anfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 285 posts, RR: 10 Reply 1, posted (9 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 23496 times:
They've been saying for a while now that they're very close to a decision (since 2010, I believe), but so far nothing has materialised. Before Farnborough they did say "end of July", I believe, but that date has also come and gone...
Announcement might just be delayed by a few days/weeks - or it mightn't be worth holding our breaths for this one if they decided to wait for the 747-8i PIPs and A380 wing fixes before making a final decision.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 3, posted (9 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 23054 times:
Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 2): However, in one other thread (don't know which one!) it was mentioned that Turkish had decided for 99% for the Boeing 747-8i... Unconfirmed of course.
StrategicAero Research evidently has claimed that TK has chosen the 747-8.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 6, posted (9 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 22579 times:
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 5): I am assuming availability played a large part in this decision ? (That and its great plane)
Honestly, TK is an airline I could see growing to the point where both the 747-8 and the A380-800 could serve in their fleet, but yes, I expect TK can get a 747-8 "soon" thanks to 747-8 freighter customers deferring orders due to continued weak cargo demand around the world.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 7, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 21350 times:
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 5): I am assuming availability played a large part in this decision ? (That and its great plane)
Quoting Stitch (Reply 6): but yes, I expect TK can get a 747-8 "soon" thanks to 747-8 freighter customers deferring orders due to continued weak cargo demand around the world.
Availability and how soon they can get hold of a VLA is largely irrelevant. IST is not ready for a fleet of either type and nor does it seem like it will be made ready, TK have to wait until the new IST is sited and built.
rotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 374 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 21240 times:
Would that depend on the size of TK's potential order?? I know that carriers use mutiple versions of widebody aircraft ie 777,330, 340, 767 but I know that most carriers that have the 747 who are now using the A380 or will be getting the A380 are not or doesn't seem like (IMHO) using them side by side. Singapore phased them all out, EK has none, Malaysia is accelerating the 747 for the A380. BA will soon phase out the 747 for the 777x or the A350.
Granted LH, KE, and Qantas have 747's and the A380 and operate them together but they are larger than TK and have better routes to serve those aircraft.
falkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 149 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 21151 times:
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7): Availability and how soon they can get hold of a VLA is largely irrelevant
I beg to differ. If hypotehtically they could get a 748 in 2013, but an A380 wouldn't be available until 2015-2016, I'm sure that would weigh on their decision.
On a related note, what are the current backlogs for the A380 and 748?
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 10, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 20692 times:
Quoting falkerker (Reply 9): I beg to differ. If hypotehtically they could get a 748 in 2013, but an A380 wouldn't be available until 2015-2016, I'm sure that would weigh on their decision.
You haven't read what I said. TK's home base, IST, is not geared up for more than a handful of VLAs so, until the new airport is built, TK cannot practically add such a type to their fleet, even adding more 77Ws will put pressure on the number of large stands available. The new airport has only just gone out to tender and is planned to open in 2015, making the sooner availability of the 748i largely irrelevant.
falkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 149 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 20495 times:
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10): The new airport has only just gone out to tender and is planned to open in 2015, making the sooner availability of the 748i largely irrelevant.
Granted. But still, say the new IST opens 2015, wouldn't TK want to get their new VLA asap? Im sure backlogs run well over 2015 so still, if they can have 748 short after new IST opens, but A380 takes a couple of years (or vice-versa) I´m sure their decision will take that into account.
What I mean is, IST won't be able to handle VLAs until 2015, but TK won't be able to get any sooner than that, either.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 12, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 20103 times:
Quoting falkerker (Reply 11): Granted. But still, say the new IST opens 2015, wouldn't TK want to get their new VLA asap? Im sure backlogs run well over 2015 so still, if they can have 748 short after new IST opens, but A380 takes a couple of years (or vice-versa) I´m sure their decision will take that into account.
I can imagine that going from 0 to a small fleet in one shot, especially at a new airport, would be very challenging and again not that practical. Also I am very skeptical about the opening date, 2-3 years to go from the end of a tendering process to opening a facility capable of handling 90mppa. Yeah, good luck on that one... I'll raise my hat to them if they pull it off that's for sure
falkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 149 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 20001 times:
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 12): I can imagine that going from 0 to a small fleet in one shot, especially at a new airport, would be very challenging and again not that practical.
