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Future Of RJ Industry  
User currently offlineleonardoq From Australia, joined Nov 2011, 49 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 8222 times:

With Embraer, Bombardier and now Mitsubishi, Sukhoi, (there are rumours about a chinese regional jet, any other? ) fighting over the regional jets market, wouldn't this particular aircraft market be too crowded?
As we have been seeing in the recent years, the aircraft manufacturing industry is not a place for too many players... is there place for everyone of them?

[Edited 2012-08-26 08:07:47]


JJ, G3, QF, DJ, TG, LA, AR, EY, EK, LH, JQ, VY, TP, TZ, TR, AA
20 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinesrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 8037 times:

We're seeing a repeat of what happened about a decade ago when there was a similarly crowded regional jet market. Back then you had the following manufacturers with designs geared towards the regional jet market:

Bombardier (BRJ-X/CRJ-700/900)
Embraer (E-Jets)
BAE Systems (Avro RJX Program)
Fairchild-Dornier (728/928JET)
Boeing (717-100)

Bombardier shelved the BRJ-X and focused on the stretches of their CRJ family instead and eventually revisited the BRJ-X and relaunched it as the CSeries.

BAE Systems shelved the Avro RJX program in late 2001, and had only garnered a total of 14 orders and 8 options and at the time of cancellation, they had built one production RJX-100 in addition to the RJX-85 and RJX-100 prototypes.

Fairchild-Dornier filed for insolvency in April 2002 and shortly thereafter, LH and GECAS, the largest customers for the 728JET cancelled their orders and that killed the 728/928JET program and with it, Fairchild-Dornier.

Boeing offered the shrink of the 717, the 717-100, which was one of the previously proposed variants MDD had announced when they launched the MD-95 program. It was a design rendered obsolete by the CRJ-700/900 as well as the E-Jets.

Some of the current designs being built or proposed will for the most part be for indigenous use. While the SSJ has garnered orders from outside of Russia (Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Mexico, Italy, and the US [Well by a US-based leasing company.].), the bulk of its' customers will be Russian airlines as well as airlines in countries that were former Soviet Republics. The COMAC ARJ-21 is for the most part aimed for the Chinese market with some sales within Asia.

The MRJ is an interesting one seeing as US carriers have expressed the most interest in it (Trans States has ordered 50 MRJ-90s and SkyWest Holdings has an initial agreement for 100 MRJs, supposedly the MRJ-90.).

Kawasaki also has a proposed airliner based on their XP-1 maritime patrol a/c being built for the Japanese Maritime Defense Force, but the lack of any updates in several years gives the impression the project may never see the light of day.

Embraer's plans are to essentially come out with an updated version of their current E-Jets with new wings and engine instead of developing a new clean sheet design. They're basically taking a page from Bombardier there.

Bombardier, Embraer will likely remain the predominant builders of regional jets with the various other builders grabbing orders here and there. Mitsubishi could likely be the wild card that cuts into the marketshare of Bombardier and Embraer in most markets in the world, including the US and Europe. Sukhoi and COMAC will steal marketshare in SE Asia and the Eurasia from them as well.


User currently offlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6089 posts, RR: 29
Reply 2, posted (2 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 7780 times:
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Quoting srbmod (Reply 1):
(Trans States has ordered 50 MRJ-90s

I saw this MRJ model earlier this month at Trans States training center at STL.

http://i204.photobucket.com/albums/bb309/NWA747/TSAMRJ.jpg

Quoting srbmod (Reply 1):
BAE Systems shelved the Avro RJX program in late 2001, and had only garnered a total of 14 orders and 8 options and at the time of cancellation, they had built one production RJX-100 in addition to the RJX-85 and RJX-100 prototypes.

That RJX is on display at MAN

http://i204.photobucket.com/albums/bb309/NWA747/DTWAMSMAN2378.jpg

The ARJ was the only RJ I ever really enjoyed flying on. I always loved flying NW's RJ out of DTW; there is something special about 4 engines.



