Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
OAG Changes 9/21/2012: DL/F9/UA/WG  
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10906 times:

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3E BRL-ORD OCT 0>1.5
3E BRL-STL OCT 0>1.5
3E DEC-ORD OCT 0>3 NOV 1.8>3
3E DEC-STL OCT 0>3 NOV 1.8>3
3E JBR-STL OCT 0>3 NOV 1.7>3

AA MIA-GRU APR 3>4 MAY 3>4

AC DCA-YUL NOV 3>2 DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2 APR 3>2
AC DEN-YYZ OCT 2>1.9

AF IAD-CDG OCT 1.1>1.5

AR MIA-EZE DEC 2>1.8

AS BLI-OGG APR 0.3>0.1
Wow, that's kind of surprising given that the taxes are so much more from SAN than TIJ.
*AS SAN-SJD MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2

AZ JFK-FCO FEB 2>1.9

I think B6 would be doing BOS-LGA right now if they had enough slots to have a decent pattern.
*B6 BOS-EWR NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 FEB 4>5 MAR 4>5 APR 4>5
B6 LGA-PBI MAR 2>3 APR 2>3
B6 MCO-NAS JAN 1.2>1.1

BB SJU-STT OCT 0.8>3 NOV 0.9>3 DEC 0.9>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
BB SJU-STX OCT 0.9>4 NOV 0.9>4 DEC 0.8>4 JAN 0>4 FEB 0>4 MAR 0>4 APR 0>4 MAY 0>4
BB SJU-VQS OCT 0.3>0 NOV 0.3>0 DEC 0.3>0
BB STT-SJU OCT 0.8>4 NOV 0.9>4 DEC 0.8>4 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
BB STT-STX OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4 JAN 0>1.9 FEB 0>1.9 MAR 0>1.8 APR 0>1.9 MAY 0>1.9
BB STX-SJU OCT 1.0>4 NOV 1.0>4 DEC 1.0>4 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3
BB STX-VQS OCT 0.3>0 NOV 0.3>0 DEC 0.3>0
BB VQS-SJU OCT 0.3>0 NOV 0.3>0 DEC 0.3>0

BW JFK-GEO OCT 0>0.4

CA SPN-PEK APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0

DL ATL-MEI OCT 1.9>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.8>0 JAN 2>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 1.9>0
DL BDL-RDU JAN 0.9>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7 MAR 1.0>0.7 APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7
DL BOS-ORF MAR 1.8>1.4
The modern day gold rush continues.
*DL ISN-MSP NOV 0>1.2 DEC 0>1.9 JAN 0>1.9 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2
DL LGA-PHL NOV 0.3>0.2
This stuff is probably not unexpected, but it's another 6 departures out of MEM.
DL MEM-GLH OCT 1.7>0.0 NOV 1.6>0 DEC 1.3>0 JAN 1.5>0 FEB 1.6>0 MAR 1.5>0 APR 1.6>0 MAY 1.6>0
DL MEM-PIB OCT 1.7>0 NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0
DL MEM-TUP OCT 1.7>0 NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0
DL MSL-TUP OCT 1.7>0.0 NOV 1.6>0 DEC 1.3>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0

EI BOS-DUB APR 1.7>1.8 MAY 1.7>1.9

I'll remark on this below, but I think F9 won't be "hubbing" in DEN much longer.
*F9 DEN-CAK JAN 1.2>0.4 FEB 1.0>0
*F9 DEN-PHL JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-PVU JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-SDF JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-SMF JAN 1.1>0.4 FEB 0.9>0

FI BOS-KEF MAY 1.2>1.3

JQ HNL-SYD JAN 0.9>1.0

KX MIA-GCM DEC 3>2.0 FEB 3>2 MAR 3>2 APR 3>2
KX TPA-GCM JAN 0.7>0.3 FEB 0.7>0 MAR 0.7>0.5

LI SJU-EIS OCT 1.4>1.3 NOV 1.4>1.0

These are both now loaded as 787s
LO JFK-WAW APR 0.6>1.2 MAY 0.6>1.2
LO ORD-WAW APR 0.9>1.1 MAY 1.1>1.3