I agree, and I've always been skeptical of TK ordering VLAs but that's not the topic at hand. The question is wether TK would choose 748 or 380 not if (and that's a BIG IF) they should buy VLAs in the first place (which I believe we agree they shouldn't)
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 14, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 19924 times:
Quoting falkerker (Reply 13): I agree, and I've always been skeptical of TK ordering VLAs but that's not the topic at hand. The question is wether TK would choose 748 or 380 not if (and that's a BIG IF) they should buy VLAs in the first place (which I believe we agree they shouldn't)
Oh no, I think TK is quite ready to add a VLA to their fleet, I can see them having 6-10 initially with that number growing to 20+ in the more distant future. But it's not going to be practical until the new airport is open - which is now badly needed.
FLALEFTY From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 390 posts, RR: 3 Reply 15, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 17600 times:
Here's a thought...Maybe TK is looking to lease some of the 25 748is that LH has commited to. With the current Euro recession, that might make some sense.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 16, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 17551 times:
Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 15): Maybe TK is looking to lease some of the 25 748is that LH has commited to.
spiritair97 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 1231 posts, RR: 1 Reply 17, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 17283 times:
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 5): Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):StrategicAero Research evidently has claimed that TK has chosen the 747-8
I am assuming availability played a large part in this decision ? (That and its great plane)
That, and they seem to be a bit more loyal to Boeing than they do to Airbus. They have 86 Airbus' in their fleet, versus 94 Boeing. Boeing probably gave them a better deal.
American 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3321 posts, RR: 14 Reply 18, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 16182 times:
Has TK flown the 747 before? It is, although it would be nice if Boeing wins another order for the 747-8, quite surprising to see an airline buying the 747-8 as they probably never had 747s of any variant before.
"Aimer jusqu'a l'impossible, c'est possible". Tina Arena.
abba From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 1087 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 15108 times:
I will be very surprised if an airline such as TK took 748i in as their very first VLA. The 748i is no doubt the final and last incarnation of the legendary 747. To take this model - I would say - makes more sense for an airline that already has the 744 such as LH.
The A380-800 on the other hand is the first incarnation and will be followed by many more incarnations in the years to come. Sooner or later TK will need to take this model as well if they want to continue operating VLAs. So why not begin here?
SSTsomeday From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 1276 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 14107 times:
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 14): Oh no, I think TK is quite ready to add a VLA to their fleet, I can see them having 6-10 initially with that number growing to 20+ in the more distant future. But it's not going to be practical until the new airport is open - which is now badly needed.
Speaking of VLA's for TK, specifically, "do they need them:" Is TK in a geographic position to give Emirates a run for their money as another transfer airport between West and East? Do they have any designs to become a major transfer operation out of Istanbul? THAT would require some VLA's.
stylo777 From Turkey, joined Feb 2006, 2870 posts, RR: 12 Reply 21, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 12622 times:
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10): You haven't read what I said. TK's home base, IST, is not geared up for more than a handful of VLAs so, until the new airport is built, TK cannot practically add such a type to their fleet, even adding more 77Ws will put pressure on the number of large stands available. The new airport has only just gone out to tender and is planned to open in 2015, making the sooner availability of the 748i largely irrelevant.
in fact, IST (Atatuerk Airport) at the moment is not even certified for A380/B748 ICAO category F size aircraft. Even en-route diversion due to emergency had been denied in the past. which underlines your last statement: nothing requiered (or able to operate) before 2015 earliest.
no they haven't. in fact, the first 747 operated by any Turkish company just came to Turkey a few years ago. so far only one cargo operator has them.
Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 20):
Speaking of VLA's for TK, specifically, "do they need them:"
Seen over the whole year NO, but during special seasonalities they are able to easily fill those planes. One of those is the hajj season, also during summer to Northamerica and again during summer to places like LON, AMS, FRA, etc. I would say that the Far East is very well served with the 77W (right size, right range, right price, right aircraft).
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 12470 times:
Flight training is quite fast for 777 pilots I heard, a bit of commonality. Price and delivery slots also matters. Cargo is also an area were the 748 is good, I can imagine LH using that cargo space when the only fly 380 seats.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 25, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 12466 times:
Quoting stylo777 (Reply 21): in fact, IST (Atatuerk Airport) at the moment is not even certified for A380/B748 ICAO category F size aircraft. Even en-route diversion due to emergency had been denied in the past. which underlines your last statement: nothing requiered (or able to operate) before 2015 earliest.
