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FR To VS: EI DUB-LON Routes / 300 Plane Order  
User currently offlineK900 From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 3 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 14211 times:

Irish Independent reports FR is talking with Virgin about taking over Aer Lingus' DUB-LHR routes to make its takeover of EI more palatable to EU regulators. Also, FR is negotiating a 300 plane order. I'm sure the folks in Seattle and Toulouse are emailing the contact details of their competitors to the guys in Dublin.  http://www.independent.ie/business/i...es-over-london-routes-3203861.html

29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6823 posts, RR: 46
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 14165 times:

Quoting K900 (Thread starter):
I'm sure the folks in Seattle and Toulouse are emailing the contact details of their competitors to the guys in Dublin.

I think Boeing and Airbus have reached an understanding that neither of them will give FR the kind of discounts that they got in 2002. Based on JL's comments, I think that Airbus is even less interested in FR's business than Boeing, and this is somewhat strange. But my money is that Boeing gets this orders, but there will be no more public comments about raping Boeing, because they will not consent to it this time.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineU2380 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2010, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 14120 times:

I personally feel that all the VS short haul rumors/statements are just publicity stunts. SRB certainly knows a thing or two about them.

With regards to the order. I think FR might struggle with the two 'traditional' manufactures. Boeing are in a good position with the MAX and have no reason to succumb to FR's order requirements. Airbus.. I can't see it myself. My personal view is the FR and Airbus relationship is one of list price or nothing, as with Boeing, Airbus aren't exactly hard up for orders of the NEO.

I could see a C-Series or COMAC order though.


User currently offlinekrisyyz From Canada, joined Nov 2004, 1593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 14091 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 1):
I think Boeing and Airbus have reached an understanding that neither of them will give FR the kind of discounts that they got in 2002. Based on JL's comments, I think that Airbus is even less interested in FR's business than Boeing, and this is somewhat strange. But my money is that Boeing gets this orders, but there will be no more public comments about raping Boeing, because they will not consent to it this time.

It will be interesting to see who wins this order. I personally can't see FR splitting the order between Boeing and Airbus as a split fleet will increase their operational costs, but anything can happen. I remember John Leahy saying a few years ago that Airbus is not prepared to give FR the kind of deal that they got from Boeing for the B738 order, the "A32X is a better aircraft after all" he added.

KrisYYZ


User currently offlinePhen From Ireland, joined Oct 2007, 316 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 14073 times:

That article has been discussed in the Irish thread and its trustworthiness is questionable. I would take it with a pinch of salt to be honest - its not very accurate and doesn't sound like the authors have a good grasp of current aviation affairs!

User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19188 posts, RR: 52
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 13530 times:

A while ago now Boeing aaid they had agreed price but gad not agreed ezact terms and delivery times. Needless to say, this was much discussed on A.net.


"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlinebueb0g From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2010, 641 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 12403 times:

Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):

I personally feel that all the VS short haul rumors/statements are just publicity stunts. SRB certainly knows a thing or two about them.

Not just publicity stunts, the new flights were confirmed this morning.



Roger roger, what's our vector, victor?
User currently offlineanstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5160 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 12173 times:

Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):
I personally feel that all the VS short haul rumors/statements are just publicity stunts. SRB certainly knows a thing or two about them.

Well flights are on sale today for LHR-MAN and start as a wet lease in March 2013.


User currently offlinebabybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 11710 times:

I wish VS would give up on the obsession with transporting people to places as they don't seem to be able to do it well.

They posted a massive loss for VS ops and lost the west coast franchise. Evidence would suggest they should concentrate on CD/DVD sales and sports centres.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8276 posts, RR: 7
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 10902 times:
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Stranger things have happenend, it could prove a boom to Virgin. But who would own the slots at LHR with VS flying the route ? Ireland considers these strategic assets to their economy a wants to retain ownership. IS VS going to have to "guarrantee" so many flights for x years " ?

User currently offlinevirgincrew From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2004, 422 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 10734 times:

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
I wish VS would give up on the obsession with transporting people to places as they don't seem to be able to do it well.

They posted a massive loss for VS ops and lost the west coast franchise. Evidence would suggest they should concentrate on CD/DVD sales and sports centres.

   are you serious ?

Yes Virgin Atlantic made a loss this year, but VS are sitting on a lot of cash, also please don't forget they have been profitable for all but 3 of their 28 years.

They lost the West Coast Trains Service because they weren't willing to make an unreasonable bid for the contract. It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.



Hello Beautiful !!!
User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7383 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 9828 times:

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.

Do you have a source for this other than from Branson? It was reported in the Telegraph:

"In his blog, Sir Richard voiced fears that the amount FirstGroup paid will make the contract unprofitable, forcing the Government to take back ownership of the line."

