germany, joined Feb 2006, 2976 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 14232 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10):
You haven't read what I said. TK's home base, IST, is not geared up for more than a handful of VLAs so, until the new airport is built, TK cannot practically add such a type to their fleet, even adding more 77Ws will put pressure on the number of large stands available. The new airport has only just gone out to tender and is planned to open in 2015, making the sooner availability of the 748i largely irrelevant.

in fact, IST (Atatuerk Airport) at the moment is not even certified for A380/B748 ICAO category F size aircraft. Even en-route diversion due to emergency had been denied in the past. which underlines your last statement: nothing requiered (or able to operate) before 2015 earliest.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 18):
Has TK flown the 747 before? I

no they haven't. in fact, the first 747 operated by any Turkish company just came to Turkey a few years ago. so far only one cargo operator has them.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 20):

Speaking of VLA's for TK, specifically, "do they need them:"

Seen over the whole year NO, but during special seasonalities they are able to easily fill those planes. One of those is the hajj season, also during summer to Northamerica and again during summer to places like LON, AMS, FRA, etc. I would say that the Far East is very well served with the 77W (right size, right range, right price, right aircraft).


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 14080 times:

Flight training is quite fast for 777 pilots I heard, a bit of commonality. Price and delivery slots also matters. Cargo is also an area were the 748 is good, I can imagine LH using that cargo space when the only fly 380 seats.

User currently offlinedennys From France, joined May 2001, 889 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 14021 times:

TK sometimes needs a bigger aircraft on some EU routes than th 773 , so 748 would be usefull for them !
Cheers !


User currently offlineanyong From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 62 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 13987 times:

Also where else besides JFK is TK considering for their VLA? Would India be on their target, and if so, wouldn't the 748 make more sense?

