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NRT-LAX, ICN-LAX Markets Larger Than HKG-LAX. Why?  
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 969 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 8758 times:
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2 questions:

1- Why is the HKG-LAX market lagging behind NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX?

Both NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX offer A380 flights plus several other flights.... Only Cathay flies HKG-LAX. Hong Kong is one of the financial capitals of the world, what's the problem?.


2- Could ICN-LAX catch up to NRT-LAX as far as seats offered? (ICN-LAX seems to be growing)

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinesw733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6324 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 8741 times:

Just one thing to keep in mind:

Hong Kong - Technically 15.8 million, but many of these reside on the Mainland side, which creates some differences and difficulties as it's a completely different immigration system. Also as a result of this, many people going to HKG can only go to HKG since they need a separate visa to get to Szenzhen and the other cities on the Chinese side. HKG itself (as an SAR) is only 7 Million

Tokyo - Metro area of 32.5 million

Seoul - Metro area of 21 million


So there's a big issue - HKG = 7 million (15 at most...very very most), ICN = 21 million, NRT = 32 million. There are many other reasons (they all do have big business connections), but population alone can go a long way to explain capacity.

[Edited 2012-08-02 13:17:49]

User currently offlineCorinthians From United States of America, joined May 2008, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8664 times:

LA has a huge Korean population, which explains the traffic levels on that route. I think Tokyo is more because of connections and NRT is still the main Asian airport people use to transfer throughout Asia. With HKLA has a large Chinese population, but most are not originally from HK. I believe Most Chinese in LA originate from Taiwan. Where does TPE fit on this list?

User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8648 times:

There's also geography - from East Asia to North America, NRT/ICN are much more convenient transit points than HKG.

User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6476 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8646 times:

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
2 questions:

1- Why is the HKG-LAX market lagging behind NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX?

Both NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX offer A380 flights plus several other flights.... Only Cathay flies HKG-LAX. Hong Kong is one of the financial capitals of the world, what's the problem?.


2- Could ICN-LAX catch up to NRT-LAX as far as seats offered? (ICN-LAX seems to be growing)

I guess that the first answer that comes to mind is that the NRT-LAX and ICN-LAX have more people that want to fly the route than HKG-LAX have!!


User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 969 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8632 times:
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Quoting Corinthians (Reply 2):
LA has a large Chinese population, but most are not originally from HK. I believe Most Chinese in LA originate from Taiwan. Where does TPE fit on this list?

this is my assumption:

NRT-LAX
ICN-LAX
TPE-LAX
HKG-LAX

The way things are going, wouldn't surprise me if ICN-LAX passes NRT-LAX.

I find it very interesting that the HKG-LAX market cannot keep up with the others, again keeping in mind that Hong Kong is a major financial center, not to mention the fact that Hong Kong is Cathay Pacific's hub.


User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8562 times:

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 3):

True. But wouldn't SE asia be much more convenient from HKG than from ICN or NRT? Then again maybe there are more passengers going USA-East Asia than USA-SE asia.


User currently offlineredzeppelin From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 598 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8546 times:

Does KE get much feed from Delta on LAX-ICN?


Flown: DL,OS,NZ,UN,VV,NW,AA,UA,HP,TZ,AS,AF,KL,SK,WS,AZ,OK; op by OO,MQ,XJ,9E,G7,EV,QX,RP
User currently offlineSFOA380 From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8533 times:

Quoting g500 (Reply 5):
I find it very interesting that the HKG-LAX market cannot keep up with the others, again keeping in mind that Hong Kong is a major financial center, not to mention the fact that Hong Kong is Cathay Pacific's hub.

What does this have to do with anything? LA is not a major world financial center...


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8376 posts, RR: 7
Reply 9, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8437 times:
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Korea and Japan are bigger local markets to LAX and are east of China, Hong Kong is South of it. Two Korean airline fly daily to Los Angeles as do both Japanesse airlines. Three USA airlines fly to Tokyo but non fly from LAX to ICN. Cathay is the only ailrine from LAX to HKG and it flies 2 or 3 times daily, United has tried it but bombed both times. HKG is a one city deal with no domestic air connections, it does have many to China.

User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 432 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8389 times:

1. Geography - NRT/ICN are situated better geographically as transit hubs for Asia. A significant portion of LAX-Asia traffic is overflown by LAX-HKG

2. Demographics - More ethnic Koreans and Taiwanese in LA

3. Competition - only CX on LAX-HKG...if UA or anyone else added a flight, the local market would be stimulated

Quoting g500 (Reply 5):
this is my assumption:

NRT-LAX
ICN-LAX
TPE-LAX
HKG-LAX

I believe the actual O&Ds are:

ICN-LAX
TPE-LAX
NRT-LAX
HKG-LAX

HKG-SFO is actually a bigger local market size than LAX-HKG. More ethnic and business traffic. IIRC, this is the only transpacific market in the top 10 APAC destinations where SFO's market size is bigger than LAX's



We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25414 posts, RR: 49
Reply 11, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 8312 times:

Why should it be a surprise? Its like asking why is LA-London bigger than Paris?