IIRC they can modify the set-up to accommodate 2-3 such aircraft, but that's still not enough to be feasible. And why spend the money when the hub is about to move.
tcm From Turkey, joined Jul 2010, 584 posts, RR: 2 Reply 26, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 11618 times:
Quoting stylo777 (Reply 21): Seen over the whole year NO, but during special seasonalities they are able to easily fill those planes. One of those is the hajj season, also during summer to Northamerica and again during summer to places like LON, AMS, FRA, etc. I would say that the Far East is very well served with the 77W (right size, right range, right price, right aircraft).
Looking at how they have been growing over the last few years; one should consider the capacity needs of 2015-2016. I wouldn't be surprised if TK would benefit from VLA's to JFK, NRT, BKK, HKG, LHR and PVG in 3-4 years time.
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 25): IIRC they can modify the set-up to accommodate 2-3 such aircraft, but that's still not enough to be feasible. And why spend the money when the hub is about to move.
They might be able to move cargo ops and general aviation (getting extra space) to the new airport by 2015? Plus, if they finally get to use the military part of IST that should provide some relief.
TK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4108 posts, RR: 13 Reply 27, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 11981 times:
Latest news, the tender for the new IST be done as early as this month, with 1st stage completion in 3 years for a 90mil pax capacity. For a final capacity of up to 120-150mil pax.. Wow!
tcm From Turkey, joined Jul 2010, 584 posts, RR: 2 Reply 28, posted (9 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 11847 times:
Quoting TK787 (Reply 27):
Latest news, the tender for the new IST be done as early as this month, with 1st stage completion in 3 years for a 90mil pax capacity. For a final capacity of up to 120-150mil pax.. Wow!
My main worry is whether the project will be able to realized through Build-Operate-Transfer (Yap-Islet-Devret) considering the problems in raising financing due to the global economic slowdown.
CXB77L From Australia, joined Feb 2009, 2183 posts, RR: 4 Reply 29, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 10650 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW CHAT OPERATOR
Quoting abba (Reply 19): The 748i is no doubt the final and last incarnation of the legendary 747. To take this model - I would say - makes more sense for an airline that already has the 744 such as LH.
The A380-800 on the other hand is the first incarnation and will be followed by many more incarnations in the years to come. Sooner or later TK will need to take this model as well if they want to continue operating VLAs. So why not begin here?
Maybe because the 748i is the right aircraft for TK, right now?
Whether an aircraft type is in its first or last incarnation is irrelevant. Even if 748i is the final incarnation (that remains to be seen), it is nonetheless a brand new aircraft that will have a service life of 15-20 years - not too dissimilar to other widebody aircraft. If TK are to order the 747-8 to be delivered in 2013, chances are it'll still be flying in 2033 and beyond. Likewise, if they had ordered the A380, it'll have a similar service life, so whichever aircraft they pick, they'll be shopping for its replacement in around 20 years time. Makes no difference, really.
ricknroll From Afghanistan, joined Jan 2012, 480 posts, RR: 0 Reply 30, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 10603 times:
Quoting stylo777 (Reply 21): in fact, IST (Atatuerk Airport) at the moment is not even certified for A380/B748 ICAO category F size aircraft. Even en-route diversion due to emergency had been denied in the past. which underlines your last statement: nothing requiered (or able to operate) before 2015 earliest.
Wouldn't that settle the question? It doesn't matter what they want, if they don't have an airport that will take them. No one is going to get a new airport operating by 2015 that will cater for them. If the process is in the very early stages that are indicated it is, then the first question would be, when will an airport be ready to take a 748 or A380. Once that is known with some certainty, and that time is not now, then the next step in process can be taken. In a few years time, the parameters of which aircraft is most suitable will probably have changed.
sunrisevalley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 3953 posts, RR: 4 Reply 31, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 10545 times:
Quoting TK787 (Reply 27): Latest news, the tender for the new IST be done as early as this month, with 1st stage completion in 3 years for a 90mil pax capacity. For a final capacity of up to 120-150mil pax.. Wow!
To get this sort of "delivery" I assume the contract will go to the Chinese
sunrisevalley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 3953 posts, RR: 4 Reply 32, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 10515 times:
Quoting CXB77L (Reply 29): Maybe because the 748i is the right aircraft for TK, right now?
