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Will EK+QF Hurts SIN And HKG?  
User currently offlinecx828 From Hong Kong, joined May 2007, 159 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 11145 times:
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As topic, will the joint venture of both EK and QF hurt Changi and HKG and make them a standalone hub for SQ and CX only? As all the QF planes shifted to DXB.

22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5633 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 11057 times:

Quoting cx828 (Thread starter):
As all the QF planes shifted to DXB.

Ummm, no. JQ is going to continue expanding in both markets and QF is making them their two "hubs" to South East and East Asia, respectively.

QF has absolutely no intention of drawing down either market beyond the attrition of LHR bound traffic, and to the contrary has reaffirmed their commitment to the two airports as part of their Asian strategy.

If we count QantasGroup, rather than mainline, then QF are expanding not contracting



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineCX711 From Singapore, joined Jun 2011, 46 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 10774 times:

After the tie-up with EK, will Qantas continue to fly HKG-LHR and SIN-LHR? If not, then I guess BA, SQ and CX will benefit?

User currently offlinenickofatlanta From Australia, joined May 2000, 1488 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 10752 times:

Quoting CX711 (Reply 2):
After the tie-up with EK, will Qantas continue to fly HKG-LHR and SIN-LHR? If not, then I guess BA, SQ and CX will benefit?

QF has not flown HKG-LHR for several months. This has likely benefited NZ and VS as well as BA and CX. BA increased their frequencies by 3(?) weekly flights following the announcement of QF's withdrawal from the route. I suspect the benefit will mostly be seen on the O&D and stopover traffic as most of QF's through traffic to LHR would likely shift to DXB.


User currently offlineZKOJH From China, joined Sep 2004, 1710 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 10718 times:

QF dropped the HKG-LHR last year think it was, and the SIN-LHR is just moving to DXB-LHR, so BA,CX,VS and NZ will all play on this route, and SQ and BA have the Singapore route to themselves.


CZ 787 to AKL can't wait.
User currently offlineCX711 From Singapore, joined Jun 2011, 46 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 10636 times:

Given that QF has flown SIN-LHR for so many decades, it will be quite a 'historic' withdrawal for QF and SIN. It was almost considered as an unmoveable fixture. It shows us how much the world is changing.

User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2987 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 10375 times:

Quoting CX711 (Reply 2):

Not necessarily. QF was always more focused on servicing Australia-Europe than the local SIN-LHR market, so I doubt that there will be much local traffic left behind up with this move. I'm not sure about FRA, but that's re I imagine SQ (and LH) might pick up some traffic -- it won't be all that much though, if the reports of a lot of traffic going elsewhere from FRA are true.

If anything, BA might find itself having to drop capacity with the loss of QF Group's support in SIN. And I think that there's a good chance that they will drop the additional 3 weekly HKG service which was designed to replace QF29/30 -- QF retimed pretty much all their flights to support BA services in HKG.


User currently offlinejumpjets From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2012, 838 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 10261 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 6):
And I think that there's a good chance that they will drop the additional 3 weekly HKG service which was designed to replace QF29/30

The extra three flights have a short but chequered history. Back in May 2012 they were temporarily suspended and as of today are still not operating. However the flight timetable for October has them back again - only to disappear at the start of the winter season.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8391 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 9946 times:
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Quoting qf002 (Reply 6):
necessarily. QF was always more focused on servicing Australia-Europe than the local SIN-LHR market, so I doubt that there will be much local traffic left behind up with this move. I'm not sure about FRA, but that's re I imagine SQ (and LH) might pick up some traffic -- it won't be all that much though, if the reports of a lot of traffic going elsewhere from FRA are true.

FRA to Singapore is a Star hub to Star Hub served well by multiple daily SQ flight including A380 and a daily LH flight. Qantas was the minor player on the route.

LHR to Singapore has 3 SQ A380's and 2 BA flights, QF had 2 A380's and they have been stopping SIN for a long time. QF picked up a few passengers but its a BA & SQ route to split.