Lots of good reasons as mentioned above. Ethnic/cultural, commerce, population, tourism etc..

Quoting Tdan (Reply 10):
I believe the actual O&Ds are:

As I posted recently in the SQ SFO A380 thread here were the top Transpac markets by enplanements from LA, and how they stack up versus SFO in 2011.

NRT-LAX - 1,114,251
NRT-SFO - 565,597

SYD-LAX - 1,104,245
SYD-SFO - 301,793

ICN-LAX - 896,055
ICN-SFO - 635,575

TPE-LAX - 894,670
TPE-SFO - 522,709

HKG-LAX - 510,073
HKG-SFO - 891,257


Overtime, Tokyo will likely continue to decline (-30% in 8 years), while Seoul continues to grow(+35% in same 8-years) for example.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 432 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 8203 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):

These are enplanements, correct? I was talking about true O&D market sizes. Of course LAX-NRT is going to be the largest by enplanements because it has the most capacity, but it also consists of a higher percentage of flow traffic than a route like LAX-TPE. Same thing goes for LAX-SYD as in it carries an immense amount of flow traffic that makes up the majority of enplanements.



We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently offlinedfambro From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 327 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 8152 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
HKG-LAX - 510,073
HKG-SFO - 891,257

Thanks for posting that - I was just wondering whether SFO numbers are the reverse order from LAX due to historical immigration patterns. That seems to be the case!


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 14, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 7684 times:

But there are lots of Hong Kong people in LA too

Wonder if UA will restart HKG-LAX


User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 7641 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 6):
True. But wouldn't SE asia be much more convenient from HKG than from ICN or NRT? Then again maybe there are more passengers going USA-East Asia than USA-SE asia.

it should be equal - that's why SQ does both SIN-ICN-SFO and SIN-HKG-SFO

HKG is geographically suited for both Kangaroo Route and SEAsia-NorthAmerica transfers, but ICN/NRT still has the edge. Other than lack of existing routes (i.e. oddball ones like SiemReap), I can't really think of any SE Asian city that is better XYZ-HKG-LAX over XYZ-NRT-LAX.


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7309 times:

ICN and NRT have a lot more connecting traffic coming from LAX to other points in Asia than HKG does.

In the local only market, I bet ICN is larger than NRT. But I might be wrong.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13134 posts, RR: 100
Reply 17, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6811 times:
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Quoting Corinthians (Reply 2):
NRT is still the main Asian airport people use to transfer throughout Asia.

   ICN has grown past NRT as a hub. Mostly due to NRT/HND being split and HND isn't focused on non-Japanese customers (English signs and personal trained to speak English lack a bit at HND).

NRT didn't even make the top 50 airports by passenger traffic in 2011:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's...iest_airports_by_passenger_traffic

I'd be interested to see the stats to PEK and PVG.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 16):
In the local only market, I bet ICN is larger than NRT.

I would bet the opposite even before I saw LAXintl's numbers:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
NRT-LAX - 1,114,251
NRT-SFO - 565,597
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
ICN-LAX - 896,055
ICN-SFO - 635,575
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
TPE-LAX - 894,670
TPE-SFO - 522,709

That surprised me. While I know people flying that route multiple times per year, I expected TPE-LAX to be less than 500,000. I'm glad you posed the numbers.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
Overtime, Tokyo will likely continue to decline (-30% in 8 years), while Seoul continues to grow(+35% in same 8-years) for example.

By that trend, the cross point is in 2 years.
Do you have LAX/SFO to PEK and PVG? Thanks in advance.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 969 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6101 times:
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Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
ICN has grown past NRT as a hub. Mostly due to NRT/HND being split

i think that just might be the reason why ICN seems like a larger market than NRT


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3272 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6008 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
HKG-LAX - 510,073
HKG-SFO - 891,257
Quoting dfambro (Reply 13):

Thanks for posting that - I was just wondering whether SFO numbers are the reverse order from LAX due to historical immigration patterns. That seems to be the case!

I guess we know why SQ is flying an A380 to SFO via HKG now.....



AA AC AQ AS BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OO OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN
User currently offlinemodesto2 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2801 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 5960 times:

I didn't realize that the San Francisco Bay Area has THAT much more HKG traffic. Explains the SQ, CX, and UA service.

