Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
EK And ORD, Too Late?  
User currently offlinenomorerjs From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 461 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8899 times:

EY is established in Chicago, QR has been marketing in Chicago and has recently announced ORD-DOH starting in April '13. Has EK missed the boat (Google Tim Clark / Chicago and he states "the market is there," but EY and QR are there and he is not.) Will EK pull and IAD and be in ORD a few days before EY (in this case QR? Is the market big enough for all three? Can AI survive (now via FRA)? UA and AA seem to have no intent on ORD to the Gulf, is there room for the big 3 on high density 77Ws?

23 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinecipango From Ireland, joined Jul 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8900 times:

Plenty of room for EK. EK have more destinations to connect to through DXB. And of course their aggressive campaigning.

User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3207 posts, RR: 10
Reply 2, posted (2 years 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8879 times:

Quoting cipango (Reply 1):
Plenty of room for EK. EK have more destinations to connect to through DXB. And of course their aggressive campaigning.

And we have a winner. They have the best hub at the other end which gives them a big advantage. Not to mention the more desirable stop over city at the same time. My guess is though they are focusing on their other cities like DFW and SEA etc first because of probably better yields there. We have seen it plenty of times before in Europe, were EK can send the 77W multiple times daily or even the A380 when EY or QR are only sending a 332, and fill it. Or were one of the other two came in first to a city and EK turns up and quickly becomes the favorite. It's the strength of its hub and network.


User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22873 posts, RR: 20
Reply 3, posted (2 years 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8570 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 2):
And we have a winner. They have the best hub at the other end which gives them a big advantage. Not to mention the more desirable stop over city at the same time.

Absolutely right, but we also have to remember that at some point, EK is going to have to be in Chicago because Chicago is too large a city on the global stage for EK to be absent. I really like Seattle, but I can't argue with a straight face that Seattle is more important globally than Chicago. If EK wants to be the carrier of choice for folks connecting through DXB from Asia and Australia, it needs to fly to the cities that those folks want to visit.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineASA From Bangladesh, joined Dec 2010, 725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8453 times:

There is no market too big or too late for EK ... when they feel like coming, they'll come ... and MAKE their market!   

User currently offlineordjoe From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 698 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7387 times:

SEA got it as they EK is the only player. for ORD it is tough to say, in addition to EK and EY you have TK and RJ and all the EU airlines. Asia is well covered and from ORD it quicker to get to OZ through LAX. Never say never, but I am not holding my breath especially with qr coming in. If EK came Wonder if they would use the smaller 77L over the 77W.

User currently offlinehz747300 From Hong Kong, joined Mar 2004, 1660 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7041 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

How about PHX?  

6th largest in the US, no? Why not, they can grab all that PHX/TUS -> DXB to Africa / Middle East, South Asia traffic. A345?

Realistically, EK creates the market in most places. My friend is going home to London for X-mas, and he is getting two B-Class tix for only HK$70k total with taxes on EK. Keeps the planes full, and I bet they still clear breakeven pretty early.



Keep on truckin'...
User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 7, posted (2 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 6918 times:

You are looking at it the wrong way. You see airline x and y serve a certain market and wonder why airline z isn't. It is simply because airline x and y are already there. The more competition an airline faces, the less profitable a certain route will be for it. At the time EY entered the ORD market, I'm sure EK would have liked to serve it too but were short of aircraft to accomodate this, as all of their existing fleet had already been allocated to more profitable markets than ORD.

Joining the round last will put EK at a certain disadvantage in terms of market-exposure compared to its competitors. However, the Emirates brand as a whole is a much bigger name than EY and QR combined; EK serves a lot more destinations at a lot higher frequencies and most importantly, they can just undercut both other carrier's fares. Slight initial disadvantage that can be easily overcome.

Emirates will eventually serve ORD, along with what seems like every other city on earth, but it'll probably take them another year to launch it. With the A388 wing crack fix in full swing, their 77W fleet is over-utilized as it is, new deliveries have already been assigned new missions and older aircraft like the A343 or A345 have outdated cabins for these long routes. Emirates will strengthen in presence in markets it currently dominates by increasing the frequency and it will continue opening up lucrative routes the competition hasn't entered yet. ORD is definitely among them, but due to the limiting factor that is aircraft deliveries it will take some while to materialize. On a sidenote, if I were them I'd probably open DTW before ORD but I doubt that this is going to happen.



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2181 posts, RR: 15
Reply 8, posted (2 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 6886 times:

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
Can AI survive (now via FRA)?

AI is a disaster, and will continue to be as long as it is government-propped. This really isn't breaking news. Then again, on the flip side of the argument, without the support of the GOI, could AI survive on its own? Very debatable question, probably meant for a separate discussion.