User currently offlinecheeken From Singapore, joined Feb 2010, 82 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5388 times:

Let's not forget that SIN-LHR is also fed by QF flights coming from BNE, PER, MEL and ADL, and not just additions from SIN alone. QF loyal customers coming from these cities will not see reason to stopover in SIN anymore!

User currently offlineAF185 From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2012, 259 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5302 times:

I am also wondering what is going to happen to the AF-QF codeshare on the CDG-Australia routes, stopping over in SIN and HKG. I guess this codeshare is going to end in favor of EK and DXB?

User currently offlineHKG212 From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2008, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5096 times:

Quoting cheeken (Reply 9):
Let's not forget that SIN-LHR is also fed by QF flights coming from BNE, PER, MEL and ADL, and not just additions from SIN alone. QF loyal customers coming from these cities will not see reason to stopover in SIN anymore!

   Exactly the point here. This will be a blow to SIN as an intercontinental QF hub. Passengers loyal to QF will now fly to LHR via DXB. These are not insignificant numbers.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 1):
Ummm, no. JQ is going to continue expanding in both markets and QF is making them their two "hubs" to South East and East Asia, respectively.

Indeed JQ will continue to expand in SIN, offsetting the mainline loss, which may be a more appropriate role for Changi given its geographical location.

With regards to HKG, as others have noted here QF has dropped HKG-LHR earlier this year, and now the on again/off again BA replacement will also likely be dropped with the termination of code sharing. Still, as long as QF remains in OW, HKG will remain an attractive transit hub for its frequent travellers, with CX/KA offering plenty of connectivity options to Europe as well as many destinations in China and around Asia. So the likely impact on HKG is probably negligible, especially considering that CX operates far more services to Australia than QF to begin with. In fact, CX may well further gain market share on Australia-Europe routes as a result.

The plan to establish a JQ "hub" at HKG with MU, btw, is still pending, and IMHO highly unlikely to gain any traction even if the authorities approve of the operation. I see very little commercial sense in it.


User currently offline6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3329 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5002 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 6):
Not necessarily. QF was always more focused on servicing Australia-Europe than the local SIN-LHR market, so I doubt that there will be much local traffic left behind up with this move. I'm not sure about FRA, but that's re I imagine SQ (and LH) might pick up some traffic -- it won't be all that much though, if the reports of a lot of traffic going elsewhere from FRA are tru

Not entirely accurate. I'm guessing QF chose SIN as their LCC hub with Jetstar on the basis that it could move it's own pax around ina growing region.

London to Phuket?? - no problem... QF onto JQ.
Adelaide to BKK - no problem, QF onto JQ etc

so the shift away IS significant, and in my view will need to be bolstered to support JQ/3K

(note that use of JQ/3K covers off all Jetstar franchises)


User currently offlineCX711 From Singapore, joined Jun 2011, 46 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 4983 times:

Quoting cheeken (Reply 9):
Let's not forget that SIN-LHR is also fed by QF flights coming from BNE, PER, MEL and ADL, and not just additions from SIN alone. QF loyal customers coming from these cities will not see reason to stopover in SIN anymore!

My impression is that Singapore worked very hard to establish SIN as a transfer hub for QF, eg facilitating the setting up of Jetstar Asia. The competition then was with BKK as the major hub for QF. I believe currently QF is the 2nd largest operator in SIN after SQ. Singapore will now have to start again to replace that traffic either with Jetstar or other carriers.

Is it conceivable that the QF-EK link will lead EK build up a large hub in SIN?


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5633 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4687 times:

Quoting HKG212 (Reply 11):
I see very little commercial sense in it.

Why's that? An well-funded LCC with heavy hitting backers and international recognition to fly from HK to Mainland China looks (to me at least) precisely like what needed to break the CX/KA quasi-monopoly over HK-PRC taffick



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4667 times:

Quoting AF185 (Reply 10):
I am also wondering what is going to happen to the AF-QF codeshare on the CDG-Australia routes,

Yes, it was announced that QF is ending its codeshare agreement with AF on 31 March 2013.