User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 21, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 5866 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 14):
Wonder if UA will restart HKG-LAX

Might be a good 787-9 route.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25414 posts, RR: 49
Reply 22, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 5143 times:

For fun, here are some other bits of info to show why Hong Kong is on the lower end of things.

Top Asia/Pacific foreign visitors to Los Angeles 2011.

Australia - 383,000
PRC - 339,000
Japan - 289,000
Korea - 240,000
Taiwan - 156,000

No Hong Kong on the list as its count must be under 100,000 which was the cutoff on the chart.

Top Asian Pacific nationalities in Los Angeles

Korean - 516,501
Chinese - 350,119 (not Taiwanese)
Filipino - 322,110
Japanese - 102,287
Vietnamese - 87,468
Taiwanese - 40,336
Cambodian - 32,125
Thai - 25,014

Again - no Hong Kong in the count.

Quoting Tdan (Reply 12):
These are enplanements, correct? I was talking about true O&D market sizes. Of course LAX-NRT is going to be the largest by enplanements because it has the most capacity, but it also consists of a higher percentage of flow traffic than a route like LAX-TPE. Same thing goes for LAX-SYD as in it carries an immense amount of flow traffic that makes up the majority of enplanements.

Yes its enplanaments. For pure O&D I can get that info probably another time.

But as I recall LAX-ICN is now the larger local market especially now post Korea achieving Visa Waiver Status. Also the local Korean population if 5x that of Japanese for example which drives lots of local trips.
In general Japanese travel is on a decline (LAX-NRT was down 30% last 8-years as I mentioned previously) and still has a high component of transit while Korea is booming (up 35%) in recent years


=



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 432 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 5017 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 22):
Yes its enplanaments. For pure O&D I can get that info probably another time.

But as I recall LAX-ICN is now the larger local market especially now post Korea achieving Visa Waiver Status. Also the local Korean population if 5x that of Japanese for example which drives lots of local trips.
In general Japanese travel is on a decline (LAX-NRT was down 30% last 8-years as I mentioned previously) and still has a high component of transit while Korea is booming (up 35%) in recent years

Thanks for the clarification. You're absolutely correct that the VWP has caused an explosion of growth in Korea-US traffic off of an already very large base. However, even before the VWP, the largest LAX-Asia local O&D market was already LAX-ICN and is followed by LAX-TPE, LAX-NRT then LAX-HKG as I mentioned before.



We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently offlineB2443 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4439 times:

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 3):
There's also geography - from East Asia to North America, NRT/ICN are much more convenient transit points than HKG.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 22):
Top Asia/Pacific foreign visitors to Los Angeles 2011.

Australia - 383,000
PRC - 339,000
Japan - 289,000
Korea - 240,000
Taiwan - 156,000

No Hong Kong on the list as its count must be under 100,000 which was the cutoff on the chart.

Top Asian Pacific nationalities in Los Angeles

Korean - 516,501
Chinese - 350,119 (not Taiwanese)
Filipino - 322,110
Japanese - 102,287
Vietnamese - 87,468
Taiwanese - 40,336
Cambodian - 32,125
Thai - 25,014

The top visitors to LAX are not going thru HK due to the geographics. HK used to be THE gateway for mainland Chinese but HK 's role for that is deminishing by the day as PEK, PVG and even CAN are getting less expensive with shorter travel time.


25 LAXintl : Sorry for the tardy response here you go. PEK-LAX - 214,631 PEK-SFO - 383,756 PVG-LAX - 379,676 PVG-SFO - 225,969 Kinda interesting how PEK and PVG w
26 DarkSnowyNight : Interesting. While I have no doubts about ICN, I have to wonder if Tokyo will really decline that much. That's quite a drop there. Yup. If we're taki
27 Post contains images lightsaber : That it is. When PVG gains additional capacity, I expect it will become a far larger destination from LAX and SFO than it is today. There we have a 7
28 Coal : You'd be surprised how KE covers SE Asia way better than CX/KA. As a matter of fact, CX/KA has very poor coverage in SE Asia, not to mention the equi
29 LAXintl : Well yes its dropped 30% already in last 8-years, and everyone I know also believe the decline will continue. Japan has many factors working against
30 jfk777 : The exchange rate is of no help to American tourists, 78 yen to the Dollar is obsurd. Could you imagine if a British Pound cost 3 USD or a Euro at 4
31 Post contains images mainMAN : Yes please
32 lightsaber : I would add an aging Japanese population that is past its peak travel years as well as significant competition from China for tourist dollars. But pr
33 mogandoCI : I'll add 3 more to this list : 1. invention of 777/330/340 that allowed direct p2p TPAC flights to thinner destinations, bypassing the tranditional h
34 LAXintl : Might not help American's wishing to visit, but s strong yen should be good for the market, as US-Japan tends to skew heavily in favor of Japan point
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