Regardless, back to the original topic, I doubt that AI will do anything to their ORD operations unless the entire company goes under, even though it is a heavily loss-making route.

Quoting nomorerjs (Thread starter):
UA and AA seem to have no intent on ORD to the Gulf,

Because there is no need. UA concentrates its Middle East/Africa flights out of its hubs at EWR and IAD, and I think the odds of AA going into that region anytime soon, least of all launching such flights from ORD, stand no chances right now.

The short answer to your question is yes, ORD will be served by all three at some point. Question is not matter of it, but when.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlinejcwr56 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 487 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (2 years 5 days ago) and read 6321 times:

AI is going back to the non stop, so the days via FRA are over. Also, I could see them using the 787 on this route in the event EK enters the market.

As to quote Brazil when they were presenting the 2016 Olympics..."Look at the Map", there's this huge hole in the middle of the U.S. map.

EK has to know in any event taking on UA/LH and AA/BA hub city is something they'll take a close look at. Remember, this is middle America we're taking about. Ask the average flyer and they'll respond Emirates who? The savy business class traveler will know but mom and pop with kids from Peoria...I highly doubt it.

They will have to flood the Midwest with PR and price right. No doubt the 2 Alliances are not going to sit, watch and welcome this carrier with open arms.


User currently offlinejcwr56 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 487 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (2 years 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 5944 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
This is a really stupid comment that makes absolutely zero sense. What kind of generalizing statement is this???????

Head out to the farm lands IA, IL, KS, WI, IN and ask if they've heard of United or American Airlines and then ask if they heard of Emirates. Then the comment isn't as stupid is it appears.

You being a savvy traveler knows who they (EK) are. Most don't in middle America...I just spent 10 days doing a wonderful road trip and over time being ask where you from, what you do and such...it really opened my eyes just how sheltered a good portion of this country is to international air travel.


User currently offlineCricket From India, joined Aug 2005, 2967 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (2 years 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 5880 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 8):
AI is a disaster, and will continue to be as long as it is government-propped.

Fair enough, but EK's american routes would collapse if to save AI, the Government of India got as anal as the Germans and French and restricted EK, EK started with India and survives on India.



A300B2/B4/6R, A313, A319/320/321, A333, A343, A388, 737-2/3/4/7/8/9, 747-3/4, 772/2E/2L/3, E170/190, F70, CR2/7, 146-3,
User currently offlinekngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 401 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (2 years 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 5820 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 9):
Remember, this is middle America we're taking about. Ask the average flyer and they'll respond Emirates who? The savy business class traveler will know but mom and pop with kids from Peoria...I highly doubt it.

And these are not the kind of people that would travel to Asia in the first place. Your generalization of the middle of the country as being uncultured flyover country is offensive. If that is not what you meant then I apologize, but that is what it comes across as.

Chicago has about the same GDP as London and Paris, and is ranked an Alpha+ world city, the same level as Tokyo. To suggest that EK will have trouble with a flight to Chicago because there are a lot of farmers in the midwest is ridiculous.

I don't think EK would have much trouble at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see A380 service on ORD-DXB within 5 years.


User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (2 years 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 5774 times:

Quoting Cricket (Reply 11):
Fair enough, but EK's american routes would collapse if to save AI, the Government of India got as anal as the Germans and French and restricted EK, EK started with India and survives on India.

So Germany offering nearly 50x weekly slots to EK is apparently "anal" and "restrictive" ?


User currently offlineASA From Bangladesh, joined Dec 2010, 725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (2 years 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5715 times:

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 9):
EK has to know in any event taking on UA/LH and AA/BA hub city is something they'll take a close look at. Remember, this is middle America we're taking about. Ask the average flyer and they'll respond Emirates who? The savy business class traveler will know but mom and pop with kids from Peoria...I highly doubt it.

Is the Peoria family even the target demographic for EK in ORD ?!! I highly doubt it.

Their main target will be the huge number of Asians - just like the other US destinations. If you fly EY/EK/QR/TK from any of the US destinations they serve, you'll get the picture. If savvy business travelers already know EK as you say ... then EK's job is already done!  


User currently offlineBasilFawlty From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 1323 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (2 years 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5685 times:

It's not too late, they can step in at a later time then the competition and still make it a success, like they did with DUB for example.


'Every year donkeys and mules kill more people than plane crashes'
User currently offlinesolarflyer22 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Nov 2009, 1042 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (2 years 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 4203 times:

Quoting something (Reply 7):
I'd probably open DTW before ORD but I doubt that this is going to happen.