My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
User currently offlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1945 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (2 years 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 7707 times:

Quoting srbmod (Reply 1):
Boeing offered the shrink of the 717, the 717-100, which was one of the previously proposed variants MDD had announced when they launched the MD-95 program. It was a design rendered obsolete by the CRJ-700/900 as well as the E-Jets.

IMO, Boeing should've redesigned the wing for the 717, since it basically was a DC-9 wing. The 717 wouldv'e done great in the 100-120 seat market with a new wing and Boeing wouldn't have cut too much into the 737NG.

With that said, from a spotters/enthusiasts view, I hope the RJ goes the way of the Dodo bird. But I find the ERJs comfortable, even better than 737s on some routes. I'd love to see a resurgance of turboprops, which seem to be making a come-back.

Quoting falstaff (Reply 2):
NW's RJ

I have always wanted to fly on one of those, regardless of airline. But I wanted to fly NWs because NW was my childhood airline.



Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6617 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (2 years 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 7534 times:

Quoting falstaff (Reply 2):
The ARJ was the only RJ I ever really enjoyed flying on. I always loved flying NW's RJ out of DTW; there is something special about 4 engines.

I agree about the 4 engines, and it's even better when the plane is used on a short runway. Last year I flew CDG-FLR-CDG on Cityjet and it was fun that at CDG the take-off took a long time with probably flex power, whereas at FLR it was much more powerful.

However 3-3 seating in that thing is horrible.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6089 posts, RR: 29
Reply 5, posted (2 years 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 7508 times:
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Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 3):
But I find the ERJs comfortable, even better than 737s on some routes

I find E-jets rather nice and don't mind flying on them, back when NW (Compass) started flying the E-170 I thought they had the best F seat in NW's domestic product.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 3):
I hope the RJ goes the way of the Dodo bird

I don't know if I would go that far, but I wouldn't mind seeing the CRJ-200 disappear I hate when I have to fly on one of them. I have no problem with the plane itself just the cramped passenger seating!



My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
User currently offlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1945 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 7485 times:

Quoting falstaff (Reply 5):

I was mainly thinking of the CRJ when I typed that lol.



Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlineflyingalex From Germany, joined Jul 2010, 1016 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 7399 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 4):
However 3-3 seating in that thing is horrible.

LX have 2-3 seating on theirs - it's much, much more comfortable that way!



Public service announcement: "It's" = "it is". To indicate posession, write "its." Looks wrong, but it's correct grammar
User currently onlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4814 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (2 years 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 7319 times:

Quoting srbmod (Reply 1):
Fairchild-Dornier filed for insolvency in April 2002 and shortly thereafter, LH and GECAS, the largest customers for the 728JET cancelled their orders and that killed the 728/928JET program and with it, Fairchild-Dornier.

Too bad the prototypes didn't get to fly and were auctioned off for 25,000 and 8,000 euros each.....

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Photo © Philipp Boeck
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Photo © Philipp Boeck


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Photo © Peter Unmuth - VAP


  Imagine cruising aboard a very exclusive jet had both been completed and certified even as "experimentals"...                  



"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2888 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (2 years 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4942 times:
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I actually get excited when I am scheduled to fly a E170-195. For me, and this may be total perception (vs reality) that they have a wonderful feeling of flying smoothly in smooth air and the huge windows help! The E145 or CRJ which are both so cramped and the seats are so uncomfortable, you cant wait to get off. But the E170+ look like a new, modern mainline ac, except smaller and yes F is great.

In NY if you fly United, they have so many sCO 145's (EWR is just covered with them like a carpet around TC) I have to assume given their age that UA must be thinking how to replace them (or their feeder airlines) however what will they replace them with? They also have many sUA CRJ's which I dislike even more. Do they have more E170's coming? Or CSeries?

How many CSeries or EJets are on back order? With EJet factories in China, wouldn't they have a fairly healthy order book? I also see here on A.net so many new EJets for smaller airlines around the world in new liveries it would also lead someone to believe that Embraer are still pumping them out. Yes? No?