However I can find no report of others suggesting that the bid is "unrealistic".

Certainly First Group is a hugely experienced, successful and profitable public transport operator. It currently operates no less than five UK rail franchises, namely First Great Western, First Scotrail, First Trans Penine Express, First Hull Trains and First Capital Connect. So it has the knowledge and experience to make a successful and totally realistic bid. Note here that it also holds a 25 per cent stake in the Oresund Bridge rail operation between Copenhagen in Denmark and Malmö in Sweden.

Unlike the ABC of Virgin Group with its very diverse operations ranging from Airlines through Banking and Broadband and on to Cola and Cinemas and . . . First Group is a corporation totally focused on public transport provision.

In addition to its rail operations it provides road transportation in Ireland, the UK and North America. In Ireland it operates the bus services from Dublin Airport to the city and to the surrounding area. In the UK it operates no less than 23 local bus companies ranging from First Aberdeen to First York. In the USA and Canada it operates the iconic long distance Greyhound coach services while First Student also provides yellow school busing services throughout the USA and Canada.

Few corporations have First Group's wide range of public transport operations


User currently offlineadg737800 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2008, 62 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 9677 times:

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
They lost the West Coast Trains Service because they weren't willing to make an unreasonable bid for the contract. It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.

Not that I'm a lover of FIrstGroup (I have to use First Capital Connect for my daily commute!), but they will not be using "older trains". Exactly the same train fleet (Pendolinos and the small Voyager fleet) will be used and FirstGroup are even buying additional new ones for Birmingham to Scotland services. First have also said they will be using more sophisticated yield management software that will make better use of existing spare capacity. That could, in actual fact, result in a cut in fares for those buying advance tickets.



Next flights: LCY-EDI-LCY (BA Cityflyer)
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8643 times:

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
They lost the West Coast Trains Service because they weren't willing to make an unreasonable bid for the contract. It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket

No, all price rises have to be approved by the UK government and they retain the right, which they HAVE used in the past to strip an operator of a train licence of they cannot provide the agreed upon service standards.



BV
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30548 posts, RR: 84
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8489 times:
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Quoting SEPilot (Reply 1):
I think Boeing and Airbus have reached an understanding that neither of them will give FR the kind of discounts that they got in 2002

If you want to order a score or two of 737NGs or 737 MAX today, you can expect a similar discount (in terms of percentage) as FR received in 2002.

Heck, WN is said to have paid only $5 million more at time of order today for a 737-8 than what FR paid a decade ago at time of order for a 737-800 (note: that price really only affects the amount of deposit that WN needs to pay - the actual price WN will pay on delivery is $15 million more due to cost escalation clauses).



Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 5):
A while ago now Boeing aaid they had agreed price but gad not agreed esact terms and delivery times.

  

Speculation is that FR wants the ability to flip planes relatively quickly on the open market whereas Boeing doesn't want this because it could impact their ability to sell new-build 737NGs down the road to keep the lines full as they switch over to 737 MAX production.

[Edited 2012-08-21 08:03:03]

User currently offlinegingersnap From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2010, 893 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8455 times:

Quoting adg737800 (Reply 12):
That could, in actual fact, result in a cut in fares for those buying advance tickets.

It is my experience that First Group aren't fans of cutting fares.



Flown on: A306 A319/20/21 A332 B732/3/4/5/7/8 B742/4 B752 B762/3 B772/W C152 E195 F70/100 MD-82 Q400
User currently offlineviscount630 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2005, 235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8102 times:
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Quoting anstar (Reply 7):
Well flights are on sale today for LHR-MAN and start as a wet lease in March 2013.

Where? Looked on the VS booking site for several dates in March and April 2013 and neither MAN or DUB are offered as options from London??



RIP Dan-Air. Where the Secret was SERVICE.
User currently offlineT8KE0FF From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2009, 410 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 7485 times:

Quoting viscount630 (Reply 16):
Where? Looked on the VS booking site for several dates in March and April 2013 and neither MAN or DUB are offered as options from London??

It's bookable online from August 27th.



RJ85 E145 E195 A319 A320 A330 A340 A380 B737 B747 B757 B767 B777 B787 DH4
User currently offlineblueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3919 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 7130 times:
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Quoting Pe@rson (Reply 5):
A while ago now Boeing aaid they had agreed price but gad not agreed ezact terms and delivery times.

At the time, I remember it written the major stumbling block was that Boeing would not allow Ryanair to resell the aircraft as fast as they wanted. I believe Ryanair wanted to be able to resell them after three years and Boeing refused to go below 5 years.

And now, on to trains...

Quoting VV701 (Reply 11):
However I can find no report of others suggesting that the bid is "unrealistic".

