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Bye Bye BA From Australia?  
User currently offlinetonystan From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 1414 posts, RR: 2
Posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 31208 times:

So now that Qantas have finally announced their worst kept secret about their tie up with Emirates it has be concerned about BAs position on the market.

The BA Source website suggests that it could finally mean the end of its operations to Australia. It is a well known fact that the route could not break even on its own and having the flight operated in conjunction with Qantas helped absorb the costs.

What does everyone else think???

I for one will be gutted if it does end but thats purely selfish reasons.


My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
79 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinespiritair97 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 1231 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 31234 times:

I SINCERELY doubt BA will drop Australia. Aren't they both still in OW and codeshare with each other?

User currently offlinetonystan From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 1414 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 31147 times:

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 1):
I SINCERELY doubt BA will drop Australia. Aren't they both still in OW and codeshare with each other?

I hope you are right but the route operates currently under the JSA agreement allowing BA and Qantas to share the revenue. In effect the SIN-SYD legs of the BA flights may aswell be Qantas etc allowing them to absorb any cost which is significant for BA for the additional slug down to OZ. Also the yield from LON-SYD is far less then from SIN-SYD which BA may not be able to achieve without the Qantas marketing.



My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
User currently offlineaussie747 From Australia, joined Aug 2003, 1163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 31096 times:

Yes you will find BA 15/16 with terminate altogether or at least at Singapore come 31MAR13. This will be the last European carrier to fly online to Australia. If not definately by the end of the Northern Summer 2013

Although BA/QF will withdraw from their actual JV agreement and their revenue sharing agreement will no doubt cease.

There has been no definitie agreement yet that they will withdraw their fares allowing both carriers to be used on the one ticket. I guess it will be interesting to see how this pans out.


User currently offlineQFVHOQA From Australia, joined Mar 2012, 417 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 31061 times:

Quoting tonystan (Reply 2):
I hope you are right but the route operates currently under the JSA agreement allowing BA and Qantas to share the revenue. In effect the SIN-SYD legs of the BA flights may aswell be Qantas etc allowing them to absorb any cost which is significant for BA for the additional slug down to OZ. Also the yield from LON-SYD is far less then from SIN-SYD which BA may not be able to achieve without the Qantas marketing.

QF pushes traffic onto BA metal SYD-SIN-LHR by offering lower ticket prices than on its own metal. It seems to suggest that BA's loads are lighter, so without QF funnelling passengers to BA on the route, I can see it getting cut.

With the extra slots at LHR gained from the BD purchase, BA would probably have better uses for the 744. I can see it becoming a LHR-SIN flight instead, possibly even downgrading to a 77E.


User currently offlineEK413 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 4865 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 30975 times:

Quoting aussie747 (Reply 3):

Let's not forget Richard Branson is rubbing his hands at the moment as his carrier will be the last man standing on the LHR-HKG-SYD route...

EK413



Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
User currently offlineanstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5174 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 30119 times:

Quoting aussie747 (Reply 3):
Yes you will find BA 15/16 with terminate altogether or at least at Singapore come 31MAR13. This will be the last European carrier to fly online to Australia.

Last time I checked Virgin Atlantic were a European carrier. I also believe they do quite well on the SYD run so doubt they will drop it. This is a good route where VS can expand outside of LHR (ie HKG-SYD traffic). Given their smaller LHR slot pool it makes sense for them to grow outside LHR (MAN,GLA, HKG etc).


User currently offlinepsimpson From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 317 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 30101 times:

From what i have read, British Airways will continue to operate the BA15/16 LHR-SIN-SYD-SIN-LHR route, but the BA9/10 will only operate LHR-BKK-LHR from late March 2013.

User currently offlinetonystan From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 1414 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 30034 times:

Quoting psimpson (Reply 7):
but the BA9/10 will only operate LHR-BKK-LHR from late March 2013.

This was introduced in February 2012 so has been in effect for over 6 months already.