In my view it depends what payload/ range they need . If they need the maximum of both components they will go with the A380 . If they need something like 85% they will go with the 748.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 33, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 10362 times:
If TK can't operate a VLA until IST is ready, and there is no firm schedule as to when IST will be ready, one wonders why TK is bothering with a VLA RFP right now.
AirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 612 posts, RR: 1 Reply 34, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 10192 times:
I guess the schedule is being firmed up. But it would be really surprising to get a major airport done in three years. Just ordering all the materials and equipment alone would be challenging.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 35, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 10113 times:
Quoting TK787 (Reply 27): Latest news, the tender for the new IST be done as early as this month, with 1st stage completion in 3 years for a 90mil pax capacity. For a final capacity of up to 120-150mil pax.. Wow!
They have very impressive plans.
Quoting tcm (Reply 28): My main worry is whether the project will be able to realized through Build-Operate-Transfer (Yap-Islet-Devret) considering the problems in raising financing due to the global economic slowdown.
Quoting ricknroll (Reply 30): No one is going to get a new airport operating by 2015 that will cater for them. If the process is in the very early stages that are indicated it is, then the first question would be, when will an airport be ready to take a 748 or A380
Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 31): To get this sort of "delivery" I assume the contract will go to the Chinese
Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
If TK can't operate a VLA until IST is ready, and there is no firm schedule as to when IST will be ready, one wonders why TK is bothering with a VLA RFP right now.
Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 34): I guess the schedule is being firmed up. But it would be really surprising to get a major airport done in three years. Just ordering all the materials and equipment alone would be challenging.
The site is chosen and there is a reasonably firm schedule for the opening stages. But I share the caution/skepticism of the above posters, I think for them to pull it off would be an absolute construction marvel along the lines of HKG and I think they will be nearer to 2016 earliest. Being in a very active earthquake zone won't help and will add complexity to the design and construction.
Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 10469 posts, RR: 20 Reply 36, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 9943 times:
Quoting abba (Reply 19): I will be very surprised if an airline such as TK took 748i in as their very first VLA.
I wouldn't be surprised in the least.
Quoting abba (Reply 19): The 748i is no doubt the final and last incarnation of the legendary 747. To take this model - I would say - makes more sense for an airline that already has the 744 such as LH.
Interesting. So are you also saying that airlines should stay away from the A320, A330 and B737 since they all are certainly in their last incarnation?
astuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9138 posts, RR: 96 Reply 37, posted (9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 9946 times:
Quoting CXB77L (Reply 29): Likewise, if they had ordered the A380, it'll have a similar service life, so whichever aircraft they pick, they'll be shopping for its replacement in around 20 years time. Makes no difference, really.
I certainly don't disagree. But if the replacement for their A380's in 15-20 years time could easily be a later version A380, whereas the 747 has by then might have come to a graceful end, it could make a difference in some cases (SQ for example pretty much said as much).
That said, I'm a great believer in the NPV argument for aircraft replacement, as I strongly believe it is the ultimate arbitrator for most airlines. In which case cost factors 20 years down the line are likely to be marginal influences in nearly all cases IMO
Quoting Revelation (Reply 36): So are you also saying that airlines should stay away from the A320, A330 and B737 since they all are certainly in their last incarnation?
In the case of the A330 I think we are indeed starting to see this, and for the same reasons.
It's a bit different in the case of the 737 vs A320, as both are in pretty much the same place - i.e. you're likely to be looking at an all-new replacement in 10 - 20 years time whichever you choose..
PW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 1983 posts, RR: 10 Reply 38, posted (9 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 9568 times:
Quoting astuteman (Reply 37): That said, I'm a great believer in the NPV argument for aircraft replacement, as I strongly believe it is the ultimate arbitrator for most airlines.
While I support your NPV argument, I wonder how that applies to fleet expansion, rather than aircraft replacement? Would lost opportunity also find its way in NPV calculations? Just asking . . .