I'll look for the URL later, but the FT had an article that did voice quite a bit of concern
-Anticipate only 5% in cost cuts from current franchise, extra revenue to come from traffic growth;
-Growth target very aggressive: 35% more during the franchise (on top of Virgin already doubling it)
-Payments to government backloaded, big payouts due in later years, could be a problem if growth not on target
-Very risky plan, government demanded higher bonds than other franchise winners
-Awarding so many franchises to FirstGroup for such an extended period may discourage unlucky bidders from staying in the market, creating a quasi-monopoly.



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlineKaiTak747 From Switzerland, joined Aug 2012, 157 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6936 times:

Very interesting news... I wonder if Virgin will be able to make this profitable. Any news on A/C type? Could this be the only current widebody domestic service in the UK? If I recall correctly BA no longer sends the 767 to Glasgow.

User currently offlineTC957 From UK - England, joined May 2012, 797 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 6626 times:

VS have announced MAN - LHR 3 x daily with an A319, from next March. Want to fly ABZ & GLA to LHR as well, slots permitting.

User currently offlinewilld From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 237 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 6231 times:

Yep FR are in talks with VS. It has been splashed across the legal press as solicitors acting for FR have confirmed they are in talks with VS.

User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7383 posts, RR: 17
Reply 22, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5362 times:

Quoting virgincrew (Reply 10):
It has already been stated that The First Group made a totally un-realistic bid, which means the prices will rocket and passengers will receive a second rate service on older trains that Virgin offered.

It most certainly does not mean that prices will rocket.

UK rail fares are subsidised by the British tax payer to a total of around £5 billion a year. That is about £80 for every man, woman and child. So average rail fares are strictly controlled by the Department of Transport. Franchise operators may only legally increase fares above the government imposed figure if they also implement balancing increases below the government formula figure or through fare cuts.

The formula is based on the UK Retail Price Index as at the end of the July. The price increases come into effect the following January.

From 1996 to 1998 the increase in rail fares equalled the increase in the RPI.

From 1999 to 2012 the increase formula was amended to the RPI plus one per cent.

From 2013 to at least 2014 the formula was revised for England and Wales (but not Scotland) to RPI plus three per cent.

The RPI in the 12 months to the end of last month increased by an unexpectedly high 3,2 per cent. The Office of National Statistics explained that the most significant driver of this figure was air fares that increased by over 20 per cent. I guess (but certainly do not know or assert) that this figure may be due to a combination of the start of London 2012, and the school holidays an the sudden jump in oil / aviation fuel prices.

It is therefore more than clear that however much First Group paid for the West Coast franchise can have absolutely no impact on average fares.


User currently offlineEagleBoy From Niue, joined Dec 2009, 1794 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4843 times:
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Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):
Boeing are in a good position with the MAX and have no reason to succumb to FR's order requirements.

Currently Boeing have a 1400 backlog of B737 orders (approx 6-7 years) with the MAX EIS of 2017 and already 3 years of orders accrued for it. Unlike the state of play in 2001/2002 when Boeing where looking at mothballing prosuction and furlonging workers.

Quoting U2380 (Reply 2):
Airbus.. I can't see it myself. My personal view is the FR and Airbus relationship is one of list price or nothing,

Airbus have publically hinted at this position. However I'm sure they would take a 300 plane order at 'decent' price. However Airbus too have a long backlog of aircraft ordered.

Does anyone think that VS (with a wet lease operation) would be able to compete on DUB-LON, probably the bbusiset city pair in Europe. EI currently offer 12+ flites per day, even if VS got 6 of these they would be up against the existing EI market share and the recently announced 8 daily BA DUB-LHR flites. This doesn't take into consideration the DUB-LGW, DUB-LCY, DUB-SEN and DUB-LGW flites on offer. (Not sure if anyone does DUB-LTN anymore)


User currently offlinesturmovik From India, joined May 2007, 509 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4537 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 1):
raping Boeing, because they will not consent to it this time.

I thought rape and consent were mutually exclusive ..      



'What's it doing now?'
25 LH121GLA : ABZ & EDI. No mention of GLA.
26 Chimborazo : No, all price rises have to be approved by the UK government and they retain the right, which they HAVE used in the past to strip an operator of a tr
27 VV701 : This is because the ABZ and EDI services are dependent on VS being awarded the slots that BA has to surrender and which must be used on these routes
28 LH121GLA : I am aware of these facts. I was pointing out to an earlier post that VS want to serve ABZ & EDI, not ABZ & GLA.
29 VV701 : Sorry. I should have been more explicit. Once VS had decided to use the three LHR slot pairs they already had to operate a three-times-daily service
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