My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
User currently offlineMANfan From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2010, 61 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 29931 times:

I wouldn't be surprised to see BA start operating to Kuala Lumpur with an onward leg to Sydney, now Malaysian are joining One World.

In time BA 787-9's might be used to Sydney given the smaller loads, either via SIN or KUL, as they will be the smallest hulls with both the range and all 4 classes available.

BA A380s, B744s and/or 777-300ER on higher volume terminating services to the Far East, and the 787's for the smaller through market flights to Australia and possibly a return to New Zealand, although the later will be a lot lower priority than developing a new, but profitable stagegy of maintaining a viable presence in the Australian market.

It will take a couple of years to work through though as the first A380 won't arrive until late 2013 at the earliest, and the 787-9 until 2015. I can't see the 787-8 being used on this sort of route, it's just that bit to small, only 3 class, and there aren't that many on order, compared to the 787-9.

MANfan


User currently offlineSKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1671 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 29902 times:

Well I guess BA can move all its long haul services to T5 now, capacity permitting. No use in keeping any of them at T3 with the JSA ending.

Would be a shame to see BA pull out of SYD but isn't the route via SIN/BKK the shortest? DXB seems a bit of a diversion really.



Next Flights: LGW-SVG (738-DY), SVG-LHR (319-BA), LHR-HKG (388-BA), HKG-SYD (333-CX), SYD-HKG (333-CX), HKG-LHR (388-BA)
User currently offlineTC957 From UK - England, joined May 2012, 811 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 29870 times:

I can see BA pulling SYD. LHR - SYD ties up an aircraft for almost 3 days and with extra slots available at LHR and Willie Walsh's desire to serve China more, surely better use of a 744 can be made operating a new China route or two.

User currently onlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8544 posts, RR: 13
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 29802 times:
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Quoting TC957 (Reply 11):
I can see BA pulling SYD. LHR - SYD ties up an aircraft for almost 3 days and with extra slots available at LHR and Willie Walsh's desire to serve China more, surely better use of a 744 can be made operating a new China route or two.

I tend to agree, sentiment aside ( and there is precious little room for that in business) the UK Australia route is very costly operationally, and probably even more so when the opportunity cost is considered. Those aircraft and crews could surely be used more profitably elsewhere.



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineCamohe From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 48 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 29524 times:

I agree with the consensus here. I will be very sad to see BA exit Australia but commercial realities make it almost certain IMO.

User currently offlineNZ107 From New Zealand, joined Jul 2005, 6407 posts, RR: 38
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 29530 times:

Quoting EK413 (Reply 5):
Let's not forget Richard Branson is rubbing his hands at the moment as his carrier will be the last man standing on the LHR-HKG-SYD route...

Well CX is obviously never going to pull out of there so VS will never have sole rights to LHR-HKG-SYD.


BA can easily continue their codesharing through CX, MH or QF to save them having to go all the way to SYD. Who knows if they'll stay for prestige but they did cut back the flights to SYD last year.



It's all about the destination AND the journey.
User currently offlineual777uk From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 29380 times:

Quoting NZ107 (Reply 14):
Who knows if they'll stay for prestige but they did cut back the flights to SYD last year.

Its a shame to say it but I beleive that BA in SYD days are numbered, with so much history between the UK and Australia it would be a shame but history does not pay the bills. If it were down to prestige BA would also still be flying to AKL so we can assume that sentiment will go out the window early on and business acumen will win through.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 5):
Let's not forget Richard Branson is rubbing his hands at the moment as his carrier will be the last man standing on the LHR-HKG-SYD route...

He might be the last one standing at some time in the future but whether he is the last one standing actually making any money on the route to SYD is another thing altogether....they will know quietly at VS that with the EK/QF decision they are really up against it now with SYD.


User currently offlineNZ107 From New Zealand, joined Jul 2005, 6407 posts, RR: 38
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 29291 times:

Quoting ual777uk (Reply 15):
If it were down to prestige BA would also still be flying to AKL so we can assume that sentiment will go out the window early on and business acumen will win through.