Rgds,
PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
Turkish350XWB From Switzerland, joined Jan 2009, 429 posts, RR: 0 Reply 39, posted (9 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 9240 times:
As the product always matures at the customer (example A380) never buy sth that has not been on the market for some years. So in 2020 the first fully developed A320s/B737s should be available. Till this date you should buy the fully developed traditional series. My 2 cents...
umit From Turkey, joined May 2009, 120 posts, RR: 3 Reply 40, posted (9 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 8809 times:
I think when we talk about the space on Ataturk airport when the VLA"s' specially 748s come,we should also think about 8 airbus 340s those will be retired
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 41, posted (9 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 8538 times:
Quoting umit (Reply 40): I think when we talk about the space on Ataturk airport when the VLA"s' specially 748s come,we should also think about 8 airbus 340s those will be retired
The A343 is a Code E aircraft with a 60.3m wingspan. The 748i and A388 are Code F aircraft with 68.45m and 79.75m wingspans respectively.
abba From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 1087 posts, RR: 0 Reply 42, posted (9 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 8536 times:
Quoting CXB77L (Reply 29): Whether an aircraft type is in its first or last incarnation is irrelevant.
If it is TK's intention to give EK a run for its money - and if they succeed - they will need to add new VLAs from time to time in the future. And as I do not believe that the 748i will last that long and highly doubt that it will be followed by more incarnations (sure - this is my opinion and you have the right to dream) TK will need to switch type in the foreseeable future and well before their first purchase end its service life. And that might well be before they have reached a size where it makes sense for them to run two types of VLAs side by side.
Indeed they have. It will be interesting to see these plans evolve and seeing them realised.
Quoting astuteman (Reply 37): ut if the replacement for their A380's in 15-20 years time could easily be a later version A380, whereas the 747 has by then might have come to a graceful end, it could make a difference in some cases (SQ for example pretty much said as much).
It could. But I have a feeling, and I have had this feeling for quite some time, that TK will go for the B748i. Especially the much earlier availability, and the lower price tag, are imho the main drivers for this. But I would be happy to be proven wrong on this one, though the B748i is also an excellent choice imho.
columba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 6799 posts, RR: 5 Reply 44, posted (9 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 8447 times:
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 43): It could. But I have a feeling, and I have had this feeling for quite some time, that TK will go for the B748i. Especially the much earlier availability, and the lower price tag, are imho the main drivers for this. But I would be happy to be proven wrong on this one, though the B748i is also an excellent choice imho.
I absolutely agree. The 747-8I seems to me the better fit right now for Turkish but I would not rule out an A380 order in a few years. But for the situation TK is right in right now and what Boeing has to offer with the 747-8I, the 747-8I is the right plane at the moment if they need a VLA.
Maybe they will even order a mix of 747-8Is and 747-8Fs ?
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
Various code E airports approved for 748I operation because 748 is lower end of code F by size. However IST is very short for parking spots, especially for widebodies. According to rumours orders shaped 8 pax + 3 F; even 340 fleet leaves before 748 arrival, there will be enough trouble for ground handling.
But; If we consider about politics, Boeing order may delay or cancel due to some issues about Syria and northern Iraq, at best wait and see...
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 46, posted (9 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 7956 times:
Quoting MeCe (Reply 45): According to rumours orders shaped 8 pax + 3 F
Well if TK wants a freighter larger than their A330-200Fs, Boeing is the only option, so I could see how being able to bundle a 747-8 and 747-8 freighter order could improve Boeing's RFP.
Quoting MeCe (Reply 45): But; If we consider about politics, Boeing order may delay or cancel due to some issues about Syria and northern Iraq, at best wait and see...
Considering the EU and NATO position on this issue, politics should equally affect an A380 order. Ergo, I would expect that politics won't play a role.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11129 posts, RR: 63 Reply 47, posted (9 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 7974 times:
Quoting MeCe (Reply 45): Various code E airports approved for 748I operation because 748 is lower end of code F by size. However IST is very short for parking spots, especially for widebodies.
Yes it's not so much the maneuvering for the 748, it's the parking. IIRC there are 2-3 stands which could be modified to accommodate a VLA, but that would displace 77Ws onto remote stands... when there are barely (if) any remote stands capable of holding a 77W.
N14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2313 posts, RR: 25 Reply 48, posted (9 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7034 times:
And the winner is: .....
................................................. .................................................
................................................. ................................................. nobody!
Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 10469 posts, RR: 20 Reply 49, posted (9 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 6724 times:
Quoting N14AZ (Reply 48): I thought it's worth providing this information provided by Turkish350XWB and tcm in the Turkish Aviation forum
Sorry, I don't read Turkish and Google Translate doesn't do a very good job.
