Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Would Airbus Have Made The A380 If EK Didn't Buy?  
User currently onlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3651 posts, RR: 12
Posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5978 times:

I doubt it. Because even tough AF, LH, SQ and QF were among the early customers to first show an interest for the A380 already in 2000 when the then project was still called A3XX, managers at Airbus would have thought it would not be profitable to build it. EK has ordered many more than any other airline, so imagine how many less orders Airbus would have received if EK said no. I don't think the A3XX project would have been profitable. I thought of this after reading the other thread about EK ordering more A380s.

Ben Soriano


Ben Soriano
13 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29689 posts, RR: 84
Reply 1, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5950 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

EK was a "bit player" when it came to the A380 at the time Airbus launched the program. They're now the dominant customer for the type, but that took over a decade after the program was already in play.

EK was the first customer to announce an order for the model (though the sixth to firm an order), however they only ordered 5 passenger models and 2 freighters. Compare this to AF (10), SQ (10), QF (12) and ILFC (10). VS also had ordered 6 and I expect Airbus knew they had the FX order (10) when they formally launched the program in December 2000.

EK did not place their second order until November 2001, and they only took 15. They then added another 22 in June 2003, which almost matched the 15 LH added in December 2001 and 6 MH added in January 2003. Emirates did not place their next order until April of 2006, and that was just a conversion of two A380-800Fs to the A380-800. They added a total of 15 (across three orders) in 2007 and it was not until June of 2010 did EK place another large order - for 32.

EK may be the airline that makes the A380 program profitable, but they had little impact, IMO, on launching the program in the first place.

[Edited 2012-09-30 09:00:35]

User currently offlineBlueshamu330s From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 2788 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5898 times:

Of course they would, and the customer base would have been alot broader than it is today.

Instead, some airlines which would have bought in respectable numbers are seeing their customer base slowly leaking away to Emirates and so can not justify the A380 in their fleet.

You seem to overlook the fact that the A380 is potentially a 40+ year project. I've no doubt the A380 was going to be built, with or without Emirates.

Rgds



So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
User currently offlineEK413 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 4684 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 4272 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):

Let's not forget to officially launch the A380 program Airbus required 50 firm ordered...

EK413



Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1449 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4018 times:

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 2):
You seem to overlook the fact that the A380 is potentially a 40+ year project. I've no doubt the A380 was going to be built, with or without Emirates.

I think this is key - given the massive resources and clout expended on the program, even from the A3XX days, the bar to officially launch was probably lower than you might think given the long view that Airbus was taking. As said above, EK may well put the 380 into the black for Airbus That could end up being more significant than a key initial order. But EK alone was probably not the green light for the 380. I would point to the numerous programs over the years where initial models sold quite poorly when compared to later derivatives as to the releative significance of initial orders for a type.


User currently offlineairfrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2822 posts, RR: 42
Reply 5, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3876 times:

EK has bailed Airbus out of the debacle, but not out of profitability. EK's ability to raise cheap capital, and it's tax haven status allows it to be more aggressive then other carriers, and has masked the complete failure of several ideal early targets - the US carriers (where around half of world wide capacity lives) and the Japanese carriers.

That being said, while we are thinking of hypotheticals, I don't think there is any way in the world Airbus would have built the A380 if they knew then what they know now. I say this not to rag on the plane - I fly trans-pacific all the time, and prefer to fly on a A380, but from a pure market perspective. It's simply not their.
But it could be worse. They could be boeing with the 747-8i.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1449 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3699 times:

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 6):
It's simply not their.
But it could be worse. They could be boeing with the 747-8i.

This is where the "40 year program" comes in. The market for the A380, I would argue at least, is still not fully mature yet. We have statements from several aviation folks that they are eagerly awaiting a -900 version, and there are some rumors of an "-800LR" variant from time to time. It has even been said on here that the -900 may be the real killer model. All of that is conjecture at this point, but it is definitely a bit early to be saying the market isn't there for the A380.

Regarding the 748, the pax variants are gravy for Boeing to help flesh out the line. The investment was relatively minimal, and all the better if they make a few bucks while keeping a handful of orders from Airbus. Plus, if there really does turn out to be a sizable market just under the A380, they could sell a decent number of 748i's. Not a bad spot to be in.


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9838 posts, RR: 96
Reply 7, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3481 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting American 767 (Thread starter):
I doubt it. Because even tough AF, LH, SQ and QF were among the early customers to first show an interest for the A380 already in 2000 when the then project was still called A3XX, managers at Airbus would have thought it would not be profitable to build it. EK has ordered many more than any other airline, so imagine how many less orders Airbus would have received if EK said no.

As Stitch points out, EK were only 7 of the 50 frames required to secure launch. From memory, the order which finally caused the launch to take place was VS (ironically perhaps)

As for Airbus having less orders without EK, one of the issues the huge EK demand places on the A380 supply is that no-one else can get hold of one, even if they want to. This is particularly so in light of the issues Airbus have had in ramping up production. The plane is pretty much sold out until 2018 at current rate already.

IMO we don't really know what other airlines might or might not have done without EK.

Rgds


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 8, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3436 times:

An even deeper question is whether Airbus would have launched the A380 in 2000 if they knew that twelve years later the order book would stand at 257 units.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29689 posts, RR: 84
Reply 9, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3080 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting incitatus (Reply 9):
An even deeper question is whether Airbus would have launched the A380 in 2000 if they knew that twelve years later the order book would stand at 257 units.

Why wouldn't they have? That was their original initial "break-even" projection.


User currently offlineMortyman From Norway, joined Aug 2006, 3701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2813 times:

Was'nt there talk of a Airbus 380 1000 version at one point too ?

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29689 posts, RR: 84
Reply 11, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks ago) and read 2666 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 11):
Was'nt there talk of a Airbus 380 1000 version at one point too?

Steven Udvar-Hazy mumbled something about it, once, but like the 787-11 and 787-12, the A380-1000 will likely only be concepts here on a.net.  


User currently offlineneutrino From Singapore, joined May 2012, 588 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks ago) and read 2401 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Why wouldn't they have? That was their original initial "break-even" projection.

250 yes, but surely not in 12 years?



Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29689 posts, RR: 84
Reply 13, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2350 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting neutrino (Reply 14):
250 yes, but surely not in 12 years?

I am sure they didn't expect them to take 12 years to sell that many and if the program had tracked to plan I am confident that it would not have taken 12 years to sell that many and that after 12 years they'd have a fair bit more than 257 sales.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Could Airbus Have Used The Beluga Frame For A380? posted Sat May 3 2003 23:05:40 by JBLUA320
Would AA Have Bought The MD-90? posted Thu Aug 26 2010 13:45:29 by tsugambler
Should Airbus Have Built The "A325" Instead? posted Tue Jul 10 2007 13:19:28 by MBJ2000
What Is Airbus Doing To The A380?!? posted Fri Dec 8 2006 09:11:28 by Baron95
Airbus Has Begun The A380’s Flutter-test Campaign posted Tue Aug 16 2005 16:03:36 by Keesje
Airlines Who Have Ordered The A380 posted Fri Jan 21 2005 21:31:45 by Thrust
If It Wasn't For The A380 Where Would Airbus Be? posted Wed Jun 28 2006 16:49:57 by Art
Competitor To The Airbus A380... If It Happened.. posted Thu Dec 10 2009 20:02:15 by DariusBieber
If BA Buy The A380 How Many Seats? posted Fri Dec 29 2006 21:55:18 by Bongodog1964
Would The ERJ 145 Have Made It? posted Fri Sep 1 2006 19:27:18 by 71Zulu