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ET CEO : Addis Ababa Could Be A Hub Like DXB  
User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1985 posts, RR: 2
Posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 8429 times:

Ethiopian CEO Tewolde Gebremariam says ADD could become a global connecting hub like Dubai.

He also said “Most of the growth [over the next 10-20 years] will come from emerging markets, notably the BRICs [Brazil, Russia, India and China], and if you draw a line between China, India, Africa and Brazil, [Addis] is strategically located right in the middle of the line ”.

Is he a little too optimist with this analysis ?? Or the basis to think that way are really there ? What do you think ??


( More on the interview here :

http://atwonline.com/news/other-headlines/ )

Rgds.
G.


80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinejayeshrulz From India, joined Apr 2007, 1027 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 8391 times:

I think Ethopia needs to upgrade their infrastructure and attract tourism first.
And ofcourse, the current fleet of ET 767's and 757's are in pathetic condition. Trust me, Iran Air Maintains their 747's much better.

Edit. Spell check.

[Edited 2012-08-17 12:43:15]

[Edited 2012-08-17 13:14:30 by srbmod]


Keep flying, because the sky is no limit!
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17278 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8295 times:

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
Is he a little too optimist with this analysis ??

Yes. Ethiopia can never match Dubai's spending on infrastructure, so that's never going to happen. However, ET will be able to serve far more unique destinations and traffic flows than EK can in its current state, which I'd argue is much better than what DXB is doing.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5721 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8198 times:

But does the world NEED another connecting hub like Dubai? I mean, you're talking about an airline/airport with a fleet of 80 something A380s... I'm not even convinced the world NEEDS Dubai's capacity, much less that much over again at ADD!!!

User currently offlineaeroblogger From India, joined Dec 2011, 1363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8166 times:

Not only is ADD's infrastructure terrible compared to DXB, but ADD is also hot and high.


Airports 2012: IXE HYD DEL BLR BOM CCU KNU KTM BKK SIN ICN LAX BUR SFO PHX IAH ORD EWR PHL PVD BOS FRA MUC IST
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17278 posts, RR: 46
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8102 times:

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
Not only is ADD's infrastructure terrible

I don't think it's that bad, especially for Africa--it compares favorably to bits of LHR and CDG.

Quoting jayeshrulz (Reply 1):
and attract tourism first.

Ethiopia is one of my favorite places whereas you couldn't pay me enough to go to DXB, but I think I'm the exception--I don't think Ethiopia has that much tourism potential any time soon.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineblueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3900 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8042 times:
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Dubai built itself up by connecting Old World to Emerging Economies, not by connecting Emerging Economies together, that sort of came as a second thought, and ADD isn't anywhere near as convenient for that purpose...

Having just completed my first trip in the continent that involved more than South Africa, I'd suggest they keep working on their regional infrastructure and network first. Having to use Emirates to fly between Central Africa and South Africa because you missed the thrice-a-week shorter option that the insurance carrier would accept is not fun!



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlineTC957 From UK - England, joined May 2012, 790 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 7795 times:

In his dreams maybe. ET should concentrate on connecting Africa to their network beyond and having a highly efficient smooth passenger experience at ADD to faciltate this. And what about those passengers that want a stopover ? Granted, Ive not been to Addis Abeba but does it compare to Dubai ?? Hmmm...somehow I think not ! No beach for one thing !
And we also now have TK emulating the worldwide hub & spoke system as well, as has been pointed out, another hub really isn't needed.


User currently onlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8156 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 6794 times:

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
Is he a little too optimist with this analysis ?? Or the basis to think that way are really there ? What do you think ??

He's forgetting about this little thing called Altitude   However, DXB is proof enough that if you throw enough money at it anything can happen.


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8840 posts, RR: 75
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 6584 times:

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
Not only is ADD's infrastructure terrible compared to DXB, but ADD is also hot and high.

Where was Singapore 40 years ago, where was DXB 20 years ago ?



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17278 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 6541 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 9):
Where was Singapore 40 years ago, where was DXB 20 years ago ?

Sea level still  And they had infinite funds, compared to ADD



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22679 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 6483 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 8):
He's forgetting about this little thing called Altitude

Does it make that much of a practical difference? We know that various Boeing and Airbus aircraft can do ~7,000 nm routes out of JNB, which is higher. Taking that as the "practical range" ex-ADD, the only inhabited parts of the world not within that range are YVR, New Zealand, the Western half of the United States and Central America.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFlying Belgian From Belgium, joined Jun 2001, 2390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6410 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Geographically it makes indeed A LOT of sense for some very juicy traffic: Africa-Asia/Sub Asia.

But KQ and furthermore TK are also in the starting blocks...



Life is great at 41.000 feet...
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17278 posts, RR: 46
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6370 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 11):
Does it make that much of a practical difference? We know that various Boeing and Airbus aircraft can do ~7,000 nm routes out of JNB, which is higher

JNB is about 2000' lower



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1985 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6151 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 11):
We know that various Boeing and Airbus aircraft can do ~7,000 nm routes out of JNB, which is higher.