While QF announced that the flights to Europe via SIN would end, they also announced that there would be increased capacity to SIN with timings adjusted to facilitate connectivity to other parts of Asia. QF has also stated that it will continue to offer a range of options with codeshare partners for passengers who desire to stopover in Asia on their way to Europe. I imagine those options would include the continuing arrangement with AY.


User currently offlinecheeken From Singapore, joined Feb 2010, 82 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4506 times:

Quoting CX711 (Reply 13):
Is it conceivable that the QF-EK link will lead EK build up a large hub in SIN?

DXB itself is already a hub, and unless DXB is one of your O&D stops,, using SIN hub would mean doing a two stop flight, which is what EK is trying to beat with their one-stop advantage in linking AU and EU, I wouldn't think they'd set SIN as a huge hub, at most only to compete on a few other lucrative routes out of SIN like what they're doing with MEL and BNE, nothing more...


User currently offlineHKG212 From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2008, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4476 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
Why's that? An well-funded LCC with heavy hitting backers and international recognition to fly from HK to Mainland China looks (to me at least) precisely like what needed to break the CX/KA quasi-monopoly over HK-PRC taffick

First of all, the HK authorities have not given the airline the go-ahead as neither stakeholder is based in HK. Most important, HKG does not have budget facilities or a discount pricing structure which would suit an LCC hub. LCC facilities are not included in HKG's expansion plans either. It is hard to see how you can turn a profit operating an LCC out of a hub like this.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5473 posts, RR: 30
Reply 18, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 3670 times:

EK is primarily a hub and if you're going to do one stop, it really doesn't matter where that stop is. The great circle mapper indicates that the distance from LHR-SYD, via DXB, SIN and HKG have a maximum range spread of around 400 miles.

From FRA, the difference is around 200 miles, so for trips from Europe to australia, there isn't much of a difference in distance to hub at any of them.

I think eventually the concept of the 787 and the 350 being hub busters will come into its own. Point to point will never kill one stops in hubs but it should cut into it a bit.



What the...?
User currently offline6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3329 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3369 times:

Quoting CX711 (Reply 13):
Is it conceivable that the QF-EK link will lead EK build up a large hub in SIN?

they already fly DXB-SIN 4 times daily, with 2 of those flights continuing onto BNE and MEL.
so i don;'t see why EK wouldn't continue to feed traffic via these ports, especially if QF connections worked from other parts of Australia.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2987 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3335 times:

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 19):

And I wouldn't be overly surprised to see EK open DXB-SIN-AKL, replacing JQ on the route...

EK is well positioned to access feed from smaller Asian destinations in SIN so I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent amount of growth in their ops there, leaving JQ to use those 787's on Australian and regional flights rather than doing the proper long haul thing...


User currently offline6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3329 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (2 years 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2724 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 20):
And I wouldn't be overly surprised to see EK open DXB-SIN-AKL, replacing JQ on the route...

what about DXB-AKL via CNS or DRW?


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13163 posts, RR: 100
Reply 22, posted (2 years 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2676 times:
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I worry about neither SIN nor HKG. Both will find options to grow. More Asia centric, but is that a bad thing?

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
Quoting HKG212 (Reply 11):
I see very little commercial sense in it.

Why's that? An well-funded LCC with heavy hitting backers and international recognition to fly from HK to Mainland China looks (to me at least) precisely like what needed to break the CX/KA quasi-monopoly over HK-PRC taffick

My thoughts too. A 2nd JQ hub in HKG has high potential in my mind. Why wouldn't it do well? CX hasn't played nice in OneWorld, a JQ HKG hub will open up China to quite a few destinations with excellent local and Taiwanese feed.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 18):
I think eventually the concept of the 787 and the 350 being hub busters will come into its own. Point to point will never kill one stops in hubs but it should cut into it a bit.

I see 95%+ of 787/A350 flights having a hub on at least one end of the flight. I see them more as 'hub expanders." In particular as European hubs lack sufficient expansion, the hubbing for secondary European cities will be done elsewhere. EK will use the A350 and QR the 787.

CX with the A350 and SQ with the 787. It will be a competition of service, fares, convenience, and connections. I see us having this debate on a.net for YEARS to come.      

Lightsaber



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