At best it seems to be saying that they are interested in the B787 and/or A350, but are concerned about the risks in both programs.
N14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2313 posts, RR: 25 Reply 50, posted (9 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 6641 times:
Sorry, I thought refereing to the on-going discussion in the Turkish Aviation thread was sufficient. Here is the summary a.net member Turkish350XWB provided in the other thread:
Quote: Guys, i just read an article saying that TK decided not to buy A380/B748I in the near future... Also A350/B787 purchase will not be on the short term agenda. They are looking for more A330s and B777s together with the new generation single aisle aircraft A320NEO and B737MAX...
However, maybe someone can give us some more information about what is written in that article?
The only Turkish words I know are: Problem yok, teschekulör, gün ayden and yak sham lar and of course "esheck!!" (typically screamed loudly while driving car)
tcm From Turkey, joined Jul 2010, 584 posts, RR: 2 Reply 51, posted (9 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 6609 times:
TK will aperantly not order any VLAs and will wait further regarding a decision on ordering B787s/A350s. The article mentions that TK is concerned with the initial problems faced by the B787 program. They also mention that TK would not need VLAs for the moment. Instead they will be looking to order further A330s/77Ws and A320 Neos/737Max.
frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1195 posts, RR: 1 Reply 52, posted (9 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 6571 times:
Quoting tcm (Reply 51): TK will aperantly not order any VLAs and will wait further regarding a decision on ordering B787s/A350s. The article mentions that TK is concerned with the initial problems faced by the B787 program
Didn't they notice the 787 is already in service with NH and JL? Almost seems they're reading articles about the 787 from 2009 or so
Quoting tcm (Reply 51): They also mention that TK would not need VLAs for the moment. Instead they will be looking to order further A330s/77Ws
Earlier I read they didn't need planes of that size but needed bigger ones. Seems they have difficulties making up their minds IMO.
Quoting N14AZ (Reply 50): Here is the summary a.net member Turkish350XWB provided in the other thread:
Quote:Guys, i just read an article saying that TK decided not to buy A380/B748I in the near future
It almost seems to me they've read Plymspotter's comments in this thread, and consequently changed their minds
N14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2313 posts, RR: 25 Reply 53, posted (9 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 6495 times:
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 52): It almost seems to me they've read Plymspotter's comments in this thread, and consequently changed their minds
So we have a culprit for this mess. PYLMSPOTTER!!!! WHAT HAVE YOU DONE!!!
Quoting tcm (Reply 51): TK will [...] will wait further regarding a decision on ordering B787s/A350s.
I always thought they had already ordered the 787. In 2009 I saw a poster in a mall in Tatvan showing a TK 787. Since then I was sure they had made an order for the 787 but obviously I was wrong.
aeroblogger From India, joined Dec 2011, 1363 posts, RR: 0 Reply 54, posted (9 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 6401 times:
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 52): Didn't they notice the 787 is already in service with NH and JL? Almost seems they're reading articles about the 787 from 2009 or so
The recent problems with the GEnx engines have the potential to be very serious. I'm not surprised TK wants to wait it out...
Quoting tcm (Reply 51): They also mention that TK would not need VLAs for the moment.
That much was already clear... So I'm surprised they even bothered to put out an RFP at all.
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phxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 624 posts, RR: 1 Reply 55, posted (9 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5851 times:
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 54): The recent problems with the GEnx engines have the potential to be very serious. I'm not surprised TK wants to wait it out...
All reports out from the NTSB, Boeing, and experts are pointing to a manufacturing flaw and not a design flaw so I don't think it will be that serious.
PW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 1983 posts, RR: 10 Reply 56, posted (9 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5746 times:
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 54): The recent problems with the GEnx engines have the potential to be very serious. I'm not surprised TK wants to wait it ou
They could always opt for RR . . .
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PW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 1983 posts, RR: 10 Reply 57, posted (9 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5681 times:
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 55): All reports out from the NTSB, Boeing, and experts are pointing to a manufacturing flaw and not a design flaw so I don't think it will be that serious
Off course then the question is, how many other engines could be affected, and how do you make sure engines installed on a 787 (ready for delivery) are not affected? That could easily take a couple of weeks or even months to sort out.
PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
ytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1444 posts, RR: 23 Reply 58, posted (9 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4949 times:
This is outside the box but I actually think TK would do better by ditching the 77W and going for a 787-10/747-8 fleet mix, in the long run.