Huh ?? ADD elevation is 7.656 ft, JNB elevation is 5.558 ft....that is 2.098 ft lower...
Now, we can get into a large technical conversation comparing the performance of a new ( low-weight ) 787 with two ( new state of art ) engines like the ones ET will have, with the performance of an "old" A340 with four "old" engines and more weight like the ones SAA uses in some of its longest routes, and maybe we can reach the same basic conclusion regarding the routes that ET could fly.

Rgds.
G.



80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
User currently offlineHDA212 From Hong Kong, joined Feb 2012, 11 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5665 times:

Bit of a wishful thinking unless they get some major investments on their infrastructure in ADD

User currently offlinevincewy From Taiwan, joined Oct 2005, 767 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5420 times:

Somewhat related to this topic, what other cities and airlines have the potential of becoming another EK? So far only TK, EY, EK, and QR have truly put money into action, here are is list:

SVO (SU) - SU is getting a lot better now with new A330s and it's between Asia and Europe, they could funnel a lot of traffic through SVO, but the main constraints, based on my observation, are visa requirements and weather (winter).

KBP (VV) - VV isn't known for top-tiered services, perhaps they can focus on backpackers and those who want cheap C/J fares.

AMM (RJ) - IMO RJ can be as good as QR, they have excellent services (including top catering), not sure what went wrong.

CAI (MS) - news coverage of Egypt doesn't help, but it has its own O&D market as backbone.

MCT (WY) - they have different focus, they want to bring people to visit Oman, and remain a boutique carrier with limited network.

SAH (IY) - IY really has potential, they provided a lot of traffic to DAC before the competition circling in. In addition, instability within Yemen has hampered growth of IY. They could have milked and funneled all the traffics to Somalia by providing daily services (not just MGQ, but a few cities north could really use their services) with minimal risks since they are across Gulf of Aden.

KRT (SD) - Throwing politics out of equation, KRT is more suitable as a global hub than ADD. SD's international reputation doesn't help either. Plus there's O&D volume, just look at the metals EK, SV, LH, and KL bring in.

JED/RUH (SV) - Saudi Arabia should've been the biggest market in the Middle East. Besides geography, they already have sheer volumes of O&D from subcontinent and Southeast Asia. Main barriers are visa requirements and religion.

The remaining can be summed up the same way, too close to the epicenter of conflicts for frequent flyers -

BEY (ME - most beautiful livery IMO)
KWI (KU)
BAH (GF)


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3994 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4586 times:

There are about 50 cities in a quadrangle between Tunis, Moscow, Addis Ababa and Kabul with similar ambition.

This is no news.


User currently offlineKFlyer From Sri Lanka, joined Mar 2007, 1226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4430 times:

incitatus, +1
True, the world does not need another such hub, but if ET tries hard they can have their share. In fact, even at present, they seem to be having a better connectivity share than KQ.



The opinions above are solely my own and do not express those of my employers or clients.
User currently offlineETinCaribe From Ethiopia, joined Dec 2009, 721 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4341 times:

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
Ethiopian CEO Tewolde Gebremariam says ADD could become a global connecting hub like Dubai.

Hmmm, I wish no one had noticed this statement  

Ok, so DXB would welcome that fight. But let's give credit to Mr. Tewolde, his aspirational goals are very lofty. ADD will never be another DXB, and I don't think that was his point.

His point (my interpretation of it actually) is that ET needs to compete in the H&S model that the likes of EK operate in. That doesn't mean they will command a large marketshare in that space but they will look to get a small slice to complement the other routes.

For instance, you want to fly GRU-CAN (or any other big city in Asia), according to the Great Circle Mapper, ADD is as good a stopover as DXB/DOH/IST are.


    GRU-CAN: 11164 mi
    GRU-IST-CAN: 11455 mi
    GRU-DXB-CAN: 11219 mi
    GRU-ADD-CAN: 11171 mi
    GRU-NBO-CAN: 11165 mi


So pax out of GRU will now have another option to choose from. How many will pick ET over EK and others, probably fewer but that's ok, this is not nor will it ever be the lion share of ET's rev.

ET's differentiation and competitive advantage are the Africa to Asia routes in which it is the main player (or one of the main players) today. And that is going to grow over time as well, albeit with competition from KQ and also EK/TK/QR and the likes.

What I wish the CEO was more focused on are the secondary markets in Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Korea, etc.) and even more importantly the different hubs in Africa it plans on setting up for better regional coverage. ANd that also happens to be routes in which it will most likely be the only player so can command better yields. Some will be thin routes hence why the CEO is even talking about the BRIC connectivities as complementary revenue stream.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 14):
Now, we can get into a large technical conversation comparing the performance of a new ( low-weight ) 787 with two ( new state of art ) engines like the ones ET will have

Tyre speed is the main limiting factor at ADD. But even then, only North American routes will require a stopover in Europe, all other routes will be nonstop.

Quoting KFlyer (Reply 18):
True, the world does not need another such hub, but if ET tries hard they can have their share. In fact, even at present, they seem to be having a better connectivity share than KQ.

Don't forget that the main attraction of a ADD hub is not the hub itself (ADD is not Paris so doesn't have a drawing power) but rather the fares and convenience in connecting two cities.