I'd say that's pushing it, considering that they only had 2 flights to SYD anyway.. MEL would probably be 'worth more' than AKL in terms of prestige. The fact that they've held onto SYD many years after everyone pulled out is something.

But they do have good codeshare partners within the OW alliance who can take their loads.



It's all about the destination AND the journey.
User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8440 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 29122 times:

BA's days in Australia are numbered. Wouldn't be surprised if VS follows suit.

User currently offlinencfc99 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 738 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 29030 times:

Quoting tonystan (Thread starter):
I for one will be gutted if it does end but thats purely selfish reasons

Seeing a BA777 in SYD stirred something patriotic in me, to see a union jack tail so far from home even though we'd travelled on VS. Anyone else get this at all?

However, patriotism dosen't equate to profits so, as stated above, the union jack tail in Australia may be coming to an end 


User currently offlineanstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5174 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 28785 times:

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 17):
BA's days in Australia are numbered. Wouldn't be surprised if VS follows suit.

Why would VS follow suit? I believe SYD is profitable for them and allowed them some growth that was not based at LHR (ie HKG-SYD). The recent codeshare with VA would also help with SYD-HKG traffic.

BA on the other hand have a big portfolio of slots and could easily reallocate the widebody somewhere else.


User currently offlineNZ107 From New Zealand, joined Jul 2005, 6407 posts, RR: 38
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 28378 times:

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 18):
Seeing a BA777 in SYD stirred something patriotic in me, to see a union jack tail so far from home even though we'd travelled on VS. Anyone else get this at all?

Opposite for my case - seeing the Koru at LHR was a great feeling.



It's all about the destination AND the journey.
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3204 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 27739 times:

Quoting anstar (Reply 19):
The recent codeshare with VA would also help with SYD-HKG traffic.

That's exactly it. VS have feed at SYD, some wanting to only go as far as Hong Kong that BA won't really have
now QF will be funnily that via DXB. Hong Kong is high O & D in both direction so the combination of that coming in from both London and Sydney and not wanting to travel all the way through should give Virgin Atlantic something BA don't really have.


User currently offlinepsimpson From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 317 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 27504 times:

Quoting tonystan (Reply 8):
This was introduced in February 2012 so has been in effect for over 6 months already.

You are correct tonystan.
I did not realize that the BAW9/10 was already only operating LHR-BKK-LHR.
In that case BA are already only operating 1 daily service to Sydney.


User currently offlineSKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1671 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 27224 times:

The fact of the matter is that BA have a much inferior product to QF and EK on the Oz route. Their economy product is awful although it is slowly improving with the new Y and Y+ seats being rolled out but their business class and first class products are no where near the level found on the QF and EK A380s.

I doubt we'll ever see a BA A380 at SYD as they will be much valuable elsewhere and where the rotation isn't 3-4 days.



Next Flights: LGW-SVG (738-DY), SVG-LHR (319-BA), LHR-HKG (388-BA), HKG-SYD (333-CX), SYD-HKG (333-CX), HKG-LHR (388-BA)
User currently offlinegilesdavies From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 3005 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 27072 times:

I wonder if this could be an opportunity for British Airways and Cathay Pacific to start up some sort of new agreement, seeing as both are in OneWorld?

Both BA and CX have strong links to HKG, and I wonder if BA could form some agreement to feed passengers on to CX's services to Australia.

CX provides connections to five or six destinations in Australia and then rules out the reliance on QF so much to require feeds into SYD for BA.

I don't think CX and BA currently codeshare on the LHR-HKG route. This could be an opportunity for them to align their flights on the route to offer better connections and times frequencies throughout the day.