Bingo! There is a huge Arab population in the DTW area so why not just go there? ORD does make sense as those two hubs have to connect eventually. It's a perfect A380 route but competition could be fierce with UA, LH, QY and AI. I am sure they will make it there but I don't think it will be a cash cow. I do think they are near their fleet capacity until more of those A380s arrive and the wings are fixed. For the next 6 months at least they have to be completely packed. Remember, some of the original 777s for EK are nearing 10 years old and will soon be sub par for them on top of replacing the A34x series.


User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1362 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (2 years 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4155 times:

With large Indian populations in NY, SFO, ORD, LA, DC, and Dallas. It would seem ORD is a good choice for most of the Gulf carriers, who run a good bit of VFR traffic. Room for AI/EY/QR/TK and then EK, hmm could be too crowded. But will be interesting to watch.

User currently offlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1872 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4059 times:

Can't EK gain fifth freedom rights to ORD from somewhere?


Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlinesolarflyer22 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Nov 2009, 1042 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (2 years 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3762 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 18):
Can't EK gain fifth freedom rights to ORD from somewhere?

Probably but it seems like its not used. That would be great though. ORD to latin American and then on to Dubai or somewhere.


User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (2 years 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3405 times:

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 16):

Arent those mainly from levant region and not the Gulf, would they like to back track?


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2181 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (2 years 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3245 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 18):
Can't EK gain fifth freedom rights to ORD from somewhere?
Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 19):
Probably but it seems like its not used. That would be great though. ORD to latin American and then on to Dubai or somewhere.

There's no reason for EK to do this. Why should they care about maintaining any market presence in the ORD-Latin American corridor? Their business model is centered around creating a massive hub-and-spoke network with Dubai as their global transit center. ORD-Latin America is completely out of scope within that context. Such a questionable business decision would be likely result to be very costly and highly unprofitable.

EK's current tag-on routes exist because their aircraft does not have the range capabilities to serve them nonstop from DXB (i.e. CHC and AKL come to mind) and/or they could be linked to other new startup routes in the same geographic region to develop the markets without stretching their fleet (such as DXB-GIG-EZE).

Other than that, EK has no need/interest in venturing into the 5th freedom space. If they want to expand their footprint in Latin America, they can do so without the need to route through ORD, which would involve significant backtracking and require more resources than necessary. Moreover, ORD-Latin American routes are quite long and thin. There's a reason why there is only a single daily flight currently in existence that flies to the entire South American continent (excluding Mexico and Central America) from Chicago.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlineluckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2168 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (2 years 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3153 times:

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 10):
Head out to the farm lands IA, IL, KS, WI, IN and ask if they've heard of United or American Airlines and then ask if they heard of Emirates. Then the comment isn't as stupid is it appears.
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
Moreover, ORD-Latin American routes are quite long and thin. There's a reason why there is only a single daily flight currently in existence that flies to the entire South American continent (excluding Mexico and Central America) from Chicago.

The Latin population in Chicago is overwhelmingly Mexican and Puerto Rican. Unlike other cities there isn't much else, and there aren't a great deal of cultural or business ties between Chicago and South America, yet anyway.


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2181 posts, RR: 15
Reply 23, posted (2 years 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2961 times:

Quoting luckyone (Reply 22):
The Latin population in Chicago is overwhelmingly Mexican and Puerto Rican. Unlike other cities there isn't much else, and there aren't a great deal of cultural or business ties between Chicago and South America, yet anyway.

You are correct that indeed the majority of the Latin American demographic in the city hails from Mexico and Puerto Rico. However, there are plenty of business ties between Chicago and other Latin American countries: virtually every Central and South American nation has a Foreign Consulate General in the City. Of course, such ties aren't enough to warrant consistent business traffic on nonstop flights beyond 1-stop connections via IAH, ATL, MIA, DFW, MEX, PTY, etc.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
QR Or EK At ORD, Who Will Be First? posted Tue Apr 17 2012 17:59:35 by nomorerjs
EK To ORD, Any Update? posted Thu Feb 23 2012 17:25:21 by nomorerjs
I Entered The Aviation Industry 40 Years Too Late posted Mon Oct 10 2011 04:07:12 by airproxx
EK And MIA, A Matter Of When Not If? posted Wed Oct 5 2011 17:58:04 by miaintl
UA-CO To Use UAX Flights Between BWI And ORD? posted Thu Dec 16 2010 02:49:46 by 777fan
AA Adds A Fourth Flight Between DBQ And ORD posted Wed Nov 17 2010 09:59:48 by planespotting
NZ / QF And ORD posted Fri Oct 15 2010 17:20:30 by GlobalCabotage
ORD-LAX And ORD-SFO No More Super 80? posted Mon Apr 26 2010 07:28:44 by American 767
SQ Loads Improving + EK And QR LF posted Wed Feb 17 2010 07:21:35 by yellowtail
MX And ORD, Why So Strong? posted Tue Feb 2 2010 18:39:52 by GlobalCabotage