Quoting vincewy (Reply 16):
So far only TK, EY, EK, and QR have truly put money into action, here are is list:

Great list. NBO is the big omission there.
I still like ET's chances against the others listed. Again it is ET not ADD that is what would attract customers.


User currently offlinevincewy From Taiwan, joined Oct 2005, 767 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 4302 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 17):
There are about 50 cities in a quadrangle between Tunis, Moscow, Addis Ababa and Kabul with similar ambition.

I beg to differ, those I have mentioned above already have the infrastructure in place, all it takes is a little bit more capital and expansions, perhaps with more liberal visa policies in each respective state. Unlike places in Central Asia such as Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, or Caucuses where it could take decades to develop and open up, BTW, those places have potentials too.

I didn't go as far west as Tunisia, else ALG (AH) would be there too. They already have PEK and YUL in their network and plan to add more cities in North America and Asia (most likely JFK and PVG).

Quoting ETinCaribe (Reply 19):
NBO is the big omission there.

NBO is too far south for any European markets going to other than Africa and Australia, plus elevation is another concern, OK, a little lower than ADD. Nonetheless, if there's any African airlines/city can really grow into a mega hub, it's ET/ADD. ATM their biggest obstacle is perception. When I see check in counters at HKG passengers tend to bring in palettes of goods, perhaps they should consider cargo planes as well.


User currently offlinebestwestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7062 posts, RR: 57
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 4089 times:

Quoting vincewy (Reply 20):
ATM their biggest obstacle is perception.

The gulf carriers always had a good perception - GF in the day was an excellent carrier.



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlinecchan From New Zealand, joined May 2003, 1759 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4046 times:

IMHO before anything happens, ADD airport needs a massive upgrade. There aren't enough seats around during the morning and evening busy hours, and ET's business class lounge is so crowded it is not pleasant at all.

User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3078 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3899 times:

Quoting Flying Belgian (Reply 12):
But KQ and furthermore

I would love to see KQ try and do the same thing, at least ET is allowed to fly to the USA, unlike KQ who is still waiting for things to change so they can land in the USA.

Quoting vincewy (Reply 20):
When I see check in counters at HKG passengers tend to bring in palettes of goods, perhaps they should consider cargo planes as well

Sounds much like check in for just about any PR flight from overseas heading to MNL.



Rule number One, NEVER underestimate the other guys stupidity - In honor of the mayor!
User currently onlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24631 posts, RR: 22
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 3555 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 11):
Quoting airbazar (Reply 8):
He's forgetting about this little thing called Altitude

Does it make that much of a practical difference? We know that various Boeing and Airbus aircraft can do ~7,000 nm routes out of JNB, which is higher. Taking that as the "practical range" ex-ADD, the only inhabited parts of the world not within that range are YVR, New Zealand, the Western half of the United States and Central America.

It makes a difference because from a sea level airport you can carry more payload and use aircraft types that have lower operating costs on those longhaul flights than from an airport that's 7600 ft. above sea level.

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 4):
ADD is also hot and high.

High but I wouldn't consider ADD hot. Climate data I can find shows the average high temperature even in the warmest months is never above the mid-20s C (mid-70s F).


25 Cubsrule : That's correct in the abstract, but a more nuanced analysis is required. Longer ranged aircraft tend to perform better out of hot and high airports (
26 peterinlisbon : Perhaps a route to Sao Paolo would be a good idea. That would connect Brazil to India, China, and Southeast Asia (as well as East Africa). About the e
27 Post contains links and images ETinCaribe : Very true. And the longhaul flights leave in the middle of the night and Addis is cool year around at night. I agree but it is also important to reme
28 Post contains images aeroblogger : Thank you for the correction. In my perception, "Africa" always makes me think hot - it's good to keep in mind that this stereotype doesn't quite hol
29 incitatus : Even little Belgrade, like Addis Ababa, thinks it is going to get on the map, so your list is far too incomplete.
30 cchan : I bought a business class one way ticket from JNB to HKG via ADD on ET, fare was around R8000, and economy was around R6000. With business class just
31 The777Man : ET's future is traffic to/from Africa; not to connect GRU to Asia or the other way around. Traffic to/from Africa is already growing a lot and it will
32 VIDP : There always will be a need and demand for affordable travel it is because of this demand we see EK doing well which about a decade to 15 years ago w
33 cchan : IMHO, in addition to connecting passengers to regional flights within Africa, it wouldn't be difficult for ET to get a slice of Asia-South America an
34 MaverickM11 : They're starting LFWGRU??
35 Post contains links ETinCaribe : Yes, the routing is expected to be ADD-LFW-GRU. See: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...razil-with-sao-paulo-route-372817/
36 KFlyer : With regards to GRU, interesting routing. ADD-LFW on GC distance is 2581mi and LFW-GRU GC is 3811mi. I am not familiar with the Southern Atlantic airw
37 ETinCaribe : I think they could but it will be the 787, unless they change their mind..
38 lightsaber : Article has rolled off the page. Do you have another link? NEED is the wrong word. This is competition. Many would argue DXB wasn't 'needed,' but it
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