25 n729pa : As Malaysia Airlines joining the One World Alliance in Spring 2013, this could be the answer a code share with MH and BA use KUL as a hub instead, MH
26 Lufthansa : This is a very good point. But when China Southern sells business class tickets for $4500, literally thousands below what BA charge, that seems to go
27 jfk777 : The reason Qantas is going to Dubai is the connections to almost every corner of Europe. Dubai may not be the most direct route to LHR from Sydney bu
28 BA174 : BAs new F is better than QFs IMO and BA J does have some plus factors over QFs. I doubt BA will remain on the SIN-SYD route for much longer whether i
29 qf002 : My bet is that BA will cut the leg from SIN to SYD, but will continue to pass passengers to QF on codeshares. The integration wouldn't be anything lik
30 Bobloblaw : The whole affair is a testimony to how well EK has trashed fares from Europe to Asia/Australia
31 pesit4a : No, its testament to connecting Europe to Aus with just one stop! There's more to Europe than London!
32 Post contains links and images Stitch : Assuming a four-engine aircraft: LHR-HKG-SYD is very close in path to a hypothetical non-stop LHR-SYD LHR-BKK-SYD is next, followed by LHR-SIN-SYD an
33 Lufthansa : Actually in the premium classes ex Australia EK have always been right up there with Qantas fares. If you wanted bargain basement fares you had to tr
34 jfk777 : But is AA going to fly to Dubai ? I would be for it but Emirates already flies to almost all corners of the USA except Miami and Chicago. I don't see
35 AussieItaliano : I think BA's best bet to serve both Australia and New Zealand will be a JSA with CX. BA might be able to shift its SIN-SYD-SIN to HKG-SYD-HKG so that
36 mysterzip : May this open up possibilities with Cathay? I kind of doubt it myself - CX seems to be just fine doing on its own, but it is possible. Hell, even some
37 FlyCaledonian : From the Qantas press release about the ending of the JBA with British Airways: - Now for Summer 2013 BA could move from the JBA to a codeshare with Q
38 Stitch : BA will have A380s to fill, as well, so I could see definite traffic / load-factor benefits with a BA-MH JBA. A BA-CX JBA via HKG might mean a CX VLA
39 traveler_7 : Perhaps it is a stupid question to ask but I do not understand Why Qantas or Air NZ may serve London with their own metal and BA could not? Regards, S
40 Post contains images bastew : BA pulling out of OZ has been doing the rumour mill within the airline since the day I started 13 years ago. And I can honestly say this is the first
41 FlyCaledonian : Indeed, SYD could have been dropped long before now if it weren't for the fact the JSA required both sides to operate at least one through "kangaroo"
42 Post contains links 135mech : QF & EK Announcement - 10am Aest 6/9/12 (by tayser Sep 5 2012 in Civil Aviation) I know there's another thread, but today is the actual announceme
43 tullamarine : I too believe BA will pull out of Australia, it is really only a token presence in SYD and makes no sense without the JSA. Even BA have admitted, it i
44 Viscount724 : Most EK flights to Australia are 777s. I would much prefer a BA 777 with 9-abreast Y class seating to a cramped EK 777 on such a long flight.
45 EK36 : Agreed and DXB - SYD is a long leg. BA will be gone by March 2013. VS going nowhere for now
46 BA174 : Basically London is a much more lucrative destination for NZ and QF than SYD is for BA who have got better things to do with their aircraft than trun
47 bongodog1964 : I don't believe London is any more lucrative for QF than Australia is for BA. If QF had been doing well on their European routes they would never hav
48 AussieItaliano : I think that the EK partnership was born out of the desire to continue to operate one-stop flights to as many European cities as possible, and the re
49 mdavies06 : If BA cuts SYD whilst VS maintains SYD and launch GRU as had been rumoured, then VS and BA will effectively swap membership in the 'six continents air
50 behramjee : QF currently operate multiple daily flights to SIN from SYD/MEL/BNE/PER put together and yes as a result of the EK alliance most of these might get re
51 MANfan : I disagree with the thought that BA are about to stop operating to Sydney. They have recently downgraded from a double daily 744 and 772, to a single