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User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1990 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (2 years 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 4084 times:

I think the RJ market will evolved to the 100+ seat class. And anything less than that will be the domain of turboprops. This is why I think BBD made the the right call with the CSeries.

The way fuel prices are going, turbofan service will be a luxury for the less than 100 seat market in a few years. If and when ATR and BBD redesign their turboprops to cater to the 80-100 seat market, they'll kill many of the RJs on the market.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13043 posts, RR: 100
Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 3926 times:
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I see Sukhoi as vulnerable. They are the last to launch with a prior generation engine.

The Bombardier CRJ-7/9/10 will have a very tough time once the MRJ and their own C-series enter the fleet.

Embraer must re-engine their wonderful E-jets. But when?

Quoting falstaff (Reply 2):
I saw this MRJ model earlier this month at Trans States training center at STL.

I'm very excited about the MRJ. It reduces the cost per flight for a 90 seater to that of a 50 seater. IMHO, that will help revive the industry. It doesn't mean the other airframes are done... they just must improve.

Quoting leonardoq (Thread starter):
there are rumours about a chinese regional jet

The ARJ-21 has been botched and sent back to redesign (of the wing). I really do not understand the purpose of the plane other than to jump start Chinese aviation. There is no market niche if China were a truly free market. The E170 matches the ARJ-21 performance and has a proven track record. The MRJ will just eat its market for lunch.

Quoting ytz (Reply 10):
I think the RJ market will evolved to the 100+ seat class. And anything less than that will be the domain of turboprops. This is why I think BBD made the the right call with the CSeries.

To a degree. However, Mitsubishi has found a nice cost niche for the MRJ. I do think turboprops will eat away at most of the smaller RJ market. For if a market doesn't support an MRJ or re-engined E-jet, costs must be severely cut and that means a turboprop. I would be excited to see a Q400 replacement with a CFRP wing (beer can body).   

I wonder if that will be Mitsubishi's next project?  

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offline93Sierra From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 417 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 6 days ago) and read 3750 times:

What about a next generation Saab 2000?

User currently offlinesrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (2 years 6 days ago) and read 3688 times:

Quoting 93Sierra (Reply 12):
What about a next generation Saab 2000?

Saab is out of the commercial business because the Saab 2000 was a flop, especially compared to the Saab 340. When one airline is your predominant customer for the type, that's not a good sign. The a/c came about right as the CRJ-100/200 entering service at a number of regional airlines.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
The Bombardier CRJ-7/9/10 will have a very tough time once the MRJ and their own C-series enter the fleet.

The CSeries really won't have too big of an impact on the CRJ-700NextGen and CRJ-900NextGen due to the scope clauses that cap the number of seats a/c operated by regional affiliates. The CS100 will seat 100 in a 2-class layout, which is well above the seating limits that regional carriers are allowed under the scope clauses at many US airlines. The MRJ is likely to steal marketshare, especially considering the 100 a/c SkyWest has tentatively ordered.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
I see Sukhoi as vulnerable. They are the last to launch with a prior generation engine.

Sukhoi will do fine within the confines of Russia and the various former Soviet Republics even with "older technology" engines.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
Embraer must re-engine their wonderful E-jets. But when?

I would venture to guess that they will probably announce something in time for next year's Paris Air Show. They initially announced last year that they were going to pursue a new engine option as well as wing changes for the E-Jets instead of new clean sheet a/c design.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13043 posts, RR: 100
Reply 14, posted (2 years 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3573 times:
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Quoting srbmod (Reply 13):
The CSeries really won't have too big of an impact on the CRJ-700NextGen and CRJ-900NextGen due to the scope clauses that cap the number of seats a/c operated by regional affiliates.

But the C-series and MRJ will impact the overall economics.

Quoting srbmod (Reply 13):
The MRJ is likely to steal marketshare, especially considering the 100 a/c SkyWest has tentatively ordered.

   That was more than a shot across the bow... T-tails are tougher to re-engine than aircraft with under the wing engines... I think with Bombardier's current engineering demands, if the C-series garners a few more sales, they will focus on the Q-series (e.g., a stretch) and C-series going forward.