The 787-10 is a perfect replacement for the A330/A340 fleet. The slight size increase would let them offer their 3-class solution while keeping seat counts around 270 seats (give or take). They really don't need the range of the 350 or 777. At least 90% of the world's population and virtually every developed country is within 6000nm of IST. Heck, if Boeing pulls off a bird that can do 5500nm with a full load, even that's good enough for TK. That's probably 80% of the world's population. And really only excludes some of South America, Southeast Asia, Australia and the US West Coast.
And the 748 would let them bump seat counts up to around 400 with their 3-class offering. That's better than the 337 on their 77Ws. The increased range would help fill the gaps of the 787-10 without tacking on as large an increase in the seat count as the A380. They could also start the switchover now (if it's a 1 for 1 basis), and use the aircraft to grow capacity, without a massive growth in fleet size. And then add a few more after the airport move....
Maybe Boeing should chat with TK about trading in those 77Ws.
Not at all - in fact, thinking outside the box is certainly needed for future planning.
For the immediate expansion - I think the TK management makes it clear that they are not going to order any VLA or go to the new generations twins 787/350 right now. So buying more 777/330 for sure.
But I feel that for the long term, 777-X series makes more sense that the 748s as the long-haul product. The size and capability of the 748 will be limited to few routes, whereas a combination of 777-8 and 777-9 should take care of the range and payload requirements for all long-range destinations TK would likely serve. Fleet commonality and TK's 777 expertise would come in handy to train and maintain as well. For the medium range, I agree, 787-10 is a good fit. But TK should opt for a fleet of 787-8 as well for longer thinner routes.
But this would make TK an all-Boeing widebody customer ... so expect an A350 order as well
kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 11955 posts, RR: 37 Reply 60, posted (9 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4585 times:
Pity ... but not really surprised; I was actually surprised that they issued an RFP for a VLA at all, but I think all it has done was to delay an order for a mid-size widebody.
Recent changes in the M/E seem to be working very much to Turkey's advantage, in the sense of making it an even more important political and economic centre - and that can only help TK. If TK is thinking medium to long term - which all airlines must - what is the main impediment to its ability to grow and to be an effective competitor to EK/EY/QR? Airport capacity is the major issue, it would seem; has the Turkish govt given any indication as to when this might happen?
I have always thought that once the 779X was announced, that pretty much put paid to the 747-8I, as much as I'd have liked to see TK fly the 747. The 779X seems a more sensible option for an existing 777 customer. Do they actually need more 77Ws in the medium term? The need to replace A340s would seem to be more urgent. Could more 333s do their work (the newly announced longer range A330s would seem to be able to replace the 340s on most of the routes it flies). Definitely, going forward, the A350-900 would seem like a logical A330-300 replacement and the 788 as a 332 replacement, but it would seem that the proportion of A350s to 787s (and which versions of each) would probably come down to political intervention. So, my guess would be that the 788, A359 and 779X would be pretty much definite, with a combination of other versions of 787s and A350s to be determined.
ytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1444 posts, RR: 23 Reply 61, posted (9 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4460 times:
Quoting ASA (Reply 59): So buying more 777/330 for sure.
Why not lease until 787-10/777X/A350 is available? Buying an aircraft that will be outdated for 80% of its service life seems like a poor decision. At least the 747-8 stands is somewhat updated and stands in a capacity class of its own.
Quoting ASA (Reply 59): The size and capability of the 748 will be limited to few routes, whereas a combination of 777-8 and 777-9 should take care of the range and payload requirements for all long-range destinations TK would likely serve.
Quoting ASA (Reply 59): For the medium range, I agree, 787-10 is a good fit.
For TK, what would be the point of the 777-8? It's marginally more capacity than a 787-10. And given IST's location, the 787-10 isn't just a medium range aircraft. It would be capable of everything short of the US West Coast, South America, Southeast Asia and Australia. Far better, in my opinion, to build the fleet around the 787-10 (a more fuel efficient aircraft) and buy a small sub-fleet of 778s for ULH. Toss in the 747-8s for capacity.
Quoting ASA (Reply 59): But TK should opt for a fleet of 787-8 as well for longer thinner routes.