52 by738 : symbolic means nothing nowadays. It will be dropped quicker than you can say 'vegemite'
53 Viscount724 : The prorate revenue BA gets from that traffic is likely much lower than they can generate by filling those seats with local passengers travelling wit
54 MANfan : We'll see. Remember the 744's are all paid for, and although the round trip to Sydney takes a long time, it includes a long period on the ground in Sy
55 mandala499 : Once you put the airways route structure into it... shortest would be via SIN... Blame the airways structure in China for that. The next shortest wou
56 Airvan00 : For the last couple of months QF1 and QF9 have been, on many days flying over DXB and up the gulf. Maybe its a seasonal thing. At other times on the y
57 707lvr : Talk about the thin end of the wedge. Thank goodness Humpey didn't live to see this disgrace.
58 anstar : I am sure they will more than make up with feed from their new long haul routes. Plus most Aussies would visit more than one european city on their t
59 EK413 : QF couldn't make it happen so how can BA make it happen..??? EK413
60 jumpjets : Indeed they will - lets not forget this is just one BA flight per day. On a seasonal basis flights to many drestinations - MIA/SFO/CPT go up and down
61 qf002 : BA has a far greater opportunity to generate revenue and profit when compared to QF/NZ. This comes down largely to geography -- while BA has literall
62 Richcandy : Hi If QF are sending two A380's a day via DXB to LHR are the majority of their passengers travelling all the way to London? Or are they going to have
63 winglets747 : Contrary to speculation in this thread, BA's SYD service was profitable - not hugely, but profitable. Going forward there are two scenarios: 1. BA see
64 FlyCaledonian : Important point. When BA dropped LHR-SIN-MEL in the mid 2000s the flight was making money. It was just that with the new bilateral with India it was
65 ClassicLover : This happens in the industry a lot - dropping a profitable route and opening an even more profitable one. Something some of the fools on here could w
66 qf002 : It might even be more than one aircraft that they free up. If the loss of QF feed at BKK/HKG means reduced traffic on those routes then we could see
67 FlyCaledonian : For SIN-SYD, maybe nobody. BA may be quite happy to hand that traffic over to QF and SQ, just as QF is handing over SIN-LHR to BA and SQ. Indeed, BA
68 sam1987 : This hasn't been confirmed anywhere. Do you have a source? I'd be very surprised if VS operate to SYD at a profit.
69 aviasian : Does anyone know if something is cooking between BA and Qatar Airways? KC Sim
70 Post contains images RyanairGuru : It's rumored, but nothing's official... QR only fly to MEL and PER - it's my understanding that they can't get SYD frequencies. OK I'll bite and start
71 nickofatlanta : My understanding is that Qatar is allowed to fly to two Australian cities including Sydney. They have mentioned the competitive environment and the S
72 richardw : But would BA and QF still interline at BKK, HKG and SIN?
73 nickofatlanta : Almost certainly yes for interlining - a very common practice for airlines. Less certain is whether they codeshare on these routes. The connection ti
74 qf002 : The difference will be that BA will have to time their flights to work with QF's schedules if they want to send passengers onto Australia on QF servi
75 ZuluAlpha : QF will be dropping the codeshare that it has with BA (as well as the codeshare it has with AF into CDG and CX into FCO and probably the others as we
76 richardw : Could BA operate some peak season flights to SYD with its own metal, if available due to low season reductions at the same period to elsewhere?
77 TC957 : If BA are so dependant on aircraft availability to start new routes as has been suggested here then they could pull the remaining 744's out of VCV sto
78 jfk777 : Other then the 12 A380 and a couple of 77W every year what is the BA long haul fleet plan, if they order today its still years until delivery. Even if
79 traveler_7 : How in this case Virgin Atlantic makes money on the LHR-HKG-SYD flights? Or at least manages to operate rout with own metal?
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