MW HNL-MKK OCT 6>7
MW MKK-HNL OCT 6>7

OZ EWR-SEA DEC 0.1>0.0
OZ LAS-LAX JAN 0>0.9
OZ LAX-PHL DEC 0.5>0.4
OZ SPN-KIX DEC 0.5>0.3

P1 MBL-MDW OCT 1.6>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>0.7

PD BTV-YTZ DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.5 FEB 0>0.6 MAR 0>0.6 APR 0>0.2

QF HNL-MEL JAN 0>0.2 FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.1

SE JFK-CDG MAY 0.1>0.3

TS FLL-YUL JAN 0.4>0.5

UA EWR-GRR JAN 1.7>3
UA EWR-IND JAN 5>6
UA EWR-MEM JAN 1.8>3
UA EWR-PWM JAN 4>5
UA EYW-FLL OCT 4>2 NOV 5>2 DEC 5>2 JAN 5>2 FEB 5>2 MAR 5>2 APR 5>2 MAY 5>2
UA EYW-TPA OCT 5>4 NOV 6>4 DEC 7>4 JAN 6>4 FEB 6>4 MAR 7>4 APR 6>4 MAY 6>4
UA FLL-BIM OCT 1.3>0.8 NOV 2>0.9 DEC 2>0.9 JAN 2>0.8 FEB 2>0.9 MAR 2>0.9 APR 2>0.8 MAY 2>0.9
UA FLL-ELH OCT 1.3>1.0 NOV 2>1.0 DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 2>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
UA FLL-FPO OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
UA FLL-GGT NOV 1.3>1.0 DEC 1.3>1.0 JAN 1.3>1.0 FEB 1.3>1.0 MAR 1.3>1.0 APR 1.3>1.0 MAY 1.3>1.0
UA FLL-GHB OCT 0.3>0.7 NOV 1.1>0.7 DEC 1.2>0.7 JAN 1.1>0.7 FEB 1.1>0.7 MAR 1.2>0.7 APR 1.1>0.7 MAY 1.1>0.7
UA FLL-GNV OCT 1.1>0.5 NOV 1.0>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.5 JAN 1.0>0.4 FEB 1.0>0.4 MAR 1.0>0.4 APR 1.0>0.4 MAY 1.0>0.4
UA FLL-MHH OCT 1.6>1.0 NOV 3>1.0 DEC 3>1.0 JAN 3>1.0 FEB 3>1.0 MAR 3>1.0 APR 3>1.0 MAY 3>1.0
UA FLL-TCB NOV 1.3>1.0 DEC 1.3>1.0 JAN 1.3>1.0 FEB 1.3>1.0 MAR 1.3>1.0 APR 1.3>1.0 MAY 1.3>1.0
UA FLL-TPA NOV 1.0>3 DEC 1.0>3 JAN 1.0>3 FEB 1.0>3 MAR 1.0>3 APR 1.0>3 MAY 1.0>3
UA GNV-MCO OCT 1.0>0.2 NOV 1.0>0.1 DEC 1.0>0.2 JAN 1.0>0.1 FEB 1.0>0.1 MAR 1.0>0.1 APR 1.0>0.2 MAY 1.0>0.1
UA GNV-TPA OCT 1.0>1.7 NOV 1.0>1.7 DEC 1.0>1.7 JAN 1.0>1.7 FEB 1.0>1.7 MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>1.7
UA IAH-YUL MAR 0.9>1.0
UA MCO-PNS OCT 3>1.7 NOV 3>1.7 DEC 3>1.7 JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.7 MAR 3>1.7 APR 3>1.7 MAY 3>1.7
UA ORD-ALB JAN 5>3
UA ORD-PBI MAR 0>1.0
UA ORD-YVR JAN 1.9>3
UA PBI-MHH NOV 1.3>1.0 DEC 1.3>1.0 JAN 1.3>1.0 FEB 1.3>1.0 MAR 1.3>1.0 APR 1.3>1.0 MAY 1.3>1.0
UA PNS-TPA OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3 MAR 4>3 APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
UA SFO-EWR JAN 7>8

US CLT-HHH DEC 7>6
US CLT-YUL DEC 2.0>1.3

UX JFK-MAD DEC 0.6>0.5 MAR 0.2>0.1 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0