Maybe. Then again, they might not have too many of those. EK is moving to a future with nothing smaller than an A359 with a fleet heavily skewed to VLAs. TK could be quite comfortable with a lot of 787-10/777X sized aircraft.
leftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 655 posts, RR: 1 Reply 62, posted (9 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4417 times:
Quoting ytz (Reply 61): Maybe. Then again, they might not have too many of those. EK is moving to a future with nothing smaller than an A359 with a fleet heavily skewed to VLAs. TK could be quite comfortable with a lot of 787-10/777X sized aircraft.
Mostly true, but TK serves a lot of secondary markets EK might never be able to venture into. VLAs will never fill up for those. TK will always need the smaller size. It's like EK's Walmart ideology against TK's 7/11
tcm From Turkey, joined Jul 2010, 584 posts, RR: 2 Reply 63, posted (9 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 3885 times:
I have no doubt TK will need VLA capacity in the long term. Let's not forget that TK is still a relatively new operator of 777s. I still remember the questioning of some for the need of 77Ws when TK decided to lease them from 9W. The airport capacity is the more crucial question. They aim to tender the project by October.
It's not crazy but it's a non-starter at present since the 787-10 doesn't exist and isn't offered for sale. Until such time as Boeing makes it available your suggestion can't happen (no matter how sensible it is).
ytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1444 posts, RR: 23 Reply 65, posted (9 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3425 times:
Quoting ER757 (Reply 64): It's not crazy but it's a non-starter at present since the 787-10 doesn't exist and isn't offered for sale. Until such time as Boeing makes it available your suggestion can't happen (no matter how sensible it is).
But surely, most will concur that there's sufficient smoke for there to be some lit kindling somewhere. Boeing executives are openly talking about the aircraft and saying they are talking to airlines about it. Surely, TK is one of those they are talking to.
Looking at their current fleet, you could also substitute 789s in this discussion. I'm suggesting that what they need is a high-medium capacity mix (VLA and 300 seater), not necessarily a hi-lo capacity mix (VLA and 230 seater).
ASA From Bangladesh, joined Dec 2010, 387 posts, RR: 2 Reply 66, posted (9 months 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 2933 times:
Quoting ytz (Reply 65):
But surely, most will concur that there's sufficient smoke for there to be some lit kindling somewhere. Boeing executives are openly talking about the aircraft and saying they are talking to airlines about it. Surely, TK is one of those they are talking to.
I hadn't realized that the 787-10 is still 'on paper'. My bad. Even the design specs and economics have not been finalized. Yes, Boeing officials are talking to all the major airlines and potential customers ... TK among them. But isn't it very unlikely that the 787-10 is in the current 'decision-space' of the TK meetings and fleet plans?
Quoting tcm (Reply 63): I have no doubt TK will need VLA capacity in the long term. Let's not forget that TK is still a relatively new operator of 777s. I still remember the questioning of some for the need of 77Ws when TK decided to lease them from 9W. The airport capacity is the more crucial question. They aim to tender the project by October.
Quoting ytz (Reply 65): Looking at their current fleet, you could also substitute 789s in this discussion. I'm suggesting that what they need is a high-medium capacity mix (VLA and 300 seater), not necessarily a hi-lo capacity mix (VLA and 230 seater).
VLAs eventually - yes. But those are quite a few years out from now and the immediate to short term fleet requirements need to be sorted out.
The 77Ws are already pretty much booked to the sills ... is there any spare to even launch the IAH service? TK also wants to increase capacity to its far-east routes ... NRT, PEK, CAN, etc. And add to that North American expansion ... substituting the A340s ... and more frequencies to LAX,
Tupolev160 From Ukraine, joined Oct 2011, 318 posts, RR: 1 Reply 67, posted (9 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 2260 times:
Also, let's not forget that besides the parking issues, IST runways at only 3000m long remain the biggest problem and they're non-extendable. That's the typical length of runway for secondary-tier airports. They already have operational restrictions with their 77W, especially in summer.
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I know that carriers use mutiple versions of widebody aircraft ie 777,330, 340, 767 but I know that most carriers that have the 747 who are now using the A380 or will be getting the A380 are not or doesn't seem like (IMHO) using them side by side. Singapore phased them all out, EK has none, Malaysia is accelerating the 747 for the A380. BA will soon phase out the 747 for the 777x or the A350. 
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Didn't they notice the 787 is already in service with NH and JL? Almost seems they're reading articles about the 787 from 2009 or so 
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