25 Post contains images PlymSpotter : IIRC they can modify the set-up to accommodate 2-3 such aircraft, but that's still not enough to be feasible. And why spend the money when the hub is
26 tcm : Looking at how they have been growing over the last few years; one should consider the capacity needs of 2015-2016. I wouldn't be surprised if TK wou
27 TK787 : Latest news, the tender for the new IST be done as early as this month, with 1st stage completion in 3 years for a 90mil pax capacity. For a final cap
28 tcm : My main worry is whether the project will be able to realized through Build-Operate-Transfer (Yap-Islet-Devret) considering the problems in raising f
29 CXB77L : Maybe because the 748i is the right aircraft for TK, right now? Whether an aircraft type is in its first or last incarnation is irrelevant. Even if 7
30 ricknroll : Wouldn't that settle the question? It doesn't matter what they want, if they don't have an airport that will take them. No one is going to get a new
31 Post contains images sunrisevalley : To get this sort of "delivery" I assume the contract will go to the Chinese
32 sunrisevalley : In my view it depends what payload/ range they need . If they need the maximum of both components they will go with the A380 . If they need something
33 Stitch : If TK can't operate a VLA until IST is ready, and there is no firm schedule as to when IST will be ready, one wonders why TK is bothering with a VLA R
34 AirlineCritic : I guess the schedule is being firmed up. But it would be really surprising to get a major airport done in three years. Just ordering all the materials
35 Post contains images PlymSpotter : They have very impressive plans. The site is chosen and there is a reasonably firm schedule for the opening stages. But I share the caution/skepticis
36 Revelation : I wouldn't be surprised in the least. Interesting. So are you also saying that airlines should stay away from the A320, A330 and B737 since they all
37 Post contains images astuteman : I certainly don't disagree. But if the replacement for their A380's in 15-20 years time could easily be a later version A380, whereas the 747 has by
38 PW100 : While I support your NPV argument, I wonder how that applies to fleet expansion, rather than aircraft replacement? Would lost opportunity also find i
39 Turkish350XWB : As the product always matures at the customer (example A380) never buy sth that has not been on the market for some years. So in 2020 the first fully
40 umit : I think when we talk about the space on Ataturk airport when the VLA"s' specially 748s come,we should also think about 8 airbus 340s those will be ret
41 Post contains images PlymSpotter : The A343 is a Code E aircraft with a 60.3m wingspan. The 748i and A388 are Code F aircraft with 68.45m and 79.75m wingspans respectively. Dan
42 abba : If it is TK's intention to give EK a run for its money - and if they succeed - they will need to add new VLAs from time to time in the future. And as
43 Post contains images EPA001 : That could very well be the case. Indeed they have. It will be interesting to see these plans evolve and seeing them realised. It could. But I have a
44 columba : I absolutely agree. The 747-8I seems to me the better fit right now for Turkish but I would not rule out an A380 order in a few years. But for the si
45 MeCe : Various code E airports approved for 748I operation because 748 is lower end of code F by size. However IST is very short for parking spots, especial
46 Stitch : Well if TK wants a freighter larger than their A330-200Fs, Boeing is the only option, so I could see how being able to bundle a 747-8 and 747-8 freig
47 Post contains images PlymSpotter : Yes it's not so much the maneuvering for the 748, it's the parking. IIRC there are 2-3 stands which could be modified to accommodate a VLA, but that
48 Post contains links N14AZ : And the winner is: ..... ................................................. ................................................. .........................
49 Revelation : Sorry, I don't read Turkish and Google Translate doesn't do a very good job. At best it seems to be saying that they are interested in the B787 and/o
50 N14AZ : Sorry, I thought refereing to the on-going discussion in the Turkish Aviation thread was sufficient. Here is the summary a.net member Turkish350XWB pr
51 tcm : TK will aperantly not order any VLAs and will wait further regarding a decision on ordering B787s/A350s. The article mentions that TK is concerned wit
52 Post contains images frigatebird : Didn't they notice the 787 is already in service with NH and JL? Almost seems they're reading articles about the 787 from 2009 or so Earlier I read t
53 Post contains images N14AZ : So we have a culprit for this mess. PYLMSPOTTER!!!! WHAT HAVE YOU DONE!!! I always thought they had already ordered the 787. In 2009 I saw a poster i
54 aeroblogger : The recent problems with the GEnx engines have the potential to be very serious. I'm not surprised TK wants to wait it out... That much was already c
55 phxa340 : All reports out from the NTSB, Boeing, and experts are pointing to a manufacturing flaw and not a design flaw so I don't think it will be that seriou
56 PW100 : They could always opt for RR . . .
57 PW100 : Off course then the question is, how many other engines could be affected, and how do you make sure engines installed on a 787 (ready for delivery) a
58 ytz : This is outside the box but I actually think TK would do better by ditching the 77W and going for a 787-10/747-8 fleet mix, in the long run. The 787-1
59 Post contains images ASA : Not at all - in fact, thinking outside the box is certainly needed for future planning. For the immediate expansion - I think the TK management makes
60 kaitak : Pity ... but not really surprised; I was actually surprised that they issued an RFP for a VLA at all, but I think all it has done was to delay an orde
61 ytz : Why not lease until 787-10/777X/A350 is available? Buying an aircraft that will be outdated for 80% of its service life seems like a poor decision. A
62 Post contains images leftyboarder : Mostly true, but TK serves a lot of secondary markets EK might never be able to venture into. VLAs will never fill up for those. TK will always need
63 tcm : I have no doubt TK will need VLA capacity in the long term. Let's not forget that TK is still a relatively new operator of 777s. I still remember the
64 ER757 : It's not crazy but it's a non-starter at present since the 787-10 doesn't exist and isn't offered for sale. Until such time as Boeing makes it availa
65 ytz : But surely, most will concur that there's sufficient smoke for there to be some lit kindling somewhere. Boeing executives are openly talking about th
66 Post contains images ASA : I hadn't realized that the 787-10 is still 'on paper'. My bad. Even the design specs and economics have not been finalized. Yes, Boeing officials are
67 Tupolev160 : Also, let's not forget that besides the parking issues, IST runways at only 3000m long remain the biggest problem and they're non-extendable. That's t
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