They did this stuff last year didn't they? I wonder why they load it for sale so late?
WG FLL-YQB DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.1
WG FLL-YUL DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.6 FEB 0>0.6 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.1
WG FLL-YYZ NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.5 JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.5 APR 0>0.4
WG LAS-YYZ NOV 0>0.6 DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3
WG MCO-YHZ FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.1 APR 0>0.1
WG MCO-YOW JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.2
WG MCO-YYZ NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.7 JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.3
WG PIE-YYZ NOV 0>0.1 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.2

WP HNL-JHM NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5 JAN 6>5 FEB 6>5 MAR 6>5 APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
WP HNL-MKK OCT 5>6 NOV 5>6 DEC 5>6 JAN 5>6 FEB 5>6 MAR 5>6 APR 5>6 MAY 5>6
WP MKK-HNL OCT 4>5
WP MKK-JHM OCT 0>0.2 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
WP MKK-OGG OCT 2>0.8
WP OGG-HNL OCT 1.5>1.3
WP OGG-MKK OCT 2>1.0

41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10858 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 DEN-CAK JAN 1.2>0.4 FEB 1.0>0
*F9 DEN-PHL JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-PVU JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-SDF JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-SMF JAN 1.1>0.4 FEB 0.9>0
OK, here's my problem with this. DEN isn't MCO. I keep saying this. They can't fly to places like PHF and MOT without a "hub". DEN's local market isn't big enough. PHL/SDF/SMF and kind of CLE (since CAK was really 14/wk and CLE will be 4/wk) are all pretty major connect cities. They are really burning the deck chairs in DEN. I wonder if they are officially beginning a migration of the company out of Denver? They will never be sold to anybody (except WN/UA) as a DEN hubbing airline.

What may eventually happen as they exit the major cities from DEN and increase the proportion of subsidy driven junk markets is that passengers fly them to DEN and then tote their bags over to WN to connect. That doesn't even work very well because WN won't interline.

The management is trying to turn them into Allegiant and it might work, but DEN is proving more and more incompatible with the concept.

Here are the % Connect by market for F9 out of DEN from DB1B/T100 1Q2012 (most recent)

ABQ 49%
ASE 88%
ATL 56%
AUS 38%
BIL 72%
BKG 52%
BNA 55%
BOS 34%
BZN 71%
CAK 63%
COS 97%
DAY 62%
DCA 26%
DFW 42%
DRO 49%
DSM 59%
DTW 73%
FLL 23%
FSD 55%
GEG 73%
GRR 54%
HDN 96%
HOU 25%
ICT 69%
IND 58%
LAS 56%
LAX 55%
LGA 29%
LIT 35%
MCI 56%
MCO 39%
MDW 35%
MKE 63%
MSN 63%
MSP 69%
MSY 49%
OKC 54%
OMA 58%
PDX 64%
PHF 28%
PHL 53%
PHX 49%
PSP 45%
PVR 8%
PVU 55%
RFD 30%
RSW 15%
SAN 60%
SAT 42%
SBA 35%
SDF 47%
SEA 67%
SFO 55%
SLC 70%
SMF 75%
SNA 43%
STL 48%
TPA 45%
TUS 57%
TYS 41%

[Edited 2012-09-18 06:20:30]

[Edited 2012-09-18 06:21:40]

User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10729 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
OK, here's my problem with this. DEN isn't MCO. I keep saying this. They can't fly to places like PHF and MOT without a "hub". DEN's local market isn't big enough.

Agreed

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
What may eventually happen as they exit the major cities from DEN and increase the proportion of subsidy driven junk markets is that passengers fly them to DEN and then tote their bags over to WN to connect. That doesn't even work very well because WN won't interline.

That was going to be my theory, but insert UA in place of WN. In the last few months when I've been booking tickets with either the origin or destination (not both) being served by F9, on the major search engines (Kayak, Orbitz, Expedia, etc.), very often flights are popping up as "Multiple Airline" with F9 serving the segment they can to DEN and UA picking up the slack where F9 does not serve.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
The modern day gold rush continues.
*DL ISN-MSP NOV 0>1.2 DEC 0>1.9 JAN 0>1.9 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2 APR 0>2 MAY 0>2

No kidding. I was completely off on my assessment of DL picking up ISN. I figured after UA picked it up, there wouldn't be enough demand for DL as well. I guess I was wrong!  



SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10715 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UX JFK-MAD DEC 0.6>0.5 MAR 0.2>0.1 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0

Are they folding to oneworld ?


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7529 posts, RR: 28
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10694 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This stuff is probably not unexpected, but it's another 6 departures out of MEM.
DL MEM-GLH OCT 1.7>0.0 NOV 1.6>0 DEC 1.3>0 JAN 1.5>0 FEB 1.6>0 MAR 1.5>0 APR 1.6>0 MAY 1.6>0
DL MEM-PIB OCT 1.7>0 NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0
DL MEM-TUP OCT 1.7>0 NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.4>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0
DL MSL-TUP OCT 1.7>0.0 NOV 1.6>0 DEC 1.3>0 JAN 1.7>0 FEB 1.7>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

DL ATL-MEI OCT 1.9>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 1.8>0 JAN 2>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 1.9>0

These are all EAS markets where DL has wanted to get out of and are now transitioning to Silver Airways to operate via ATL and codeshare with DL.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10550 times:

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 2):
That was going to be my theory, but insert UA in place of WN.

Well, keep in mind that because WN is not in GDS it won't build with WN and UA is generally more expensive than WN, so the cheapest option (F9-DEN-WN) will not appear in Expedia/etc.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 4):
These are all EAS markets where DL has wanted to get out of and are now transitioning to Silver Airways to operate via ATL and codeshare with DL.

Sure, but it is still 6 flights out of MEM. I wonder where they will end up when the hacking is done.


User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10456 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 5):
Well, keep in mind that because WN is not in GDS it won't build with WN and UA is generally more expensive than WN, so the cheapest option (F9-DEN-WN) will not appear in Expedia/etc.

Very true, but how many people, if they even think of doing that, are going to go through the effort of booking two different tickets on two different airlines and still have to switch in DEN? Honestly, I'd have to be pretty desperate to save a few bucks to even want to try that, which goes back to your original comment about F9's apparent new strategy not working in DEN anymore.



SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22734 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10420 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This stuff is probably not unexpected, but it's another 6 departures out of MEM.

There's plenty of hacking going on at MEM, but this shift isn't really something we can put in the category of "hacking." These flights need to be on prop equipment, and they need the larger hub and larger local market ATL provides.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3056 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10333 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
F9 DEN-CAK JAN 1.2>0.4 FEB 1.0>0
*F9 DEN-PHL JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-PVU JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-SDF JAN 0.9>0.2 FEB 0.9>0
*F9 DEN-SMF JAN 1.1>0.4 FEB 0.9>0
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
I wonder if they are officially beginning a migration of the company out of Denver?

IMO it has very little to do with a migration out of DEN. As an outsider looking in; what I see is a diversification to a more business-leisure airline in DEN (The GSA city pairs program) and mostly leisure at MCO as a ULCC. (no GSA city pair awards from MCO) Hence a LCC in DEN and a ULCC at MCO.

ULCC is a airline specific term and not defined by the FAA thus in my mind they can be what they want to be where they want to be.



Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineStapleton From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 280 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10291 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
OK, here's my problem with this. DEN isn't MCO. I keep saying this.

No, Denver isn't MCO but Denver has something MCO lacks, other airline networks and a central location. This is one thing however that seems to be ignored. Connections don't have to be on Frontier to fill airplanes. It seems that they are the fare driver in most of these smaller markets and with the airbus they are operating an aircraft that has a much lower CASM than the CRJs they are often competing against. So they haul the person to Denver on the low fare and let the person find their best deal beyond. Maybe it's on Frontier, maybe it's not. It is interesting that they may actually increase their yield this way because often when they carry the person beyond Denver it is at a lower overall yeild than what they would get by just hauling the person to Denver and letting them buy the point to point beyond separately.

It will be interesting to see if this works but they are actually less of a "network" threat when they don't have as much of a network. In Great Falls this summer they often had the lowest fare because United didn't always match. United didn't need to because of their network and probably didn't want to because it was a CRJ.