Quoting srbmod (Reply 13):
I would venture to guess that they will probably announce something in time for next year's Paris Air Show.

That would be timely.   

Quoting srbmod (Reply 13):
Sukhoi will do fine within the confines of Russia and the various former Soviet Republics even with "older technology" engines.

I would argue, that even under those geographic areas, their sales window is small.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineKDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 155 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (2 years 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3520 times:

I dunno. I think that the Donier 728 and 928, if the company had survived, would have been a real step forward for the regional jet. As I see it now, the turboprops will eat most of the market below 90 seats.

User currently offlinemrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1668 posts, RR: 50
Reply 16, posted (2 years 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 3410 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
I'm very excited about the MRJ. It reduces the cost per flight for a 90 seater to that of a 50 seater.

I highly doubt that will actually happen. Any one of the established manufacturers can make a plane that cuts the cost per flight for a 90 seater to that of a 50 seater - the only probelm is that such designs would not be certifiable. Look for the MRJ to continue gaining weight as design matures - it is an issue for mature airframes, doubly so for those just starting to make their way into the hell of 14 CFR Part 25.

The airplane will deliver improvement, no doubt, but then it is using an engine that outclasses everything out there (for now).


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13043 posts, RR: 100
Reply 17, posted (2 years 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3275 times:
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Quoting mrocktor (Reply 16):
The airplane will deliver improvement, no doubt, but then it is using an engine that outclasses everything out there (for now).

  

Quoting mrocktor (Reply 16):
it is an issue for mature airframes, doubly so for those just starting to make their way into the hell of 14 CFR Part 25.

You make a fair point, and the MRJ costs are highly dependent upon said engine meeting durability, fuel burn, and reliability. Don't worry, I see a bright future for re-engined e-jets. In particular the E190/E195 (stretch?).

Part of the advantage of the MRJ is it is now known what duty the regional jets will see. The CRJ/ERJ both have maintenance costs that are an artifact of utilizing some business jet components (e.g., engines).

I'm less worried about the E-jets. There is a reason their backlog is healthier than the CRJ-7/9/10. With new engines (I hope the GTF), they will do even better.   

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineTod From Denmark, joined Aug 2004, 1725 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (2 years 5 days ago) and read 2909 times:

Quoting mrocktor (Reply 16):
Look for the MRJ to continue gaining weight as design matures - it is an issue for mature airframes, doubly so for those just starting to make their way into the hell of 14 CFR Part 25.

Especially challenging when everything going to and from the FAA is funneled through the JCAB.


User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1990 posts, RR: 24
Reply 19, posted (2 years 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2853 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
To a degree. However, Mitsubishi has found a nice cost niche for the MRJ. I do think turboprops will eat away at most of the smaller RJ market. For if a market doesn't support an MRJ or re-engined E-jet, costs must be severely cut and that means a turboprop. I would be excited to see a Q400 replacement with a CFRP wing (beer can body).

I think the problem with the series isn't so much economics as product (though a super stretched Dash isn't optimal). Narrow seats compared to an E-Jet. All in all, it doesn't make for good, consistent product. When they redesign the Q, they will offer 4-abreast with CSeries seats and a wider aisle. And they can launch it with a 70+ and 90+ seater. The RJ makers will have an interesting fight then.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):
if the C-series garners a few more sales, they will focus on the Q-series (e.g., a stretch) and C-series going forward.

I don't even think this is speculative at this point. I think it is the unanounced game plan. Nobody is really talking about oil prices much because they the global economy still hasn't recovered. When it does and and $200/bbl is the norm, even a Q400 might look wasteful. But an MRJ, E-Jet, CRJ or SSJ? I think they'll be unfeasible. Smart airlines should be loading up on turboprops now or pushing BBD and ATR to build next-gen turboprops that meet their needs, to position themselves for the future.


User currently offlineleonardoq From Australia, joined Nov 2011, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2633 times:

IMO,like said before, Embraer and Bombardier will always be the main players in the RJ market... they already have a consolidated product in the business, i think only MRJ can expect to be a potential competitor.


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