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5363 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 10004 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AS SAN-SJD MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2

Interesting. A couple of factors at play here: NK is entering the market in November but the timing indicates a fairly slow reaction from AS to the competition. The other part of the timing is Spring break.

For a lot of this year, AS has run more than daily service in the market but never as high as double daily. Also, for several years, AM and AS both ran a daily frequency between SAN and SJC so there was apparently enough traffic to support them both. A few years ago, AM left town and AS has had the route to themselves... until November.

Finally, I might even allow myself to think that perhaps there will be some new routes to and from SAN on AS to help feed additional connections to Cabo...

This increase is not that big a surprise to me, except that it took so long for AS to react to these considerations.

bb


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 9735 times:

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 6):
Very true, but how many people, if they even think of doing that, are going to go through the effort of booking two different tickets on two different airlines and still have to switch in DEN?
Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 6):
which goes back to your original comment about F9's apparent new strategy not working in DEN anymore.

I'm saying that it is probably pretty few, although people have done it with ZK for years in DEN.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 7):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This stuff is probably not unexpected, but it's another 6 departures out of MEM.

There's plenty of hacking going on at MEM, but this shift isn't really something we can put in the category of "hacking." These flights need to be on prop equipment, and they need the larger hub and larger local market ATL provides.

6 flights is 6 flights. You can say these smaller planes in EAS markets don't matter, but in MEM everything counts. They provided a few more connecting passengers to support other things that are now lost.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 8):
IMO it has very little to do with a migration out of DEN. As an outsider looking in; what I see is a diversification to a more business-leisure airline in DEN

Well, I think it's a migration from being a hub carrier in DEN to attempting to run something like G4 does at AZA which is probably going to be much smaller. That's pretty obviously the plan. To say that is moving toward being a business-anything airline is pretty crazy. They were a business-lesiure airline before. They are moving toward all leisure. Going to non-daily on routes is a great example of that. Non-daily service automatically means leisure only. Business people aren't on those flights unless they are going to a convention in Vegas which is quasi-leisure too.

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 9):
No, Denver isn't MCO but Denver has something MCO lacks, other airline networks and a central location. This is one thing however that seems to be ignored. Connections don't have to be on Frontier to fill airplanes.

Well, I mentioned that above. They can interline to UA which will be sum of locals pricing which is generally uncompetitive. WN won't interline with them so you'd need to exit security and re-check in. That's fairly unlikely.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 10):
Interesting. A couple of factors at play here: NK is entering the market in November but the timing indicates a fairly slow reaction from AS to the competition. The other part of the timing is Spring break.

It's too much service. Something will drop. NK, probably. They cut and run at the drop of a hat which AS is counting on.


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7529 posts, RR: 28
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 9575 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
6 flights is 6 flights. You can say these smaller planes in EAS markets don't matter, but in MEM everything counts. They provided a few more connecting passengers to support other things that are now lost.

No one is debating that, however DL announced its intentions of exiting these EAS markets over a year ago, in July 2011 so it really is not a surprise to anyone. Actually it is more of a surprise as to how long it took to rebid and find suitable replacement air service in these market.

Their fate was sealed the moment DL decided to pull-down the Saab fleet early.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 9416 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 6):
Honestly, I'd have to be pretty desperate to save a few bucks to even want to try that, which goes back to your original comment about F9's apparent new strategy not working in DEN anymore.

The only solid evidence we have - so far - that the new CEO's strategy is working is Q2, when Frontier was the largest contributor to the Republic profit.

One quarter doesn't make a turnaround, but it is a spectacular leap to say his strategy isn't working.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3056 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9367 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
They are moving toward all leisure. Going to non-daily on routes is a great example of that. Non-daily service automatically means leisure only.

Not in my book. You can certainly be business and be less than daily. It may not be the standard 40 hour week; but its still business. I think about the oil boom in North Dakota where F9 operates LTD (less than daily) service from DEN.
How many leisure travelers really want to fly to North Dakota? I've drove across ND in the Summer time there isn't much their. I have yet to see any MCO-North Dakota service, so who is F9 catering too?

In the Gulf of Mexico most of the oil companies shuttle teams out to their rigs in two weeks or month shifts with two weeks off. Same with barge companies on America's waterways. Construction would be another were journeyman contractors migrate from job site to job site.



Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9369 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 13):
One quarter doesn't make a turnaround, but it is a spectacular leap to say his strategy isn't working.


No one said F9's strategy isn't working. The comments were specifically referenced to DEN possibly not being the ideal place for this new G4 type strategy.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
The management is trying to turn them into Allegiant and it might work, but DEN is proving more and more incompatible with the concept.
Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 6):
which goes back to your original comment about F9's apparent new strategy not working in DEN anymore.



SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9348 times:

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 12):
No one is debating that, however DL announced its intentions of exiting these EAS markets over a year ago, in July 2011 so it really is not a surprise to anyone. Actually it is more of a surprise as to how long it took to rebid and find suitable replacement air service in these market.

Their fate was sealed the moment DL decided to pull-down the Saab fleet early.

I'd argue their relevance has increased since then because 6 flights is now a much larger % of DL's MEM operation than it was when it was announced.

Quoting mariner (Reply 13):
One quarter doesn't make a turnaround, but it is a spectacular leap to say his strategy isn't working.

I think the strategy is pretty incompatible with a "hub" in Denver and they are showing their cards. One must wonder how 3Q must be going for F9 to be keen on dumping so many markets. Bottom line, they need a full year profit of more than a few bucks. They may get that. The comparison of Republic to F9 profits is not apples to apples because Republic moved the losing E190 operation off the F9 side of the ledger. When the feed from those flights disappears (which we are watching right before us) it will be interesting to see what the impact is.

I would also argue that if the ULCC path leads them away from being an airline with a DEN hub then they really aren't the same airline any longer and are essentially a new creation copycatting Allegiant.


User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9329 times:

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 14):
How many leisure travelers really want to fly to North Dakota? I've drove across ND in the Summer time there isn't much their. I have yet to see any MCO-North Dakota service, so who is F9 catering too?

How about the leisure travelers trying to get out of North Dakota?

Oh, and there may be no MCO service, but G4 serves both GFK and FAR with service to SFB.



SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9304 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 15):
No one said F9's strategy isn't working. The comments were specifically referenced to DEN possibly not being the ideal place for this new G4 type strategy.

More than 80% of Frontier's business is at DEN (more in Q2), so, again, it is a spectacular leap to say that it isn't working.

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I think the strategy is pretty incompatible with a "hub" in Denver and they are showing their cards.

But you've developed so many Doom Scenarios for Frontier over the years, I lose track. I'm still waiting for United to be revealed as the force behind Republic's purchase of Frontier - as you claimed.

I think what the new CEO is doing is what Frontier should have done when Southwest first announced DEN - and I am pleased to see it - but nothing I say will persuade you, so I won't try.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22734 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9261 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I'd argue their relevance has increased since then because 6 flights is now a much larger % of DL's MEM operation than it was when it was announced.

But what percentage of passengers was it?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4137 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9197 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WG FLL-YQB DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.1
WG FLL-YUL DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.6 FEB 0>0.6 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.1
WG FLL-MAR 0>0.5 APR 0>0.4
WG LAS-MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3
WG MCO-YHZ FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.1 APR 0>0.1
WG MCO-MAR 0>0.2
WG MCO-MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.3
WG PIE-MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.2

I would like to know who is WG in this respect, and if your referring to WestJet the code is WS.

[Edited 2012-09-18 12:37:00]


Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4037 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9186 times:

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 9):
No, Denver isn't MCO but Denver has something MCO lacks, other airline networks and a central location. This is one thing however that seems to be ignored. Connections don't have to be on Frontier to fill airplanes.

Why doesn't F9 try to be the Mountain West AS and start codesharing with, say, AA who is weak in the area? Or are there not enough markets in the region for that to be worth doing?


User currently onlinesteex From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 1610 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9166 times:

Quoting brilondon (Reply 20):
I would like to know who is WG in this respect, and if your referring to WestJet the code is WS.

WG would be Sunwing, not WestJet.


User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3056 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 9040 times:

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 17):
How about the leisure travelers trying to get out of North Dakota?

I wasn't questioning existing leisure travel or who flies it. It sounds like G4 has found a niche between North Dakota and Orlando. G4 to my understanding does not consider itself an airline but rather a travel company. Truly a leisure company.

Every city has business-leisure or leisure-business traffic. My response to enilria was to squash the insanity that F9 is a leisure airline because they fly LTD service. It is not. Just as F9 is not WN. F9 is not G4 either. I think many get too caught up or put their own spin on what they think ULCC is or should be. I've searched quite extensively for a definition which appears to be airline specific term which as of yet has not been defined or recognized by the federal regulators.



Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 8978 times:

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 8):
IMO it has very little to do with a migration out of DEN.

  

It looks to me as if they discontinued a few routes with 1 or less than daily service. I don't see this as an indication of a migration out of DEN. Of the cities discontinued, PHL is the only major destination axed. PVU, SDF, SMF are hardly destinations to be concerned about.

[Edited 2012-09-18 13:45:42]

25 brilondon : Yeah, I just realized that now and can't change it.
26 SANFan : Interesting post. SMF-DEN is currently op'd at 3x daily (all A319s), 3x the service that PHL (the "major" destination) sees. I'm not saying that SMF,
27 airliner371 : I want to know when we are going to get fees like carry on bags etc... If and when things like that start coming into affect, Denver will really star
28 PSU.DTW.SCE : Flights that has 20-50% LF on Saab 340s that DL announced intentions to get out off over a year ago. Now likely even worse with CRJ and tag-on servic
29 Post contains images Cubsrule : I expect a lot of those flights were going out with single digit passenger counts on many if not most frequencies.
30 Post contains images PHX787 : Tijuana to SAN takes 2 hours to get through the border
31 mariner : And a year before that it was the other way around. Still, I wouldn't cll a $50 million dollar turnaround to a $14 million (Frontier) Q2 profit chopp
32 MaverickM11 : I'd say so far ULCC and hubs are mutually exclusive, as we've seen w/ NK, FR, Air Asia's affiliates, and now F9
33 EricR : Not according to the fall schedules/winter schedules. For example, F9 is down to 1 daily on PHL & SDF starting next month.
34 Post contains links mariner : I've posted this in another thread, but I may as well post it here. The airport fees at SMF have more than doubled, at least for Southwest - I assume
35 enilria : I didn't say they would go out of business. I said they won't find a buyer (unless UA/WN do it) which virtually all of Wall Street agrees...you can r
36 mariner : If Motley Fool is your source on anything to do with Frontier, then I can only do as you do, and shrug. Um - during all its consistently profitable y
37 Post contains images MaverickM11 : So did UA's exit from bankruptcy, as well as DL and NW later. Also, F9's LAX hub NK and G4 are both 90+% local, and WN has an almost 30 year head sta
38 mariner : As well as the start of the oil price rise. I recall Frontier's Sean Menke was the first airline officer to warn about that in December 2003. It rema
39 HPRamper : Was Frontier not profitable when they had the Lynx CRJs and/or Q400s?
40 mariner : Not consistently. Almost always in summer, but not necessarily in winter, especially Q1. mariner
41 Kcrwflyer : Depending on how they do things, that rate could increase with every decrease in service...
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
OAG Changes 5/11/2012: DL/F9/UA/US posted Thu May 10 2012 06:22:31 by enilria
OAG Changes 9/14/2012:DL/UA/US posted Mon Sep 10 2012 20:13:23 by enilria
OAG Changes 6/29/2012: DL/LH/NK/UA posted Wed Jun 27 2012 07:52:09 by enilria
OAG Changes 9/9/2011: CO/DL/F9/FL/UA/US posted Wed Sep 7 2011 06:24:36 by enilria
OAG Changes 7/3/09: AA/DL/F9/NW/UA posted Thu Jul 2 2009 17:18:00 by Enilria
OAG Changes 6/15/2012: AA/G4/UA/WN posted Wed Jun 13 2012 06:54:48 by enilria
OAG Changes 4/20/2012: AA/FL/UA posted Thu Apr 19 2012 06:03:46 by enilria
OAG Changes 8/24/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US posted Tue Aug 21 2012 16:32:04 by enilria
OAG Changes 8/20/2012: AC/DL/F9/UA posted Tue Aug 7 2012 06:25:50 by enilria
OAG Changes 3/30/2012: AA/DL/F9/UA/US posted Tue Mar 27 2012 09:58:59 by enilria